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I dunno. Maybe I'm just drinking the Maia koolaid but I will be steering clear of this one. I agree that Marquardt could win for all the reasons you state above, but I think Maia's BJJ is just on another level. Without a doubt this is going to be Maia's toughest match to date, but Maia has been making his opponents look like small children lately. I'm very much excited for this one as a fight fan, but as far as wagering goes....yikes.
Should be a great one for sure. In the end, I think Marquardt is just going to be too strong and experienced to Maia to be able to pull guard on in an attempt to get that submission. At close to even money, I love the guy that has to me, several paths to victory over the guy who really seems to only have 1.Strikeforce tonight:Ishida +200 .5u to win 1uCyborg -175 to win .5uParlay: Mousasi, Cyborg, Werdum, HieronI'd love to get some action down on Mousasi and I really do believe he's the next big thing, but I don't like him at -220 or whatever it is. Not against a fighter as experienced as Babalu, and not when he was -150 or whatever when this fight was originally slated for the Affliction card.I'm going to keep an eye on how Mousasi looks with the extra weight tonight, and see how much damage he takes. He's fighting Sokoudjou in 6 weeks at Dream.11 and could present some major value there. I'm hoping for anything under -200 in that fight.
I completely agree with you regarding Mousasi's next fight too. even if he loses, i think i will be taking him against Sokoudjou. i actually went with Carano tonight. probably was talked into it, but i really give the advantage to Gina in cardio over Cyborg. Huge difference fighting 3 3 minute rounds to now fighting 5 5 minute rounds. Working with Extreme Couture i have to think Gina will be in good shape. Cyborg does have insane striking, but her last i was surprised she couldn't put away Barnett's girl. i think my final card is something like:Ishida +155 for 1uCarano +155 for .5ubabalu +210 for .33uJT Money +175 for .5uif i can go 2-2 i will have a winning night. I don't know much about the undercard bets, and my acct. does not have the luxury of taking any chances these days.
When first announced, I thought Cyborg, but I've slowly moved to Carano over the last few weeks. Cyborg has been impressive lately, but her opponents have been much smaller than Carano. If Carano can weather the early punishment, Cyborg should tire out by the third or fourth. I like Carano via TKO in the fourth.
Yup, i ran the same route with this fight. Was thinking Cyborg definately when it first came out, and have changed my mind a bit. I think not only has Cyborg fought smaller opponents, but i think Gina has had a little better competition. I also think Gina is used to being in the spotlight, and "bigger" fights, while Cyborg has not been in the limelight. I have to wonder if this will effect her performance. One of my main reasons for changing who i thought would win is the fact that Cyborg trains a lot with her husband. I can see a similar fight for her tonight, come out guns blazing, but come the 3rd or 4th round, we'll see what she has left in the gas tank.
Remind me to keep all non-UFC bets on cards i am not that familiar with to .5 unit bets. Sheer i hope you did your parlay and stuff, i think you did alright. I went 0-4, and went heavier then i should have on them.
Split the sides, won the parlay so it ended up being a profitable card.Pleased that I was happy with Mousasi, but damn I didn't expect that! He's got some very, crisp striking and quite a bit of power. I wish that line was sub -200 so I would have had the balls to play it straight.Mousasi -(anything less than 300) over Sokoudjou and I'm all in.sheerterror said:
Oof.And that was the sloppy death of women's MMA.Clayton Gray said:
I'd take him at -kagillon in that matchup.
Like those plays that much?As for the site - I like Sportsbook. Most of my action is done at SB, and I find that have pretty decent lines as compared to Betus and Diamond - but I know people like Bodog. Betus will be good for betting dogs usually, and you can parlay fights there - which is HUGE in MMA. SB, you cannot. I'd like to set up shop at another site or two, but there's simply not enough MMA (that I know enough about) to bet for me to justify tying up anymore money than I already have at BetUs and Sportsbook. I'm lucky because I use a local that I can bet on credit with. Usually slow to post lines, but I can parlay there as well.
Yes I do. Thanks for the info. I definitely want a site that I can parlay. Do you store a credit card with sportsbook, checking account, or western union?Performity disagrees with me though. He just picked Coutre and is picking to Jardine to win, though he bet on Silva when he was a bigger dog.
http://www.sherdog.com/news/articles/1/wec...t-classes-19341Ask Dana how many of the new TUF guys he sees making a difference in the UFC HW division. and/orit seems to me that the cappers i check out for these events seem to be a little all over the place. BJ seems to be the one everybody is taking, so i won't add much t what i already have on Kenny. i did throw a little on Riddle and maybe a little on the Barn Cat. Funny, i am completely throwing out my thoughts on not betting this event.
I'll be at the UFC Q&A tomorrow, where our guest will be Dana and Lorenzo. ANybody have anything they want me to ask them. I'll also be at the weigh-ins, and hope to catch some fighters pre-fight parties and such. I know Kenny is hosting something with tapout at one of the low class strip joints that is BYOB, so i will probably make my way to that one.
but to the Q&A, i hope it is kick ###. the only thing i can think of to ask Dana and Lorenzo is about a tournament structure. i know they have discussed it over and over again, but something like the 4th season of TUF, or what DREAM does, could work. we'll see, but any other thoughts please post them
With the growing stable of fighters and venues, how close are we to seeing a UFC card every week, or every other week?
How do you think Bob Kraft would feel if Brady told him he needed to take a year off to film a movie? Sure it isn't a perfect analogy (no such thing), but it is close enough. I will agree that it is hypocritical of him to then turn around and have a champion film TUF for 4 months and then wait for it all to air before fighting though. I love that he isn't PC. Everything else is too PC. He is proving it is all BS. I wish the other leagues learned more from him rather than the other way around. Maybe then a player could be happy about scoring a TD and not get fined for it.
I'm aware of the longterm friendship/partnership of the Ferrita's and White, and how they took this company from nothing to a monster organization. I probably worded that statement poorly - I didn't mean it as though they just handed him over ownership of this gigantic money making company, they/he put a TON of work into the UFC and all deserve the money they are making off of it. My point is - White was afforded a rare opportunity to come in and put this organization (and this sport, really) on the map and has in turn, made millions and millions of dollars off of it. That's just not something that happens too often.As for the previous paragraph - I was not under the impression that Rampage was going to need to take off any significant amount of time from fighting to shoot for this movie. But this type of treatment of a fighter is relatively commonplace from White. IIRC, he basically blacklisted Ortiz because Tito wanted to branch out and use his popularity to make himself more money outside of the fight game as well. Could be wrong there though. But Ortiz at the time, much like Rampage now, were/are among if not the biggest names in the entire UFC - so as I said, if it were to not effect training and fighting, why would there be an issue with allowing them to make as much money as possible as they can.
Rampage pulls $250K a fight I believe.
You're right. That's why I threw in the hyporcrocy of having top fighters do TUF. I don't blame Rampage at all, but I still love Dana's reaction to it and understand it. Rampage is a different fighter when he is on top of his game. He isn't as great as he thinks he is. He really should be 100% focused on Rashad if he intends on being a great champion. I'm not sure he does though. He did turn down a fight with Machida to do TUF and fight Rashad. Rampage loves the spotlight and he is trying to secure it beyond when he starts losing more than he wins (which may be sooner rather than later).sheerterror said:
one thing i think you find with MMA bets vs. other sports bets is differences in lines. Like Sheer, i would like to have an account at one or 2 additional places and do a little bit of line shopping. and some books put soe lines up faster then others, it really pays off when you get a line like -250 for Fitch for UFC 100. Sportsbook and betus are good one's and quite a few books have good deals now for football. I think 5dimes is one i would like to look into more as well.
i think Dana has changed his ways a bit with this. I think the thing you referenced above with Tito vs. Dana is jsut Tito-Dana. those 2 have a funny relationship. I mean Dana has been good with letting guys have crazy sponsors (condom depot when you are trying to grow and be mainstream may hurt), and he has been fine with all of the guys that did movies. Yes, this would take more of Rampage's time, and i think Dana's comments are jsut saying to Rampage don't be a dope. And let me jsut say there are some terrible movies these guys in the UFC and MMA in general have been in. the one i like best is the Larry the Cable Guy one that Keith Jardine is. Maybe it wasn't Larry the cable guy, but it was that whole redneck thing and maybe the movie was called something like "beer for my horses". It is just a terrible movie.Anyway, the UFC helped Rampage a lot when he had his incident after losing to Forrest, and they helped him recoup there. the funny thing lately was Dana's big statement about any guy in the EA MMA game won't be in the UFC, then they put Randy on the cover of the game. Dana just acts like that sometimes, but i think behind closed doors he comes around. he has improved.
Much like King Mo tonight, that line is unbettable because anything can happen - but I think we all truly know that Rogers has virtually no chance against Fedor.Decent looking parlay although I don't know enough about Russo to back him. I think Munoz is a solid play and I'll probably have him included in a parlay or two tomorrow. Although pretty much every write up guy I follow seems to agree on a play on Vera, I can't bring myself to do it. I just hate Vera too much and I guess I'm a legit Soszynski fan - I'll certainly be rooting for him, but I think he flies under the radar a bit and has a legitimate chance against Vera. FWIW, I would have hammered Vera against Matt Hamill for sure, but what else is new, we lose out on a great opportunity due to injury or something else.
I like Leben a bit tonight, and I think he's flown under the radar with the more appealing matchups of Jardine-Silva, Marquardt-Maia and Nog-Couture. I like what you've done with your parlays, but I'd be scared ####less of having literally every bet tied to Gonzaga-Tuchshererererer. Especially since it's an undercard fight, if Gabe loses, you're gonna be in a badddd mood the rest of the night and won't be able to enjoy any of the fights. I employed a similar strategy at UFC 100 with Brock, which worked well for the most part - except since Bonnar was tied into a bunch of my plays as well and he lost on the undercard fight, I knew I was in for a mediocre night at best.I wish you luck on this strategy man, but after that Bonnar fight, I decided to retire from backing moderate talent at such stiff odds. Gabe's known to light up mediocre competition, but I think you may be a bit overexposed on this one given Tuch's pro MMA experience as well as his training with Lesnar's camp.
I'm basically using free money for tonight so I won't be too pissed if I lose. I had a 50% deposit bonus and I reloaded my account getting ready for football season. Gonzaga has to know that he's got a foot out the door already and a loss tonight may be the end of the UFC career. Lost 3 of 5 and already on the under-card, this is a must win for him.Gonzaga is on another level talent-wise compared to Bonnar. There aren't too many guys I'd employ this strategy against, but Gonzaga vs a guy making his UFC debut is one of them. Tuchscherer has never fought someone anywhere near as tough as Gonzaga. His stiffest opponent so far has been Travis Wiuff, whom he lost to. If it wasn't all bonus money, I probably wouldn't have parlayed him with my singles.
Yeah, i am not postive on it either. I just wrote a little in the other wagering thread, but Tuchscherer looks like a live dog. I'm a Gonzaga fan, but he hasn't been overly impressive after his KO of Cro Cop. Carwin and Randy are certainly the top of the heap, but I watched the Gonzaga-Werdum fight the other day again, and I think Tuchscherer has a puncher's chance in this. He trains at MMAA with Lesnar and those guys up there and he is 17-1, all against cans, but they say he has a strong punch. he should win, but i won't be overly surprised if he loses. I think parlaying with Marquardt or Munoz or Russow may work better. I think Russo is the safest bet, not because i know a ton about him, but because i know that Justin "Nsane 1" McCully is just a terrible fighter. i think most of the bets have been discussed, but one other i took awhile ago was on Marcus Aurelio. not a very thought out bet, but i alsways thought Aurelio was pretty good. small bet though
Who else is in that camp? I don't think that Lesnar would be the ideal training partner other than learning on how to deal with someone ridiculously strong and maybe pick up some wrestling skill.I don't think Gonzaga looked that bad against Carwin. He just about KO'd him and controlled the fight until he got caught... and as we all know, Carwin has ridiculous power.You guys almost have me putting some on Tuchscherer... damnit!
The only other fighter I know in that camp is Sherk. If there's one thing I'm going to take out of MMAA, it's that they are good wrestlers and they are going to be well conditioned. Most agree, this is Gabe's fight to lose - but like I said earlier, I think you may be a little overexposed. If Tuch has the power he could have for a man his size, you're always going to be that one shot away from the fight ending real quickly. Gabe loss = your night sucks, and it sucks early on. Ride with me on Nate straight up.
my sportsbook account is almost down to pennies, but i'll join you here. the lines the day of fights, and even up to 15 minutes before the fights really move quite a bit. i know i got good value with GSP and Lesnar right before they went on.
I hope they show a specific fight from the undercard. I won't mention it so as to not ruin it for anyone else (got itchy, wanted to see how some did) and i saw i already lost one. The reason for the rolling eyes is a possible factor I did not factor at all when thinking of betting this card. The scorecard for this particluar fight was the winner won 2 rounds 29-28 and 30-27. the 3rd judge had it for the loser 29-28. when i first was typing it i misread it and thought the loser had a 30-27 score, but still having 2 round differential is a real pain. the judging in some states is a little more unpredictable, i know some athletic commissions put boxing judges on for MMA fights, and the scoring can get kind of weird. We'll see.
Jesus Sheer, remind me next time you like a guy a lot to put my life savings on it. Great call on taking Nate heavy, helps out a bit. Just wishing i would have hit it even harder, but that is how it always goes. Great call manEdit: don't chase one loss with another pick you are unsure of. i think i unfortunately will end up around even for this card, maybe a little up because of 2 late add-ons that were heavier then original bets i made. oh well, looking forward to the 3 fight cards in September (i think Dana said there are 3) to catch up a little here and go on top.sheerterror said:
The story of the last 3 UFC PPVs. Great night that could have been the best of my life if 1 fight comes through. This time around, it's Leben, 100 was Bonnar and 101 was Leites. I still made quite a bit thanks to going excessively heavy on Marquardt, but in hindsight, I should have had every parlay tied to Leben - win or lose, dumb play management on my part. I also was in a position after the undercard was over to hedge off of Leben a bit since I had about almost 4 units on him to win around 5.5u. Even a small hedging off on Rosholt would have been logical, but I'm always swinging for the fences. Oh well, busy next few weeks with UFN and UFC 103 coming up real soon. I'm personally on Maynard -260 and Dos Santos -115 right now, both at Betus and probably the best available lines on both guys. Maynard's value is kaput, but I think he suffocates Huerta and makes the claim to be given the next LW title shot against Penn after Sanchez. Dos Santos is going to make Cro Cop remember why he didn't want to come back to the UFC.sheerterror said:
Good question - I honestly have no idea. Performify would definitely be able to answer this one better. Fact of the matter is Nog looked very, very good. I don't care what anyone of his backers said, NO ONE expected him to beat Randy up the way he did. I don't think he looked overly quick or explosive, but certainly much more like the Minotauro of Pride than the Minotauro of the UFC. However, one thing I noticed is he still has the tendency to eat way too many punches during exchanges. If he faces a good striker in his next fight - it's something to keep an eye on. Carwin or Lesnar would drop him pretty quickly IMO - Randy's striking power just isn't on their level. I'd be interested in a Mir-Nog rematch, to see what a healthy Nog could do to an overrated Frank Mir. If I could get some sort of guarantee that Nog showed up with the same level of health in a Mir rematch as he did tonight, I'd look to recoup everything I lost on him the first time they fought. Unfortunately, I think if they set that fight up, it'd be assumed to be for the no. 1 contender spot, and I'm not sure anybody is in a hurry to see either of these guys get devoured by Lesnar (Carwin-Mir would be an interesting matchup, but I think Carwin KOs Nog pretty early in the fight). If Velasquez dispatches Rothwell, I think he and Nog is the most likely scenario for the top contender spot - and that would make for a very, very interesting fight. World class offensive wrestling vs. world class BJJ - it'd be boring, but interesting.I realize the division isn't deep, but there's a good deal of top end talent, only marred by the fact that Lesnar is seemingly invincible. Hopefully guys like Dos Santos and Duffee can develop properly and give us a real exciting division for a long time to come.
I'm going to have to look into Schaeffer-Bader more, but I couldn't see backing Bader at that price, especially given Red's experience. Hardy over Kim seems reasonable, as Kim has been relatively uninspiring. I'll probably look to back Hazlett, but it won't be for much solely because he's coming off major knee surgery.
Yeah, it's a giant, delicious glass of #### I've got right here. Anyone else thirsty?
i can say i am looking forward to Maia's next fight, and i think he will dominate. it is a shame it went so fast, because i would have liked to have seen how Maia would have been the rest of the fight. i have to think he'll bounce back very well, and i'd love to see him go to a strong camp and develop a fluid stand-up gameYeah, it's a giant, delicious glass of #### I've got right here. Anyone else thirsty?
Karo also works out with Greg Jackson's camp, so i am not sure where his head is. I do agree the coming back from the knee injury is a concern and i would think we would have enough time to see. Bader has been somewhat impressive from what he has done so far, but yeah, that bet was really based on the number that was out there. i can see it even out at some point. there were a few other one's. What do you think of Belfort over Franklin and McFedries vs. Drwal. Drwal is a guy i am not that familiar with, but i think he is pretty good. I think we are due to spank these books for some of these upcoming fights, they are starting to piss me off, and i know we can kill them.
