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UFC wagering: no longer stuck with the old thread title. The window to change it is here! (6 Viewers)

No. 16 said:
Re-watched the Brock vs Lesnar fight and I have to say a Lesnar supporter if a re-match occurs I think Carwin can take Lesnar. It wasn't as evident to me live, but when you watch the replay you can clearly see that when Brock took down Carwin in the 2nd round it took practically no effort since Carwin crumpled to the floor. When Carwin was juiced he stuffed Brock's shoot and did enough damage to hurt Brock. Going into this fight I had Brock 75% to win the fight and in a re-match with the proper adjustments I'd give Carwin a 55/45 edge if Lesnar doesn't show any improvement in his striking defense.
I'm not so sure. And I also don't think Lesnar was as hurt as he seemed when watching it live. No more than a dozen punches actually hit him in the face as most were blocked by his forearms. Plus, when he did get off the mat, he popped up like a middleweight. He had clearly recovered fully from the initial barrage from Carwin. Regardless, the big concerns for Lesnar were Carwin's power, Lesnar returning from a 50-pound weight loss due to illness, and Lesnar's ring rust. While that power is still there, the illness and the rust are no longer factors, and Lesnar's game is evolving rapidly. He's simply better than Carwin now and will continue to be better.
 
No. 16 said:
Re-watched the Brock vs Lesnar fight and I have to say a Lesnar supporter if a re-match occurs I think Carwin can take Lesnar. It wasn't as evident to me live, but when you watch the replay you can clearly see that when Brock took down Carwin in the 2nd round it took practically no effort since Carwin crumpled to the floor.

When Carwin was juiced he stuffed Brock's shoot and did enough damage to hurt Brock. Going into this fight I had Brock 75% to win the fight and in a re-match with the proper adjustments I'd give Carwin a 55/45 edge if Lesnar doesn't show any improvement in his striking defense.
This is the key. Why is it everyone jumps on Carwin in a rematch because he will adjust his strategy, while Brock is just as capable of making adjustments to counter?I'd still take Brock any day in a rematch. His stamina and wrestling is too far superior.

 
No. 16 said:
Re-watched the Brock vs Lesnar fight and I have to say a Lesnar supporter if a re-match occurs I think Carwin can take Lesnar. It wasn't as evident to me live, but when you watch the replay you can clearly see that when Brock took down Carwin in the 2nd round it took practically no effort since Carwin crumpled to the floor.

When Carwin was juiced he stuffed Brock's shoot and did enough damage to hurt Brock. Going into this fight I had Brock 75% to win the fight and in a re-match with the proper adjustments I'd give Carwin a 55/45 edge if Lesnar doesn't show any improvement in his striking defense.
This is the key. Why is it everyone jumps on Carwin in a rematch because he will adjust his strategy, while Brock is just as capable of making adjustments to counter?I'd still take Brock any day in a rematch. His stamina and wrestling is too far superior.
Yah let's see how Brock looks in his next fight or two before a re-match. Unless Fedor or Overeem comes to UFC Brock should face Lesnar in two fights.
 
No. 16 said:
BigJohn said:
No. 16 said:
Re-watched the Brock vs Lesnar fight and I have to say a Lesnar supporter if a re-match occurs I think Carwin can take Lesnar. It wasn't as evident to me live, but when you watch the replay you can clearly see that when Brock took down Carwin in the 2nd round it took practically no effort since Carwin crumpled to the floor.

When Carwin was juiced he stuffed Brock's shoot and did enough damage to hurt Brock. Going into this fight I had Brock 75% to win the fight and in a re-match with the proper adjustments I'd give Carwin a 55/45 edge if Lesnar doesn't show any improvement in his striking defense.
This is the key. Why is it everyone jumps on Carwin in a rematch because he will adjust his strategy, while Brock is just as capable of making adjustments to counter?I'd still take Brock any day in a rematch. His stamina and wrestling is too far superior.
Yah let's see how Brock looks in his next fight or two before a re-match. Unless Fedor or Overeem comes to UFC Brock should face Lesnar in two fights.
Now, that would be a fight... :shrug:
 
I like those big foam UFC fists fans had at the last PPV. :thumbdown:

These would be fun to scare your woman with during sexy time.

 
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Cliff Clavin said:
chet said:
Cliff Clavin said:
chet said:
Is Fedor ever going to get a shot? Will he be too old for it to matter?
A shot at what?
A shot at the "Undisputed Heavyweight Champion" of the world, Brock Lesnar. That's what they called him after his victory on Sat night.
That fight will never happen.
I'm not so sure, the chance of Fedor in the UFC is looking better than it did a month ago. I feel like Charlie Brown kicking a football with Lucy holding it even thinking it is possible, but recent news about M-1 has not been so good for them. I read an article today that M-1 would not insist on co-promoting if they were to negotiate again:http://middleeasy.com/index.php?option=com...4:organizations

, but honestly I don't think you can trust those guys for much of anything. One catch i could see is if Fedor beats Overeem I think Strikeforce has a champion clause that binds them to the organization for a bit. Seeing how Fedor is not cheap for Strikeforce, and he has shown to not be a ratings magnet, I do not think Strikeforce will try to hard to re-sign him. They could have him fight Werdum again, but then what? Strikeforce would be smart to not waste any more money with Fedor and try to continue building up their MW or light Heavyweight divisions that already have a good amount of talent. Take an approach like WEC and focus on only 2-3 weightclasses. It would depend if Fedor has intentions to retire or not, but I could see M-1 wanting Fedor in the UFC to gain some momentum that may have been loss by the Werdum loss. Who knows what those "Crazy Russians" are thinking, but Fedor's options are not as great as they were when he was a free agent before. A good chance is signing with Dream, but the rumors about how they pay their fighters can not be something that M-1 would be craving to get into. And I think Dana is just putting up a smoke screen at this point saying he isn't interested in Fedor anymore. of course they would love to bring him in, they brought in James Toney and Kimbo already.

 
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tend to agree with modogg. Fedors loss left the ruskie mafioso with much, much less bargaining power. Not saying it will happen, but I think it's more likely now than it has ever been.

 
I just put some money on Brock with I guess the line for Brock and Cain releasing today:

Brock -130

Cain - (even)

Here is hoping they do make this fight soon, like UFC 119 or somewhere around there. My acct. balance wasn't too happy with taking some funds and putting in for a long wait, but I have to think this line will not stay here for too long.

 
I just put some money on Brock with I guess the line for Brock and Cain releasing today:Brock -130Cain - (even)Here is hoping they do make this fight soon, like UFC 119 or somewhere around there. My acct. balance wasn't too happy with taking some funds and putting in for a long wait, but I have to think this line will not stay here for too long.
That's a great line for Brock.Tailing you Mo, I'm in large at -135 on Brock. Let's hope this fight happens before November!
 
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I just put some money on Brock with I guess the line for Brock and Cain releasing today:Brock -130Cain - (even)Here is hoping they do make this fight soon, like UFC 119 or somewhere around there. My acct. balance wasn't too happy with taking some funds and putting in for a long wait, but I have to think this line will not stay here for too long.
That's a great line for Brock.Tailing you Mo, I'm in large at -135 on Brock. Let's hope this fight happens before November!
Wow really? -130 only?Are they seeing something I'm missing?
 
I just put some money on Brock with I guess the line for Brock and Cain releasing today:Brock -130Cain - (even)Here is hoping they do make this fight soon, like UFC 119 or somewhere around there. My acct. balance wasn't too happy with taking some funds and putting in for a long wait, but I have to think this line will not stay here for too long.
That's a great line for Brock.Tailing you Mo, I'm in large at -135 on Brock. Let's hope this fight happens before November!
Wow really? -130 only?Are they seeing something I'm missing?
Yeah, I dunno, Cain had plenty of doubters before knocking out Nog. I was on Nog that night, but I think his brain may have been scrambled by years of abuse and finally Mir's knockout.Really think the line should and will be closer to -180 or more by fight night.
 
I just put some money on Brock with I guess the line for Brock and Cain releasing today:Brock -130Cain - (even)Here is hoping they do make this fight soon, like UFC 119 or somewhere around there. My acct. balance wasn't too happy with taking some funds and putting in for a long wait, but I have to think this line will not stay here for too long.
That's a great line for Brock.Tailing you Mo, I'm in large at -135 on Brock. Let's hope this fight happens before November!
Wow really? -130 only?Are they seeing something I'm missing?
Yeah, I dunno, Cain had plenty of doubters before knocking out Nog. I was on Nog that night, but I think his brain may have been scrambled by years of abuse and finally Mir's knockout.Really think the line should and will be closer to -180 or more by fight night.
I love me some Big Nog, but the dude is incredibly slow and simply can't hang with the big boys anymore. Cain's win over him doesn't really impress me at all. Dude looked as quick as Jose Aldo in comparison to Nog - not a surprise. The only worry was whether Cain would let himself get subbed when he took it to the ground. Turns out it didn't last long enough for that to be a concern.I would like to see Big Nog / Cro Cop though. That would be the sweetness.
 
Cliff Clavin said:
chet said:
Cliff Clavin said:
chet said:
Is Fedor ever going to get a shot? Will he be too old for it to matter?
A shot at what?
A shot at the "Undisputed Heavyweight Champion" of the world, Brock Lesnar. That's what they called him after his victory on Sat night.
That fight will never happen.
I'm not so sure, the chance of Fedor in the UFC is looking better than it did a month ago. I feel like Charlie Brown kicking a football with Lucy holding it even thinking it is possible, but recent news about M-1 has not been so good for them. I read an article today that M-1 would not insist on co-promoting if they were to negotiate again:http://middleeasy.com/index.php?option=com...4:organizations

, but honestly I don't think you can trust those guys for much of anything. One catch i could see is if Fedor beats Overeem I think Strikeforce has a champion clause that binds them to the organization for a bit. Seeing how Fedor is not cheap for Strikeforce, and he has shown to not be a ratings magnet, I do not think Strikeforce will try to hard to re-sign him. They could have him fight Werdum again, but then what? Strikeforce would be smart to not waste any more money with Fedor and try to continue building up their MW or light Heavyweight divisions that already have a good amount of talent. Take an approach like WEC and focus on only 2-3 weightclasses. It would depend if Fedor has intentions to retire or not, but I could see M-1 wanting Fedor in the UFC to gain some momentum that may have been loss by the Werdum loss. Who knows what those "Crazy Russians" are thinking, but Fedor's options are not as great as they were when he was a free agent before. A good chance is signing with Dream, but the rumors about how they pay their fighters can not be something that M-1 would be craving to get into. And I think Dana is just putting up a smoke screen at this point saying he isn't interested in Fedor anymore. of course they would love to bring him in, they brought in James Toney and Kimbo already.
He could very well join the UFC after his next fight. So at a minimum, we'd see his first UFC fight about February-ish. I doubt Dana would give him a title shot right away so he'd have to get through Carwin/Cain/dos Santos/Mir first. If he wins that fight (I don't think he would), at best we'd be looking at the middle of next summer. To many things would have to go right for him to fight Lesnar... of course is Lesnar loses to Cain, and Fedor joins, it could happen in early 2011 I guess.
 
Never going to happen.

Fedor would be taking a pay cut, not have control of who he fights, and be up against superior competition.

There just isn't much to gain for him by joining. I have no doubt that Dana would sign him in a heartbeat if he was interested though, I just don't see that interest ever happening, not at his age and when he already has his legacy in place.

 
I love me some Big Nog, but the dude is incredibly slow and simply can't hang with the big boys anymore. Cain's win over him doesn't really impress me at all. Dude looked as quick as Jose Aldo in comparison to Nog - not a surprise. The only worry was whether Cain would let himself get subbed when he took it to the ground. Turns out it didn't last long enough for that to be a concern.I would like to see Big Nog / Cro Cop though. That would be the sweetness.
rumor has it that UFC 119 will be Big Nog vs Mir II and the co-main event is Lil Nog-Bader.
 
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I don't think Fedor wants to go to the UFC. He simply doesn't care enough about his career or legacy to do so. Very sure that he views MMA as a job and that is all.

Vadim and the M-1 guys may try to get him to go to the UFC, but given what Dana White has said and done in the past, I fully understand Fedor not wanting to work for him.

 
I love me some Big Nog, but the dude is incredibly slow and simply can't hang with the big boys anymore. Cain's win over him doesn't really impress me at all. Dude looked as quick as Jose Aldo in comparison to Nog - not a surprise. The only worry was whether Cain would let himself get subbed when he took it to the ground. Turns out it didn't last long enough for that to be a concern.I would like to see Big Nog / Cro Cop though. That would be the sweetness.
rumor has it that UFC 119 will be Big Nog vs Mir II and the co-main event is Lil Nog-Bader.
That would be a sweet tag team match, but I have a feeling that night is going to be a bad night to be a Nog.
 
In non-UFC news, am I crazy is Kawajiri at -120 a great deal for Dream 15 on Saturday?
Yeah, I like him too. He hasn't lost via submission since 2005, and that's obviously the only path for Aoki to win. Of course, Aoki is better at submissions than anyone else Kawajiri has faced, but I think he'll have no problem following the Melendez blueprint and win this fight.
 
Here are my official Dream 15 bets:

(* are units bet for + or to win for -)

***** Amoussou -130

** Hata +160

* O'Brien +375

Is there anything I'm missing on this Amoussou/Nakamura fight? So many of these smaller Japanese fighters don't seem to be developing their game at all and have been fighting the same way the last 4 or 5 years. Amoussou is an animal and is going to take this fight right to Naka. He throws everything and the kitchen sink at his opponents and has every way in the book to beat Naka.

 
What is the line on Manhoef this weekend?
-550, a bit out of my range. I have plays on Kawajiri -115 - 1 unitKikuno +160 - .5 unityoung Sam Jung +1100 - .15 unit (i took this on pure principal. I think Jung has a chance to win this 5% of the time over Omigawa which is better than the odds)Ishida -200 - .65 unit
 
hooter311 said:
* O'Brien +375
I was going to let you know that O'Brien has had a pretty bad weight cut for this event so i was thinking he would have a rough fight, but apparently he wasn't able to make weight and Ricco Rodriguez is stepping in for him.
 
hooter311 said:
Here are my official Dream 15 bets:(* are units bet for + or to win for -)***** Amoussou -130** Hata +160* O'Brien +375Is there anything I'm missing on this Amoussou/Nakamura fight? So many of these smaller Japanese fighters don't seem to be developing their game at all and have been fighting the same way the last 4 or 5 years. Amoussou is an animal and is going to take this fight right to Naka. He throws everything and the kitchen sink at his opponents and has every way in the book to beat Naka.
Yes, the fact that it's in Japan and you can never, ever truly be sure whether or not the fight will or won't be a work. But, I agree with your assessment of the fight, and will likely be on Amoussou as well.I played Kikuno at +190 for a unit also.
 
I just put some money on Brock with I guess the line for Brock and Cain releasing today:Brock -130Cain - (even)Here is hoping they do make this fight soon, like UFC 119 or somewhere around there. My acct. balance wasn't too happy with taking some funds and putting in for a long wait, but I have to think this line will not stay here for too long.
That's a great line for Brock.Tailing you Mo, I'm in large at -135 on Brock. Let's hope this fight happens before November!
Well, fight is later than i hoped it would be, but they just confirmed it for UFC 121, October 23rd. It is before November, but I was hoping for one of the September cards. Pretty crazy to think the UFC has 5 shows over the next 2 months (UFC on Vs., 117, 118, 119, 120). Actually i am sure there is a fight night for the new TUF. At least the line is moving, Brock is -150, Cain is +120. i do think it will get around -200, so arbing out if needed will be an option, which is always nice to have
 
hooter311 said:
Here are my official Dream 15 bets:(* are units bet for + or to win for -)***** Amoussou -130** Hata +160* O'Brien +375Is there anything I'm missing on this Amoussou/Nakamura fight? So many of these smaller Japanese fighters don't seem to be developing their game at all and have been fighting the same way the last 4 or 5 years. Amoussou is an animal and is going to take this fight right to Naka. He throws everything and the kitchen sink at his opponents and has every way in the book to beat Naka.
Yes, the fact that it's in Japan and you can never, ever truly be sure whether or not the fight will or won't be a work. But, I agree with your assessment of the fight, and will likely be on Amoussou as well.I played Kikuno at +190 for a unit also.
hmm, with both of you guys on Amoussou, i may have to tail along. I like Nakamura and I think he can win a decision if he can avoid getting KO'd with-in the first few minutes of the fight, but you both sound like you like it so i may give it a shot
 
I just put some money on Brock with I guess the line for Brock and Cain releasing today:

Brock -130

Cain - (even)

Here is hoping they do make this fight soon, like UFC 119 or somewhere around there. My acct. balance wasn't too happy with taking some funds and putting in for a long wait, but I have to think this line will not stay here for too long.
That's a great line for Brock.Tailing you Mo, I'm in large at -135 on Brock. Let's hope this fight happens before November!
Well, fight is later than i hoped it would be, but they just confirmed it for UFC 121, October 23rd. It is before November, but I was hoping for one of the September cards. Pretty crazy to think the UFC has 5 shows over the next 2 months (UFC on Vs., 117, 118, 119, 120). Actually i am sure there is a fight night for the new TUF. At least the line is moving, Brock is -150, Cain is +120. i do think it will get around -200, so arbing out if needed will be an option, which is always nice to have
Seriously? Man, i haven't been paying enough attention. damn this working!!! :rolleyes:
 
hooter311 said:
Here are my official Dream 15 bets:(* are units bet for + or to win for -)***** Amoussou -130** Hata +160* O'Brien +375Is there anything I'm missing on this Amoussou/Nakamura fight? So many of these smaller Japanese fighters don't seem to be developing their game at all and have been fighting the same way the last 4 or 5 years. Amoussou is an animal and is going to take this fight right to Naka. He throws everything and the kitchen sink at his opponents and has every way in the book to beat Naka.
Yes, the fact that it's in Japan and you can never, ever truly be sure whether or not the fight will or won't be a work. But, I agree with your assessment of the fight, and will likely be on Amoussou as well.I played Kikuno at +190 for a unit also.
hmm, with both of you guys on Amoussou, i may have to tail along. I like Nakamura and I think he can win a decision if he can avoid getting KO'd with-in the first few minutes of the fight, but you both sound like you like it so i may give it a shot
:rolleyes:
 
Well, fight is later than i hoped it would be, but they just confirmed it for UFC 121, October 23rd. It is before November, but I was hoping for one of the September cards. Pretty crazy to think the UFC has 5 shows over the next 2 months (UFC on Vs., 117, 118, 119, 120). Actually i am sure there is a fight night for the new TUF.

At least the line is moving, Brock is -150, Cain is +120. i do think it will get around -200, so arbing out if needed will be an option, which is always nice to have
Seriously? Man, i haven't been paying enough attention. damn this working!!! :rolleyes:
Well, I was a little off, but here is what we have coming up:UFC on Versus 2: Jones vs. Matyushenko - Aug 01, 2010

UFC 117: Silva vs. Sonnen - Aug 07, 2010

Bellator Fighting Championships 24 - Aug 12, 2010

WEC 50: Cruz vs. Benavidez - Aug 18, 2010

Bellator Fighting Championships 25 - Aug 19, 2010

Strikeforce: Houston - Aug 21, 2010

UFC 118: Edgar vs. Penn II - Aug 28, 2010

"The Ultimate Fighter 12" debut - Sep 15, 2010

UFC Fight Night 22 - Sep 15, 2010

UFC 119 in Indianapolis - Sep 25, 2010

WEC 51 - Sep 30, 2010

WEC 52 - Oct 13, 2010

UFC 120 in London - Oct 16, 2010

UFC 121 in Anaheim - Oct 23, 2010

there are others like Strikeforce and Dream, but the list was getting long

 
Shame that JOB/Mousasi was called off. Absolutely loved Irish Jake at those odds.

Edit: Wait, never mind. Apparently the fight is back on. Thanks for the usual head-fake, DREAM.

 
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Also, September 30th can't come soon enough. I could watch Aldo fight all day, and it's a shame it doesn't happen more often.

 
Shame that JOB/Mousasi was called off. Absolutely loved Irish Jake at those odds.Edit: Wait, never mind. Apparently the fight is back on. Thanks for the usual head-fake, DREAM.
:rolleyes: How the heck is that. i saw somehere that Jake showed up at 226 to the weigh-ins. Nothing like coming 21 pounds overweight. what a strange deal, but i may put $20 on O'Brien now that he is +450
 
I love me some Big Nog, but the dude is incredibly slow and simply can't hang with the big boys anymore. Cain's win over him doesn't really impress me at all. Dude looked as quick as Jose Aldo in comparison to Nog - not a surprise. The only worry was whether Cain would let himself get subbed when he took it to the ground. Turns out it didn't last long enough for that to be a concern.I would like to see Big Nog / Cro Cop though. That would be the sweetness.
rumor has it that UFC 119 will be Big Nog vs Mir II and the co-main event is Lil Nog-Bader.
Unless the rest of the fights on that card absolutely rock, its not that interesting a card for me.
 
Well, fight is later than i hoped it would be, but they just confirmed it for UFC 121, October 23rd. It is before November, but I was hoping for one of the September cards. Pretty crazy to think the UFC has 5 shows over the next 2 months (UFC on Vs., 117, 118, 119, 120). Actually i am sure there is a fight night for the new TUF.

At least the line is moving, Brock is -150, Cain is +120. i do think it will get around -200, so arbing out if needed will be an option, which is always nice to have
Seriously? Man, i haven't been paying enough attention. damn this working!!! :hifive:
Well, I was a little off, but here is what we have coming up:UFC on Versus 2: Jones vs. Matyushenko - Aug 01, 2010

UFC 117: Silva vs. Sonnen - Aug 07, 2010

Bellator Fighting Championships 24 - Aug 12, 2010

WEC 50: Cruz vs. Benavidez - Aug 18, 2010

Bellator Fighting Championships 25 - Aug 19, 2010

Strikeforce: Houston - Aug 21, 2010

UFC 118: Edgar vs. Penn II - Aug 28, 2010

"The Ultimate Fighter 12" debut - Sep 15, 2010

UFC Fight Night 22 - Sep 15, 2010

UFC 119 in Indianapolis - Sep 25, 2010

WEC 51 - Sep 30, 2010

WEC 52 - Oct 13, 2010

UFC 120 in London - Oct 16, 2010

UFC 121 in Anaheim - Oct 23, 2010

there are others like Strikeforce and Dream, but the list was getting long
Damn i want a couple tickets to this!! Right down the freeway and it's Brock vs Cain?? I'm searching and can't find them avail yet!!

 
Damn i want a couple tickets to this!! Right down the freeway and it's Brock vs Cain?? I'm searching and can't find them avail yet!!
I recommend if you are thinking about it to join the ufc fightclub. It is like $70 or something, but you get priority sale of tickets, and tickets these days sell out fast because the scalpers are all over them. The cool thing about it though is you also get to go to a Q&A session and get good seat for the weigh-ins. I saw a Q&A with BJ Penn which was good, and one with Dana where the guy will answer whatever question you want. I asked him about the idea of having a weekly show like Tuesday Fight Nights used to be and he said they don't have enough fighters for that right now. That was when the UFC-WEC merger rumors began heating up too, but i guess that all died out. Anyway, good luck with those tickets, i think the only other rumored fight right now is Sam Stout-Paul Taylor, but that main event will be a great fight by itself.
 
Also, September 30th can't come soon enough. I could watch Aldo fight all day, and it's a shame it doesn't happen more often.
:unsure: WEC is solid organization... love watching Aldo and Ben Henderson.
I just can't believe the cards are still free on Vs. I still can't believe how more attn. does not come to these cards, but this one is starting to look good:•Champ Joe Aldo vs. Manny Gamburyan (for featherweight title)*•Miguel Torres vs. Charlie Valencia*•Leonard Garcia vs. Mark Hominick*•Chan Sung Jung vs. George Roop*
 
Shame that JOB/Mousasi was called off. Absolutely loved Irish Jake at those odds.Edit: Wait, never mind. Apparently the fight is back on. Thanks for the usual head-fake, DREAM.
Jake looked like he wanted to be anywhere else but in that ring, Japanese MMA at it's best :rolleyes:
 

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