UFC wagering: no longer stuck with the old thread title. The window to change it is here! (1 Viewer)

[Abrantes]

The same argument can be made for just about anyone @ HW in MMA. Before Lesnar, who has Cain beat, a washed up Nog and Kongo? Who has Lesnar ever beaten? Mir, "who isn't really that good" and a guy who totally gassed after 1 round.

HW MMA rankings are totally based on projecting as the division is so shallow and untalented that we don't have a solid barometer on where guys actually stand.

______

Duffee is primarily a boxer so I'd think it is likely this fight stays standing. Good point about the K-1 GP being 20 days ago.

______

Not sure why you think Duffee is solid whereas Rogers "isn't that good."

(Cropped out my stuff 'cause I hate clogging up the page with long posts. Anyone can go back to look if they want.)I don't care much about artificial MMA rankings, honestly. Props to Overeem for running through average competition (and don't get me wrong, he's looked good in dispatching them) but you gotta beat someone for me to take you seriously. It's interesting to see how much hype the dude garners based on close to nothing substantial. He's a damn good fighter, but I don't see him as any kind of world-beater yet.

As for Cain and Lesnar, they had both beaten stiffer heavyweight competition than Overeem, regardless of how you want to paint their opponents. I think that's stretching it a bit (though you can look up my posts decrying the Lesnar myth prior to the Cain loss).

Do you disagree that Rogers isn't that good? I didn't think it was much of a contentious claim. His striking technique is limited, his gas tank is lousy and he doesn't have much of a ground game. Even at this early stage, Duffee's striking is more polished than Rogers', and seems to have just as much power. Duffee is a good prospect with impressive potential. Not elite, but I wouldn't be at all shocked if he pulled this one off.

Good luck to everyone!

 

[Abrantes]

So who's staying up from 4am to 11am to watch this K1 card?

15-fight Japanese card = rough morning.

 

[modogg]

Has anyone's star faded faster than Mousasi's?Strikeforce sure knows how to bury fightersNot his talent, mind youJust his "name"/cred

I can not think of one. You could say something like a Kimbo Slice, but that is only if we are looking at pure mainstream. There have been some guys with some hype who have come in, but i can not remember a guy who built himself up like Gegard did to fall off the face of the earth. I also think of someone like Sokodju (i have to have spelled that wrong, that is a tough one), but Gegard certainly fell faster and farther. Really strange how it happened, and i am not sure why.

The reason is Strikeforce IMOThey are a mickey mouse promoter and has their fighters fight once a ####### year

maybe this plays more into it then i first thought, and the discussion between VoR and Abrantes has me thinking Brett Rogers fits in this category as well. Rogers had some good momentum after he KO'd Arlovski, and he hung better and longer then most thought he could against Fedor. But after Overeem destroyed him he seems like he is not even an after-thought anymore. maybe it is a Strikeforce thing, where they can hype a fighter and cause an interest, but once they lose they dissapear for awhile.

 

[modogg]

So who's staying up from 4am to 11am to watch this K1 card?

15-fight Japanese card = rough morning.

seriously, and it is too much for the DVR to handle. i do like this better though then the other shows, will be kind of sweet waking up tomorrow and watching the fights live

 

[Abrantes]

Has anyone's star faded faster than Mousasi's?Strikeforce sure knows how to bury fightersNot his talent, mind youJust his "name"/cred

I can not think of one. You could say something like a Kimbo Slice, but that is only if we are looking at pure mainstream. There have been some guys with some hype who have come in, but i can not remember a guy who built himself up like Gegard did to fall off the face of the earth. I also think of someone like Sokodju (i have to have spelled that wrong, that is a tough one), but Gegard certainly fell faster and farther. Really strange how it happened, and i am not sure why.

The reason is Strikeforce IMOThey are a mickey mouse promoter and has their fighters fight once a ####### year

maybe this plays more into it then i first thought, and the discussion between VoR and Abrantes has me thinking Brett Rogers fits in this category as well. Rogers had some good momentum after he KO'd Arlovski, and he hung better and longer then most thought he could against Fedor. But after Overeem destroyed him he seems like he is not even an after-thought anymore. maybe it is a Strikeforce thing, where they can hype a fighter and cause an interest, but once they lose they dissapear for awhile.

Lack of organization plays a huge part into Strikeforce's failures. They don't seem to have any proper scheduling or forethought. Can't seem to book the fights people want to see on a timely basis. By the time the big fights happen, the hype has died down. It's silly.Also, Sokoudjou's fall from grace has been truly hilarious.

 

[Voice Of Reason]

I don't think Rogers is an elite HW and don't want to try to argue that, but I'm curious as to why you said Duffee is a solid HW and Rogers "isn't any good."

I also disagree with you on Alistair. I think he's the best HW in MMA. But there is less certainty in that, due to AO's lack of high level MMA fights. His resume' isn't too bad comparatively, he ragdolled Cro-Cop and Rogers. This isn't much worse than someone like JDS, who looked less impressive vs Cro-Cop, but has a win over Werdum as well.

Strikeforce seems to promote event to event with little regard for the future. They have no idea how to promote fighters. This is why Strikeforce has really only created one star, Gilbert Melendez, the rest are guys from other promotions.

 

[Abrantes]

I don't think Rogers is an elite HW and don't want to try to argue that, but I'm curious as to why you said Duffee is a solid HW and Rogers "isn't any good."

If you're gonna take me literally enough to pull out the quotation marks, at least keep it to "isn't all that good", like I said. Rogers obviously has some talent to get to where he is in the MMA world, and a win over him has merit. The "isn't all that good", however, was used in the context of Overeem facing top heavyweight competitors. What I tried to explain is that I certainly wouldn't include Rogers in that group, and that his brief high standing in the MMA rankings was deceptive. Hope that helps some.As for Duffee, I thought I explained myself pretty clearly on the last post. I don't consider him elite yet, but he's a solid fighter with impressive potential, and although comparing the two was never my intention, Duffee already looks more polished than Rogers. If the two fought, I'd pick Duffee in a heartbeat.

We'll have to agree to disagree on Overeem, naturally. I'm not trying to change your mind. Just my two cents. With all due respect, though (and I do value your opinion!), I think saying Overeem's recent HW MMA record isn't much worse than Junior's is pretty loony.

 

[Voice Of Reason]

I take back my statement on AO vs JDS's resume, for some reason I completely forgot about the Nelson and Gonzaga fights for JDS.

My point about HW is that even the elite of the UFC HW class do not have great resume's. I thought of JDS because of the common opponent in Cro-Cop.

And comparing Rogers to Duffee seemed like a good starting point in evaluating the Duffee-Overeem fight.

 

[Voice Of Reason]

The Aoki fight made staying up so worth it

 

[Abrantes]

[No message]

 

[Abrantes]

The Aoki fight made staying up so worth it

Just watched it now. That was refreshing, particularly after that ridiculous first round.

 

[Cliff Clavin]

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Details?

 

[Abrantes]

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Details?

 

[modogg]

Alistair Overeem is the master of fading late into fights. Duffee's gas tank is suspect, but I actually give Duffee the edge the longer the fight goes.

At any rate, I'm not saying Duffee should be any kind of favorite. All I'm saying is that the line looks great to me, and that he has a reasonable shot at winning.

I can't blame you for taking the bet, though i never would. I am an Ubereem believer, so he has me sucked in. I took some plays as well for the card though, mostly for action sake:Gegard Mousasi +215 over Kyotaro Fujimoto, K-1 rules: I had to take this. I have to think Gegard would not jump into this fight if he wasn't prepared for it. The guy was reaching a high point in his career and it got erased fast by King Mo. Not a big bet because i am not that familiar with Kyotaro, but i have to think Gegard can surprise here

Kazuyuki Miyata -115 over Caul Uno: I like Uno, but the guy is old at this point. Miyata is on a nice win streak, and frmo my memory he is nothing too special, but he is a veteran and i think he has a good shot here

Hiroyuki Takaya +155 over Bibiano Fernandes: I think Bibiano still gets a little too much credit. Takaya is a bit of a bad ###, and can run over Bibiano if he comes out guns blazing

Bang, Bang!!

 

[modogg]

Hiroyuki Takaya +155 over Bibiano Fernandes: I think Bibiano still gets a little too much credit. Takaya is a bit of a bad ###, and can run over Bibiano if he comes out guns blazing

I thought Takaya won their first fight.

So did I. I hope to see Takaya in the states at some point, a fight between him and Gilbert Melendez (since Strikeforce and Bellator seem destined to not allow Gilbert fight Eddie Alvarez, which really blows) seems to make an awful lot of sense. Off the top of my head, i can't think of anybody else for Gilbert to be matched up againt beside the 2 listed above, and both will be good fights. Now the problem is waiting and depending on Strikeforce to make those fights happen

 

[AhrnCityPahnder]

I didn't think it was possible for me to despise Aoki more than I did. That first round proved me wrong. That knockout was the the most satisfying I remember since the Hendo/Bisping fight.

And Sakuraba -- jeez. Time to hang it up. And lol at that post fight quote. "Sorry my ear came off"

Gross gifs and screencaps of ear carnage here: http://is.gd/jQWKI

 

[AhrnCityPahnder]

Gegard Mousasi +215

Kazuyuki Miyata -115

Hiroyuki Takaya +155

Bang, Bang!!

Good stuff, man. Grats!

 

[John Bender]

Posted this is the main wagering thread:

I'm locked in on Frankie Edgar EVEN tomorrow night.

A few reasons - Maynards the favorite, but every fight goes to decision. 2 of his last 3 fights were split decisions (including one to Nate Diaz) I feel like this is an obvious decision and the judges are inclined to score it for the champ all things being equal (might be silly I know, but we've seen this before where the champ seems to have more political capital in the judges eyes).

On top of this, Edgar has 2 straight 25 minute fights (both of his he obviously won), Maynard has never had a 25 minute fight in the UFC.

I just feel like this should be a Edgar -150 line and he's been a dog all along. I've talked myself into this one pretty strong.

 

[modogg]

I didn't think it was possible for me to despise Aoki more than I did. That first round proved me wrong. That knockout was the the most satisfying I remember since the Hendo/Bisping fight.

And Sakuraba -- jeez. Time to hang it up. And lol at that post fight quote. "Sorry my ear came off" :X

Gross gifs and screencaps of ear carnage here: http://is.gd/jQWKI

Wow, that is worse then the James Thompson ear when Kimbo Slice popped it. and here are most of the fights from last night. I know HDNet is replaying the show tonight at 9:00 as well:

http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2010/12/31/1905...-vs-todd-duffee

 

[sheerterror]

Alistair Overeem is the master of fading late into fights. Duffee's gas tank is suspect, but I actually give Duffee the edge the longer the fight goes.

At any rate, I'm not saying Duffee should be any kind of favorite. All I'm saying is that the line looks great to me, and that he has a reasonable shot at winning.

I can't blame you for taking the bet, though i never would. I am an Ubereem believer, so he has me sucked in. I took some plays as well for the card though, mostly for action sake:Gegard Mousasi +215 over Kyotaro Fujimoto, K-1 rules: I had to take this. I have to think Gegard would not jump into this fight if he wasn't prepared for it. The guy was reaching a high point in his career and it got erased fast by King Mo. Not a big bet because i am not that familiar with Kyotaro, but i have to think Gegard can surprise here

Kazuyuki Miyata -115 over Caul Uno: I like Uno, but the guy is old at this point. Miyata is on a nice win streak, and frmo my memory he is nothing too special, but he is a veteran and i think he has a good shot here

Hiroyuki Takaya +155 over Bibiano Fernandes: I think Bibiano still gets a little too much credit. Takaya is a bit of a bad ###, and can run over Bibiano if he comes out guns blazing

Bang, Bang!!

Awesome job Mo!

 

[Voice Of Reason]

Hiroyuki Takaya +155 over Bibiano Fernandes: I think Bibiano still gets a little too much credit. Takaya is a bit of a bad ###, and can run over Bibiano if he comes out guns blazing

I thought Takaya won their first fight.

So did I. I hope to see Takaya in the states at some point, a fight between him and Gilbert Melendez (since Strikeforce and Bellator seem destined to not allow Gilbert fight Eddie Alvarez, which really blows) seems to make an awful lot of sense. Off the top of my head, i can't think of anybody else for Gilbert to be matched up againt beside the 2 listed above, and both will be good fights. Now the problem is waiting and depending on Strikeforce to make those fights happen

Crusher

 

[Clayton Gray]

Alistair Overeem is the master of fading late into fights. Duffee's gas tank is suspect, but I actually give Duffee the edge the longer the fight goes.

At any rate, I'm not saying Duffee should be any kind of favorite. All I'm saying is that the line looks great to me, and that he has a reasonable shot at winning.

I can't blame you for taking the bet, though i never would. I am an Ubereem believer, so he has me sucked in. I took some plays as well for the card though, mostly for action sake:Gegard Mousasi +215 over Kyotaro Fujimoto, K-1 rules: I had to take this. I have to think Gegard would not jump into this fight if he wasn't prepared for it. The guy was reaching a high point in his career and it got erased fast by King Mo. Not a big bet because i am not that familiar with Kyotaro, but i have to think Gegard can surprise here

Kazuyuki Miyata -115 over Caul Uno: I like Uno, but the guy is old at this point. Miyata is on a nice win streak, and frmo my memory he is nothing too special, but he is a veteran and i think he has a good shot here

Hiroyuki Takaya +155 over Bibiano Fernandes: I think Bibiano still gets a little too much credit. Takaya is a bit of a bad ###, and can run over Bibiano if he comes out guns blazing

Bang, Bang!!

Sweetness!

 

[Sebowski]

Just made 2 parlays:

Leben

Silva

Diaz

Guida

Davis

$10 to win $271

and

the same without Davis $30 to win $251

Really love Leben and Guida.

Stann is Leben-lite. Leben will eat him alive in a brawl, and it will be a brawl. He is also light year's ahead on the ground.

Guida will not stand there calmly while Gomi measures him up like Griffin did. He will lean and tackle and never give an inch. Bad matchup for Gomi.

I also like Silva a decent amount, but I might be clouding myself on him since I have always been a fan. Not sure what Vera brings to the table that will nullify Silva. As long as he doesn't gas out again, he should handle Vera.

Really temtped to bet big on Leben at -160 though.

 

[Abrantes]

I'm on Guida and Edgar tonight. Should be a really fun show.

 

[Abrantes]

Also, predictions/gut feelings:

Edgar

Leben

Vera

Kim

Guida

Stephens

Grispi

Tavares

Brown

Roberts

Volkmann

 

[Bobcat10]

Here's what I have:

Volkmann

Tavares

Stephens

Guida

Diaz

Leben

Vera

Brown+Grispi

Guida+Grispi

Edgar

 

[modogg]

Prelims on Ion channel not in HD = . At least they have 3 figths on the prelims, and always catching the Phil Baroni fights is interesting

 

[Abrantes]

Awwww, I was rooting for the NYBA to pull this one out (as always).

 

[Cliff Clavin]

Link?

 

[modogg]

Link?

they are on the Ion channel right now, channel 305 on DirecTV

 

[Cliff Clavin]

Link?

they are on the Ion channel right now, channel 305 on DirecTV

Don't get that channel unfortunately.

 

[Bobcat10]

Link?

they are on the Ion channel right now, channel 305 on DirecTV

Don't get that channel unfortunately.

Live on the usual free spot.

 

[Cliff Clavin]

Link?

they are on the Ion channel right now, channel 305 on DirecTV

Don't get that channel unfortunately.

Live on the usual free spot.

Can I get a pm? Never streamed it before.

 

[Bobcat10]

Link?

they are on the Ion channel right now, channel 305 on DirecTV

Don't get that channel unfortunately.

Live on the usual free spot.

Can I get a pm? Never streamed it before.

sent

 

[Dreamer]

What did Phil Baroni's back tattoo say?

 

[Bobcat10]

ooof

 

[AhrnCityPahnder]

Jeremy Stephens makes a lot of people happy after having a lot of people worried in here

 

[Abrantes]

Jeremy Stephens makes a lot of people happy after having a lot of people worried in here

No doubt. Pretty awesome way to do it.

 

[modogg]

Jeremy Stephens makes a lot of people happy after having a lot of people worried in here

Marcus Davis looked a lot better then i expected him to. The fact that he stumbled Stephens twice was something i did not see happening. very happy to escape with the win there, usually happens the other way. I wonder where this puts Davis though. He has a very good showing, so i don't think the UFC dumps him. He looked good, and I would like to see him get back in there soon (the second shot after the knockdown was kind of brutal so i don't know if that will happen) and see how he does against some of the WEC guys coming in. if Donald Cerrone wasn't fighting Cole Miller I would have liked to see Davis-Cowboy

 

[Abrantes]

Guida is so ridiculous. Love rooting for him, and great to see him pull out another big win.

 

[Abrantes]

UFC Production crew is always a riot.

 

[AhrnCityPahnder]

Yes, Kim.

"You name is Stun Gun".

that's nice.

/pat pat

 

[Abrantes]

Also, it's fun watching this with the Brazilian commentary. They got two big jiu-jitsu guys doing the play-by-play, and while I had it 29-28 for Kim due to the takedowns, control and work in the first two rounds, they scored it 10-10, 10-9 Diaz and 10-9 Diaz based on trying more stuff while on the bottom. Valid point, but good or bad, it's not how the UFC judges ever score it.

 

[Abrantes]

Brandon Vera would have a better career if forgot everything about clinching on the fence.

 

[modogg]

Brandon Vera would have a better career if forgot everything about clinching on the fence.

He is an interesting one to figure out where he went so wrong. Maybe he was just so much faster then other HWY's when he was there. I do like Silva getting a little feisty with Vera, this will let us see what kind of fighter Vera is now with a little fire in him

 

[Abrantes]

Damn, son. Get surgery.

 

[Possum]

good lord Vera's nose looked rough

 

[BroncoFreak_2K3]

<_<

 

[AhrnCityPahnder]

Vera got embarrassed. I expected him to have trouble with TSilva but not like that. Jeez.

 

[Abrantes]

Damnnnnnn, that went pretty much like I expected, only with the other guy winning. <_<