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UFC wagering: no longer stuck with the old thread title. The window to change it is here! (4 Viewers)

Betting against Tyson Griffin mostly due to his long time away from the cage and the fact that I hate him.
Rust is the only reason I can see to go against him. He's fought most of the best dudes at 155 and his only losses are to the current champ and a former champ. Dunham looks like a promising young talent, but TG is a big step up in talent over anyone he's faced.
 
Betting against Tyson Griffin mostly due to his long time away from the cage and the fact that I hate him.
Rust is the only reason I can see to go against him. He's fought most of the best dudes at 155 and his only losses are to the current champ and a former champ. Dunham looks like a promising young talent, but TG is a big step up in talent over anyone he's faced.
Should've also lost to Thiago Tavares, but the judges at ringside were blind. :(
 
Made a pretty large play on Paulo Thiago at -170. Also looking at Miranda -200 but haven't pulled the trigger yet.

Considering a blind play on Mirko Cro Cop. I've never in all of my time betting MMA seen such an overwhelming amount of people backing one side as I am with Pat Barry in this fight. The fight to fade Cro Cop was JDS when the line closed with JDS being less of a favorite than Barry currently is. Of course we all know that Cro Cop has lost something, but if reports are true that he'd be hindered in his training by a knee injury (feels like every fighter coming off a stretch of disappointing appearances always has some kind of convenient story) then he may be getting severely undervalued here. Barry's obviously got some striking chops, but a potentially fully trained Cro Cop, likely fighting for his UFC career against a guy who is actually more 1 dementional than Mirko is should not be sitting at the number that he's currently at IMO.

 
WTF happened to the TUF11 thread? Appears to be gone. Or else I'm bad at search.

In any case. Very glad to see Court Mcgee in the finals -- I like that dude. IT also helps that I think Kris McLaynPray is boring and has a ####ty gas tank and that he's generally a knob, so pretty easy to pick a side here.

 
WTF happened to the TUF11 thread? Appears to be gone. Or else I'm bad at search. In any case. Very glad to see Court Mcgee in the finals -- I like that dude. IT also helps that I think Kris McLaynPray is boring and has a ####ty gas tank and that he's generally a knob, so pretty easy to pick a side here.
:mellow: McGee / Tavares should have been the final.
 
WTF happened to the TUF11 thread? Appears to be gone. Or else I'm bad at search. In any case. Very glad to see Court Mcgee in the finals -- I like that dude. IT also helps that I think Kris McLaynPray is boring and has a ####ty gas tank and that he's generally a knob, so pretty easy to pick a side here.
:) McGee / Tavares should have been the final.
I definately am waiting to see the line and will grab Court when it comes out as well. betting the TUF finales can be a gold mine sometimes because the line makers base their lines off the show, and there have been some heavy dogs that win on those cards. I think the Yaeger-Rich line will be interesting. I remember seeing Yaeger on the Iron Ring :lmao: :lmao: (that show set back the black community a decade or 2, just embarrasing), and he has adequate/flashy stand-up/, so i wouldn't be surprised to see him be the favorite, making a bet on Rich a good one if he has good odds. I think Kacey did enough to earn the fight from the show (I think Yaeger's whole deal was an act, working off the Junie/Matrione factor), but i think they want to push Rich A. for some reason. And i really was hopping Nick would make the finale card as well, but maybe his knee is still hurt. here is the card:MAIN CARD•Matt Hamill vs. Keith Jardine•Court McGee vs. Kris McCray•Chris Leben vs. Aaron Simpson•Spencer Fisher vs. Dennis Siver•Rich Attonito vs. Jamie YagerPRELIMINARY CARD •John Gunderson vs. Mark Holst•Seth Baczynski vs. Brad Tavares•Josh Bryant vs. Kyle Noke •Chris Camozzi vs. James Hammortree•Travis Browne vs. James McSweeney
 
sheerterror said:
Made a pretty large play on Paulo Thiago at -170. Also looking at Miranda -200 but haven't pulled the trigger yet.Considering a blind play on Mirko Cro Cop. I've never in all of my time betting MMA seen such an overwhelming amount of people backing one side as I am with Pat Barry in this fight. The fight to fade Cro Cop was JDS when the line closed with JDS being less of a favorite than Barry currently is. Of course we all know that Cro Cop has lost something, but if reports are true that he'd be hindered in his training by a knee injury (feels like every fighter coming off a stretch of disappointing appearances always has some kind of convenient story) then he may be getting severely undervalued here. Barry's obviously got some striking chops, but a potentially fully trained Cro Cop, likely fighting for his UFC career against a guy who is actually more 1 dementional than Mirko is should not be sitting at the number that he's currently at IMO.
nice snag with grabbing Thiago at -170. I think when i checked the lines he was -260. I think Ahrn posted it earlier, but i am a big Kampmann fan as well, but i think he loses this. I also am thinking a little bit with you about Cro Cop,and if he gets near +130 or something i will hedge a bit of my Barry bet. I think Barry has trained well for this fight, and i am not sure how Cro Cop wins without KO'ing Barry. I heard the arguments about Cro Cop maybe having an advantage on the ground, but I think Barry has improved his training camps since his loss to Hague. i actually think he won a grappling tournament a little bit ago, but i could be wrong (some interview with Ariel Helwanni at a UFC show)and why the love for Miranda? I am not too familiar with him, or maybe i just can't place the face right now. and a fight that should be a real good one on the undercard is Condit-McCrory. Really think that should be on the Spike prelim show, even though that would take it off the main card. Both guys could use the push with some more exposure. I don't know why the UFC keeps pushing Danzig and Wiman with putting them on the Spike prelims either, maybe they think that will pull in viewers. I was a Danzig fan before he went to TUF, and i don't know what happened to him.
 
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I can see Hathaway on his way up while Diego is on his way down. Kind of like when Diego fought Karo when Karo was still a contender. Something just smells like a trap for me with that fight and I am staying away from it.

I just jumped on Hornbuckle over Askren at -140 for the Bellator final. Hornbuckle has looked great while Ben has looked pretty green at times. Might end up putting more on Hornbuckle by the time the fights gets here.

Staying with just Rashad tomorrow night. I am very tempted to bet big on Escudero even though I hate laying those kind of odds.
I grabbed Honrbuckle at -160 shortly after the lines went up, and for the life of me i can't figure out why this line hasn't moved more. Hornbuckle has been at -160 for weeks now, and my only guess is people jsut aren't putting any money on this fight because i don't know how you can have a lot of confidence in Askren on this one. I think i may put more on this fight as well after this UFC card. My account balance is dreadfully low because of some over-excitement with the Flyers, and hopefully some of these MMA cards coming up can breathe some life back into it.

I know i said it previously, but great grab at -140 and i think Hornbuckle wins this fight 8/9 out of 10 times.

 
Made a pretty large play on Paulo Thiago at -170. Also looking at Miranda -200 but haven't pulled the trigger yet.Considering a blind play on Mirko Cro Cop. I've never in all of my time betting MMA seen such an overwhelming amount of people backing one side as I am with Pat Barry in this fight. The fight to fade Cro Cop was JDS when the line closed with JDS being less of a favorite than Barry currently is. Of course we all know that Cro Cop has lost something, but if reports are true that he'd be hindered in his training by a knee injury (feels like every fighter coming off a stretch of disappointing appearances always has some kind of convenient story) then he may be getting severely undervalued here. Barry's obviously got some striking chops, but a potentially fully trained Cro Cop, likely fighting for his UFC career against a guy who is actually more 1 dementional than Mirko is should not be sitting at the number that he's currently at IMO.
nice snag with grabbing Thiago at -170. I think when i checked the lines he was -260. I think Ahrn posted it earlier, but i am a big Kampmann fan as well, but i think he loses this. I also am thinking a little bit with you about Cro Cop,and if he gets near +130 or something i will hedge a bit of my Barry bet. I think Barry has trained well for this fight, and i am not sure how Cro Cop wins without KO'ing Barry. I heard the arguments about Cro Cop maybe having an advantage on the ground, but I think Barry has improved his training camps since his loss to Hague. i actually think he won a grappling tournament a little bit ago, but i could be wrong (some interview with Ariel Helwanni at a UFC show)and why the love for Miranda? I am not too familiar with him, or maybe i just can't place the face right now. and a fight that should be a real good one on the undercard is Condit-McCrory. Really think that should be on the Spike prelim show, even though that would take it off the main card. Both guys could use the push with some more exposure. I don't know why the UFC keeps pushing Danzig and Wiman with putting them on the Spike prelims either, maybe they think that will pull in viewers. I was a Danzig fan before he went to TUF, and i don't know what happened to him.
Loiseau's a pretty one dimentional striker giving up a substantial reach advantage to a guy with better striking and more of a ground game in Miranda. I'll factor in a little bit of the fact that Miranda's probably out of the UFC if he suffers a second consecutive loss - the first having been to Gerald Harris who is a beast IMO. I'm still waiting on this one, but I think Miranda's got a good shot to carve out a nice little career in the UFC and it may very well start with a win against a guy with name and not all that much else in Loiseau.I'm pretty confident that Cro Cop will likely lose this fight, but for the first time in my life I'm really considering just a blind fade on what is an overwhelming consensus opinion. It'll be a half unit bet at most, just enough to pat myself on the back if it wins, but not enough to be truly pissed if it loses.
 
I just watched the Countdown show for 115, man those shows are done well because i am very confident in the Barry bet I have in there right now. I didn't realize his amateur career and how he did before entering MMA. Pretty impressive. And on Inside MMA last night he did mention he won a recent grappling tournament, so he has been working on that aspect of his game, and I am not worried about Cro Cop and him if it hits the ground. And i have some other bets, not overly confident in any of them, but we'll see:

Rory MacDonald - .66 unit. I am a Condit fan, but something just seems off with him since he entered the UFC. I believe he is back working with Arizona Combat, and with all of the rest of the guys leaving that camp a few months ago, I am not sure what kind of work he has had with what is left down there. MacDonald has all the hype in the world, and I think his fight against the Joker got his UFC jitters out of the way. I haven't seen a ton of MacDonald's fights, but I have learned to trust Joe Sillva with some his fight match-ups, and it looks like they are putting MacDonald on a faster track then other guys he has come in with. Not overly confident, but we'll see.

Dunham +190 - .33 unit. Hoping Griffin has some issues with ring rust and that Dunham can step up to this level. he has been impressive in his last few fights, so taking a chance here

Mike Pyle -115 .50 unit - All signs point to Pyle winning this fight. Lennox has good wrestling, but not much else. Pyle is an enigma, but we'll see what happens here.

Pat Barry +115, even - 2.5 units - This is the big boy i need to cash.

If it does, and sportsbook processes, i may put .40 unit on Chuck for action's sake, but not much more than that. It is hard to have faith in either guy with so many variables out there. I can't imagine Rich KO's Chuck, and I can't think that he would want to try that. The more i think about it, the more i think Franklin wins, so i guess i'm hoping that the Barry bet doesn't cash in time for the main event

I have $.05 account balance right now, so i can't buy out of any of these at this time. We'll see if some other things cash, and I may buy out a little on MacDonald.

 
Ended up with the following:

Paulo Thiago -150 1.5u to win 1u

Mario Miranda -200 2u to win 1u

Ben Rothwell -145 1.45u to win 1u

Rory MacDonald -130 1.3u to win 1u

I'll likely drunkenly add a bet on Franklin if the line drops any lower with my local. Money's been pouring in on Chuck since people found out he had abs.

This is actually a pretty decent card despite the lackluster main event. Should be a bunch of competitive, entertaining matchups. Hoping for a bounceback after my UFC 114 debacle.

 
Ended up with the following:Paulo Thiago -150 1.5u to win 1uMario Miranda -200 2u to win 1uBen Rothwell -145 1.45u to win 1uRory MacDonald -130 1.3u to win 1uI'll likely drunkenly add a bet on Franklin if the line drops any lower with my local. Money's been pouring in on Chuck since people found out he had abs.This is actually a pretty decent card despite the lackluster main event. Should be a bunch of competitive, entertaining matchups. Hoping for a bounceback after my UFC 114 debacle.
Your debacle was because of Diego and Rampage right? Rampage-Rashad was a tough call, and I think only Sebowski felt that Diego was in trouble. Still not sure what would have shown the downfall of Diego, and trying to see how to not miss that again. I think part of the point Sebowski brought up with Diego not evolving is linked to being with a "weak" camp and training partners. A heck of a lot of assuming on my part, but it might be a good indicator of guys who will level out. K-Flo is a good example, and so is Koscheck, of guys who expand their training, and get past relying on their athleticism.
 
I'm om Kampmann, Barry, and Chuck. Even put a little parlay on the three.

I might have my blinders on with Kampann as I've always been a fan. He looked great until Marquardt sent him down a division and has yet to fight at 170 as well as used to at 185. I still think he can. Paulo Thiago doesn't punch like Paul Daley and isn't half the size of Marquartd. You could even call Thiago a smaller Thiales Leites and Kampmann beat him. He has underrated JJ and good striking. I think he wins this one comfortably.

 
I'm om Kampmann, Barry, and Chuck. Even put a little parlay on the three. I might have my blinders on with Kampann as I've always been a fan. He looked great until Marquardt sent him down a division and has yet to fight at 170 as well as used to at 185. I still think he can. Paulo Thiago doesn't punch like Paul Daley and isn't half the size of Marquartd. You could even call Thiago a smaller Thiales Leites and Kampmann beat him. He has underrated JJ and good striking. I think he wins this one comfortably.
Kampmann tempts me too. I still think Thiago is a painfully under-rated fighter though, so i will likely add to Barry if I do anything. I just took Franklin at -110 for a little, with the thought that hopefully the line swings back and i can get Chuck with some + money. the line for this fight has been all over the place, with both guys having plus numbers at different points. And the free prelims o Spike are a great call by the UFC. They have me tempted to get this PPV when i had no intention to (UFC 116 is a must buy). That Danzig-Wyman fight was a little crazy, and good response by Danzig after it (trying to avoid any spoiler)
 
I'm om Kampmann, Barry, and Chuck. Even put a little parlay on the three. I might have my blinders on with Kampann as I've always been a fan. He looked great until Marquardt sent him down a division and has yet to fight at 170 as well as used to at 185. I still think he can. Paulo Thiago doesn't punch like Paul Daley and isn't half the size of Marquartd. You could even call Thiago a smaller Thiales Leites and Kampmann beat him. He has underrated JJ and good striking. I think he wins this one comfortably.
Kampmann tempts me too. I still think Thiago is a painfully under-rated fighter though, so i will likely add to Barry if I do anything. I just took Franklin at -110 for a little, with the thought that hopefully the line swings back and i can get Chuck with some + money. the line for this fight has been all over the place, with both guys having plus numbers at different points. And the free prelims o Spike are a great call by the UFC. They have me tempted to get this PPV when i had no intention to (UFC 116 is a must buy). That Danzig-Wyman fight was a little crazy, and good response by Danzig after it (trying to avoid any spoiler)
There might not be any title implications tonight, but the matchups are fantastic. I only have the main event as a possibility for a decision.
 
115 thread somewhere?
you're looking at it.
:lol: this thread has apparently concentrated the UFC/MMA interest.tonight I got:MacDonaldYvel (completely not sure about this one)ThiagoBarry (but oh how I'd love for Cro Cop to take this and shine one last time)and I'm picking the Iceman to take the decision win against Franklinalso, I'm picking myself in 6 rounds vs. this bottle of Bacardi<Mills Lane voice> let's get it on!
 
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Watching with the Brazilian commentary team. Was Rogan slobbering over MacDonald's nuts during the fight as much as the post-fight interview led me to believe? To me, the fight was even going into the third round butt-whoopin', but whatever.

 
Watching with the Brazilian commentary team. Was Rogan slobbering over MacDonald's nuts during the fight as much as the post-fight interview led me to believe? To me, the fight was even going into the third round butt-whoopin', but whatever.
yeah, lots of typical Rogan hype going on. I thought the first round went to MacDonald, second round was harder to score, but I thought the stoppage was pretty bad. Condit was pounding on him pretty good but I didn't think MacDonald was defending himself any worse at the end than he was through most of the last two minutes or so.
 
I'm not terribly upset about that stop. The ref should make his call without regard to the clock. He had seen enough and I didn't necc. disagree. He was getting smashed.

 
Watching with the Brazilian commentary team. Was Rogan slobbering over MacDonald's nuts during the fight as much as the post-fight interview led me to believe? To me, the fight was even going into the third round butt-whoopin', but whatever.
it's funny watching it without listening to Goldie and Rogan. I watched it in French for Rampage-Rashad (not proud of that, but i have bought almsot every PPV except for 1 or 2 from about 56 on, so i didn't feel too bad), and you certainly get a different opinion of the fight. It was funny because i was listening to the commentary and not watching it as much, and the commentary had you thinking it was almost certain that Rory won the first 2 rounds. it did look like the 3rd could go 10-8 though, making it a draw. And i am thinking if i am on this card and getting ready, i would want to avoid the judges. Not sure how they saw the Griffin-Dunham fight 29-28 for Griffin
 
Wow. I don't care about a single fight on this card. ppv at least every month now? I guess they're getting while the getting is good. I won't even bother watching this one online

 
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Agree 100% on the stoppage

His head was bouncing off the mat pretty hard every time Condit connected

And hid defense at that point seemed to consist mainly of flailing around and hoping Condit missed

As he himself said, Condit was "kicking [his] ###"

Wish they showed judges' cards even if there was a stoppage

Really wonder how that would have gone

 
Wow. I don't care about a single fight on this card. ppv at least every month now? I guess they're getting while the getting is good. I won't even bother watching this one online
Rothwell looks like he is better shape than he has been recentlyNoticeably lighter IMO
Pretty crazy fight, not exactly what i was expecting. I have liked Yvel for a bit, even though he has been a deuche in the past. He has either matured or something, but he seems to be sorry for all of that. Not looking great for him, but he has improved his gameEDIT: I can't tell if Rothwell's ground game has been over-rated or if Yvel is that powerful and has a pretty good ground game at this point
 
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Rothwell does look lighter and quicker. Nice escapes by Yvel there but he just can't stay off his back.

Rogan: "he's had a lot of experience being mounted there"

 
Agree 100% on the stoppageHis head was bouncing off the mat pretty hard every time Condit connectedAnd hid defense at that point seemed to consist mainly of flailing around and hoping Condit missedAs he himself said, Condit was "kicking [his] ###"Wish they showed judges' cards even if there was a stoppageReally wonder how that would have gone
:shrug: Have to protect the fighter there. Better if the ref doesn't know/care how much time is left. A stoppage is a stoppage.
 
Agree 100% on the stoppage

His head was bouncing off the mat pretty hard every time Condit connected

And hid defense at that point seemed to consist mainly of flailing around and hoping Condit missed

As he himself said, Condit was "kicking [his] ###"

Wish they showed judges' cards even if there was a stoppage

Really wonder how that would have gone
i competely agree with the bolded. It would be a great way to allow commissions to further evaluate their judges too. Strange when 2 judges give one guy 30-27, and the other guy gives the fight 29-28 for the other guy. Not saying Dunham winning was that obvious, but always strange when the judges see fights that different. I guess the judges only have to hand their cards in at the end of the fights? If so, i wonder if they really judge each round independent of the others, or not
 
Agree 100% on the stoppageHis head was bouncing off the mat pretty hard every time Condit connectedAnd hid defense at that point seemed to consist mainly of flailing around and hoping Condit missedAs he himself said, Condit was "kicking [his] ###"Wish they showed judges' cards even if there was a stoppageReally wonder how that would have gone
:goodposting: Have to protect the fighter there. Better if the ref doesn't know/care how much time is left. A stoppage is a stoppage.
but by that reasoning why didn't he stop the fight anytime in the last two minutes, though? I just felt like MacDonald was defending himself at about the same level at the stopping point as he had been through most of the round, so why pick that moment?no big deal though, most everyone seems to feel it was a fair stoppage.
 

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