Cliff Clavin
Footballguy
How is Kos going to beat GSP?
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UFC wagering: no longer stuck with the old thread title. The window to change it is here! (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter AhrnCityPahnder
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hooter311
Footballguy
Here's my analysis:GSP is considered the best wrestler in his division despite not having any formal training growing up. Koscheck was a 4 time All American college wrestler. I think that he is capable of making the adjustments he needs to either neutralize GSP or possibly even have the edge when the fight hits the mat. Really impressed with GSP's win against Fitch who I consider the best wrestler in the division, but that was back in '08 already. Since then he's faced a gassed Penn and 2 guys with hardly any wrestling at all (Alves and Hardy). If the fight stays standing, Kos has more than enough power to end this. This fight has been driving Kos nuts and despite being a total Dbag, he is a world class athlete.If GSP was -200 I would say pile it on him, but -450 is a bit insane and Kos at +360 I'll take all day. Probably will fund my Matchbook and see how close I can get to +450 by fight night.
AhrnCityPahnder
Yinz-o-riffic
strictly on a wrestling basis, GSP wiped the floor with Kos in their last fight. I can't imagine how that has changed since then. You can definitely say that Kos is a much, much better striker since then, but he's going to be on his back this entire fight IMO.
hooter311
Footballguy
I know, but you don't think Kos could make the adjustments to neutralize how GSP manhandled him before? It's not like GSP has a decisive strength advantage over Kos. I think part of what works so well for GSP's wrestling is his style is a bit unorthodox because the dude is a straight up martial artist.GSP showed no killer instinct in not snapping Hardy's arm despite how lopsided the fight was. He dinks around with Kos like that he and will regret it.GSP is great and wins this fight 60% of the time, but not 80% like the line suggests. I think he is overvalued, that is all.
AhrnCityPahnder
Yinz-o-riffic
I guess it's possible, but I'm not going to believe it until I see it.
He's going to have to him in the face. Real hard.
Cliff Clavin
Footballguy
As Arhn said, GSP dominated Kos via wrestling in their first fight. Maybe the first couple takedowns surprised Kos in that fight, but there is no excuse for getting abused like that for 3 rounds. I doubt Kos's wrestling has improved that much where he can handle GSP.As for Kos punching power, I'm very underwhelmed. He has 4 KO's in 19 fights. -Hazlett has zero standup and has been KO's in 3 of his last 5 fights-Trigg is/was washed up. His last win over someone I recognize was over Jason Miller in '06.-I remember the Yoshida fight pretty clearly. The guy had his hands about two feet apart not covering his head at all. Rogan kept laughing at it and saying that he was going to get KO'd because of it and sure enough, he did.The win over Rumble is the only impressive thing I've seen out of Kos is a long time. And really, other than Rumble, the only top tier fighter that Kos has beat would be Sanchez and I have a tough time calling either of them top tier.
One thing to note is that, in the first matchup, Koscheck didn't train his wrestling at all. His view was that no one could out-wrestle him, so why bother working on it. Obviously, he was wrong. I'm guessing he has worked on that aspect of his game this time around.
Cliff Clavin
Footballguy
Koscheck spent his life wrestling, do you think another month or two would have made much of a difference?
Of course it would. No matter how good a fighter is as something, he needs to keep working on it to stay sharp. At the elite level, everything bit of edge matters.
Abrantes
Footballguy
I love how the UFC can hype a fight in such a way to make you believe that even the biggest underdog has some kind of chance. I agree that the line on Koscheck is really nice, but I don't think he has much more than a puncher's chance here. His supposed improvement since their previous encounter has been grossly overblown. In particular, despite Koscheck's punching power, his striking still isn't very technically sound. He still relies too much on the big overhand right and isn't all that good at combinations. His wrestling is exceptional, of course, but I don't know if his jiu-jitsu has improved any.
If GSP decides to keep it standing, I could see it unfolding like the Fitch fight, but I don't know if Kos could survive that kind of a beating. However, I'm guessing that GSP will do the smart thing and just take Kos down repeatedly after setting up his shots with a bit of striking. To me, their first fight wasn't particularly close, and I actually think that St. Pierre is the more improved fighter since then.
If GSP decides to keep it standing, I could see it unfolding like the Fitch fight, but I don't know if Kos could survive that kind of a beating. However, I'm guessing that GSP will do the smart thing and just take Kos down repeatedly after setting up his shots with a bit of striking. To me, their first fight wasn't particularly close, and I actually think that St. Pierre is the more improved fighter since then.
Voice Of Reason
Footballguy
If Koscheck is right about not training wrestling, he probably didn't train wrestling specifically since his start in MMA to the GSP fight. If that is the case, given Kos' NCAA wrestling credentials, he could more than hold his own in the wrestling department vs GSP. I think GSP is a better striker than Koscheck and expect to see GSP open this fight looking to strike with Koscheck. Whoever is getting the better of those early striking exchanges will be able to change levels and go for a takedown or just continue keeping it standing. It is hard to judge GSP's striking though because he's fought really good standup guys, and Dan Hardy, in his last few fights so he's had no reason to keep the fight standing since Fitch or Hughes.
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Sebowski
Footballguy
They can do all they want. I'll still never believe the winner of Serra-Lytle can beat GSP.
Go Lytle!Oh wait.Sebowski said:
jestertj
Footballguy
I agree with pretty much all of this. Kos is a good heel, and someone has to fight GSP.Abrantes said:I love how the UFC can hype a fight in such a way to make you believe that even the biggest underdog has some kind of chance. I agree that the line on Koscheck is really nice, but I don't think he has much more than a puncher's chance here. His supposed improvement since their previous encounter has been grossly overblown. In particular, despite Koscheck's punching power, his striking still isn't very technically sound. He still relies too much on the big overhand right and isn't all that good at combinations. His wrestling is exceptional, of course, but I don't know if his jiu-jitsu has improved any.If GSP decides to keep it standing, I could see it unfolding like the Fitch fight, but I don't know if Kos could survive that kind of a beating. However, I'm guessing that GSP will do the smart thing and just take Kos down repeatedly after setting up his shots with a bit of striking. To me, their first fight wasn't particularly close, and I actually think that St. Pierre is the more improved fighter since then.
modogg
Footballguy
Oh bud, please don't do this. Yes the GSP line has moved quite a bit, but I think Kos has a less then 5% chance to win this fight. i haven't read the resst of these posts yet to see more of the analysis, but i don't think Kos has the advantage anywhere. GSP's striking was good before he became an excellent wrestler. If you want to bet this fight, take some of the prop fights like the GSP inside distance or GSP by decision. Personally, i am thinking it won't go to decision, adn that GSP will find a way to end the fight before the 5 rounds are up. Not sure of it, but if you are going to bet on Kos, make it for about .5 unit or less, please
John Bender
Footballguy
i more surprised there are people who dislike GSP out there. Guy is straight class. I don't even want to like him, but I do.
hooter311
Footballguy
He was greased in that first Penn fight.
hooter311
Footballguy
Appreciate it Mo, always look forward to what you have to say and you're contradiction will definitely be noted.Also, I don't recall for sure but I've seen mention that Kos had a quad injury going into that first fight too. That would make a huge difference on the mat.
We will see, I'll likely tie in another play or two for GSP by decision in a parlay or something. I really think if GSP gets an advantage he will still try to play it safe. Kos may be a little over anxious with the takedown attempts and could gas early.
hooter311
Footballguy
I'm not quite as sold on Struve as I was before. McCorkle is about as big of a wildcard as it gets in MMA. From the sounds of it the guy pretty much talked his way in on the forums after dominating local competition. Stuve's only lost against Big Country and JDS since coming to the UFC, a couple of nobodies before that when he was 17 and 19. I don't know how much you can factor that in. McCorkle has been facing freakshow super heavyweights at 350+ so Stuve is going to be a completely different fighter than what he is used to. McCorkle will either take him down very quickly and pound his noggin in or he will gas himself and Stuve will catch him in some sort of sub. Stuve's is just such a lanky sob, I really don't know how to get a read on him. I wish the boy would eat and put some weight on. At 6'11", he shouldn't be fighting at 240.Anybody else? Anyone actually seen McCorkle fight? I've only seen some blurry camera phone recordings.ETA: Mark Hunt is a jobber, so lets just leave that one out of it.
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Cliff Clavin
Footballguy
Hunt is a jobber, but he is also a vet and it was McCorkle's first fight in the UFC. Not exactly the easiest fight ever.It'll be McCorkle or nothing for me in this fight. Struve just seems to weak to compete with the big boys.
Cliff Clavin
Footballguy
There is a torrent on demonoid right now that has all of GSP's fights including 6 from outside the UFC.
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Voice Of Reason
Footballguy
Kos is better than 5%. Although I think that GSP is a better striker than Koscheck, he's not so polished that is < 5% to win.
I don't like GSP personally because I find him disingenuous whenever he does anything public. Ever fight is the toughest of his career, every training camp was the best ever, etc. Perhaps he truthfully acts and speaks as if a PR firm works inside his head, but I find it unlikely.
NutterButter
Footballguy
I'm guessing you mean the 2nd one. 1st one was the controversial decision.
RudiStein
*Not really a bail bondsman
And I don't think it was ever determined that he was greased. I think the Nevada officials even looked into it.
AhrnCityPahnder
Yinz-o-riffic
but BJ Penn's mom said he was.
hooter311
Footballguy
GSP by decision is +171 at 5 dimes, I guess I like this even more than Koscheck.
GSP's gameplan works, why would he change it. I think Kos talking about knocking him out is just Kos, I remember the same crap when he was talking about going toe to toe with Daley. Neither of these guys want to stand and swing, Kos knows he's out techniqued by GSP, I don't think GSP even yet has full confidence in his chin. I expect it to at least be closer than before on the mat, and GSP being in no hurry to finish.
Thanks mo.
GSP's gameplan works, why would he change it. I think Kos talking about knocking him out is just Kos, I remember the same crap when he was talking about going toe to toe with Daley. Neither of these guys want to stand and swing, Kos knows he's out techniqued by GSP, I don't think GSP even yet has full confidence in his chin. I expect it to at least be closer than before on the mat, and GSP being in no hurry to finish.
Thanks mo.
RudiStein
*Not really a bail bondsman
Point taken.
John Bender
Footballguy
Any thoughts at Mac Danzig at +235? I kind of like that number...but i know Mac has been a huge disappointment lately.
Any idea where he's been training and what his focus is these days? Really just curious, I may not even play it but I do like the value for a small quarter unit perhaps.
Any idea where he's been training and what his focus is these days? Really just curious, I may not even play it but I do like the value for a small quarter unit perhaps.
John Bender
Footballguy
I do like Sean Pierson at +215. Riddle is still green and Pierson may be new to the Octagon but the guys been fighting for a decade now over in a few smaller circuits. Good value, I don't think this is a gimme for Riddle
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hooter311
Footballguy
Recent stuff I've seen from him has him looking like a focused and man possessed. Stevenson is such a powerful little badger though. They are going to be transitioning on the mat almost the entire fight with Danzig looking for the RNC and Stevenson the guillotine. I think we get an ugly decision but may be closer to a coinflip than people are giving Danzig credit for. This line has been dropping since it was released.
hooter311
Footballguy
Like this one more. Riddle has a motor and has more of an advantage the longer the fight goes. Pierson is a tough sob and is going to be looking to floor him early.
John Bender
Footballguy
good stuff hooter, thank you.I also say this is no-doubt a decision...on bookmaker.com they are offeringDanzig/Joe Daddy OVER 12.5 minutes - I'm taking this one for at least a unit
John Bender
Footballguy
Also on bookmaker
Pierson +1500 for fastest knockout of the night.
Like I said, we have a very green Riddle and Pierson has won 4 of his last 5 fights by KO or TKO
Pierson +1500 for fastest knockout of the night.
Like I said, we have a very green Riddle and Pierson has won 4 of his last 5 fights by KO or TKO
hooter311
Footballguy
If you're going to play for this, maybe a little on McCorkle at +1100 would be a good idea. He rushed Mark Hunt and Struve has shown that he takes way too many shots early. His subs are usually in desperation. I'm quoting 5dimes lines, bookmaker may be different.
John Bender
Footballguy
hooter311
Footballguy
Good luck man, I'll have my money where my mouth is as well. Don't really see who else on this card is going to get it done.+1000 on bookmaker.1 unit each (max is 100 anyway)
Voice Of Reason
Footballguy
+171?????I was going to post how I thought we'd be more likely to see a finish as this fight stays standing for a bit, but +171 is way too good of a price.
hooter311
Footballguy
I thought it would/should be closer to +115/120.People must really be taking Freddie Roach's comments to heart. I'm not buying any of it.
Tremendous Upside
Footballguy
Used to be performify...not sure what happened to himHere's a pretty comprehensive breakdown of the fights via Sherdog:
http://www.sherdog.com/news/articles/1/UFC...Main-Card-28626
I buy 95% of UFC PPVs with a buddy of mine
Tomorrow's is one of the first in a while where we were meh on it when the card was finalized
Then a friend of ours scheduled a BDay night out, so we will be out boozing while it is on, but I figure we'll grab the PPV replay drunk as #### at some point when we get home
There are some OK fights, but I don't think Kos can hang with GS so the card as a whole is underwhelming
AhrnCityPahnder
Yinz-o-riffic
Miss his quality breakdown/predictions. No one else has filled that void that I've seen.
Tremendous Upside
Footballguy
Any idea what happened? Just fell off the web, so to speak
AhrnCityPahnder
Yinz-o-riffic
He still posts on mmajunkie forums regularly (he's an admin there), but just haven't seen any fight breakdowns from him much at all lately.
http://forums.mmajunkie.com/search.php?aut...53&sr=posts
http://forums.mmajunkie.com/search.php?aut...53&sr=posts
Cliff Clavin
Footballguy
Very average.
