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UFC wagering: no longer stuck with the old thread title. The window to change it is here! (6 Viewers)

So what's up with BJ Penn's training? Was he in Hilo again or did he get back with Marv Marinovich?
Good question. Nothing I have read mentions his training so I'm assuming that he is back in Hilo. I'm sure a point would have been made if he was back with Marinovich.
 
Nice having a sportsbook that lets you parlay the UFC fights. I got a pretty nice one in I think. I have to wait a bit to get the payout, but i will probably play one or 2 similar to this one:

BJ Penn -300, Maia -210, Florian -160, Nate Marquardt -230, Brock Lesnar -160, Matt Hammill -165 $33 to win $362

I was a little late to some of these plays, but the I don't see a weak link on those picks. Possibly Hammill against Tito, but I really don't think Tito has much to offer in this fight. I have to say Tito did better against Forrest then i thought he would. Still, i don't see how Tito beats Hammill, especially with Tito having a year layoff between fights again.

as for the fights this Saturday, I have quite a bit on Florian already. Not sure what else i like, I hope the Andre Winner-Nick Lentz fight makes it to the broadcast. Same with Nick Osipczak-Soto.

 
Big fan of Florian over Maynard coming up this weekend too Mo. Likely going to be a 3u play for me (I currently have about 1u locked in at -145.) Florian gets overlooked because of how he got worked against Penn, but the guy is, IMO, legitimately the 2nd best LW in the world and looks better and better in every fight. I don't think Maynard offers much to Florian in this fight other than the outside chance that he can lay n' pray dry hump his way to a boring victory - but I think Florian tunes him up before it hits the ground, and offers too much off his back to get smothered. If Maynard tries to strike like he did in the Diaz fight, he's getting KO'd IMO.

 
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Nice having a sportsbook that lets you parlay the UFC fights. I got a pretty nice one in I think. I have to wait a bit to get the payout, but i will probably play one or 2 similar to this one:BJ Penn -300, Maia -210, Florian -160, Nate Marquardt -230, Brock Lesnar -160, Matt Hammill -165 $33 to win $362I was a little late to some of these plays, but the I don't see a weak link on those picks. Possibly Hammill against Tito, but I really don't think Tito has much to offer in this fight. I have to say Tito did better against Forrest then i thought he would. Still, i don't see how Tito beats Hammill, especially with Tito having a year layoff between fights again. as for the fights this Saturday, I have quite a bit on Florian already. Not sure what else i like, I hope the Andre Winner-Nick Lentz fight makes it to the broadcast. Same with Nick Osipczak-Soto.
I like most of those, except I think Miranda is going to surprise Maia.
 
Florian ... is, IMO, legitimately the 2nd best LW in the world
I've believed this for a while now. While Lay-n-Gray is very good at that, I like Florian (btw, I refuse to call him by his nickname....just awful) to win this fight too.
:lmao: Don't see how gray can win this. Florian will slice him up with elbows if he tries to lay on him and he'll get picked apart on the feet.Got 2.5u on florian @-155.
 
Nice having a sportsbook that lets you parlay the UFC fights. I got a pretty nice one in I think. I have to wait a bit to get the payout, but i will probably play one or 2 similar to this one:BJ Penn -300, Maia -210, Florian -160, Nate Marquardt -230, Brock Lesnar -160, Matt Hammill -165 $33 to win $362I was a little late to some of these plays, but the I don't see a weak link on those picks. Possibly Hammill against Tito, but I really don't think Tito has much to offer in this fight. I have to say Tito did better against Forrest then i thought he would. Still, i don't see how Tito beats Hammill, especially with Tito having a year layoff between fights again. as for the fights this Saturday, I have quite a bit on Florian already. Not sure what else i like, I hope the Andre Winner-Nick Lentz fight makes it to the broadcast. Same with Nick Osipczak-Soto.
I like most of those, except I think Miranda is going to surprise Maia.
hmm, I don't know a ton about Miranda, but I will take a look. Maia looked good against Chael and Dan Miller with his stand-up, and obviously on the ground Maia will be fine. I think now adays you have to try and find out who the possible refs may be, and i know Texas is not known for having the best athletic commission, but I think Maia is being under-rated here. The nice option is i can put a little on Miranda with some nice odds to balance the parlay if need be
 
Nothing terribly newsworthy here, just some Team Quest DramaEd Herman leaves, makes a few comments, Lindland fires back, and then Nate Quarry weighs in:Ed Herman

"I'd been wanting to make a move for a while. Things are kind of falling apart out in Oregon at (Team) Quest a little bit, and Matt Lindland's not the best person to be around all the time, so we needed to make our move." "There's no bridges burned or anything, but I didn't like the way fighters were getting taken care of. I didn't like the way students were getting taken care of. There were a lot of promises to me that were never fulfilled. So we had to make a move and make things happen ourself instead of #####ing and whining about stuff (and) not having this and not having that." "Chael did all that pretty much without any training partners. [Chael's] main training partner is Tyson Jeffries, who's a stud young guy, and maybe Matt Lindland and a couple of other guys like Pat and Ryan Healy. But those are his main training partners getting ready for that fight against Anderson Silva. Team Quest didn't bring in one person to help." "Chael has been one of my greatest partners for years and years, and I hated to leave him, but Matt really left us no choice."
Matt Lindland
"Ed never stepped onto an MMA mat before he came to our gym. We've done a lot to make him a pretty darn good fighter and a lot to make him more marketable. We got him on that TV show and helped him build a career. I think some of these younger guys get a little fame, a little notoriety and it goes to their head. They think everyone owes them something. It's hard to be successful in this sport with that kind of attitude, an attitude of entitlement." "It's almost like he's a little jealous of all the attention Chael Sonnen's gotten. There was a time when Ed was getting all that attention, all those accolades. Ed had his moment to shine on the TV show and he did great, fought his heart out in a great finals. But he's been hurt and been out for awhile with an injury. Keep in mind that this is all coming from a guy who hasn't even been in the gym for a year. He's not in the limelight. Maybe he's not getting recognized in the clubs?" "There is no magic pill or a magic coach we can hire. You have to put the time and the work in. "Ed wanted more but he doesn't even take advantage of what he already has. He's got loyal and dedicated sparring partners, great MMA coaches like Robert Follis and a great boxing coach like Clayton Hires. It's just unfortunate. People move on and that's fine. But don't leave and badmouth someone that's been trying to help you for almost a decade and make disparaging remarks about your team and your teammates publicly. If he had something to say, he could have said it to me, not gone out and done an interview."
And Nate Quarry from facebook:
I'm not going to say anything negative but here's a list of everyone who's left Team Quest in Portland. Leben, Herman, Shcultz, Horowhich, Haynes, Burkman, Couture, Harris, Jensen, Tanner, Henderson, Wilson, Dolce, Ellenberger. That's just the UFC and IFL vets. And me. Hmm....
then 10 mins later:
The really funny thing is that Lindland has said the same thing about every athlete that has left Quest. "They have an attitude of entitlement. They don't appreciate what they have." When everyone leaves and goes on to great success then who is the one with the problem? Did Couture, Henderson, Tanner, Dolce, Leben, Quarry (me), Herman, Schulz, Horowhich, Haynes, Burkman, Harris, Jensen, Wilson, Ellenberger all have the same problem? And the slander begins, as it did with me when I left.
 
Nice having a sportsbook that lets you parlay the UFC fights. I got a pretty nice one in I think. I have to wait a bit to get the payout, but i will probably play one or 2 similar to this one:BJ Penn -300, Maia -210, Florian -160, Nate Marquardt -230, Brock Lesnar -160, Matt Hammill -165 $33 to win $362I was a little late to some of these plays, but the I don't see a weak link on those picks. Possibly Hammill against Tito, but I really don't think Tito has much to offer in this fight. I have to say Tito did better against Forrest then i thought he would. Still, i don't see how Tito beats Hammill, especially with Tito having a year layoff between fights again. as for the fights this Saturday, I have quite a bit on Florian already. Not sure what else i like, I hope the Andre Winner-Nick Lentz fight makes it to the broadcast. Same with Nick Osipczak-Soto.
I like most of those, except I think Miranda is going to surprise Maia.
hmm, I don't know a ton about Miranda, but I will take a look. Maia looked good against Chael and Dan Miller with his stand-up, and obviously on the ground Maia will be fine. I think now adays you have to try and find out who the possible refs may be, and i know Texas is not known for having the best athletic commission, but I think Maia is being under-rated here. The nice option is i can put a little on Miranda with some nice odds to balance the parlay if need be
Miranda is going to be awfully tough to get to the ground and while Maia's standup is most likely underrated, Miranda has some brutal KO power at that weight class. He was a Brazil national champ at both Greco and Freestyle wrestling with a large frame to toss around. Also has a bjj blackbelt that may buy him a few more minutes if Maia gets him on the ground, no doubt that Maia could make anyone cry uncle.
 
Nice having a sportsbook that lets you parlay the UFC fights. I got a pretty nice one in I think. I have to wait a bit to get the payout, but i will probably play one or 2 similar to this one:BJ Penn -300, Maia -210, Florian -160, Nate Marquardt -230, Brock Lesnar -160, Matt Hammill -165 $33 to win $362I was a little late to some of these plays, but the I don't see a weak link on those picks. Possibly Hammill against Tito, but I really don't think Tito has much to offer in this fight. I have to say Tito did better against Forrest then i thought he would. Still, i don't see how Tito beats Hammill, especially with Tito having a year layoff between fights again. as for the fights this Saturday, I have quite a bit on Florian already. Not sure what else i like, I hope the Andre Winner-Nick Lentz fight makes it to the broadcast. Same with Nick Osipczak-Soto.
I like most of those, except I think Miranda is going to surprise Maia.
hmm, I don't know a ton about Miranda, but I will take a look. Maia looked good against Chael and Dan Miller with his stand-up, and obviously on the ground Maia will be fine. I think now adays you have to try and find out who the possible refs may be, and i know Texas is not known for having the best athletic commission, but I think Maia is being under-rated here. The nice option is i can put a little on Miranda with some nice odds to balance the parlay if need be
Miranda is going to be awfully tough to get to the ground and while Maia's standup is most likely underrated, Miranda has some brutal KO power at that weight class. He was a Brazil national champ at both Greco and Freestyle wrestling with a large frame to toss around. Also has a bjj blackbelt that may buy him a few more minutes if Maia gets him on the ground, no doubt that Maia could make anyone cry uncle.
:confused: When I first saw this fight announced, I liked the idea of getting Miranda as a decent sized underdog. Haven't had much time to look into it too deeply, but your points outline my initial thought process. Going to look closer into this one tomorrow and maybe look at a play on it.
 
Maia will get wrestlers to the ground all the time. He can get off throws with his judo or just pull guard vs anyone who lets him get close to him. A slick striker can keep distance is someone who Maia is going to have a tough time getting on the ground. Look at how he dropped Sonnen on his head like a JV wrestler vs his inability to get Anderson down.

I know nothing about Miranda, but if he isn't very good at controlling range and doesn't allow fighters to get close to him, Maia will likely get it to the ground.

 
Cliff Clavin said:
AhrnCityPahnder said:
sheerterror said:
Florian ... is, IMO, legitimately the 2nd best LW in the world
I've believed this for a while now. While Lay-n-Gray is very good at that, I like Florian (btw, I refuse to call him by his nickname....just awful) to win this fight too.
:lmao: Don't see how gray can win this. Florian will slice him up with elbows if he tries to lay on him and he'll get picked apart on the feet.Got 2.5u on florian @-155.
:lol: Count me in the "Florian is the second best lightweight in the world and should put Gray down" camp.
 
Looks like I'm the only one who likes Gray in this fight, and I'm a pretty big Florian fan myself.

I just can't help but look back at my past couple years of bets, seems like if I would have just taken the guy with the wrestling advantage every time, I'd be way up. Currently, I'm about even on the year, and that's only because I won the biggest bet of my life on Carwin/Mir.

I've got a large play on Lesnar/Cain, and I might just sit back and track results of this theory until then.

 
Looks like I'm the only one who likes Gray in this fight, and I'm a pretty big Florian fan myself.I just can't help but look back at my past couple years of bets, seems like if I would have just taken the guy with the wrestling advantage every time, I'd be way up. Currently, I'm about even on the year, and that's only because I won the biggest bet of my life on Carwin/Mir. I've got a large play on Lesnar/Cain, and I might just sit back and track results of this theory until then.
I think "when in doubt, bet on the superior wrestler" is a very solid strategy, but I only tend to follow that when I don't know the fighters involved or the talent level is very even. I see Florian as being far more skilled here, but others might disagree.
 
Looks like I'm the only one who likes Gray in this fight, and I'm a pretty big Florian fan myself.I just can't help but look back at my past couple years of bets, seems like if I would have just taken the guy with the wrestling advantage every time, I'd be way up. Currently, I'm about even on the year, and that's only because I won the biggest bet of my life on Carwin/Mir. I've got a large play on Lesnar/Cain, and I might just sit back and track results of this theory until then.
I think "when in doubt, bet on the superior wrestler" is a very solid strategy, but I only tend to follow that when I don't know the fighters involved or the talent level is very even. I see Florian as being far more skilled here, but others might disagree.
I too think Florian is far more skilled, but the first thing I'm reminded of is Dan Hornbuckle vs Ben Askren in Bellator 22. Hornbuckle was far more skilled and polished, and Askren didn't give him a chance to breathe.Now that was a different class of fighters and a different organization, but I just see the same thing happening here. I was on Hornbuckle that night, big.
 
Plus it's in his backyardBaaahhstahn is going to be wicked psyched to see Florian fight
From what I've seen, the home field advantage doesn't exist in MMA, but the crowd will be electric.
It would be interesting to study thatTake fighters fighting near their hometowns and see if there's any tangible benefit to it
I don't know the numbers, but the British fighters always do well in their own country.
 
Looks like I'm the only one who likes Gray in this fight, and I'm a pretty big Florian fan myself.I just can't help but look back at my past couple years of bets, seems like if I would have just taken the guy with the wrestling advantage every time, I'd be way up. Currently, I'm about even on the year, and that's only because I won the biggest bet of my life on Carwin/Mir. I've got a large play on Lesnar/Cain, and I might just sit back and track results of this theory until then.
I think "when in doubt, bet on the superior wrestler" is a very solid strategy, but I only tend to follow that when I don't know the fighters involved or the talent level is very even. I see Florian as being far more skilled here, but others might disagree.
I too think Florian is far more skilled, but the first thing I'm reminded of is Dan Hornbuckle vs Ben Askren in Bellator 22. Hornbuckle was far more skilled and polished, and Askren didn't give him a chance to breathe.Now that was a different class of fighters and a different organization, but I just see the same thing happening here. I was on Hornbuckle that night, big.
Wrestling is almost the biggest factor in matchups between non-elite level fighters. Guys at the tip top are better at controlling range, have better takedown defense, and make guys pay when they try to get in close. Hornbuckle is no where near the threat on the feet that Florian is when someone steps within range to shoot for a takedown.
 
Plus it's in his backyardBaaahhstahn is going to be wicked psyched to see Florian fight
From what I've seen, the home field advantage doesn't exist in MMA, but the crowd will be electric.
It would be interesting to study thatTake fighters fighting near their hometowns and see if there's any tangible benefit to it
I don't know the numbers, but the British fighters always do well in their own country.
Bisping has been fed cans and blind judges in the UK.
 
Picks for tomorrow:

Penn vs Edgar - I can't see Penn letting this go to the judges. I'd expect him to be a lot more aggressive and win via RNC (3rd)

Couture vs Toney - Toney will get one brief chance to land something and the fight will be over shortly after that one way or the other.

Florian vs Maynard - Florian has too many weapons. A split-decision win for lay'n'gray wouldn't be shocking but I'll take Florian via Decision

Maia vs Miranda - Don't know much about Miranda so the safe play is calling Maia by submission

Diaz vs Davis - If this turns into a boxing match, which I'm guessing it will, give me the old pro boxer over the slap fighter.

Only bet is on Florian so far.

 
I'll be there tomorrow night. Can't wait. I have great seats.

Only bet I am taking right now is Diaz over Davis.

 
I'll be there tomorrow night. Can't wait. I have great seats.Only bet I am taking right now is Diaz over Davis.
Congrats, should be a great time. Will be interesting to see how the crowd will be.Is the UFC fan expo tomorrow as well? I have to imagine that will be a great time as well
 
I'll be there tomorrow night. Can't wait. I have great seats.Only bet I am taking right now is Diaz over Davis.
Congrats, should be a great time. Will be interesting to see how the crowd will be.Is the UFC fan expo tomorrow as well? I have to imagine that will be a great time as well
Expo is 10-6 tomorrow. Meeting some friends, I will see if they want to check it out. I will be getting to Boston around 3:00 and plan to head to the arena pretty early. This will be my 4th UFC live event. 2 in Vegas (UFC 98: Evans- Machida; UFC 106: Ortiz-Griffin 2) and 1 in Newark (UFC 111: GSP - Hardy), and now Boston. Crowds were awesome in Vegas, terrible in Newark (booing GSP for continuously taking down Dan Hardy).No "big names" on this card, but I think it is solid top to bottom.
 
Plus it's in his backyardBaaahhstahn is going to be wicked psyched to see Florian fight
From what I've seen, the home field advantage doesn't exist in MMA, but the crowd will be electric.
It would be interesting to study thatTake fighters fighting near their hometowns and see if there's any tangible benefit to it
I will say, I was at the recent UFC event in Newark, and Jim Miller, a New Jersey native (his entrance music was the theme for "The Sopranos") was clearly beaten by Mark Bocek, and he was awarded the victory. Hometown crowd, and even they were stunned at the result.
 
Plus it's in his backyardBaaahhstahn is going to be wicked psyched to see Florian fight
From what I've seen, the home field advantage doesn't exist in MMA, but the crowd will be electric.
It would be interesting to study thatTake fighters fighting near their hometowns and see if there's any tangible benefit to it
I will say, I was at the recent UFC event in Newark, and Jim Miller, a New Jersey native (his entrance music was the theme for "The Sopranos") was clearly beaten by Mark Bocek, and he was awarded the victory. Hometown crowd, and even they were stunned at the result.
I totally screwed up getting tickets to this event (worst part is I am a big GSP nut-hugger), but this is a little surprising. I was at UFC 78 in Newark and the corwd was a real good one. I also attended the 101 event in Philly, and you could tell a pretty big difference in the crowd. The 78 event seemed like a lot more legit MMA fans and understood what was going on. The 101 event was a little different and more like the corwd you kind of explain at the show you were at.I thought originally it may be a good indication of the UFC going "mainstream". at UFC 78 the UFC wasn't quite there, but by the time 101 rolled around you had a lot more casual fans who wanted to see a toughman contest. It wasn't as bad as some of the crowds you see, but it wasn't as good as the crowd at 78. The UFC 78 card was pretty bad (main event was Bisping-Rashad), but the crowd was still pretty good overall, much better then what you see at a lot of the shows.
 
Just finalized everything for tonight.Couture vs Toney (won't go past 1st) -260Miranda +200Salter +190
I got a bit on K-Flo, with a nice size bet (well, nice size compared to account balance, i guess 25% of my acct. balance) of a parlay with the Eagles -1.5 over the Chiefs from last night (Thank you kafka, the boys had me sweat that one out) and K-FloI think i may join you with Salter and Miranda as well, nice small plays. I also played this at sportsbook (for measly $10 because sportsbook sucks)Maia vs. Miranda goes a complete round - yes -200: I don't see it ending in the 1st, i think it is a pretty comfortable bet.
 
prelims look to be on spike to anyone interested

Haven't been able to keep up with the UFC much of late, but has the reason Toney has been allowed in the UFC been released??? Sounds a lot like the sideshow type that Dana's swore up & down in the past he'd never allow in the UFC>

 
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Just finalized everything for tonight.

Couture vs Toney (won't go past 1st) -260

Miranda +200

Salter +190
I got a bit on K-Flo, with a nice size bet (well, nice size compared to account balance, i guess 25% of my acct. balance) of a parlay with the Eagles -1.5 over the Chiefs from last night (Thank you kafka, the boys had me sweat that one out) and K-FloI think i may join you with Salter and Miranda as well, nice small plays.

I also played this at sportsbook (for measly $10 because sportsbook sucks)

Maia vs. Miranda goes a complete round - yes -200: I don't see it ending in the 1st, i think it is a pretty comfortable bet.
Like this play a lot as well, will likely tail.
 
prelims look to be on spike to anyone interestedHas the reason Toney has been allowed in the UFC been released??? Sounds a lot like the sideshow type that Dana's swore up & down in the past he'd never allow in the UFC>
Dana is walking Toney into a trap to piss off the boxing community. Now he can say that one of his guys has beat a World Champ. Toney has absolutely nothing to offer, he will gas as soon as the fight goes to the ground, he was a great boxer, 85 lbs and 15 years ago.Very confident that Couture can eat Toney's best shot without shoes on.
 
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Just finalized everything for tonight.

Couture vs Toney (won't go past 1st) -260

Miranda +200

Salter +190
I got a bit on K-Flo, with a nice size bet (well, nice size compared to account balance, i guess 25% of my acct. balance) of a parlay with the Eagles -1.5 over the Chiefs from last night (Thank you kafka, the boys had me sweat that one out) and K-FloI think i may join you with Salter and Miranda as well, nice small plays.

I also played this at sportsbook (for measly $10 because sportsbook sucks)

Maia vs. Miranda goes a complete round - yes -200: I don't see it ending in the 1st, i think it is a pretty comfortable bet.
Like this play a lot as well, will likely tail.
Haven't got my props cut yet at sb because I'm too ignorant to make money.
 
Add Edgar by decision +350.

BJ Penn is my favorite fighter, but he seriously needs to get his head out of his ### and get a real training regime. The big skill advantage he has is again going to be negated again by Frankie outworking him.

 
prelims look to be on spike to anyone interestedHas the reason Toney has been allowed in the UFC been released??? Sounds a lot like the sideshow type that Dana's swore up & down in the past he'd never allow in the UFC>
Dana is walking Toney into a trap to piss off the boxing community. Now he can say that one of his guys has beat a World Champ. Toney has absolutely nothing to offer, he will gas as soon as the fight goes to the ground, he was a great boxer, 85 lbs and 15 years ago.Very confident that Couture can eat Toney's best shot without shoes on.
I fully expect Couture to win this, but c'mon. Shoes or not, if somehow Toney catches him, Randy will take a nap.
 
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prelims look to be on spike to anyone interestedHas the reason Toney has been allowed in the UFC been released??? Sounds a lot like the sideshow type that Dana's swore up & down in the past he'd never allow in the UFC>
Dana is walking Toney into a trap to piss off the boxing community. Now he can say that one of his guys has beat a World Champ. Toney has absolutely nothing to offer, he will gas as soon as the fight goes to the ground, he was a great boxer, 85 lbs and 15 years ago.Very confident that Couture can eat Toney's best shot without shoes on.
I fully expect Couture to win this, but c'mon. Shoes or not, if somehow Toney catches him, Randy will take a nap.
Did you see Toney at the weigh in? If he honestly wanted to win this fight he would have came in a lot closer to 205, 210. 237? What a fat slob. When boxers are "done", they are done, and Mr. Toney is no exception.
 
Just finalized everything for tonight.

Couture vs Toney (won't go past 1st) -260

Miranda +200

Salter +190
I'm not a big UFC guy, but how on earth is that only -260?
The fact it is so low kind of scares me that perhaps its a sucker bet. Thought it should be closer to -360
Well, you guys sucked me into it. I just played:Randy-Toney un225 seconds -115

Funny how rusty my basic math has got. Took me a minute to figure out how much time 225 seconds was. :homer:

 
Just finalized everything for tonight.Couture vs Toney (won't go past 1st) -260Miranda +200Salter +190
I got a bit on K-Flo, with a nice size bet (well, nice size compared to account balance, i guess 25% of my acct. balance) of a parlay with the Eagles -1.5 over the Chiefs from last night (Thank you kafka, the boys had me sweat that one out) and K-FloI think i may join you with Salter and Miranda as well, nice small plays. I also played this at sportsbook (for measly $10 because sportsbook sucks)Maia vs. Miranda goes a complete round - yes -200: I don't see it ending in the 1st, i think it is a pretty comfortable bet.
Salter had Miller gassing until he forced the issue. What is Miller's deal with wanting to stand and trade with everyone? I feel bad about his personal situation, but can't help continuing to fade him.
 

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