Did you go out of your way to get ousted?Go big or go home. See you all from the winners circle.
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Ultimate Survivor - Leg 1 - League 8 (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Dirty Weasel
- Start date
I don't view my week 4 byes as that much of a problem, to be honest. I think, if I make it to week 4, I'm likely going to be competing against a lot of Colts and Pats. I think the Manning owner, the Brady owner, the Moss owner, the Addai owner, and the Wayne owner all have a very good chance of making it to week 4... and I think even if I lose both Welker and Engram, I'm still going to be in much better shape than any of those 5 teams. Losing two players at one position on the same week is a handicap, but given the sheer volume of studs who are going to be sitting out that week, I don't think losing my two solid-but-unspectacular receivers is going to have me operating at a net disadvantage against the field. And since those are the only two byes I have to deal with in the first 5 weeks, I'm very happy with my current bye situation. Especially because only one team gets eliminated in week 4.Anthony Borbely said:
As far as the Denver strategy... in terms of pick cost, it's almost entirely negligible. I mean, according to the pick value calculators, I essentially locked up RB1 Denver for an early 5th round pick. Granted, I think pick value calculators undervalue late picks in a best ball setup, but even if it's the cost of a 4th round pick, that's still quite a bargain. I'm going to state up front that I firmly believe that last year was an aberration that can be ignored, simply due to the demonstrably low number of rush attempts. Look back to 2006, then... what could be a worst-case scenario for Denver this year (the dreaded RBBC). Mike Bell and Tatum Bell combined to produce 12 10+ point fantasy games (including one week where both RBs eclipsed the mark), as well as a 9.9 point week. Jamal Lewis, a guy who finished last year as RB6, only had 10 10+ point games. The Bells in 2006 also came close to Lewis last year in terms of 15+ point games (6 for Lewis, 5 for Bell/Bell), and didn't trail too badly in 20+ point games (4 to 2) or 25+ point games (3 to 1). And this is comparing what I view as a reasonable projection for Denver vs. the #6 RB in the entire NFL last year. Not too shabby for the equivalent of a 4th round pick, eh?Even if you don't think last year was an aberration... Denver's running game, in a HORRIFIC season for their standards, yielded 10 10+ point games, 5 15+ point games, and a 20+ point game. And as far as upside goes, look no further than 2005- 14 10+ point games ( 
), 10 15+ point games ( ), and a whopping 7 20+ point games ( ). Not too shabby for what was essentially a 4th-5th round pick. Especially when you consider that I'm completely injury-proof in the process. Between MJD and Denver, I don't think I'll have a problem fielding two starter-caliber RBs every week, even if Norwood is a total crapshoot.
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I see you chose "go home". An interesting choice, and not the one that I personally would have made, but...
jurb26
Footballguy
I'm nearly certain I'll be there come week 4. The rest of you guys....I see you chose "go home". An interesting choice, and not the one that I personally would have made, but...
I see you chose "go home". An interesting choice, and not the one that I personally would have made, but...
evilempire
Footballguy
Since the Browns are playing Cincinnati that week I'm pretty confident.So, who of us didn't shy away from guys with bye weeks:
evilempire - Three of his top 5, and six overall. You may be
Wayne, Reggie IND WR - 4 2.07
Edwards, Braylon CLE WR - 5 3.06
Brown, Ronnie MIA RB - 4 5.06
Jackson, Chad NEP WR - 4 15.06
Pennington, Chad NYJ QB - 5 19.06
Hanson, Jason DET PK - 4 20.07
nittanylion
Footballguy
Draft Slot 7: A Mixed Bag...
Matt Schaub / Sage Rosenfels - 8 (Week 7 vs Detroit)
Kurt Warner - 7 (Week 8 @ Carolina)
Despite QB's getting 6/-1, it was my intention to nail down a QBBC rather than take a Stud with an early Selection. Took Schaub in Rd 8 as one component, but other circumstances led me to select at other Positions in the subsequent Rounds that stiffed me on some other QB's I wanted to team Schaub up with. I took Warner with Leinart still on the board, but waited too long to land Leinart. My last option with some upside was Trent Edwards, but I missed out on him as well, and I couldn't bring myself to take any of the weak QB's out of need. It was my intention to take Rosenfels towards the end of the Draft anyway, as insurance for Schaub. I'm very high on the Houston Offense this Season, and I'm confident Rosenfels can run it efficiently in a pinch. Expectations are high in Arizona this year, and Leinart has some maturing to do, and he's not a Draft Pick of the current Staff...I think Warner provides the Cards a better chance to win now, and by Week 8, either Leinart is getting it done, or Warner's taking Starter's snaps. I'm gambling here in the wrong position to do so. IF I had gotten Leinart, it was my intent to balance the Arizona early season schedule vs the Texans late season schedule, so to have a good chance of survival, it would help a TON if Warner was the starter right out of the gates. One thing's for sure - Houston is going to have to do PLENTY of throwing the football to win early on, which might serve to will carry the day at the Position.
Joseph Addai / Dominic Rhodes - 4 (Week 9 vs New England)
Jonathan Stewart - 9 (Week 4 vs Atlanta)
Felix Jones - 10 (Week 4 vs Washington, Week 9 at NY Giants)
Deuce McAllister / Pierre Thomas - 9 (Week 4 vs San Francisco)
I think I've got Addai's Week 4 bye covered with this group. Landing McAllister/Thomas was critical enough for me to pass on some of the QB's I wound up missing out on. If you're going to be weak in one Position, you have to try and make up for it elsewhere. Tough matchups in Week 9 for Addai and FJones, though. Wanted Jones because he's what I call a 'Spiker' - the kind of Player I like in Survivor/Best Ball Formats. You give up consistency for the periodic statistical 'spikes' that can jack up a weekly box score.
Randy Moss - 4 (Week 5 @ San Francisco)
Torry Holt - 5 (Week 4 vs Buffalo)
Lee Evans - 6 (Week 4 @ St Louis, Week 5 @ Arizona)
Santana Moss - 10 (Week 4 at Dallas, Week 5 at Philadelphia)
DJ Hackett - 9 (Week 4 @ Atlanta, Week 5 vs Kansas City)
Kevin Walter - 8 (Week 4 at Jacksonville, Week 5 vs Indianapolis)
David Patten - 9 (Week 4 vs San Francisco, Week 5 vs Minnesota)
WR defines some of the strategies I was trying to employ in this Draft. First, regardless of Bye Weeks, let value guide my early selections, then find 'insurance' in the later Rounds to supplement the early Byes. Addai, RMoss and Holt were my first 3 Picks, despite their early Byes. Have to get out of the 1st Leg though. Evans and SMoss are two more 'Spikers'. Evans traditionally gets a late start, but I'm optimistic that Offense is going to come firing right out of the gates, and he has some tasty matchups the weeks that RMoss and Holt are off. SMoss is more of a late Season tool. Hackett, Walter and Patten were attempts by me to land 'pairs' of #2/3 WR playing opposite a Stud, but I was unable to complete the pairs in all 3 cases. (Hackett/Muhammed, Walter/JJones, Patten/Meachem/Henderson). At least I was able to land the guys I think have the most upside, and there are some decent matchups build into the schedule.
Owen Daniels - 8 (Week 7 vs Detroit)
Marcedes Lewis - 7 (Week 8 vs Cleveland)
Feeling pretty good about the TE group, what there is of it...would have liked to have landed a 3rd, to insure against injury. If 'Daniels Day Lewis' stays healthy, between the two of them, I think I have a very consistent week-to-week option here that won't lose me this thing.
Adam Vinatieri - 4 (Week 5 @ San Francisco)
Josh Brown -5 (Week 4 vs Buffalo)
Again, took a Stud with an early Bye, and backed him up with a Player that should be productive enough not to lose me Week 4, which has only 1 Elimination.
Buccaneers - 10 (Week 5 at Denver)
NY Jets - 5 (Week 10 vs St Louis)
Got a little preoccupied with building depth at other Positions. Bucs were one of the last above-average D/ST's, NYJets have some upside...certainly the best of what was left in Rd 19...
Overall, I tried to design this Team to 'bully' it's way through the 1st Leg behind my core of Addai and Randy Moss. I'm cautiously optimistic about Weeks 1-4, with Eliminations going 2-1-2-1, and I'm only missing Holt and the NYJets D in Week 5 when those final two get kicked off the island...
...all my Offensive Players come from the following Teams: Patriots, Colts, Rams, Bills, Cardinals, Jaguars, Texans, Panthers, Saints, Redskins and Cowboys - all Offenses I think will be extremely productive, or with significant situational upside. More aggregate stats, more chance for quality performances.
Ultimately, my failed gamble at QB is what will likely lead to my possible undoing, and I admit there's a good chance of that happening. If I can survive that, and not suffer an injury at TE, I think I have a pretty good shot at this thing.
Best of Luck to everyone! Fire away!
Matt Schaub / Sage Rosenfels - 8 (Week 7 vs Detroit)
Kurt Warner - 7 (Week 8 @ Carolina)
Despite QB's getting 6/-1, it was my intention to nail down a QBBC rather than take a Stud with an early Selection. Took Schaub in Rd 8 as one component, but other circumstances led me to select at other Positions in the subsequent Rounds that stiffed me on some other QB's I wanted to team Schaub up with. I took Warner with Leinart still on the board, but waited too long to land Leinart. My last option with some upside was Trent Edwards, but I missed out on him as well, and I couldn't bring myself to take any of the weak QB's out of need. It was my intention to take Rosenfels towards the end of the Draft anyway, as insurance for Schaub. I'm very high on the Houston Offense this Season, and I'm confident Rosenfels can run it efficiently in a pinch. Expectations are high in Arizona this year, and Leinart has some maturing to do, and he's not a Draft Pick of the current Staff...I think Warner provides the Cards a better chance to win now, and by Week 8, either Leinart is getting it done, or Warner's taking Starter's snaps. I'm gambling here in the wrong position to do so. IF I had gotten Leinart, it was my intent to balance the Arizona early season schedule vs the Texans late season schedule, so to have a good chance of survival, it would help a TON if Warner was the starter right out of the gates. One thing's for sure - Houston is going to have to do PLENTY of throwing the football to win early on, which might serve to will carry the day at the Position.
Joseph Addai / Dominic Rhodes - 4 (Week 9 vs New England)
Jonathan Stewart - 9 (Week 4 vs Atlanta)
Felix Jones - 10 (Week 4 vs Washington, Week 9 at NY Giants)
Deuce McAllister / Pierre Thomas - 9 (Week 4 vs San Francisco)
I think I've got Addai's Week 4 bye covered with this group. Landing McAllister/Thomas was critical enough for me to pass on some of the QB's I wound up missing out on. If you're going to be weak in one Position, you have to try and make up for it elsewhere. Tough matchups in Week 9 for Addai and FJones, though. Wanted Jones because he's what I call a 'Spiker' - the kind of Player I like in Survivor/Best Ball Formats. You give up consistency for the periodic statistical 'spikes' that can jack up a weekly box score.
Randy Moss - 4 (Week 5 @ San Francisco)
Torry Holt - 5 (Week 4 vs Buffalo)
Lee Evans - 6 (Week 4 @ St Louis, Week 5 @ Arizona)
Santana Moss - 10 (Week 4 at Dallas, Week 5 at Philadelphia)
DJ Hackett - 9 (Week 4 @ Atlanta, Week 5 vs Kansas City)
Kevin Walter - 8 (Week 4 at Jacksonville, Week 5 vs Indianapolis)
David Patten - 9 (Week 4 vs San Francisco, Week 5 vs Minnesota)
WR defines some of the strategies I was trying to employ in this Draft. First, regardless of Bye Weeks, let value guide my early selections, then find 'insurance' in the later Rounds to supplement the early Byes. Addai, RMoss and Holt were my first 3 Picks, despite their early Byes. Have to get out of the 1st Leg though. Evans and SMoss are two more 'Spikers'. Evans traditionally gets a late start, but I'm optimistic that Offense is going to come firing right out of the gates, and he has some tasty matchups the weeks that RMoss and Holt are off. SMoss is more of a late Season tool. Hackett, Walter and Patten were attempts by me to land 'pairs' of #2/3 WR playing opposite a Stud, but I was unable to complete the pairs in all 3 cases. (Hackett/Muhammed, Walter/JJones, Patten/Meachem/Henderson). At least I was able to land the guys I think have the most upside, and there are some decent matchups build into the schedule.
Owen Daniels - 8 (Week 7 vs Detroit)
Marcedes Lewis - 7 (Week 8 vs Cleveland)
Feeling pretty good about the TE group, what there is of it...would have liked to have landed a 3rd, to insure against injury. If 'Daniels Day Lewis' stays healthy, between the two of them, I think I have a very consistent week-to-week option here that won't lose me this thing.
Adam Vinatieri - 4 (Week 5 @ San Francisco)
Josh Brown -5 (Week 4 vs Buffalo)
Again, took a Stud with an early Bye, and backed him up with a Player that should be productive enough not to lose me Week 4, which has only 1 Elimination.
Buccaneers - 10 (Week 5 at Denver)
NY Jets - 5 (Week 10 vs St Louis)
Got a little preoccupied with building depth at other Positions. Bucs were one of the last above-average D/ST's, NYJets have some upside...certainly the best of what was left in Rd 19...
Overall, I tried to design this Team to 'bully' it's way through the 1st Leg behind my core of Addai and Randy Moss. I'm cautiously optimistic about Weeks 1-4, with Eliminations going 2-1-2-1, and I'm only missing Holt and the NYJets D in Week 5 when those final two get kicked off the island...
...all my Offensive Players come from the following Teams: Patriots, Colts, Rams, Bills, Cardinals, Jaguars, Texans, Panthers, Saints, Redskins and Cowboys - all Offenses I think will be extremely productive, or with significant situational upside. More aggregate stats, more chance for quality performances.
Ultimately, my failed gamble at QB is what will likely lead to my possible undoing, and I admit there's a good chance of that happening. If I can survive that, and not suffer an injury at TE, I think I have a pretty good shot at this thing.
Best of Luck to everyone! Fire away!
Dirty Weasel
Footballguy
Time for some prognostication. No offense to anyone. I just thought I'd see how close I come to reality. It would be fun if everyone else does this too...
Week 1 - Two teams will be eliminated. My vote for those 2 teams are:
Seymour Corn - At RB, he has Ryan Grant as his top stud, but not much after that. I'm not worried about Grant holding out, and he has Brandon Jackson as insurance anyways. The problem is that Grant faces the best run defense in the NFL. Fred Taylor is his RB2, and he goes against TEN. They are middle-of-the-road, but I don't see Fred getting enough work to put up good stats. His best hope is breaking a long run, which Fred still has the capability to do. The remaining RB's on his squad are backups (Ladell Betts, Jacob Hester, Ray Rice, Kevin Jones, and Fred Jackson). Perhaps Betts can get a few goal line carries, but that's it. QB won't hurt him at all (Tom Brady and Donovan McNabb). Neither has primo matchups, but both are capable of exploding for a monster game. At WR, Jerry Porter will likely still be healing from hamstring surgery. The good news is Javon Walker seems to be fine after getting his ### kicked in Vegas. The bad news is that as OAK's WR1, he faces shutdown CB Champ Bailey. Devard Darling and Justin Gage are not fantasy studs, so Andre Johnson and Roddy White better have good games. Andre faces JAX. Without a strong HOU running game, JAX can key in on Andre. Andre is still a monster and has seen his share of double-teams. Roddy White has a nice matchup vs DET. Seymour should get nice production out of his TE's. Heck, his lower scoring of Winslow and Shockey may still have more points than his WR3. Kickers are kickers. I don't think the CLE D will get much versus DAL, so he will be taking whatever MIN gets against GB.
Elcohiba - Kitna should have a nice game vs ATL, and Delhomme will likely have a below average game vs SD. Not even sure if Shaun Hill will be the week one starter. My guess is that Alex Smith will get first crack at it. Adrian Peterson can have a great game against the best run D's in the league, and he will have to try versus GB. Earnest Graham plays NO, who are the worst pass D in the league. Believe it or not, NO does have a strong rush D, so I see TB moving the ball through the air. Rudi Johnson is Elcohiba's RB3, and he gets another top run D vs BAL. Bad matchups for his top 3 RB's, with only Shaun Alexander and Lorenzo Booker as his remaining RB's. I do like his WR's, and he should have 3 decent scores out of this crew. At TE, he has Heath Miller and Donald Lee. Neither are studs, but perhaps one can find the end zone. I think he will use SF's score versus ARI. Hopefully for him, Leinart will start. Elcohiba has a good team; I just don't like his RB matchups at all in week 1.
Week 2 - One team will be eliminated. My vote for that team is:
Nittany Lion - His HOU QB tandem of Schaub and Rosenfels play against the Ravens. BAL isn't the shutdown D it once was, but their run D is still stout. I think they will force Schaub to win it, and I don't think Schaub will come through. I also think Kurt Warner will still be waiting in the wings for his shot in week 2. QB is gonna hurt badly. Joseph Addai is a stud RB, but will not look studly facing the Vikings. Peyton will be chucking it all night. DeAngelo will still be getting a decent share of the work in CAR, limiting Jonathan Stewart versus CHI. I don't think Felix Jones was a smart pick at 7.07 in a non-PPR, and he faces a top run D in Philly. I like that he has both Deuce and Pierre, but just can't see either getting much against WAS. Nittany's WR's are very strong, but will not be able to keep him from being the lowest scoring in week 2. Daniels and Lewis at TE is a fairly weak tandem. The Jets play NE, so expect him to take what TB gets versus ATL.
Week 3 - Two teams will be eliminated. My vote for those 2 teams are:
SSOG - QB won't be the problem here. Romo should be fine versus GB. Garrard has a tough game against the Colts, but that won't matter. We all know that he spent 4 picks to corner the DEN RB market, which wasn't a bad idea, because 3 of those were late picks. But Jay Cutler will be airing it out against the Saints in week 3. MJD faces the Colts, who are also a top-10 run D. MJD is a great best ball RB, but he can also put up a clunker. If one of the DEN RB's doesn't get the bulk of the work and find the end zone, SSOG will have to rely on Jerious Norwood vs KC. They are no pushover against the run. The WR's are decent, but unspectacular. I think he will get 3 respectable scores out of his 8 WR's, but nothing that will make up up for his lack of RB scoring. At TE, he may wish he could use one as a WR. I see decent stats for both Gates and Scheffler. I also predict good scores for both his D's.
AhrnCityPahnder - This was my toughest choice, but I had to pick someone. It's not a sure thing that Leinart will still have the starting job by week 3. Big Ben faces his toughest test versus PHI, at PHI. I see the QB position letting Ahrn down. At RB, Edgerrin James gets a tough matchup against WAS. A healthy and returning Rudi Johnson will make Kenny Watson a mere backup, and Chris Perry is healthy enough to steal 3rd downs. Tatum Bell gets a nice matchup vs SF, but will be sharing (at best) with Kevin Smith. MoMo is in the same boat with a good matchup vs STL, but sharing with Julius Jones. Chris Brown and Ahman Green will steal from each other, and face TEN. Gore is studly and will have a fine day vs the Lions. Ahrn's corps of WR's are average and will hold their own. Cooley shouldn't disappoint either. His 2 very good D's have tough games vs DAL and CIN.
Week 4 - One team will be eliminated. My vote for that team is:
Green and Gold - GnG has 7 players on a week 4 bye. QB's will be no concern, as Drew Brees vs SF, Alex Smith vs NO, and JaMarcus Russell vs SD should give him a score that keeps him competitive. I'm not as happy for this RB's. Larry Johnson has a great 5-game schedule, but week 4 vs DEN is fairly hard. His RB2 (Brandon Jacobs) is off, as are Derrick Ward and Sammy Morris. I think Darren McFadden will be the workhorse by week 4, making Justin Fargas a doubly weak play vs the tough SD rush defense. Thomas Jones has a decent shot at producing vs ARI. Two of GnG's WR's are also off, but luckily they aren't his top ones. He should be able to get 3 decent scores out of his remaining 5. Dallas Clark is off, so it will be Randy McMichael for sure for GnG. McMichael is not only a weak TE, but he has a tough game vs BUF. The PIT defense will have to put up a decent game with IND off, but that shouldn't be tough against BAL.
Week 5 - Two teams will be eliminated. My vote for those 2 teams are:
Jurb26 - It doesn't matter that Derek Anderson is off when you have Peyton Manning. It's the RB position that will be in pain without SJax. Having Reggie Bush against the Vikings is also very painful. Laurence Maroney should have a decent game vs SF, but he my not get a large workload. Julius Jones will be sharing vs a good NYG D. Jurb's WR's are average overall, but his WR3 is off. He's gonna be lucky to get 3 solid WR scorers from the remaining 6. I'm not that high on Kevin Boss, and he is Jurb's only TE option. The SD defense should score well vs MIA, but will not score enough to make up for RB, WR, and TE.
Firesalt - Only has Jerricho Cotchery off week 5, but overall some very tough matchups for his team. Eli Manning vs SEA is a tough one, because SEA is alot better vs the pass than the run. Brodie Croyle has a better matchup vs CAR, but I wouldn't want to count on Croyle as my QB. Brett may end up a starter someplace, but for now he cannot be counted on. At RB, Clinton Portis faces PHI, who are excellent vs the run. Matt Forte/Adrian Peterson make for a decent play at DET, but DET is equally inept at stopping the pass. Even if Ronnie Brown gets worked slowly into a workhorse again, Rciky Williams sharing time vs a stout SD run defense is not good. Deshaun Foster will only get a few carries a game, and will not put up much vs NE. DeAngelo Williams may be in a full-blown RBBC by his week 5 game vs KC, who are pretty solid. Firesalt's WR's should be able to provide him with 3 decent scorers, so not a big concern with the loss of Cotchery. He should also score well with TE and D, but not enough to make up for the QB/RB positions.
Teams advancing to leg 2:
Bruce Henderson
Dirty Weasel
Evil Empire
Marc Faletti
It should be fun to look back at this to see how far off I was. I urge each of you to provide your guesses...
Week 1 - Two teams will be eliminated. My vote for those 2 teams are:
Seymour Corn - At RB, he has Ryan Grant as his top stud, but not much after that. I'm not worried about Grant holding out, and he has Brandon Jackson as insurance anyways. The problem is that Grant faces the best run defense in the NFL. Fred Taylor is his RB2, and he goes against TEN. They are middle-of-the-road, but I don't see Fred getting enough work to put up good stats. His best hope is breaking a long run, which Fred still has the capability to do. The remaining RB's on his squad are backups (Ladell Betts, Jacob Hester, Ray Rice, Kevin Jones, and Fred Jackson). Perhaps Betts can get a few goal line carries, but that's it. QB won't hurt him at all (Tom Brady and Donovan McNabb). Neither has primo matchups, but both are capable of exploding for a monster game. At WR, Jerry Porter will likely still be healing from hamstring surgery. The good news is Javon Walker seems to be fine after getting his ### kicked in Vegas. The bad news is that as OAK's WR1, he faces shutdown CB Champ Bailey. Devard Darling and Justin Gage are not fantasy studs, so Andre Johnson and Roddy White better have good games. Andre faces JAX. Without a strong HOU running game, JAX can key in on Andre. Andre is still a monster and has seen his share of double-teams. Roddy White has a nice matchup vs DET. Seymour should get nice production out of his TE's. Heck, his lower scoring of Winslow and Shockey may still have more points than his WR3. Kickers are kickers. I don't think the CLE D will get much versus DAL, so he will be taking whatever MIN gets against GB.
Elcohiba - Kitna should have a nice game vs ATL, and Delhomme will likely have a below average game vs SD. Not even sure if Shaun Hill will be the week one starter. My guess is that Alex Smith will get first crack at it. Adrian Peterson can have a great game against the best run D's in the league, and he will have to try versus GB. Earnest Graham plays NO, who are the worst pass D in the league. Believe it or not, NO does have a strong rush D, so I see TB moving the ball through the air. Rudi Johnson is Elcohiba's RB3, and he gets another top run D vs BAL. Bad matchups for his top 3 RB's, with only Shaun Alexander and Lorenzo Booker as his remaining RB's. I do like his WR's, and he should have 3 decent scores out of this crew. At TE, he has Heath Miller and Donald Lee. Neither are studs, but perhaps one can find the end zone. I think he will use SF's score versus ARI. Hopefully for him, Leinart will start. Elcohiba has a good team; I just don't like his RB matchups at all in week 1.
Week 2 - One team will be eliminated. My vote for that team is:
Nittany Lion - His HOU QB tandem of Schaub and Rosenfels play against the Ravens. BAL isn't the shutdown D it once was, but their run D is still stout. I think they will force Schaub to win it, and I don't think Schaub will come through. I also think Kurt Warner will still be waiting in the wings for his shot in week 2. QB is gonna hurt badly. Joseph Addai is a stud RB, but will not look studly facing the Vikings. Peyton will be chucking it all night. DeAngelo will still be getting a decent share of the work in CAR, limiting Jonathan Stewart versus CHI. I don't think Felix Jones was a smart pick at 7.07 in a non-PPR, and he faces a top run D in Philly. I like that he has both Deuce and Pierre, but just can't see either getting much against WAS. Nittany's WR's are very strong, but will not be able to keep him from being the lowest scoring in week 2. Daniels and Lewis at TE is a fairly weak tandem. The Jets play NE, so expect him to take what TB gets versus ATL.
Week 3 - Two teams will be eliminated. My vote for those 2 teams are:
SSOG - QB won't be the problem here. Romo should be fine versus GB. Garrard has a tough game against the Colts, but that won't matter. We all know that he spent 4 picks to corner the DEN RB market, which wasn't a bad idea, because 3 of those were late picks. But Jay Cutler will be airing it out against the Saints in week 3. MJD faces the Colts, who are also a top-10 run D. MJD is a great best ball RB, but he can also put up a clunker. If one of the DEN RB's doesn't get the bulk of the work and find the end zone, SSOG will have to rely on Jerious Norwood vs KC. They are no pushover against the run. The WR's are decent, but unspectacular. I think he will get 3 respectable scores out of his 8 WR's, but nothing that will make up up for his lack of RB scoring. At TE, he may wish he could use one as a WR. I see decent stats for both Gates and Scheffler. I also predict good scores for both his D's.
AhrnCityPahnder - This was my toughest choice, but I had to pick someone. It's not a sure thing that Leinart will still have the starting job by week 3. Big Ben faces his toughest test versus PHI, at PHI. I see the QB position letting Ahrn down. At RB, Edgerrin James gets a tough matchup against WAS. A healthy and returning Rudi Johnson will make Kenny Watson a mere backup, and Chris Perry is healthy enough to steal 3rd downs. Tatum Bell gets a nice matchup vs SF, but will be sharing (at best) with Kevin Smith. MoMo is in the same boat with a good matchup vs STL, but sharing with Julius Jones. Chris Brown and Ahman Green will steal from each other, and face TEN. Gore is studly and will have a fine day vs the Lions. Ahrn's corps of WR's are average and will hold their own. Cooley shouldn't disappoint either. His 2 very good D's have tough games vs DAL and CIN.
Week 4 - One team will be eliminated. My vote for that team is:
Green and Gold - GnG has 7 players on a week 4 bye. QB's will be no concern, as Drew Brees vs SF, Alex Smith vs NO, and JaMarcus Russell vs SD should give him a score that keeps him competitive. I'm not as happy for this RB's. Larry Johnson has a great 5-game schedule, but week 4 vs DEN is fairly hard. His RB2 (Brandon Jacobs) is off, as are Derrick Ward and Sammy Morris. I think Darren McFadden will be the workhorse by week 4, making Justin Fargas a doubly weak play vs the tough SD rush defense. Thomas Jones has a decent shot at producing vs ARI. Two of GnG's WR's are also off, but luckily they aren't his top ones. He should be able to get 3 decent scores out of his remaining 5. Dallas Clark is off, so it will be Randy McMichael for sure for GnG. McMichael is not only a weak TE, but he has a tough game vs BUF. The PIT defense will have to put up a decent game with IND off, but that shouldn't be tough against BAL.
Week 5 - Two teams will be eliminated. My vote for those 2 teams are:
Jurb26 - It doesn't matter that Derek Anderson is off when you have Peyton Manning. It's the RB position that will be in pain without SJax. Having Reggie Bush against the Vikings is also very painful. Laurence Maroney should have a decent game vs SF, but he my not get a large workload. Julius Jones will be sharing vs a good NYG D. Jurb's WR's are average overall, but his WR3 is off. He's gonna be lucky to get 3 solid WR scorers from the remaining 6. I'm not that high on Kevin Boss, and he is Jurb's only TE option. The SD defense should score well vs MIA, but will not score enough to make up for RB, WR, and TE.
Firesalt - Only has Jerricho Cotchery off week 5, but overall some very tough matchups for his team. Eli Manning vs SEA is a tough one, because SEA is alot better vs the pass than the run. Brodie Croyle has a better matchup vs CAR, but I wouldn't want to count on Croyle as my QB. Brett may end up a starter someplace, but for now he cannot be counted on. At RB, Clinton Portis faces PHI, who are excellent vs the run. Matt Forte/Adrian Peterson make for a decent play at DET, but DET is equally inept at stopping the pass. Even if Ronnie Brown gets worked slowly into a workhorse again, Rciky Williams sharing time vs a stout SD run defense is not good. Deshaun Foster will only get a few carries a game, and will not put up much vs NE. DeAngelo Williams may be in a full-blown RBBC by his week 5 game vs KC, who are pretty solid. Firesalt's WR's should be able to provide him with 3 decent scorers, so not a big concern with the loss of Cotchery. He should also score well with TE and D, but not enough to make up for the QB/RB positions.
Teams advancing to leg 2:
Bruce Henderson
Dirty Weasel
Evil Empire
Marc Faletti
It should be fun to look back at this to see how far off I was. I urge each of you to provide your guesses...
nittanylion
Footballguy
Great effort, DW. Will be interesting if some other folks do these. I won't be able to get around to it until next week at the earliest, unfortunately...
That being said, I respectfully disagree with your assessment of my early demise. When I have time, I'll come back and offer some supporting evidence, of course. You mentioned Schaub as being a roadblock for me in Week 2. I'll start by offering that the Texans are a Team on the rise, and the Ravens are a declining Team in transition, and the Ravens Defense is going to be held statisitically/big play hostage all Season by what's going to amount to their relatively inconsequential Fantasy Offense, IN MY OPINION, of course! Baltimore D still solid, but when forced to be on the field for more minutes than any time in the last several years = Teams with explosive Offenses making them run, wearing them down, and scorching them with big plays time and time again.
Just don't see my squad finishing 10th out of 10 in Week 2, when I look at my roster as an aggregate. Don't see me finishing 7th in Week 4 either, despite my two Studs sitting. I 'began with the end in mind', and I think I made enough contingency plans to get past this 1st Leg.
That being said, I respectfully disagree with your assessment of my early demise. When I have time, I'll come back and offer some supporting evidence, of course. You mentioned Schaub as being a roadblock for me in Week 2. I'll start by offering that the Texans are a Team on the rise, and the Ravens are a declining Team in transition, and the Ravens Defense is going to be held statisitically/big play hostage all Season by what's going to amount to their relatively inconsequential Fantasy Offense, IN MY OPINION, of course! Baltimore D still solid, but when forced to be on the field for more minutes than any time in the last several years = Teams with explosive Offenses making them run, wearing them down, and scorching them with big plays time and time again.
Just don't see my squad finishing 10th out of 10 in Week 2, when I look at my roster as an aggregate. Don't see me finishing 7th in Week 4 either, despite my two Studs sitting. I 'began with the end in mind', and I think I made enough contingency plans to get past this 1st Leg.
Dirty Weasel
Footballguy
Firstly, I fully expected anyone I had getting eliminated to disagree. Everyone SHOULD think they will advance to Leg 2; at least I hope they do. As far as BAL's D, when is the last time their offense helped them out, you asked? What if I said for the last 3 years they did? Well, in the last 3 years, BAL has won the time of possession (ToP) battle (31:10 in 2007, 32:48 in 2006, and 30:42 in 2005). In those years, they finished as D6, D1, and D5. Besides their 32:48 ToP in 2006, you have to go back to 2000 to get better than their 31:10 from last year. I think you are sticking a fork into the BAL D a bit prematurely. They are still a top defense, and the numbers show it. I do agree that HOU may be a team on the rise, but I'm not ready to say they are a good offense just yet. In their 6-year history, here is how they ranked: 32, 31, 19, 30, 28, 14. What would be the next logical number in that sequence? My guess is 26. In the only year they showed a huge rise, they declined just as badly the following year. Do I think they will finish 26th? No, I do not. Would it shock me if they did? No, it would not. Do I think they will finish in the top 10? No, I do not. Would it shock me if they did? Yes, it would. My actual guess is they finish between 16 and 20. To make a very long story short... I see week 2 vs BAL a bad matchup for Schaub; not a good one.Your only stud RB faces the best run defense in the league, and you can't deny that. Your remaining corps of Jonathan Stewart, Felix Jones, Deuce McAllister, Pierre Thomas, and Dominic Rhodes does not inspire me with confidence. Stewart may eventually become a feature RB, but not in week 2. DeAngelo will still be getting a good chunk of the work. While I don't think Reggie Bush is a workhorse RB, it's not like he is ONLY a WR. He will still get more carries than Pierre or Deuce. And Felix is a CoP RB for MB3. Obviously, Rhodes is only insurance for Addai, so he is a non-factor, unless you think both he and Addai are going to rush for 100 yards vs MIN. Who do you see as your top 2 RB's in week 2, and more importantly, what kind of stats will they have?
Bruce Henderson
Footballguy
Mine are on page 2. We agree on 3 of the 4 teams... kind of scary. I'm pretty sure we are officially jinxed now...
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MJD's games vs. Indy-135/1 (19.5 fantasy points, and incidentally, his "breakout" game)
181/2 (30.1 fantasy points)
69/1 (12.9 fantasy points)
57/1 (11.7 fantasy points)
MJD has never failed to reach paydirt vs. Indy. Even against last year's "new and improved" Indy defense, he averaged 4.33 yards per carry. MJD will be fine against Indy. As far as "Denver RB" vs. New Orleans... I don't know why you'd single out that game, as New Orleans is just an average run defense. Denver won't struggle any more or less running on the Saints than they do on anyone else. I don't see how I'm going to have any more of a lack of RB scoring that week than I would any other week- my matchups against the run are pretty average. Heck, it's possible that Denver produces BOTH of my fantasy starters that week (a situation that I don't think will be all that noteworthy if it happens once or twice during the first five weeks- Denver certainly has a history of doing so, at least).
Even if I get average scores out of my RBs and WRs, I'm going to be getting superlative scores out of my QB, TE, and Defs that week. Maybe not enough to win me the high score, but certainly enough to keep me out of the bottom 2.
Dirty Weasel
Footballguy
Kudos on the MJD vs IND stats. These are the types of rebuttals I was hoping to see.As for the DEN RB's vs NO, only PIT and GB gave up less rushing TD's than NO in 2007. I think it had alot more to do with their woeful passing D than their awesome running D. But the fact remains, teams know they can pass vs NO, so I just can't see any DEN RB putting up a decent fantasy game against them, unless only 1 RB is getting a huge bulk of the work.
.. or unless the team's only real red-zone threat at receiver is on league-mandated suspension.
I think there's a high chance that Marshall is out vs. New Orleans. It's actually shocked me how often Scheffler is used in the Red Zone, given his blocking deficiencies (iirc, 7 of his 9 career TDs are RZ grabs), but outside of Scheff, who is Denver going to go to? Whether it's plunging a back in from short yardage, or using an RB out of the backfield (I *strongly* suspect that we're going to see Pittman running a lot of routes out of the Fullback position in the red zone this year, a la Kyle "8 career TDs on 33 career receptions" Johnson), I think, for better or worse, the scoring early in the season is going to have to come via the RBs. Which is why I was hinting that multiple Denver RBs might be startable that week- I could see Selvin getting 100+ rushing and Pittman getting 40-50 junk yards and a receiving score.And if Denver decides to run their scoring through Scheffler, that's just fine by me, too. It's New Orleans- there *will* be scoring, and I'm confident enough that I'm going to get a good chunk of it however it winds up coming. If Denver's offense lays an egg against NO, I could see myself getting eliminated, but I'm banking on winding up with at least half of the TDs, maybe 66% or more, out of Denver that week. As long as Shanahan doesn't decide it's time to bring back the naked bootlegs at the goal line, that is.
Dirty Weasel
Footballguy
This really is a great argument. I may have to rethink my week 3 eliminations...If Marshall is out for this game, I do NOT think you will be eliminated in week 3.SSOG said:.. or unless the team's only real red-zone threat at receiver is on league-mandated suspension.I think there's a high chance that Marshall is out vs. New Orleans. It's actually shocked me how often Scheffler is used in the Red Zone, given his blocking deficiencies (iirc, 7 of his 9 career TDs are RZ grabs), but outside of Scheff, who is Denver going to go to? Whether it's plunging a back in from short yardage, or using an RB out of the backfield (I *strongly* suspect that we're going to see Pittman running a lot of routes out of the Fullback position in the red zone this year, a la Kyle "8 career TDs on 33 career receptions" Johnson), I think, for better or worse, the scoring early in the season is going to have to come via the RBs. Which is why I was hinting that multiple Denver RBs might be startable that week- I could see Selvin getting 100+ rushing and Pittman getting 40-50 junk yards and a receiving score.And if Denver decides to run their scoring through Scheffler, that's just fine by me, too. It's New Orleans- there *will* be scoring, and I'm confident enough that I'm going to get a good chunk of it however it winds up coming. If Denver's offense lays an egg against NO, I could see myself getting eliminated, but I'm banking on winding up with at least half of the TDs, maybe 66% or more, out of Denver that week. As long as Shanahan doesn't decide it's time to bring back the naked bootlegs at the goal line, that is.
For what it's worth, using the most recent projections, here's how the Draft Dominator project everything will shake out. I kept the eliminated teams on the list so that everyone can fantasize about what they have to look forward to if they manage to stave off elimination just that one week.
Week 1:
Evil Empire
SSoG
Ahrn
Firesalt
Henderson
Seymour Corn
Faletti
NittanyLion
Green and Gold
Jurb
Weasel
Elcohiba
Week 2:
Green and Gold
Henderson
Ahrn
Weasel (eliminated Week 1)
Evil Empire
Faletti
Seymour Corn
SSoG
Jurb
elcohiba (eliminated Week 1)
Nittany
Firesalt
Week 3:
Seymour Corn
Evil Empire
SSoG
Weasel (eliminated Week 1)
Green and Gold
Firesalt (eliminated Week 2)
Jurb
Henderson
Nittany
Elcohiba (eliminated Week 1)
Faletti
Ahrn
Week 4:
Seymour Corn
Jurb
Green and Gold
Weasel (eliminated Week 1)
SSoG
Henderson
Firesalt (eliminated Week 2)
EvilEmpire
Faletti (Eliminated Week 3)
Ahrn (eliminated Week 3)
Elcohiba (eliminated Week 1)
Nittany
Week 5:
Seymour Corn
Weasel (eliminated Week 1)
Green and Gold
SSoG
Faletti (eliminated Week 3)
EvilEmpire
Henderson
Ahrn (eliminated Week 3)
Firesalt (eliminated Week 2)
Nittany (eliminated Week 4)
Jurb
Elcohiba (eliminated Week 1)
Week 1:
Evil Empire
SSoG
Ahrn
Firesalt
Henderson
Seymour Corn
Faletti
NittanyLion
Green and Gold
Jurb
Weasel
Elcohiba
Week 2:
Green and Gold
Henderson
Ahrn
Weasel (eliminated Week 1)
Evil Empire
Faletti
Seymour Corn
SSoG
Jurb
elcohiba (eliminated Week 1)
Nittany
Firesalt
Week 3:
Seymour Corn
Evil Empire
SSoG
Weasel (eliminated Week 1)
Green and Gold
Firesalt (eliminated Week 2)
Jurb
Henderson
Nittany
Elcohiba (eliminated Week 1)
Faletti
Ahrn
Week 4:
Seymour Corn
Jurb
Green and Gold
Weasel (eliminated Week 1)
SSoG
Henderson
Firesalt (eliminated Week 2)
EvilEmpire
Faletti (Eliminated Week 3)
Ahrn (eliminated Week 3)
Elcohiba (eliminated Week 1)
Nittany
Week 5:
Seymour Corn
Weasel (eliminated Week 1)
Green and Gold
SSoG
Faletti (eliminated Week 3)
EvilEmpire
Henderson
Ahrn (eliminated Week 3)
Firesalt (eliminated Week 2)
Nittany (eliminated Week 4)
Jurb
Elcohiba (eliminated Week 1)
Dirty Weasel
Footballguy
Just for posting that, I'm moving you up to week 1 for the eliminated spot.
According to the Draft Dominator, if I can avoid finishing last in week 2, I will advance to round 2. Needless to say, I have a great deal of confidence that I will not finish last in any of the first three weeks. Week 4 is a little concern because I have some byes, but no more than one in any position, and other teams have tons of byes that week. Week 5 is scvary because 1/3 of the remaining league gets booted. I don't care who you got or who they play. One huge game from any one player is all you need to advance - unless the rest of your team dogs it. And a couple of key guys having an off week is all it takes to get booted. And nobody can predict who is gonna do what. That's why we play the games. One thing I can guarantee: nobody's predictions are going to come true, because the NFL ALWAYS surprises us. That's also why we watch the games.Just for posting that, I'm moving you up to week 1 for the eliminated spot.
DW, thanks for cutting and pasting my post onto this site. I have no idea how it ended up in the other location. I don't drink, so I don't have that excuse. It certainly wasn't my intent to create a new thread there. I haven't even read the repsonses there, and haven't seen any here, so I'll respond to your predictions instead. First, I find it ironic that you pick yourself to advance, yet the Draft Dominator eliminates you in week 1. You may want to tweak that device.
Second, I should be fine in week 5. Yes, Portis plays Philly, but last year Portis ran for over 200 yards and a TD against them. He averaged more yards against Philly than any other team he played all year, except the Jets. As for Forte, there is no way Chicago is putting their fate in the hands of their QB unless they have no other choice. They will run all over the Lions in week 5. It is more conceivable that Peterson will get solid fantasy points than that Forte will not. I have confidence that Eli will get average points, though he should not have a big game. But Brett Favre is the wildcard. If he goes to the right team, I am in. If not, it may be close but I like my chances.
Dirty Weasel
Footballguy
Update - Steve Smith has been suspended for the first 2 games of the season. I will have to redo my prognostications, but I think I will wait until Brandon Marshall gets his suspension too...As far as that Draft Dominator saying I will be eliminated in week 1, I have to laugh. I don't use the DD, and I certainly won't use it now. If it thinks I'll be booted in week 1, there is a serious glitch in it.
Anthony Borbely
Footballguy
Update - Steve Smith has been suspended for the first 2 games of the season. I will have to redo my prognostications, but I think I will wait until Brandon Marshall gets his suspension too...
As far as that Draft Dominator saying I will be eliminated in week 1, I have to laugh. I don't use the DD, and I certainly won't use it now. If it thinks I'll be booted in week 1, there is a serious glitch in it.
Dirty Weasel
Footballguy
Come on now. QB - I only need one of these guys to have a good gameUpdate - Steve Smith has been suspended for the first 2 games of the season. I will have to redo my prognostications, but I think I will wait until Brandon Marshall gets his suspension too...
As far as that Draft Dominator saying I will be eliminated in week 1, I have to laugh. I don't use the DD, and I certainly won't use it now. If it thinks I'll be booted in week 1, there is a serious glitch in it.
Marc Bulger vs PHI - Tough game, Bulger will either totally suck or have a great game; there's no middle ground for him
Jeff Garcia vs NO - An easy game, a few TD's and 250 yards very possible (NO was 30th vs yardage, 31st vs TD's in 2007)
Tarvaris Jackson vs GB - GB was middle-of-the-pack vs QB's last year; I can only see using TJ's stats if he runs alot
Vince Young vs JAX - Should be a tough game for VY; 200 yards passing with 50 rushing and 2 total TD's would be sweet
RB - Getting 2 very nice scores out of this crew shouldn't be hard
LaDainian Tomlinson vs CAR - Believe it or not, Clayton ranks CAR as a bottom-10 team vs RB's; and oh yeah - it's LT here!
Willie Parker vs HOU - Another bottom-10 ranked run D; Rashard will steal, but FWP should be getting the bulk early on in '08
Darren McFadden vs DEN - If you haven't been reading, OAK is in awe of DMac; tough game, so I won't get all giddy just yet
Kevin Smith vs ATL - 3 of my 4 RB's face a bottom-10 run D; another rookie RB getting high praise so far
WR - Will take the top 3 scores from this bunch
Marques Colston vs TB - Very tough game; was night & day in 2007 vs TB (3/38/0 and 11/123/1) - cross fingers for the latter
Chad Johnson vs BAL - Average vs the pass, CJ was 5/95/1 and 4/73 vs BAL in 2007; will CJ spazz out before game 1?
Anthony Gonzalez vs CHI - Medium-tough game; his stats are highly dependent on whether Marvin plays or not
Michael Clayton vs NO - Took a late flyer on him, been hearing great things so far; time will tell if he regains his rookie form
Malcolm Kelly vs NYG - Decent game for WR's, but no telling how this rookie will do
Devin Thomas vs NYG - Another rookie WAS WR, at least I read he's getting healthier
Limas Sweed vs HOU - Good matchup, but was recently carted off the field in practice; will be a nice EZ target if healthy
Early Doucet vs SF - Mediocre matchup, but don't expect much playing time; he was the last pick of our draft, a total flyer
TE - Only need 1 TE to score some FF points
Tony Gonzalez vs NE - Mediocre matchup, but he is studly
Vernon Davis vs ARI - Good matchup, I love him as my TE2
K - Use 1
Matt Stover vs CIN
Taylor Mehlhaff vs TB
D - Use 1
CHI vs IND - Can't expect much on D vs IND, but maybe a Hester runback TD
DAL vs CLE - I will most likely use whatever DAL gets in week 1
As I see it, WR3 will be my only weak spot. How on earth does that stupid DD have me getting eliminated?
Nah, according to the DD, if you don't get eliminated in Week 2, you'll get it in Week 5 instead.
Anthony Borbely
Footballguy
I was only laughing at the bolded part because it was funny, not about week 1.Dirty Weasel said:Come on now. QB - I only need one of these guys to have a good gameAnthony Borbely said:Dirty Weasel said:Update - Steve Smith has been suspended for the first 2 games of the season. I will have to redo my prognostications, but I think I will wait until Brandon Marshall gets his suspension too...
As far as that Draft Dominator saying I will be eliminated in week 1, I have to laugh. I don't use the DD, and I certainly won't use it now. If it thinks I'll be booted in week 1, there is a serious glitch in it.
Marc Bulger vs PHI - Tough game, Bulger will either totally suck or have a great game; there's no middle ground for him
Jeff Garcia vs NO - An easy game, a few TD's and 250 yards very possible (NO was 30th vs yardage, 31st vs TD's in 2007)
Tarvaris Jackson vs GB - GB was middle-of-the-pack vs QB's last year; I can only see using TJ's stats if he runs alot
Vince Young vs JAX - Should be a tough game for VY; 200 yards passing with 50 rushing and 2 total TD's would be sweet
RB - Getting 2 very nice scores out of this crew shouldn't be hard
LaDainian Tomlinson vs CAR - Believe it or not, Clayton ranks CAR as a bottom-10 team vs RB's; and oh yeah - it's LT here!
Willie Parker vs HOU - Another bottom-10 ranked run D; Rashard will steal, but FWP should be getting the bulk early on in '08
Darren McFadden vs DEN - If you haven't been reading, OAK is in awe of DMac; tough game, so I won't get all giddy just yet
Kevin Smith vs ATL - 3 of my 4 RB's face a bottom-10 run D; another rookie RB getting high praise so far
WR - Will take the top 3 scores from this bunch
Marques Colston vs TB - Very tough game; was night & day in 2007 vs TB (3/38/0 and 11/123/1) - cross fingers for the latter
Chad Johnson vs BAL - Average vs the pass, CJ was 5/95/1 and 4/73 vs BAL in 2007; will CJ spazz out before game 1?
Anthony Gonzalez vs CHI - Medium-tough game; his stats are highly dependent on whether Marvin plays or not
Michael Clayton vs NO - Took a late flyer on him, been hearing great things so far; time will tell if he regains his rookie form
Malcolm Kelly vs NYG - Decent game for WR's, but no telling how this rookie will do
Devin Thomas vs NYG - Another rookie WAS WR, at least I read he's getting healthier
Limas Sweed vs HOU - Good matchup, but was recently carted off the field in practice; will be a nice EZ target if healthy
Early Doucet vs SF - Mediocre matchup, but don't expect much playing time; he was the last pick of our draft, a total flyer
TE - Only need 1 TE to score some FF points
Tony Gonzalez vs NE - Mediocre matchup, but he is studly
Vernon Davis vs ARI - Good matchup, I love him as my TE2
K - Use 1
Matt Stover vs CIN
Taylor Mehlhaff vs TB
D - Use 1
CHI vs IND - Can't expect much on D vs IND, but maybe a Hester runback TD
DAL vs CLE - I will most likely use whatever DAL gets in week 1
As I see it, WR3 will be my only weak spot. How on earth does that stupid DD have me getting eliminated?
That being said, with 12 teams, everyone has a chance to make week 1. Someone is going to have a really bad week and it could be anyone.I think you have some tough matchups for your QBs. The Rams are not the same great offense of the past and Bulger has a tough matchup. Even though Garcia faces the Saints, he is not a QB who lights it up and he still only has one WR. Jackson is not going to light up the scoreboard and Young has a very tough matchup. I'd be worried a bit.
You should be solid at RB with LT and whoever else joins him.
WR is where you take a huge hit in my opinion. Chad and Colston do not have it easy and you pretty much need both to light it up. It's hard to count on Gonzalez with Harrison looking likely to play, and he is your #3WR. After that, you have Michael Clayton and 4 rookies, none of whom figure to be major contributors early on. This is where I think your problem lies. Clayton and the 4 rookies are not likely to help you at all. Even if you make week 1, I honestly think having 4 rookies and Clayton is going to catch up to you eventually. It's very hard to survive without solid WR depth.
Should be interesting to watch 12 leagues unfold and see how the various strategies pan out.
I do have to ask you why you took so many rookie WRs though. The rest of your team is solid and if you have chosen some veteran WRs, you might have had a cakewalk into the next round.
Dirty Weasel
Footballguy
I do have to ask you why you took so many rookie WRs though. The rest of your team is solid and if you have chosen some veteran WRs, you might have had a cakewalk into the next round.
I chalk up my 4 rookies to 2 things...
- Thing 1 - Too much rum at the start of the draft
- Thing 2 - Switching to Heineken when I ran out of rum
I regret taking all 4 rookies, but not Anthony Gonzalez or Michael Clayton. I think Marvin is done and is only a smokescreen at the moment. As for Clayton, I was watching the WR2 battle in TB, and none were really making a move except for Clayton. We know he is capable of producing, and when I picked up Garcia, I thought a flyer on Clayton was a good move.
I chalk up my 4 rookies to 2 things...
- Thing 1 - Too much rum at the start of the draft
- Thing 2 - Switching to Heineken when I ran out of rum
I regret taking all 4 rookies, but not Anthony Gonzalez or Michael Clayton. I think Marvin is done and is only a smokescreen at the moment. As for Clayton, I was watching the WR2 battle in TB, and none were really making a move except for Clayton. We know he is capable of producing, and when I picked up Garcia, I thought a flyer on Clayton was a good move.
Now that Marshall got his suspension, and Favre in in Joisey, you are poised to make your new predictions. You are doubtless relieved that Favre did not go to TBay. Cotchery and Coles go up in value, and my QBs now have to be considered one of the best in the league. Favre goes against the Cardinals during Eli's week 4 bye. Not only a decent opponent, but an NFC team that Brett is familiar with. I think my chances of advancing have gone up.Update - Steve Smith has been suspended for the first 2 games of the season. I will have to redo my prognostications, but I think I will wait until Brandon Marshall gets his suspension too...As far as that Draft Dominator saying I will be eliminated in week 1, I have to laugh. I don't use the DD, and I certainly won't use it now. If it thinks I'll be booted in week 1, there is a serious glitch in it.
nittanylion
Footballguy
Well, Warner is now the named Starter in Arizona, so at this moment, this isn't a bad hand.
Week 1: at San Francisco - should put up decent #'s, and keep his job, leading to...
Week 2: Home opener vs Miami - so much for worrying about Schaub having a long day vs Baltimore, even though it's a home game for Houston...
Provided nothing changes, I'm saying: first bullet dodged.
I'm going to forget to do this, but if someone else wants to take the ball and run with it, it's fine by me:
After Week 3, we'll be down to 7 Teams going into the first week of Byes, and it's a 6-Teamer that includes the Patriots and Colts, (Giants, Seahawks, Lions, Miami)...
...but only ONE Team gets eliminated that Week, so chances of advancement are reasonable for all remaining squads, injuries notwithstanding.
Be interesting to do a breakdown at that point of who's left, and what their Teams look like going into that massive Bye Week.
I know I'll be down Addai/Rhodes, Moss, and Vinatieri, which puts me in a precarious position, unless I hit the Immunity Jackpot in Week 3. Seems as likely as not that Addai and Moss might net me that gift, prior to their hiatus, though.
Season's almost here, fellas - Good Luck to all! Hope to see 3 of you in Week 6!
Week 1: at San Francisco - should put up decent #'s, and keep his job, leading to...
Week 2: Home opener vs Miami - so much for worrying about Schaub having a long day vs Baltimore, even though it's a home game for Houston...
Provided nothing changes, I'm saying: first bullet dodged.
I'm going to forget to do this, but if someone else wants to take the ball and run with it, it's fine by me:
After Week 3, we'll be down to 7 Teams going into the first week of Byes, and it's a 6-Teamer that includes the Patriots and Colts, (Giants, Seahawks, Lions, Miami)...
...but only ONE Team gets eliminated that Week, so chances of advancement are reasonable for all remaining squads, injuries notwithstanding.
Be interesting to do a breakdown at that point of who's left, and what their Teams look like going into that massive Bye Week.
I know I'll be down Addai/Rhodes, Moss, and Vinatieri, which puts me in a precarious position, unless I hit the Immunity Jackpot in Week 3. Seems as likely as not that Addai and Moss might net me that gift, prior to their hiatus, though.
Season's almost here, fellas - Good Luck to all! Hope to see 3 of you in Week 6!
Seymour Corn
it=info
I am confused. I assume this league doesn't need submitted lineups. Just goes by highest points per position?
Thanks
Thanks
Dirty Weasel
Footballguy
One week over, two teams gone
Jurb26 - WR's killed him. He loaded up on 7 WR's, but only 1 managed to score any points.
Seymour Corn - It wasn't Brady that killed him; McNabb filled in nicely. Corn just didn't get enough production from his RB's and WR's.
Here are the players that won't be advancing to week 2:
QB - Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb, Derek Anderson, Trent Edwards, Brady Quinn
RB - Steven Jackson, Reggie Bush, Ryan Grant, Laurence Maroney, Fred Taylor, Julius Jones, Ray Rice, Kevin Jones, Brandon Jackson, Ladell Betts, Jacob Hester, Fred Jackson, Antonio Pittman
WR - Andre Johnson, Brandon Marshall, Roddy White, Chris Chambers, Javon Walker, Jerry Porter, Justin Gage, Justin McCareins, Jabar Gaffney, Robert Meachem, Donte Stallworth, James Hardy, Devard Darling
TE - Kellen Winslow, Jeremy Shockey, Greg Olsen, Dustin Keller, Kevin Boss
K - Stephen Gostkowski, Nick Folk, Shayne Graham, Matt Bryant
D - Chargers, Vikings, Browns
So, who will be the team to bow out in week 2?
Jurb26 - WR's killed him. He loaded up on 7 WR's, but only 1 managed to score any points.
Seymour Corn - It wasn't Brady that killed him; McNabb filled in nicely. Corn just didn't get enough production from his RB's and WR's.
Here are the players that won't be advancing to week 2:
QB - Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb, Derek Anderson, Trent Edwards, Brady Quinn
RB - Steven Jackson, Reggie Bush, Ryan Grant, Laurence Maroney, Fred Taylor, Julius Jones, Ray Rice, Kevin Jones, Brandon Jackson, Ladell Betts, Jacob Hester, Fred Jackson, Antonio Pittman
WR - Andre Johnson, Brandon Marshall, Roddy White, Chris Chambers, Javon Walker, Jerry Porter, Justin Gage, Justin McCareins, Jabar Gaffney, Robert Meachem, Donte Stallworth, James Hardy, Devard Darling
TE - Kellen Winslow, Jeremy Shockey, Greg Olsen, Dustin Keller, Kevin Boss
K - Stephen Gostkowski, Nick Folk, Shayne Graham, Matt Bryant
D - Chargers, Vikings, Browns
So, who will be the team to bow out in week 2?
nittanylion
Footballguy
Wow, that was close. Made the cut by 3.5 points...
Gotta admit I was more than a little surprised to see my Team finish Week 1 in 10th, and almost buying the farm. This Team is better than that.
Congrats to the other survivors, good luck finding a Week 2 chair when the music stops!
Gotta admit I was more than a little surprised to see my Team finish Week 1 in 10th, and almost buying the farm. This Team is better than that.
Congrats to the other survivors, good luck finding a Week 2 chair when the music stops!
Bruce Henderson and Marc Faletti seem to be miles ahead of everyone else. By my math, if you combined the teams of the two who bowed out, they still would have finished behind Henderson and Faletti. But things can change in a hurry. No one is safe, especially with all the injuries that are happening. Good luck to the ten that remain (but more luck for me)
Bruce Henderson
Footballguy
Dirty Weasel could be leaving us in Week 2...
nittanylion
Footballguy
It would appear so, and by only 8 Points...
01. 147.9 Marc Faletti
02. 139.1 SSOG
03. 134.3 nittanylion
04. 130.4 elcohiba
05. 130.4 evilempire
06. 122.5 Bruce Henderson
07. 115.4 AhrnCityPahnder
08. 106.1 Firesalt
09. 94.7 Green and Gold
10. 86.7 Dirty Weasel
25% of the Field eliminated...
...Week 3, Field gets reduced to 7, with TWO eliminations...who will they be?
01. 147.9 Marc Faletti
02. 139.1 SSOG
03. 134.3 nittanylion
04. 130.4 elcohiba
05. 130.4 evilempire
06. 122.5 Bruce Henderson
07. 115.4 AhrnCityPahnder
08. 106.1 Firesalt
09. 94.7 Green and Gold
10. 86.7 Dirty Weasel
25% of the Field eliminated...
...Week 3, Field gets reduced to 7, with TWO eliminations...who will they be?
My team appears to be in good shape through the first rounds of cuts. Romo in the first is looking like an awesome selection (especially as the stud RBs around him keep struggling). Hopefully he can keep it up, because Jacksonville's offense has been FIREBOMBED recently, and I'm not expecting anything out of Garrard from here on out. On the RB front, MJD is suffering heavily from an ankle injury and the lack of an offensive line, but the rest has played out true to form- Norwood looks like a tremendous boom-or-bust guy, and Denver's situation so far has been producing two guys a week that I could get starting scores out of. I was a little short-handed at WR with Baltimore's unexpected bye, but despite my last selection (Colbert) busting and Engram getting injured, I feel like I have a WR1 and a bunch of guys who between them will amount to at least a pair of WR3s. My TEs have been awesome, and the Titans defense is just silly at this point- and its next three games are against Houston, Minnesota, and Baltimore. Nice.
Dirty Weasel
Footballguy
Well, shucks. It looks like I am a goner. So, where did I go wrong?
- Taking a kicker who wasn't a starter (Mehlhaff)
- Losing my only other kicker to Hurricane Ike (Stover)
- Losing 2 of my 4 crappy QB's (Vince Young and Jeff Garcia)
And the main reason...
- Getting bombed during the draft and taking 4 rookie WR's instead of 4 average Joe's (guys like Justin Gage, Amani Toomer, Antwaan Randle El, etc.)
Good luck to the remaining teams.
The Dirty Weasel has left the building!
- Taking a kicker who wasn't a starter (Mehlhaff)
- Losing my only other kicker to Hurricane Ike (Stover)
- Losing 2 of my 4 crappy QB's (Vince Young and Jeff Garcia)
And the main reason...
- Getting bombed during the draft and taking 4 rookie WR's instead of 4 average Joe's (guys like Justin Gage, Amani Toomer, Antwaan Randle El, etc.)
Good luck to the remaining teams.
The Dirty Weasel has left the building!
nittanylion
Footballguy
Week 3 is in the books...
01. Marc Faletti 138.7
02. Firesalt 125.1
03. evilempire 116.2
04. SSOG 109.4
05. Green and Gold 108.6
06. nittanylion 106.9
07. elcohiba 105.1
08. Ahrn City Pahnder 97.2
09. Bruce Henderson 89.1
Week 4: ONE elimination...who will it be?
01. Marc Faletti 138.7
02. Firesalt 125.1
03. evilempire 116.2
04. SSOG 109.4
05. Green and Gold 108.6
06. nittanylion 106.9
07. elcohiba 105.1
08. Ahrn City Pahnder 97.2
09. Bruce Henderson 89.1
Week 4: ONE elimination...who will it be?
AhrnCityPahnder
Yinz-o-riffic
Ugh. I knew I was in the ####ter. 3 of my first 6 picks (TO, RoyWilliams, and Big Ben) combined to get me 8.3 points.nittanylion said:
Bruce Henderson
Footballguy
You would think that 8 WRs would of been enough... but half of them didn't even see the field and the other half mailed it in this week.
Good Luck to the remaining survivors.
Good Luck to the remaining survivors.
nittanylion
Footballguy
Week 4 in the books...
01. Firesalt 154.1
02. Green and Gold 147.9
03. nittanylion 144.8
04. elcohiba 126.2
05. Marc Faletti 124.6
06. SSOG 114.0
07. evilempire 96.3
With one week to go, half are gone, and half remain. Week 5 promises to be the unkindest cut of all...2 Eliminations to take the field down to the 4 who will move on.
Not the worst of Bye Weeks: Rams, Jets, Browns, Raiders, so everyone should have plenty of options to draw from...
...gonna be brutal
01. Firesalt 154.1
02. Green and Gold 147.9
03. nittanylion 144.8
04. elcohiba 126.2
05. Marc Faletti 124.6
06. SSOG 114.0
07. evilempire 96.3
With one week to go, half are gone, and half remain. Week 5 promises to be the unkindest cut of all...2 Eliminations to take the field down to the 4 who will move on.
Not the worst of Bye Weeks: Rams, Jets, Browns, Raiders, so everyone should have plenty of options to draw from...
...gonna be brutal
I've gotta say, with Boldin looking doubtful, this is the first weekend where I'm not liking my chances. Up until this point, I've been getting by with a pair of RB2/RB3s every week while my QB, WR1, TE, and Def carry my team. With no real firework potential from my receiver corps, I'm going to need Jones-Drew to step up and play like I expected him to when I drafted him. Also, if I'm being perfectly honest, I probably need a couple of bad games from the competition.
Of course, a nice 6-TD game from Romo would work, too.
Of course, a nice 6-TD game from Romo would work, too.