UFC wagering: no longer stuck with the old thread title. The window to change it is here! (1 Viewer)

[modogg]

Alright Zander, you started this thread with the Ultimate Fighter finale talk, i hope you guys got some for this one. I have found the Ultimate FIghter finale's to be a good opportunity to make some money. Unfortunately i have not always done that, but they set the lines not based on much for these. I did real well betting against that goofball last season (I can't remember the guy's name off the top of my head, but he was the only American to make the finals), and i think this season there will be opportunity as well. I just finished watching it, and don't want to ruin it for anybody, so i will wait to hear some opinions, but i expect Roy Nelson to be a favorite whereever he ends up, and i think Marcus Jones will have some value.

Also not sure what the line will be for Kimbo-Alexander will be either. I believe Kimbo has been training with ATT so we will see what he brings. Alexander has not shown a ton lately, but i am pretty sure i will be on him if the line is inviting enough.

And I also have some action on the K-1 Grand Prix coming up on Saturday. I got some on Hari at +300, and a little on Overeem at +280 and Bonjansky at +600 to win the whole thing. Any thoughts on the K-1 Grand Prix?

 

[modogg]

OK, the line-up for the finale is out: http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2009/12/2/11833...ghter-10-finale (don't want to ruin for those who haven't seen it yet). Any thoughts?

 

[Voice Of Reason]

Based on what I saw on the show: Madsen > Wren, Mitrone > Jones, Schoonover > McSweeney, Roy >>>> Schaub.

The reason the Finale is so easy to make money on is that the lines are based in the performances of guys on the show. The show was taped long time ago and a lot of these guys joined major MMA camps while others didn't. The guys who join a Jackson MMA, Team Quest, or ATT will improve greatly compared to the guys who go back to their local gyms. I haven't been interested in any of these guys enough to follow what they did after the show, so my rankings are just based on the TUF fights.

I like Madsen over Wren because Madsen's wrestling will allow him to control Wren. I was unimpressed with Wren's striking and I'd imagine Madsen's cardio would have improved so he shouldn't gas out, drop his hands and stick his chin out, as he did in his vs Schaub.

Mitrione vs Marcus is tough because both guys are woefully inept at one phase of the game. Because the fight starts standing and Mitrione has had all this time to train defensive wrestling, I'd give him the edge. The combination of his heavy hands and Marcus' chin leads me to think that Mitrione doesn't even need to land clean strikes to finish the fight.

Neither Schoover nor McSweeney looked impressive in either of their fights. I'm assuming McSweeney will be a big favorite because of how he was portrayed as some great stand up guy (I cannot believe he said on camera that he he thinks his striking is better than Arlovski) despite the fact that he was probably losing the standup battle in all 3 of his fights. Schoover landed a terribly sloppy triangle on the worst guy in the cast and got completely dominated by Marcus' size and ground game. They are both about the same size, so I'm mostly picking Schoover because I don't know what to expect of him, I'm unimpressed with McSweeney, and I expect McSweeney to be a sizable favorite.

Roy completely outclassed everyone he's fought so far and I expect that to continue. Schaub's wrestling is his weakest attribute, as he was taken down in all 3 of his TUF fights. He is simply not going to be able to get up if Roy gets on top. Roy has been on big shows, he's got a very good chin, and he would run a clinic on Schaub on the floor. Marcus is not nearly the grappler that Roy is and Marcus passed Schaub's guard with ease.

 

[modogg]

Based on what I saw on the show: Madsen > Wren, Mitrone > Jones, Schoonover > McSweeney, Roy >>>> Schaub.The reason the Finale is so easy to make money on is that the lines are based in the performances of guys on the show. The show was taped long time ago and a lot of these guys joined major MMA camps while others didn't. The guys who join a Jackson MMA, Team Quest, or ATT will improve greatly compared to the guys who go back to their local gyms. I haven't been interested in any of these guys enough to follow what they did after the show, so my rankings are just based on the TUF fights.I like Madsen over Wren because Madsen's wrestling will allow him to control Wren. I was unimpressed with Wren's striking and I'd imagine Madsen's cardio would have improved so he shouldn't gas out, drop his hands and stick his chin out, as he did in his vs Schaub.Mitrione vs Marcus is tough because both guys are woefully inept at one phase of the game. Because the fight starts standing and Mitrione has had all this time to train defensive wrestling, I'd give him the edge. The combination of his heavy hands and Marcus' chin leads me to think that Mitrione doesn't even need to land clean strikes to finish the fight.Neither Schoover nor McSweeney looked impressive in either of their fights. I'm assuming McSweeney will be a big favorite because of how he was portrayed as some great stand up guy (I cannot believe he said on camera that he he thinks his striking is better than Arlovski) despite the fact that he was probably losing the standup battle in all 3 of his fights. Schoover landed a terribly sloppy triangle on the worst guy in the cast and got completely dominated by Marcus' size and ground game. They are both about the same size, so I'm mostly picking Schoover because I don't know what to expect of him, I'm unimpressed with McSweeney, and I expect McSweeney to be a sizable favorite.Roy completely outclassed everyone he's fought so far and I expect that to continue. Schaub's wrestling is his weakest attribute, as he was taken down in all 3 of his TUF fights. He is simply not going to be able to get up if Roy gets on top. Roy has been on big shows, he's got a very good chin, and he would run a clinic on Schaub on the floor. Marcus is not nearly the grappler that Roy is and Marcus passed Schaub's guard with ease.

good stuff. I think they came out with the lines a few hours ago. You convinced me to throw a little on Madsen, and i will have to think about the rest:422 Marcus Jones -295 vs. Matt Mitrione +235 OFF OFF 425 John Howard -200 vs. Dennis Hallman +160 OFF OFF 428 Mark Bocek -500 OFF OFF vs. Joe Brammer +300 OFF OFF 31 James McSweeney -115 vs. Darrill Schoonover -115 OFF OFF 34 Jon Madsen +300 vs. Justin Wren -500 OFF OFF Houston Alexander -260 vs. Kimbo Slice +200 OFF OFF 419 Brian Stann -145 vs. Rodney Wallace +115 OFF OFF Matt Hamill +200 vs. Jon Jones -260 OFF OFF 16 Frank Edgar -650 vs. Matt Veach +450 OFF OFF 402 Roy Nelson -295 vs. Brendan Schaub +235

 

[Voice Of Reason]

Roy is an absolute steal at -205.

http://www.bestfightodds.com/

 

[Clayton Gray]

Roy is an absolute steal at -205.

Worst pound-for-pound fighter in the UFC.

 

[AhrnCityPahnder]

Roy is an absolute steal at -205.

Worst pound-for-pound fighter in the UFC.

Antoni Hardonk down?

 

[Voice Of Reason]

Roy is an absolute steal at -205.

Worst pound-for-pound fighter in the UFC.

Teila Tuli

 

[zander_s]

Based on what I saw on the show: Madsen > Wren, Mitrone > Jones, Schoonover > McSweeney, Roy >>>> Schaub.

The reason the Finale is so easy to make money on is that the lines are based in the performances of guys on the show. The show was taped long time ago and a lot of these guys joined major MMA camps while others didn't. The guys who join a Jackson MMA, Team Quest, or ATT will improve greatly compared to the guys who go back to their local gyms. I haven't been interested in any of these guys enough to follow what they did after the show, so my rankings are just based on the TUF fights.

I like Madsen over Wren because Madsen's wrestling will allow him to control Wren. I was unimpressed with Wren's striking and I'd imagine Madsen's cardio would have improved so he shouldn't gas out, drop his hands and stick his chin out, as he did in his vs Schaub.

Mitrione vs Marcus is tough because both guys are woefully inept at one phase of the game. Because the fight starts standing and Mitrione has had all this time to train defensive wrestling, I'd give him the edge. The combination of his heavy hands and Marcus' chin leads me to think that Mitrione doesn't even need to land clean strikes to finish the fight.

Neither Schoover nor McSweeney looked impressive in either of their fights. I'm assuming McSweeney will be a big favorite because of how he was portrayed as some great stand up guy (I cannot believe he said on camera that he he thinks his striking is better than Arlovski) despite the fact that he was probably losing the standup battle in all 3 of his fights. Schoover landed a terribly sloppy triangle on the worst guy in the cast and got completely dominated by Marcus' size and ground game. They are both about the same size, so I'm mostly picking Schoover because I don't know what to expect of him, I'm unimpressed with McSweeney, and I expect McSweeney to be a sizable favorite.

Roy completely outclassed everyone he's fought so far and I expect that to continue. Schaub's wrestling is his weakest attribute, as he was taken down in all 3 of his TUF fights. He is simply not going to be able to get up if Roy gets on top. Roy has been on big shows, he's got a very good chin, and he would run a clinic on Schaub on the floor. Marcus is not nearly the grappler that Roy is and Marcus passed Schaub's guard with ease.

good stuff. I think they came out with the lines a few hours ago. You convinced me to throw a little on Madsen, and i will have to think about the rest:422 Marcus Jones -295 vs. Matt Mitrione +235 OFF OFF

425 John Howard -200 vs. Dennis Hallman +160 OFF OFF

428 Mark Bocek -500 OFF OFF vs. Joe Brammer +300 OFF OFF

31 James McSweeney -115 vs. Darrill Schoonover -115 OFF OFF

34 Jon Madsen +300 vs. Justin Wren -500 OFF OFF

Houston Alexander -260 vs. Kimbo Slice +200 OFF OFF

419 Brian Stann -145 vs. Rodney Wallace +115 OFF OFF

Matt Hamill +200 vs. Jon Jones -260 OFF OFF

16 Frank Edgar -650 vs. Matt Veach +450 OFF OFF

402 Roy Nelson -295 vs. Brendan Schaub +235

Slugfest or snoozathon?

 

[modogg]

Roy is an absolute steal at -205.

Worst pound-for-pound fighter in the UFC.

Teila Tuli

There are a lot from the earlier years of the UFC. I would also think Alessio Sakara would be in the conversation. He is the one guy who eludes getting cut from the UFC all the time. and Z, i think there is no way Houston - Kimbo is a snoozefest. Neither guy has much regarding takedowns, so they both will stand for quite a bit of the fight. Neither has an iron chin. Only way i see it getting out of the 1st is if Houston Alexander stands outside (not wanting to get caught by a Kimbo swing for the fences) and delivers leg kicks.As for wagers for the event, most of my money is on Jon Jones. I also have mild plays on some random plays:Schaub +235Kimbo +250Madson +300McSweeney -115 I know Schaub and McSweeney trained with Greg Jackson's camp for this finale. That is a good factor alone, but i think something i have not heard anybody else mention is the fact that greg Jackson and his coaches were involved with this show. That means they were able to watch Big Country and Schoonover (I can't bring myself to call the guy "#######", that is just messed up) for 6 weeks of training. I have to think they know various strengths and weaknesses with these guys they can maybe exploit. Obviously these guys still have to go in and fight, but i think it could be a factor.

 

[AhrnCityPahnder]

The only 3 picks I feel strongly about are Big Baby, Houston, and Roy.

Big Baby is gonna have this fight on the ground in the first 2 mins and meathead will not make it out of the first.

Houston needs to stay outside and just beat the #### out of Kimbos knee with low thai kicks. Did anyone see his fight recently in that jabronie organization recently against Tank Pendergarst? Houston needs to do exactly the same thing here. Granted, Kimbo is quicker and scarier than Pendergarst, but I think if HA can rattle off 6 or 7 good kicks early that Kimbo won't know what to do. Expect fireworks wither way ... but I'll take HA by ref stoppage in rd 2.

Big Burger Country took a lot of heat in this series....but I was reading yesterday on another forum someone put forth the idea that Roy is a very smart fighter, and purposefully did just enough to win each fight as to not tip his hand. (arguable in how close that one decision was, but anyway...) He comes off as cocky. And he's never going to be a top 5 HW in the UFC, he probably will never even sniff a title shot. But I think he's going to give us some entertaining fights along the way. Go hunt down some of his fights in the IFL (especially vs Ben Rothwell), if TUF is all you know of this guy. Some serious brawls. Schaub, I like a lot. He seems to be a good dude, and his blog was a good read this year to supplement the show. He looked great in his fight against Marcus. I just don't think he's at the level that Nelson is on the ground. Nelson is an Abu Dhabi vet and a BJJ blackbelt. I think Nelson can with this on the feet or on the ground.

 

[Clayton Gray]

Roy is an absolute steal at -205.

Worst pound-for-pound fighter in the UFC.

Antoni Hardonk down?

Was making a joke about Nelson's girth.

 

[Clayton Gray]

Agree all around, Ahrn.

Mitrione has a puncher's chance, and that's about it. If it goes to the ground, it should be over. Meathead might tap before Jones even applies anything.

Houston Alexander absolutely chopped down Pendergast in that fight. It was brutal what he did to that dude's knee. If Kimbo couldn't knock out James Thompson, I can't see him taking out Alexander.

Nelson should have his way with Schaub on the ground. His guard was pathetic as Marcus Jones was able to pass with ease. Nelson knows what he's doing and will control the fight on the mat if he needs it to be there.

For other plays, I like McSweeney because I think Schoonover is pretty mediocre - he did win a match, but it was against the worst fighter in the house in Zak Jensen.

Justin Wren seems like a lock over Madsen. Wren hung well with Nelson, and Madsen is a definite step down from there. Of course, at -500, there isn't much to win.

 

[Bobcat10]

Anyone else with opinions?

 

[zander_s]

Agree all around, Ahrn.

Mitrione has a puncher's chance, and that's about it. If it goes to the ground, it should be over. Meathead might tap before Jones even applies anything.

Houston Alexander absolutely chopped down Pendergast in that fight. It was brutal what he did to that dude's knee. If Kimbo couldn't knock out James Thompson, I can't see him taking out Alexander.

Nelson should have his way with Schaub on the ground. His guard was pathetic as Marcus Jones was able to pass with ease. Nelson knows what he's doing and will control the fight on the mat if he needs it to be there.

For other plays, I like McSweeney because I think Schoonover is pretty mediocre - he did win a match, but it was against the worst fighter in the house in Zak Jensen.

Justin Wren seems like a lock over Madsen. Wren hung well with Nelson, and Madsen is a definite step down from there. Of course, at -500, there isn't much to win.

Exactly!! And big baby has a suspect chin, well i don't think it is suspect anymoreETA - I'm on Roy -165 (Betus) for 4u

 

[AhrnCityPahnder]

The only 3 picks I feel strongly about are Big Baby, Houston, and Roy.

:X

 

[Clayton Gray]

The only 3 picks I feel strongly about are Big Baby, Houston, and Roy.

Agree all around, Ahrn.

 

[Voice Of Reason]

Thoughts on UFC 107? I like BJ @ -280 and Kongo at +160, but I expect that I'll be able to get a better line on Kongo on fight night.

 

[modogg]

Roy is an absolute steal at -205.

Worst pound-for-pound fighter in the UFC.

Teila Tuli

There are a lot from the earlier years of the UFC. I would also think Alessio Sakara would be in the conversation. He is the one guy who eludes getting cut from the UFC all the time. and Z, i think there is no way Houston - Kimbo is a snoozefest. Neither guy has much regarding takedowns, so they both will stand for quite a bit of the fight. Neither has an iron chin. Only way i see it getting out of the 1st is if Houston Alexander stands outside (not wanting to get caught by a Kimbo swing for the fences) and delivers leg kicks.As for wagers for the event, most of my money is on Jon Jones. I also have mild plays on some random plays:Schaub +235Kimbo +250Madson +300McSweeney -115 I know Schaub and McSweeney trained with Greg Jackson's camp for this finale. That is a good factor alone, but i think something i have not heard anybody else mention is the fact that greg Jackson and his coaches were involved with this show. That means they were able to watch Big Country and Schoonover (I can't bring myself to call the guy "#######", that is just messed up) for 6 weeks of training. I have to think they know various strengths and weaknesses with these guys they can maybe exploit. Obviously these guys still have to go in and fight, but i think it could be a factor.

man I gotta say this was turning out to be an awesome night, and would have been one of my biggest winners, if that debacle with Jon Jones didn't occur. Still made good money here, and have done well with MMA gambling for the last few months. Good feeling. I got absolutely screwed with the Jones loss, and that was my heaviest bet, but everything else did real well. Hitting a few of the high + odds really works out well. I still think these TUF events are great places to make some money. Now onto 107: I have not seen many lines out yet, and from what i have seen i do not feel comfortable with any of them yet. i make take a flyer on Diego +250 or so. The guy has fought some top level guys like Nick Diaz, and has held his own. Kenny-Clay should be a good fight, and the improvement in both of their trainings has me interested in what we might see. and Kongo-Mir, i really don't have much thought yet. here is the card:B.J. Penn (14-5-1) -300 vs. Diego Sanchez (21-2) +240Frank Mir (12-4) vs. Cheick Kongo (14-5-1)Jon Fitch (19-3) vs. Mike Pierce (10-1)Kenny Florian (11-4) -215 vs. Clay Guida (25-10) +175Paul Buentello (27-10) vs. Stefan Struve (22-3)Preliminary Bouts:Alan Belcher (14-6) vs. Wilson Gouveia (18-6)Matt Wiman (10-5) vs. Shane Nelson (12-4)Johny Hendricks (6-0) vs. Ricardo Funch (7-0)Rousimar Palhares (9-2) vs. Lucio Linhares (13-4)DaMarques Johnson (9-7) vs. Edgar Garcia (7-1)Kevin Burns (10-3) vs. T.J. Grant (14-3)- not sure what lines will come out, but i like Palhares, and maybe TJ Grant. I have to brush up on some of the guys on the undercard, but there may be value there.

 

[zander_s]

Diego +220 2u

Probably my only wager.

 

[Voice Of Reason]

Surprised by the love for Diego. I see BJ walking through him easily and think there is value even at -280. Diego's greatest strength is in scrambles and even then I don't like his chances vs BJ.

 

[Clayton Gray]

Surprised by the love for Diego. I see BJ walking through him easily and think there is value even at -280. Diego's greatest strength is in scrambles and even then I don't like his chances vs BJ.

Diego ain't GSP.

 

[sheerterror]

Thoughts on UFC 107? I like BJ @ -280 and Kongo at +160, but I expect that I'll be able to get a better line on Kongo on fight night.

I'll be on BJ for multiple units. The guy is simply untouchable at 155. I've said it in the past and I'll stick to it here, if you're going to lay this kind of a juice on a fight, make sure it's with an elite fighter - and BJ Penn is the elite of the elite of the LW division. I know people love Diego because he's exciting and well rounded, but there's not a single thing he has in his favor in this fight other than a size advantage. BJ's striking is way too crisp, he's got a great chin, incredible takedown defense and some of the best JJ in the whole world. He'll walk through Diego like he did Florian and then we'll be sitting here counting down until he fights Gray Maynard.Kongo-Mir is interesting. To me, this fight can be broken down very simply: Can Cheick Kongo keep this fight standing? If it goes to the ground and Kongo has not made SUBSTANTIAL improvements in his grappling abilities, then Mir is going to submit him with ease. Kongo is a tough SOB and he was able to withstand Velasquez's ground and pound en route to losing a unanimous decision, but Mir has phenomenal BJJ and will likely finish Kongo the instant the fight hits the ground. However, if for some reason this fight remains standing, either because Frank Mir thinks he knows how to box based on what he did to a gimpy Nogueira and chooses not to attempt takedowns, or because Kongo figured out how to not get taken down by a blowing breeze, then that's where the fight gets interesting. Kongo has a substantial edge of the feet in both overall striking and especially in power. It's a big if, but if these guys slug it out, I like Kongo to pull out the upset. More likely than not though, Frank Mir by sub.

 

[Pick]

107 looks like a great card, no?

 

[Corporation]

Is the sopcast channel still 24267? It says offline right now.

Well now it says it can't connect instead of offline.

 

[Corporation]

Still no sopcast, when does the channel usually go live?

 

[Worm]

107 looks like a great card, no?

Well... The Carpenter is fighting, so... yeah.

 

[Sebowski]

I took Belcher at -120

Heavy parlay on BJ, Fitch, and Belcher

Tiny Parlay on Guida and Kongo

 

[Voice Of Reason]

Thoughts on UFC 107? I like BJ @ -280 and Kongo at +160, but I expect that I'll be able to get a better line on Kongo on fight night.

I'll be on BJ for multiple units. The guy is simply untouchable at 155. I've said it in the past and I'll stick to it here, if you're going to lay this kind of a juice on a fight, make sure it's with an elite fighter - and BJ Penn is the elite of the elite of the LW division. I know people love Diego because he's exciting and well rounded, but there's not a single thing he has in his favor in this fight other than a size advantage. BJ's striking is way too crisp, he's got a great chin, incredible takedown defense and some of the best JJ in the whole world. He'll walk through Diego like he did Florian and then we'll be sitting here counting down until he fights Gray Maynard.Kongo-Mir is interesting. To me, this fight can be broken down very simply: Can Cheick Kongo keep this fight standing? If it goes to the ground and Kongo has not made SUBSTANTIAL improvements in his grappling abilities, then Mir is going to submit him with ease. Kongo is a tough SOB and he was able to withstand Velasquez's ground and pound en route to losing a unanimous decision, but Mir has phenomenal BJJ and will likely finish Kongo the instant the fight hits the ground. However, if for some reason this fight remains standing, either because Frank Mir thinks he knows how to box based on what he did to a gimpy Nogueira and chooses not to attempt takedowns, or because Kongo figured out how to not get taken down by a blowing breeze, then that's where the fight gets interesting. Kongo has a substantial edge of the feet in both overall striking and especially in power. It's a big if, but if these guys slug it out, I like Kongo to pull out the upset. More likely than not though, Frank Mir by sub.

I think Mir is very overrated and Kongo presents too many matchup problems for Mir. Kongo's weakness is takedown defense, which is something that I don't think Mir can really exploit early in the fight when both guys are fresh. Mir's cardio and heart have always been very questionable, so if Mir cannot get Kongo down early and Mir has to take a few on the chin to get inside, I really like Kongo's chances. Kongo showed great heart and cardio vs Velasquez with a very, very short training camp, so Kongo has a big edge if it makes it to the 2nd round. For the ground game, Kongo is not really as bad of a matchup for Mir than a lot of people are portraying him as. Kongo showed some vicious GnP in previous fights so if Mir pulls guard, Mir is still not safe. Mir is a much better bottom guy in terns of grappling so even if he does get a takedown, his base nor GnP is not nearly as a good as Cain's so I think Kongo may be able to hold position and use his power to scramble to his feet. I am definitely not saying that Kongo's ground is nearly as good as Mir's, I am simply saying that I don't think he is dead to rights as soon as the fight goes to the ground. Kongo has also never been subbed in any of his fights, so his sub D may not be as terrible as many are saying it is.

 

[YSR]

Still no sopcast, when does the channel usually go live?

WTF?

 

[BillyBarooo]

Thoughts on UFC 107? I like BJ @ -280 and Kongo at +160, but I expect that I'll be able to get a better line on Kongo on fight night.

I'll be on BJ for multiple units. The guy is simply untouchable at 155. I've said it in the past and I'll stick to it here, if you're going to lay this kind of a juice on a fight, make sure it's with an elite fighter - and BJ Penn is the elite of the elite of the LW division. I know people love Diego because he's exciting and well rounded, but there's not a single thing he has in his favor in this fight other than a size advantage. BJ's striking is way too crisp, he's got a great chin, incredible takedown defense and some of the best JJ in the whole world. He'll walk through Diego like he did Florian and then we'll be sitting here counting down until he fights Gray Maynard.Kongo-Mir is interesting. To me, this fight can be broken down very simply: Can Cheick Kongo keep this fight standing? If it goes to the ground and Kongo has not made SUBSTANTIAL improvements in his grappling abilities, then Mir is going to submit him with ease. Kongo is a tough SOB and he was able to withstand Velasquez's ground and pound en route to losing a unanimous decision, but Mir has phenomenal BJJ and will likely finish Kongo the instant the fight hits the ground. However, if for some reason this fight remains standing, either because Frank Mir thinks he knows how to box based on what he did to a gimpy Nogueira and chooses not to attempt takedowns, or because Kongo figured out how to not get taken down by a blowing breeze, then that's where the fight gets interesting. Kongo has a substantial edge of the feet in both overall striking and especially in power. It's a big if, but if these guys slug it out, I like Kongo to pull out the upset. More likely than not though, Frank Mir by sub.

I think Mir is very overrated and Kongo presents too many matchup problems for Mir. Kongo's weakness is takedown defense, which is something that I don't think Mir can really exploit early in the fight when both guys are fresh. Mir's cardio and heart have always been very questionable, so if Mir cannot get Kongo down early and Mir has to take a few on the chin to get inside, I really like Kongo's chances. Kongo showed great heart and cardio vs Velasquez with a very, very short training camp, so Kongo has a big edge if it makes it to the 2nd round. For the ground game, Kongo is not really as bad of a matchup for Mir than a lot of people are portraying him as. Kongo showed some vicious GnP in previous fights so if Mir pulls guard, Mir is still not safe. Mir is a much better bottom guy in terns of grappling so even if he does get a takedown, his base nor GnP is not nearly as a good as Cain's so I think Kongo may be able to hold position and use his power to scramble to his feet. I am definitely not saying that Kongo's ground is nearly as good as Mir's, I am simply saying that I don't think he is dead to rights as soon as the fight goes to the ground. Kongo has also never been subbed in any of his fights, so his sub D may not be as terrible as many are saying it is.

my .02: I think Mir takes the fight to the ground and submits Kongo with relative ease. Not even really worried if Kongo gets on the top as Mir can submit him from anywhere. Already took 2u on Diego ( play), and thinking of 1u on Mir as well. My record in MMA is shady at best, FWIW

 

[BillyBarooo]

Still no sopcast, when does the channel usually go live?

WTF?

i usually dont even check the usual suspects until the PPV goes live.

 

[zander_s]

Diego +220 2uProbably my only wager.

AddedGuida/Mir parlay

 

[Voice Of Reason]

I also think there is value on Paul Buentello over Struve. My only fear is Buentello goes crazy after being kicked out of AKA, that aside, I think he is smart enough to avoid getting subbed by Struve

 

[Clayton Gray]

My picks:

Penn - will be shocked if he doesn't win

Kongo - really think Mir is overlooking this fight

Fitch - he was originally facing Thiago Alves...slightly better fight than this...oh well

Florian - wish Guida could pull it out though...should be exciting

Struve - although Buentello does hit hard

No idea on Belcher / Gouveia - should be a great matchup.

 

[Clayton Gray]

Anyone notice that Mir came in at 264.5, which is about 20 pounds more than his last fight.

 

[AhrnCityPahnder]

Anyone notice that Mir came in at 264.5, which is about 20 pounds more than his last fight.

yep, watching the weigh-ins, he actually made a face when he stepped on the scale like he was concerned...I couldn't figure out why until I heard 264.5 -- thats a big bump for him. I doubt it happens, but I really hope Kongo KTFOs him.

 

[modogg]

i forget all of my plays tonight, but i am mostly on:

Kongo

Belcher

Buentello

i also think BJ takes it tonight, but it should be a better fight then people think. Diego brings a bit to the table, should be good.

 

[Voice Of Reason]

My picksenn - will be shocked if he doesn't winKongo - really think Mir is overlooking this fightFitch - he was originally facing Thiago Alves...slightly better fight than this...oh wellFlorian - wish Guida could pull it out though...should be excitingStruve - although Buentello does hit hardNo idea on Belcher / Gouveia - should be a great matchup.

Belcher should stop Gouveia in the 2nd or 3rd once he gasses out.

 

[modogg]

Anyone notice that Mir came in at 264.5, which is about 20 pounds more than his last fight.

yep, watching the weigh-ins, he actually made a face when he stepped on the scale like he was concerned...I couldn't figure out why until I heard 264.5 -- thats a big bump for him. I doubt it happens, but I really hope Kongo KTFOs him.

did it look like fat or what? i can't imagine he came in with a bunch more muscle.and i read Diego weighed 168 about 4 hours after the weigh-in. that is insane, putting on 13 pounds in 4 hours

 

[AhrnCityPahnder]

Anyone notice that Mir came in at 264.5, which is about 20 pounds more than his last fight.

yep, watching the weigh-ins, he actually made a face when he stepped on the scale like he was concerned...I couldn't figure out why until I heard 264.5 -- thats a big bump for him. I doubt it happens, but I really hope Kongo KTFOs him.

did it look like fat or what? i can't imagine he came in with a bunch more muscle.and i read Diego weighed 168 about 4 hours after the weigh-in. that is insane, putting on 13 pounds in 4 hours

I'll get a cap...one sec

 

[AhrnCityPahnder]

Mir at weigh-ins:

http://i45.tinypic.com/11viixt.png

http://i48.tinypic.com/e6abth.png

 

[modogg]

Mir at weigh-ins:

http://i45.tinypic.com/11viixt.png

http://i48.tinypic.com/e6abth.png

hmm, he doesn't look like he is out of shape. Interesting.

 

[Voice Of Reason]

Mir at weigh-ins:

http://i45.tinypic.com/11viixt.png

http://i48.tinypic.com/e6abth.png

hmm, he doesn't look like he is out of shape. Interesting.

Wow, that is the best Mir has ever looked. Hopefully that extra muscle will lead to him gassing out even sooner than normal, but if he's strong enough to put Kongo down very early that won't matter.

 

[modogg]

Mir at weigh-ins:

http://i45.tinypic.com/11viixt.png

http://i48.tinypic.com/e6abth.png

hmm, he doesn't look like he is out of shape. Interesting.

Wow, that is the best Mir has ever looked. Hopefully that extra muscle will lead to him gassing out even sooner than normal, but if he's strong enough to put Kongo down very early that won't matter.

sounds like it is a good thing, from cagepotato.com:When Frank Mir has let his weight get into the 260's in the past, it hasn't typically been extra muscle tipping the scales. Not unless that extra muscle was strategically hidden under layers of gut. It's no secret that he hates doing cardio, is prone to bouts of crippling depression, and he's more than six years removed from the chiseled young Adonis who appeared on the cover of Muscle & Fitness. But for UFC 107 Mir weighed in at a bulky 264.5 pounds, and for perhaps the first time in his career it was not a sign that he's been letting himself go.

Quite the contrary, in fact. Mir got with former Strongman Mark Phillipi and did a serious lifting routine to bulk up for this fight. Now he seems pretty sure that he won't get tossed around by the bigger heavyweights in the division, especially guys whose names rhyme with Lock Festner, but has he sacrificed any quickness and agility in the process? The extra weight might really help against a corn-fed wrestler, but against a lanky French striker it could be more of a liability.

 

[Voice Of Reason]

The more I think about Mir's weight gain, it seems like a bad idea vs Kongo. He's going to be even slower on the feet and his gas tank will be even worse than before. I think he'll have similar problems as Nogueria when he bulked up in the UFC. Big Nog fought at about 230-235 in Pride and at over 240 in the UFC, he finally wised up and came in at about 235 vs Couture and easily has his best performance.

 

[Sebowski]

Thoughts on UFC 107? I like BJ @ -280 and Kongo at +160, but I expect that I'll be able to get a better line on Kongo on fight night.

I'll be on BJ for multiple units. The guy is simply untouchable at 155. I've said it in the past and I'll stick to it here, if you're going to lay this kind of a juice on a fight, make sure it's with an elite fighter - and BJ Penn is the elite of the elite of the LW division. I know people love Diego because he's exciting and well rounded, but there's not a single thing he has in his favor in this fight other than a size advantage. BJ's striking is way too crisp, he's got a great chin, incredible takedown defense and some of the best JJ in the whole world. He'll walk through Diego like he did Florian and then we'll be sitting here counting down until he fights Gray Maynard.Kongo-Mir is interesting. To me, this fight can be broken down very simply: Can Cheick Kongo keep this fight standing? If it goes to the ground and Kongo has not made SUBSTANTIAL improvements in his grappling abilities, then Mir is going to submit him with ease. Kongo is a tough SOB and he was able to withstand Velasquez's ground and pound en route to losing a unanimous decision, but Mir has phenomenal BJJ and will likely finish Kongo the instant the fight hits the ground. However, if for some reason this fight remains standing, either because Frank Mir thinks he knows how to box based on what he did to a gimpy Nogueira and chooses not to attempt takedowns, or because Kongo figured out how to not get taken down by a blowing breeze, then that's where the fight gets interesting. Kongo has a substantial edge of the feet in both overall striking and especially in power. It's a big if, but if these guys slug it out, I like Kongo to pull out the upset. More likely than not though, Frank Mir by sub.

I think Mir is very overrated and Kongo presents too many matchup problems for Mir. Kongo's weakness is takedown defense, which is something that I don't think Mir can really exploit early in the fight when both guys are fresh. Mir's cardio and heart have always been very questionable, so if Mir cannot get Kongo down early and Mir has to take a few on the chin to get inside, I really like Kongo's chances. Kongo showed great heart and cardio vs Velasquez with a very, very short training camp, so Kongo has a big edge if it makes it to the 2nd round. For the ground game, Kongo is not really as bad of a matchup for Mir than a lot of people are portraying him as. Kongo showed some vicious GnP in previous fights so if Mir pulls guard, Mir is still not safe. Mir is a much better bottom guy in terns of grappling so even if he does get a takedown, his base nor GnP is not nearly as a good as Cain's so I think Kongo may be able to hold position and use his power to scramble to his feet. I am definitely not saying that Kongo's ground is nearly as good as Mir's, I am simply saying that I don't think he is dead to rights as soon as the fight goes to the ground. Kongo has also never been subbed in any of his fights, so his sub D may not be as terrible as many are saying it is.

Mir is doing a great job telling people how good he is. People are actually believing it.

 

[Voice Of Reason]

Thoughts on UFC 107? I like BJ @ -280 and Kongo at +160, but I expect that I'll be able to get a better line on Kongo on fight night.

I'll be on BJ for multiple units. The guy is simply untouchable at 155. I've said it in the past and I'll stick to it here, if you're going to lay this kind of a juice on a fight, make sure it's with an elite fighter - and BJ Penn is the elite of the elite of the LW division. I know people love Diego because he's exciting and well rounded, but there's not a single thing he has in his favor in this fight other than a size advantage. BJ's striking is way too crisp, he's got a great chin, incredible takedown defense and some of the best JJ in the whole world. He'll walk through Diego like he did Florian and then we'll be sitting here counting down until he fights Gray Maynard.Kongo-Mir is interesting. To me, this fight can be broken down very simply: Can Cheick Kongo keep this fight standing? If it goes to the ground and Kongo has not made SUBSTANTIAL improvements in his grappling abilities, then Mir is going to submit him with ease. Kongo is a tough SOB and he was able to withstand Velasquez's ground and pound en route to losing a unanimous decision, but Mir has phenomenal BJJ and will likely finish Kongo the instant the fight hits the ground. However, if for some reason this fight remains standing, either because Frank Mir thinks he knows how to box based on what he did to a gimpy Nogueira and chooses not to attempt takedowns, or because Kongo figured out how to not get taken down by a blowing breeze, then that's where the fight gets interesting. Kongo has a substantial edge of the feet in both overall striking and especially in power. It's a big if, but if these guys slug it out, I like Kongo to pull out the upset. More likely than not though, Frank Mir by sub.

I think Mir is very overrated and Kongo presents too many matchup problems for Mir. Kongo's weakness is takedown defense, which is something that I don't think Mir can really exploit early in the fight when both guys are fresh. Mir's cardio and heart have always been very questionable, so if Mir cannot get Kongo down early and Mir has to take a few on the chin to get inside, I really like Kongo's chances. Kongo showed great heart and cardio vs Velasquez with a very, very short training camp, so Kongo has a big edge if it makes it to the 2nd round. For the ground game, Kongo is not really as bad of a matchup for Mir than a lot of people are portraying him as. Kongo showed some vicious GnP in previous fights so if Mir pulls guard, Mir is still not safe. Mir is a much better bottom guy in terns of grappling so even if he does get a takedown, his base nor GnP is not nearly as a good as Cain's so I think Kongo may be able to hold position and use his power to scramble to his feet. I am definitely not saying that Kongo's ground is nearly as good as Mir's, I am simply saying that I don't think he is dead to rights as soon as the fight goes to the ground. Kongo has also never been subbed in any of his fights, so his sub D may not be as terrible as many are saying it is.

Mir is doing a great job telling people how good he is. People are actually believing it.

 

[Sebowski]

Mir won that fight fight on his feet. Great punch. Really impressive. I still want to see him fight Cain, Carwin or a Staff-less Nog before he thinks about a title. I ended up doing very well with this:

I took Belcher at -120Heavy parlay on BJ, Fitch, and BelcherTiny Parlay on Guida and Kongo

Glad I kept it small on the underdog parlay. It is easy to talk yourself into increasing those.

 

[sheerterror]

Mir won that fight fight on his feet. Great punch. Really impressive. I still want to see him fight Cain, Carwin or a Staff-less Nog before he thinks about a title. I ended up doing very well with this:

I took Belcher at -120Heavy parlay on BJ, Fitch, and BelcherTiny Parlay on Guida and Kongo

Glad I kept it small on the underdog parlay. It is easy to talk yourself into increasing those.

I'm salivating at the opportunity to make back what I lost on Nog the first time he fought Mir if they were ever to have a rematch.