not my write up, just passing one along:
Saturday April 17th will be a day in which three titles will be on the line in Strikeforce's Middleweight, Light Heavyweight, and Lightweight divisions! This card has been on everyone's mind as well as my own. The talent is stacked from top to bottom and is one of the best cards we have seen so far this year. The names are already established in Mixed Martial Arts and this is just one more fight on all of their ways to greatness. The fights will include the number one Lightweight in the world, Shinya Aoki taking on Strikeforce standout Gilbert Melendez.Also on the card will be Dan Henderson vs Jake Shields, and Muhammad Lawal vs Gegard Mousasi. This card is guaranteed to be a show stopper, so I hope everyone get's ready for a pivotal moment in Mixed Martial Arts history.
Dan Henderson vs Jake Shields:
The odds - Dan Henderson (25-7) -395 vs. Jake Shields (24-4-1) +295
A matchup where Dan Henderson is favored and with good reason. Hendo is a former PRIDE Middleweight (205) and Welterweight (185) Champion holding both titles at the same time. Dan holds wins over notable names like Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, Wanderlei Silva, Vitor Belfort, and has proven himself against MMA's finest time and time again. Dan's known for his knockout power and his amazing wrestling. He has represented the U.S.A. in the 1992 and 1996 Olympic games under Greco-Roman wrestling.
Jake Shields is no slouch himself either. He holds notable wins over Hayato "Mach" Sakurai, Robbie Lawlor, Jason "Mayhem" Miller, Paul Daley and even Yushin Okami. Being a natural 170 lb fighter, ever since moving up to Middleweight Shields has show he can indeed hang with anyone and he has the grappling credentials to prove it. He's a Black Belt under Cesar Gracie, qualified for U.S.A./ Fila Nationals and World Team Trials in both the junior and university men's divisions. He is also a two time All American wrestler from Cuesta College.
Two fighters on the feet and only one logical outcome, Henderson by knockout. Shields has never proven to be powerful on the feet. He has decent boxing and movement as a whole, but it's all used for him to take his opponent down and utilize his ground game. Henderson lately falling in love with his right hand and using it relatively effectively has shown that if you can't knocked Hendo out, it's a matter of time before you go to sleep. I have a feeling that Henderson will be counter punching against Shields and will walk away with the decision or(T)KO victory.
If this fight makes it to the canvas it won't be with Shields on top. Henderson has one of the best clinch games in Mixed Martial arts and has rarely been taken down. With Jake Shields showing problems in taking down guys like Paul Daley, I'm inclined to believe Hendo will dictate where the fight goes and it will be Shields on his back when it get's there. Shields is a viable grappler off of his back, as a Cesar Gracie Black Belt he has to be. However, due to Henderson's ever inspiring control game from the top, I don't see what Shields can do.
Prediciton: Dan Henderson, Unanimous Decision after 5 rounds
Gegard Mousasi vs Muhammad Lawl:
The odds - Gegard Mousasi (28-2-1) -275 vs. Muhammed "King Mo" Lawal (6-0) +215
Some may call this a mismatch, I however see it as an opportuniy for King Mo. Mousasi is an absolute phenom and has shown it since his debute in the DREAM Middleweight Grand Prix in 2007. With wins over Remeau Thierry Sokoudjou, Renato Sobral, Melvin Manhoef, Dong Sik Yoon, Denis Kang, Ronaldo Souza, Evangelista Santos and even Hector Lombard, it's easy to see why he is the favorite. All of these opponents are tough as nails and are great additions to anyones resume. King Mo hasn't had the names on his resume, but he's show in every fight that he continues to improve. He has won 5 of his six fights be (T)KO and I firmly believe the only reason he isn't six for six is because he tore a ligament in his leg in his fight with Ryo Kawamura.
Exchanging in this fight could be everything for Mousasi. Gegard has used his kickboxing in K-1 and has defeated very solid opponents. King Mo has shown that he does have knockout power with good head and body movement. Mousasi has experience, and from what we have seen, technical superiority over King Mo. Don't be surprised if this ends up being a fast victory for the Dream Catcher, Gegard Mousasi.
Now, it get's interesting... Mousasi has shown to be extremely vulnerable to takedowns in the past. He's been put on his back from Jacare, Dong Sik Yoon, Melvin Manhoef, Sokoudjou and others. He has never shown to have a fantastic clinch game nor has he shown to be able to defend a double or single leg takedown. Three areas of the game where King Mo excels as one of the most accomplished wrestlers in Mixed Martial Arts today. King Mo can control and pound his way to a victory. Almost every time the fight has gone to the ground fighters have systematically dictated what happens to Mousasi. The only problem is, these fighters have made crucial mistakes where I believe King Mo will not. The ground game is the key factor in this fight for Mo.
Prediction: King Mo by (T)KO (Ground and Pound) round 3.
Shinya Aoki vs Gilbert Melendez:
The odds - Gilbert Melendez (17-2) -160 vs. Shinya Aoki (23-4) +130
A fight between two top 10 Lighweights and certainly one that wil come off as a surprise. Shinya Aoki is the number one Lightweight in the world with a resume to back it up. Since 2007 Aoki has reeled off seven straight wins at Lightweight and all of his opponents are credible victories and reasons as to why Aoki can win this match. His wins include Eddie Alvarez, JZ Cavalcante, Caol Uno, Joachim Hansen, Katsuhiko Nagata, and Mizuto Hirota. Melendez is so slouch himself with victories over Mitsuhiro Ishida, Clay Guida, Josh Thomson, and Tatsuya Kawajiri. This fight is definitely one for the top dog at Lightweight in Mixed Martial Arts.
If you looked at their physical appearances, one would tend to think Aoki would be out matched due to size and strength. The truth is, Aoki has proven the detractors wrong every time and continues to beat bigger and apparently better opponents. People tend to see Aoki as a one dimensional Jiu Jitsu player who can only win with his "magical submission pants." He won't be wearing them in his fight with Melendez. Reality is those pants don't do too much other than make Aoki stand out more than others. Aoki is not only a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, but also Judo. Not just any black belt under those two disciplines either. He is a black belt under no other than Yuki Nakai!
Gilbert Melendez does not have the grappling lineage or prestige of Aoki as of this point, although he is very good and accomplished in his own right. He was a wrestler for Santa Ana High School which has one of the best high school wrestling programs in the country. He is also a purple belt under Cesar Gracie, not one to be taken lightly either. He has proven to be solid in all facets of the fight game, but will he it be enough for the Tobikan Judanza?
Standing up, this fight will be a bit awkward as all of Aoki's fights are. He tends not to stand and trade, he understand his best bet is on the ground and is ever so clever in getting it there. I feel that Gilbert can knockout Aoki on the feet, but I don't think it's going to happen. I feel we will see a fight like JZ Cavalcante vs Aoki II. Aoki will clinch with Melendez and work like an octopus to get hooks and an advantage to wear Gilbert down. Melendez will be on his fight for a fight like he's never been before.
The ground game is exactly what plays into Aoki's cards this time around. With no elbows or knees to a downed opponent, Aoki can utilitze his methodical and majestic ground game to submit Melendez. Although never being submitted, Melendez has not fought a submission specialist like Aoki before in his career. I've been told by many that Aoki doesn't have the wrestling to keep Melendez down or take him down. The problem with that argument is that Aoki rarely uses wrestling at all. He's so smart he finds ways to take you down with trips or wearing you down by clinching you. Another rebuttle I have is this, if Katsuhiko Nagata (one of if not the best wrestler at Lighweight) can't keep Aoki down or dictate what he does, what chances does Gilbert Melendez have? Gilbert is not an Olympic Silver Medalist. Even though his wrestling is promising, I feel Cavalcante had a better overall wrestling game to beat Aoki and even then he failed to do so. I'm not saying Gilbert can't win this fight because JZ didn't. I'm just expressing how I feel Melendez is not as dominant in the ground game as Gesias Cavalcante is.
Cardio will play a huge factor in this fight, I just don't think it's going to matter because it's going to be a slow methodical grappling match that will disappoint some, but educate many.
Prediction: Shinya Aoki, Submission round 4.
Recap picks:
Dan "Hendo" Henderson via Decision
Muhammad "King Mo" Lawal via TKO round 3
Shinya "Tobikan Judanza" Aoki via Submission round 4