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UFC wagering: no longer stuck with the old thread title. The window to change it is here! (8 Viewers)

TJ Grant +150

Dan Miller -250

Dustin Hazelett +140

Struve -135

Alves via TKO +135

Stevenson via Decision +129

Jim Miller via Decision +275

GSP via Decision +209

 
sheerterror said:
I've got absolutely nothing on this card - can't find a single bet I like. Good luck on it guys.
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I have to agree here a bit bud, nothing really stands out to me as a great bet. I have various bets out there, and a few parlays. but am not risking too much on any one bet. I have more of prop plays, and a lot similar to Hooter. Playing a lot of + bets with the props, so if i hit under .500 i should still make some money tonight.
 
modogg said:
sheerterror said:
I've got absolutely nothing on this card - can't find a single bet I like. Good luck on it guys.
Click to expand...
I have to agree here a bit bud, nothing really stands out to me as a great bet. I have various bets out there, and a few parlays. but am not risking too much on any one bet. I have more of prop plays, and a lot similar to Hooter. Playing a lot of + bets with the props, so if i hit under .500 i should still make some money tonight.
Click to expand...
I'm spread out pretty thin besides the Grant and Hazelett plays. Almeida doesn't impress me at all and Grant does, Hazelett is on another level in the BJJ department, striking is his downfall and Bocek is a big step down from the guys that have destroyed him. Also think that Jim Miller is going is grind out Oliveira. Miller has never been submitted and has the wrestling to keep him down. Oliveria is going to try to kick his legs out from a distance. Dan Miller just has had a lot of tought luck in his life, I'm amazed he's continued fighting actually, but he's still pretty good, and can be great if his game is on, hasn't been in a while though.
 
No major rhyme or reason here...just some action (besides the last two parlays below, didn't bet all that much).

Grant (gonna roll with Hooter on this one)

Oliveira

Pierson

Stevenson+DMiller

Bocek

Bongfeldt

Struve

Alves+Pierre

Alves+Pierre+ two quarterfinal Ws from K1 last night (don't want to spoil if you have managed to stay away from what happened)

 
hooter311 said:
modogg said:
sheerterror said:
I've got absolutely nothing on this card - can't find a single bet I like. Good luck on it guys.
Click to expand...
I have to agree here a bit bud, nothing really stands out to me as a great bet. I have various bets out there, and a few parlays. but am not risking too much on any one bet. I have more of prop plays, and a lot similar to Hooter. Playing a lot of + bets with the props, so if i hit under .500 i should still make some money tonight.
Click to expand...
I'm spread out pretty thin besides the Grant and Hazelett plays. Almeida doesn't impress me at all and Grant does, Hazelett is on another level in the BJJ department, striking is his downfall and Bocek is a big step down from the guys that have destroyed him. Also think that Jim Miller is going is grind out Oliveira. Miller has never been submitted and has the wrestling to keep him down. Oliveria is going to try to kick his legs out from a distance. Dan Miller just has had a lot of tought luck in his life, I'm amazed he's continued fighting actually, but he's still pretty good, and can be great if his game is on, hasn't been in a while though.
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I hope Hazlett pulls it out. I was a little concerned with his first time at the new weight and I believe it has been some time since he fought last, and I'm not sure how his stand-up is these days. Plus, Bocek is one of those guys with the high motor and is respectable enough to push the pace with hazlett. I hope Hazlett wins, and i think i have a little on him, but not much. I don't know what to think of Almeida, the way he lost to Hughes, it is hard to have any faith in the guy. As for Miller-Oliveira, i am glad i don't have too much on either side. I have Oliveira in a parlay or 2, and i have the Miller by decision prop. i think my biggest plays are playing GSP inside distance and GSP by decision. I played it so all i need is a GSP win and i will make some money. I was also tempted to play some of the possible Fight of the Night props, but i missed them. I am not sure who i would have picked, but I definitely would have had something on the main event as the FONAnd i am tempted if there is still time to try some of the Fight of the Night and other similar props.
 
modogg said:
hooter311 said:
modogg said:
sheerterror said:
I've got absolutely nothing on this card - can't find a single bet I like. Good luck on it guys.
Click to expand...
I have to agree here a bit bud, nothing really stands out to me as a great bet. I have various bets out there, and a few parlays. but am not risking too much on any one bet. I have more of prop plays, and a lot similar to Hooter. Playing a lot of + bets with the props, so if i hit under .500 i should still make some money tonight.
Click to expand...
I'm spread out pretty thin besides the Grant and Hazelett plays. Almeida doesn't impress me at all and Grant does, Hazelett is on another level in the BJJ department, striking is his downfall and Bocek is a big step down from the guys that have destroyed him. Also think that Jim Miller is going is grind out Oliveira. Miller has never been submitted and has the wrestling to keep him down. Oliveria is going to try to kick his legs out from a distance. Dan Miller just has had a lot of tought luck in his life, I'm amazed he's continued fighting actually, but he's still pretty good, and can be great if his game is on, hasn't been in a while though.
Click to expand...
I hope Hazlett pulls it out. I was a little concerned with his first time at the new weight and I believe it has been some time since he fought last, and I'm not sure how his stand-up is these days. Plus, Bocek is one of those guys with the high motor and is respectable enough to push the pace with hazlett. I hope Hazlett wins, and i think i have a little on him, but not much. I don't know what to think of Almeida, the way he lost to Hughes, it is hard to have any faith in the guy. As for Miller-Oliveira, i am glad i don't have too much on either side. I have Oliveira in a parlay or 2, and i have the Miller by decision prop. i think my biggest plays are playing GSP inside distance and GSP by decision. I played it so all i need is a GSP win and i will make some money. I was also tempted to play some of the possible Fight of the Night props, but i missed them. I am not sure who i would have picked, but I definitely would have had something on the main event as the FONAnd i am tempted if there is still time to try some of the Fight of the Night and other similar props.
Click to expand...
I had some success in the past hitting Quickest Sub of the Night props. Thought process was that there generally aren't that many subs, so if you can identify 3 fights where the likelihood of a sub is highest (much easier said than done) you are sitting pretty. I managed to hit this probably 3 of the 4 cards I messed with it - didn't have the time to look into it this card though. I think it's a bit more of a profitable play than Quickest KO or FOTN because you tend to see more KOs than subs and FOTN is pretty much an absolute crapshoot.
 
Only bet that looks good to me is Struve. Although Joe Daddy has beaten better competition than Danzig, he's strangely inconsistent and hasn't looked particularly special. As my friend put it, Stevenson/Danzig looks like it should be a KOTC title fight from 5 years ago. As for Almeida/Grant, that's a damn interesting fight, but I caution people not to overlook Almeida. His grappling is phenomenal, and clearly outclasses Grant in that regard. Of course, that means Grant will get a guillotine win just to show me up, but hey. :rolleyes:

 
Clorox said:
sheerterror said:
Adding Struve by sub +200 at my local.....this f'n thread....I can't go 1 event without a bet!
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LOL, same here...it wouldn't be fun if I wasn't pissing away some of my GR winnings.ETA - 5D has this at +240
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Yea saw that, they've got GREAT prop prices. I was they had the selection that Sportsbook offered on all props, because I'm getting really really tired of getting cut off of Sportsbook/sister sites. I wanted to give the local some action even though those pricks aren't allowing me to parlay fights on this card - which is probably the real reason I have so little action.
 
sheerterror said:
Clorox said:
sheerterror said:
Adding Struve by sub +200 at my local.....this f'n thread....I can't go 1 event without a bet!
Click to expand...
LOL, same here...it wouldn't be fun if I wasn't pissing away some of my GR winnings.ETA - 5D has this at +240
Click to expand...
Yea saw that, they've got GREAT prop prices. I was they had the selection that Sportsbook offered on all props, because I'm getting really really tired of getting cut off of Sportsbook/sister sites. I wanted to give the local some action even though those pricks aren't allowing me to parlay fights on this card - which is probably the real reason I have so little action.
Click to expand...
They come pretty close to SB's selection, but what ticks me off is that they wait until the lines get beat up at SB before they post them. Then when they do post them, the lines move quickly. BetUS has been dragging their feet as well and they don't have quite the selection, but they are so sloooooow to move the lines. SB is the king, but I usually can cobble together most of the card at the other two.
 
hooter311 said:
Clorox said:
sheerterror said:
Hooter great line on GSP via decision...where did you find that if you don't mind me asking?
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5Dimes has it +206...thinking about playing it just for something to do...
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5dimes was where I was playing as well.
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Personally, I like the win by unaninimous decision better at 5dimes, +234 i think is what i got it at. My most money is split between this and GSP winning inside the distance.
 
modogg said:
hooter311 said:
Clorox said:
sheerterror said:
Hooter great line on GSP via decision...where did you find that if you don't mind me asking?
Click to expand...
5Dimes has it +206...thinking about playing it just for something to do...
Click to expand...
5dimes was where I was playing as well.
Click to expand...
Personally, I like the win by unaninimous decision better at 5dimes, +234 i think is what i got it at. My most money is split between this and GSP winning inside the distance.
Click to expand...
I must have missed it, because you're probably right.
 
Wow, fight of the night bonus is $100,000? does that mean all bonuses are there? i have to imagine the incentive with that is huge

 
anybody ever try betdsi.com? they are aparently the first site to offer live betting with MMA fights, i definitely would like to get in on that at some point

 
AhrnCityPahnder said:
;)
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Not sure this is directed toward Danzig, but if so i agree. I certainly didn't see that coming (and Stevenson has to be pissed because you hear most of the fight greg Jackson yelling "Take him down Joe"), and that was a great punch by Danzig. The precision and placement of that was beautifuland good call earlier by Sheer about focusing on submission of the night. Outside of the one Cro Cop won a few UFCs ago, they make more sense to rely on. Never would have predicted Danzig would have a good chance to win KO of the night
 
Good chance we just saw a Fight of the Night. Riddle is so much the lighter version of Forrest griffin, maybe Stefan Bonner.

 
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