What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

UFC wagering: no longer stuck with the old thread title. The window to change it is here! (7 Viewers)

For the TUF finale, I like Hamil over Jardine and I may put something on Yager moves to about +130. Yager is a complete front runner, but rarely in MMA does the tide change and momentum switch, so I think if he can get the better of Anotinio early, he should win the fight. Even, then I'd rather a smaller wager.

What do you guys think about the WEC card? I'm liking Shalorus over Varner as Shalorus's wrestling pedigree is too good to not be able to put Varner on his back for at least 2 rounds, and I don't think Varner's guard game is good enough to sub, sweep, or get up.
I haven't looked into the WEC card too much. I think i may put a little on Grispi and Hominick. I know i have never like Varner, so i may join you for a little on Shalorus, i just don't know enough about him at this point
Just realized that I let me dislike for Varner influence my decision here. I made too many assumptions about Shalorus' game based on his resume' as an olympic wrestler. Having watched a few of his fights online since my last post, I learned that he's fallen too in love with his striking game, and I think Varner lights him up on the feet. He definitely has the ability to put Varner on his back and win a 3 round UD, but now I think Varner out boxes him as Shalorus tries to land bombs on the feet.
I think you might be right, but i already threw a little Shalorus' way. I know for myself, my dislike for Varner weigted in with me confirming the bet, but it is a small bet and Varner is an easy guy to dislike. The thing with this fight is if Shalorus comes in with a good game plan, and sticks to it he should win. But like you mentioned, i am guessing he won't and this is likely money down the drain. I also have:Grispi: .5 unit. Grispi is a guy who i think can become a force in the WEC. LC Davis is a good test for him, but Grispi has real slick submissions and his stand-up is much crisper

Hominick: .66 unit.

Cariaso: .55 unit tailing someone else here. I got Cariaso at +190, and it seems that this is a fight between 2 new prospects coming in.

 
Anyone know much about Diego Nunes? Assuncao is a pretty tough test based on Nunes previous opponents. Assuncao currently at -170
the guy at mmarating.net usually has some good write-ups for WEC events, this is his thought on Assuncao-Nunes:Nunes is a more technical striker than Assuncao, but Assuncao has serious toughness and power, which can go a long way in making up for that. Rafael is also an excellent grappler and all-around stud. Nunes is also much longer than Assuncao, who will exacerbate this problem by virtue of never really punching straight. This isn't an ideal style matchup for Assuncao, who will have to turn in a strong performance to justify his top ten ranking. He's a gamer and has the skills, so he should be able to find a way to win, be it by making the fight a brawl or getting Nunes to the ground and using his superior grappling. Rafael Assuncao by decision.

With so many cards as of late, I am behind with some of the guys on this card. I was hoping WEC would springboard off of the success of their first PPV (and the Gracia-Jung fight), but it seems that they did not. should be a good card like the WEC always has, but i wish there was a little more promotion for this card. I am guessing it is because of the busy MMA schedule as of late, but i wish the WEC could do more to promote their guys. Some good fighters on this card that people don't much about

 
For the TUF finale, I like Hamil over Jardine and I may put something on Yager moves to about +130. Yager is a complete front runner, but rarely in MMA does the tide change and momentum switch, so I think if he can get the better of Anotinio early, he should win the fight. Even, then I'd rather a smaller wager.

What do you guys think about the WEC card? I'm liking Shalorus over Varner as Shalorus's wrestling pedigree is too good to not be able to put Varner on his back for at least 2 rounds, and I don't think Varner's guard game is good enough to sub, sweep, or get up.
I haven't looked into the WEC card too much. I think i may put a little on Grispi and Hominick. I know i have never like Varner, so i may join you for a little on Shalorus, i just don't know enough about him at this point
Just realized that I let me dislike for Varner influence my decision here. I made too many assumptions about Shalorus' game based on his resume' as an olympic wrestler. Having watched a few of his fights online since my last post, I learned that he's fallen too in love with his striking game, and I think Varner lights him up on the feet. He definitely has the ability to put Varner on his back and win a 3 round UD, but now I think Varner out boxes him as Shalorus tries to land bombs on the feet.
I think you might be right, but i already threw a little Shalorus' way. I know for myself, my dislike for Varner weigted in with me confirming the bet, but it is a small bet and Varner is an easy guy to dislike. The thing with this fight is if Shalorus comes in with a good game plan, and sticks to it he should win. But like you mentioned, i am guessing he won't and this is likely money down the drain. I also have:Grispi: .5 unit. Grispi is a guy who i think can become a force in the WEC. LC Davis is a good test for him, but Grispi has real slick submissions and his stand-up is much crisper

Hominick: .66 unit.

Cariaso: .55 unit tailing someone else here. I got Cariaso at +190, and it seems that this is a fight between 2 new prospects coming in.
I'm gonna tail that Grispi wager!
 
Wow, crazy (awesome?) visual with Davis blacking out with his eyes open in the guillotine. Can't remember the last time I saw that.

Great win for Grispi. :mellow:

 
Last edited by a moderator:
For the TUF finale, I like Hamil over Jardine and I may put something on Yager moves to about +130. Yager is a complete front runner, but rarely in MMA does the tide change and momentum switch, so I think if he can get the better of Anotinio early, he should win the fight. Even, then I'd rather a smaller wager.

What do you guys think about the WEC card? I'm liking Shalorus over Varner as Shalorus's wrestling pedigree is too good to not be able to put Varner on his back for at least 2 rounds, and I don't think Varner's guard game is good enough to sub, sweep, or get up.
I haven't looked into the WEC card too much. I think i may put a little on Grispi and Hominick. I know i have never like Varner, so i may join you for a little on Shalorus, i just don't know enough about him at this point
Just realized that I let me dislike for Varner influence my decision here. I made too many assumptions about Shalorus' game based on his resume' as an olympic wrestler. Having watched a few of his fights online since my last post, I learned that he's fallen too in love with his striking game, and I think Varner lights him up on the feet. He definitely has the ability to put Varner on his back and win a 3 round UD, but now I think Varner out boxes him as Shalorus tries to land bombs on the feet.
I think you might be right, but i already threw a little Shalorus' way. I know for myself, my dislike for Varner weigted in with me confirming the bet, but it is a small bet and Varner is an easy guy to dislike. The thing with this fight is if Shalorus comes in with a good game plan, and sticks to it he should win. But like you mentioned, i am guessing he won't and this is likely money down the drain. I also have:Grispi: .5 unit. Grispi is a guy who i think can become a force in the WEC. LC Davis is a good test for him, but Grispi has real slick submissions and his stand-up is much crisper

Hominick: .66 unit.

Cariaso: .55 unit tailing someone else here. I got Cariaso at +190, and it seems that this is a fight between 2 new prospects coming in.
I'm gonna tail that Grispi wager!
:mellow: - couple of nice days we have going here, hoping we can finish well with Hominick and Shaloruspretty funny that it was Yves Valinge who had to judge the guillotine choke. Davis looked really out when that was done, no confusion on this one

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Wow, crazy (awesome?) visual with Davis blacking out with his eyes open in the guillotine. Can't remember the last time I saw that.Great win for Grispi. :mellow:
Yeah, that was something they probably don't want to sho too much. But there as no way Yves was going to end that quickly.
 
And another cool finish from Koch. Very slick triangle as Casimir was still fighting for position after freeing his neck.

 
Nice showing from Hominick, and I loved those body shots, but WOW. Almost lost it by getting too careless in close range and crumbling on that one shot by Jabouin. That would've been a ridiculous turnaround.

PS. Seemes there's a lot of people missing out on a very fun card. :thumbup:

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Nice showing from Hominick, and I loved those body shots, but WOW. Almost lost it by getting too careless in close range and crumbling on that one shot by Jabouin. That would've been a ridiculous turnaround.PS. Seemes there's a lot of people missing out on a very fun card. :thumbup:
always are. If WEC could somehow get a saturday morning/afternoon contract with one of the main networkd during the summer when there is nothing wrong, it would sell the WEC like nothing else. It is crazy how these shos are alays good.
 
Man, Varner and Shalorus are trading BOMBS. This is awesome. Even though Shalorus recovered from a huge shot, I can't see this going the full three rounds like this.

Edit: He did it again! Good lord. Shalorus has some insane recovery time.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Just finished up on this, was behind on Tivo. WHAT A CARD. :bow:

I don't see how with the point deduction that Varner / Kamal fight is a draw. :bs:

Hominick/ Jabouin was fantastic. Very good card.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
No idea what fight the judge who gave it to Shalorus was watching. Probably hates Varner's nuts.

WEC just keeps racking up the fun cards. Awesome stuff.

 
Incredible card. Shalorus has a great chain and no brain. That guy racked up crazy damage on Varner's lower body only to wait until it was too late to try to utilize his wrestling advantage. Not to mention continually going for that high inside leg kick. It gets frustrating making bets dependent upon a fighter actually following a logical gameplan to utilize his strengths only to see the guy insist on trading punches with a superior boxer. Those leg kicks were deadly and obviously made the fight closer than it could have been. Don't agree with the draw, but as a Shalorus bettor, I'll take it.

 
Leben to replace Wanderlei at 116

I hate Leben but props to the guy for stepping up. Two weeks between fights is unheard of. I didn't catch his fight vs Simpson... did Simpson land anything?
yeah, he tagged him with a few decent shots in the first round, but Leben just kept stalking him down and stuffing the takedowns. Second round was pretty much all Leben - his power shots started connecting and Simpson just gradually wore down.
 
Nice showing from Hominick, and I loved those body shots, but WOW. Almost lost it by getting too careless in close range and crumbling on that one shot by Jabouin. That would've been a ridiculous turnaround.PS. Seemes there's a lot of people missing out on a very fun card. :lmao:
WEC always puts on great shows - it's very rare that I've seen a bad one from them.I didn't get a chance to post during 49, but the Hominick/Jabouin and Wineland/Campuzano fights were both great to watch. I always like to see guys working the body in the standup and both those fights had some great body shots. The one that put Campuzano down was freaking vicious.in the main event I really thought Shalorus would take Varner out - I figured with his chin he'd be able to get the KO once the fight got into the later rounds and he wore Varner down some. I thought he should have gone away from the inside leg kicks after the point deduction though (and especially after the third stoppage), his outside kicks would have still been plenty good enough to cause damage.For some reason Shalorus doesn't want to use his wrestling much - every fight I've seen of his he just wants to keep it standing and trade haymakers.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Leben to replace Wanderlei at 116

I hate Leben but props to the guy for stepping up. Two weeks between fights is unheard of. I didn't catch his fight vs Simpson... did Simpson land anything?
yeah, he tagged him with a few decent shots in the first round, but Leben just kept stalking him down and stuffing the takedowns. Second round was pretty much all Leben - his power shots started connecting and Simpson just gradually wore down.
a lot of people may dislike Leben, but I don't think anyone can deny that he's an animal. this will probably make for an even more exciting fight than Silva.
 
Anyone see the Hamill fight vs Jardine? I heard that Hamill had a staph infection (dark circle on his lower back that was very noticable). Why would a doctor even allow a fight to take place if one participant had staph? Anyways, gutsy fight by Jardine, but Hamill looked pretty darn good after getting manhandled by Bones earlier this year. Looks like Hamill should fight Jones again with the winner getting a title shot.

 
Anyone see the Hamill fight vs Jardine? I heard that Hamill had a staph infection (dark circle on his lower back that was very noticable). Why would a doctor even allow a fight to take place if one participant had staph? Anyways, gutsy fight by Jardine, but Hamill looked pretty darn good after getting manhandled by Bones earlier this year. Looks like Hamill should fight Jones again with the winner getting a title shot.
Hamill is no where near a title shot.
 
Anyone see the Hamill fight vs Jardine? I heard that Hamill had a staph infection (dark circle on his lower back that was very noticable). Why would a doctor even allow a fight to take place if one participant had staph? Anyways, gutsy fight by Jardine, but Hamill looked pretty darn good after getting manhandled by Bones earlier this year. Looks like Hamill should fight Jones again with the winner getting a title shot.
It was more like a giant lump. I guess he had been on antibiotics for a week so the doc cleared him.Hamill will never be a 205 lb champ, Jones has a ton of potential to be, he needs to keep climbing the competition ladder and gain experience for another year and a half or so, but I think he could compete with the best in the division right now.
 
Jones has a ton of potential to be, he needs to keep climbing the competition ladder and gain experience for another year and a half or so, but I think he could compete with the best in the division right now.
Dude is a lock to hold the 205 belt IMO, and it's going to be sooner rather than later.
 
Jones has a ton of potential to be, he needs to keep climbing the competition ladder and gain experience for another year and a half or so, but I think he could compete with the best in the division right now.
Dude is a lock to hold the 205 belt IMO, and it's going to be sooner rather than later.
I don't disagree. Hopefully his 4th fight from today will be a title fight, but I don't think he'll get a shot before then.
 
Jones has a ton of potential to be, he needs to keep climbing the competition ladder and gain experience for another year and a half or so, but I think he could compete with the best in the division right now.
Dude is a lock to hold the 205 belt IMO, and it's going to be sooner rather than later.
I don't disagree. Hopefully his 4th fight from today will be a title fight, but I don't think he'll get a shot before then.
I still don't understand why he's getting Matyushenko. That's a step down after beating Brandon Vera. with a dominating victory vs Matyushenko, I can see him getting a top 5 guy in the weight division, and then a shot. so maybe 3 fights. But it could easily be 4.
 
Jones has a ton of potential to be, he needs to keep climbing the competition ladder and gain experience for another year and a half or so, but I think he could compete with the best in the division right now.
Dude is a lock to hold the 205 belt IMO, and it's going to be sooner rather than later.
He was one of the fighters I talked to at the UFC On Versus afterparty. He mentioned three times in about 15 minutes of conversation that he wanted to fight Rampage. I'd love to see that matchup.
 
Jones has a ton of potential to be, he needs to keep climbing the competition ladder and gain experience for another year and a half or so, but I think he could compete with the best in the division right now.
Dude is a lock to hold the 205 belt IMO, and it's going to be sooner rather than later.
He was one of the fighters I talked to at the UFC On Versus afterparty. He mentioned three times in about 15 minutes of conversation that he wanted to fight Rampage. I'd love to see that matchup.
I'd love to see him toss Rampage around like a rag doll. People rant and rave about Rampage's core strength, but Jones would be the one guy at 205 that could easily outpower him.Dana on Jones after he destroyed Vera:

http://www.mmafighting.com/2010/03/24/dana...m-a-title-shot/

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Now, should the fight stay standing for a majority of the time - which is how I see it - I truly believe Carwin has the more effective standup. While neither is by any means a master of technique, I don't see how you could even argue that Lesnar's got the sheer punching power at Carwin's level. Lesnar's yet to standing KO anybody, and has had to rely on his massive frame wearing down his opponents en route to ground and pound victories. Carwin on the otherhand, is a straight killer. This guy hits with the intent of hurting people. I try to imagine Randy Couture or Heath Herring vs. Shane Carwin, and find it hard to believe either of those guys would have lasted longer than 3 minutes before Carwin decapitates either of them. Lesnar tends to get tagged up a bit in his fights, yet hasn't had that happen via anybody with any semblance of actual knockout power. Carwin WILL be able to hit Lesnar in this fight, and we'll finally see what kind of chin Brock his. Given Carwin's KO power, I find it hard to believe he won't be able to wobble Brock and then put him on his back and finish him off while stunned.
The bolded is one of the biggest reasons i think Carwin can take Lesnar. A mistake you see all the time is everybody sees a big guy and assumes he can punch hard. You can lift all the weights you want, but you get the power in the punches for working on punching. I used to train boxing, and you would see examples of it all the time. Little guys who have boxed for years would punch you, and it felt like a ton of bricks. Point is, I think Carwin works on his punching much more then Brock has, and you can see it in the power he has with his punches. I won't be hitting this line up much until the NBA Finals are over and the next 3 MMA events in 4 days ( :thumbdown: Strikeforce tonight, good Bellator event tomorrow with Hornbuckle, and then TUF finale Saturday) finish up. The big question I have is where the line will go. You figure Carwin was an underdog to Mir, and was all the way up until the fight the money was coming in on Mir. I have to think the public money comes in on Lesnar so that line may even get better.

And Sheer, you still real high on Hammill? I hate to bet against Jardine, but i put down a bit on Hammill and I want to make sure my money is in the right spot. jardine is very hard to predict, but his getting KO'd by Bader makes me think hammill may be able to hurt Jardine. I think Hammill can probably take him down and do some nice GNP as well
I'm all over Carwin vs Lesnar. Lesnar charges way in way too often and too fast, his fights in the division so far have been against guys that weren't big strikers and were a lot smaller than him. I think he is going to run right into a hook from Carwin.Also, Lesnar leans forward and into his strikes a lot. This is poor form and saps a lot of power, but the biggest thing to worry about is that it leaves him wide open to the clinch or a good power counter punch.

Look for Lesnar to shoot Carwin to the ground as soon as possible, and then quick desperation when he realizes how fast Carwin is able to get up. Carwin's take down defense hasn't looked great in the UFC, but maybe only because he was too focused on punching the opponent in the face. He is still an assistant college wrestling coach, so I think we'll see him ready for some wrestling. Once Carwin gets Lesnar against the cage, we will find out if rather or not he can actually take a shot. I'm totally confident that Lesnar's stand up is nothing Shane should fear.

Carwin has succeeded at everything he has ever trained for. All American D2 football player, 2 time runner up and 1 time D2 Wrestling Champ, and undefeated in MMA. He fights smart and I'm counting on him to not walk himself into something brutal.

Brock couldn't cut it as a football player, he is an entertainer first and an athlete 2nd, no matter what he says.

Until someone shows me that Carwin in mortal, no way am I betting against him.

Should have locked it in at better odds.

 
Now, should the fight stay standing for a majority of the time - which is how I see it - I truly believe Carwin has the more effective standup. While neither is by any means a master of technique, I don't see how you could even argue that Lesnar's got the sheer punching power at Carwin's level. Lesnar's yet to standing KO anybody, and has had to rely on his massive frame wearing down his opponents en route to ground and pound victories. Carwin on the otherhand, is a straight killer. This guy hits with the intent of hurting people. I try to imagine Randy Couture or Heath Herring vs. Shane Carwin, and find it hard to believe either of those guys would have lasted longer than 3 minutes before Carwin decapitates either of them. Lesnar tends to get tagged up a bit in his fights, yet hasn't had that happen via anybody with any semblance of actual knockout power. Carwin WILL be able to hit Lesnar in this fight, and we'll finally see what kind of chin Brock his. Given Carwin's KO power, I find it hard to believe he won't be able to wobble Brock and then put him on his back and finish him off while stunned.
The bolded is one of the biggest reasons i think Carwin can take Lesnar. A mistake you see all the time is everybody sees a big guy and assumes he can punch hard. You can lift all the weights you want, but you get the power in the punches for working on punching. I used to train boxing, and you would see examples of it all the time. Little guys who have boxed for years would punch you, and it felt like a ton of bricks. Point is, I think Carwin works on his punching much more then Brock has, and you can see it in the power he has with his punches. I won't be hitting this line up much until the NBA Finals are over and the next 3 MMA events in 4 days ( :thumbup: Strikeforce tonight, good Bellator event tomorrow with Hornbuckle, and then TUF finale Saturday) finish up. The big question I have is where the line will go. You figure Carwin was an underdog to Mir, and was all the way up until the fight the money was coming in on Mir. I have to think the public money comes in on Lesnar so that line may even get better.

And Sheer, you still real high on Hammill? I hate to bet against Jardine, but i put down a bit on Hammill and I want to make sure my money is in the right spot. jardine is very hard to predict, but his getting KO'd by Bader makes me think hammill may be able to hurt Jardine. I think Hammill can probably take him down and do some nice GNP as well
I'm all over Carwin vs Lesnar. Lesnar charges way in way too often and too fast, his fights in the division so far have been against guys that weren't big strikers and were a lot smaller than him. I think he is going to run right into a hook from Carwin.Also, Lesnar leans forward and into his strikes a lot. This is poor form and saps a lot of power, but the biggest thing to worry about is that it leaves him wide open to the clinch or a good power counter punch.

Look for Lesnar to shoot Carwin to the ground as soon as possible, and then quick desperation when he realizes how fast Carwin is able to get up. Carwin's take down defense hasn't looked great in the UFC, but maybe only because he was too focused on punching the opponent in the face. He is still an assistant college wrestling coach, so I think we'll see him ready for some wrestling. Once Carwin gets Lesnar against the cage, we will find out if rather or not he can actually take a shot. I'm totally confident that Lesnar's stand up is nothing Shane should fear.

Carwin has succeeded at everything he has ever trained for. All American D2 football player, 2 time runner up and 1 time D2 Wrestling Champ, and undefeated in MMA. He fights smart and I'm counting on him to not walk himself into something brutal.

Brock couldn't cut it as a football player, he is an entertainer first and an athlete 2nd, no matter what he says.

Until someone shows me that Carwin in mortal, no way am I betting against him.

Should have locked it in at better odds.
Lesnar wasn't able to stick on an NFL roster, sure, but his workout numbers were outstanding - he just lacked the football smarts/experience to make it at that level. Meanwhile, Carwin couldn't even get invited to a camp following his senior year. And being a D2 wrestling champ is a big step down from being a D1 champ.I'm far from a Brock Lesnar fan - I think the guy acts like a tool - but I think the Carwin hype train is going to get derailed in this fight. Shane's got heavy hands, but he's not on the same level athletically as Lesnar - he's smaller, slower, not nearly as fluid or quick in his movement. He also has little to no head movement, and like you mentioned, his takedown defense is weak. Gonzaga manhandled him pretty well, and Lesnar's on a whole different level from Gonzaga - Carwin's not going to be getting off the canvas nearly as easily against a big fast gorilla like Brock.

His best chance is to keep it standing and land a big shot from range on Lesnar, but I doubt Lesnar will be stupid enough to stand in front of him and trade punches the way Mir did - I think Shane is gonna get taken down pretty quickly, and I think he's gonna get smothered on the ground.

I would love to see something different happen, but I just feel that Lesnar's freak size/athleticism combo is going to be too much for Carwin.

 
You guys keep talking Carwin up. I'm waiting until right before the fight to jump on Lesnar.

Carwin can hit like a truck, but Lesnar can take a shot. He will control Carwin and get the win one way or another.

LOL at calling Carwin a success because he won a D2 title and played D2 football and then saying Lesnar is an athlete 2nd after winning a D1 title and being on an actual NFL roster for a summer (and invited to go to NFL Europe).

Lesnar is training with Randy Couture, btw. Says he is learning a lot.

 
Now, should the fight stay standing for a majority of the time - which is how I see it - I truly believe Carwin has the more effective standup. While neither is by any means a master of technique, I don't see how you could even argue that Lesnar's got the sheer punching power at Carwin's level. Lesnar's yet to standing KO anybody, and has had to rely on his massive frame wearing down his opponents en route to ground and pound victories. Carwin on the otherhand, is a straight killer. This guy hits with the intent of hurting people. I try to imagine Randy Couture or Heath Herring vs. Shane Carwin, and find it hard to believe either of those guys would have lasted longer than 3 minutes before Carwin decapitates either of them. Lesnar tends to get tagged up a bit in his fights, yet hasn't had that happen via anybody with any semblance of actual knockout power. Carwin WILL be able to hit Lesnar in this fight, and we'll finally see what kind of chin Brock his. Given Carwin's KO power, I find it hard to believe he won't be able to wobble Brock and then put him on his back and finish him off while stunned.
The bolded is one of the biggest reasons i think Carwin can take Lesnar. A mistake you see all the time is everybody sees a big guy and assumes he can punch hard. You can lift all the weights you want, but you get the power in the punches for working on punching. I used to train boxing, and you would see examples of it all the time. Little guys who have boxed for years would punch you, and it felt like a ton of bricks. Point is, I think Carwin works on his punching much more then Brock has, and you can see it in the power he has with his punches. I won't be hitting this line up much until the NBA Finals are over and the next 3 MMA events in 4 days ( :lmao: Strikeforce tonight, good Bellator event tomorrow with Hornbuckle, and then TUF finale Saturday) finish up. The big question I have is where the line will go. You figure Carwin was an underdog to Mir, and was all the way up until the fight the money was coming in on Mir. I have to think the public money comes in on Lesnar so that line may even get better.

And Sheer, you still real high on Hammill? I hate to bet against Jardine, but i put down a bit on Hammill and I want to make sure my money is in the right spot. jardine is very hard to predict, but his getting KO'd by Bader makes me think hammill may be able to hurt Jardine. I think Hammill can probably take him down and do some nice GNP as well
I'm all over Carwin vs Lesnar. Lesnar charges way in way too often and too fast, his fights in the division so far have been against guys that weren't big strikers and were a lot smaller than him. I think he is going to run right into a hook from Carwin.Also, Lesnar leans forward and into his strikes a lot. This is poor form and saps a lot of power, but the biggest thing to worry about is that it leaves him wide open to the clinch or a good power counter punch.

Look for Lesnar to shoot Carwin to the ground as soon as possible, and then quick desperation when he realizes how fast Carwin is able to get up. Carwin's take down defense hasn't looked great in the UFC, but maybe only because he was too focused on punching the opponent in the face. He is still an assistant college wrestling coach, so I think we'll see him ready for some wrestling. Once Carwin gets Lesnar against the cage, we will find out if rather or not he can actually take a shot. I'm totally confident that Lesnar's stand up is nothing Shane should fear.

Carwin has succeeded at everything he has ever trained for. All American D2 football player, 2 time runner up and 1 time D2 Wrestling Champ, and undefeated in MMA. He fights smart and I'm counting on him to not walk himself into something brutal.

Brock couldn't cut it as a football player, he is an entertainer first and an athlete 2nd, no matter what he says.

Until someone shows me that Carwin in mortal, no way am I betting against him.

Should have locked it in at better odds.
Lesnar wasn't able to stick on an NFL roster, sure, but his workout numbers were outstanding - he just lacked the football smarts/experience to make it at that level. Meanwhile, Carwin couldn't even get invited to a camp following his senior year. And being a D2 wrestling champ is a big step down from being a D1 champ.I'm far from a Brock Lesnar fan - I think the guy acts like a tool - but I think the Carwin hype train is going to get derailed in this fight. Shane's got heavy hands, but he's not on the same level athletically as Lesnar - he's smaller, slower, not nearly as fluid or quick in his movement. He also has little to no head movement, and like you mentioned, his takedown defense is weak. Gonzaga manhandled him pretty well, and Lesnar's on a whole different level from Gonzaga - Carwin's not going to be getting off the canvas nearly as easily against a big fast gorilla like Brock.

His best chance is to keep it standing and land a big shot from range on Lesnar, but I doubt Lesnar will be stupid enough to stand in front of him and trade punches the way Mir did - I think Shane is gonna get taken down pretty quickly, and I think he's gonna get smothered on the ground.

I would love to see something different happen, but I just feel that Lesnar's freak size/athleticism combo is going to be too much for Carwin.
My point was that Carwin doesn't know what failure means, Brock has experienced plenty of it.If Brock's speed and power transitions so well to MMA? How come it takes him so long to finish fights? Heath Herring to a decision? Over half way into Round 2 to take Couture when he had at least 60 lbs on him on fight night? Do you think either of these guys last over a round with Carwin? I don't.

I'm just not buying it, Lesnar is going to be near the top of the division for as long as he wants to fight, but he is going to get owned by Carwin. Brock looks great on paper, especially when you consider that Carwin is at least an inch or two shorter than whatever they list him at, but paper is as far as it goes.

 
You guys keep talking Carwin up. I'm waiting until right before the fight to jump on Lesnar. Carwin can hit like a truck, but Lesnar can take a shot. He will control Carwin and get the win one way or another. LOL at calling Carwin a success because he won a D2 title and played D2 football and then saying Lesnar is an athlete 2nd after winning a D1 title and being on an actual NFL roster for a summer (and invited to go to NFL Europe).Lesnar is training with Randy Couture, btw. Says he is learning a lot.
I am still on the fence with this one, but have already invested a bit on Carwin, expecting to arbitrage out if need be (i got a nice chunk of Carwin at +160 awhile ago). 2 things though:1. you mention Lesnar can take a shot, but i am not positive with that. He admitted to seeing stars and getting knocked a little silly by a Mir knee. I am not sure the comparison of a Mir knee and a Carwin punch, but Carwin has laid a lot of guys out with those hands. it will be a good test for both.2. and Lesnar training with Randy says he is more open to expanding his training, but i wouldn't read too much into it. He trained with Randy for a week, i am not sure he learned in that week's time.
 
You guys keep talking Carwin up. I'm waiting until right before the fight to jump on Lesnar. Carwin can hit like a truck, but Lesnar can take a shot. He will control Carwin and get the win one way or another. LOL at calling Carwin a success because he won a D2 title and played D2 football and then saying Lesnar is an athlete 2nd after winning a D1 title and being on an actual NFL roster for a summer (and invited to go to NFL Europe).Lesnar is training with Randy Couture, btw. Says he is learning a lot.
I am still on the fence with this one, but have already invested a bit on Carwin, expecting to arbitrage out if need be (i got a nice chunk of Carwin at +160 awhile ago). 2 things though:1. you mention Lesnar can take a shot, but i am not positive with that. He admitted to seeing stars and getting knocked a little silly by a Mir knee. I am not sure the comparison of a Mir knee and a Carwin punch, but Carwin has laid a lot of guys out with those hands. it will be a good test for both.2. and Lesnar training with Randy says he is more open to expanding his training, but i wouldn't read too much into it. He trained with Randy for a week, i am not sure he learned in that week's time.
Couture quote:“It wasn’t about me going out there and training him or feeling like I’m going to contribute to helping him beat Carwin or any of that. None of that went on…Obviously, there was some technical adjustments that could be made, but I wasn’t there to be a coach. I was there to be a workout partner. He’s doing more of sparring and that type of training in the morning and doing more of his strength and conditioning and individual technical training in the afternoons and evenings. I’m exactly the opposite.” Lesnar probably has a medical history of concussions from his WWE days, they're not really known for putting their athletes on a pedestal over there. What pro wrestler hasn't had a history of concussions?
 
hooter311 said:
My point was that Carwin doesn't know what failure means, Brock has experienced plenty of it.If Brock's speed and power transitions so well to MMA? How come it takes him so long to finish fights? Heath Herring to a decision? Over half way into Round 2 to take Couture when he had at least 60 lbs on him on fight night? Do you think either of these guys last over a round with Carwin? I don't.I'm just not buying it, Lesnar is going to be near the top of the division for as long as he wants to fight, but he is going to get owned by Carwin. Brock looks great on paper, especially when you consider that Carwin is at least an inch or two shorter than whatever they list him at, but paper is as far as it goes.
1) Carwin wanted to play in the NFL and didn't get invited to a camp - that's not experiencing failure? and even so, I don't think Carwin has any kind of mental edge over Lesnar - both guys seem to be supremely confident in their abilities.2) Lesnar completely dominated Herring, and finished Randy in the second round, so it's not like either of those fights was all that close. I do think that Couture could last more than a round against Carwin, especially if he was facing him in only his fourth fight like Lesnar did. (That brings up a point I forgot to mention earlier - Carwin's gas tank has never been tested, so it'll be interesting to see how he reacts if the fight does go into the later rounds.)Hey, I could be wrong, no doubt - anything can happen in MMA. But I just think that Lesnar's on another level athletically from Shane Carwin, and I don't see any skill advantages for Carwin in this fight, either - all he's really got is the threat of a big power shot. That might be enough for most guys, but I don't think it's gonna be enough for Lesnar - Brock's just a genetic freak. Like Mir said after Mir-Lesnar 2, he never believed that an opponent's size/speed could ever trump his fighting skills, but Lesnar shattered that belief for him in a hurry.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Put me in the Lesnar wins easily camp. Carwin has the puncher's chance, but that is generally weighed too heavily.

 
Possum said:
Lesnar wasn't able to stick on an NFL roster, sure, but his workout numbers were outstanding - he just lacked the football smarts/experience to make it at that level. Meanwhile, Carwin couldn't even get invited to a camp following his senior year. And being a D2 wrestling champ is a big step down from being a D1 champ.

I'm far from a Brock Lesnar fan - I think the guy acts like a tool - but I think the Carwin hype train is going to get derailed in this fight. Shane's got heavy hands, but he's not on the same level athletically as Lesnar - he's smaller, slower, not nearly as fluid or quick in his movement. He also has little to no head movement, and like you mentioned, his takedown defense is weak. Gonzaga manhandled him pretty well, and Lesnar's on a whole different level from Gonzaga - Carwin's not going to be getting off the canvas nearly as easily against a big fast gorilla like Brock.

His best chance is to keep it standing and land a big shot from range on Lesnar, but I doubt Lesnar will be stupid enough to stand in front of him and trade punches the way Mir did - I think Shane is gonna get taken down pretty quickly, and I think he's gonna get smothered on the ground.

I would love to see something different happen, but I just feel that Lesnar's freak size/athleticism combo is going to be too much for Carwin.
Gonzaga caught him with a big punch and took him down for a couple seconds. He didn't manhandle him.(that word just sounds so wrong)

I'm in the Carwin 1st round KO corner. He has done it to 11 times in a row. No reason to see that changing. We've seen Lesnar get stunned by Mir and Couture and if Carwin catches him, he won't be stunned... he'll be out.

 
Possum said:
Lesnar wasn't able to stick on an NFL roster, sure, but his workout numbers were outstanding - he just lacked the football smarts/experience to make it at that level. Meanwhile, Carwin couldn't even get invited to a camp following his senior year. And being a D2 wrestling champ is a big step down from being a D1 champ.

I'm far from a Brock Lesnar fan - I think the guy acts like a tool - but I think the Carwin hype train is going to get derailed in this fight. Shane's got heavy hands, but he's not on the same level athletically as Lesnar - he's smaller, slower, not nearly as fluid or quick in his movement. He also has little to no head movement, and like you mentioned, his takedown defense is weak. Gonzaga manhandled him pretty well, and Lesnar's on a whole different level from Gonzaga - Carwin's not going to be getting off the canvas nearly as easily against a big fast gorilla like Brock.

His best chance is to keep it standing and land a big shot from range on Lesnar, but I doubt Lesnar will be stupid enough to stand in front of him and trade punches the way Mir did - I think Shane is gonna get taken down pretty quickly, and I think he's gonna get smothered on the ground.

I would love to see something different happen, but I just feel that Lesnar's freak size/athleticism combo is going to be too much for Carwin.
Gonzaga caught him with a big punch and took him down for a couple seconds. He didn't manhandle him.(that word just sounds so wrong)

I'm in the Carwin 1st round KO corner. He has done it to 11 times in a row. No reason to see that changing. We've seen Lesnar get stunned by Mir and Couture and if Carwin catches him, he won't be stunned... he'll be out.
Really?
 
Possum said:
Lesnar wasn't able to stick on an NFL roster, sure, but his workout numbers were outstanding - he just lacked the football smarts/experience to make it at that level. Meanwhile, Carwin couldn't even get invited to a camp following his senior year. And being a D2 wrestling champ is a big step down from being a D1 champ.

I'm far from a Brock Lesnar fan - I think the guy acts like a tool - but I think the Carwin hype train is going to get derailed in this fight. Shane's got heavy hands, but he's not on the same level athletically as Lesnar - he's smaller, slower, not nearly as fluid or quick in his movement. He also has little to no head movement, and like you mentioned, his takedown defense is weak. Gonzaga manhandled him pretty well, and Lesnar's on a whole different level from Gonzaga - Carwin's not going to be getting off the canvas nearly as easily against a big fast gorilla like Brock.

His best chance is to keep it standing and land a big shot from range on Lesnar, but I doubt Lesnar will be stupid enough to stand in front of him and trade punches the way Mir did - I think Shane is gonna get taken down pretty quickly, and I think he's gonna get smothered on the ground.

I would love to see something different happen, but I just feel that Lesnar's freak size/athleticism combo is going to be too much for Carwin.
Gonzaga caught him with a big punch and took him down for a couple seconds. He didn't manhandle him.(that word just sounds so wrong)

I'm in the Carwin 1st round KO corner. He has done it to 11 times in a row. No reason to see that changing. We've seen Lesnar get stunned by Mir and Couture and if Carwin catches him, he won't be stunned... he'll be out.
Really?
Really.
 
Possum said:
Lesnar wasn't able to stick on an NFL roster, sure, but his workout numbers were outstanding - he just lacked the football smarts/experience to make it at that level. Meanwhile, Carwin couldn't even get invited to a camp following his senior year. And being a D2 wrestling champ is a big step down from being a D1 champ.

I'm far from a Brock Lesnar fan - I think the guy acts like a tool - but I think the Carwin hype train is going to get derailed in this fight. Shane's got heavy hands, but he's not on the same level athletically as Lesnar - he's smaller, slower, not nearly as fluid or quick in his movement. He also has little to no head movement, and like you mentioned, his takedown defense is weak. Gonzaga manhandled him pretty well, and Lesnar's on a whole different level from Gonzaga - Carwin's not going to be getting off the canvas nearly as easily against a big fast gorilla like Brock.

His best chance is to keep it standing and land a big shot from range on Lesnar, but I doubt Lesnar will be stupid enough to stand in front of him and trade punches the way Mir did - I think Shane is gonna get taken down pretty quickly, and I think he's gonna get smothered on the ground.

I would love to see something different happen, but I just feel that Lesnar's freak size/athleticism combo is going to be too much for Carwin.
Gonzaga caught him with a big punch and took him down for a couple seconds. He didn't manhandle him.(that word just sounds so wrong)

I'm in the Carwin 1st round KO corner. He has done it to 11 times in a row. No reason to see that changing. We've seen Lesnar get stunned by Mir and Couture and if Carwin catches him, he won't be stunned... he'll be out.
I agree. I'm not one to blindly back a guy because I think he can win on a miracle KO, but Lesnar DOES get hit, he just hasn't had his chin checked by anyone with real power yet. For all the talk of Lesnar being faster, more agile, athletic etc., yes this may very well be true, but it doesn't change the fact that he doesn't move his head well and doesn't pack as much power in his shots as Carwin does. Therefore, the longer this fight stays standing, the longer it will favor Carwin IMO. Lesnar could very well take Carwin down and dry hump him for a while, but I don't think Carwin gets held down and turtles up the way Frank Mir did. He's a load, and will be very tough to get down/keep down.
 
Possum said:
Lesnar wasn't able to stick on an NFL roster, sure, but his workout numbers were outstanding - he just lacked the football smarts/experience to make it at that level. Meanwhile, Carwin couldn't even get invited to a camp following his senior year. And being a D2 wrestling champ is a big step down from being a D1 champ.

I'm far from a Brock Lesnar fan - I think the guy acts like a tool - but I think the Carwin hype train is going to get derailed in this fight. Shane's got heavy hands, but he's not on the same level athletically as Lesnar - he's smaller, slower, not nearly as fluid or quick in his movement. He also has little to no head movement, and like you mentioned, his takedown defense is weak. Gonzaga manhandled him pretty well, and Lesnar's on a whole different level from Gonzaga - Carwin's not going to be getting off the canvas nearly as easily against a big fast gorilla like Brock.

His best chance is to keep it standing and land a big shot from range on Lesnar, but I doubt Lesnar will be stupid enough to stand in front of him and trade punches the way Mir did - I think Shane is gonna get taken down pretty quickly, and I think he's gonna get smothered on the ground.

I would love to see something different happen, but I just feel that Lesnar's freak size/athleticism combo is going to be too much for Carwin.
Gonzaga caught him with a big punch and took him down for a couple seconds. He didn't manhandle him.(that word just sounds so wrong)

I'm in the Carwin 1st round KO corner. He has done it to 11 times in a row. No reason to see that changing. We've seen Lesnar get stunned by Mir and Couture and if Carwin catches him, he won't be stunned... he'll be out.
I agree. I'm not one to blindly back a guy because I think he can win on a miracle KO, but Lesnar DOES get hit, he just hasn't had his chin checked by anyone with real power yet. For all the talk of Lesnar being faster, more agile, athletic etc., yes this may very well be true, but it doesn't change the fact that he doesn't move his head well and doesn't pack as much power in his shots as Carwin does. Therefore, the longer this fight stays standing, the longer it will favor Carwin IMO. Lesnar could very well take Carwin down and dry hump him for a while, but I don't think Carwin gets held down and turtles up the way Frank Mir did. He's a load, and will be very tough to get down/keep down.
It definitely wouldn't shock me to see Lesnar take him down quickly and pound him out but IMO that is the only possible way for Lesnar to way. If the fight is standing for a while or clinched against the cage, it is just a matter of time till Carwin KOs him.
 
Possum said:
Lesnar wasn't able to stick on an NFL roster, sure, but his workout numbers were outstanding - he just lacked the football smarts/experience to make it at that level. Meanwhile, Carwin couldn't even get invited to a camp following his senior year. And being a D2 wrestling champ is a big step down from being a D1 champ.

I'm far from a Brock Lesnar fan - I think the guy acts like a tool - but I think the Carwin hype train is going to get derailed in this fight. Shane's got heavy hands, but he's not on the same level athletically as Lesnar - he's smaller, slower, not nearly as fluid or quick in his movement. He also has little to no head movement, and like you mentioned, his takedown defense is weak. Gonzaga manhandled him pretty well, and Lesnar's on a whole different level from Gonzaga - Carwin's not going to be getting off the canvas nearly as easily against a big fast gorilla like Brock.

His best chance is to keep it standing and land a big shot from range on Lesnar, but I doubt Lesnar will be stupid enough to stand in front of him and trade punches the way Mir did - I think Shane is gonna get taken down pretty quickly, and I think he's gonna get smothered on the ground.

I would love to see something different happen, but I just feel that Lesnar's freak size/athleticism combo is going to be too much for Carwin.
Gonzaga caught him with a big punch and took him down for a couple seconds. He didn't manhandle him.(that word just sounds so wrong)
GG rocked Carwin and took him down with ease - he couldn't keep him there, but I thought at the time that was mainly due to Gonzaga trying to advance position way too quick and not keeping his weight on Carwin in guard. That fight was short, but it was all Gonzaga until Carwin landed his big punch.
I'm in the Carwin 1st round KO corner. He has done it to 11 times in a row. No reason to see that changing. We've seen Lesnar get stunned by Mir and Couture and if Carwin catches him, he won't be stunned... he'll be out.
Carwin's got heavy hands, no doubt, but that's all he's got - where else do you see an advantage for him? If GG can rock Carwin and put him on the mat that easily, how do you see him staying upright against Lesnar? Carwin's standup defense is weak at best, and while Lesnar doesn't have the same type of KO power, he's got the ability to land a good shot and stun Carwin - and if Lesnar gets on top of Shane, he's going to have a hell of a time getting back up again.I really just don't see much of a chance for Carwin - he's going to be outclassed in every area except power. That's been enough for him to stay undefeated so far (and like I said I'd be happy to see it happen again), but I think his streak is gonna end against Brock - I don't believe he has enough of an athleticism/skill level combination to beat Lesnar.

 
but we ought to let Lesnar-Carwin lie till next week - the baddest man on the planet's fighting Saturday night and I'm damn excited to see him in the cage again.

I'm hoping Fedor gets the win against Werdum (and avoids any injuries) to set up Fedor vs. Overeem for the Strikeforce title. That would be a huge fight.

 
but we ought to let Lesnar-Carwin lie till next week - the baddest man on the planet's fighting Saturday night and I'm damn excited to see him in the cage again. I'm hoping Fedor gets the win against Werdum (and avoids any injuries) to set up Fedor vs. Overeem for the Strikeforce title. That would be a huge fight.
I'm finding it harder and harder to get into the Showtime events. I rank WEC and Bellator ahead of them in terms of my interest in their fights. It just seems like their belts do not really mean anything, and their match-making is sub-par. I would think they have more talent in the organization as a whole than Bellator or WEC, but they certainly do not put on better cards. I am really not sure why this is, and why it seems my interest in these cards is not as good as it is for WEC and Bellator.
 
but we ought to let Lesnar-Carwin lie till next week - the baddest man on the planet's fighting Saturday night and I'm damn excited to see him in the cage again. I'm hoping Fedor gets the win against Werdum (and avoids any injuries) to set up Fedor vs. Overeem for the Strikeforce title. That would be a huge fight.
I'm finding it harder and harder to get into the Showtime events. I rank WEC and Bellator ahead of them in terms of my interest in their fights. It just seems like their belts do not really mean anything, and their match-making is sub-par. I would think they have more talent in the organization as a whole than Bellator or WEC, but they certainly do not put on better cards. I am really not sure why this is, and why it seems my interest in these cards is not as good as it is for WEC and Bellator.
:goodposting: Pretty tough to get excited about. Rogers loses... then gets a title shot? The guy Rogers lost to, has to win again to get a title shot? I really hope Werdum wins. It would be interesting to see if Strikeforce, A) Folds or B) Just gives Fedor a title shot anyway.
 
but we ought to let Lesnar-Carwin lie till next week - the baddest man on the planet's fighting Saturday night and I'm damn excited to see him in the cage again. I'm hoping Fedor gets the win against Werdum (and avoids any injuries) to set up Fedor vs. Overeem for the Strikeforce title. That would be a huge fight.
I'm finding it harder and harder to get into the Showtime events. I rank WEC and Bellator ahead of them in terms of my interest in their fights. It just seems like their belts do not really mean anything, and their match-making is sub-par. I would think they have more talent in the organization as a whole than Bellator or WEC, but they certainly do not put on better cards. I am really not sure why this is, and why it seems my interest in these cards is not as good as it is for WEC and Bellator.
hmm... I thought their Nashville event (the one with Henderson-Shields and Melendez-Aoki) turned out to be a dud, but their other shows this year have been pretty good. I thought the Heavy Artillery and Los Angeles events were both really fun to watch.they definitely need to do a better job of production and marketing. They're not on the level of the UFC there for sure, but they have some talent (especially at heavyweight) and they're getting better as time goes on. I agree with you that the WEC always puts on the best events, but so far this year I think I've enjoyed the Strikeforce events more than the UFC and Bellator stuff on the whole.
 
but we ought to let Lesnar-Carwin lie till next week - the baddest man on the planet's fighting Saturday night and I'm damn excited to see him in the cage again.

I'm hoping Fedor gets the win against Werdum (and avoids any injuries) to set up Fedor vs. Overeem for the Strikeforce title. That would be a huge fight.
I'm finding it harder and harder to get into the Showtime events. I rank WEC and Bellator ahead of them in terms of my interest in their fights. It just seems like their belts do not really mean anything, and their match-making is sub-par. I would think they have more talent in the organization as a whole than Bellator or WEC, but they certainly do not put on better cards. I am really not sure why this is, and why it seems my interest in these cards is not as good as it is for WEC and Bellator.
:coffee: Pretty tough to get excited about. Rogers loses... then gets a title shot? The guy Rogers lost to, has to win again to get a title shot? I really hope Werdum wins. It would be interesting to see if Strikeforce, A) Folds or B) Just gives Fedor a title shot anyway.
yeah, that was pretty stupid. But I'm still rooting for Fedor to win this weekend and set up the Overeem fight - belt or no belt, that's going to be a hell of a matchup.
 
but we ought to let Lesnar-Carwin lie till next week - the baddest man on the planet's fighting Saturday night and I'm damn excited to see him in the cage again.

I'm hoping Fedor gets the win against Werdum (and avoids any injuries) to set up Fedor vs. Overeem for the Strikeforce title. That would be a huge fight.
I'm finding it harder and harder to get into the Showtime events. I rank WEC and Bellator ahead of them in terms of my interest in their fights. It just seems like their belts do not really mean anything, and their match-making is sub-par. I would think they have more talent in the organization as a whole than Bellator or WEC, but they certainly do not put on better cards. I am really not sure why this is, and why it seems my interest in these cards is not as good as it is for WEC and Bellator.
:goodposting: Pretty tough to get excited about. Rogers loses... then gets a title shot? The guy Rogers lost to, has to win again to get a title shot? I really hope Werdum wins. It would be interesting to see if Strikeforce, A) Folds or B) Just gives Fedor a title shot anyway.
yeah, that was pretty stupid. But I'm still rooting for Fedor to win this weekend and set up the Overeem fight - belt or no belt, that's going to be a hell of a matchup.
Meh... I've been off the Fedor bandwagon for a while now. He hasn't fought anyone good in about 5 years. He'll get my interest back when he isn't fighting washed up UFC guys.
 
Meh... I've been off the Fedor bandwagon for a while now. He hasn't fought anyone good in about 5 years. He'll get my interest back when he isn't fighting washed up UFC guys.
I think his competition's been about the same level the past few years as what the other top heavyweights have been facing. Sylvia, Arlovski, Rogers, and Werdum are all in that tier of solid fighters just outside the top 5-6 guys, along with Gonzaga, Rothwell, Kongo, current Cro Cop, current Nogueria, Bigfoot Silva, etc. definitely sucks not seeing him in the UFC, though - I hope he comes over for a run once his Strikeforce contract is up.
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Back
Top