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UFC wagering: no longer stuck with the old thread title. The window to change it is here! (2 Viewers)

You Penn guys are crazy. I think he probably won the first two rounds, but Edgar probably had a slight edge in the final three rounds due to things like Octagon control. And anyone who scores a round 10-10 might as well just say, "I don't have an opinion"; that doesn't happen in real life.I thought Edgar fought well enough, and the decision wasn't outrageous enough, that he deserves at least one title defense before having to fight Penn again. I watched Penn live in Memphis and thought he was scary good the whole fight, but he just looked a little slow in the later rounds last night. Give Edgar the #1 contender, give Penn the #2 guy, and they can have a rematch if they both win. Maybe Penn will win that easily, but he's going to have to change up his strategy a bit then (maybe actually listen to his corner?).
Edgar got a few shots in, but he looked far busier than he was. It worked for him.
I think that was huge. My buddy and I kept saying as much. Part of the criteria for judging is aggressiveness. So maybe that was busy passed off as aggressiveness. But it definitely worked.
 
from bloodyelbow.com:

Judge Douglas Crosby Explains Why He Thought Frankie Edgar Beat BJ Penn 50-45

Well, sort off... A lot of people felt that the scoring for the bout were unfair, and majority of the criticism was directed towards Judge Douglas Crosby's scorecards which, for some reason, had BJ Penn losing each and every round of the fight. Crosby decided to troll talk about the scoring in a UG thread he named "The JUDGING GENIUS returns from the Middle East".

Here's a compiled version of the dozens of comments he slowly posted on the UG:

So....Just returned from Abu Dhabi, and I haven't been in my duplex more than 20 minutes, when the Doorman calls me on the intercom in a state of panic.... Seems there are hundreds of moaning, howling ghouls in "RVCA" and "Prodigy/Hilo Boy" T-shirts surrounding the building like extras from "Zombieland"... And they're chanting "50/45!" over and over, and trying to push their way into the lobby..... Thank God the Father and Sonny Jesus none of them have the elevator key to my penthouse.....So I think I'm safe for awhile... Which gives me a little time to talk to you, my dear friends.

So I'm wondering.....Should I tell you how I scored Penn/Edgar, and why, right now, up front? But that seems kinda like the Pope or the King back in the day, just writing down what he wants to say, and having one of his burly churls nail it to the door of the church for everyone to read...It seems a bit...distant, a bit 'above it all', don'tcha think? Because God knows I have plenty to say and no shortage of burly churls; no dearth of hulking familiars to do my bidding have I....

Perhaps just announcing my presence is enough for now. Perhaps simply allowing some of you, my faithful friends and fellow MMA devotees, to say what YOU want to say is more....Democratic; more... Enlightened... A behaviour more consistent with a Progressive such as myself

After all, isn't that my job? Isn't it incumbent upon me, as a Judge, to make myself available for your criticism? If I take the plane ride, and get to the venue, and score the fights, I have a kind of....Contract with the fans; a contract that specifically allows you to criticize me. And I will be glad to defend the terms of that agreement, even if it means I have to take the weight sometimes... I knew this was coming as I scored the fight. I knew the inescapable inevitability of criticism was waiting back here. I saw the ride; and I bought a ticket

...

So allow me to cast up my accounts with you as equitably as possible, won't you? Interestingly, I've been slightly taken aback by the response my score for the Penn/Edgar fight has engendered...but not in the way (some of) you guys have responded....I kind of expected that. What's been surprising is how many people, at the event, in the hotel, at the airport, fighters, production staff, etc., have told me how glad they were that I scored the FIGHT, and not the FIGHTERS.

Are you guys with me on that, even just a little? Can you understand what I mean by that? May I also mention that I forgive you? For your anger, your insults, and your crassness? NOT all of you....You know who you are. Yes; YOU: Over there, with the purple Nikes on, waiting for the spaceship in the tail of comet to come take you to a world where everyone agrees with you....and YOU over there...the one who thinks his heroes never lose.... So yes, I forgive you. I started this thread knowing that a percentage of you would behave the way you have. I knew you would when I scored the fight as well. I forgave you then. And even as I forgave you, I prepared myself to defend your right to criticize me, and make myself available for that criticism. Isn't that something I kind of...started out by saying?

...

All of that being said..... I've mentioned numerous times on other threads that the scoring criteria exist for a reason, just like the 10-point "must" system exists for a reason; and that the scoring criteria are guidelines within which Judges arrive at a decision on a round-by-round basis. It is a Judge's obligation to interpret the fight and use the criteria as guidelines. But a fight is an observed event that does require interpretation, observation, wisdom. And, in my considered opinion, Edgar dictated the tone of the fight, successfully implemented and executed a strategy, landed better strikes, and basically outworked Penn.

And that is an interpretation by a ringside observer with an understanding and appreciation of MMA, who has Judged numerous (hundreds) of fights. I re-watched the fight in my hotel in Abu Dhabi and saw nothing that would influence me to score it any differently. I support and encourage your right to criticize my scoring. And I forgive you for your attacks of both a professional, and, regrettably, personal nature.

Well there you have it. It took him more than 12 pages of posting bizarre rants, slowly milking - and annoying - people before finally getting to the point where he gives out a vague explanation for scoring it the way that he did. I may not agree with it still, but according to him, Edgar landed the better strikes and outworked Penn for each and every round. It is also interesting to point out that the "cageside point-of-view" excuse got thrown out the window as Crosby firmly stands by his decision even after watching a replay of the bout.

HT: The UG

Update by Brent Brookhouse: From my piece on SB Nation about Crosby's rather lame defense of his scoring:

Somewhat predictably Crosby does fall back on the ambiguous and undefinable idea of "ring generalship" or "Octagon control" as a defense. He references "dictating tone" and "executing strategy" and "outworking Penn" when you will not find ideas such as strategy execution or workrate in the scoring guidelines. The idea that Edgar landed better shots is also completely absurd in the context of the early portion of the bout. Doug even goes as far as to wrap his explanation up with a good ol' fashioned argument from authority by using the fact that he has scored many fights to imply that he has scored this (or any) fight correctly.

There is much concern for me over the idea that Crosby feels it is the judges responsibility to interpret strategy execution. For example, while Edgar was clearly working on the idea that he wanted to get in and out with speed and try to pick a few points up with quick punches, Penn was using a counter-striking style that was using the moments when Edgar came in to counter with much more powerful shots of his own. Looking at the information we have available from the fight it is very clear that Penn was much more effective in his implementation of this strategy for at least the first two rounds.

 
And that is an interpretation by a ringside observer with an understanding and appreciation of MMA, who has Judged numerous (hundreds) of fights. I re-watched the fight in my hotel in Abu Dhabi and saw nothing that would influence me to score it any differently. I support and encourage your right to criticize my scoring. And I forgive you for your attacks of both a professional, and, regrettably, personal nature.
:facepalm:
 
Why are the lines for the Strikeforce Card not posted anywhere?
Yeah, I hate when they go through times where they only have 4-5 listed on the books. I was hoping today they would put the lines out, but my guess is maybe tomorrow, which sucks. in the meantime, this is nice to see for Frankie. It is a minute long video, but I was feeling bad for Frankie with all of the news about Silva and the judging, and nothing on Frankie having a good fight:

http://www.fightlinker.com/at-least-some-p...ut-frankies-win

 
modogg said:
Voice Of Reason said:
Why are the lines for the Strikeforce Card not posted anywhere?
Yeah, I hate when they go through times where they only have 4-5 listed on the books. I was hoping today they would put the lines out, but my guess is maybe tomorrow, which sucks. in the meantime, this is nice to see for Frankie. It is a minute long video, but I was feeling bad for Frankie with all of the news about Silva and the judging, and nothing on Frankie having a good fight:

http://www.fightlinker.com/at-least-some-p...ut-frankies-win
That video was awesome.
 
Strikeforce lines now open at Bookmaker:

Henderson -395/Shields +295

Mousasi -275/Lawal +215

Melendez -160/Aoki +130

Miller -1200/Stout +700

Gross. Probably just an action parlay of Henderson and Mousasi for me. I can't justify laying 4 to 1 on Henderson in his first fight in Strikeforce even though he's probably got the exact style needed to beat Shields. And Mouasi at -275 is a little steep for someone with the wrestling background of Mo Lawal...although I do like the fact that Mousasi has been training with GSP, and his grappling accumen could lead to sub attempts and/or sweeps against the far less experienced Lawal.

 
Strikeforce lines now open at Bookmaker:Henderson -395/Shields +295Mousasi -275/Lawal +215Melendez -160/Aoki +130Miller -1200/Stout +700Gross. Probably just an action parlay of Henderson and Mousasi for me. I can't justify laying 4 to 1 on Henderson in his first fight in Strikeforce even though he's probably got the exact style needed to beat Shields. And Mouasi at -275 is a little steep for someone with the wrestling background of Mo Lawal...although I do like the fact that Mousasi has been training with GSP, and his grappling accumen could lead to sub attempts and/or sweeps against the far less experienced Lawal.
These are some of the most uninviting MMA lines I have seen.
 
Strikeforce lines now open at Bookmaker:Henderson -395/Shields +295Mousasi -275/Lawal +215Melendez -160/Aoki +130Miller -1200/Stout +700Gross. Probably just an action parlay of Henderson and Mousasi for me. I can't justify laying 4 to 1 on Henderson in his first fight in Strikeforce even though he's probably got the exact style needed to beat Shields. And Mouasi at -275 is a little steep for someone with the wrestling background of Mo Lawal...although I do like the fact that Mousasi has been training with GSP, and his grappling accumen could lead to sub attempts and/or sweeps against the far less experienced Lawal.
A much more manageable -215 for Mousasi at Sportsbook. Bestfightodds had it listed at -180, which I'm assuming is what they opened it at and it's since gotten hit.I'm making a 1u play on Mousasi at -215. I expect the fight to hit the ground at some point as Lawal will pretty quickly realize he's not in Mousasi's realm standing up. However, I think Gegard's exceptional ground skills will allow him to get up rather quickly, or at least avoid damage before inevitably escaping, or reversing Mo. I'm not one for predictions, but I'm thinking Mousasi 2nd round TKO.
 
Ugh, surprisingly good job by the oddsmakers on making those lines.

I was hoping to get better odds on Gilbert, still think there probably is still value at -130 on Sportsbook.com.

At +350, I think there is value on Shields as well. Unless Hendo finishes him in the first 3 rounds, I Hendo's poor gas tank does him in and gets him subbed. Although Strikeforce would absolutely hate that result.

 
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Strikeforce lines now open at Bookmaker:Henderson -395/Shields +295Mousasi -275/Lawal +215Melendez -160/Aoki +130Miller -1200/Stout +700Gross. Probably just an action parlay of Henderson and Mousasi for me. I can't justify laying 4 to 1 on Henderson in his first fight in Strikeforce even though he's probably got the exact style needed to beat Shields. And Mouasi at -275 is a little steep for someone with the wrestling background of Mo Lawal...although I do like the fact that Mousasi has been training with GSP, and his grappling accumen could lead to sub attempts and/or sweeps against the far less experienced Lawal.
A much more manageable -215 for Mousasi at Sportsbook. Bestfightodds had it listed at -180, which I'm assuming is what they opened it at and it's since gotten hit.I'm making a 1u play on Mousasi at -215. I expect the fight to hit the ground at some point as Lawal will pretty quickly realize he's not in Mousasi's realm standing up. However, I think Gegard's exceptional ground skills will allow him to get up rather quickly, or at least avoid damage before inevitably escaping, or reversing Mo. I'm not one for predictions, but I'm thinking Mousasi 2nd round TKO.
I tagged along because I think Gegard wins this most of the time. I put down a little more then i wanted to (put down enough to win 1.66 units, usually base my bets on what i risk to lose, not what i will win), but if this line moves i have to think it will move in favor of King Mo. And I am contemplating Shields at +325, that is a pretty disrespectful number to put out there against Shields.Also, i may try Aoki at +115. I want to rewatch the Alvarez-Aoki fight to see how Eddie looked against Aoki. I would take Alvarez over Melendez (almsot a pure homer call there, but so be it)
 
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not my write up, just passing one along:

Saturday April 17th will be a day in which three titles will be on the line in Strikeforce's Middleweight, Light Heavyweight, and Lightweight divisions! This card has been on everyone's mind as well as my own. The talent is stacked from top to bottom and is one of the best cards we have seen so far this year. The names are already established in Mixed Martial Arts and this is just one more fight on all of their ways to greatness. The fights will include the number one Lightweight in the world, Shinya Aoki taking on Strikeforce standout Gilbert Melendez.Also on the card will be Dan Henderson vs Jake Shields, and Muhammad Lawal vs Gegard Mousasi. This card is guaranteed to be a show stopper, so I hope everyone get's ready for a pivotal moment in Mixed Martial Arts history.

Dan Henderson vs Jake Shields:

The odds - Dan Henderson (25-7) -395 vs. Jake Shields (24-4-1) +295

A matchup where Dan Henderson is favored and with good reason. Hendo is a former PRIDE Middleweight (205) and Welterweight (185) Champion holding both titles at the same time. Dan holds wins over notable names like Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, Wanderlei Silva, Vitor Belfort, and has proven himself against MMA's finest time and time again. Dan's known for his knockout power and his amazing wrestling. He has represented the U.S.A. in the 1992 and 1996 Olympic games under Greco-Roman wrestling.

Jake Shields is no slouch himself either. He holds notable wins over Hayato "Mach" Sakurai, Robbie Lawlor, Jason "Mayhem" Miller, Paul Daley and even Yushin Okami. Being a natural 170 lb fighter, ever since moving up to Middleweight Shields has show he can indeed hang with anyone and he has the grappling credentials to prove it. He's a Black Belt under Cesar Gracie, qualified for U.S.A./ Fila Nationals and World Team Trials in both the junior and university men's divisions. He is also a two time All American wrestler from Cuesta College.

Two fighters on the feet and only one logical outcome, Henderson by knockout. Shields has never proven to be powerful on the feet. He has decent boxing and movement as a whole, but it's all used for him to take his opponent down and utilize his ground game. Henderson lately falling in love with his right hand and using it relatively effectively has shown that if you can't knocked Hendo out, it's a matter of time before you go to sleep. I have a feeling that Henderson will be counter punching against Shields and will walk away with the decision or(T)KO victory.

If this fight makes it to the canvas it won't be with Shields on top. Henderson has one of the best clinch games in Mixed Martial arts and has rarely been taken down. With Jake Shields showing problems in taking down guys like Paul Daley, I'm inclined to believe Hendo will dictate where the fight goes and it will be Shields on his back when it get's there. Shields is a viable grappler off of his back, as a Cesar Gracie Black Belt he has to be. However, due to Henderson's ever inspiring control game from the top, I don't see what Shields can do.

Prediciton: Dan Henderson, Unanimous Decision after 5 rounds

Gegard Mousasi vs Muhammad Lawl:

The odds - Gegard Mousasi (28-2-1) -275 vs. Muhammed "King Mo" Lawal (6-0) +215

Some may call this a mismatch, I however see it as an opportuniy for King Mo. Mousasi is an absolute phenom and has shown it since his debute in the DREAM Middleweight Grand Prix in 2007. With wins over Remeau Thierry Sokoudjou, Renato Sobral, Melvin Manhoef, Dong Sik Yoon, Denis Kang, Ronaldo Souza, Evangelista Santos and even Hector Lombard, it's easy to see why he is the favorite. All of these opponents are tough as nails and are great additions to anyones resume. King Mo hasn't had the names on his resume, but he's show in every fight that he continues to improve. He has won 5 of his six fights be (T)KO and I firmly believe the only reason he isn't six for six is because he tore a ligament in his leg in his fight with Ryo Kawamura.

Exchanging in this fight could be everything for Mousasi. Gegard has used his kickboxing in K-1 and has defeated very solid opponents. King Mo has shown that he does have knockout power with good head and body movement. Mousasi has experience, and from what we have seen, technical superiority over King Mo. Don't be surprised if this ends up being a fast victory for the Dream Catcher, Gegard Mousasi.

Now, it get's interesting... Mousasi has shown to be extremely vulnerable to takedowns in the past. He's been put on his back from Jacare, Dong Sik Yoon, Melvin Manhoef, Sokoudjou and others. He has never shown to have a fantastic clinch game nor has he shown to be able to defend a double or single leg takedown. Three areas of the game where King Mo excels as one of the most accomplished wrestlers in Mixed Martial Arts today. King Mo can control and pound his way to a victory. Almost every time the fight has gone to the ground fighters have systematically dictated what happens to Mousasi. The only problem is, these fighters have made crucial mistakes where I believe King Mo will not. The ground game is the key factor in this fight for Mo.

Prediction: King Mo by (T)KO (Ground and Pound) round 3.

Shinya Aoki vs Gilbert Melendez:

The odds - Gilbert Melendez (17-2) -160 vs. Shinya Aoki (23-4) +130

A fight between two top 10 Lighweights and certainly one that wil come off as a surprise. Shinya Aoki is the number one Lightweight in the world with a resume to back it up. Since 2007 Aoki has reeled off seven straight wins at Lightweight and all of his opponents are credible victories and reasons as to why Aoki can win this match. His wins include Eddie Alvarez, JZ Cavalcante, Caol Uno, Joachim Hansen, Katsuhiko Nagata, and Mizuto Hirota. Melendez is so slouch himself with victories over Mitsuhiro Ishida, Clay Guida, Josh Thomson, and Tatsuya Kawajiri. This fight is definitely one for the top dog at Lightweight in Mixed Martial Arts.

If you looked at their physical appearances, one would tend to think Aoki would be out matched due to size and strength. The truth is, Aoki has proven the detractors wrong every time and continues to beat bigger and apparently better opponents. People tend to see Aoki as a one dimensional Jiu Jitsu player who can only win with his "magical submission pants." He won't be wearing them in his fight with Melendez. Reality is those pants don't do too much other than make Aoki stand out more than others. Aoki is not only a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, but also Judo. Not just any black belt under those two disciplines either. He is a black belt under no other than Yuki Nakai!

Gilbert Melendez does not have the grappling lineage or prestige of Aoki as of this point, although he is very good and accomplished in his own right. He was a wrestler for Santa Ana High School which has one of the best high school wrestling programs in the country. He is also a purple belt under Cesar Gracie, not one to be taken lightly either. He has proven to be solid in all facets of the fight game, but will he it be enough for the Tobikan Judanza?

Standing up, this fight will be a bit awkward as all of Aoki's fights are. He tends not to stand and trade, he understand his best bet is on the ground and is ever so clever in getting it there. I feel that Gilbert can knockout Aoki on the feet, but I don't think it's going to happen. I feel we will see a fight like JZ Cavalcante vs Aoki II. Aoki will clinch with Melendez and work like an octopus to get hooks and an advantage to wear Gilbert down. Melendez will be on his fight for a fight like he's never been before.

The ground game is exactly what plays into Aoki's cards this time around. With no elbows or knees to a downed opponent, Aoki can utilitze his methodical and majestic ground game to submit Melendez. Although never being submitted, Melendez has not fought a submission specialist like Aoki before in his career. I've been told by many that Aoki doesn't have the wrestling to keep Melendez down or take him down. The problem with that argument is that Aoki rarely uses wrestling at all. He's so smart he finds ways to take you down with trips or wearing you down by clinching you. Another rebuttle I have is this, if Katsuhiko Nagata (one of if not the best wrestler at Lighweight) can't keep Aoki down or dictate what he does, what chances does Gilbert Melendez have? Gilbert is not an Olympic Silver Medalist. Even though his wrestling is promising, I feel Cavalcante had a better overall wrestling game to beat Aoki and even then he failed to do so. I'm not saying Gilbert can't win this fight because JZ didn't. I'm just expressing how I feel Melendez is not as dominant in the ground game as Gesias Cavalcante is.

Cardio will play a huge factor in this fight, I just don't think it's going to matter because it's going to be a slow methodical grappling match that will disappoint some, but educate many.

Prediction: Shinya Aoki, Submission round 4.

Recap picks:

Dan "Hendo" Henderson via Decision

Muhammad "King Mo" Lawal via TKO round 3

Shinya "Tobikan Judanza" Aoki via Submission round 4

 
2 bets for the Bellator card tomorrow. Light bets:

Ryan Thomas +300 over Ben Askren

Shad Lierley +235 over Wilson Reis

Funny because I am a Reis fan, but Shad has the stuff needed to beat him

 
ugh, i think this is a little late, but odds are released for the WEC event. A lot of friggin' chalk, but i grabbed:

Aldo -240: :lmao: I heard it released earlier today at -200. Hope money comes in on Faber at some point, I think this is a good line where it is now.

Also see Henderson-Cerrone opened at -115 a piece. Interesting, I am tempted to grab Cerrone, but I need to look more into their last fight

hmm, they released some other one's too. Anderson Silva is -500 over Chael. Chuck Liddell is +105 to -135 for Rich Franklin. Also see Pat Berry is the underdog to a -145 Cro Cop favorite. Interesting stuff, i haven't thought about these fights yet

 
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Money coming in on King Mo. Surprising how many people are backing him. I am contemplating hedging down my Moussasi bet, but the line is moving the wrong way.

And I can't figure out why there is so much love for Hendo. I think that line is off, and Hendo is getting too much love. I agree he likely would win more then 50% of the time against Shields, but the arguments for him winning seem off to me. I hear people loving his stand-up, and I don't see it. He has a very dangerous right hook, but outside of that his stand-up isn't that crisp. Granted Shields does not have a dangerous anything in the stand-up, but i think he is quicker, and canhang standing for awhile is he just circles the correct way, unlike dopey Bisping. So hear are the picks, pretty much the night will rest on Gegard's shoulders:

Shields: .5 unit at +325

Moussasi: 3 units at -215

Aoki: .33 units at +130

Edit: funniest thing is that Shields may be the mostly costly guy for me in MMA. I am 0-4 betting against him, and will really dislike him more if we go 0-5

Edit2: Also heard a rumor that Hendo has an injury coming into the fight: http://www.mmafighting.com/2010/04/16/stri...le-preview-show (around 6:30 of the video). Stupid rumors had me over-zealous with Kim-Parisyan awhile ago, but i think Shields has more of a chance then the odds suggest tonight

 
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I just don't see it for Shields Mo. Horrible style matchup for him. Henderson's got some nice power in his standup, and Shields hates getting hate and has a very weak striking game. I don't see Shields being able to take Henderson down to work a sub, and it's very unlikely he'll be able to mount any offense from his back should Henderson chose to take him down. I jumped on Henderson at -350 when my local opened it for .5u.

While I love Mousasi, I'm not going to make a multi-unit play on him as Lawal does have a few paths to victory here. Ultimately, I think Mousasi's well-roundedness and experience will win him the fight, but I wouldn't be shocked if Lawal pulled off an upset here.

 
I just don't see it for Shields Mo. Horrible style matchup for him. Henderson's got some nice power in his standup, and Shields hates getting hate and has a very weak striking game. I don't see Shields being able to take Henderson down to work a sub, and it's very unlikely he'll be able to mount any offense from his back should Henderson chose to take him down. I jumped on Henderson at -350 when my local opened it for .5u.While I love Mousasi, I'm not going to make a multi-unit play on him as Lawal does have a few paths to victory here. Ultimately, I think Mousasi's well-roundedness and experience will win him the fight, but I wouldn't be shocked if Lawal pulled off an upset here.
I hear ya. I would like to buy out a bit on my Gegard bet, and I hope the line swings back to where it was before. If not, I'll likely ride it out. I have done alright lately, so a loss here will be dissapointing, but I have less at risk here then I did with Carwin and Munoz, and what I will have on Mittrione (speaking of which, the chance to arbitrage is great. Mittirone is now -115 and i got a lot of him at +160)As for Hendo, I agree his wrestling nagates a lot of Shields advantage, but I don't see much power in his stand-up outside of that right hook. I am not as familiar with hendo as I probably should be, but his stand-up is predictable and if Shields is smart and prepared for it, he should be able to avoid it. Hendo's set-up to land that right hook looks so predictable. I also think if this goes 5 rounds, the later rounds favor Shields. I am probably off with all of this, but i want to give Shields a chance to win me back some of the money he has cost me.And I just turned on a UFC Unleashed marathon. Watching the Jardine-Rampage fight makes me feel better about the loss i took with Jardine-Badar. I can't figure out Jardine out, but that fight was real close before the last minute of the fight.A rumor I heard is that Badar will be fighting Thiago Silva next. I hope that is the case, I will be on Silva quite a bit, and I hope that Badar gets a lot of love from the oddsmakers
 
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:lmao: :eek: :goodposting:

I thought the stupid Strikeforce show started at 10. missed hedging on Mousasi, and with Big Jon taking the point from Gegard, i think we're screwed. Pretty terrible fight, Mo did nothing to win that fight, except get takedowns which it seemed like Gegard was giving him. Mo looks like he was beat up good, but Gegard looks like he doeesn't want to be there.

A bit of chasing here, but Melendez for 1 unit . I never put the Aoki bet in, and i am hoping that Melendez and Shields can pull out some stops to help me avoid the 2nd losing MMA card in a row (I had 2 $25 bets on Bellator, waste of money).

 
modogg said:
As for Hendo, I agree his wrestling nagates a lot of Shields advantage, but I don't see much power in his stand-up outside of that right hook. I am not as familiar with hendo as I probably should be, but his stand-up is predictable and if Shields is smart and prepared for it, he should be able to avoid it. Hendo's set-up to land that right hook looks so predictable. I also think if this goes 5 rounds, the later rounds favor Shields. I am probably off with all of this, but i want to give Shields a chance to win me back some of the money he has cost me.
Fine it is a right cross, not a right hook. Still not sure that I would consider Hendo's striking a strength against most of the top 10 MW's in MMA
 
I generally agree that GayGuard should win this, but I'm not so confident that King Mo at +215 doesn't sound a little tempting.
Wish I had followed through on this.
I hear ya. I went only a little above .5 unit on Shields, when i thought he had a good chance to win this fight. If i would have had him at 1 unit, i could have pulled a pretty good night, instead of just about breaking even.Seeing Shields in the UFC will be good if he goes. Shields-GSP will be a legit fight
 
I have to say WOW :confused:

Heck of a fight coming up for UFC 118, and James Toney's 1st opponent:

Randy Couture vs. James Toney targeted for August's UFC 118 in Boston

In a match likely to re-ignite the "boxing vs. MMA" debate, a bout between 10-time UFC champion Randy Couture (18-10 MMA, 15-7 UFC) and former boxing champion James Toney (0-0 MMA, 0-0 UFC) is targeted for the UFC's first trip to Boston.

Fighters Only was the first to report the possibility of the pairing, and MMAjunkie.com (www.mmajunkie.com) today confirmed that while the matchup is far from official, it's in the works for a headlining spot at the event.

Although not officially announced, UFC 118 is expected to take place Aug. 28 at the TD Garden in Boston. Two high-profile lightweight fights are currently on tap for the Northeast event: newly minted champion Frankie Edgar fights the man he deposed for the belt, B.J. Penn, in an immediate rematch of their recent UFC 112 bout, and two-time contender Kenny Florian faces standout Gray Maynard.

The weight limit of Couture vs. Toney is currently undetermined. Couture is now two fights into a second stint as a light heavyweight, while Toney is primarily regarded as a heavyweight in the boxing world.

The position of Couture vs. Toney on UFC 118's card is also unknown at this time, though sources close to the event say it will likely take a headline or co-headline slot.

Toney, 41, won a UFC contract in early March after a protracted trash-talk campaign against UFC president Dana White and several mixed martial arts fighters. The former boxing champion sought the guidance of boxing and MMA coach Juanito Ibarra and at several points welcomed a fight with Couture (though he called out virtually every MMA star he could name).

Toney is currently training with Ibarra in Southern California as he prepares for his MMA debut.

you can read the rest here: http://mmajunkie.com/news/18852/randy-cout...8-in-boston.mma

I'm guessing the line opens at Randy -250. The thing is Randy loves his clinch boxing, and that is where most of his takedowns come from. I don't know if he'll shoot on Toney, but I also think if Toney can happen to land a shot it could be tough on Randy. Really not sure if it will be an utter domination by Randy, or if Toney can last long enough to land one shot.

 
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Can't imagine why randy would want to trade with this guy. Shot, takedown, control, GnP rd 1 victory for Couture.

But man. On the chance that Toney catches him with one on the way in and wins, the internet may not survive. I'd guess a higher line for Randy -- more like -400. If he's -250 I am in.

 
What do you guys like on this Faber/Aldo card?
I think the card is pretty sweet, and am going back and forth on whether i should purcahse it or not. I may go the internet route, but i wouild like to see WEC get some good PPV buys and have some success.as for wagering:

Aldo -240 for 2.5 units - Man I have been an Aldo nuthugger for awhile. So fun to watch, and this fight has potential for fight of the year

Takeya Mizugaki -130 for 1 unit

Anthony Njoukani +115 for 2 units - I came a little late on this one and missed the opening at +140. I have loved Njoukani for awhile, but he cost me a bit on his first fight in the WEC (I believe it was his first, all i know is first time i bet on him he lost) so i have been hesitent to lay money on him. This fight has the danger of lay and pray from Roller, but i hear that Njoukani has really trained hard, and Roller will be at a serious disadvantage standing.And i just remembered Anthony's loss was to Ben Henderson.

Jung +130 for .5 unit - Another good fight here, and Leonard Garcia is always dangerous, but you have to like the Korean Zombie

also forgot I have Karalexis +400 for .25 units. He should lose this, but that line was crazy off. Karalexis has been in enough wars the line should be closer to +200 for him or something

Best thing is they are showing prelims on Spike at 9. I am thinking they may talk me into buying the PPV then, but it will be good.

And I would love to hear people's thoughts on this card too. I'm not sure who will win Cerrone-Henderson. I think the Cowboy should win this, but Henderson has impressed me each time i have seen him. I think it is smart to stay away, but i could be talked into taking Ceronne

 
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I agree with modogg regarding Aldo, he's too dynamic to not finish Faber within 5 rounds. I was really impressed at how he approached the Mike Brown fight as he showed great skill at striking while staying out of range for takedown attempts.

Not sure about the Njoukani - Roller fight as I see Roller getting it to the ground and possibly getting a sub, but he seemingly gets tagged on the feet every fight and Njoukani can finish if it he tags Roller on the feet.

I agree with Jung. Leonard Garcia is great to watch, but he seemingly refuses to fight with any tactics or game plan, just windmilling haymakers at his opponents.

I go back and forth on Cerrone-Henderson. Although I typically favor the guy who is more likely to finish the fight in a 5 rounder, but I am leaning towards Henderson in this one. Cerrone's complete lack of wrestling will allow Henderson to control where the fight goes and allow Ben to steal rounds. I thought Cerrone should have won the first fight, but expected the judges to score it for Henderson. Sadly, if I knew who the judges were going to be for this fight, I'd be a lot more confident betting on one of these guys.

 
Do we know exactly which matches will be on Spike?
Garcia-Jung and Pettis-KaralexisAlso, I know they did a real cool thing last time they showed the prelims, and they fit a 3rd fight in because one of the fights ended in the 1st round. Definately :kicksrock:
 
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I like just about all those plays Mo. Edited out my comment about Karalexis, keep confusing him and Gamburyan.

Ended up on Aldo, Jung and Mizugaki for .5u each. Also have small parlays of Brown/Mizugaki/Jorgensen and Aldo, Brown, Jung and Mizugaki. At least I'll know early how my night will be since Mizugaki fights second.

ETA: Henderson/Cerrone:

So incredibly razor thing, I don't see how you could justify making a bet on either side. Best bet: sit back and watch what could be in contention for fight of the year (again) and enjoy it.

 
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Rollin with you guys tonight. I'm gonna go Hendo too.

Won a prelim too already (don't want to spoil it in case you guys aren't looking if they show it) so I'm gonna go Jung/Pettis parlay with those winnings for the spike card (and Jung on the side).

 
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ETA: Henderson/Cerrone:So incredibly razor thing, I don't see how you could justify making a bet on either side. Best bet: sit back and watch what could be in contention for fight of the year (again) and enjoy it.
Saw that hype from the last fight....maybe you are right.
 
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I didn't see a WEC thread, but I have to say these lightweights are always so exciting to watch. I can see the love of a Cro Crop tree trunk crashing on a guy's head, but these guys are so fast and quick and are so active in these fights, it is always fun to watch

 
not sure if this is against the new, ultra conservative FFA rules, but will innernet broadcasts be available on all the usual suspects? meaning Justin, Sopcast, tvu?

 
not sure if this is against the new, ultra conservative FFA rules, but will innernet broadcasts be available on all the usual suspects? meaning Justin, Sopcast, tvu?
Sopcast hasn't worked for the last few events. Always my first check tho...
really? damn, that was always my goto viewer. anywhere consistently have these now? Will take a PM if you dont want to postETA: How bout MyP2P? that was always pretty rock solid. havent tried to watch one of these online in about a year though and i know Dana and Zuffa have a bug up their ### about online bcasts
 
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thought the Korean Zombie should have taken the win, but that was a hell of a tough one to score
:goodposting: that is exactly it, I think Korean Zombie won it too with having the octagon control, and the Korean Zombie stalking him for most of the fight. But that was a tough one to score, and Garcia certainly looked good too. Hate losing money on it, but I don't feel as bad with such a great fight. I think they have to get a Fight of the Night bonus, even if there are some great fights coming up next. I know they said the bonuses for this card will be $65,000, and it has to be pretty much a guarantee for those 2. they had to boost the PPV buys for this card for some watching.
 

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