Sebowski
Footballguy
UFC has pulled Ellenberger off the card and given his spot against Ben Saunders to Fitch. They're going to pay Ellenberger his win and show bonus. I hope Saunders has been working on his takedown defense.
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UFC wagering: no longer stuck with the old thread title. The window to change it is here! (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter AhrnCityPahnder
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modogg
Footballguy
i agree. if Fitch keeps it standing it will be fun to watch, but he can probably outwrestle Saunders to a decision if he wants. i do not think that will help his cause for a re-match with GSP so hopefully he doesn't do that.props to the UFC for paying Ellenberger his show and win bonus.
Sebowski
Footballguy
If Swick could keep Saunders down Fitch shouldn't have a problem with it. Every round starts standing though, and Saunders only needs one good clinch to knee Fitch's teeth into his throat.
I skimmed somewhere that Saunders asked for Fitch.
Abrantes
Footballguy
Eh, after the beating Fitch survived in the GSP fight, I have a hard time seeing Saunders putting him away. I know some people love the guy, but I just don't think Saunders is polished enough to beat Fitch and that kind of fighter at this point in his career. At all. Props to Saunders for asking for that kind of challenge, though.We'll see. Not nearly as exciting as Pitbull/Fitch, but far better than Ellenberger/Saunders.
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AhrnCityPahnder
Yinz-o-riffic
agree, agree, don't.
kutta
Footballguy
Yeah, 40 for the two of us. I agree about the alcohol, but the wife isn't a big drinker anyway. I'm thinking of smuggling in some Jack for my movie cokes to go with the movie popcorn and hot dogs We like to attend the fights live, and there is no pausing and rewinding there, so I'm thinking this should be OK. Also, my wife doesn't like to watch all the in between stuff, but I like it. This way she is forced to watch it.I'm hoping it's not too crowded and we get good seats. I'm looking forward to the big screen and good sound.
Voice Of Reason
Footballguy
I wish I knew more about Matt Brown, as I think Ricardo Almedia is overrated coming off his last fight.
I thought Kendall Grove gave him a good fight and Grove should have won a close decision, but seemingly everyone had it a clear cut Almedia win.
I thought Kendall Grove gave him a good fight and Grove should have won a close decision, but seemingly everyone had it a clear cut Almedia win.
modogg
Footballguy
I really think a fair comparison to Matt Brown is Chris Lytle. Brown is not as technically crisp as Lytle, but he has solid BJJ, and he seems to be able to fight through any trouble he runs into. i do think this fight will be a good test for both, and if it lasts long enough should give a clearer picture of both. i bought out a little of my bet on Almeida, because Brown is an enigma. I also went to buy a little out of my money I have on Carwin (not due to lack of confidence in, just have more then i would like to have on him right now), but the stupid line has moved the wrong way. Carwin at +130 is a great price i think, at the least it should be even odds. Mir has been KO'd more then oncei also got money on Wallace at -130 and took $20 on Saunders and Bocek each because both have a chance.
sheerterror
Footballguy
This almost felt like a loss as I probably should have had Junior Dos Santos vs. Cro Cop or Nate Marquardt vs. Demian Maia numbers on Carwin, especially when he jumped to +145 before the fight. Oh well. Drunk bets on Fitch and GSP made up for it a bit I guess.
Sebowski
Footballguy
Markham missing weight scared me off of him. Ended up betting on Almeida straight and also parlaying him with Carwin. That made me back everything I lost last week. I like Florian over Gomi, but not at -300. I don't see any value in the Wednesday fights.agree, agree, don't.
modogg
Footballguy
Yeah, I think they set the lines pretty well for the Fight Night tomorrow. If I play anything, it will be light. Right now, I am leaning toward:Volkmann +190 over Ronys Torres - I like what I have seen so far from Torres, but Volkmann has looked good and has been against some tough competition. HE hung pretty well with Paulo Thiago and has the UFC jitters out of the way, so i may give him a shot.
Rob Emerson +125 over Nick Lentz - God I hate this bet because i hate Emerson. But i think the line is off and should be closer to even. I have to look at teh last few fights for both, but I know Emerson has looked a little better.
Jorge Rivera +230 over Nate Quarry - The only one I feel pretty good about, no idea why the line is set like this. Quarry looked slower in his last fight, and was gassed by the 3rd round in that fight with Credeur. I am not sure what to expect from Rivera, but this is more of a bet against Quarry with those odds
I also have a bet on Gleison Tibau at something like -170 or something, when the line first came out. that line has shot all the way up to -325, so if i bet more then $50 originally on Tibau it would be worth considering a nice arbitrage, but we'll see. And i may put a little on Gomi. I know it is a dumb bet and I am throwing away money, but I am getting talked into it by all of the Gomi-lovers and Pride fanboys.
modogg
Footballguy
i haven't seen the line yet, but apparently the Lesnar-Carwin line is:
Brock Lesnar -215 vs. Shane Carwin +175
I think there is value in Carwin, and with the line coming out so soon i anticipate the money wil come in on Carwin. I also guess as it gets closer to the fight, the money will come in on Lesnar, but I am not sure how much will come in on either side.
Brock Lesnar -215 vs. Shane Carwin +175
I think there is value in Carwin, and with the line coming out so soon i anticipate the money wil come in on Carwin. I also guess as it gets closer to the fight, the money will come in on Lesnar, but I am not sure how much will come in on either side.
AhrnCityPahnder
Yinz-o-riffic
I'd be skeerd of picking against Quarry. I'm a big fan of Credeur -- he's a legit fighter so I don't think it's terrible that Nate was gassed in that war. They were going full tilt. This would certainly be a nice win for Rivera, but I don't think he's ready to take that step yet.
I think Florian still may be worth something at -300. I expect Gomi to get dominated. I just think the game has changed too much from when Gomi was considered one of the best .... we know for a fact that Florian can hang with the top lightweights in the world, and may not even have reached his peak yet. Gomi is 4-3 in his last 7 fights (I refuse to call that NC to Diaz anything other than a loss.) I haven't even heard of some of the guys he's lost to recently. Maybe that is my western-bias showing.... but to me, Gomi being sold as one of the top 155#ers is all smoke and mirrors.
Abrantes
Footballguy
, though the Gomi line is tempting. Gomi winning would be more interesting for the division, as we'd likely get Gomi/Penn II immediately, but I just don't see him getting past Kenny. For all the hype, ever since his Pride days, Gomi has surrounded himself with yes-men and a camp that doesn't challenge him. While he stagnated, Kenny has been one of the most improved fighters in the world. His versatility and granite chin will be a tough combination for the Fireball Kid. I'm ignoring the chorus of fanboys and supposed friends telling me that now he has his motivation back. My gut feeling is that the fight goes to the ground early and Kenny wins by rear naked choke in the first round.Or I could be way off and Gomi murders him, but it's unlikely based on his last few fights.
modogg
Footballguy
it is a very tough first test for Gomi. i don't know how many fights he is signed for, but i would have rather seen him go against Diego (which moved to 170 so i guess that was out), or better yet, a fight against Nate Diaz., though the Gomi line is tempting. Gomi winning would be more interesting for the division, as we'd likely get Gomi/Penn II immediately, but I just don't see him getting past Kenny. For all the hype, ever since his Pride days, Gomi has surrounded himself with yes-men and a camp that doesn't challenge him. While he stagnated, Kenny has been one of the most improved fighters in the world. His versatility and granite chin will be a tough combination for the Fireball Kid. I'm ignoring the chorus of fanboys and supposed friends telling me that now he has his motivation back. My gut feeling is that the fight goes to the ground early and Kenny wins by rear naked choke in the first round.Or I could be way off and Gomi murders him, but it's unlikely based on his last few fights.
hooter311
Footballguy
I'm going to keep making money with Carwin until someone proves otherwise. Love him at that line.
modogg
Footballguy
I agree. it won't be as heavy as i went against Mir, but I agree completely with what Sheer Terror mentioned before with ring rust for Lesnar, and Carwin having more power in his hands then Lesnar. I don't know if Lesnar has ever been hit like that, and you have to like Carwin's training team. The one thing that does have me weary is that Lesnar was training with that illness the whole time. He seems to respect Carwin more and seems to be ready to prepare for him. Both have had a lot of time to prepare for the other, but I can not imagine either will have too many surprises for the fight (e.g. roundhouse kicks, omaplata, etc.)
Voice Of Reason
Footballguy
I actually expect both to have a few surprises for the other in this fight. Both guys haven't shown everything they can do with such limited cage time. Brock's game is improving leaps and bounds from training camp to training camp and Carwin has got to be learning a lot training at Team Jackson.I like Lesnar a lot in this fight because of the big advantages he has in his speed and his reach. The fact that Carwin is very hittable, much slower, and has a shorter reach is going to be too much for him to overcome in this fight. Shane's best chance is to do what he did to Mir and try to pummel Brock from inside the clinch, as Brock's strength as a wrestler is his double leg and not clinch work. I think it is unlikely that he both gets in close on Brock and controls him from that position, so i don't like his chances.
AhrnCityPahnder
Yinz-o-riffic
I tend to agree with VOR here. I've been bullish on Carwin thus far but I can't imagine how he's going to beat Brock. Brock has the superior wrestling pedigree and a significant size and strength advantage. I think Lesnar's main objective will be to shoot/smother/pound. Can Carwin keep the fight standing? Can he get back to his feet once he's on his back? Remains to be seen, but I'm very skeptical. Until I saw them in the cage together, I thought Carwin was a lot closer in size. Seeing the difference face to face this week.....yipes.
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hooter311
Footballguy
No discounting the fact that Brock is a huge dude. But Carwin punches harder and fights smarter. Carwin's submission skills are also stronger. If it becomes a wrestling match I'm not sure that Brock has that incredible of an advantage. Carwin has never been dominated on the mat either. Lesnar's striking doesn't really impress me besides his raw power. His ground game hasn't shown anything above ground and pound, but what else does he really need to use against 95% of the division?
I don't think Carwin can KTFO Lesnar, but I think he can hurt him and submit him, I think the fight will at least go longer than 1 round.
Carwin won't play mind games with Lesnar. Carwin kicks ### for fun, the rest of these guys are relying on the UFC to become the next generation of superstar.
When Carwin's time is done, he will probably fade fast and bow out of the sport quickly. Until that time, he is a force to be reckoned with.
The strength/wrestling advantage of Lesnar is being blown way out of proportion. I agree with modogg's initial thoughts that the line should be a lot lower.
I don't think Carwin can KTFO Lesnar, but I think he can hurt him and submit him, I think the fight will at least go longer than 1 round.
Carwin won't play mind games with Lesnar. Carwin kicks ### for fun, the rest of these guys are relying on the UFC to become the next generation of superstar.
When Carwin's time is done, he will probably fade fast and bow out of the sport quickly. Until that time, he is a force to be reckoned with.
The strength/wrestling advantage of Lesnar is being blown way out of proportion. I agree with modogg's initial thoughts that the line should be a lot lower.
sheerterror
Footballguy
Not a huge fan of this UFN card from a betting standpoint.
Action parlay on Florian/Pearson .55u to win .5u.
I'd love to bet Kenny straight but cannot justify it with all of the unknowns about Gomi coming in, and Florian being at -300. I still think the best Florian beats the best Gomi, but I'm not willing to lay 3 to 1 on it.
Action parlay on Florian/Pearson .55u to win .5u.
I'd love to bet Kenny straight but cannot justify it with all of the unknowns about Gomi coming in, and Florian being at -300. I still think the best Florian beats the best Gomi, but I'm not willing to lay 3 to 1 on it.
hooter311
Footballguy
Those are also the only two fighters I'm willing to wager on this card.I took the ml on both of them to win 1 unit a piece. Even at 3-1 I think Florian has value. Uphill trend vs downward trend. This fight would be reversed if it happened 4 years ago.
modogg
Footballguy
I did a Pearson/Florian/Tibau/Okami/Winner parlay that could work, but yeah, overall there isn't much value here. I do like the plays on Emerson and Jorge I got in, and if one, or both work out, i will likely put .33 unit on Struve at those +300 odds. That is a crazy thing about these lines, I can not figure out what is driving them. My only guess is that there is less action, and maybe sharper action on these cards. The Tibau line moved crazy. I got Tibau -170 on 2/21, and the line is -340 now. I may arbitrage on Uno for the heck of it with him at +260, so maybe that is where the money can be made on these cards.
AhrnCityPahnder
Yinz-o-riffic
Very wrong on Rivera here -- nice showing tonight from him. Good call modogg there.
modogg
Footballguy
thanks. I am not sure what is in store for Quarry, he didn'y look very good at all. I think Dana has a soft spot for him, and he gives exciting fights, but he looked real slow and combined with zero stand-up defense, could lead to trouble for himVery wrong on Rivera here -- nice showing tonight from him. Good call modogg there.
AhrnCityPahnder
Yinz-o-riffic
UFC 112 lines:
BJP - 700
Frankie Edgar + 500
Anderson Silva -800
Demian Maia +550
Matt Hughes -425
Renzo Gracie +340
Kendall Grove _145
Mark Munoz -165
Rafael Dos Anjos +120
Terry Etim -140
Alexander Gustafsson +400
Phil Davis -500
Lot of lopsided lines on Saturday, and Deservedly so.
Frankie Edgar doesn't have a prayer.
However, even with Marquardts comical KO of Maia fresh in my mind, I'm tempted to put a little something on Maia. I just can't help but think back to that Silva / Travis Lutter fight. How, of all people, did Travis Lutter impose his JJ game on Silva like that? Of course I know 20 different ways Silva could end this Maia fight, but I have a little nagging voice that says "why can't Maia do the same thing Lutter did?" I'll think on it today, maybe pull the trigger tomorrow.
Also, rationally I expect a Hughes Lay-n-Pray decision over Renzo, but i would LOVE to see RG choke out MH. Maybe enough that I'll throw something tiny on RG.
I don't know enough about Mark Munoz or Terry Etim to comment on those fights.
BJP - 700
Frankie Edgar + 500
Anderson Silva -800
Demian Maia +550
Matt Hughes -425
Renzo Gracie +340
Kendall Grove _145
Mark Munoz -165
Rafael Dos Anjos +120
Terry Etim -140
Alexander Gustafsson +400
Phil Davis -500
Lot of lopsided lines on Saturday, and Deservedly so.
Frankie Edgar doesn't have a prayer.
However, even with Marquardts comical KO of Maia fresh in my mind, I'm tempted to put a little something on Maia. I just can't help but think back to that Silva / Travis Lutter fight. How, of all people, did Travis Lutter impose his JJ game on Silva like that? Of course I know 20 different ways Silva could end this Maia fight, but I have a little nagging voice that says "why can't Maia do the same thing Lutter did?" I'll think on it today, maybe pull the trigger tomorrow.
Also, rationally I expect a Hughes Lay-n-Pray decision over Renzo, but i would LOVE to see RG choke out MH. Maybe enough that I'll throw something tiny on RG.
I don't know enough about Mark Munoz or Terry Etim to comment on those fights.
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hooter311
Footballguy
Grove/Munoz
Like Grove as the dog here and think the line will continue to go up on him leading up to the fight. Munoz is a hell of a wrestler, but Grove took Evan Tanner to a decision a few years back and won. Grove's chin is the one thing I'm worried about, but I don't think Munoz has the punching skills to lay him out. Whatever happens, look for this fight to be ultra aggressive and I doubt it goes past the first round.
Etim/Dos Anjos
This is a tough one. Where the line stands right now (Etim -130), I think there is good value in him as the favorite. Etim is a hell of a striker and is going to punish Dos Anjos. DS does have a chin to take the beating and top notch jujitsu. If he can take Etim down and keep him down he can pull off a submission. I don't know if Etim will be able to finish DS, but he should be able to take him to a decision if he can maintain control of the fight and force DS to keep his distance.
Hughes/Gracie
No way am I putting money on a guy who has never been in the octagon or had a fight in years. But wait, he trained the sheik that now owns a piece of the UFC and who this card is put on almost personally for. Reaks of a set up, or a match handpicked because Gracie thinks Hughes has some weakness he can exploit.
Penn/Edgar
Big fan of underdogs, but I agree with ACP that Edgar has no chance here. Value in Penn's line up to -750.
Silva/Maia
Also agree with ACP on this on. Odds are just too lopsided for there to be value on Silva. 4/5 times Silva knocks him out or dominates him to a decision. But if Maia gets control on the ground, he will break Silva's arm to submit him.
On the main card, I'll probably place a big bet to make a few hundred on Penn. Place 1/3 of that expected winning on Maia and the other 2/3 on Grove.
Undercard:
Veach/Kelly
Kelly shouldn't have dropped weight. Veach is going to hammer on him from the opening bell. This is my best bet of the card.
Osipczak/Story
I'm convinced that Story is an athlete and not a fighter. His athleticism has carried him to victory in the past. It won't happen here.
Davis/Gustaffson
Davis will almost certainly dominate Gust and end this quick. But is a horrible bet at the current posted odds.
Like Grove as the dog here and think the line will continue to go up on him leading up to the fight. Munoz is a hell of a wrestler, but Grove took Evan Tanner to a decision a few years back and won. Grove's chin is the one thing I'm worried about, but I don't think Munoz has the punching skills to lay him out. Whatever happens, look for this fight to be ultra aggressive and I doubt it goes past the first round.
Etim/Dos Anjos
This is a tough one. Where the line stands right now (Etim -130), I think there is good value in him as the favorite. Etim is a hell of a striker and is going to punish Dos Anjos. DS does have a chin to take the beating and top notch jujitsu. If he can take Etim down and keep him down he can pull off a submission. I don't know if Etim will be able to finish DS, but he should be able to take him to a decision if he can maintain control of the fight and force DS to keep his distance.
Hughes/Gracie
No way am I putting money on a guy who has never been in the octagon or had a fight in years. But wait, he trained the sheik that now owns a piece of the UFC and who this card is put on almost personally for. Reaks of a set up, or a match handpicked because Gracie thinks Hughes has some weakness he can exploit.
Penn/Edgar
Big fan of underdogs, but I agree with ACP that Edgar has no chance here. Value in Penn's line up to -750.
Silva/Maia
Also agree with ACP on this on. Odds are just too lopsided for there to be value on Silva. 4/5 times Silva knocks him out or dominates him to a decision. But if Maia gets control on the ground, he will break Silva's arm to submit him.
On the main card, I'll probably place a big bet to make a few hundred on Penn. Place 1/3 of that expected winning on Maia and the other 2/3 on Grove.
Undercard:
Veach/Kelly
Kelly shouldn't have dropped weight. Veach is going to hammer on him from the opening bell. This is my best bet of the card.
Osipczak/Story
I'm convinced that Story is an athlete and not a fighter. His athleticism has carried him to victory in the past. It won't happen here.
Davis/Gustaffson
Davis will almost certainly dominate Gust and end this quick. But is a horrible bet at the current posted odds.
sheerterror
Footballguy
One of the worst betting cards I can remember in quite some time. I'm struggling to find value in any line at all. I'll be rooting for Edgar, but BJ Penn is justifiably this big of a favorite because everything that Edgar does well, Penn does about 5x better. Silva's the best fighter in the world and will likely tool Maia, but Maia's got some of the best BJJ in the game, so it'd hard to justify laying -600+ on that fight. The Phil Davis hype train has already gotten out of control with -500 in his second UFC fight. He'll likely win, but a fighter that inexperienced is going to be a prone to a hiccup or two early on in his career so I'll certainly pass there.
.
Johnny Detroit
Footballguy
Write up from a friend of mine:
On April 10th two of the worlds best fighters will enter the octogon to defend their titles. Both men are pound for pound in everyones rankings. These men are undefeated at their weight class and have moved up to fight bigger and more powerful competition. These two men are BJ "The Prodigy" Penn and Anderson "The Spider" Silva. Penn will be facing off against Frankie Edgar, a UFC LW with great wrestling and hands that can be a threat to almost anyone. Silva, known for his dominance in the Middleweight and Light Heavyweight divisions, will be fighting Damien Maia, one of the best Jiu Jitsu players in the UFC and around the world. Also on the card is Matt Hughes vs Renzo Gracie. Both nearing the end of their fighting careers this a great matchup to see if Gracie Jiu Jitsu can overcome Matt Hughes emaculate grappling ability with ground and pound.
Hughes vs Renzo:
With this fight being announced and Renzo being out of the fight game for over three years, it wasn't hard for me to break down and determine how this fight was going to go. Renzo being an amazing Jiu Jitsu player himself has an excellent guard. He is also good from the top position. However, with Hughes being a dominant wrestler and great and positioning himself to not get submitted; I do believe it will negate any sort of offense from Renzo off of his back.
The striking game is a question for both fighters. Neither fighter is dominant on the feel and neither have shown to have amazing knockout power. Both have experience on the feet due to their training and previous fights, it just doesn't seem to stay on the feet long enough for either to show case their skills. I don't believe much of this fight will take place standing up. I expect a lot of single or double legs from Hughes, or throws from Renzo.
There really isn't much to say about this fight and it's understandable why Hughes is such a heavy favorite. Hughes will most likely take this fight via TKO round 3 or take the Unanimous Decision...
Prediciton: Hughes - UD
Silva vs Maia:
The most intriguing match up on the card in my opinion, is extremely risky for both fighters. Both have glaring weaknesses in a facet of their games and even though they are different they can certainly determine the outcome of this fight. Anderson will definitely need to work on his takedown defense from every angle. Maia needs to utilize head movement and proper foot work to get in on Anderson to take it to the ground.
On the feet this fight is all about Anderson Silva. Being a knockout artist with 15 (T)KO's in 25 fights, Anderson has the power and technical ability to defeat Maia with ease. Anderson hasn't been out struck or equaled on the feat since his fight with Ryo Chonan in 2004. That's just an indicator of how good he truely is on the feet. You may bring up his fight against Nate Marquardt, but I feel as if it were to be irrelevant seeing as he hit Silva with nothing and Silva found his weaknesses and finished him by (T)KO in the first round. This fight has a lot going for it but if it stays standing for more than 30 seconds at a time it could be a very short night for Maia.
The mat is where Maia excels. His guard game is one of the best and he always get's a submission from the top if there is an opening. Silva being a black belt in Jiu Jitsu seems to have little validity in an answer to stop Maia. Although Silva managed to submit Travis Lutter, Maia won't gas out and get submitted due to exhaustion. Silva can throw what he wants from the full guard which is where he is hoping Maia will be. If Maia at any point in this fight get's beyong the full or butterfly guard of Silva, it's another case of being there for more than 30 seconds can determine the outcome of this fight.
The odds on this fight are extremely off in my opinion. I've seen the odds at -700 Silva and +450 on Maia... That's absolutely crazy! If you were to bet on this fight nothing is absolutely sure. It would be safest to bet on Silva, and the advantage is that the fight starts on the feet. There is almost no way this fight goes the distance. I'll be going with the "safe" pick, being Anderson by Knockout round one.
Prediction: Silva - KO
BJ Penn vs Frankie Edgar:
This fight probably isn't going to be competetive. BJ Penn has slaughtered the arch-type of UFC fighters again and again. Edgar will be no different. The worst part is that the hype they are building for this fight is absolutely false and can not leave my mind as a travesty towards proper information given to the MMA community. BJ Penn has one loss at Lightweight against Jens Pulver and that goes back to 2002. BJ Penn is simply the best Lightweight in the world physically, and mentally. He may not have fought the stiffest competition, but it's not his fault. He is fighting the best the UFC has to give him and they are all quality opponents.
We have all seen what Penn did to Sherk. The Muscle Shark's T-Rex arms couldn't get past Penn's insanely good jab which set up lethal combonations. Edgar isn't ont he same level of boxing, although he may have slightly longer arms. The only fighters to ever take Penn down with their wrestling is GSP, Hughes, and Uno. Seeing as Uno was using trips and is the only fighter at 155 lbs to do so, I feel that Edgar is going to get his face battered, and confidence broken quickly in this fight. Penn is not just hype anymore. Before Penn was unotivated and trained just enough to win. Penn is now motivated and as we have seen is extremely difficult to hit or take down. He decimated Kenny Florian on the feet, made Diego say "NO!" and quite frankly (no pun intended) will make Edgar think about his career as a professional fighter.
This fight is a mismatch and I really hope that the UFC can sign a JZ Calvancante, or an Eddie Alvarez to give Penn a real opponent. Penn wins this by RNC round 3.
Prediction: Penn - Submission round 3.
Recap: Being in Abu Dhabi this card has some good fighters on it. The UFC is trying to market towards another audience and whether or not they are successfull is yet to be seen. However, the match up outcomes on this card can be seen from a mile away. I hope everyone enjoys the fights.
Predicitons:
Hughes - UD
Silva - KO round 1
Penn - RNC round 3
On April 10th two of the worlds best fighters will enter the octogon to defend their titles. Both men are pound for pound in everyones rankings. These men are undefeated at their weight class and have moved up to fight bigger and more powerful competition. These two men are BJ "The Prodigy" Penn and Anderson "The Spider" Silva. Penn will be facing off against Frankie Edgar, a UFC LW with great wrestling and hands that can be a threat to almost anyone. Silva, known for his dominance in the Middleweight and Light Heavyweight divisions, will be fighting Damien Maia, one of the best Jiu Jitsu players in the UFC and around the world. Also on the card is Matt Hughes vs Renzo Gracie. Both nearing the end of their fighting careers this a great matchup to see if Gracie Jiu Jitsu can overcome Matt Hughes emaculate grappling ability with ground and pound.
Hughes vs Renzo:
With this fight being announced and Renzo being out of the fight game for over three years, it wasn't hard for me to break down and determine how this fight was going to go. Renzo being an amazing Jiu Jitsu player himself has an excellent guard. He is also good from the top position. However, with Hughes being a dominant wrestler and great and positioning himself to not get submitted; I do believe it will negate any sort of offense from Renzo off of his back.
The striking game is a question for both fighters. Neither fighter is dominant on the feel and neither have shown to have amazing knockout power. Both have experience on the feet due to their training and previous fights, it just doesn't seem to stay on the feet long enough for either to show case their skills. I don't believe much of this fight will take place standing up. I expect a lot of single or double legs from Hughes, or throws from Renzo.
There really isn't much to say about this fight and it's understandable why Hughes is such a heavy favorite. Hughes will most likely take this fight via TKO round 3 or take the Unanimous Decision...
Prediciton: Hughes - UD
Silva vs Maia:
The most intriguing match up on the card in my opinion, is extremely risky for both fighters. Both have glaring weaknesses in a facet of their games and even though they are different they can certainly determine the outcome of this fight. Anderson will definitely need to work on his takedown defense from every angle. Maia needs to utilize head movement and proper foot work to get in on Anderson to take it to the ground.
On the feet this fight is all about Anderson Silva. Being a knockout artist with 15 (T)KO's in 25 fights, Anderson has the power and technical ability to defeat Maia with ease. Anderson hasn't been out struck or equaled on the feat since his fight with Ryo Chonan in 2004. That's just an indicator of how good he truely is on the feet. You may bring up his fight against Nate Marquardt, but I feel as if it were to be irrelevant seeing as he hit Silva with nothing and Silva found his weaknesses and finished him by (T)KO in the first round. This fight has a lot going for it but if it stays standing for more than 30 seconds at a time it could be a very short night for Maia.
The mat is where Maia excels. His guard game is one of the best and he always get's a submission from the top if there is an opening. Silva being a black belt in Jiu Jitsu seems to have little validity in an answer to stop Maia. Although Silva managed to submit Travis Lutter, Maia won't gas out and get submitted due to exhaustion. Silva can throw what he wants from the full guard which is where he is hoping Maia will be. If Maia at any point in this fight get's beyong the full or butterfly guard of Silva, it's another case of being there for more than 30 seconds can determine the outcome of this fight.
The odds on this fight are extremely off in my opinion. I've seen the odds at -700 Silva and +450 on Maia... That's absolutely crazy! If you were to bet on this fight nothing is absolutely sure. It would be safest to bet on Silva, and the advantage is that the fight starts on the feet. There is almost no way this fight goes the distance. I'll be going with the "safe" pick, being Anderson by Knockout round one.
Prediction: Silva - KO
BJ Penn vs Frankie Edgar:
This fight probably isn't going to be competetive. BJ Penn has slaughtered the arch-type of UFC fighters again and again. Edgar will be no different. The worst part is that the hype they are building for this fight is absolutely false and can not leave my mind as a travesty towards proper information given to the MMA community. BJ Penn has one loss at Lightweight against Jens Pulver and that goes back to 2002. BJ Penn is simply the best Lightweight in the world physically, and mentally. He may not have fought the stiffest competition, but it's not his fault. He is fighting the best the UFC has to give him and they are all quality opponents.
We have all seen what Penn did to Sherk. The Muscle Shark's T-Rex arms couldn't get past Penn's insanely good jab which set up lethal combonations. Edgar isn't ont he same level of boxing, although he may have slightly longer arms. The only fighters to ever take Penn down with their wrestling is GSP, Hughes, and Uno. Seeing as Uno was using trips and is the only fighter at 155 lbs to do so, I feel that Edgar is going to get his face battered, and confidence broken quickly in this fight. Penn is not just hype anymore. Before Penn was unotivated and trained just enough to win. Penn is now motivated and as we have seen is extremely difficult to hit or take down. He decimated Kenny Florian on the feet, made Diego say "NO!" and quite frankly (no pun intended) will make Edgar think about his career as a professional fighter.
This fight is a mismatch and I really hope that the UFC can sign a JZ Calvancante, or an Eddie Alvarez to give Penn a real opponent. Penn wins this by RNC round 3.
Prediction: Penn - Submission round 3.
Recap: Being in Abu Dhabi this card has some good fighters on it. The UFC is trying to market towards another audience and whether or not they are successfull is yet to be seen. However, the match up outcomes on this card can be seen from a mile away. I hope everyone enjoys the fights.
Predicitons:
Hughes - UD
Silva - KO round 1
Penn - RNC round 3
Agreed except that it seems pretty safe to bet anything you can afford on Penn. I only fear him losing by freak knee injury while hopping on one leg to avoid a takedown.
Sebowski
Footballguy
I'm a huge Penn fan, and I'm a little nervous. If Frankie fights smart he may be able to win a couple of the first 3 rounds and then it is anyone's fight if it goes to the judges.
sheerterror
Footballguy
Ended up with a parlay of Munoz, Davis and Hughes.
I believe Hughes is one of the safest plays on the card. Renzo's been out of the game for a while and was never a particularly formidable fighter as it was IMO. Hughes will certainly get the better of the standup, and his stiflying top game will not allow Gracie any room to operate from his back. I think Hughes grinds out a decision 75% of the time. The only thing that has kept me from making a straight play on this is the fear of Hughes showing up "old," which is probably unlikely given his style, but I'm not confident enough in a guy on the downside of his career to lay -400ish. Very strange that the line has dropped pretty drastically - are people betting on the Gracie name?
Sentimentally rooting for Frankie Edgar here (from NJ, and it'll help me feel better about my Sherk-Edgar debacle from last summer.)
I believe Hughes is one of the safest plays on the card. Renzo's been out of the game for a while and was never a particularly formidable fighter as it was IMO. Hughes will certainly get the better of the standup, and his stiflying top game will not allow Gracie any room to operate from his back. I think Hughes grinds out a decision 75% of the time. The only thing that has kept me from making a straight play on this is the fear of Hughes showing up "old," which is probably unlikely given his style, but I'm not confident enough in a guy on the downside of his career to lay -400ish. Very strange that the line has dropped pretty drastically - are people betting on the Gracie name?
Sentimentally rooting for Frankie Edgar here (from NJ, and it'll help me feel better about my Sherk-Edgar debacle from last summer.)
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hooter311
Footballguy
Good way to start the day.
modogg
Footballguy
Well, I know this looks like a Johnny-come-lately listing the picks for now, but this is what I had:
Munoz - big at -135 and -150: I predict this is the guy who will be the new John Jones or Phil Davis regarding lines. I hope he stays under the radar a bit, but he should destroy Grove
Story - good size at -145: I like this guy, and his fightds so far have been great to watch. If Riddle could beat Osipczak, Story will too.
Dos Anjos - .75 unit at +135: i think this fight could be a toss-up, but Dos Anjos is legit as a fighter. I am guessing Etim is the favorite because he is much more exciting and great to watch, but the fight should be closer to even odds because Dos Anjos BJJ can beat Etim if it goes to the floor
Gracie - .25 at +285: Dumb, dumb bet, but i really hope Renzo wins. Likely Hughes GNP's to a decision win, or KO's Renzo, but I refuse to put money on Hughes.
John Gunderson +200 over Paul Taylor - .66 unit: Funny, i don't even remember why i took this one, but i took this last night when i got home pretty wasted because something made me think it was a good pick.
And Pick, I agree the card should be a real good one tonight. I am really torn between checking the results to see if the card has some real good fights to determine if it should be purchased or not. I am really torn because i am contemplating getting the WEC card later this month because it will be a great card to watch, and i can't pay for 2 PPV's a month. I would love to hear from anybody who either checked out the results or saw the PPV already if they think it is worth it. I may do the old internet charm as well, and see if i can find the fights online at this point too. i have never explored this option before, but some of the sites (like the fantasy MMA website - mmaplayground.com) may have the fights up by now
Munoz - big at -135 and -150: I predict this is the guy who will be the new John Jones or Phil Davis regarding lines. I hope he stays under the radar a bit, but he should destroy Grove
Story - good size at -145: I like this guy, and his fightds so far have been great to watch. If Riddle could beat Osipczak, Story will too.
Dos Anjos - .75 unit at +135: i think this fight could be a toss-up, but Dos Anjos is legit as a fighter. I am guessing Etim is the favorite because he is much more exciting and great to watch, but the fight should be closer to even odds because Dos Anjos BJJ can beat Etim if it goes to the floor
Gracie - .25 at +285: Dumb, dumb bet, but i really hope Renzo wins. Likely Hughes GNP's to a decision win, or KO's Renzo, but I refuse to put money on Hughes.
John Gunderson +200 over Paul Taylor - .66 unit: Funny, i don't even remember why i took this one, but i took this last night when i got home pretty wasted because something made me think it was a good pick.
And Pick, I agree the card should be a real good one tonight. I am really torn between checking the results to see if the card has some real good fights to determine if it should be purchased or not. I am really torn because i am contemplating getting the WEC card later this month because it will be a great card to watch, and i can't pay for 2 PPV's a month. I would love to hear from anybody who either checked out the results or saw the PPV already if they think it is worth it. I may do the old internet charm as well, and see if i can find the fights online at this point too. i have never explored this option before, but some of the sites (like the fantasy MMA website - mmaplayground.com) may have the fights up by now
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BillyBarooo
Footballguy
[No message]
zander_s
Footballguy
modogg
Footballguy
I still haven't got over that one yet, but it is a good point you bring up, and i feel a little better about it too. And the card worked out well for me today. It wasn't as easy for some as i thought, but the account looks a lot better today then it did yesterday thanks to this card. Only big bet i have left in pending MMA wise is Mitrione over Slice. If Gegard opens well against King Mo i will hit that nicely. Same with Aldo over Urijah Faber later this month as well. not sure how much, but they are certainly the leans right now
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modogg
Footballguy
tough break man. I was considering hedging a bit on my Munoz play this morning (luckily i woke up late so it wasn't even an option), and Grove looked better then i thought he would. And it is a shame you didn't put a little on Frankie with those small plays you had at the end. We'll make it up soon, got a few cards coming up the next few weeks which hopefully will offer some good lines.
AhrnCityPahnder
Yinz-o-riffic
what a weird PPV. Gracie/Hughes have a ####ty kickboxing match, Edgar and Penn have a boxing match, and Anderson Silva goes bipolar and loses 75% of his fans.