Jimboozie
Footballguy
I've been debating back and forth for the last two weeks myself, since I have the 6th pick and the genius owner in the 5 hole always takes a QB in the first.
While I don't think you can go wrong with either, I've decided Turner is my man.
Now, for my reasoning of Turner > Gore.
-Injury concerns: PUSH
They both have a little bit of concern and question marks. Overall, I'd say Gore is a little bit more of an injury risk (being he had two knee jobs) and that he misses two games a year nearly every year. With Turner, he missed nearly half a season after a heavy workload in 2008. However, both are healthy coming into 2010, so saying one is more injury prone than the other is just pure speculation.
-Schedule: Slight Adv Gore
The 49ers have arguably one of the softest schedules, being in the NFC West---or should i say, NFC Weak---offers favorable matchups, especially the Rams on Week 16 (Fantasy Championship week). On the flip side, the Falcons schedule is also favorable in terms of defenses and during the fantasy playoffs. Looking at the NFC South: The Saints games will be shootouts, Carolina was weak defensively last year and lost Julius Peppers; Tampa Bay is in rebuild mode.
-Competition for touches: Adv Turner
Do not underestimate Brian Westbrook. He's back, and ripped off a nice run in preseason game. Not to mention, he is a Singletary kind of guy, very high character and professional. They also drafted Dixon, who could steal goalline plunges. I think the 49ers want to limit Gore's touches a bit (not a full-blown RBBC, but don't be surprised if his touches to drop a bit). The big selling point of Gore over Turner (in PPR leagues), was that Gore catches a lot of balls while Turner couldn't catch a cold. However, bringing in one of the best pass-catching RBs of all-time has got to cut into Gore's quota.
Switching the focus to Turner, it's true, he has literally no receptions in his career. However, preseason reports are that both the coaching staff and Turner himself want to get him more involved as a receiver. This was evidenced in the preseason game #2 vs the Patriots. I saw him catch a couple of balls in one drive alone. Link: http://www.rtsports.com/football-draft-gui.../michael-turner
Thus, Gore's reception totals are in danger, while Turner's are seemingly going to flourish. No, I don't expect Turner to be a Westbrook type, but even 2-3 catches per game would be a huge value boost.
-Random thoughts
Look at Turner's numbers from last two seasons (when he was healthy). 27 TDs in 1.5 seasons, probably averaging over 100 yards a game (or close to it). Had he not gotten hurt, there would be zero chance that Turner would be available to you at the #6 pick. Going into last year's fantasy drafts, Turner was the consensus #2 pick behind Peterson. Nothing in his team situation or role has changed since then. The Falcons will continue to feed him the rock 20+ times a game. Ryan has another year of experience to help make defenses keep it honest.
In fact, Turner's 2009 injury may have been a blessing in disguise for his 2010 season. That's half a season less of hits and mileage on his body than if he played the full season. As reported, he is fully healthy now and in great shape. Overall, he has much less mileage on him than Gore does. Look at the career carries and receptions, it shouldn't be even close.
While the 49ers offensively do seem to be a team on the rise, I've never had much confidence in Alex Smith. If he were to regress, it could limit Gore's fantasy value. Thus, defenses could pay more attention to Gore, and there could be a lot less scoring opportunities for him, given that drives will stall out more frequently.
-Final thoughts,
While I may seem biased to Turner, let me tell you this has been a grueling, agonizing decision I've been trying to reach over the last couple of weeks. I've flip flopped more times than John Kerry, before finally settling upon the burner. Head over to NFL.com or youtube, search Michael Turner in the Highlights section. Watching the film, I felt a tingle---the guy is a flat out beast. He has amazing power combined with lightning fast speed, unlike many other RBs I've ever seen. While Gore is a very good talent and player himself, he doesn't quite have that awe factor that Turner possesses.
Both players are fine selections for your RB1, but upon close examination, Turner has emerged as the better choice in my eyes.
While I don't think you can go wrong with either, I've decided Turner is my man.
Now, for my reasoning of Turner > Gore.
-Injury concerns: PUSH
They both have a little bit of concern and question marks. Overall, I'd say Gore is a little bit more of an injury risk (being he had two knee jobs) and that he misses two games a year nearly every year. With Turner, he missed nearly half a season after a heavy workload in 2008. However, both are healthy coming into 2010, so saying one is more injury prone than the other is just pure speculation.
-Schedule: Slight Adv Gore
The 49ers have arguably one of the softest schedules, being in the NFC West---or should i say, NFC Weak---offers favorable matchups, especially the Rams on Week 16 (Fantasy Championship week). On the flip side, the Falcons schedule is also favorable in terms of defenses and during the fantasy playoffs. Looking at the NFC South: The Saints games will be shootouts, Carolina was weak defensively last year and lost Julius Peppers; Tampa Bay is in rebuild mode.
-Competition for touches: Adv Turner
Do not underestimate Brian Westbrook. He's back, and ripped off a nice run in preseason game. Not to mention, he is a Singletary kind of guy, very high character and professional. They also drafted Dixon, who could steal goalline plunges. I think the 49ers want to limit Gore's touches a bit (not a full-blown RBBC, but don't be surprised if his touches to drop a bit). The big selling point of Gore over Turner (in PPR leagues), was that Gore catches a lot of balls while Turner couldn't catch a cold. However, bringing in one of the best pass-catching RBs of all-time has got to cut into Gore's quota.
Switching the focus to Turner, it's true, he has literally no receptions in his career. However, preseason reports are that both the coaching staff and Turner himself want to get him more involved as a receiver. This was evidenced in the preseason game #2 vs the Patriots. I saw him catch a couple of balls in one drive alone. Link: http://www.rtsports.com/football-draft-gui.../michael-turner
Thus, Gore's reception totals are in danger, while Turner's are seemingly going to flourish. No, I don't expect Turner to be a Westbrook type, but even 2-3 catches per game would be a huge value boost.
-Random thoughts
Look at Turner's numbers from last two seasons (when he was healthy). 27 TDs in 1.5 seasons, probably averaging over 100 yards a game (or close to it). Had he not gotten hurt, there would be zero chance that Turner would be available to you at the #6 pick. Going into last year's fantasy drafts, Turner was the consensus #2 pick behind Peterson. Nothing in his team situation or role has changed since then. The Falcons will continue to feed him the rock 20+ times a game. Ryan has another year of experience to help make defenses keep it honest.
In fact, Turner's 2009 injury may have been a blessing in disguise for his 2010 season. That's half a season less of hits and mileage on his body than if he played the full season. As reported, he is fully healthy now and in great shape. Overall, he has much less mileage on him than Gore does. Look at the career carries and receptions, it shouldn't be even close.
While the 49ers offensively do seem to be a team on the rise, I've never had much confidence in Alex Smith. If he were to regress, it could limit Gore's fantasy value. Thus, defenses could pay more attention to Gore, and there could be a lot less scoring opportunities for him, given that drives will stall out more frequently.
-Final thoughts,
While I may seem biased to Turner, let me tell you this has been a grueling, agonizing decision I've been trying to reach over the last couple of weeks. I've flip flopped more times than John Kerry, before finally settling upon the burner. Head over to NFL.com or youtube, search Michael Turner in the Highlights section. Watching the film, I felt a tingle---the guy is a flat out beast. He has amazing power combined with lightning fast speed, unlike many other RBs I've ever seen. While Gore is a very good talent and player himself, he doesn't quite have that awe factor that Turner possesses.
Both players are fine selections for your RB1, but upon close examination, Turner has emerged as the better choice in my eyes.
And its not even close. Westbrook poses no threat to Gores touches. He is there simply as insurance due to Dixon's inexperience.
If my Aunt had balls.
