UFC wagering: no longer stuck with the old thread title. The window to change it is here! (6 Viewers)

[sheerterror]

Full card for tonight:

Daniel Roberts -185 to win .5u

Jon Madsen +140 risk .5u to win .7u: Hate betting on boring lay n' pray fighters, but if Madsen can utilize his wrestling ability, he's certainly a live dog to steal a decision win over Vemola..he's just got to avoid being KO'd in the process.

Dave Branch +200 risk .5u to win 1u: A good friend of mine is a training partner of Branch's and feels he's got the conditioning and grappling ability to hang with Harris, also has pretty crisp striking. I'm a Gerald Harris fan here and think he probably KOs Branch more often than not, but Branch is a live dog at +200 so I'll take a chance here.

Freerolling Ricardo Romero to win about .25u thanks to my local's slow moving line.

Quickest sub of the night props: thought process here is that there aren't usually too many subs on a given card - maybe 3 or 4, so I'm making 3 very small plays on guys that I feel have a moderate chance of winning via sub, and hoping the timing works itself out. Played each for .1u.

Branch +800: If Branch wins, I feel it's going to be by catching Harris in a sub after (if?) he gasses himself out.

Daniel Roberts +450: Roberts takes on Forrest Petz who is a late injury replacement. 4 of Petz's 7 career losses have come by submission, 7 of Roberts' 10 career wins have come via submission...playing on the likelihood of a Roberts submission win here and hoping it comes quick.

Chris Lytle +700: Lytle's got some very solid grappling ability, and he's said in interviews that while he promises an exciting fight, he may not be fighting the way many expect him to - which leads me to believe he may attempt to utilize this grappling ability instead of choosing to stand and bang with Matt Brown. Given Lytle's history of not following through on game plans, this is likely a throw away bet like the others, but as I said, I'll take a stab for .1u on each.

Stephan Bonnar/Krzysztof Soszynski over 11 minutes of fight time -140 risk 1.4u to win 1u: Playing the numbers here. Bonnar has never been finished by anything other than a cut - the last fight with K-sos was due to an illegal headbutt or else that fight would have likely gone the distance. Soszynski also seldom gets finished in fights - the last time he was finished was 3 years ago against a much stronger, more powerful [than Bonnar] Ben Rothwell. Barring a fluke KO here, I think this fight cruises into the 3rd round. Also love the fact that many books such as Bookmaker, Pinnacle and 5 Dimes have o2.5 rounds (aka 12.5 minutes of fight time) and yes this fight will go to a decision as a substantial favorite - in the -170ish range. So I'm getting 30 cents better price and an extra 90 seconds to work with.

1u parlay: Lytle/Soszynski/Akiyama to win 1.7u. Like all 3 of these fights, but not enough to play any straight at the current price.

Shane Carwin: 2u to win 3u at about +150. Bought out some of my position on Carwin. I posted a pretty big write up on this fight earlier in the thread, and while I maintain my thought process on this fight - I'm very, very skeptical of having more than 2u on this fight given the how much money has apparently come pouring in on Carwin, but with that said, I still think he wins this fight enough to warrant a multi unit bet at the odds I have him averaged out at.

Very weird betting card for me with more props/exotic plays than usual. I've been in a bit of a funk betting MMA lately, so hopefully I snap out of it tonight on what should be an exciting card. Hopefully everybody makes some money tonight.

 

[modogg]

Full card for tonight:

Daniel Roberts -185 to win .5u

Jon Madsen +140 risk .5u to win .7u: Hate betting on boring lay n' pray fighters, but if Madsen can utilize his wrestling ability, he's certainly a live dog to steal a decision win over Vemola..he's just got to avoid being KO'd in the process.

Dave Branch +200 risk .5u to win 1u: A good friend of mine is a training partner of Branch's and feels he's got the conditioning and grappling ability to hang with Harris, also has pretty crisp striking. I'm a Gerald Harris fan here and think he probably KOs Branch more often than not, but Branch is a live dog at +200 so I'll take a chance here.

Freerolling Ricardo Romero to win about .25u thanks to my local's slow moving line.

Quickest sub of the night props: thought process here is that there aren't usually too many subs on a given card - maybe 3 or 4, so I'm making 3 very small plays on guys that I feel have a moderate chance of winning via sub, and hoping the timing works itself out. Played each for .1u.

Branch +800: If Branch wins, I feel it's going to be by catching Harris in a sub after (if?) he gasses himself out.

Daniel Roberts +450: Roberts takes on Forrest Petz who is a late injury replacement. 4 of Petz's 7 career losses have come by submission, 7 of Roberts' 10 career wins have come via submission...playing on the likelihood of a Roberts submission win here and hoping it comes quick.

Chris Lytle +700: Lytle's got some very solid grappling ability, and he's said in interviews that while he promises an exciting fight, he may not be fighting the way many expect him to - which leads me to believe he may attempt to utilize this grappling ability instead of choosing to stand and bang with Matt Brown. Given Lytle's history of not following through on game plans, this is likely a throw away bet like the others, but as I said, I'll take a stab for .1u on each.

Stephan Bonnar/Krzysztof Soszynski over 11 minutes of fight time -140 risk 1.4u to win 1u: Playing the numbers here. Bonnar has never been finished by anything other than a cut - the last fight with K-sos was due to an illegal headbutt or else that fight would have likely gone the distance. Soszynski also seldom gets finished in fights - the last time he was finished was 3 years ago against a much stronger, more powerful [than Bonnar] Ben Rothwell. Barring a fluke KO here, I think this fight cruises into the 3rd round. Also love the fact that many books such as Bookmaker, Pinnacle and 5 Dimes have o2.5 rounds (aka 12.5 minutes of fight time) and yes this fight will go to a decision as a substantial favorite - in the -170ish range. So I'm getting 30 cents better price and an extra 90 seconds to work with.

1u parlay: Lytle/Soszynski/Akiyama to win 1.7u. Like all 3 of these fights, but not enough to play any straight at the current price.

Shane Carwin: 2u to win 3u at about +150. Bought out some of my position on Carwin. I posted a pretty big write up on this fight earlier in the thread, and while I maintain my thought process on this fight - I'm very, very skeptical of having more than 2u on this fight given the how much money has apparently come pouring in on Carwin, but with that said, I still think he wins this fight enough to warrant a multi unit bet at the odds I have him averaged out at.

Very weird betting card for me with more props/exotic plays than usual. I've been in a bit of a funk betting MMA lately, so hopefully I snap out of it tonight on what should be an exciting card. Hopefully everybody makes some money tonight.

i'll tail your Branch play, since i have heard the same things about Branch and I know you are a fan of Harris'And i agree that the card is aa weird one to bet on for me too. I don't have a good feel for any of the bets, so i will likely only have one or so that is over a unit.

And I would love to hear what the odds are for Brock or Carwin with the submission of the night bonus. I think if either get a sub, it will be submission of the night, similar to Cro Cop's. I also think Carwin has a chance at it because he has phenomenal submission coaches and partners at Jackson's camp, and they may try to sub Lesnar being that his submission defense may not be too good, and his only defense to this point has been to power out of the holds. I also think with the big discrepancy in pay for Carwin and Lesnar, that if Carwin wins the fight by submission or KO, he may win the bonus so that Dana can help his pocket a bit.

 

[modogg]

if i were to put the balance on the line, i would think about putting it on Lytle. He fights like a goofball half the time standing and brawling, when his skill set is probably better than brown's standing and on the ground. Lytle looked good in his last fight, and i could see him continuing that rise. The only problem is Brown can hit like a ton of bricks, and if he catches Lytle it could be "Good Night Eireen!!!". It is a tough card to wager on and the books set the lines pretty well (except for opening Carwin at +185 and Leben at +260)

Agree on betting the house on Lytle, except that I don't worry about Brown stopping him. Lytle has never been stopped by his opponent except twice where the doctor ended the fight due to deep cuts. One instance was the first time I heard anyone say, "I can see his skull." - Lytle was pissed at the stoppage.

i forgot about that one, was that his fight with Thiago Alves? i think that is who he fought at UFC 78, it was the best fight of the night, and it was a shame when it got stopped, but the guy is tough and i don't think he'll stand and bang with Brown since there is no point in doing that

 

[sheerterror]

Don't know what the line is for Carwin getting sub of the night, but Carwin quickest sub of the night is +2600 on my book. It'll be interesting to see if/how he would try to manipulate Brock's limbs given how strong Lesnar is, and assumedly, Carwin doesn't have a fraction of the technical ability Mir has in submissions.

 

[modogg]

not to get away from the fight tonight, but it looks like Strikeforce is throwing out any reasoning with their rankings, and will try Fedor-Overeem, with the winner getting Werdum:

- From Scott Coker:

"My feeling is maybe Fedor should fight Alistair Overeem and whoever wins that fight gets to fight Fabricio Werdum. I would love to see that fight too, Alistair and Fedor, I would love to see that fight happen."

"Here's the thing, we just saw Fedor fight Werdum; I'm not saying we couldn't do the rematch [Fedor vs. Werdum] first but I'm saying there are a couple options on the table."

"Until we sit down with M-1, we're just talking about different options and that [Fedor vs. Overeem] is one of the options."

I have to say, i think this is the best move for Strikeforce. It makes no sense, and is just silly, but with Fedor only having one fight left on his contract, this is how I would approach it if I were Coker. If Fedor loses to Overeem, Coker really has no reason to re-sign Fedor. If Fedor wins, Coker can probably negotiate with M-1 a little easier with them wanting the re-match with Werdum.

 

[modogg]

Don't know what the line is for Carwin getting sub of the night, but Carwin quickest sub of the night is +2600 on my book. It'll be interesting to see if/how he would try to manipulate Brock's limbs given how strong Lesnar is, and assumedly, Carwin doesn't have a fraction of the technical ability Mir has in submissions.

Yeah, that is a lot different than sub of the night prop. I have no idea how Carwin could do it either, but I think his strength is better than Mir or Herring, and he could have a chance at something. I have no idea how they could manipulate any limbs with such huge parts, but I am wondering what Carwin's gameplan is when he gets on hiis back, especially if it is not near the cage.

 

[Cliff Clavin]

What a joke strikeforce is. If fedor gets a shot it'll be two guys in a row to get title shots after loses. What a pathetic organization.

 

[Parmcat]

Anyone have any tips for where I might be able to see this online tonight???

 

[Cliff Clavin]

1u on carwin

1u on soitoropolous

.5u on grove

.5u on leben

 

[xmaise]

Anyone have any tips for where I might be able to see this online tonight???

I second that. Can someone PM me a link?

 

[modogg]

Ugh, did not anticipate Seth would get the adrenaline dump here. Hope he can still pull it out

Edit: that sucked. Wasted opportunity from Seth there, he should have won that fight a few times.

 

[QUEZILLA]

Anyone have any tips for where I might be able to see this online tonight???

Sopcast, veetle?

 

[goldenchild]

Anyone have any tips for where I might be able to see this online tonight???

Sopcast, veetle?

ahem, cough...adthe.net, ahem

 

[Parmcat]

I get sound...no vid....

Could be the ####ty network computers here at work

 

[Stingdiddy]

Anyone have any tips for where I might be able to see this online tonight???

Sopcast, veetle?

ahem, cough...adthe.net, ahem

I went to adthe.net, but, couldn't figure out where to go. Can someone PM me a link please?

 

[KGB]

Anyone have any tips for where I might be able to see this online tonight???

Sopcast, veetle?

ahem, cough...adthe.net, ahem

I went to adthe.net, but, couldn't figure out where to go. Can someone PM me a link please?

its atdhe.net

 

[modogg]

Wow, this thread got highjacked by the pirate team huh?

Anyway, i ended up somehow tonight, but Carwin was a bummer (Seth Petruzelli was too). I still can't figure out how he gassed so bad in that second. He had to train for a 5 round fight, and my only guess is he didn't pace himself enough in that first round? But i would have to think he has trained like that before, but oh well. Still ended up, but not by much and a Carwin win would have made it a nice night. Maybe it was a bit of an adrenaline rush or something, where the title fight got to him? I just can't make sense of it. Great win by Lesnar to weather the storm and take advantage in the second, but Carwin should have won that one

 

[flapgreen]

Wow, this thread got highjacked by the pirate team huh?Anyway, i ended up someho tonight, but Carwin was a bummer. I still can't figure out how he gassed so bad in that second. He had to train for a 5 round fight, and my only guess is he didn't pace himself enough in that first round? But i would have to think he has trained like that before, but oh well. Still ended up, but not by much and a Carwin win would have made it a nice night

have u been drinking

 

[modogg]

Wow, this thread got highjacked by the pirate team huh?Anyway, i ended up someho tonight, but Carwin was a bummer. I still can't figure out how he gassed so bad in that second. He had to train for a 5 round fight, and my only guess is he didn't pace himself enough in that first round? But i would have to think he has trained like that before, but oh well. Still ended up, but not by much and a Carwin win would have made it a nice night

have u been drinking

not enough. My typos are more of a result of my tears hitting the keyboard thinking of the money that should have been won tonight

 

[flapgreen]

Wow, this thread got highjacked by the pirate team huh?Anyway, i ended up someho tonight, but Carwin was a bummer. I still can't figure out how he gassed so bad in that second. He had to train for a 5 round fight, and my only guess is he didn't pace himself enough in that first round? But i would have to think he has trained like that before, but oh well. Still ended up, but not by much and a Carwin win would have made it a nice night

have u been drinking

not enough. My typos are more of a result of my tears hitting the keyboard thinking of the money that should have been won tonight

 

[BillyBarooo]

i hear ya, a carwin W would've made for a Uge night. I was already counting da money there in the 1st

 

[Clayton Gray]

At least we don't have to worry about Lesnar's chin anymore.

 

[modogg]

At least we don't have to worry about Lesnar's chin anymore.

I agree. Considering I don't think we'll see anybody be able to take him down, I don't think a slick sub guy can do a whole lot either. An Overeem Muay Thai Clinch with some knees could be interesting, but outside of that, I am not sure who can do what against him. Sheer brought up earlier that Cain could box with Lesnar, but the problem is i don't know if Lesnar will ever go to a decision, since once he is on someone his GNP should end the fight. Maybe Werdum could give him a run, but he would have to survive the stand up, and trick Lesnar into a sub. And i doubt that being that Lesnar's camp would have him well prepared for that

 

[Clayton Gray]

At least we don't have to worry about Lesnar's chin anymore.

I agree. Considering I don't think we'll see anybody be able to take him down, I don't think a slick sub guy can do a whole lot either. An Overeem Muay Thai Clinch with some knees could be interesting, but outside of that, I am not sure who can do what against him. Sheer brought up earlier that Cain could box with Lesnar, but the problem is i don't know if Lesnar will ever go to a decision, since once he is on someone his GNP should end the fight. Maybe Werdum could give him a run, but he would have to survive the stand up, and trick Lesnar into a sub. And i doubt that being that Lesnar's camp would have him well prepared for that

I'll be shocked to see anyone submit Lesnar now. Since the first Mir fight, when Lesnar is on top, he gives his opponent no room for movement. Werdum would be taken down, smothered, and pounded out. I don't think Overeem has much of a chance. I view him as a guy that shells up a bit when things don't go his way and easily see him being overwhelmed by Lesnar.A guy with good speed, good boxing and excellent take-down defense seems like a game opponent. Cain has that, but at 240 (which Cain says he'll stay at for the Lesnar fight) I don't think he can fend off Lesnar for 25 minutes. And if Cain bulks up, I doubt he'll retain the speed he now has.

 

[sheerterror]

Really interested in seeing a line for Brock-Velasquez. Cain can probably land pretty nicely on Lesnar in the exchanges, but I don't know that he has the power to stun Lesnar and attempt the in.

The fight I'm really excited to see is Lesnar-Dos Santos. Not sure if Dos Santos has legit takedown defense, but his striking is on another level in the HW division, and I think where Carwin rocks Lesnar, JDS can just about put him out - it would just be a matter of getting to Lesnar before he inevitably shoots for the takedown.

I ended up down on the card, but I feel pretty good about my bets. I feel Carwin was the right side of this play as he had Lesnar dead to rights, and realistically, with the stoppages we've seen of late, if this wasn't a title fight, that fight probably would have been stopped in the first. Unfortunately Carwin punched himself out and Lesnar valiantly and opportunistically took advantage with a quick takedown, excellent guard passing and a nice arm triangle to finish it. Sos/Bonnar was a shocker to end where it did, and that fight not lasting longer swung me the wrong way pretty good - but I feel like I made the right play given the circumstances and the available lines. Oh well, as a wise man once told me "we move on."

 

[modogg]

Really interested in seeing a line for Brock-Velasquez. Cain can probably land pretty nicely on Lesnar in the exchanges, but I don't know that he has the power to stun Lesnar and attempt the in.The fight I'm really excited to see is Lesnar-Dos Santos. Not sure if Dos Santos has legit takedown defense, but his striking is on another level in the HW division, and I think where Carwin rocks Lesnar, JDS can just about put him out - it would just be a matter of getting to Lesnar before he inevitably shoots for the takedown.I ended up down on the card, but I feel pretty good about my bets. I feel Carwin was the right side of this play as he had Lesnar dead to rights, and realistically, with the stoppages we've seen of late, if this wasn't a title fight, that fight probably would have been stopped in the first. Unfortunately Carwin punched himself out and Lesnar valiantly and opportunistically took advantage with a quick takedown, excellent guard passing and a nice arm triangle to finish it. Sos/Bonnar was a shocker to end where it did, and that fight not lasting longer swung me the wrong way pretty good - but I feel like I made the right play given the circumstances and the available lines. Oh well, as a wise man once told me "we move on."

I was looking to hear your thoughts on Carwin Sheer and if you thought there was anything you didn't account for going into this. I thought all the talk of Carwin having no cardio was overblown, and I still think it was because i didn't think this was technically a cardio an issue. I think maybe the issue was the big lights and a little inexperience, but i agree i don't feel horrible about the bet because it certainly looked like the right side. I think Carwin will destroy who he gets next, and would love to see maybe Big Nog vs. Carwin.

 

[Clayton Gray]

Really interested in seeing a line for Brock-Velasquez. Cain can probably land pretty nicely on Lesnar in the exchanges, but I don't know that he has the power to stun Lesnar and attempt the in.The fight I'm really excited to see is Lesnar-Dos Santos. Not sure if Dos Santos has legit takedown defense, but his striking is on another level in the HW division, and I think where Carwin rocks Lesnar, JDS can just about put him out - it would just be a matter of getting to Lesnar before he inevitably shoots for the takedown.I ended up down on the card, but I feel pretty good about my bets. I feel Carwin was the right side of this play as he had Lesnar dead to rights, and realistically, with the stoppages we've seen of late, if this wasn't a title fight, that fight probably would have been stopped in the first. Unfortunately Carwin punched himself out and Lesnar valiantly and opportunistically took advantage with a quick takedown, excellent guard passing and a nice arm triangle to finish it. Sos/Bonnar was a shocker to end where it did, and that fight not lasting longer swung me the wrong way pretty good - but I feel like I made the right play given the circumstances and the available lines. Oh well, as a wise man once told me "we move on."

I was looking to hear your thoughts on Carwin Sheer and if you thought there was anything you didn't account for going into this. I thought all the talk of Carwin having no cardio was overblown, and I still think it was because i didn't think this was technically a cardio an issue. I think maybe the issue was the big lights and a little inexperience, but i agree i don't feel horrible about the bet because it certainly looked like the right side. I think Carwin will destroy who he gets next, and would love to see maybe Big Nog vs. Carwin.

Ugh. Zero interest in seeing a slow Nogueira get pounded for 30-40 seconds.

 

[modogg]

Really interested in seeing a line for Brock-Velasquez. Cain can probably land pretty nicely on Lesnar in the exchanges, but I don't know that he has the power to stun Lesnar and attempt the in.The fight I'm really excited to see is Lesnar-Dos Santos. Not sure if Dos Santos has legit takedown defense, but his striking is on another level in the HW division, and I think where Carwin rocks Lesnar, JDS can just about put him out - it would just be a matter of getting to Lesnar before he inevitably shoots for the takedown.I ended up down on the card, but I feel pretty good about my bets. I feel Carwin was the right side of this play as he had Lesnar dead to rights, and realistically, with the stoppages we've seen of late, if this wasn't a title fight, that fight probably would have been stopped in the first. Unfortunately Carwin punched himself out and Lesnar valiantly and opportunistically took advantage with a quick takedown, excellent guard passing and a nice arm triangle to finish it. Sos/Bonnar was a shocker to end where it did, and that fight not lasting longer swung me the wrong way pretty good - but I feel like I made the right play given the circumstances and the available lines. Oh well, as a wise man once told me "we move on."

I was looking to hear your thoughts on Carwin Sheer and if you thought there was anything you didn't account for going into this. I thought all the talk of Carwin having no cardio was overblown, and I still think it was because i didn't think this was technically a cardio an issue. I think maybe the issue was the big lights and a little inexperience, but i agree i don't feel horrible about the bet because it certainly looked like the right side. I think Carwin will destroy who he gets next, and would love to see maybe Big Nog vs. Carwin.

Ugh. Zero interest in seeing a slow Nogueira get pounded for 30-40 seconds.

I think I agree, but Nog looked pretty good against Randy (for whatever that is worth). I don't know who they have Carwin fight next, maybe the loser of Big Country-JDS (figuring the winner will get the title shot after Cain), but i'm not sure who else. Kongo would get destroyed, and Mir will have a hard time selling himself as a HWY again.

 

[No. 16]

Really interested in seeing a line for Brock-Velasquez. Cain can probably land pretty nicely on Lesnar in the exchanges, but I don't know that he has the power to stun Lesnar and attempt the in.The fight I'm really excited to see is Lesnar-Dos Santos. Not sure if Dos Santos has legit takedown defense, but his striking is on another level in the HW division, and I think where Carwin rocks Lesnar, JDS can just about put him out - it would just be a matter of getting to Lesnar before he inevitably shoots for the takedown.I ended up down on the card, but I feel pretty good about my bets. I feel Carwin was the right side of this play as he had Lesnar dead to rights, and realistically, with the stoppages we've seen of late, if this wasn't a title fight, that fight probably would have been stopped in the first. Unfortunately Carwin punched himself out and Lesnar valiantly and opportunistically took advantage with a quick takedown, excellent guard passing and a nice arm triangle to finish it. Sos/Bonnar was a shocker to end where it did, and that fight not lasting longer swung me the wrong way pretty good - but I feel like I made the right play given the circumstances and the available lines. Oh well, as a wise man once told me "we move on."

I was looking to hear your thoughts on Carwin Sheer and if you thought there was anything you didn't account for going into this. I thought all the talk of Carwin having no cardio was overblown, and I still think it was because i didn't think this was technically a cardio an issue. I think maybe the issue was the big lights and a little inexperience, but i agree i don't feel horrible about the bet because it certainly looked like the right side. I think Carwin will destroy who he gets next, and would love to see maybe Big Nog vs. Carwin.

Ugh. Zero interest in seeing a slow Nogueira get pounded for 30-40 seconds.

I think I agree, but Nog looked pretty good against Randy (for whatever that is worth). I don't know who they have Carwin fight next, maybe the loser of Big Country-JDS (figuring the winner will get the title shot after Cain), but i'm not sure who else. Kongo would get destroyed, and Mir will have a hard time selling himself as a HWY again.

Lesnar>CarwinCainJDS>>The rest....

 

[sheerterror]

Really interested in seeing a line for Brock-Velasquez. Cain can probably land pretty nicely on Lesnar in the exchanges, but I don't know that he has the power to stun Lesnar and attempt the in.The fight I'm really excited to see is Lesnar-Dos Santos. Not sure if Dos Santos has legit takedown defense, but his striking is on another level in the HW division, and I think where Carwin rocks Lesnar, JDS can just about put him out - it would just be a matter of getting to Lesnar before he inevitably shoots for the takedown.I ended up down on the card, but I feel pretty good about my bets. I feel Carwin was the right side of this play as he had Lesnar dead to rights, and realistically, with the stoppages we've seen of late, if this wasn't a title fight, that fight probably would have been stopped in the first. Unfortunately Carwin punched himself out and Lesnar valiantly and opportunistically took advantage with a quick takedown, excellent guard passing and a nice arm triangle to finish it. Sos/Bonnar was a shocker to end where it did, and that fight not lasting longer swung me the wrong way pretty good - but I feel like I made the right play given the circumstances and the available lines. Oh well, as a wise man once told me "we move on."

I was looking to hear your thoughts on Carwin Sheer and if you thought there was anything you didn't account for going into this. I thought all the talk of Carwin having no cardio was overblown, and I still think it was because i didn't think this was technically a cardio an issue. I think maybe the issue was the big lights and a little inexperience, but i agree i don't feel horrible about the bet because it certainly looked like the right side. I think Carwin will destroy who he gets next, and would love to see maybe Big Nog vs. Carwin.

It really is a great example of how all the training and preparation in the world can never prepare you 100% for actually fighting - I'm by no means a competitive MMA fighters, but I suppose that a combination of adrenaline and having a live opponent truly trying to beat you is always going to be different than all the sparring you can handle in the gym. A friend of mine is a professional fighter, up and comer blah blah blah, but has pretty decent cardio coming in with D1 collegiate wrestling experience. Won his first 5 or 6 fights with 1st round KOs, in his next fight made it out of the first and was gassed in the second. He said he never realized just how tired you can make yourself in the process of punching yourself out trying to finish somebody and it took its toll on him pretty substantially heading into the second, where he ended up winning with an out of nowhere headkick KO, but I digress. I assume this is probably what happened to Carwin, trying so hard for the finish that come the second round, he wasn't explosive enough to sprawl on Brock's shock, and couldn't put up any semblance of a fight once he was put on his back.

 

[sheerterror]

Really interested in seeing a line for Brock-Velasquez. Cain can probably land pretty nicely on Lesnar in the exchanges, but I don't know that he has the power to stun Lesnar and attempt the in.The fight I'm really excited to see is Lesnar-Dos Santos. Not sure if Dos Santos has legit takedown defense, but his striking is on another level in the HW division, and I think where Carwin rocks Lesnar, JDS can just about put him out - it would just be a matter of getting to Lesnar before he inevitably shoots for the takedown.I ended up down on the card, but I feel pretty good about my bets. I feel Carwin was the right side of this play as he had Lesnar dead to rights, and realistically, with the stoppages we've seen of late, if this wasn't a title fight, that fight probably would have been stopped in the first. Unfortunately Carwin punched himself out and Lesnar valiantly and opportunistically took advantage with a quick takedown, excellent guard passing and a nice arm triangle to finish it. Sos/Bonnar was a shocker to end where it did, and that fight not lasting longer swung me the wrong way pretty good - but I feel like I made the right play given the circumstances and the available lines. Oh well, as a wise man once told me "we move on."

I was looking to hear your thoughts on Carwin Sheer and if you thought there was anything you didn't account for going into this. I thought all the talk of Carwin having no cardio was overblown, and I still think it was because i didn't think this was technically a cardio an issue. I think maybe the issue was the big lights and a little inexperience, but i agree i don't feel horrible about the bet because it certainly looked like the right side. I think Carwin will destroy who he gets next, and would love to see maybe Big Nog vs. Carwin.

Ugh. Zero interest in seeing a slow Nogueira get pounded for 30-40 seconds.

I think I agree, but Nog looked pretty good against Randy (for whatever that is worth). I don't know who they have Carwin fight next, maybe the loser of Big Country-JDS (figuring the winner will get the title shot after Cain), but i'm not sure who else. Kongo would get destroyed, and Mir will have a hard time selling himself as a HWY again.

Lesnar>CarwinCainJDS>>The rest....

Probably true, but all 3 guys edge Lesnar out in the stand up department, Carwin and JDS especially. If any of the 3 can figure out how to stop those ridiculously explosive takedowns, Brock's getting handed his first loss. I will give Brock credit, for a "typical" wrestling based fighter, he sure is active and fun to watch on the ground - he's not a lay on top and look busy enough to stay there type of wrestler like Jon Fitch.

 

[modogg]

Really interested in seeing a line for Brock-Velasquez. Cain can probably land pretty nicely on Lesnar in the exchanges, but I don't know that he has the power to stun Lesnar and attempt the in.The fight I'm really excited to see is Lesnar-Dos Santos. Not sure if Dos Santos has legit takedown defense, but his striking is on another level in the HW division, and I think where Carwin rocks Lesnar, JDS can just about put him out - it would just be a matter of getting to Lesnar before he inevitably shoots for the takedown.I ended up down on the card, but I feel pretty good about my bets. I feel Carwin was the right side of this play as he had Lesnar dead to rights, and realistically, with the stoppages we've seen of late, if this wasn't a title fight, that fight probably would have been stopped in the first. Unfortunately Carwin punched himself out and Lesnar valiantly and opportunistically took advantage with a quick takedown, excellent guard passing and a nice arm triangle to finish it. Sos/Bonnar was a shocker to end where it did, and that fight not lasting longer swung me the wrong way pretty good - but I feel like I made the right play given the circumstances and the available lines. Oh well, as a wise man once told me "we move on."

I was looking to hear your thoughts on Carwin Sheer and if you thought there was anything you didn't account for going into this. I thought all the talk of Carwin having no cardio was overblown, and I still think it was because i didn't think this was technically a cardio an issue. I think maybe the issue was the big lights and a little inexperience, but i agree i don't feel horrible about the bet because it certainly looked like the right side. I think Carwin will destroy who he gets next, and would love to see maybe Big Nog vs. Carwin.

It really is a great example of how all the training and preparation in the world can never prepare you 100% for actually fighting - I'm by no means a competitive MMA fighters, but I suppose that a combination of adrenaline and having a live opponent truly trying to beat you is always going to be different than all the sparring you can handle in the gym. A friend of mine is a professional fighter, up and comer blah blah blah, but has pretty decent cardio coming in with D1 collegiate wrestling experience. Won his first 5 or 6 fights with 1st round KOs, in his next fight made it out of the first and was gassed in the second. He said he never realized just how tired you can make yourself in the process of punching yourself out trying to finish somebody and it took its toll on him pretty substantially heading into the second, where he ended up winning with an out of nowhere headkick KO, but I digress. I assume this is probably what happened to Carwin, trying so hard for the finish that come the second round, he wasn't explosive enough to sprawl on Brock's shock, and couldn't put up any semblance of a fight once he was put on his back.

I know the muscle mass of guys like Brock and Carwin require a lot more O2 and stuff, so maybe that plays a part. I jsut wonder what he can do to prevent this from happening again. Not go for the kill in the 1st, or can he prepare himself better for that going forward? I used to box, and hitting a heavy bag for 2 minutes straight can be exhausting, and by no means is that any comparison to what Carwin did tonight. I am just wondering how he will respond and if/when this rematch occurs, how it will be different. I think this is at least a year away, but hopefully everyone can stay relatively healthy and see how this works itself out.And how is your buddy doing. Nice to see he is a professional fighter now, who does he fight for. A buddy of mine is friends with the guys who do Ring of the Cage (or whatever the league is up in the Northeast that fights in AC). Hope your buddy can keep it up, and hope he is in a good organization.

 

[modogg]

Lesnar>CarwinCainJDS>>The rest....

Probably true, but all 3 guys edge Lesnar out in the stand up department, Carwin and JDS especially. If any of the 3 can figure out how to stop those ridiculously explosive takedowns, Brock's getting handed his first loss. I will give Brock credit, for a "typical" wrestling based fighter, he sure is active and fun to watch on the ground - he's not a lay on top and look busy enough to stay there type of wrestler like Jon Fitch.

My thing with Lesnar is it sounds like he is never trained his boxingt a whole lot. I forget who they called down to help train his boxing, but he is actively training his boxing now. Considering where he is at after 2 years of training MMA, a year of training boxing could have him be able to hold his own in the stand-up

 

[Sebowski]

Lost on Tucsh 1U

Won on Leben 1U

Won on Lesnar 2U

Got 4 out of 5 on Carwin's UG pick 'em contest.

Also lost 1U on Argentina

And won 3U on Spain

Great sports day

 

[Cliff Clavin]

Fantastic night of fights. I can't remember another card where every single fight was great. Dana must be giddy.

 

[sheerterror]

Really interested in seeing a line for Brock-Velasquez. Cain can probably land pretty nicely on Lesnar in the exchanges, but I don't know that he has the power to stun Lesnar and attempt the in.The fight I'm really excited to see is Lesnar-Dos Santos. Not sure if Dos Santos has legit takedown defense, but his striking is on another level in the HW division, and I think where Carwin rocks Lesnar, JDS can just about put him out - it would just be a matter of getting to Lesnar before he inevitably shoots for the takedown.I ended up down on the card, but I feel pretty good about my bets. I feel Carwin was the right side of this play as he had Lesnar dead to rights, and realistically, with the stoppages we've seen of late, if this wasn't a title fight, that fight probably would have been stopped in the first. Unfortunately Carwin punched himself out and Lesnar valiantly and opportunistically took advantage with a quick takedown, excellent guard passing and a nice arm triangle to finish it. Sos/Bonnar was a shocker to end where it did, and that fight not lasting longer swung me the wrong way pretty good - but I feel like I made the right play given the circumstances and the available lines. Oh well, as a wise man once told me "we move on."

I was looking to hear your thoughts on Carwin Sheer and if you thought there was anything you didn't account for going into this. I thought all the talk of Carwin having no cardio was overblown, and I still think it was because i didn't think this was technically a cardio an issue. I think maybe the issue was the big lights and a little inexperience, but i agree i don't feel horrible about the bet because it certainly looked like the right side. I think Carwin will destroy who he gets next, and would love to see maybe Big Nog vs. Carwin.

It really is a great example of how all the training and preparation in the world can never prepare you 100% for actually fighting - I'm by no means a competitive MMA fighters, but I suppose that a combination of adrenaline and having a live opponent truly trying to beat you is always going to be different than all the sparring you can handle in the gym. A friend of mine is a professional fighter, up and comer blah blah blah, but has pretty decent cardio coming in with D1 collegiate wrestling experience. Won his first 5 or 6 fights with 1st round KOs, in his next fight made it out of the first and was gassed in the second. He said he never realized just how tired you can make yourself in the process of punching yourself out trying to finish somebody and it took its toll on him pretty substantially heading into the second, where he ended up winning with an out of nowhere headkick KO, but I digress. I assume this is probably what happened to Carwin, trying so hard for the finish that come the second round, he wasn't explosive enough to sprawl on Brock's shock, and couldn't put up any semblance of a fight once he was put on his back.

I know the muscle mass of guys like Brock and Carwin require a lot more O2 and stuff, so maybe that plays a part. I jsut wonder what he can do to prevent this from happening again. Not go for the kill in the 1st, or can he prepare himself better for that going forward? I used to box, and hitting a heavy bag for 2 minutes straight can be exhausting, and by no means is that any comparison to what Carwin did tonight. I am just wondering how he will respond and if/when this rematch occurs, how it will be different. I think this is at least a year away, but hopefully everyone can stay relatively healthy and see how this works itself out.And how is your buddy doing. Nice to see he is a professional fighter now, who does he fight for. A buddy of mine is friends with the guys who do Ring of the Cage (or whatever the league is up in the Northeast that fights in AC). Hope your buddy can keep it up, and hope he is in a good organization.

They always say excessive muscle mass will suck up oxygen and cause a more muscular fighter to tire out quicker - however, the opposite side of the spectrum is a fat(ter) fighter is carrying around pretty useless, unusable body weight so it's paramount for guys to find a happy medium. I really don't know exactly how one would go about avoid punching himself out (although I should figure this out given my line of work) but I'd have to assume it comes from pacing yourself, trying to maintain as much composure and stay as mentally relaxed as possible at intermittent points during the ground and pound so as to conserve as much energy as possible while still being effective with your strikes.My friend is doing real well - he actually fights in that same organization, Ring of Combat based out of Atlantic City - he's currently their HW champion....most of the northeast guys that are in the UFC have had stops there including Serra, Sell, Edgar, the Miller brothers, Pellegrino, etc. so they get some exposure to the bigger organizations. Funny side note, Ricardo Romero was from ROC, actually ducked out of fighting my friend twice in the last year or so...so it was definitely bittersweet for my buddy to see him sign a 4 fight contract with the UFC and then win his debut.

 

[AhrnCityPahnder]

what's your line of work?

 

[Voice Of Reason]

I don't think muscle mass or size actually effects cardio. Guys with bigger muscles have them because simply don't train a ton for anerobic and aerobic endurance. Look at Lesnar, he probably has more muscle mass than Carwin, but he has better cardio.

For the actual fight, I was really surprised at how poor both fighters were standing. I thought this fight would be similar to Edgar-Sherk in that Lesnar's reach and the threat of a double leg would keep Carwin out of range to punch effectively, however Lesnar's striking defense was so bad that it didn't matter. Lesnar's 0 head movement, very stiff upper body, and the way he seemingly reacts to getting hit are all things that I greatly underestimated. Carwin's standup wasn't great, but it was certainly good enough to best Lesnar. The mortal kombat style uppercut that landed between Lesnar's hands was terrible.

The non-stoppage was fantastic by the ref. Carwin was not landing clean blows with any consistency, rather most were hitting Lesnar's arms, and Lesnar was able to use his lower body to either push off Carwin's hips or defend himself. A ton of refs would have stopped this fight and obviously that would be been a premature stoppage. The ref in the Cyborg-Finney fight did the same, also a good job, but Finney wasn't able to mount a comeback so I hate how people bash decision not to stop it then. I wonder how many other great moments in MMA were missed due to overzealous refs.

Going forward, I think Cain probably beats Lesnar. Cain is a great wrestler and he's much more fluid in his movement than both Lesnar and Carwin. Cain should be able to land on Lesnar while standing. Lesnar tends to freak out when getting hit, he turned and ran into the cage off the Carwin uppercut, so if Cain lands, Lesnar would likely be taken down or swarmed on be Velasquez. If Cain would put Lesnar on back, Lesnar is done for. Lesnar look so poor in his ability to regain guard and Velaquez is very good at moving while performing ground and pound that he probably takes Lesnar out.

 

[Voice Of Reason]

Really interested in seeing a line for Brock-Velasquez. Cain can probably land pretty nicely on Lesnar in the exchanges, but I don't know that he has the power to stun Lesnar and attempt the in.The fight I'm really excited to see is Lesnar-Dos Santos. Not sure if Dos Santos has legit takedown defense, but his striking is on another level in the HW division, and I think where Carwin rocks Lesnar, JDS can just about put him out - it would just be a matter of getting to Lesnar before he inevitably shoots for the takedown.I ended up down on the card, but I feel pretty good about my bets. I feel Carwin was the right side of this play as he had Lesnar dead to rights, and realistically, with the stoppages we've seen of late, if this wasn't a title fight, that fight probably would have been stopped in the first. Unfortunately Carwin punched himself out and Lesnar valiantly and opportunistically took advantage with a quick takedown, excellent guard passing and a nice arm triangle to finish it. Sos/Bonnar was a shocker to end where it did, and that fight not lasting longer swung me the wrong way pretty good - but I feel like I made the right play given the circumstances and the available lines. Oh well, as a wise man once told me "we move on."

I was looking to hear your thoughts on Carwin Sheer and if you thought there was anything you didn't account for going into this. I thought all the talk of Carwin having no cardio was overblown, and I still think it was because i didn't think this was technically a cardio an issue. I think maybe the issue was the big lights and a little inexperience, but i agree i don't feel horrible about the bet because it certainly looked like the right side. I think Carwin will destroy who he gets next, and would love to see maybe Big Nog vs. Carwin.

It really is a great example of how all the training and preparation in the world can never prepare you 100% for actually fighting - I'm by no means a competitive MMA fighters, but I suppose that a combination of adrenaline and having a live opponent truly trying to beat you is always going to be different than all the sparring you can handle in the gym. A friend of mine is a professional fighter, up and comer blah blah blah, but has pretty decent cardio coming in with D1 collegiate wrestling experience. Won his first 5 or 6 fights with 1st round KOs, in his next fight made it out of the first and was gassed in the second. He said he never realized just how tired you can make yourself in the process of punching yourself out trying to finish somebody and it took its toll on him pretty substantially heading into the second, where he ended up winning with an out of nowhere headkick KO, but I digress. I assume this is probably what happened to Carwin, trying so hard for the finish that come the second round, he wasn't explosive enough to sprawl on Brock's shock, and couldn't put up any semblance of a fight once he was put on his back.

I know the muscle mass of guys like Brock and Carwin require a lot more O2 and stuff, so maybe that plays a part. I jsut wonder what he can do to prevent this from happening again. Not go for the kill in the 1st, or can he prepare himself better for that going forward? I used to box, and hitting a heavy bag for 2 minutes straight can be exhausting, and by no means is that any comparison to what Carwin did tonight. I am just wondering how he will respond and if/when this rematch occurs, how it will be different. I think this is at least a year away, but hopefully everyone can stay relatively healthy and see how this works itself out.And how is your buddy doing. Nice to see he is a professional fighter now, who does he fight for. A buddy of mine is friends with the guys who do Ring of the Cage (or whatever the league is up in the Northeast that fights in AC). Hope your buddy can keep it up, and hope he is in a good organization.

They always say excessive muscle mass will suck up oxygen and cause a more muscular fighter to tire out quicker - however, the opposite side of the spectrum is a fat(ter) fighter is carrying around pretty useless, unusable body weight so it's paramount for guys to find a happy medium. I really don't know exactly how one would go about avoid punching himself out (although I should figure this out given my line of work) but I'd have to assume it comes from pacing yourself, trying to maintain as much composure and stay as mentally relaxed as possible at intermittent points during the ground and pound so as to conserve as much energy as possible while still being effective with your strikes.My friend is doing real well - he actually fights in that same organization, Ring of Combat based out of Atlantic City - he's currently their HW champion....most of the northeast guys that are in the UFC have had stops there including Serra, Sell, Edgar, the Miller brothers, Pellegrino, etc. so they get some exposure to the bigger organizations. Funny side note, Ricardo Romero was from ROC, actually ducked out of fighting my friend twice in the last year or so...so it was definitely bittersweet for my buddy to see him sign a 4 fight contract with the UFC and then win his debut.

Carwin probably suffered a huge adrenaline dump after not finishing Lesnar in the 1st, that was probably a key factor in tiring him out. The same likely happened with Akyiama in the 2nd round vs Leben. To avoid punching yourself out, you simply have to pace yourself and not expend excess energy for no reason. A guy like Anderson Silva is really good at finishing guys on the ground without expending a ton of effort because he's very controlled and measured in his strikes. He gets a guy hurt, and waits for an opening in his opponent's defense to strike. A punch doesn't have to be powerful to do substantial damage if it lands cleanly.

 

[sheerterror]

what's your line of work?

Strength and Conditioning coach

 

[sheerterror]

Carwin probably suffered a huge adrenaline dump after not finishing Lesnar in the 1st, that was probably a key factor in tiring him out. The same likely happened with Akyiama in the 2nd round vs Leben. To avoid punching yourself out, you simply have to pace yourself and not expend excess energy for no reason. A guy like Anderson Silva is really good at finishing guys on the ground without expending a ton of effort because he's very controlled and measured in his strikes. He gets a guy hurt, and waits for an opening in his opponent's defense to strike. A punch doesn't have to be powerful to do substantial damage if it lands cleanly.

Yea I agree. A big part of the sports psychology field teaches athletes how to maintain composure and know exactly when (and how) to assert themselves at correct times."In another way, the mind is the controller of movement and the ability to activate and deactive muscle is a neuromuscular skill. The skilled mind can create a neurokinetic swirl of motor unit firing resulting in strength far beyond the reach of the untrained and unkilled."-Essentially the higher trained an athlete is, the more ability his mind will have to control his body and prevent things like "punching one's self out" or overexerting in certain situations. This is likely something that can't be duplicated very well in sparring sessions, because no matter how well you train, you can't truly duplicate the physical, mental or emotion effects that the actual competition will have on you. It makes you appreciate a guy like Silva who has honed this skill so well.

 

[modogg]

For the actual fight, I was really surprised at how poor both fighters were standing. I thought this fight would be similar to Edgar-Sherk in that Lesnar's reach and the threat of a double leg would keep Carwin out of range to punch effectively, however Lesnar's striking defense was so bad that it didn't matter. Lesnar's 0 head movement, very stiff upper body, and the way he seemingly reacts to getting hit are all things that I greatly underestimated. Carwin's standup wasn't great, but it was certainly good enough to best Lesnar. The mortal kombat style uppercut that landed between Lesnar's hands was terrible.

The non-stoppage was fantastic by the ref. Carwin was not landing clean blows with any consistency, rather most were hitting Lesnar's arms, and Lesnar was able to use his lower body to either push off Carwin's hips or defend himself. A ton of refs would have stopped this fight and obviously that would be been a premature stoppage. The ref in the Cyborg-Finney fight did the same, also a good job, but Finney wasn't able to mount a comeback so I hate how people bash decision not to stop it then. I wonder how many other great moments in MMA were missed due to overzealous refs.

Going forward, I think Cain probably beats Lesnar. Cain is a great wrestler and he's much more fluid in his movement than both Lesnar and Carwin. Cain should be able to land on Lesnar while standing. Lesnar tends to freak out when getting hit, he turned and ran into the cage off the Carwin uppercut, so if Cain lands, Lesnar would likely be taken down or swarmed on be Velasquez. If Cain would put Lesnar on back, Lesnar is done for. Lesnar look so poor in his ability to regain guard and Velaquez is very good at moving while performing ground and pound that he probably takes Lesnar out.

The thing with these guys standing is that it is a lot different scenario than Edgar-Sherk. Carwin can literally KO a guy with 1 shot, so Lesnar has to be careful with even letting a jab slip through or anything because it can stun him. It is just a different kind of stand-up for the HWY's, and it is why we will likely never see a Garcia-Jung or any of those fights like these because the impact from their punches is that much more. they also don't have the speed. Yes, head movement should be occurring with both, but they are both so focused on each punch that i would not think you would see more than a 2 punch combo from either. Of course these guys know 1000% more than I do about preparing for eachotherr, so i could be completely talking out my butt. And as far as Cain-Lesnar, I am pretty sure I will be on Lesnar (unless the line is just dumb). I don't think Cain can land with the power that Carwin can (though his accuracy may be better as seen against Nog), and Lesnar will not be as thrown off by a shot by Cain as he was by Carwin. I am also not sure that Cain can throw off Lesnar's takedowns like Carwin did. I also think the fact that Lesnar survived that barrage by Carwin does not have me too concerned if Cain gets him in a similar situation. I can see Cain gain a 10-8 round, but it will be tough to beat Lesnar in a decision because of his wrestling and cardio. I also do not know if Cain has the diversity in his stand-up like Carwin does. If a guy has punching power, it does not necessarily mean all of his punches pack power. Cain could have a great right cross, but getting caught by an uppercut is a whole different experience. Again, I have to look more into both to see what may occur, but i think Cain has to be more technnical on his feet rather than try and land a big punch. Carwin's power in his short punches was incredible, and i do not know if we have seen all of that from Cain

 

[Sebowski]

Lost on Tucsh 1U

Won on Leben 1U

Won on Lesnar 2U

Got 4 out of 5 on Carwin's UG pick 'em contest.

Also lost 1U on Argentina

And won 3U on Spain

Great sports day

Won the 2nd prize. Check out what I won:Get 4 out 5 right (only one possible winner): 1- case of Good4udrinks, 1- Dethrone Walkout Tee, 1- signed 8x10, 1- call from me to you (15 minutes), 1- Free consultation at Max Muscle, 1- signed Warrior Wear hat, 1- $30 dollar gift card to Performancemma.com, 1- free HeadBlade gift pack, 1- Sample Pack from Magnum Detox, 1-Tapout Home Mat by Dollamur Sports Surfaces and $50.00 MTX Audio Store Credit.

 

[modogg]

Lost on Tucsh 1U

Won on Leben 1U

Won on Lesnar 2U

Got 4 out of 5 on Carwin's UG pick 'em contest.

Also lost 1U on Argentina

And won 3U on Spain

Great sports day

Won the 2nd prize. Check out what I won:Get 4 out 5 right (only one possible winner): 1- case of Good4udrinks, 1- Dethrone Walkout Tee, 1- signed 8x10, 1- call from me to you (15 minutes), 1- Free consultation at Max Muscle, 1- signed Warrior Wear hat, 1- $30 dollar gift card to Performancemma.com, 1- free HeadBlade gift pack, 1- Sample Pack from Magnum Detox, 1-Tapout Home Mat by Dollamur Sports Surfaces and $50.00 MTX Audio Store Credit.

Wow, really? I saw that on the UG, but i never really gave it a shot. I had a login awhile ago, but i forgot my password. That is a nice grab there, what the heck are you going to talk to him about for 15 minutes on the phone? He doesn't seem like a big talker, so it may be up to you to lead the conversation. Sucky phone call for him after losing like he did, hope he is in alright spirits. I am suree we can think of some good questions for you. I love asking fighters about their walkout music and why they choose what they choose and seeing if they like to switch it up.

 

[modogg]

what's your line of work?

Strength and Conditioning coach

hmm, that sounds like a pretty sweet job for you there bud. You may have opened a can of worms though since I have seen Ahrn had a thread he started about him beginning training BJJ. I am trying to get my piece of crap shoulder to hold up a little better and when i can I want to jump into some Muay Thai at a gym. You could have a whole clientele on this site my man .

 

[Voice Of Reason]

For the actual fight, I was really surprised at how poor both fighters were standing. I thought this fight would be similar to Edgar-Sherk in that Lesnar's reach and the threat of a double leg would keep Carwin out of range to punch effectively, however Lesnar's striking defense was so bad that it didn't matter. Lesnar's 0 head movement, very stiff upper body, and the way he seemingly reacts to getting hit are all things that I greatly underestimated. Carwin's standup wasn't great, but it was certainly good enough to best Lesnar. The mortal kombat style uppercut that landed between Lesnar's hands was terrible.

The non-stoppage was fantastic by the ref. Carwin was not landing clean blows with any consistency, rather most were hitting Lesnar's arms, and Lesnar was able to use his lower body to either push off Carwin's hips or defend himself. A ton of refs would have stopped this fight and obviously that would be been a premature stoppage. The ref in the Cyborg-Finney fight did the same, also a good job, but Finney wasn't able to mount a comeback so I hate how people bash decision not to stop it then. I wonder how many other great moments in MMA were missed due to overzealous refs.

Going forward, I think Cain probably beats Lesnar. Cain is a great wrestler and he's much more fluid in his movement than both Lesnar and Carwin. Cain should be able to land on Lesnar while standing. Lesnar tends to freak out when getting hit, he turned and ran into the cage off the Carwin uppercut, so if Cain lands, Lesnar would likely be taken down or swarmed on be Velasquez. If Cain would put Lesnar on back, Lesnar is done for. Lesnar look so poor in his ability to regain guard and Velaquez is very good at moving while performing ground and pound that he probably takes Lesnar out.

The thing with these guys standing is that it is a lot different scenario than Edgar-Sherk. Carwin can literally KO a guy with 1 shot, so Lesnar has to be careful with even letting a jab slip through or anything because it can stun him. It is just a different kind of stand-up for the HWY's, and it is why we will likely never see a Garcia-Jung or any of those fights like these because the impact from their punches is that much more. they also don't have the speed. Yes, head movement should be occurring with both, but they are both so focused on each punch that i would not think you would see more than a 2 punch combo from either. Of course these guys know 1000% more than I do about preparing for eachotherr, so i could be completely talking out my butt. And as far as Cain-Lesnar, I am pretty sure I will be on Lesnar (unless the line is just dumb). I don't think Cain can land with the power that Carwin can (though his accuracy may be better as seen against Nog), and Lesnar will not be as thrown off by a shot by Cain as he was by Carwin. I am also not sure that Cain can throw off Lesnar's takedowns like Carwin did. I also think the fact that Lesnar survived that barrage by Carwin does not have me too concerned if Cain gets him in a similar situation. I can see Cain gain a 10-8 round, but it will be tough to beat Lesnar in a decision because of his wrestling and cardio. I also do not know if Cain has the diversity in his stand-up like Carwin does. If a guy has punching power, it does not necessarily mean all of his punches pack power. Cain could have a great right cross, but getting caught by an uppercut is a whole different experience. Again, I have to look more into both to see what may occur, but i think Cain has to be more technnical on his feet rather than try and land a big punch. Carwin's power in his short punches was incredible, and i do not know if we have seen all of that from Cain

I understood that the striking level would be much, much lower than that of Edgar-Sherk, but I thought that the problems Sherk had would be similar to that of Carwin. He did have that problem regarding the reach, but Brock looked so uncomfortable striking that he couldn't take advantage. The big uppercut that stunned Lesnar, Shane's arm was almost fully extended. This is poor technique as that punch has much less power, is slower, and would have left Carwin wide open to a counter. Keith Jardine throws an uppercut like that often and he's lost a few fights by counter left hooks off of that. Lesnar even had his hands in position to block Carwin's punch. Cain may not have the power of Carwin, but he's much more fluid and quick. He can throw in combination and can move while throwing without getting off balance, unlike Carwin. Lesnar also tends to freak out on his feet when getting hit, so if Cain can land one or two good strikes, something I think he'd be better at than Carwin, Cain should be able to attack.

I think Cain can stop Brock's double leg early as well as Carwin did because, although he's not as big as Carwin, he's probably a better wrestler. Couture at 225-230 lbs was able to stuff a takedown attempt of Lesnar early in their fight as well.

 

[sheerterror]

what's your line of work?

Strength and Conditioning coach

hmm, that sounds like a pretty sweet job for you there bud. You may have opened a can of worms though since I have seen Ahrn had a thread he started about him beginning training BJJ. I am trying to get my piece of crap shoulder to hold up a little better and when i can I want to jump into some Muay Thai at a gym. You could have a whole clientele on this site my man .

PM me any questions you guys have, I'll be glad to help out.

 

[modogg]

I understood that the striking level would be much, much lower than that of Edgar-Sherk, but I thought that the problems Sherk had would be similar to that of Carwin. The big uppercut that stunned Lesnar, Shane's arm was almost fully extended. This is poor technique as that punch has much less power, is slower, and would have left Carwin wide open to a counter. Keith Jardine throws an uppercut like that often and he's lost a few fights by counter left hooks off of that. Lesnar even had his hands in position to block Carwin's punch. Cain may not have the power of Carwin, but he's much more fluid and quick. He can throw in combination and can move while throwing without getting off balance, unlike Carwin. Lesnar also tends to freak out on his feet when getting hit, so if Cain can land one or two good strikes, something I think he'd be better at than Carwin, Cain should be able to attack. I think Cain can stop Brock's double leg early as well as Carwin did because, although he's not as big as Carwin, he's probably a better wrestler. Couture at 225-230 lbs was able to stuff a takedown attempt of Lesnar early in their fight as well.

I'm going to have to look at Cain's fights some more because I can't remember a ton of his fights off the top of my head. The one I want to see again is his fight againts Kongo. I remember he just took Kongo down a lot, but i can't remember what else he did in that fight. The fight that sticks out to me is his fight on one of the Fight Night cards against Denis Stojnic. Maybe he was fighting down to his competition there, but he looked pretty horrible in that one. I know Cain looked pretty good againt Rothwell, and the 2 minutes he fought Nog he looked good, but I don't know if i put his striking at a much better level than Brock's just yet. A good fight to look at is the other one you referenced though, with Randy vs. Brock. It is cliche, but in this case it is true that Brock has improved each fight. Considering he has only trained for 2 years, giving him 6 months of training can mean a lot. And the fact that he is paying all of this money to bring in top trainers has me thinking he is taking this seriously. If the rumors out there are true that they may headline UFC 119, Brock will have 2 months to get his stand-up looking better.EDIT: Also meant to add, Brock's defense is pretty bad, but when he puts his forearms and hands together to cover up, there is not much room for anything to get through. I don't think Cain can floor Brock with 1 hit, and i don't think he has a clinch game like Carwin's, so I am not sure where he will be able to utilize his combinations since Brock will stick those "lunch boxes" in front of his face.

 

[hooter311]

I understood that the striking level would be much, much lower than that of Edgar-Sherk, but I thought that the problems Sherk had would be similar to that of Carwin. The big uppercut that stunned Lesnar, Shane's arm was almost fully extended. This is poor technique as that punch has much less power, is slower, and would have left Carwin wide open to a counter. Keith Jardine throws an uppercut like that often and he's lost a few fights by counter left hooks off of that. Lesnar even had his hands in position to block Carwin's punch. Cain may not have the power of Carwin, but he's much more fluid and quick. He can throw in combination and can move while throwing without getting off balance, unlike Carwin. Lesnar also tends to freak out on his feet when getting hit, so if Cain can land one or two good strikes, something I think he'd be better at than Carwin, Cain should be able to attack. I think Cain can stop Brock's double leg early as well as Carwin did because, although he's not as big as Carwin, he's probably a better wrestler. Couture at 225-230 lbs was able to stuff a takedown attempt of Lesnar early in their fight as well.

I'm going to have to look at Cain's fights some more because I can't remember a ton of his fights off the top of my head. The one I want to see again is his fight againts Kongo. I remember he just took Kongo down a lot, but i can't remember what else he did in that fight. The fight that sticks out to me is his fight on one of the Fight Night cards against Denis Stojnic. Maybe he was fighting down to his competition there, but he looked pretty horrible in that one. I know Cain looked pretty good againt Rothwell, and the 2 minutes he fought Nog he looked good, but I don't know if i put his striking at a much better level than Brock's just yet. A good fight to look at is the other one you referenced though, with Randy vs. Brock. It is cliche, but in this case it is true that Brock has improved each fight. Considering he has only trained for 2 years, giving him 6 months of training can mean a lot. And the fact that he is paying all of this money to bring in top trainers has me thinking he is taking this seriously. If the rumors out there are true that they may headline UFC 119, Brock will have 2 months to get his stand-up looking better.

Fun facts:Cain wrestled at Arizona St with CB Dollaway and Ryan Bader. He finished with an 88-19 record in college, almost all of his losses were against guys ranked higher than him.

 

[No. 16]

Re-watched the Brock vs Lesnar fight and I have to say a Lesnar supporter if a re-match occurs I think Carwin can take Lesnar. It wasn't as evident to me live, but when you watch the replay you can clearly see that when Brock took down Carwin in the 2nd round it took practically no effort since Carwin crumpled to the floor.

When Carwin was juiced he stuffed Brock's shoot and did enough damage to hurt Brock. Going into this fight I had Brock 75% to win the fight and in a re-match with the proper adjustments I'd give Carwin a 55/45 edge if Lesnar doesn't show any improvement in his striking defense.