UFC wagering: no longer stuck with the old thread title. The window to change it is here! (11 Viewers)

[modogg]

Brock Lesnar vs Cain VelasquezAnyone taking Cain, seen him at +150

i still got a lot on Brock, but i expect this line to keep moving and if Cain gets near +180 or +200 he will have some value.

 

[Cliff Clavin]

So who is next for jones? Not sure of the up coming lhw fights. Someone like forest? Loser of rampage and lyoto?

 

[modogg]

So who is next for jones? Not sure of the up coming lhw fights. Someone like forest? Loser of rampage and lyoto?

I caught MMA live this week and Dana said that Jones would take on a top 8 guy. Not sure who the top 8 are, but he is beginning to move into GSP and Silva territory for me with gambling. His line was absolutely terrible for this fight, and we haven't seen him get hit with a big shot yet or have to work fro his back too much, but I don't know who has the stuff to beat him anytime soon.edit: i realize i didn't answer. Forrest is a good call. the winner of Tito - Hammil. it's tough for the UFC because you set up whoever fights him for a loss. What I would love to see is Anderson Silva goof off a bit agsint Chael and Dana get angry and put him against Jon Jones next, That fight will be amazing, but it is certainly years away. The biggest thing is you can't put somebody like Rampage or Lilttle Nog against him because he will put those guys down the rankings a bit. It is a tough situation for Joe Silva.

 

[Abrantes]

Man. If there was a "MMA fighters that make you go 'wow'" topic like the football equivalent in the Shark Pool, Jones would have to be one of my top choices (along with Aldo, and Anderson when he feels like fighting). Ridiculous to think that he's still 23.

 

[sheerterror]

So who is next for jones? Not sure of the up coming lhw fights. Someone like forest? Loser of rampage and lyoto?

I don't think they can give him the loser of Machida-Rampage, as the loser of that fight will be looking at a potential 0-3 spell. Jones probably a small favorite or dog to Machida, my guess would be around -300ish against Rampage.Is the winner of Machida-Rampage supposed to be getting a title shot after Evans? Assuming a Machida win and a rematch with Shogun, how about Jones vs. the winner of Bader-Nogueira for a title shot?

 

[slayer666]

Man. If there was a "MMA fighters that make you go 'wow'" topic like the football equivalent in the Shark Pool, Jones would have to be one of my top choices (along with Aldo, and Anderson when he feels like fighting). Ridiculous to think that he's still 23.

No doubt, "Bones" is a BMF.

 

[Sebowski]

Just got back from the fights (and strip club). Great seats (for both). Hell of a night. I've been to local shows, WEC, Affliction, Strikeforce. This was my first UFC. It was awesome.

I'd give Jones Thiago Silva or the winner of Lil Nog-Bader.

 

[Cliff Clavin]

I can't see the ufc wanting to put on a jones / bader fight. Why knock one of their up and coming fighters down a notch?

 

[Abrantes]

I can't see the ufc wanting to put on a jones / bader fight. Why knock one of their up and coming fighters down a notch?

Yeah, they're probably the two hottest light heavyweight prospects in MMA right now. Hell, two of the best prospects in any division, for that matter. Can't see that fight happening this soon, but it would sure be interesting. Both are incredible wrestlers and pack huge power in their shots. Both have past cardio issues, though Jones' fights haven't lasted enough recently to see if he's improved in that area. Bader's striking and general game seems tighter and more technically sound, but Jones makes up for it with incredible power and explosiveness, as well as an unreal, cartoon-character-like reach advantage.Curious to see if (when) Jones moves up to heavyweight, 'cause he's growing quickly, which makes sense at that age, and he has the frame to pack on a lot more weight.Edit: As for his next challenger, I suppose Forrest or Thiago Silva would make sense, but stylistically, I don't think either one would have more than a puncher's chance.

 

[Maik Jeaunz]

for Bones, what about Rich Franklin? not sure Rich would go for a fight like that, considering he's only fought once in almost a year, and has fought mostly at middleweight. but it would be a great test for the kid.

otherwise, I think either Forrest or Thiago are a lock...unless they want to give Vitor Belfort a big test in his first fight back from shoulder surgery.

 

[Abrantes]

for Bones, what about Rich Franklin? not sure Rich would go for a fight like that, considering he's only fought once in almost a year, and has fought mostly at middleweight. but it would be a great test for the kid. otherwise, I think either Forrest or Thiago are a lock...unless they want to give Vitor Belfort a big test in his first fight back from shoulder surgery.

Yeah, Franklin was the other name I thought of later. For Jones, that could be a better test than either Forrest or Thiago, and maybe a bigger draw too. It would be a matter of waiting for Franklin to heal up, in that case.

 

[Cliff Clavin]

for Bones, what about Rich Franklin? not sure Rich would go for a fight like that, considering he's only fought once in almost a year, and has fought mostly at middleweight. but it would be a great test for the kid. otherwise, I think either Forrest or Thiago are a lock...unless they want to give Vitor Belfort a big test in his first fight back from shoulder surgery.

Yeah, Franklin was the other name I thought of later. For Jones, that could be a better test than either Forrest or Thiago, and maybe a bigger draw too. It would be a matter of waiting for Franklin to heal up, in that case.

I can see Franklin being a better test than Forrest but Thiago >>> Franklin imo. I'd actually really like to see a Franklin v Forrest.

 

[raisydaisy]

Forrest would be a terrible fight for Jones. The kid needs a challenge. Forrest wouldn't last a minute, it would be worse than when he fought Silva.

 

[Cliff Clavin]

Does sportsbook not allow parlays for MMA?

 

[hooter311]

Does sportsbook not allow parlays for MMA?

Nope.

 

[Abrantes]

for Bones, what about Rich Franklin? not sure Rich would go for a fight like that, considering he's only fought once in almost a year, and has fought mostly at middleweight. but it would be a great test for the kid. otherwise, I think either Forrest or Thiago are a lock...unless they want to give Vitor Belfort a big test in his first fight back from shoulder surgery.

Yeah, Franklin was the other name I thought of later. For Jones, that could be a better test than either Forrest or Thiago, and maybe a bigger draw too. It would be a matter of waiting for Franklin to heal up, in that case.

I can see Franklin being a better test than Forrest but Thiago >>> Franklin imo. I'd actually really like to see a Franklin v Forrest.

Eh. Probably just a difference of opinion regarding Thiago's skills. Although Thiago certainly packs more power in his punches than Forrest, and maybe more than Franklin, I actually have it the other way around. Much as I love the mean-mugging Brazilian, his striking is still undisciplined, his chin is very questionable and his takedown defense is sorely lacking. He doesn't seem to have much in the way of strategy or solid corner men either, if his last fights are any measure. He'd last about as long as Forrest against Jones, I think. Franklin is more experienced and well-rounded, and just seems like his style matches up better with Jones.

 

[theglorydays]

So who is next for jones? Not sure of the up coming lhw fights. Someone like forest? Loser of rampage and lyoto?

I caught MMA live this week and Dana said that Jones would take on a top 8 guy. Not sure who the top 8 are, but he is beginning to move into GSP and Silva territory for me with gambling. His line was absolutely terrible for this fight, and we haven't seen him get hit with a big shot yet or have to work fro his back too much, but I don't know who has the stuff to beat him anytime soon.edit: i realize i didn't answer. Forrest is a good call. the winner of Tito - Hammil. it's tough for the UFC because you set up whoever fights him for a loss. What I would love to see is Anderson Silva goof off a bit agsint Chael and Dana get angry and put him against Jon Jones next, That fight will be amazing, but it is certainly years away. The biggest thing is you can't put somebody like Rampage or Lilttle Nog against him because he will put those guys down the rankings a bit. It is a tough situation for Joe Silva.

I'm on the Jones war wagon full force. The guy is special. Sherdog is laughable though, so many people refuse to entertain the possiblilty that Jones would walk right through almost every guy at 205. Outside of Shogun, Machida, Evans, King Mo and rampage, i think he dispatchs of everyone in under 2 rounds at 205.205 is a slightly overated division IMO. I mean Forrest Griffin ranked in the top 5, really? An average athlete, jack of all trades, master of none, tough guy with heart but doesn't have the physical gifts to compete with a guy like Jones. I really want to see Jones brutalize him.

 

[modogg]

Just got back from the fights (and strip club). Great seats (for both). Hell of a night. I've been to local shows, WEC, Affliction, Strikeforce. This was my first UFC. It was awesome. I'd give Jones Thiago Silva or the winner of Lil Nog-Bader.

How was the show? It sounded like the crowd was real quick to start booing the Howard-Ellenberger fight which was surprising. I know all crowds have their good and bad, but this one seemed to be a little impatient. Also wonderingt how the undercard was. I saw Stann-Massenzio won fight of the night, how was it? Also wondering what happened with James Irvin. My dopey ### bet on Irvin thinking he would have a very good showing this time, not sure why I thought that looking back. i never really liked the guy

 

[No. 16]

That was a very good card last night. I have to agree the SD fans we quick to boo and it really annoyed me.

I agree than Jones and Aldo are some of the most exciting fighters out there.

 

[kutta]

Jones vs. Anderson Silva would be an amazing fight to see, but let's see Jones take on one of the top guys at 205 first. I agree he would pummel Forrest.

And Silva is going to absolutely kill Sonnen. Their skill levels are not even close. Silva is just so much better than everyone else, and I think he is going to completely demolish Sonnen next week.

 

[Sebowski]

Just got back from the fights (and strip club). Great seats (for both). Hell of a night. I've been to local shows, WEC, Affliction, Strikeforce. This was my first UFC. It was awesome. I'd give Jones Thiago Silva or the winner of Lil Nog-Bader.

How was the show? It sounded like the crowd was real quick to start booing the Howard-Ellenberger fight which was surprising. I know all crowds have their good and bad, but this one seemed to be a little impatient. Also wonderingt how the undercard was. I saw Stann-Massenzio won fight of the night, how was it? Also wondering what happened with James Irvin. My dopey ### bet on Irvin thinking he would have a very good showing this time, not sure why I thought that looking back. i never really liked the guy

I actually almost got in a fight with a guy who was booing. The crowd was great until the main card only "fans" got there. The guy I got into it with got there 2-3 fights into the main card and started booing right away. Real jackass and I let him know it. I was pretty drunk so don't remember the word-for-word, but he got pretty pissed at me. At one point after I got him mad he turned around and tried saying something to me and I said something like "way to spend $150, get here 3/4 of the way through and then turn around and look me. You must be really smart, guy". His GF was begging me to leave him alone(save me from a beating, or him from further embarrassment ) and tried to control him. Needless to say, the booing pissed me off too. Especially considering it really was a good crowd for the prelims. Stann was impressive. He kept getting taken down, but he would manage to sweep or get up every time. Fought out of 2 guillotines. The crowd was really behind him. Massenzio had nothing but takedowns in his arsenal. Irvin got KTFO. Nothing else to say really.

 

[modogg]

I actually almost got in a fight with a guy who was booing. The crowd was great until the main card only "fans" got there. The guy I got into it with got there 2-3 fights into the main card and started booing right away. Real jackass and I let him know it. I was pretty drunk so don't remember the word-for-word, but he got pretty pissed at me. At one point after I got him mad he turned around and tried saying something to me and I said something like "way to spend $150, get here 3/4 of the way through and then turn around and look me. You must be really smart, guy". His GF was begging me to leave him alone(save me from a beating, or him from further embarrassment ) and tried to control him. Needless to say, the booing pissed me off too. Especially considering it really was a good crowd for the prelims.

That is kind of funny. I hear what you are saying too, it can really blow spending some good money to watch a show, then some dope shows up and acts like that. I have to think the UFC is not just a fad and will be around for awhile. I think the crowds have gotten better, and it is pretty impressive how some parts of the country are signifcantly better crowds then others. I remember being at UFC 78, which may have been one of the most boring PPV's in some time, and even then the crowd didn't really boo. It was in Newark, NJ, and it was impressive the response. personally, i was glad the San Diego crowd pulled out the "U.S.A." chant for the Gomi fight, and almost for the Munoz-Okami fight. I have to say that is one of the funniest chants, and it always cracks me up when the UFC crowd pulls that out. It seems to be such a dopey thing to do in MMA, especially when you are going nuts rooting for Tyson Griffin. I also think your story is probably similar to most shows these days. I know the 2 cards i have been to [the Philadelphia (101) and Newark (78) shows] you could start to see a little difference. The Newark card at 78 was packed for the 1st prelim fight, and the crowd was a good crowd. The Philly show was reall good as well, and seemed to be really packed for the prelims, but you could see more of the goofy UFC fans at the Philly show at 101 then the Newark show at 78. I am guessing the Newark show still occurred early enough before it became as trendy and popular as it is today. Not sure if it would be the same if a PPV were there todayBut for a complete tangent, i do wonder where these shows will go in the future. I have heard people suggest that MMA may trend similar to poker has, but who knows. I know I will have to figure something out if they keep offerring 2 PPV's a month because it is tough to justify paying $110 a month for them. This mostly applies to the UFC model since discussing MMA as a whole is a another conversation, but the UFC PPV buys do not seem to be too effected at this point. I just know from people i talk with that their interest in buying a PPV has gone from buying every PPV to maybe buying 5 a year. Just a thought, but i would love to talk with the UFC brass to hear what they have to think. I still think a UFC-WEC merger could produce a weekly show that if it brought in good enough money would be a great solution. Not sure the TV network to give the UFC this deal, but I am not sure if the UFC can maintain this level 5 years from now. Anyway, I am surprised at the dismissal of Forrest in here. I know he hasn't shown a ton of growth in his game, and his skill set dfoes not seem to match his popularity, but his last 5 fights he has lost to Anderson Silva and Rashad, but he has beaten Rampage, Tito, and Shogun. He is a tough one to figure out what he will bring to a fight, but he is an easy one to under-estimate and we haven't seen Jones get hit hard or no his back yet. That said I would bet Jones in that fight. I do think the best fight would be what a few of you mentioned with Franklin as long as Franklin can go in the next few months. I do also love how well James Toney markets himself, and has got himself in the conversation to fight Jon Jones at some point.

 

[modogg]

Not really any good PPVs on the horizon, no?

UFC 117 may not have the star power that a lot of PPVs have but all the matchups look really good on paper. I'm buying this one.

Rumor has it that UFC 120 and 122 (not sure which fights are booked for those events) will be aired for free on Spike, so that should help with the PPV purchases. Figure if these 2 are free, plus there is a fight night in September to go with the Ultimate Fighter start, there should be plenty of enjoyable UFC coming up (a free card automatically makes a card a good card). Plus the WEC has a PPV worthy show coming up (maybe 2, i forget), so we should be good to go

 

[Abrantes]

Early predictions for UFC 117:

Anderson Silva

Jon Fitch

Clay Guida

Ricardo Almeida

Junior dos Santos

Dustin Hazelett

Phil Davis

Tim Boetsch

Johny Hendricks

Stefan Struve

Ben Saunders

That makes it Brazil 3-2 over the US in the main card. I could easily see Pitbull getting his revenge on Fitch as well, since I think he's improved far more than Fitch since their previous fight, but the 13 months away from the Octagon scare me off.

 

[Cliff Clavin]

Early predictions for UFC 117:Anderson SilvaJon FitchClay GuidaRicardo AlmeidaJunior dos SantosDustin HazelettPhil DavisTim BoetschJohny HendricksStefan StruveBen SaundersThat makes it Brazil 3-2 over the US in the main card. I could easily see Pitbull getting his revenge on Fitch as well, since I think he's improved far more than Fitch since their previous fight, but the 13 months away from the Octagon scare me off.

I agree with them all except I think dos Anjos will beat Guida.

 

[peaces]

I actually almost got in a fight with a guy who was booing. The crowd was great until the main card only "fans" got there. The guy I got into it with got there 2-3 fights into the main card and started booing right away. Real jackass and I let him know it. I was pretty drunk so don't remember the word-for-word, but he got pretty pissed at me. At one point after I got him mad he turned around and tried saying something to me and I said something like "way to spend $150, get here 3/4 of the way through and then turn around and look me. You must be really smart, guy". His GF was begging me to leave him alone(save me from a beating, or him from further embarrassment ) and tried to control him. Needless to say, the booing pissed me off too. Especially considering it really was a good crowd for the prelims.

That is kind of funny. I hear what you are saying too, it can really blow spending some good money to watch a show, then some dope shows up and acts like that. I have to think the UFC is not just a fad and will be around for awhile. I think the crowds have gotten better, and it is pretty impressive how some parts of the country are signifcantly better crowds then others. I remember being at UFC 78, which may have been one of the most boring PPV's in some time, and even then the crowd didn't really boo. It was in Newark, NJ, and it was impressive the response. personally, i was glad the San Diego crowd pulled out the "U.S.A." chant for the Gomi fight, and almost for the Munoz-Okami fight. I have to say that is one of the funniest chants, and it always cracks me up when the UFC crowd pulls that out. It seems to be such a dopey thing to do in MMA, especially when you are going nuts rooting for Tyson Griffin. I also think your story is probably similar to most shows these days. I know the 2 cards i have been to [the Philadelphia (101) and Newark (78) shows] you could start to see a little difference. The Newark card at 78 was packed for the 1st prelim fight, and the crowd was a good crowd. The Philly show was reall good as well, and seemed to be really packed for the prelims, but you could see more of the goofy UFC fans at the Philly show at 101 then the Newark show at 78. I am guessing the Newark show still occurred early enough before it became as trendy and popular as it is today. Not sure if it would be the same if a PPV were there todayBut for a complete tangent, i do wonder where these shows will go in the future. I have heard people suggest that MMA may trend similar to poker has, but who knows. I know I will have to figure something out if they keep offerring 2 PPV's a month because it is tough to justify paying $110 a month for them. This mostly applies to the UFC model since discussing MMA as a whole is a another conversation, but the UFC PPV buys do not seem to be too effected at this point. I just know from people i talk with that their interest in buying a PPV has gone from buying every PPV to maybe buying 5 a year. Just a thought, but i would love to talk with the UFC brass to hear what they have to think. I still think a UFC-WEC merger could produce a weekly show that if it brought in good enough money would be a great solution. Not sure the TV network to give the UFC this deal, but I am not sure if the UFC can maintain this level 5 years from now. Anyway, I am surprised at the dismissal of Forrest in here. I know he hasn't shown a ton of growth in his game, and his skill set dfoes not seem to match his popularity, but his last 5 fights he has lost to Anderson Silva and Rashad, but he has beaten Rampage, Tito, and Shogun. He is a tough one to figure out what he will bring to a fight, but he is an easy one to under-estimate and we haven't seen Jones get hit hard or no his back yet. That said I would bet Jones in that fight. I do think the best fight would be what a few of you mentioned with Franklin as long as Franklin can go in the next few months. I do also love how well James Toney markets himself, and has got himself in the conversation to fight Jon Jones at some point.

There's a few sites I've used to watch the last few UFC PPV for free, live. Quality isn't as good as on TV of course, but I have no problem watching the replay a few months down the road if it's worth it and saving my cash the night of the fight. I'm not a HUGE MMA fan but I do dig it enough to watch for free. Won't be able to watch the one this weekend on the internet as it's Mrs. peaces 40th birthday party/night out on Saturday. I'm sure I'll be able to track it down on the internet after the fact for free though.

 

[Clayton Gray]

Early predictions for UFC 117:Anderson SilvaJon FitchClay GuidaRicardo AlmeidaJunior dos SantosDustin HazelettPhil DavisTim BoetschJohny HendricksStefan StruveBen SaundersThat makes it Brazil 3-2 over the US in the main card. I could easily see Pitbull getting his revenge on Fitch as well, since I think he's improved far more than Fitch since their previous fight, but the 13 months away from the Octagon scare me off.

I agree with them all except I think dos Anjos will beat Guida.

Sad to say, but I agree. Sure hope Guida can pull it out though.

 

[Maik Jeaunz]

the Junior dos Santos vs. Roy Nelson fight is the one that's giving me the most trouble. I really like dos Santos, and hope he gets a shot to beat up Lesnar, but Dana White's disdain for Roy Nelson really makes me want to root for him. anything that sticks it to Dana is great in my book.

 

[AhrnCityPahnder]

Full on board the Great Fat Hope Nelson bandwagon. I am slightly expecting JDS to win this but wouldn't surprise me one bit to see Nelson get a sub or a GnP stoppage.

 

[Cliff Clavin]

Just posted a thread about this but I'll add it here too. Roger Huerta kicked the hell out of some guy for hitting a chick.

 

[BigJilm]

Just bet my entire Sportsbook account on Silva -500. *burp* why not.

 

[Clayton Gray]

Just bet my entire Sportsbook account on Silva -500. *burp* why not.

Seems safe.glll peas

 

[hooter311]

Anyone have any additional thoughts on Hughes vs Almeida?

Almeida is still -155 at sportsbook, I'm failing to see why it's not closer to -200 or greater. I'm heavily considering making this a huge play.

Hughes is a legend, but he's a fighter from a different era than what UFC has become. Almeida has looked like a monster at his lowered weight. Hughes didn't impress me at all in his last fight and Almedia was in the other corner watching the whole thing. Add in the revenge factor from a loss to Hughes at the beginning of the decade, and the fight goes even more in Almeida's favor. I think Almeida has quite a bit more power than what people are giving him credit for, Hughes's wrestling advantage goes out on the window in Almeida can get him in position when they go to the ground. Hughes also seems to think he has a standing advantage, I just don't see it although Almeida has never knocked anyone out.

 

[Abrantes]

Anyone have any additional thoughts on Hughes vs Almeida?Almeida is still -155 at sportsbook, I'm failing to see why it's not closer to -200 or greater. I'm heavily considering making this a huge play.Hughes is a legend, but he's a fighter from a different era than what UFC has become. Almeida has looked like a monster at his lowered weight. Hughes didn't impress me at all in his last fight and Almedia was in the other corner watching the whole thing. Add in the revenge factor from a loss to Hughes at the beginning of the decade, and the fight goes even more in Almeida's favor. I think Almeida has quite a bit more power than what people are giving him credit for, Hughes's wrestling advantage goes out on the window in Almeida can get him in position when they go to the ground. Hughes also seems to think he has a standing advantage, I just don't see it although Almeida has never knocked anyone out.

Think I talked about the fight in a few other places, but maybe not here. Love this fight for Almeida, for sure. I was hoping he'd be the underdog in the books, but ah well. Almeida looked excellent in his welterweight debut against Matt Brown, though the first round could've been faster paced. Landed good strikes, controlled the fight in the clinch and submitted his opponent almost immediately when he got a good position on the ground. As for Hughes, despite winning his last two fights, he looked absolutely lethargic, and I actually thought he lost the Serra fight. He's proven everything there is to prove in the sport a while ago, and I'm not sure what motivates him right now. Haven't seen the sheer will and competitive fire Hughes had in a good while, and if he doesn't come in much sharper, Almeida is gonna smoke him. Although neither man has made a career out of their striking, Cachorrão seems far sharper and more confident in his shots, and his pure grappling skills are phenomenal. Won't be surprised if Almeida is the one to take Hughes down, as a matter of fact.Curious to see if Almeida's cardio looks better too, now that he's back in fight rhythm and doesn't have to muscle around bigger middleweights.

 

[Abrantes]

I agree with them all except I think dos Anjos will beat Guida.

Yeah, I'm not ruling out the possibility, but I'll be happy either way. Submission defense isn't Guida's strong suit, though. He tries to simply outwork his opponents instead of defending correctly, and manages to get by because he's also great at scrambling out from bad spots. A good jiu-jitsu guy can definitely capitalize on that, but my gut feeling is still a Guida win. He was smart enough to avoid the ground against Marcus Aurélio, for instance, so he may well try to keep it standing here if he feels threatened on the ground. Should be an awesome fight, regardless.

 

[Cliff Clavin]

I agree with them all except I think dos Anjos will beat Guida.

Yeah, I'm not ruling out the possibility, but I'll be happy either way. Submission defense isn't Guida's strong suit, though. He tries to simply outwork his opponents instead of defending correctly, and manages to get by because he's also great at scrambling out from bad spots. A good jiu-jitsu guy can definitely capitalize on that, but my gut feeling is still a Guida win. He was smart enough to avoid the ground against Marcus Aurélio, for instance, so he may well try to keep it standing here if he feels threatened on the ground. Should be an awesome fight, regardless.

That is why I think he'll lose. The best part of Guida's game is grinding it out from top position. Any time your gameplan is to avoid your strongest asset, you're in trouble.In other shocking news, Alves is having trouble making weight.

 

[modogg]

I agree with them all except I think dos Anjos will beat Guida.

Yeah, I'm not ruling out the possibility, but I'll be happy either way. Submission defense isn't Guida's strong suit, though. He tries to simply outwork his opponents instead of defending correctly, and manages to get by because he's also great at scrambling out from bad spots. A good jiu-jitsu guy can definitely capitalize on that, but my gut feeling is still a Guida win. He was smart enough to avoid the ground against Marcus Aurélio, for instance, so he may well try to keep it standing here if he feels threatened on the ground. Should be an awesome fight, regardless.

That is why I think he'll lose. The best part of Guida's game is grinding it out from top position. Any time your gameplan is to avoid your strongest asset, you're in trouble.In other shocking news, Alves is having trouble making weight.

Yeah, that one has me pissed. Friggin' Thiago better be fine for this fight. as for Almeida - Hughes, I am real high on Almeida here too. of course i thought Serra would beat Huighes as well, so i won't make it a huge play, but certainly a play. Thinking about Hughes history, he hasn't lost to too many guys out of the top of the divisions, so it is something to keep in mind. I would love to see Hughes againt a guy like Fitch

 

[hooter311]

Anyone have any additional thoughts on Hughes vs Almeida?Almeida is still -155 at sportsbook, I'm failing to see why it's not closer to -200 or greater. I'm heavily considering making this a huge play.Hughes is a legend, but he's a fighter from a different era than what UFC has become. Almeida has looked like a monster at his lowered weight. Hughes didn't impress me at all in his last fight and Almedia was in the other corner watching the whole thing. Add in the revenge factor from a loss to Hughes at the beginning of the decade, and the fight goes even more in Almeida's favor. I think Almeida has quite a bit more power than what people are giving him credit for, Hughes's wrestling advantage goes out on the window in Almeida can get him in position when they go to the ground. Hughes also seems to think he has a standing advantage, I just don't see it although Almeida has never knocked anyone out.

Think I talked about the fight in a few other places, but maybe not here. Love this fight for Almeida, for sure. I was hoping he'd be the underdog in the books, but ah well. Almeida looked excellent in his welterweight debut against Matt Brown, though the first round could've been faster paced. Landed good strikes, controlled the fight in the clinch and submitted his opponent almost immediately when he got a good position on the ground. As for Hughes, despite winning his last two fights, he looked absolutely lethargic, and I actually thought he lost the Serra fight. He's proven everything there is to prove in the sport a while ago, and I'm not sure what motivates him right now. Haven't seen the sheer will and competitive fire Hughes had in a good while, and if he doesn't come in much sharper, Almeida is gonna smoke him. Although neither man has made a career out of their striking, Cachorrão seems far sharper and more confident in his shots, and his pure grappling skills are phenomenal. Won't be surprised if Almeida is the one to take Hughes down, as a matter of fact.Curious to see if Almeida's cardio looks better too, now that he's back in fight rhythm and doesn't have to muscle around bigger middleweights.

and I found out my sportsbook.com account has already been cut to $250 MMA limits. They had no problem taking my wager for over a grand on Carwin last PPV.

 

[modogg]

Anyone have any additional thoughts on Hughes vs Almeida?Almeida is still -155 at sportsbook, I'm failing to see why it's not closer to -200 or greater. I'm heavily considering making this a huge play.Hughes is a legend, but he's a fighter from a different era than what UFC has become. Almeida has looked like a monster at his lowered weight. Hughes didn't impress me at all in his last fight and Almedia was in the other corner watching the whole thing. Add in the revenge factor from a loss to Hughes at the beginning of the decade, and the fight goes even more in Almeida's favor. I think Almeida has quite a bit more power than what people are giving him credit for, Hughes's wrestling advantage goes out on the window in Almeida can get him in position when they go to the ground. Hughes also seems to think he has a standing advantage, I just don't see it although Almeida has never knocked anyone out.

Think I talked about the fight in a few other places, but maybe not here. Love this fight for Almeida, for sure. I was hoping he'd be the underdog in the books, but ah well. Almeida looked excellent in his welterweight debut against Matt Brown, though the first round could've been faster paced. Landed good strikes, controlled the fight in the clinch and submitted his opponent almost immediately when he got a good position on the ground. As for Hughes, despite winning his last two fights, he looked absolutely lethargic, and I actually thought he lost the Serra fight. He's proven everything there is to prove in the sport a while ago, and I'm not sure what motivates him right now. Haven't seen the sheer will and competitive fire Hughes had in a good while, and if he doesn't come in much sharper, Almeida is gonna smoke him. Although neither man has made a career out of their striking, Cachorrão seems far sharper and more confident in his shots, and his pure grappling skills are phenomenal. Won't be surprised if Almeida is the one to take Hughes down, as a matter of fact.Curious to see if Almeida's cardio looks better too, now that he's back in fight rhythm and doesn't have to muscle around bigger middleweights.

and I found out my sportsbook.com account has already been cut to $250 MMA limits. They had no problem taking my wager for over a grand on Carwin last PPV.

wow, those shady bastards. The only reason i haven't pulled all out of sportsbook is because i haven't had a problem yet. those guys are getting terrible. I am about to open an account at a new book in prep for NFL, and i know 5dimes is good with MMA bets, so i make join with them

 

[hooter311]

wow, those shady bastards. The only reason i haven't pulled all out of sportsbook is because i haven't had a problem yet. those guys are getting terrible. I am about to open an account at a new book in prep for NFL, and i know 5dimes is good with MMA bets, so i make join with them

I've literally only had the account 60 days and am already down at least 1500, you'd at least think they would give me a chance to chase my losses.I haven't done any prop betting, only MMA and Baseball Totals and sides. World Cup action when it was available.

 

[Cliff Clavin]

I think Sonnen finally realized what he has gotten himself into at the end of the press conference. Silva got in his face for the photo-op and Sonnen could barely look at him.

 

[hooter311]

I think Sonnen finally realized what he has gotten himself into at the end of the press conference. Silva got in his face for the photo-op and Sonnen could barely look at him.

I think this is all part of Sonnen's plan.I don't think he meant all of the trash talk, or the acting meek now leading up to the fight.His only chance is to get in Silva's head, to draw him in. Sonnen can't close the distance on Silva without opening himself to some viscous counters. If he can trick Silva into coming after him prematurely or too aggressively, he can try his luck with him on the ground. Sonnen has been playing this right and I bet White is thankful for taking some of the spotlight off of Silva's past performances.Silva will win 4/5 times, but Sonnen is counting on his miracle, that's really all he has.

 

[hooter311]

Full on board the Great Fat Hope Nelson bandwagon. I am slightly expecting JDS to win this but wouldn't surprise me one bit to see Nelson get a sub or a GnP stoppage.

I'll max this one out right before the fight, hoping for a bit better line. I think some of the spark of JDS is going to fade when Nelson gets a hold of him the first time. If he can get this to the ground, he will submit JDS.

 

[modogg]

I think Sonnen finally realized what he has gotten himself into at the end of the press conference. Silva got in his face for the photo-op and Sonnen could barely look at him.

I think this is all part of Sonnen's plan.I don't think he meant all of the trash talk, or the acting meek now leading up to the fight.

His only chance is to get in Silva's head, to draw him in. Sonnen can't close the distance on Silva without opening himself to some viscous counters. If he can trick Silva into coming after him prematurely or too aggressively, he can try his luck with him on the ground. Sonnen has been playing this right and I bet White is thankful for taking some of the spotlight off of Silva's past performances.

Silva will win 4/5 times, but Sonnen is counting on his miracle, that's really all he has.

Chael does crack me up, and apparently Thiago as well:http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2010/8/5/160660...rence#storyjump

i'm starting to get nervous for Chael's health though. An angry motivated Silva is pretty scary

 

[hooter311]

Also going to go ahead and max bet Hazelett over Story at -120.

Story is a solid fighter and I underestimated him last time I bet against him, but I don't think he has the power to drop Hazelett and Hazelett has a pretty sizable reach advantage while the fight stays standing. Only worries I have here is that Hazelett is a bit of an ignorant fighter and will let Story dictate the fight more than he should, also if Daley completely scrambled his brains in the last fight, he might not be able to take a beating like he used to. Story is sloppy on the ground and once the fight gets there he is going to get tangled up in a hurry.

 

[AhrnCityPahnder]

Agree strongly with Hazelett.

 

[Cliff Clavin]

Alves misses weight buy half a pound.

 

[hooter311]

Alves misses weight buy half a pound.

I think he has another hour or so to cut it, I bet he makes it and it won't affect the fight when all is said and done. That doesn't mean that his conditioning hasn't suffered if he's had to cut an unhealthy amount the past few days. I think some of his 40 lbs over before camp talk has been an exaggeration, but I have no idea how much. Trying to keep my money as far away from this fight as possible.

 

[modogg]

Alves misses weight buy half a pound.

I think he has another hour or so to cut it, I bet he makes it and it won't affect the fight when all is said and done. That doesn't mean that his conditioning hasn't suffered if he's had to cut an unhealthy amount the past few days. I think some of his 40 lbs over before camp talk has been an exaggeration, but I have no idea how much. Trying to keep my money as far away from this fight as possible.

the guy frustrates the hell out of me. He has to have learned his lesson on this one, losing 20% of his purse for .5 pound. I can't understand how he couldn't make weight though if he just had to lose .5 pound. The reports all over the MMA sites had Alves saying this was his easiest weight cut ever. What a mess, i would buy out of my Alves bet if the odds were not going against me.

 

[Voice Of Reason]

Anyone have any additional thoughts on Hughes vs Almeida?Almeida is still -155 at sportsbook, I'm failing to see why it's not closer to -200 or greater. I'm heavily considering making this a huge play.Hughes is a legend, but he's a fighter from a different era than what UFC has become. Almeida has looked like a monster at his lowered weight. Hughes didn't impress me at all in his last fight and Almedia was in the other corner watching the whole thing. Add in the revenge factor from a loss to Hughes at the beginning of the decade, and the fight goes even more in Almeida's favor. I think Almeida has quite a bit more power than what people are giving him credit for, Hughes's wrestling advantage goes out on the window in Almeida can get him in position when they go to the ground. Hughes also seems to think he has a standing advantage, I just don't see it although Almeida has never knocked anyone out.

I've kinda changed my mind on this fight as I have not been overly impressed with Almedia, I thought Kendal Grove should have beat him @ UFC 104. I am assuming the UFC wants Hughes to end his career winning, so I would stay away from this fight.