Been out of action for awhile, but I'm making a large play tonight on Sobral over Lawler, currently at +110 at sportsbook.
Lots of reasons I like this fight.
First, Lawler is putting on 10 lbs while Sobral is cutting 10 for the cutwight fight. Lawler is a great puncher for his weightclass, but Sobral's been tested at 205 by guys that hit harder. A boxer adding 10 lbs always makes me question his conditioning.
Lawler has lost every major matchup he has had with submission artists.
If Lawler catches him square, its all over. If Sobral can wait him out and get him down to the mat, the bet cashes.
Will also make a smaller play tonight on Kennedy over Prangley. Should go to a decision with Kennedy doing a lot of ground and pounding.
I'm going to this card and want to put something on someone. I like both these fighters. I am leaning towards Babalu for the reasons you mentioned.
Interesting, i'm on the other side with taking Lawlor. Robbie has always been a larger MW, and Babalu has always been a smaller LHW, so i don't think there will be too much of a size difference. The thing with Robbie putting on the 10 lbs., is more about him not having to cut weight for the event, rather then add on 10 lbs. of muscle. Looking at their last fights, Lawlor had a good one with manhoef and babalu got destroyed by Moussasi. Babalu has the advantage on the ground, but has never had exceptional takedowns, and I don't think he can take Robbie down (Lawlor has better than average takedown defense). Lawlor's losing to submission artists is a little tricky. he lost to Mayhem 4 years ago by a triangle which i can't remeber that fight off the top of my head, and the guillotine loss he had to Shields just seemed like a real dumb move by Robbie. The more i think about it, the more I like Lawlor here. I am just not sure what babalu brings to the table that he can do to Robbie. Without being able to take Lawlor down, i don't see how he will lure Lawlor into a sumbmission. And looking at who Babalu has fought and beat lately, I think Lawlor is a step up for him (Mike Whitehead, Southworth, David Heath and Sokoudju).
So here are my plays for tonight:
Lawlor: probably 1 unit, maybe more. see above for a description
Ted Kennedy: .66 unit. Prangley is a dangerous fighter, but Kennedy has improved each time out and i think this is a fight to highlight and push Kennedy (we know how that has worked out for Strikeforce in the past though). Prangley reminds me of a Jeremy Horn or one of those guys, takes tons of fights and wins a lot against lesser competition, but I'm not sure he will rise to the occassion agsint Kennedy here
Conor Heun +300: .30 unit: this is a bit of a tail of a bunch of stuff i read. KJ Noons' stand-up is probably the best throughout strikeforce, but Heun brings the wrestling and BJJ to possibly control the fight. here is a little write-up i found:
Probably more famous for his role on Bully Beatdown than his actual fighting prowess, Conor “The Hurricane” Heun is a full-time submission grappling and wrestling trainer at Legends MMA, and a veteran of several mid-tier MMA organizations. Those he’s not a full-time fighter, Heun has had a successful career with eight wins, and all of this three losses coming by way of decision.
He will be facing off-again on-again MMA fighter KJ Noons, who has spent the majority of his fighting career inside a boxing ring, rather than the cage. Having already made his comeback to MMA in Japan, he took on Andre Amade in an affair that showed both ring rust, and a series of very bad habits picked up from his several years away from the sport and learning the sweet science.
While Noons can clearly out-strike Heun in a standing battle, Heun brings more than enough wrestling and submission grappling to put Noons down consistently in this bout, and make his boxing skills all but useless. My concern here is that Heun will prefer to bang it out with Noons, as he’s shown a willingness to scrap even when it doesn’t favor his chances of winning. Despite sometimes being his own worst enemy in the cage, Heun comes into this bout at +335 and makes for a great bet in what is likely a dead even fight.