GG rocked Carwin and took him down with ease - he couldn't keep him there, but I thought at the time that was mainly due to Gonzaga trying to advance position way too quick and not keeping his weight on Carwin in guard. That fight was short, but it was all Gonzaga until Carwin landed his big punch.Carwin's got heavy hands, no doubt, but that's all he's got - where else do you see an advantage for him? If GG can rock Carwin and put him on the mat that easily, how do you see him staying upright against Lesnar? Carwin's standup defense is weak at best, and while Lesnar doesn't have the same type of KO power, he's got the ability to land a good shot and stun Carwin - and if Lesnar gets on top of Shane, he's going to have a hell of a time getting back up again.I really just don't see much of a chance for Carwin - he's going to be outclassed in every area except power. That's been enough for him to stay undefeated so far (and like I said I'd be happy to see it happen again), but I think his streak is gonna end against Brock - I don't believe he has enough of an athleticism/skill level combination to beat Lesnar.
Yes, the Carwin-Gonzaga fight was all Gonzaga prior to Carwin KO'ing him, but let's be real here, Gonzaga landed 3 punches and then scored a single leg on a dazed, broken-nosed Carwin about 30 seconds into the fight - it's not as though Gonzaga was tuning him up for 3 or 4 minutes. From that fight we learned several things: Carwin can take a punch - you get tagged that flush by a HW with power like Gonzaga and don't get put away, you've got a chin in my book.Carwin recovers quickly - despite having his nose broken, Carwin maintained his composure despite being put on his back and was able to stand up almost instantly.Carwin displayed excellent stand up ability after being taken down - so, he got tagged badly, put on his back by one of the better grappler's in the HW division, a legitimate BJJ black belt, and still managed to pull guard from half guard and stand up seconds after being rocked. Carwin has legitimate, real KO power - seconds after being dazed, he standing KO's a tough dude in Gonzaga with an arm punch. Not sure how you can say Carwin is going to be "outclassed". I could likewise make the same statement towards Brock that if this fight stays standing, Brock is going to be outclassed. I don't care how he does it, Carwin's got some of the best stand up in the division. The technique may not be there, but the ability to take a punch and deliver with the kind of power that he does can trump quite a bit of technique disparity. IMO, he's second only to Dos Santos in the striking department in the HW division. Examining the likely paths to victory here:For Carwin: If he can stay off his back, he gains a SUBSTANTIAL advantage in this fight. Brock Lesnar, for all of his mounds of muscle and scary appearance and alleged power, has not shown any sort of legitimate KO power with his punches in any of his professional fights. The best punch he landed was the one that sent Heath Herring tumbling backwards across the ring, and that materialized into absolutely nothing other than a drawn out lay n' pray decision win. You can talk about Carwin having poor stand up defense all you want (seriously, has he ever truly been hit hard in any fight other than the Gonzaga fight to base this assessment off of?) but it's not like Brock is the poster boy for defensive boxing or head movement, he's gotten himself tagged up a few times, fortunately for him by guys with minimal power so it's easy to forget that it even happened. Carwin literally knocks out everybody he fights. This fight stays standing, and skill sets and previous fight history dictates that Carwin becomes the favorite in this fight - I don't see how you could argue it any other way.For Lesnar: Takedowns are obviously key here. If Lesnar can take down Carwin and keep him down, he's probably going to win the fight - either by wearing him down and finishing via TKO by strikes, or grinding out a decision. No secrets there. We know Lesnar's a big, strong, athletic, powerful, agile, [whatever other adjective you want to use to describe him] guy - this is no secret. We also know that Carwin will be the biggest, strongest guy Brock Lesnar has fought, and while not as credentialed, also has legitimate collegiate wrestling experience. We also know that Shane Carwin has ability to stand up after being taken down as evidenced in the Gonzaga fight where he did so against a more experienced grappler while being rocked. I'm not going to say that Gonzaga is close to as strong on the ground as Brock, or that Brock won't be able to hold Carwin down if/when he puts him down, but this is a huge wild card in the fight. If Brock struggles to take or keep Carwin down because of Carwin's wrestling ability or size/strength, Lesnar's going to wear himself out in an attempt to take or keep him down. Furthermore, we've got Lesnar coming off a year long layoff where he battled diverticulitis, apparently was fighting for his life at one time, and lost a substantial amount of bodyweight and strength. We DO NOT know if he has fully regained what was lost. The sheer fact that there is no proof that this is a 100% healthy, returned to full form Brock Lesnar is another thing that must be examined when considering a bet on this fight.It's easy to look at Lesnar and say "damn, this guy's a monster, no one's ever going to beat him, he's way too big and athletic." But examine both fighter's strengths and weaknesses, previous fight history, paths to victory in this fight and the wildcard of Lesnar having had such a long lay off due to a debilitating illness and I find it hard to justify a bet on Lesnar here. As I said in a previous post, I'm on Carwin for multiple units - because when you consider everything surrounding this fight, there's less questions surrounding Carwin's path to victory than there are Lesnar's, and the + vig makes this a very strong bet for me.