UFC wagering: no longer stuck with the old thread title. The window to change it is here! (6 Viewers)

[sheerterror]

for me I am on both of those guys as well (Dos Santos and Maynard). i'm not sure what else i may grab for the Fight Night, a few of the underdogs may be worth a shot. i really don't like CB Dalloway, but being +200 against Dan Miller is some good odds for him. As for 103, i have about 3/4 of a unit on Dos Santos at -115 and Kampmann at +145. Also have .5 unit bets right now on Drew McFedries (-125) and Belfort (+130). some other fights i just put .5 unit bets on for the future:Eric Shaeffer +260 over Ryan BaederDan Hardy -140 over KimDustin Hazelett -105 over Karo - these 3 are late October early November and my acct. doesn't have enough flexibility. i have others out there, but these are 3/5 i jumped on tonight (along with McFedries and Belfort). i love the future bets to think there is money put awayI'm going to have to look into Schaeffer-Bader more, but I couldn't see backing Bader at that price, especially given Red's experience. Hardy over Kim seems reasonable, as Kim has been relatively uninspiring. I'll probably look to back Hazlett, but it won't be for much solely because he's coming off major knee surgery.

Karo also works out with Greg Jackson's camp, so i am not sure where his head is. I do agree the coming back from the knee injury is a concern and i would think we would have enough time to see. Bader has been somewhat impressive from what he has done so far, but yeah, that bet was really based on the number that was out there. i can see it even out at some point. there were a few other one's. What do you think of Belfort over Franklin and McFedries vs. Drwal. Drwal is a guy i am not that familiar with, but i think he is pretty good. I think we are due to spank these books for some of these upcoming fights, they are starting to piss me off, and i know we can kill them.

I've got a lot of research to do on that one, but as of right now I see myself backing Belfort because of that positive number. Franklin's a solid but unspectacular fighter that is probably being favored here due to name recognition (if the books "fall for that") but Vitor is coming off a devastating KO win over Matt Lindland, and we all know what he's capable of if his head is in the right place. Seems like a good spot getting the + number. Don't know much about Drwal either, but we'll see if we can find a prop for the fight finishing quicker than 90 seconds.I hear what you are saying about beind due here. I've come soo damn close the last 3 cards to absolutely cleaning up, but I'm always that 1 fight away. However, like I've said in the past, I think you need to identify that 1 fight per card that you really feel strongly about, and bet the #### out of it. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't - but at least you can analyze the fight and know you got your money in a good place. Betting Marquardt as strong as I did tonight saved my ###, because even though I went 3-1 on straight plays, Leben straight and the 3 losing parlays would have cost me if I hadn't unloaded. If it's a card that you don't see any excessive value in, you make a few plays and hope to make a few dollars on the night. Seems simple enough, but it's allowed me to profit pretty steadily the last few cards. Of course, the last time it didn't work, I lost my shirt thanks to an overbet on Sherk (I know you got crushed on this one too.) Seems like a lot of people on other boards I follow had a losing card, as the 2/3 combination of Leben-Jardine-Couture seemed relatively popular, so I'm happy to come out in the black for sure.

 

[Sebowski]

Nog at +150Thiago at +125Now I just need to find a good place to set up an account and I will put my retirement plan in motion.

Just wish I would have stuck with my intitial feelings on the fight. I read so much on picking Randy I didn't bet as much as I wanted to. At least I got the parlay action going. Viva Brasil!

 

[modogg]

Nog at +150Thiago at +125Now I just need to find a good place to set up an account and I will put my retirement plan in motion.

Just wish I would have stuck with my intitial feelings on the fight. I read so much on picking Randy I didn't bet as much as I wanted to. At least I got the parlay action going. Viva Brasil!

congrats on these. what did you see with Nog and Silva that had you so convinced to pick these 2? I thought Jardine had the advantage in this fight, but was obviously was wrong (funny though, because i thought if Jardine could survive the first minute or so of action he would win, and that seemed to be the case). I figure the guy handled shots from Chuck and Rampage as of late, so i thought his getting caught like that was done. Oh well, didn't read it right. And with Nog, he looked better then i thought, but i thought the fight was a crap shoot, and didn't feel strongly in either direction. would love to hear what had you thinking so strongly with these 2.

 

[modogg]

Karo also works out with Greg Jackson's camp, so i am not sure where his head is. I do agree the coming back from the knee injury is a concern and i would think we would have enough time to see. Bader has been somewhat impressive from what he has done so far, but yeah, that bet was really based on the number that was out there. i can see it even out at some point. there were a few other one's. What do you think of Belfort over Franklin and McFedries vs. Drwal. Drwal is a guy i am not that familiar with, but i think he is pretty good. I think we are due to spank these books for some of these upcoming fights, they are starting to piss me off, and i know we can kill them.

I've got a lot of research to do on that one, but as of right now I see myself backing Belfort because of that positive number. Franklin's a solid but unspectacular fighter that is probably being favored here due to name recognition (if the books "fall for that") but Vitor is coming off a devastating KO win over Matt Lindland, and we all know what he's capable of if his head is in the right place. Seems like a good spot getting the + number. Don't know much about Drwal either, but we'll see if we can find a prop for the fight finishing quicker than 90 seconds.I hear what you are saying about beind due here. I've come soo damn close the last 3 cards to absolutely cleaning up, but I'm always that 1 fight away. However, like I've said in the past, I think you need to identify that 1 fight per card that you really feel strongly about, and bet the #### out of it. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't - but at least you can analyze the fight and know you got your money in a good place. Betting Marquardt as strong as I did tonight saved my ###, because even though I went 3-1 on straight plays, Leben straight and the 3 losing parlays would have cost me if I hadn't unloaded. If it's a card that you don't see any excessive value in, you make a few plays and hope to make a few dollars on the night. Seems simple enough, but it's allowed me to profit pretty steadily the last few cards. Of course, the last time it didn't work, I lost my shirt thanks to an overbet on Sherk (I know you got crushed on this one too.) Seems like a lot of people on other boards I follow had a losing card, as the 2/3 combination of Leben-Jardine-Couture seemed relatively popular, so I'm happy to come out in the black for sure.

i think with me i went back to my old ways yesterday with that card. As of Thursday, maybe Friday, my bets on this card were quite a bit on Nate, $50 on Silva at +185 and $50 on Rosholt, and a $40 bet on Aurelio. If i would have left it at that it would have been nice. One of the killers is like you mentioned, i got too cute and played addl. fights. My $30 bet against Gonzaga was unneccesary, and i loaded up more than i should have on the other guys. Oh well, lesson learned. Other guffaw i had was a bet late Friday night, betting on Tim Hague because i like the guy. I haven't done that one in a bit too, but these flyer bets on guys who may have a chance catch up to me. And i was thinking about something, basically if i have been over-rating the Jackson camp effect. Obvioulsy Greg can't jump in and fight the fight himself, but Jardine's loss last night and Rashad's gameplan against Machida has me thinking i may put too much emphasis on the influence of the fight camp. i still have to think that this is the best camp out there, and getting better (Jon Jones recently joined up with them, that guy will be dangerous going forward), but maybe it doesn't influence a fight like i think it may. I mean Jardine recently came off of very good fights against Chuck and Rampage, but then gets blasted by Thiago early in the 1st? i have to think Chuck and Rampage hit caomparably to Thiago

 

[sheerterror]

Karo also works out with Greg Jackson's camp, so i am not sure where his head is. I do agree the coming back from the knee injury is a concern and i would think we would have enough time to see. Bader has been somewhat impressive from what he has done so far, but yeah, that bet was really based on the number that was out there. i can see it even out at some point. there were a few other one's. What do you think of Belfort over Franklin and McFedries vs. Drwal. Drwal is a guy i am not that familiar with, but i think he is pretty good. I think we are due to spank these books for some of these upcoming fights, they are starting to piss me off, and i know we can kill them.

I've got a lot of research to do on that one, but as of right now I see myself backing Belfort because of that positive number. Franklin's a solid but unspectacular fighter that is probably being favored here due to name recognition (if the books "fall for that") but Vitor is coming off a devastating KO win over Matt Lindland, and we all know what he's capable of if his head is in the right place. Seems like a good spot getting the + number. Don't know much about Drwal either, but we'll see if we can find a prop for the fight finishing quicker than 90 seconds.I hear what you are saying about beind due here. I've come soo damn close the last 3 cards to absolutely cleaning up, but I'm always that 1 fight away. However, like I've said in the past, I think you need to identify that 1 fight per card that you really feel strongly about, and bet the #### out of it. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't - but at least you can analyze the fight and know you got your money in a good place. Betting Marquardt as strong as I did tonight saved my ###, because even though I went 3-1 on straight plays, Leben straight and the 3 losing parlays would have cost me if I hadn't unloaded. If it's a card that you don't see any excessive value in, you make a few plays and hope to make a few dollars on the night. Seems simple enough, but it's allowed me to profit pretty steadily the last few cards. Of course, the last time it didn't work, I lost my shirt thanks to an overbet on Sherk (I know you got crushed on this one too.) Seems like a lot of people on other boards I follow had a losing card, as the 2/3 combination of Leben-Jardine-Couture seemed relatively popular, so I'm happy to come out in the black for sure.

i think with me i went back to my old ways yesterday with that card. As of Thursday, maybe Friday, my bets on this card were quite a bit on Nate, $50 on Silva at +185 and $50 on Rosholt, and a $40 bet on Aurelio. If i would have left it at that it would have been nice. One of the killers is like you mentioned, i got too cute and played addl. fights. My $30 bet against Gonzaga was unneccesary, and i loaded up more than i should have on the other guys. Oh well, lesson learned. Other guffaw i had was a bet late Friday night, betting on Tim Hague because i like the guy. I haven't done that one in a bit too, but these flyer bets on guys who may have a chance catch up to me. And i was thinking about something, basically if i have been over-rating the Jackson camp effect. Obvioulsy Greg can't jump in and fight the fight himself, but Jardine's loss last night and Rashad's gameplan against Machida has me thinking i may put too much emphasis on the influence of the fight camp. i still have to think that this is the best camp out there, and getting better (Jon Jones recently joined up with them, that guy will be dangerous going forward), but maybe it doesn't influence a fight like i think it may. I mean Jardine recently came off of very good fights against Chuck and Rampage, but then gets blasted by Thiago early in the 1st? i have to think Chuck and Rampage hit caomparably to Thiago

It was definitely interesting to see Jardine fight as aggressively as he did, especially early in the fight, against Silva. It seemed that if Jardine could whether the initial storm, he would have had a much better shot - but instead fought aggressively and it played right into Silva's hands. I don't know if that's a gameplanning error on the camp's part, or an execution error on Jardine's part. I'd have to assume the latter, because you figure a mind like Greg Jackson, who has witnessed Jardine get assaulted by excessively aggressive strikers Wanderlei Silva and Houston Alexander would have tried to protect Jardine a little bit more and allow him to work his strengths.I agree, from a talent standpoint, it's probably the best camp out there right now - but I wouldn't say that it necessarily should be the end all, be all determining factor in whether or not one should back a certain fighter.Re: Hague. I bet Duffee because the 3 write ups I read regularly all spoke highly of him and all had .5u-1u plays on him, so I figured why not. I had no idea the dude was going to look like that, but man does he have some power. Sucks because we still don't know what his skill set truly is, but he fights with American Top Team so you know he's coming into every fight well trained. I'm wondering if they give him another can, or they set him up with a Heath Herring, Gabe Gonzaga type of Gate Keeper to see if he's the real deal this soon into his career.

 

[modogg]

It was definitely interesting to see Jardine fight as aggressively as he did, especially early in the fight, against Silva. It seemed that if Jardine could whether the initial storm, he would have had a much better shot - but instead fought aggressively and it played right into Silva's hands. I don't know if that's a gameplanning error on the camp's part, or an execution error on Jardine's part. I'd have to assume the latter, because you figure a mind like Greg Jackson, who has witnessed Jardine get assaulted by excessively aggressive strikers Wanderlei Silva and Houston Alexander would have tried to protect Jardine a little bit more and allow him to work his strengths.I agree, from a talent standpoint, it's probably the best camp out there right now - but I wouldn't say that it necessarily should be the end all, be all determining factor in whether or not one should back a certain fighter.Re: Hague. I bet Duffee because the 3 write ups I read regularly all spoke highly of him and all had .5u-1u plays on him, so I figured why not. I had no idea the dude was going to look like that, but man does he have some power. Sucks because we still don't know what his skill set truly is, but he fights with American Top Team so you know he's coming into every fight well trained. I'm wondering if they give him another can, or they set him up with a Heath Herring, Gabe Gonzaga type of Gate Keeper to see if he's the real deal this soon into his career.

Well, i like to use the Jackson camp factor for smaller shows and guys who are on undercard fights. I think camp like Jackson's, ATT, AKA, Blackhouse, etc. prepare a guy for fighting on a bigger stage then maybe smaller camps do. But it hasn't always helped too much, and an advantage i think i was using a year ago seems to not be as much of an advantage anymore. On a side note, i think Jackson had a good gameplan for Jardine vs. Rampage, and i think that Rashad brings a better skill set to that fight, so i am leaning toward taking Rashad. light bet, and will not take it until 2-3 months from now, but i could see the Jackson camp having an effect there. Let me stop here since I realize I am talking out my ### because i am assuming too much with all of these guys.And I'm betting on Duffee get a nice step up in competition, and Gonzaga is a good call. Your reasoning behind Duffee is a lot better then mine, I figured who can bet against a guy who is 6'5" 265 and teaches kindergarten. Karma has to be on this guy's side, right?On another side, i read the play-by-play with that Gonzaga fight, it sounds like he kicked Tursh directly in the nuts with a very solid kick. they gave him the time to get back, but from the thing i was reading it sounded like the kick just was something you can't receover from like that. Funny thinking of a HVY kicking you as hard as you can in your nuts, man that would suck.

 

[modogg]

i hate betting based on stupid ####, but i was thinking of taking Rashad anyway. If Jardine can put up a good fight against Rampage, i have to think Evans will do better:

You’ve probably heard by now that Quinton “Rampage” Jackson is the lead contender to play B.A. Baracus in the film remake of “The A-Team”. Personally, I think he will murder the role as Mr. T is irreplaceable, but I digress.

During yesterday’s pre-fight press conference, Dana White was asked for his opinion on the subject. In classic Dana mode, he through more F bombs in this response as he did in his video blog on Loretta Hunt, especially since the gig could force Jackson out of UFC 107’s planned main event with Rashad Evans in Memphis.

White commented:

“I hate it with a [expletive] passion,” White said when asked about UFC fighters who take movie roles. “‘You’re a fighter; you’re not a movie star.’ It’s so [expletive] funny because fighters want to be movie stars, and movie stars want to act like they’re fighters. ‘Get a [expletive] grip. You’re a fighter, and you’re a [expletive] movie star. Alright?’”

Instead of movie roles, White said Jackson should have more pressing concerns and that any Hollywood aspirations should wait until retirement.

“‘Guess what Rashad Evans is thinking about right now,’” White said he plans to tell Jackson. “‘He’s thinking about beating your [expletive] ###. He’s not sitting around thinking about how him and his mom used to watch the [expletive] ‘Love Boat’ together and (how) he wants to get the role of Isaac the bartender.

“‘Get a [expletive] grip, dude. You’re going to make a lot of money. You ain’t going to make a lot of money playing B.A. Baracus on ‘The A-Team.’ Jesus Christ. This [expletive] drives me [expletive] nuts.’ So yeah, I’m not a big fan of fighters doing movies. When your career is over, if you turn into a movie star, that’s awesome.”

White said he expects to settle the matter this weekend while Jackson is in town for UFC 102, which takes place Saturday at the Rose Garden Arena.

As of now, producers have not officially announced Jackon’s participation in the film expected to release in the Summer of 2010, which also stars Liam Neeson and Bradley Cooper.

i doubt this moves the line, but the premise is Rampage won't have much of a camp if he gets the part and can't change the date, which i imagine the UFC won't do. set a bad precedent if you move main events based on hollywood. and the card they are on (107) is in Rampage's home of Memphis

 

[sheerterror]

I was in a fight watching mood tonight, and I'm pretty set on making a large play on Junior Dos Santos -115 over Cro Cop.

This fight shouldn't be close to even IMO, as Cro Cop is a completely 1 dimensional kick boxer with average take down defense and virtually no grappling. He's old and washed up. He's looked horrible since he came to the UFC, and despite apparently having no interest in coming back, the UFC flew to his native country and plead with him to resign after his most recent fight against against below average fighter Mostapha Al-Turk, a fight in which he didn't look particularly comfortable but ended up winning via TKO which was preceded by an accidental, devastating eye-poke that the ref missed. Cro Cop then walked out on Dana White, now he's mysteriously back and facing bigger, younger up and coming HW Junior Dos Santos, a fighter who displays excellent striking skills with power, and is also a purple belt in BJJ training under Anderson Silva and the Nogueira brothers. This guy devastated a then top 5 Fabricio Werdum in his UFC debut, and followed it up with an easy assault of Dutch Kickboxer Stefan Struve a few months back. I believe he's the next big thing in the HW division, and this is a classic example of the UFC using a washed up big name fighter as a gatekeeper to build the following and resume of a top prospect. This line is where it is because 1) Cro Cop is still a big name fighter that the general public will recognize, respect, and put money on and 2) Dos Santos is flying largely under the radar here in the prospect department in the HW division. I expect Dos Santos to dispatch of Cro Cop easily, and this fight will thrust Dos Santos into relevance in the HW division. I truly believe Dos Santos can win this one on the feet, as he's displayed excellent striking ability and power, but if in danger, he'll use his grappling prowess over Cro Cop to drag this thing to the ground and work his submission game. Of course, whenever you are dealing with a guy with Cro Cop's power going against a guy whose chin we've yet to see tested, there's always the chance of that phantom home run shot, which will probably be the only factor keeping me from hitting this as hard as some others I've played real big in the past.

I'm not sure this line is going to move given what I outlined above, but I think it's worthy of a pretty big play given how off I think this line is. I highly doubt you'll see JDS at a + number (he's -125 at Betus, I believe was actually at -125 for a little at Sportsbook) but I'm going to hold off til closer to the fight just in case some sentimental money comes in on Cro Cop and pushes the line move in my favor.

 

[SKribbles]

Card for tonight:Nog +150 1u (parlayed with Gonzaga)Silva +125 1u (parlayed with Gonzaga)Leben -155 2u (parlayed with Gonzaga)Gonzaga -300 6uParlays:Leben/Gonzaga/MarquardtRusso/Gonzaga/LebenIf it isn't obvious, I think Gonzaga is a lock tonight. If he loses... I'm losing a lot of cash tonight!

I'm having sympathy pains right now for Tuchscherer. My goodness that was awful. I'm sure that blow had a huge effect on the outcome of the fight but Gonzaga completely dominated him after that point.Would have been a perfect if Leben had pulled through... I hate that guy even more now.

 

[modogg]

I was in a fight watching mood tonight, and I'm pretty set on making a large play on Junior Dos Santos -115 over Cro Cop.

This fight shouldn't be close to even IMO, as Cro Cop is a completely 1 dimensional kick boxer with average take down defense and virtually no grappling. He's old and washed up. He's looked horrible since he came to the UFC, and despite apparently having no interest in coming back, the UFC flew to his native country and plead with him to resign after his most recent fight against against below average fighter Mostapha Al-Turk, a fight in which he didn't look particularly comfortable but ended up winning via TKO which was preceded by an accidental, devastating eye-poke that the ref missed. Cro Cop then walked out on Dana White, now he's mysteriously back and facing bigger, younger up and coming HW Junior Dos Santos, a fighter who displays excellent striking skills with power, and is also a purple belt in BJJ training under Anderson Silva and the Nogueira brothers. This guy devastated a then top 5 Fabricio Werdum in his UFC debut, and followed it up with an easy assault of Dutch Kickboxer Stefan Struve a few months back. I believe he's the next big thing in the HW division, and this is a classic example of the UFC using a washed up big name fighter as a gatekeeper to build the following and resume of a top prospect. This line is where it is because 1) Cro Cop is still a big name fighter that the general public will recognize, respect, and put money on and 2) Dos Santos is flying largely under the radar here in the prospect department in the HW division. I expect Dos Santos to dispatch of Cro Cop easily, and this fight will thrust Dos Santos into relevance in the HW division. I truly believe Dos Santos can win this one on the feet, as he's displayed excellent striking ability and power, but if in danger, he'll use his grappling prowess over Cro Cop to drag this thing to the ground and work his submission game. Of course, whenever you are dealing with a guy with Cro Cop's power going against a guy whose chin we've yet to see tested, there's always the chance of that phantom home run shot, which will probably be the only factor keeping me from hitting this as hard as some others I've played real big in the past.

I'm not sure this line is going to move given what I outlined above, but I think it's worthy of a pretty big play given how off I think this line is. I highly doubt you'll see JDS at a + number (he's -125 at Betus, I believe was actually at -125 for a little at Sportsbook) but I'm going to hold off til closer to the fight just in case some sentimental money comes in on Cro Cop and pushes the line move in my favor.

yeah I'm getting a little nervous about this 103 card because i like quite a few plays. And with the undercard being aired on Spike, it could be dangerous. hoping for a good first week of football to help out with some of these, right now i got these:small plays:

McFedries -125 over Drwal - i need to look more into this one, but Drew looked real good his last fight against Professor X. i need to find out more on Drwal, but Drew has been under-rated for the most part and i don't see the line moving a whole lot

Dos Anjos +105 over Emerson - Again i need to look more at both, but i was antsy the other night so i put a little on him (I confused Dos Ajos with Paulo Thiago at first ). not worried enough to hedge the bet right now, but definate goof up

Belfort +135 over Franklin - Rich has cost me his last 2 fights, and i hope to avoid it being 3 in a row. Small play, but Belfort looked real good in his last fight, and i think he may have too much power for Franklin. like the 2 above, small play for now, but a side i like until i look more into it

medium plays:

Kampmann +145 over Swick - i'm surprised this line hasn't moved, and i put some money when it first opened because i thought it would. Kampmann looked ready for Condit, and Swick came off a somewhat lackluster performance against Ben Saunders (well he won TKO in the 2nd, but from what i remember it was lackluster), and i never thought too much of Swick at 170.

and i'm with you on Dos Santos. So i have a bit out there, and i need to do some research to make sure i am not pee'ing away money. but at first glance i liked these picks

EDIT: looked quickly, i am liking McFedries a little less, and i like Dos Anjos more. And I see how Drwal flew under the radar, he had a fight at UFC 75 against Thiago Silva, but then was out for over a year, and has fought on the undercard in the one PPV i didn't get (UFC 93) and one of the fight nights. As for Belfort, i am encouraged that he was ready to fight 2 weeks ago, and i hope his fight camp didn't screw him up too much to continue it until mid-September.

 

[AhrnCityPahnder]

Really surprised to see Kampmann the dog here. He should win this one convincingly.

 

[modogg]

Really surprised to see Kampmann the dog here. He should win this one convincingly.

i'm hoping. His last loss was to Nate Marquardt in '08, and he dropped weight after that. He trains at Xtreme Couture and i know they will have him ready for the fight against Swick. His only loss outside of that was in '04.

 

[SKribbles]

Wish I would have had this inside info!

Courtesy of Cagewriter: Yahoo! Sports' Kevin Iole appeared on ESPN 1100 over the weekend and had some choice remarks regarding the training habits of Chris Leben, who dropped a fight to Jake Rosholt in Portland, Ore., Saturday.



"A prominent fighter came over to me tonight and told me he'd made a bet on Rosholt," Iole said. "I was a little surprised by that. He said he knew that Leben hadn't trained at all."

(The "at all" part might be a bit exaggerated: Leben lives in Hawaii now, and you can't walk three blocks there without getting into some kind of a fight. That counts as sparring.)

Cagewriter also pointed out that the betting line on Leben-Rosholt shifted significantly leading up to the fight, leading to speculation that Leben's camp was known to be ill-suited for the dangers an NCAA-accredited wrestler presents.

If accurate, Leben's a pretty good performer. In a prefight interview with Tom Gerbasi on UFC.com, he sounded aghast at the notion that he had entered the bout unprepared.

"I'm scared of how bad I would look if I went out there and put on a terrible performance," Leben said.

"Training is just what I do, it's in my blood. I train at team practice every day, and I do my morning conditioning three days a week no matter what's going on in my life. It's just kinda the way I've always been."

Having lost his past two fights and four of his last six, Leben has an uncertain (at best) future in the UFC. That said, Dana White has been quoted as saying that a third event in the month of November could be the beginning of a new TV venture. If that's the case, warm bodies certainly will be needed.

 

[modogg]

Wish I would have had this inside info!

Courtesy of Cagewriter: Yahoo! Sports' Kevin Iole appeared on ESPN 1100 over the weekend and had some choice remarks regarding the training habits of Chris Leben, who dropped a fight to Jake Rosholt in Portland, Ore., Saturday.



"A prominent fighter came over to me tonight and told me he'd made a bet on Rosholt," Iole said. "I was a little surprised by that. He said he knew that Leben hadn't trained at all."

(The "at all" part might be a bit exaggerated: Leben lives in Hawaii now, and you can't walk three blocks there without getting into some kind of a fight. That counts as sparring.)

Cagewriter also pointed out that the betting line on Leben-Rosholt shifted significantly leading up to the fight, leading to speculation that Leben's camp was known to be ill-suited for the dangers an NCAA-accredited wrestler presents.

If accurate, Leben's a pretty good performer. In a prefight interview with Tom Gerbasi on UFC.com, he sounded aghast at the notion that he had entered the bout unprepared.

"I'm scared of how bad I would look if I went out there and put on a terrible performance," Leben said.

"Training is just what I do, it's in my blood. I train at team practice every day, and I do my morning conditioning three days a week no matter what's going on in my life. It's just kinda the way I've always been."

Having lost his past two fights and four of his last six, Leben has an uncertain (at best) future in the UFC. That said, Dana White has been quoted as saying that a third event in the month of November could be the beginning of a new TV venture. If that's the case, warm bodies certainly will be needed.

i read that on a few of the MMA sites last night too. Sucks, and i wish the media attn. of it would have been as good before the fight instead of now. it sounds like it was the case though from other stuff i read. all these deuches in Hawaii like Kendal Grove and Leban, guys think they are fine and don't need to train. i don't get it, they aren't BJ Penn who can get away with that for the most part.

 

[AhrnCityPahnder]

Really surprised to see Kampmann the dog here. He should win this one convincingly.

i'm hoping.

We're not gonna find out. Swick injured and out of the fight.

 

[sheerterror]

Another day, another valuable future fight out the window:

Gegard Mousasi has been forced to withdraw from a scheduled bout with Rameau Thierry Sokodjou in the semifinals of the Super Hulk Tournament at Dream 11, MMAWeekly.com has been told by multiple sources close to the situation. The Japanese promotion is currently trying to find a replacement opponent for the Oct. 6 event, which also features the promotion’s Featherweight Grand Prix Finals.

According to one source, Mousasi may have injured his shoulder during a grappling exhibition with Fedor Emelianenko at M-1: Breakthrough last month in Kansas City.

Less than two weeks prior to the exhibition, Mousasi dazzled in his American MMA debut at Strikeforce: Carano vs. Cyborg, stopping Renato “Babalu” Sobral in a minute to win the promotion’s light heavyweight title. The 24-year-old Dutch Armenian picked up his first major belt last year when he defeated an impressive field of contenders to take the Dream middleweight belt in September 2008. He vacated the belt shortly after to take fights in the light heavyweight class and beyond.

Mousasi’s manager, Apy Echteld, declined comment on the situation.

I was legitimately prepared to wager everything I could afford to lose on Mousasi over Sokodjou in the Superhulk semis. Can anybody remember a stretch where many fighters were forced to pull out of fights this bad? Maybe I'm just taking more notice now that I'm betting MMA so much more, but this is getting really frustrating.

 

[modogg]

Another day, another valuable future fight out the window:Gegard Mousasi has been forced to withdraw from a scheduled bout with Rameau Thierry Sokodjou in the semifinals of the Super Hulk Tournament at Dream 11, MMAWeekly.com has been told by multiple sources close to the situation. The Japanese promotion is currently trying to find a replacement opponent for the Oct. 6 event, which also features the promotion’s Featherweight Grand Prix Finals.According to one source, Mousasi may have injured his shoulder during a grappling exhibition with Fedor Emelianenko at M-1: Breakthrough last month in Kansas City.Less than two weeks prior to the exhibition, Mousasi dazzled in his American MMA debut at Strikeforce: Carano vs. Cyborg, stopping Renato “Babalu” Sobral in a minute to win the promotion’s light heavyweight title. The 24-year-old Dutch Armenian picked up his first major belt last year when he defeated an impressive field of contenders to take the Dream middleweight belt in September 2008. He vacated the belt shortly after to take fights in the light heavyweight class and beyond.Mousasi’s manager, Apy Echteld, declined comment on the situation.I was legitimately prepared to wager everything I could afford to lose on Mousasi over Sokodjou in the Superhulk semis. Can anybody remember a stretch where many fighters were forced to pull out of fights this bad? Maybe I'm just taking more notice now that I'm betting MMA so much more, but this is getting really frustrating.

I completely agree, and i think it is because we are betting it more that we are taking more notice. It is pretty crazy though, it is hard to keep track of. Like i said i think in an earlier post, i have my fingers crossed for Dos Santos and Cro Cop. I am upset we miss this, but i willl be really pissed if this cancels out Mous's +175 bet (or whatever it was) to win the tournament. I had a good 2.5 units on that, and that was money in the bank. I will be extremely pissed if that goes away. Speaking of which, you probably can do a pretty good job betting MMA without knowing a whole lot if you watch the line movements. A few have moved recently, some more than otherds. Maynard is now at -340, which is just insane. I mean Huerta is not exactly a pushover, i live my bet that i have in, but i wouldn't go more than that. Dos Santos is at -130 on sportsbook (farther on other books) and my man Vitor is only +115 now. I think both still have very good value in them, and they seem to be the only one's on that card with the most movement (actually, Jos is now -500, and Trigg is +300. i think Trigg has some value there. small bet, but Trigg isn't that awful). the only other bet i saw move considerably is Valasquez-Rothwell. I thought about taking Rothwell at +190, and he is now +230. i think he has good value with that, but i am in no rush to jump on it. I don't think it is that great of a bet, though i think Rothwell, probably like Big Country, will be under-rated because of their physiques.

 

[modogg]

Sheer, you have me fuming with that news on Mousasi. i just saw it a few places, and it basically is saying he is out of the tournament. That is a huge payday i am missing out on. It wasn't 2.5 units, it was actually 3.75 units. i must have hit a good day before the bets, but that one was pretty much a lock. I might think Soku takes it now, i don't know.

and i read this on the Huerta-Maynard fight: http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2009/9/8/102086...-gray-maynard-a. there isn't a ton of quality in it, but something it eludes to is that Huerta has a ton of motivation for this fight. the whole modelling and movie record thing aside, the exposure here is pretty huge for Huerta, and he could get a very big payday from Strikeforce. they always reference Huerta with the Mexican audience which is just $$$$$ for these promotions. I still like Maynard to take this fight, decidedly, but certainly not at -340, and it makes me conemplate a small wager on Huerta

 

[modogg]

So anybody have any picks for the upcoming Fight Night on Wed? I'm itching for some action since the football weekend wasn't as profitable as it could have been, so I'm looking to catch up a little on Wednesday. I just remembered i have some money already in which could help out a little, here are some rough odds:

Main Card Bouts:

- Nate Diaz (10-4) -260 vs. Melvin Guillard (22-7-2) +210

- Gray Maynard (7-0) -355 vs. Roger Huerta (20-2-1) +285

- Carlos Condit (22-5) -420 vs. Jake Ellenberger (21-4) +325

- Nate Quarry (11-3) -325 vs. Tim Credeur (12-2) +250

Preliminary Card Bouts:

- Steve Cantwell (7-2) -325 vs. Brian Stann (6-2) +250

- Mike Pyle (17-6-1) -140 vs. Chris Wilson (14-5) +115

- C.B. Dollaway (8-2) -285 vs. Jay Silva (5-0) +225

- Sam Stout (14-5-1) -200 vs. Phillipe Nover (5-2-1) +165

- Jeremy Stephens (15-5) -280 vs. Justin Buchholz (8-3) +210

- Brock Larson (26-2) -600 vs. Mike Pierce (9-1) +450

- Ryan Jensen (13-5) -180 vs. Steve Steinbeiss (4-2) +145

- i have some money on Maynard, but his value now is way out of sync. i am tempted to put a little on Huerta at +285, but probably won't. I know there are rumors circulating about Nate Diaz having a tough time cutting down to 155 for this fight, but i will wait for the weigh-ins before i think about putting money on Guillard. Melvin has cost me money before, the guy has a lot of potential, but he is not reliable. I think i may put a play in on Credeur at +250. I don't have a ton of faith in Tim, but that line is out of whack. i don't think Quarry is that dominating. I have heard good things about Steve Steinbeiss and i am thinking of giving Phillipe Nover a shot at +165. any thoughts?

 

[sheerterror]

So anybody have any picks for the upcoming Fight Night on Wed? I'm itching for some action since the football weekend wasn't as profitable as it could have been, so I'm looking to catch up a little on Wednesday. I just remembered i have some money already in which could help out a little, here are some rough odds:Main Card Bouts: - Nate Diaz (10-4) -260 vs. Melvin Guillard (22-7-2) +210 - Gray Maynard (7-0) -355 vs. Roger Huerta (20-2-1) +285 - Carlos Condit (22-5) -420 vs. Jake Ellenberger (21-4) +325 - Nate Quarry (11-3) -325 vs. Tim Credeur (12-2) +250 Preliminary Card Bouts: - Steve Cantwell (7-2) -325 vs. Brian Stann (6-2) +250 - Mike Pyle (17-6-1) -140 vs. Chris Wilson (14-5) +115 - C.B. Dollaway (8-2) -285 vs. Jay Silva (5-0) +225- Sam Stout (14-5-1) -200 vs. Phillipe Nover (5-2-1) +165 - Jeremy Stephens (15-5) -280 vs. Justin Buchholz (8-3) +210 - Brock Larson (26-2) -600 vs. Mike Pierce (9-1) +450 - Ryan Jensen (13-5) -180 vs. Steve Steinbeiss (4-2) +145 - i have some money on Maynard, but his value now is way out of sync. i am tempted to put a little on Huerta at +285, but probably won't. I know there are rumors circulating about Nate Diaz having a tough time cutting down to 155 for this fight, but i will wait for the weigh-ins before i think about putting money on Guillard. Melvin has cost me money before, the guy has a lot of potential, but he is not reliable. I think i may put a play in on Credeur at +250. I don't have a ton of faith in Tim, but that line is out of whack. i don't think Quarry is that dominating. I have heard good things about Steve Steinbeiss and i am thinking of giving Phillipe Nover a shot at +165. any thoughts?

I think Quarry has too much power for Credeur, but I don't really know enough about Tim to make a straight play either way. It's really disgusting that 9 of the 11 fights have favorites of -200 or greater, it's going to make betting this card extremely difficult - so I truly think parlays are the way to go unless you think you have an angle on one of the dogs. The only dog I've seen people discussing is Chris Wilson - but I don't know enough of either fighter to play it.Remember Mo, don't overthink things, and don't play a dog just for the sake of playing a dog and hoping to be able to pat yourself on the back if/when it cashes. If you like something, bet it. If you like it a lot, bet it hard. If there's nothing worth playing, sit it out and enjoy the fights, knowing full well that we have another full card on Saturday.

 

[modogg]

So anybody have any picks for the upcoming Fight Night on Wed? I'm itching for some action since the football weekend wasn't as profitable as it could have been, so I'm looking to catch up a little on Wednesday. I just remembered i have some money already in which could help out a little, here are some rough odds:Main Card Bouts: - Nate Diaz (10-4) -260 vs. Melvin Guillard (22-7-2) +210 - Gray Maynard (7-0) -355 vs. Roger Huerta (20-2-1) +285 - Carlos Condit (22-5) -420 vs. Jake Ellenberger (21-4) +325 - Nate Quarry (11-3) -325 vs. Tim Credeur (12-2) +250 Preliminary Card Bouts: - Steve Cantwell (7-2) -325 vs. Brian Stann (6-2) +250 - Mike Pyle (17-6-1) -140 vs. Chris Wilson (14-5) +115 - C.B. Dollaway (8-2) -285 vs. Jay Silva (5-0) +225- Sam Stout (14-5-1) -200 vs. Phillipe Nover (5-2-1) +165 - Jeremy Stephens (15-5) -280 vs. Justin Buchholz (8-3) +210 - Brock Larson (26-2) -600 vs. Mike Pierce (9-1) +450 - Ryan Jensen (13-5) -180 vs. Steve Steinbeiss (4-2) +145 - i have some money on Maynard, but his value now is way out of sync. i am tempted to put a little on Huerta at +285, but probably won't. I know there are rumors circulating about Nate Diaz having a tough time cutting down to 155 for this fight, but i will wait for the weigh-ins before i think about putting money on Guillard. Melvin has cost me money before, the guy has a lot of potential, but he is not reliable. I think i may put a play in on Credeur at +250. I don't have a ton of faith in Tim, but that line is out of whack. i don't think Quarry is that dominating. I have heard good things about Steve Steinbeiss and i am thinking of giving Phillipe Nover a shot at +165. any thoughts?

I think Quarry has too much power for Credeur, but I don't really know enough about Tim to make a straight play either way. It's really disgusting that 9 of the 11 fights have favorites of -200 or greater, it's going to make betting this card extremely difficult - so I truly think parlays are the way to go unless you think you have an angle on one of the dogs. The only dog I've seen people discussing is Chris Wilson - but I don't know enough of either fighter to play it.Remember Mo, don't overthink things, and don't play a dog just for the sake of playing a dog and hoping to be able to pat yourself on the back if/when it cashes. If you like something, bet it. If you like it a lot, bet it hard. If there's nothing worth playing, sit it out and enjoy the fights, knowing full well that we have another full card on Saturday.

I agree, and I think my answer is to keep my trigger finger away from the computer for a bit. Nothing really stands out much. I also like Chris Wilson (he was the guy who got mugged down in Brazil when he was training his Muay Thai for a few PPV's ago. i may play a .5 unit on him or something. maybe one or 2 others too, but nothing more than .5 units. I have about $140 on Maynard at -210, and i may put a little on Huerta at +285 just because from what i have seen the guy has been training hard. Certainly won't be as lopsided as everyone is making it out to be (i could be wrong, but Huerta has shown a chin and that he is a scrapper). We'll see if anythying pops up tomorrow, but you are definately right that i don't want to throw money away here. and you make a real good point about the frsutration of guys being -200 favorites. i know when the card was first put out there was some value because i know CB was over +200. the injury bug hit this card though and messed some of them match-ups yet, but the thing is i am not overly confident in too many of the guys over -200 either. i'm just babbling now, we'll find value in one of these fights tomorrow, has to be something somewhere.

 

[modogg]

some quick notes:

1. i'll bet on whoever fights Quarry or Credeur next. Credeur should have won that fight. Literally looked like Nate landed maybe 4 or 5 punches all fight, but caught 50+. He has always had a ton of power, and still does, but if whoever he is scheduled to fight doesn't have a glass chin i will take him

2. I will be taking Ellenberger in his next fight. I think he got this fight on 3-4 weeks notice, so he obviously gassed. I read some good things about him going into this fight, but didn't have the balls to take a chance on him. Definately a smart decision (i have to remind myself i don't need to bet on every fight), but i will be all over Ellenberger if he has a good match-up. Man that guy was impressive, hope Silva gives him a good match-up and hopefuly he fly's under the radar.

And i know i took some heat, but i am still pumped about my bet on Kimbo not to make the finals. $25 to win $5!!!!!!! I'll put that $5 bet on a 15-team parlay and we'll watch it hit and the payday will come in.

 

[sheerterror]

some quick notes:1. i'll bet on whoever fights Quarry or Credeur next. Credeur should have won that fight. Literally looked like Nate landed maybe 4 or 5 punches all fight, but caught 50+. He has always had a ton of power, and still does, but if whoever he is scheduled to fight doesn't have a glass chin i will take him2. I will be taking Ellenberger in his next fight. I think he got this fight on 3-4 weeks notice, so he obviously gassed. I read some good things about him going into this fight, but didn't have the balls to take a chance on him. Definately a smart decision (i have to remind myself i don't need to bet on every fight), but i will be all over Ellenberger if he has a good match-up. Man that guy was impressive, hope Silva gives him a good match-up and hopefuly he fly's under the radar.And i know i took some heat, but i am still pumped about my bet on Kimbo not to make the finals. $25 to win $5!!!!!!! I'll put that $5 bet on a 15-team parlay and we'll watch it hit and the payday will come in.

I was very impressed with Ellenberger. He's definitely a guy to keep an eye on in his next fight. Unfortunately, he'll never be that big of a dog again.

 

[modogg]

some quick notes:

1. i'll bet on whoever fights Quarry or Credeur next. Credeur should have won that fight. Literally looked like Nate landed maybe 4 or 5 punches all fight, but caught 50+. He has always had a ton of power, and still does, but if whoever he is scheduled to fight doesn't have a glass chin i will take him

2. I will be taking Ellenberger in his next fight. I think he got this fight on 3-4 weeks notice, so he obviously gassed. I read some good things about him going into this fight, but didn't have the balls to take a chance on him. Definately a smart decision (i have to remind myself i don't need to bet on every fight), but i will be all over Ellenberger if he has a good match-up. Man that guy was impressive, hope Silva gives him a good match-up and hopefuly he fly's under the radar.

And i know i took some heat, but i am still pumped about my bet on Kimbo not to make the finals. $25 to win $5!!!!!!! I'll put that $5 bet on a 15-team parlay and we'll watch it hit and the payday will come in.

I was very impressed with Ellenberger. He's definitely a guy to keep an eye on in his next fight. Unfortunately, he'll never be that big of a dog again.

Yeah, i don't want to wish the guy any bad luck, but i would like him to not fight for awhile and fall back into obscurity. Maybe he'll go the route like Dos Anjos (who i still can't believe i confused with Paulo Thiago) and have his performance somewhat forgotten. I did some due diligence on Dos Anjos after i made that guffaw, and he really gave both Tyson Griffin and Jeremy Stevens a run for their money. Emerson worries me a little because of how much the guy is hyped by people, and he has some KO power as seen by his fight with Manny, but my .5 or .75 unit on Dos Anjos is something i don't feel i have to hedge. And since I did not see any boxing wagering thread, or boxing thread at all, i figured i would take a shot and post it here. I started during the winter months trying to get back into boxing, i used to love it when i was in H.S., then lost touch with it. I heard good things about the card coming up on Saturday, so i looked into it and caught up on some of the guys. I think Mayweather wins this, but he is -500 and i don't feel like putting a lot out there. one fight did catch my eye, and I think i got a pretty good one here (i hope):

Vicente Eobedo +105

i put .75 unit on him, so i hope everything i watched and read supports it. The guy's at badlefthook have a good write-up: http://www.badlefthook.com/2009/9/17/10344...-undercard-pt-2

Also, one of the things that was getting me back into boxing was the talk of the Super Six Classic starting this winter i think. Basically, boxing has realized how they were screwing things up and have begun to turn some things around. This is a good example of it, basically they have a tournament across promoters and the idiotic sanctioning bodies to try and make one guy the champ at the super middleweight class. It's not all the way there purity wise, but it is a good move. Here is a little insight in it, if you are looking to get into boxing at all:

http://www.badlefthook.com/2009/7/21/95600...t-the-super-six

 

[Clayton Gray]

Everyone is loading up on Dos Santos, right?

 

[zander_s]

Everyone is loading up on Dos Santos, right?

 

[sheerterror]

Everyone is loading up on Dos Santos, right?

I ended up on him larger than I intended to be, but I'm very confident in this play. Don't know if you caught Performify's write up but he's also backing Junior for quite a bit - confident this is the most out of wack line he's seen in a long time.http://www.sherdog.com/thumbnail_crop.php?...;width_size=600

I was SHOCKED to see how big Dos Santos got. I know Cro Cop is considered small by UFC HW standards, and JDS generally has a 10lb size advantage on him (weighed in 10lbs heavier today also) but MAN does he dwarf CC in that picture.

 

[sheerterror]

The only other fighter I know in that camp is Sherk. If there's one thing I'm going to take out of MMAA, it's that they are good wrestlers and they are going to be well conditioned. Most agree, this is Gabe's fight to lose - but like I said earlier, I think you may be a little overexposed. If Tuch has the power he could have for a man his size, you're always going to be that one shot away from the fight ending real quickly. Gabe loss = your night sucks, and it sucks early on. Ride with me on Nate straight up.

Jesus Sheer, remind me next time you like a guy a lot to put my life savings on it. Great call on taking Nate heavy, helps out a bit. Just wishing i would have hit it even harder, but that is how it always goes. Great call manEdit: don't chase one loss with another pick you are unsure of. i think i unfortunately will end up around even for this card, maybe a little up because of 2 late add-ons that were heavier then original bets i made. oh well, looking forward to the 3 fight cards in September (i think Dana said there are 3) to catch up a little here and go on top.

Mo, here's your reminder. Not as strong as Nate - but close. Dos Santos.

 

[modogg]

The only other fighter I know in that camp is Sherk. If there's one thing I'm going to take out of MMAA, it's that they are good wrestlers and they are going to be well conditioned. Most agree, this is Gabe's fight to lose - but like I said earlier, I think you may be a little overexposed. If Tuch has the power he could have for a man his size, you're always going to be that one shot away from the fight ending real quickly. Gabe loss = your night sucks, and it sucks early on. Ride with me on Nate straight up.

Jesus Sheer, remind me next time you like a guy a lot to put my life savings on it. Great call on taking Nate heavy, helps out a bit. Just wishing i would have hit it even harder, but that is how it always goes. Great call manEdit: don't chase one loss with another pick you are unsure of. i think i unfortunately will end up around even for this card, maybe a little up because of 2 late add-ons that were heavier then original bets i made. oh well, looking forward to the 3 fight cards in September (i think Dana said there are 3) to catch up a little here and go on top.

Mo, here's your reminder. Not as strong as Nate - but close. Dos Santos.

nice. I am in pretty large on Dos Santos right now. Not horribly large, but with the odds we got here it could pay off nice. I was reading some stuff around this fight and there are some people on CroCop here, which had me tempted to hedge. As long as Cole, Dos Santos, and Vitor all don't lose, i should be able to pull off something. i have smaller plays on Brilz, Lentz, and McFedries. I don't know how i did it again and bet on more fights then i wanted to, but these 3 added up don't equal what i have on Vitor, and are about half of what i have on Dos Santos

 

[sheerterror]

The only other fighter I know in that camp is Sherk. If there's one thing I'm going to take out of MMAA, it's that they are good wrestlers and they are going to be well conditioned. Most agree, this is Gabe's fight to lose - but like I said earlier, I think you may be a little overexposed. If Tuch has the power he could have for a man his size, you're always going to be that one shot away from the fight ending real quickly. Gabe loss = your night sucks, and it sucks early on. Ride with me on Nate straight up.

Jesus Sheer, remind me next time you like a guy a lot to put my life savings on it. Great call on taking Nate heavy, helps out a bit. Just wishing i would have hit it even harder, but that is how it always goes. Great call manEdit: don't chase one loss with another pick you are unsure of. i think i unfortunately will end up around even for this card, maybe a little up because of 2 late add-ons that were heavier then original bets i made. oh well, looking forward to the 3 fight cards in September (i think Dana said there are 3) to catch up a little here and go on top.

Mo, here's your reminder. Not as strong as Nate - but close. Dos Santos.

nice. I am in pretty large on Dos Santos right now. Not horribly large, but with the odds we got here it could pay off nice. I was reading some stuff around this fight and there are some people on CroCop here, which had me tempted to hedge. As long as Cole, Dos Santos, and Vitor all don't lose, i should be able to pull off something. i have smaller plays on Brilz, Lentz, and McFedries. I don't know how i did it again and bet on more fights then i wanted to, but these 3 added up don't equal what i have on Vitor, and are about half of what i have on Dos Santos

I really would like to see anybody make a case for Cro Cop in this fight. Of the 3 write-ups I routinely read for each event, only 1 predicted a Cro Cop victory and he didn't even make a play on it. I truly feel that anybody backing him is doing so because they think he is going to miraculously return to his Pride form. That ship has long sailed. He's past his prime - older, slower, seemingly unmotivated (Feritta had to fly to Croatia and beg him to come back to the UFC) and banged up. Not to mention the fact that he's always been one dimensional, and is facing a bigger, stronger, younger faster fighter who, at present time has just as much striking ability and power (if not more) and also has a supposedly explosive ground game should he need to take the fight there.If anybody needs reassurance on this one, just watch Cro Cop get decisioned by Cheick freakin' Kongo. The man with no grappling ability whatsoever manages to control Cro Cop the entire fight, even scoring a takedown or two. I think you'd be hard pressed to find anybody who would argue that Dos Santos isn't a better striker than Kongo - and it's safe to assume that a purple belt from the Nogueria's in BJJ should qualify him as to having much better grappling ability than Kongo. Now, this fight was 2 years ago - so one might argue that Cro Cop has done some improving since then. But what are the odds that you see an older fighter (a kickboxer no less) whose career has been on a steady downslide, who has never truly looked comfortable in the octagon, and seemed pretty unmotivated to return to the UFC magically return to form? -135 that this doesn't happen sounds pretty damn good to me.

ETA: I will say this, and I mentioned it in the General Wagering Thread, you can never truly count out a guy with Cro Cop's power. Although he hasn't displayed it in quite some time, you just never know what he may be able to land especially since we haven't seen Dos Santos' chin tested. This is the one factor keeping me from making this as big a play as Marquardt - but skill vs. skill as well as the extrinsic factors like training camps and motivation/future in the sport all adds up to a substantial play on Junior in my opinion.

 

[modogg]

Sheer, you got to stop. You got some convincing stuff there (again) and now instead you have me thinking about putting a little more on Dos Santos . Have....to...walk...away.....from....sportsbook.

I think a lot of what i saw was more of no plays and stuff like that. I didn't read anything about anybody who thinks Cro Cop definately wins this. A guy i like to check out is the guy from bloodyelbow, Mike Fagan. he has some good stuff:

This fight has more question marks than the Riddler's costume. In one corner, you have an up-and-coming Brazilian prospect who has less than three minutes of ring time in the Octagon. In the other, you have an aging MMA legend coming off a two-and-a-half years of nagging injuries and mediocre performances.

Combined with a few youtube videos of his fights in Brazil, I've found less than ten minutes of fight tape on dos Santos. Here's what we can gather about him: he's big, strong, and hits like a Mack truck. While he has a submission loss on his record, he's the protege of Minotauro Nogueira, so we can at least assume he's competent on the floor, though that shouldn't be a concern with Mirko Filipovic.

Since winning Pride's Open Weight Grand Prix in 2006, Mirko's career has been charactized by dominating journeymen (Al-Turk, Choi, Mizuno) while struggling with legitimate competition (Overeem, Kongo, Gonzaga). How much of his poor performances can be blamed on injuries and nut shots is up for debate, but Cro Cop did have surgery on an injured knee months before the Al-Turk fight.

Without some more information, I can't recommend a play on either side. If I felt more confidence that the dos Santos we've seen is the dos Santos we'll get, he would be a fairly heavy favorite. That said, dos Santos size is a huge hurdle for the Croatian. Injuries or not, it's worrisome for the Cro Cop side that the two strikers he's struggled with in the recent past share the same physical qualities with dos Santos. While I would be thrilled to see it, I feel like we'll need to see a Cro Cop we haven't seen in years to win this fight.

I think i will stick out with what i have. I'm sure it will be one of those that i kick myself for not having more on it when Dos Santos KO's Cro Cop in the 1st, then i will be pissed i didn't hedge if Cro Cop happens to win this one. I know one concern i have read is what is Dos Santos like after the 1st round. Well, i think that is a goofy question, i assume he is pretty much the same. It isn't like he comes out completely guns blazing and gasses after 1 minute or 2. The only thing I am not sure about is Dos Santos' chin. But now that i think about it, I remember reading something when Cro Cop was fighting Al Turk that his high kick is not what it used to be because of his knee issues and that he will never get it back again.

I can't find the other stuff i was looking at.

 

[sheerterror]

Sheer, you got to stop. You got some convincing stuff there (again) and now instead you have me thinking about putting a little more on Dos Santos . Have....to...walk...away.....from....sportsbook.

I think a lot of what i saw was more of no plays and stuff like that. I didn't read anything about anybody who thinks Cro Cop definately wins this. A guy i like to check out is the guy from bloodyelbow, Mike Fagan. he has some good stuff:

This fight has more question marks than the Riddler's costume. In one corner, you have an up-and-coming Brazilian prospect who has less than three minutes of ring time in the Octagon. In the other, you have an aging MMA legend coming off a two-and-a-half years of nagging injuries and mediocre performances.

Combined with a few youtube videos of his fights in Brazil, I've found less than ten minutes of fight tape on dos Santos. Here's what we can gather about him: he's big, strong, and hits like a Mack truck. While he has a submission loss on his record, he's the protege of Minotauro Nogueira, so we can at least assume he's competent on the floor, though that shouldn't be a concern with Mirko Filipovic.

Since winning Pride's Open Weight Grand Prix in 2006, Mirko's career has been charactized by dominating journeymen (Al-Turk, Choi, Mizuno) while struggling with legitimate competition (Overeem, Kongo, Gonzaga). How much of his poor performances can be blamed on injuries and nut shots is up for debate, but Cro Cop did have surgery on an injured knee months before the Al-Turk fight.

Without some more information, I can't recommend a play on either side. If I felt more confidence that the dos Santos we've seen is the dos Santos we'll get, he would be a fairly heavy favorite. That said, dos Santos size is a huge hurdle for the Croatian. Injuries or not, it's worrisome for the Cro Cop side that the two strikers he's struggled with in the recent past share the same physical qualities with dos Santos. While I would be thrilled to see it, I feel like we'll need to see a Cro Cop we haven't seen in years to win this fight.

I think i will stick out with what i have. I'm sure it will be one of those that i kick myself for not having more on it when Dos Santos KO's Cro Cop in the 1st, then i will be pissed i didn't hedge if Cro Cop happens to win this one. I know one concern i have read is what is Dos Santos like after the 1st round. Well, i think that is a goofy question, i assume he is pretty much the same. It isn't like he comes out completely guns blazing and gasses after 1 minute or 2. The only thing I am not sure about is Dos Santos' chin. But now that i think about it, I remember reading something when Cro Cop was fighting Al Turk that his high kick is not what it used to be because of his knee issues and that he will never get it back again.

I can't find the other stuff i was looking at.

Fagan is one of the write-ups I routinely read when finalizing my plays, but I was already on Junior big before I saw his write up. He brings up the valid question of us not having a particularly big sample size on Dos Santos for this to be worthy of a play - which is certainly valid, but I think it's also ignoring plenty of the realities of this fight that have already been discussed. Another guy write up I check out is here: http://blog.mmaratings.net/2009/09/pick-an...c-103-rich.html. He actually "predicts" Cro Cop by 3rd round TKO, but disappointingly offers nothing of true substance in his write-up, which is pretty rare of him. He basically says that IF Cro Cop can return to form, he MIGHT be able to defend Dos Santos enough to drag the fight into the 2nd and 3rd round, and wear down Dos Santos en route to a 3rd round victory. The problems with this write up are that he 1) managed to convince himself that Cro Cop looked like the old Cro Cop against a terrible Al-Turk (which I don't buy for a second) 2) is banking on Cro Cop looking like his old self - and for the life of me, I don't see how anyone could make this prediction given that Mirko hasn't looked like Mirko in I don't even know how long, and especially not against competition as tough as Dos Santos. And this is especially unlikely given Cro Cop's injuries, age and mileage and finally, 3) he's ASSUMING that Dos Santos will gas out simply because we've never seen him last beyond the 1st round. I HATE #3. Sure, it's easy to assume that big, muscular guys are going to gas out because of lack of experience fighting 100% in that long of duration and because of excessive muscle mass, but let's not forget that these guys are elite professional athletes. People are and will continue to say the same thing about Carwin, simply because he's so big and has never been out of the first round - but I'll believe these guys having poor stamina when I see it - until then, I'll assume they are properly trained and this will not be an issue. Dos Santos trains at Black House, I'm not worried in the slightest bit about his physical preparation for this fight.

 

[SKribbles]

Plays for tonight:

Franklin: -125 3U

dos Santos: -145 2U

Koscheck/McFedries: 1U

Koscheck/Escudero: 1U

Koscheck/Miller/Matyshenko: 1U

Koscheck/Franklin/dos Santos: 1U

As you can tell, I think Koscheck is a lock. I think I'm going to stick with this strategy until it backfires. If Koscheck remembers that he is a wrestler and not Anderson Silva, 1st round read naked victory.

 

[Clayton Gray]

GL with 3U on Franklin.

 

[SKribbles]

GL with 3U on Franklin.

I'm pretty confident in him. The only moderately good fighter Belfort has beat in the last 5 years is Matt Lindland, who is a decent fighter, but no where near the level of the guys Franklin has been fighting. If Belfort doesn't score the quick KO, which he very well could, I think Franklin takes this by unanimous decision. The only guys to have beaten Franklin are the best of the best... two champs and Henderson, and I thought he should have won the Henderson fight.

 

[sheerterror]

Probably pointless to post since all these lines have moved a bit but here's my card for the night:

Dos Santos -115 through -140 a lot to win a lot

Belfort +150 risk .5u

Belfort/Franklin to end in the 1st round +325 .25u

Cole Miller +135 risk .5u

Good luck guys

 

[modogg]

Probably pointless to post since all these lines have moved a bit but here's my card for the nightos Santos -115 through -140 a lot to win a lotBelfort +150 risk .5uBelfort/Franklin to end in the 1st round +325 .25uCole Miller +135 risk .5uGood luck guys

Yup, on all the same sides so it could be a real good one. I am a little heavier on Vitor though. I also have small plays on:Brilz -140 over Eliot .25 uLentz +260 over Oliveria .55uMcFedries -125 .25 u

 

[modogg]

Probably pointless to post since all these lines have moved a bit but here's my card for the nightos Santos -115 through -140 a lot to win a lotBelfort +150 risk .5uBelfort/Franklin to end in the 1st round +325 .25uCole Miller +135 risk .5uGood luck guys

Yup, on all the same sides so it could be a real good one. I am a little heavier on Vitor though. I also have small plays on:Brilz -140 over Eliot .25 uLentz +260 over Oliveria .55uMcFedries -125 .25 u

Ugh, I know i have said this before, but i have to avoid the rinky dink plays i hop on late. Cole wasn't a bad pick, He just got caught very well. McFedries though, bad bet.

 

[Darker Knight]

anyone got a link to see 103 online?

 

[Wu-banger]

anyone got a link to see 103 online?

http://tomattotv.com/ch1.htm

 

[snorlax]

Dos Santos looked pretty good there. After a couple minutes, Cro Cop didn't seem to want to engage him at all. I really hope that last shot wasn't an eye poke just so that there's no controversy about who won, but Dos Santos pretty much dominated the whole fight regardless.

 

[modogg]

Dos Santos looked pretty good there. After a couple minutes, Cro Cop didn't seem to want to engage him at all. I really hope that last shot wasn't an eye poke just so that there's no controversy about who won, but Dos Santos pretty much dominated the whole fight regardless.

i agree, though hopefuly it keeps Dos Santos value down for his next fight to make some money off of him again. Now i just need Vitor to win this one to make it a profitable night in MMA. i think it still will be even if Vitor doesn't seal the deal, i haven't seen the whole undercard yet

 

[modogg]

here are some future MMA bets i think i will take because there value may change as the weeks go on:UFC 102: Gabe Gonzaga -350 ov Chris Tuchscherer: UFC 103: Junior Dos Santos -115 vs. Cro Cop. UFC 104: Tibau +300 over Sean Sherk (-500)

I like Dos Santos a lot at -115. Not sure I trust Gabe at -350, albeit I know nothing about Tuchsherer. I've just given up on laying big juice on non-elite fighters. The last 2 events, overvalued mediocrity burned me out of about 2k between Stephan Bonnar and Thales Leites. I'm not saying Gonzaga won't knock the #### out of this guy, but I just think there is a slightly higher likelihood in non-elite guys losing as large favorites.3 I've got my eye on:Nate Marquardt -140 over Demain Maia: Gray Maynard -240 over Roger Huerta: Shane Carwin -140 over Cain Velasquez:

Alright Sheer, let's do this again. I made some money off this card, and lost a little in CFB today, but would like to put some money in some future MMA bets because the early lines are always helpful to hit, and i love having money in the bank to grab later. Oh, and great call on the 1st round finish, i didn't have the cajones to tail you there, but i should have. Funny how i didn't have the cajones for it, but i bet all of those undercard bets with barely flinching. If Lentz can finish this fight up, i should at least make some money off of those extra bets i had out there. Anyway, here are some possibilities:UFC 104 Okami -260 over Chael Sonnen: lot of chalk here, and the match-up isn't as great as the last one Okami was set for was, but i still think Okami is under-rated. Sonnen looked alright his last outing, and i have a little concern about ring rust with Okami104: Stevenson -220 over Spencer Fisher: Stupid bookmakers are setting these lines much higher then i would like, and it is getting to the point where betting some of these underdogs is worth a shot. However, i don't think is one of those spots. Stevenson under Greg Jackson looks very much improved, and should have a game plan that he can beat Spencer in a decisionUFC 105: Dan Hardy -140 over Hyun-Kim: Hardy has shown in his last 2 fights he is game (over Markham and Davis), and winning over Gono in his debut he has the experience. Weird set-up against Kim here after those 2 wins, and i think this is one of the few i may hit up sooner because i think the line is offUFC 106: Clay Guida +140 over Kenny Florian: I like Kenny quite a bit, and i even put some money on him over BJ , but with Clay training with Greg Jackson for at least a month now, i think we may see a new Guida. Guida is obviously a warrior, and I think there is a little value here- Not very exciting, but since this event is over maybe they will come up with some more. The only one i hit pretty good was Lesnar -205 over Carwin, but unfortunately i didn't have much money then, and i didn't put as much as i wanted to on him. Hardy is the only one here that seems to stand out to take, and that isn't even that exciting. Hopefuly somebody else here has something they like as a pending bet.

 

[flapgreen]

When are people going to start seeing that Franklin is a bum? Always has been.

 

[snorlax]

I'm as big a Franklin fan as anyone, but if he needs to lose, Belfort seems like a good, humble man to lose to.

 

[modogg]

I'm as big a Franklin fan as anyone, but if he needs to lose, Belfort seems like a good, humble man to lose to.

So i wonder how they will schedule the MW division now. If I were to guess, they may have Belfort fight Silva in the new year, and have Hendo take on Marquardt in November/December. I think the winner of Hendo-Marquardt will then fight the winner of Silva/Belfort. Regarding Silva/Belfort, I will have a hard time betting against Anderson Silva at any point, but Belfort may be able to challenge Silva a little. My guess is the line would open up at Silva -175, Belfort +135. I would think betting Silva there would be good, but I am not sure how the fight will go down. I have to catch up with Belfort's latest fights, but I don't think he has a bad chin. One of Silva's biggest advantages in the stand-up is his speed, and Belfort's fists may be able to keep pace with Silva's.

 

[Clayton Gray]

Great card tonight. Very fun to watch.

Poor Rich Franklin - no where to go. With nothing to fight for, he probably should retire before he's as punch drunk at Liddell.

Rick Story was exciting to watch. Dude took some big shots and was only wobbled once.

CroCop was far better than I expected, but he has no chance to make noise as a heavyweight. I'd like to see him make a run at LHW.

Thank God Kampmann got exposed before GSP ran through him. Paul Daley has some heavy hands.

Thanks for coming, Twinkle Toes.

Hermes Franca looked like a mess. Good to see someone 4 lbs overweight get taken apart.

Emerson needs some Noxema on that thigh. Ugh.

 

[sheerterror]

Great card tonight. Very fun to watch.Poor Rich Franklin - no where to go. With nothing to fight for, he probably should retire before he's as punch drunk at Liddell.Rick Story was exciting to watch. Dude took some big shots and was only wobbled once.CroCop was far better than I expected, but he has no chance to make noise as a heavyweight. I'd like to see him make a run at LHW.Thank God Kampmann got exposed before GSP ran through him. Paul Daley has some heavy hands.Thanks for coming, Twinkle Toes.Hermes Franca looked like a mess. Good to see someone 4 lbs overweight get taken apart.Emerson needs some Noxema on that thigh. Ugh.

I was actually pretty disappointed with Cro Cop. Obviously not from a bettor's standpoint - but while he was more competitive than I expected him to be in this one (truly expected a dominating 1st round victory for JDS) he looked completely stiff, tentative and borderline scared. He never went on the offensive at any point in the fight, basically just tried to counter with little power and then back away quickly as soon as Dos Santos came at him aggressively. He did a little bit of damage to Dos Santos in the first round through these types of exchanges, but somewhere in the second round, he just looked like he was defeated mentally.I'm a Rick Story fan after tonight.I'm disappointed in Kampmann, I like him a lot but damn, Daley's got some power. I've heard his ground game is suspect, but if he gets put up against someone in his next fight who also has poor ground work, he's definitely a buy.

 

[ClubbingSeals]

Poor Rich Franklin - no where to go. With nothing to fight for, he probably should retire before he's as punch drunk at Liddell.

Yeah, that was an easy call last night bet my wad on Belfort, on thing I regret is not putting it all on the first round KO prop.

 

[SKribbles]

Does anyone have Dream 11 lines at their books? Nothing on Bet365 or Sportsbook.