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UFC wagering: no longer stuck with the old thread title. The window to change it is here! (7 Viewers)
- Thread starter AhrnCityPahnder
- Start date
modogg
Footballguy
Yup. I'm not sure how he'll do against some of the bigger 155'ers, but the kid is slick and looks like he'll be a force. Could have the beginning stages like the Carwin, JDS, Valazquez takeover of the HWY division with Charles and Dunham coming up in the 155'ers.Wow, Charles is slick! Jumped on Efrain's back with his right arm already trapped and took care of business!
modogg
Footballguy
Wow, I almost had a clean sweep with this event. I had a parlay in of:
Nate Marquardt
Oliveira
Cole miller
Kyle Kingsbury
Dave Branch
Rafael natal
i had $10 on it to win a lot. Worst part is I threw Natal in at the end because I heard he was pretty much a lock over Atonnito. I can't complain too much about having a pretty kick ### night of wins, but still, what could have been
Nate Marquardt
Oliveira
Cole miller
Kyle Kingsbury
Dave Branch
Rafael natal
i had $10 on it to win a lot. Worst part is I threw Natal in at the end because I heard he was pretty much a lock over Atonnito. I can't complain too much about having a pretty kick ### night of wins, but still, what could have been
Cliff Clavin
Footballguy
Wow, Charles is slick! Jumped on Efrain's back with his right arm already trapped and took care of business!
Quickly becoming a big fan of this guy. Didn't get to see much out of him in his first fight (he ended it too damn quick!) but he looked very impressive. I'm not sure if I like his chances against some of the better wrestlers but he looks like he'll put on a show every fight.
modogg
Footballguy
Alright, help me out with this line here:
UFC - UFC 123 - Welterweight Matchup
11/20/10 4955 Matt Hughes -125
23:00 ET BJ Penn -105
I am as pissed with BJ as anybody because he cost me more money then I should have had on him in his fight against Frankie, but Hughes favored here seems like a bad line, no? I didn't unload on this yet because there is a lot of time between now and 11/20, and i don't anticipate too much significant line movement here. I just have a hard time seeing Hughes beat BJ again, and I think that BJ knows if he loses this fight his legacy is pretty much shot with losing 2 in a row to Hughes, and 3 in a row to Frankie Edgar. I guess BJ is hard to trust at this point, but is this not an obvious play?
UFC - UFC 123 - Welterweight Matchup
11/20/10 4955 Matt Hughes -125
23:00 ET BJ Penn -105
I am as pissed with BJ as anybody because he cost me more money then I should have had on him in his fight against Frankie, but Hughes favored here seems like a bad line, no? I didn't unload on this yet because there is a lot of time between now and 11/20, and i don't anticipate too much significant line movement here. I just have a hard time seeing Hughes beat BJ again, and I think that BJ knows if he loses this fight his legacy is pretty much shot with losing 2 in a row to Hughes, and 3 in a row to Frankie Edgar. I guess BJ is hard to trust at this point, but is this not an obvious play?
AhrnCityPahnder
Yinz-o-riffic
That line seems about right to me. BJs first fight moving back to 170 where Hughes will have a significant strength advantage (again). Of course BJ could win, but not sure I'd count on it.
D'OHtis
Footballguy
I got to meet and talk to Hughes little over a month ago outside of St. Louis. Pretty cool as I grew up only 15-20 miles from where he did (and not many big name guys come from the area). Surprised he's fighting so soon as he said he'd next be fighting next sometime likely after Feb/March. Wanted to take some time to spend with family & hunt. Guess the Penn loss changed things. Definitely look forward to the fight. I'm taking Hughes. BJ looked so lackadaisical vs. Edgar.
AhrnCityPahnder
Yinz-o-riffic
Chael Sonnon popped for PEDs at his 117 test.
http://www.sherdog.com/news/news/CSAC-Sonn...t-UFC-117-26978
http://www.sherdog.com/news/news/CSAC-Sonn...t-UFC-117-26978
Cliff Clavin
Footballguy
Couldn't have happened to a nicer guyChael Sonnon popped for PEDs at his 117 test.
Am now glad he didn't win.
Cliff Clavin
Footballguy
Belfort has pulled out (or been pulled out) of the Okami fight and will now get a shot at Silva. Marquardt will face Okami at 122 in the #1 contender fight.
I dig it.Cliff Clavin said:
modogg
Footballguy
An interesting video here around the 3:50 mark, especially for you non-Chael Sonnen fans. A serious Wandy is not a guy i want to be on the wrong side of. I don't care how ol, decrepit, etc. he gets. he could get KO's in his next 10 fights, and he would still be intimidating: http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2010/9/22/17054...ls-chael-sonnen
Edit to Add: Chael will also be on MMA Live this week on ESPN 2 (thursday at 1:00 or 1:30 a.m.). Will be interesting to hear what he has to say.
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Cliff Clavin
Footballguy
I can't help but think that Mir is pretty much "guaranteed" money this weekend. Cro Cop has looked horrible since joining the UFC, he took the fight on short notice and has an eye injury from training. Here is a quote from him:
Doesn't sound like a guy who thinks he can win.Cro Cops last few fights have been unimpressive to say the least. Barry could/should have finished him early but for some baffling reason let Mirko keep fighting. Didn't Barry also break his hand early in that fight? Either way, it was not an impressive fight for Cro Cop and Mir is a big step up from Barry.Last time I checked I could still get -255... does anyone have a decent reason not to unload on this?
sheerterror
Footballguy
Substantial play on Mir tonight for me. I'm a Frank Mir hater but I just can't figure out how he loses this fight if he truly believes in his illusions of another title shot. While I by no means believe that Mir is a truly elite HW, he's being severely undervalued how based on previous losses to Lesnar and Carwin. What do these opponents have in common? Both men had substantial size and strength advantages on Mir, and used them to their advantage to bully Mir. Lesnar was able to take him down with ease and grind him up, while Carwin pinned him against the cage and beat the ever loving #### out of him. Cro Cop lacks the size, strength and ability to take either one of these avenues to beat Mir. Mir has been known to turtle up and have his heart ripped out in fights once he starts absorbing punishment - but Cro Cop has not shown the ferocity (nor ability) to inflict this type of punishment upon anyone in his time in the UFC. Mir has given up on his aspirations to be a big, strong wrestler like Carwin and Lesnar, and has dropped quite a bit of weight for this fight as compared to what he weighed heading into his bout against Carwin - yet he still holds a 25-30lb size advantage over the oft undersized Cro Cop which leads me to believe he will be closer to the form he showed when he beat down a severely deteriorated Nogueira. I don't believe for a second that Cro Cop's worn down body has enough juice left to hammer Mir with the precise, powerful shots that would be necessary to take the fight out of Mir and finish him. In the event that he starts landing, I'd expect Mir to immediately take this to the ground - where he should be able to use his size and strength advantage to overpower Cro Cop's once stout takedown defense, and finish with a sub or TKO. The line is shifting back towards Mir (he's even available at -199 at Pinnacle at the moment but prices at US books won't get there.) I'm in at -240 for quite a bit.
Sean McCorkle +190 for 1u. This is predominantly a fade Mark Hunt. Why is this guy over a 2 to 1 favorite to ANYBODY? He hasn't won in what, 4 or 5 years and doesn't give a damn about the sport. He certainly hits hard but McCorkle has supreme confidence in his abilities and enjoys a nice size advantage and has said he will take Hunt to the ground where Hunt's grappling ineptitude will likely cost him should it get there. Very live dog here in my opinion and worth a play.
Matt Serra +120 for .5u. A little bit of a homer play but I love Serra's heart and stand up defense. Lytle is going to try to stand and brawl like he always does in hopes of landing another bonus check, but this will be a mistake against Matt Serra who has excellent ability to land his wild, looping haymakers while also minimizing the damage he takes.
Sean Sherk +190 for .5u. Sherk's finally back after he cost me 4 digits in his decision loss to Frankie Edgar over a year ago. Reports are that this time off was to finally allow some lingering injuries to heal and Sherk has said that in this time off, he's analyzed how good some of these up and comers in the LW division are. He knows how well rounded everyone is and has said something to the effect of he'll be making sure he utilizes his strengths (read: good ol' fashioned boring lay n' pray wrestling) to neutralize Dunham's game. A guy with Sherk's wrestling ability is worth a small play at + vig to me.
TJ Grant -150 for 1u
I'm going to continue dabbling in the Quickest Sub of the Night Props with these 3:
McCorkle +500 for .5 baby units
Thiago Tavares +1000 for 1 baby unit
TJ Grant +700 for 1 baby unit
Good luck everyone!
Sean McCorkle +190 for 1u. This is predominantly a fade Mark Hunt. Why is this guy over a 2 to 1 favorite to ANYBODY? He hasn't won in what, 4 or 5 years and doesn't give a damn about the sport. He certainly hits hard but McCorkle has supreme confidence in his abilities and enjoys a nice size advantage and has said he will take Hunt to the ground where Hunt's grappling ineptitude will likely cost him should it get there. Very live dog here in my opinion and worth a play.
Matt Serra +120 for .5u. A little bit of a homer play but I love Serra's heart and stand up defense. Lytle is going to try to stand and brawl like he always does in hopes of landing another bonus check, but this will be a mistake against Matt Serra who has excellent ability to land his wild, looping haymakers while also minimizing the damage he takes.
Sean Sherk +190 for .5u. Sherk's finally back after he cost me 4 digits in his decision loss to Frankie Edgar over a year ago. Reports are that this time off was to finally allow some lingering injuries to heal and Sherk has said that in this time off, he's analyzed how good some of these up and comers in the LW division are. He knows how well rounded everyone is and has said something to the effect of he'll be making sure he utilizes his strengths (read: good ol' fashioned boring lay n' pray wrestling) to neutralize Dunham's game. A guy with Sherk's wrestling ability is worth a small play at + vig to me.
TJ Grant -150 for 1u
I'm going to continue dabbling in the Quickest Sub of the Night Props with these 3:
McCorkle +500 for .5 baby units
Thiago Tavares +1000 for 1 baby unit
TJ Grant +700 for 1 baby unit
Good luck everyone!
AhrnCityPahnder
Yinz-o-riffic
Agree strongly with the Serra and Mir calls. I expect Duhman to win but Sherk at +200ish isn't a terrible idea.
Sheerterror -- do you post with the same name on MMAJunkie forums? saw a user there yesterday was wondering if it was you.
Sheerterror -- do you post with the same name on MMAJunkie forums? saw a user there yesterday was wondering if it was you.
sheerterror
Footballguy
Nope, not me. I lurk there but don't post.
Sebowski
Footballguy
Parlayed 1u on McCorkle and Mir
Also for the hell of it did a $10 parlay on Sherk, Stephens, Serra, and Doerksen to pay $334. Doerksen is my biggest worry there, but he is a vet. Doloway doesn't always show up to fight. He can be frustrated easily. Pretty cool if this paid off.
Also for the hell of it did a $10 parlay on Sherk, Stephens, Serra, and Doerksen to pay $334. Doerksen is my biggest worry there, but he is a vet. Doloway doesn't always show up to fight. He can be frustrated easily. Pretty cool if this paid off.
Abrantes
Footballguy
Still think Cro Cop has a good shot at winning this. Despite his heavy hands, Mir isn't a particularly technical striker and doesn't respond well when he gets hit. Cro Cop isn't the feared knockout machine of his prime, but he's still dangerous and his takedown defense is still very good. The argument that Cro Cop would be at a disadvantage in the later rounds doesn't hold much water when you realize that historically, Mir fades even quicker when the fight lasts past the first round.Lots of gut feelings in these picks, but here we go:
Cro Cop
Nogueira (contingent on a hard-fought battle and Bader tiring out like in previous fights)
Lytle
Dunham
Stephens
Doerksen (wily veteran~! and Dollaway loves getting subbed)
Mitrione
Tavares (please)
Lopez
Grant
Hunt (training at ATT for the past year, and apparently rededicated, as evidenced by the weight loss; McCorkle is fun, but I'm not willing to bet on him quite yet)
modogg
Footballguy
I have been sleeping a bit on this event, but i have some small plays for action sake. Some of the line movement has been crazy. I took Waylon Lowe at -115 yesterday, and he is -180 today. Mitrione moved a ton from when i took him as well
Mir - 1.5 unit
Mitrione - 1.5 unit
Lytle - 1 unit (he has looked good lately. I think the fight will be a good candidate for FON, but Lytle is certainly savvy enough to take Serra since Serra's only significant win since his TKO over GSP was against Trigg)
Lowe - .66 unit
Little Nog - .66 unit
Sherk and McCorkle - .40 unit each (tailing Sheer for the hell of it. I hate betting on Sherk again, but i will give this dope a chance. And I love Mark Hunt, but Sheer is right that there is no reason he should be such a favorite. I feel like i should be putting more on McCokrle here)
Funny how looking at it now i got more on the line tonight then i would want to have. I tore it up at the UFC fight Night, but i don't have much confidence in many of these bets.
This card should be better then people are making it sound tonight, but that WEC card coming up this week should be real good.
Mir - 1.5 unit
Mitrione - 1.5 unit
Lytle - 1 unit (he has looked good lately. I think the fight will be a good candidate for FON, but Lytle is certainly savvy enough to take Serra since Serra's only significant win since his TKO over GSP was against Trigg)
Lowe - .66 unit
Little Nog - .66 unit
Sherk and McCorkle - .40 unit each (tailing Sheer for the hell of it. I hate betting on Sherk again, but i will give this dope a chance. And I love Mark Hunt, but Sheer is right that there is no reason he should be such a favorite. I feel like i should be putting more on McCokrle here)
Funny how looking at it now i got more on the line tonight then i would want to have. I tore it up at the UFC fight Night, but i don't have much confidence in many of these bets.
This card should be better then people are making it sound tonight, but that WEC card coming up this week should be real good.
sheerterror
Footballguy
LOL McCorkle with the Sub victory 1:03 into the first round. Cashes the +190 dog and should hold up on the +500 quickest sub of the night prop.
Abrantes
Footballguy
Ah, vintage Mark Hunt.
sheerterror
Footballguy
Gotta love getting kimura'd while in guard.Ah, vintage Mark Hunt.
Sudoku_in_the_Bathtub
Footballguy
Mitrione looked pretty good. A lot more action than I expected out of a HW fight. He's definitely improved.
I remember him from TUF. Marcus Jones got in his face. Mitrione should have just breathed heavily on Jones's chin to knock him out.
I remember him from TUF. Marcus Jones got in his face. Mitrione should have just breathed heavily on Jones's chin to knock him out.
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modogg
Footballguy
Yeah, i am becoming a Mitrione fan since he has been putting some nice cash in my accounts as of late. Certainly not ready for a big step up in competition at this point, but he has a chin and can keep busy enough to take on quite a few in the UFC
Abrantes
Footballguy
If you don't want to get spoiled, maybe you shouldn't come into the thread during the friggin' show. Wonder what people are talking about!
Sebowski
Footballguy
It was during the card, but before anything was being aired. Only way to know is to be there or read the live blogs. Sounds like a spoiler to me. I popped in to see what else people were playing.If you don't want to get spoiled, maybe you shouldn't come into the thread during the friggin' show. Wonder what people are talking about!Wonder what happens in this one!
KGB
Footballguy
modogg
Footballguy
Where was this Sean Sherk when he was fighting Frankie Edgar 
Good call with Sherk Sheer, and McCorkle as well. I am hoping though your Serra call doesn't pan out as well, i just realized i have 2 nice parlays out there from the UFC Fight Night with the final legs of the parlays being Badar and Lytle. If those hit my 5dimes acct. will have some nice breathing room.
Good call with Sherk Sheer, and McCorkle as well. I am hoping though your Serra call doesn't pan out as well, i just realized i have 2 nice parlays out there from the UFC Fight Night with the final legs of the parlays being Badar and Lytle. If those hit my 5dimes acct. will have some nice breathing room.
Dunham bloody but winning handely.Where was this Sean Sherk when he was fighting Frankie Edgar
modogg
Footballguy
I'm half-watching the fight, but everytime i look I see Sherk non and Dunham bloody everywhere. Never can be sure how the judges will score the fight, but either way Sherk looks a lot better i this fight then the last time he was in the octagon.Dunham bloody but winning handely.Where was this Sean Sherk when he was fighting Frankie Edgar
Sudoku_in_the_Bathtub
Footballguy
29-28 Dunham
Hell of a fight. Thought it could go either way, but Sherk pulls it out.
Hell of a fight. Thought it could go either way, but Sherk pulls it out.
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AhrnCityPahnder
Yinz-o-riffic
watShandella's pretty ugly, no?
modogg
Footballguy
Man, 2 split decisions to start the PPV. You have to think Dunham and Stevenson are sitting in the back with their fingers crossed to pull in the Fight of the Night award. and the booing of Sherk in that spot is a little rough. it wasn't like his old days of lay and pray, he at least was going at it with Dunham.
Horrible decision. Besides cutting him sherk did nothing while dunham pummeled him.
Tremendous Upside
Footballguy
New octagon girl tonight is hot
Kinda has a Taylor Swift but hot and curvy vibe about her
Kinda has a Taylor Swift but hot and curvy vibe about her
KGB
Footballguy
I walked out of the room during the decision. Thought it was a no brainer. Sherk won?
Somehow the judges gave him the decision, no idea how as sherk did nothing whole fight besides swing and missI walked out of the room during the decision. Thought it was a no brainer. Sherk won?
KGB
Footballguy
Wow, awful decisionSomehow the judges gave him the decision, no idea how as sherk did nothing whole fight besides swing and missI walked out of the room during the decision. Thought it was a no brainer. Sherk won?
modogg
Footballguy
Good call with Bader tiring out in the 3rd. It is like he assumed he won the first 2 rounds and was just trying to coast through the 3rd. I think i have the fight 29-28 Bader, but the judges can score it all over the placeI'm guessing the line will be Jon Jones -220 vs. Ryan Bader +170. I think Jones will tear up Bader, and hopefully that line comes in a little gentler
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modogg
Footballguy
Dana can't be too excited about this main event. At least they can go to a shot of Randy to get the crowd to stop booing. I unloaded a bit on Frank before this fight, and he is way too tentative here to have me thinking he is definitely winning this fight. I have to think he is winning 20-18 after 2 rounds simply based off the fact that Mirko did not do anything.