gianmarco
Footballguy
I can see that as I'm gonna need to get lucky in week 5 for sure. Although no chance LHUCKS outscores me that week.
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Ultimate Survivor - League 1 (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter EBF
- Start date
Couch Potato
Footballguy
Looks like 120 is a relatively safe number to hope for each week.I'm surprised this projection has me eliminated before the byes. Although Fitz faces OAK (Asomugha) and Ronnie Brown faces the Jets D, I thought I had a number of pretty good week 3 matchups.
Food for thought -- if the last 4 standing in your prediction drafted by following Dodds' projections and the Draft Dominator to the letter, and then you used that same model to determine who survives, of course that's what will fall out of it. Other projections will of course produce other results, and I didn't lock myself into any one source. I used my tarot cards one round, my crystal ball another, then my Ouija board. I even looked over EBF's shoulder one round but decided to forget that idea since they were all rookies...
And PLEASE don't let me go out the same week as MisfitBlodes after I just picked on him about his QB / DT situation. Nooooooooooooo!
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Couch Potato
Footballguy
I think that week your 6 D/STs give up lots of D/ST scores to 6 other D/STs that you didn't draft, and it's those 6 D/STs on other rosters that eek you out.MisfitBlondes said:
Not Sure
Footballguy
I love this strategy. You can never have enough TEs and DSTs.MisfitBlondes said:QB
Brees, Drew NOS
RB
Bush, Michael OAK
Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC
Spiller, C.J. BUF
Wells, Chris ARI
WR
Bowe, Dwayne KCC
Driver, Donald GBP
Heyward-Bey, Darrius OAK
Marshall, Brandon MIA
Meachem, Robert NOS
Robinson, Laurent STL
Williams, Mike TBB
TE
Davis, Fred WAS
Lewis, Marcedes JAC
Nelson, Shawn BUF
Schouman, Derek BUF
Watson, Ben CLE
PK
Hartley, Garrett NOS
D
Browns, Cleveland CLE
Cardinals, Arizona ARI
Falcons, Atlanta ATL
Jaguars, Jacksonville JAC
Lions, Detroit DET
Raiders, Oakland OAK
Will Grant
Prince of Insufficient Light
I can tell you for sure that I tweaked the hell out of my projections and took my TE and DEF WELL before the Dominator was telling me to. My second QB was well before the dominator told me - I used it more to track who took what and adjusted my picks based on what I projected the needs were of the teams around me. I ran 3-4 mocks with the dominator and ended up with Dallas Clark available to me in the 3rd round every time.... that didn't happen when Gates was going in the first round.
Tau837
Footballguy
Regarding the food for thought, I did not draft according to Dodds' projections. For one thing, I don't know how to really set up DD to deal with atypical league formats like this one, or Anarchy leagues to name another example. I do look at its recommendations but moreso to see its groupings of top players by position to help me decide which position to take and which player from among the top group remaining at that position.
That said, it is projecting only a few points separating those that got eliminated from those who survived each week, for the most part. So it could easily turn out quite different, even if Dodds' projetions are reasonably on the mark.
MrPhoenix
Ron Paul Soldier
Ok, I'll give my team a shot:
Bradford, Sam STL QB 9
Cutler, Jay CHI QB 8
Sanchez, Mark NYJ QB 7
I normally don't draft QBs high. To me, I feel I can get value later on after I stock up on RBs and WRs. So I waited and I was basically left with Cutler as the only real QB1 left. I was happy it worked out that way because I'm very high on Cutler's ability to thrive in the Martz offense. Plus, no one gives the Bears WRs any love and I think there's real potential there. I feel Sanchez will mature in year 2 and he's got some nice targets to throw to (even better in Week 5....which doesn't help me much). And Bradford.....well, that was a homer pick.
Greene, Shonn NYJ RB 7
Lynch, Marshawn BUF RB 6
Peterson, Adrian MIN RB (P) 4
Smith, Kevin DET RB (P) 7
Tate, Ben HOU RB 7
Williams, DeAngelo CAR RB (P) 6
Yes, I took the big dog at #2 in ADP. And yes, I took a guy that has a Week 4 bye week. So what's a guy to do in this situation? Get two capable RBs in DeAngelo and Greene to fill the Week 4 void. Other guys are depth that I'm not COMPLETELY scared ####less if I have to play them in an injury situation.
Britt, Kenny TEN WR (P) 9
Bryant, Antonio CIN WR (Q) 6
Colston, Marques NOS WR (P) 10
Edwards, Braylon NYJ WR 7
Harvin, Percy MIN WR (P) 4
Holt, Torry NEP WR 5
Sims-Walker, Mike JAC WR (P) 9
Thomas, Devin WAS WR 9
I like my depth here generally. Sims-Walker, Harvin, Edwards, and Colston are a pretty good rotation, IMO. Thomas COULD be too. Bryant and Holt are roster fillers.
Boss, Kevin NYG TE (P) 8
Fells, Daniel STL TE 9
Gresham, Jermaine CIN TE 6
For some reason, drafters went bonkers taking TE's early. Did I wait too long to properly address this? Yes. Boss might be passable and Gresham is a wildcard. Fells is a deep sleeper, but as was with Bradford, he was a homer pick.
Folk, Nick NYJ PK 7
Longwell, Ryan MIN PK 4
Longwell is great. He also has a Week 4 bye. Enter Folk. Nuff said.
Bears, Chicago CHI Def 8
Dolphins, Miami MIA Def 5
Miami will be my main squad until the Bears fill in at Week 5. Week-to-week starter could also depend on matchups. Not too worried here.
Overall: Some worry areas (QB and TE), but those were by design as I like to have security at RB and WR. I tend to agree with the sentiment that this team could be a boom-bust type. I'm confident that Cutler can put my mind at ease, though. I just need Eli and Boss to become BFFs between now and Week 1.
Bradford, Sam STL QB 9
Cutler, Jay CHI QB 8
Sanchez, Mark NYJ QB 7
I normally don't draft QBs high. To me, I feel I can get value later on after I stock up on RBs and WRs. So I waited and I was basically left with Cutler as the only real QB1 left. I was happy it worked out that way because I'm very high on Cutler's ability to thrive in the Martz offense. Plus, no one gives the Bears WRs any love and I think there's real potential there. I feel Sanchez will mature in year 2 and he's got some nice targets to throw to (even better in Week 5....which doesn't help me much). And Bradford.....well, that was a homer pick.
Greene, Shonn NYJ RB 7
Lynch, Marshawn BUF RB 6
Peterson, Adrian MIN RB (P) 4
Smith, Kevin DET RB (P) 7
Tate, Ben HOU RB 7
Williams, DeAngelo CAR RB (P) 6
Yes, I took the big dog at #2 in ADP. And yes, I took a guy that has a Week 4 bye week. So what's a guy to do in this situation? Get two capable RBs in DeAngelo and Greene to fill the Week 4 void. Other guys are depth that I'm not COMPLETELY scared ####less if I have to play them in an injury situation.
Britt, Kenny TEN WR (P) 9
Bryant, Antonio CIN WR (Q) 6
Colston, Marques NOS WR (P) 10
Edwards, Braylon NYJ WR 7
Harvin, Percy MIN WR (P) 4
Holt, Torry NEP WR 5
Sims-Walker, Mike JAC WR (P) 9
Thomas, Devin WAS WR 9
I like my depth here generally. Sims-Walker, Harvin, Edwards, and Colston are a pretty good rotation, IMO. Thomas COULD be too. Bryant and Holt are roster fillers.
Boss, Kevin NYG TE (P) 8
Fells, Daniel STL TE 9
Gresham, Jermaine CIN TE 6
For some reason, drafters went bonkers taking TE's early. Did I wait too long to properly address this? Yes. Boss might be passable and Gresham is a wildcard. Fells is a deep sleeper, but as was with Bradford, he was a homer pick.
Folk, Nick NYJ PK 7
Longwell, Ryan MIN PK 4
Longwell is great. He also has a Week 4 bye. Enter Folk. Nuff said.
Bears, Chicago CHI Def 8
Dolphins, Miami MIA Def 5
Miami will be my main squad until the Bears fill in at Week 5. Week-to-week starter could also depend on matchups. Not too worried here.
Overall: Some worry areas (QB and TE), but those were by design as I like to have security at RB and WR. I tend to agree with the sentiment that this team could be a boom-bust type. I'm confident that Cutler can put my mind at ease, though. I just need Eli and Boss to become BFFs between now and Week 1.
EBF
Footballguy
Okay, it's a lock. I'm definitely winning this thing.
gianmarco
Footballguy
Uh oh. Seems I've lost Hamilton. As sad as it sounds, I may be done for.I didn't get to do mine yet, so here goes:
I got to pick from the 8th spot. Not really a fantastic spot but I found that I was able to land some decent value from there.
QB
Rodgers -- 2.5
Orton --16.5
Roethlisberger 12.5
Yes, yes, I'm the one who drafted a worthless player in the 12th round. I thought I had selected Sanchez and didn't even pay attention. Either way, even in the 12th round, I'm not that particularly worried about it. As for my QBs that will actually play, getting Rodgers in the 2nd round was robbery, IMO. No bye week issues and I actually considered him in the 1st. I have him ranked as the #1 QB and if he repeats his consistency from last year, he should give me a sizeable advantage over all but 4-5 teams each week. Orton in the 16th for cheap insurance is enough for me. That was the other benefit of Rodgers in that I honestly had a "set it and forget it" mentality and didn't even bother looking at QBs until after the 10th round.
RB
McCoy -- 5.8
McFadden -- 9.8
Ricky Williams -- 10.5
Maroney -- 11.8
Julius Jones -- 21.8
Lynell Hamilton -- 23.8
Bernard Scott -- 24.5
This is where I waited and went for quantity instead of quality. Since we only need to start 2 RBs, I wanted to get one guy I felt comfortable with in ppr format and then a bunch of bodies for a RBBC for RB#2. McCoy fit the bill for that in the end of the 5th round. I'm not a huge fan of his in general for dynasty formats, but for the first few weeks of the season, he should get a lot of work and catch a ton of balls. I then kept finding other value after him so I continued to wait. The rest of the RBs are far from impressive but I only really need one of those other guys to step in on a weekly basis and get me ~10 pts for me to feel comfortable. I've got 3 guys that should easily get enough touches to start the year to accomplish that even though it won't be consistent from any one guy. Hamilton was a gem in the 23rd as he should be good for 2-3 TDs in those first 5 weeks and will likely fill in once. The main concern is that both Ricky and Maroney have a bye in week 5 so that means Hamilton and/or McFadden will HAVE to produce that week. It's actually the biggest concern for my team, IMO.
WR
Randy Moss -- 1.8
Sidney Rice -- 4.5
Garcon -- 6.5
Mike Wallace -- 7.8
Massaquoi -- 13.8
James Jones -- 14.5
Earl Bennett -- 18.5
I love this group. Sidney Rice and the hip is a bit of a gamble but I feel confident enough in him playing that he was easily worth it in the 4th round. Loved Garcon in the 6th and Wallace in the 7th. I'm not a huge Massaquoi fan, but in the 13th as the likely WR1, I'm just looking for 1 or 2 big weeks. James Jones as the 3rd WR in a potent passing offense with Driver coming off surgery is a nice upside pick and Bennett in the 18th in a Martz system where WR3/WR4 can go off on any day was also a nice upside pick late. Bye issues in this group are Rice in week 4 and Moss/Wallace in week 5. Losing only Rice in week 4 shouldn't be an issue, but that week 5 bye is gonna be tricky again without 2 main scorers. But, again, with Rice/Garcon, I only need one of the other 3 guys to step up with a 10 pt week.
TE
Witten -- 3.8
Carlson -- 8.5
Once again, like QB, I wanted to get the cream of the crop here with 1.5 ppr. Even if Witten doesn't score many TDs, his consistently high reception total makes him a goldmine in this format. I know Dez is in the mix now, but for the first few weeks of the season, I expect Witten to continue at his previous rate. Carlson in the 8th as a 2nd option with this scoring was too good to pass up for a middling RB. I think he's going to be a frequent flex contributor. Both have byes, one in week 4 and one in week 5, but the pair should do just fine until then.
PK
Bironas -- 17.8
Janikowski -- 20.5
Hanson -- 22.5
3 kickers capable of big pt totals on any given week and no bye issues. Particularly Bironas has been a high scoring kicker the last few years. Very content with this group
Def
Saints -- 15.8
Broncos -- 19.8
Nothing exciting. I don't expect the Saints to repeat their fantastic fantasy performance last year but they should be serviceable. Combined, I like what they have. Denver faces Jax/Seattle the first 2 weeks. Then NO faces Atlanta/Carolina at home and Arizona away in week 5. I'm fine with that. Nowhere near the best in the league, but hopefully won't put me at a big disadvantage. With the scoring being skewed toward turnovers, I like the fact that Denver was a top team in fumble recoveries and the Saints in INTs last year.
All in all, I'll be surprised if I don't make it to week 5. Week 5 is definitely going to be a major test as I'll be missing Maroney, Ricky Williams, Randy Moss, Mike Wallace, and Carlson. Still, with Rodgers/McCoy/Rice/Garcon/Witten as "surefire" contributors, I'll need 3 players out of the remainders to step up that week out of McFadden/Hamilton/Scott/Massaquoi/Jones/Bennett. I think being elite at QB/TE as well as being in the top 3-4 at WR is enough to cover for my deficiencies at RB and D/ST.
As always, any and all comments welcome so have at it
LHUCKS
Footballguy
Pretty happy with this group...should have no problem meeting league QB avg. with this duo.
Gore will be a beast the first five games...write it down. Knowshon was a safe pick at RB#2 which is what I was looking for. Slaton could bust a few receptions for TDs.
The strength of my team, likely the best WR group in the entire league...guys like Edelman, Chambers, Naanee, Cribbs and Crayton were absolute steals in this format...silly kids trying to step to the LHUCKS.
Meh, not great, might lose some points here but it wont matter...my WR scoring will be off the charts.
I'll easily exceed the league average for DEF scoring...thank you to whats his face for drafting 6 Defenses.At PK Just wanted to grab guys that would score me points. Should be among the leaders for PK scoring as well.The way I see it....I outscore everybody at WR, Flex, Def, PK...probably tread water at QB and RB....lose some points at TE.Game Over...I win, you lose.
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Tau837
Footballguy
Well, so much for those predictions... looks like MisfitBlondes and Mr. Phoenix are eliminated in week 1.
Tau837
Footballguy
Will Grant out this week, and if it was a double elimination week Pasquino would also be gone.
Tau837
Footballguy
So it appears EBF and Couch Potato are out this week. DD has mixed up the order but gotten 4 of the 5 eliminations right so far.Bye weeks begin in week 4, and my team has none, so I'm hoping that will help offset my team's losses of Grant, Avery, and Larry Johnson.Will Grant out this week, and if it was a double elimination week Pasquino would also be gone.
Detroit Fan 365
Footballguy
Well if DD is right I'm gone this week.So it appears EBF and Couch Potato are out this week. DD has mixed up the order but gotten 4 of the 5 eliminations right so far.Bye weeks begin in week 4, and my team has none, so I'm hoping that will help offset my team's losses of Grant, Avery, and Larry Johnson.Will Grant out this week, and if it was a double elimination week Pasquino would also be gone.
Tau837
Footballguy
Yeah... and you've had VJax out too.No excuses...I have Moreno out.
I've had Grant and Avery out from the start. 
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//Lhucks// Just trying to give you ladies a chance //Lhucks//Yeah... and you've had VJax out too.No excuses...I have Moreno out.
Tau837
Footballguy
I'm not sure DetroitFan is safe. It's possible both you and packertazman will go over 140.
Tau837
Footballguy
I'm surprised my team has done well given these RBs and WRs:
Mike Bell
Ryan Grant
Brandon Jackson
Brandon Jacobs
Larry Johnson
Darren Sproles
Jonathan Stewart
Donnie Avery
Steve Breaston
Craig Davis
Early Doucet
Calvin Johnson
Mario Manningham
Hakeem Nicks
Brian Robiskie
I got 8 zeros out of that group this week and had to take a zero in my final lineup at WR. But fortunately the rest of my team has been good enough to make up for it. I hope I can survive this group one more week.
Mike Bell
Ryan Grant
Brandon Jackson
Brandon Jacobs
Larry Johnson
Darren Sproles
Jonathan Stewart
Donnie Avery
Steve Breaston
Craig Davis
Early Doucet
Calvin Johnson
Mario Manningham
Hakeem Nicks
Brian Robiskie
I got 8 zeros out of that group this week and had to take a zero in my final lineup at WR. But fortunately the rest of my team has been good enough to make up for it. I hope I can survive this group one more week.
gianmarco
Footballguy
Then again, I'm now complete toast next week:
McCoy -- broken rib
McFadden -- hammy
Ricky -- bye
Hamilton -- IR
Let's go Maroney and Bernard Scott (my only RBs)!!
Garcon -- Out
Rice -- Out
R. Moss -- bye
Wallace -- bye
Let's go Massaquoi, James Jones, E. Bennett (my only WRs)!!
Carlson -- bye
Let's go Witten!!
Oh well, it was fun
McCoy -- broken rib
McFadden -- hammy
Ricky -- bye
Hamilton -- IR
Let's go Maroney and Bernard Scott (my only RBs)!!
Garcon -- Out
Rice -- Out
R. Moss -- bye
Wallace -- bye
Let's go Massaquoi, James Jones, E. Bennett (my only WRs)!!
Carlson -- bye
Let's go Witten!!
Oh well, it was fun
Tau837
Footballguy
Wow, I feel a bit better about my chances now...Then again, I'm now complete toast next week:McCoy -- broken ribMcFadden -- hammyRicky -- byeHamilton -- IRLet's go Maroney and Bernard Scott (my only RBs)!!Garcon -- OutRice -- OutR. Moss -- byeWallace -- byeLet's go Massaquoi, James Jones, E. Bennett (my only WRs)!!Carlson -- byeLet's go Witten!!Oh well, it was fun
Detroit Fan 365
Footballguy
6 teams left:
Duckboy
Detroit Fan 365
Just Win Baby
Jeff
LHUCKS
Gianmarco
Its been fun, but I said I'd be eliminated week 5 and still believe that.
Duckboy
Detroit Fan 365
Just Win Baby
Jeff
LHUCKS
Gianmarco
Its been fun, but I said I'd be eliminated week 5 and still believe that.
gianmarco
Footballguy
Well, things may be looking up!!!Moss's trade now makes him available to me.Garcon is practicing and Collie out.McCoy might actually play.I actually MIGHT have a shot!!!11!!Wow, I feel a bit better about my chances now...Then again, I'm now complete toast next week:McCoy -- broken ribMcFadden -- hammyRicky -- byeHamilton -- IRLet's go Maroney and Bernard Scott (my only RBs)!!Garcon -- OutRice -- OutR. Moss -- byeWallace -- byeLet's go Massaquoi, James Jones, E. Bennett (my only WRs)!!Carlson -- byeLet's go Witten!!Oh well, it was fun
gianmarco
Footballguy
Looking like Jeff, JWB, and Duck have their spots locked up.1 spot left for me, LHUCKS, and Detroit6 teams left
Detroit Fan 365
Footballguy
If I was a betting man and I am I'd say you are the 4th team,unless Favre comes out completely plays out of his mind throws to everyone but Moss.gianmarco said:Looking like Jeff, JWB, and Duck have their spots locked up.1 spot left for me, LHUCKS, and Detroit6 teams left
gianmarco
Footballguy
Well, you have a 13 pt lead. It'll be Moss -1.4/McCoy vs. Favre -7.7Pretty darn close.If I was a betting man and I am I'd say you are the 4th team,unless Favre comes out completely plays out of his mind throws to everyone but Moss.gianmarco said:Looking like Jeff, JWB, and Duck have their spots locked up.1 spot left for me, LHUCKS, and Detroit6 teams left
Detroit Fan 365
Footballguy
It won't be close, Moss is going to go off tomorrow, you'll have the lead going into tomorrow.Well, you have a 13 pt lead. It'll be Moss -1.4/McCoy vs. Favre -7.7Pretty darn close.If I was a betting man and I am I'd say you are the 4th team,unless Favre comes out completely plays out of his mind throws to everyone but Moss.gianmarco said:Looking like Jeff, JWB, and Duck have their spots locked up.1 spot left for me, LHUCKS, and Detroit6 teams left
gianmarco
Footballguy
This will be interesting. Down by 2. Moss -1.4 vs. Favre -7.7It won't be close, Moss is going to go off tomorrow, you'll have the lead going into tomorrow.Well, you have a 13 pt lead. It'll be Moss -1.4/McCoy vs. Favre -7.7Pretty darn close.If I was a betting man and I am I'd say you are the 4th team,unless Favre comes out completely plays out of his mind throws to everyone but Moss.gianmarco said:Looking like Jeff, JWB, and Duck have their spots locked up.1 spot left for me, LHUCKS, and Detroit6 teams left
Detroit Fan 365
Footballguy
No dude you won, good luck next round, just hope I can try again next year.
Detroit Fan 365
Footballguy
wow, that was a good game, but I knew I'd be eliminated in week 5 and I was .1 pts congrats to Jeff, JWB, Duckboy, and Gianmarco. This was a lot of fun and an exciting finish, hopefully one of you four will win, again congrats.
gianmarco
Footballguy
I'm absolutely shocked. Unfortunately was working and didn't even get to follow along. When I pulled up the game stats and saw what Favre did I thought it was over. I got incredibly lucky, particularly with the trade. Sorry, DF.
Tau837
Footballguy
DD turned out to be pretty accurate on this, correctly predicting 3 of the 4 teams to advance.ETA: And it couldn't have predicted the Moss trade.
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