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Unemployment lowest since 2008 (1 Viewer)

JuniorNB said:
It's obviously good news. It went from 10 to 5 under Obama. If you can show me a post where you celebrated the work of Obama and his role in cutting unemployment rates, I will give you accolades here. But we both know you will never find that post. The unemployment rate has simply continued to go down. So I guess you could say Trump didn't screw it up. So I'll give a slow golf clap to your boy.
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As I have said before. Obama made a big mistake in not tweeting every two days about how more great things are today then they were two days ago. 

 
JuniorNB said:
It's obviously good news. It went from 10 to 5 under Obama. If you can show me a post where you celebrated the work of Obama and his role in cutting unemployment rates, I will give you accolades here. But we both know you will never find that post. The unemployment rate has simply continued to go down. So I guess you could say Trump didn't screw it up. So I'll give a slow golf clap to your boy.
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He’s far from my boy and good luck finding a post where I celebrated his work in cutting unemployment rates. 

 
It's obviously great news that it's continuing down.  What would make it even better if is wages go up, inflation ticks up uncomfortably, the Fed raises rates, and we get a slowdown without the economy imploding.  Getting through an entire business cycle post-2008 normally would be a big deal.

 
boots11234 said:
?  I’m talking about wages. If you want them to go up stopping illegal immigration thus making labor more scarce would creat higher pay for these jobs. Plus the unemployment figure only count people looking for work not the people who’ve fallen off. If wages were to go up perhaps more Americans would work who’ve fallen off. 
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You do realize less labor on these types of jobs means less work gets done. 

 
The Commish said:
Slow wage growth helps big companies and their bottom lines.  Does very little for the people working at those companies or small businesses.  It grows the income inequality gap as well.  And now that the cash has been returned pretty close to normal quantities after flooding the market with cash to keep the big banks afloat, inflation will be kept in check by RAISING rates.  There are going to be 2-3 more hikes this year.  
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https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/gve7v4/bigger-corporations-are-making-you-poorer

 
boots11234 said:
One way to increase wages especially on the unskilled end would be to build a wall and stop allowing corporations access to cheap labor. Good idea?  It would likely raise Americans wages. 
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Building a wall would have absolutely no effect whatsoever on corporate access to undocumented labor. 

The only way to have an impact on this would be to penalize corporations that are caught hiring undocumented people. It’s interesting to me, though not at all surprising, that none of the anti-illegal conservatives in office ever propose this. 

Your main premise, that removing undocumented people would result in higher wages for the rest of us, is completely false and contradicts economic theory and reality. 

 
Wage growth is right where it should be (the red square), if you are a buyer of the scatter plot at the bottom of Slate's article.  Makes good sense to me - straightforward supply and demand going on.  The supply isn't as tight as the one headline stat of 3.9% would suggest.  Which we all knew.

 
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The challenge with using employment rate of working age people is that there have been significant shifts in rates of college education in the last 40 years. Also, the have been shifts in rates for women in the workforce. That metric ignores these economic shifts.

The correlation is strong through, no denying that.

 
The Z Machine said:
The challenge with using employment rate of working age people is that there have been significant shifts in rates of college education in the last 40 years. Also, the have been shifts in rates for women in the workforce. That metric ignores these economic shifts.

The correlation is strong through, no denying that.
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That plot showed years 1994 to present.  Not much has changed over that time.  Heck, Office Space came out in 1997 or so, and still feels sadly current!  It's a solid correlation.

 
Glad the unemployment numbers are staying low but didn’t republicans used to complain about “real unemployment” and how it wasn’t reflected in this number? Where did those guys go?

 
The General said:
Glad the unemployment numbers are staying low but didn’t republicans used to complain about “real unemployment” and how it wasn’t reflected in this number? Where did those guys go?
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Yes, thank you for pointing out that there is a game going on.  Back during "used to", sites like Slate would reliably high-five the top line number, and now they are into nuance.  And around we go!

 
proteus126 said:
Wage growth is right where it should be (the red square), if you are a buyer of the scatter plot at the bottom of Slate's article.  Makes good sense to me - straightforward supply and demand going on.  The supply isn't as tight as the one headline stat of 3.9% would suggest.  Which we all knew.
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Wage growth has been #### for 40 years.

 
Josie Maran said:
Wage growth has been #### for 40 years.
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Your outrage is duly noted.  I should have added the word "mathematically" at the end of the text you bolded.

Interesting short read from the St. Louis Fed a few years ago.  Low inflation coupled with low productivity growth seems the culprit for low post-recession wage growth.  Well, that or the greedy Capitalists.

 
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proteus126 said:
Your outrage is duly noted.  I should have added the word "mathematically" at the end of the text you bolded.

Interesting short read from the St. Louis Fed a few years ago.  Low inflation coupled with low productivity growth seems the culprit for low post-recession wage growth.  Well, that or the greedy Capitalists.
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It's the latter.

 
proteus126 said:
Your outrage is duly noted.  I should have added the word "mathematically" at the end of the text you bolded.

Interesting short read from the St. Louis Fed a few years ago.  Low inflation coupled with low productivity growth seems the culprit for low post-recession wage growth.  Well, that or the greedy Capitalists.
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They are going to have a very hard time proving their assertion that those blue points are statistically below the line as a population.  There's a good bit of scatter in that data.  Which, of course, is why there is no talk of statistical significance there.  Shameful from a place like the Fed.

 
The General said:
Glad the unemployment numbers are staying low but didn’t republicans used to complain about “real unemployment” and how it wasn’t reflected in this number? Where did those guys go?
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Maybe I'm misreading opinion pieces, but I think economist keep waiting for a spike where those that gave up looking long ago have been enticed to look again.  They seem to have been waiting for a while now so I wonder if that just isn't going to ever happen.  That those that aren't looking have "all" found a means to get by one way or another?

 
SaintsInDome2006 said:
The labor participation rate is still at a generational low.

- Candidate Trump would have described that as 38% unemployment.
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Yup. I remember the Hannity types cried about this this towards the end of Obama's run because the number everyone uses had fallen so low. Trump parroted this, said the numbers were "fake" that Obama and the Dems were using.

During a press conference back when we still had Sean Spicer up there he literally laughed when was asked about the labor participation number, was asked if these numbers were still fake. He said they are real now. 

 
I believe average hourly wage is still lower than recession levels. Workers still aren’t being given raises on par with or god forbid above inflation.

 
Ilov80s said:
I believe average hourly wage is still lower than recession levels. Workers still aren’t being given raises on par with or god forbid above inflation.
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Technically, I don't think that's true.  On average wage growth is slightly above inflation, and growth has been pretty broad and sometimes even better at the bottom end of the income distribution than the middle and top. 

But "wages" for top income earners isn't everything.  There are a lot of high income individuals that aren't paid traditional W2 wages, instead getting compensated in stock and assets.  Those assets have seen large growth, and those that own a lot of it have seen their wealth grow tremendously in the last 8 years.  That is fueling income inequality and distortions in the labor/captial balance (IMO).

 
The Z Machine said:
Technically, I don't think that's true.  On average wage growth is slightly above inflation, and growth has been pretty broad and sometimes even better at the bottom end of the income distribution than the middle and top. 

But "wages" for top income earners isn't everything.  There are a lot of high income individuals that aren't paid traditional W2 wages, instead getting compensated in stock and assets.  Those assets have seen large growth, and those that own a lot of it have seen their wealth grow tremendously in the last 8 years.  That is fueling income inequality and distortions in the labor/captial balance (IMO).
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More signs of a growing gap between the haves and the have nots. "Housing affordability is weakening at the fastest pace in a quarter century" :https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2018/04/13/housing-affordability-weakening-at-fastest-pace-in-quarter-century.html

 
The Z Machine said:
Technically, I don't think that's true.  On average wage growth is slightly above inflation, and growth has been pretty broad and sometimes even better at the bottom end of the income distribution than the middle and top. 

But "wages" for top income earners isn't everything.  There are a lot of high income individuals that aren't paid traditional W2 wages, instead getting compensated in stock and assets.  Those assets have seen large growth, and those that own a lot of it have seen their wealth grow tremendously in the last 8 years.  That is fueling income inequality and distortions in the labor/captial balance (IMO).
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Ok I was reading something saying that since the 70s, wages have just kept pace with inflation where prior it had was growing a couple points above inflation annually. I can’t find it now tho.

 
Ilov80s said:
Ok I was reading something saying that since the 70s, wages have just kept pace with inflation where prior it had was growing a couple points above inflation annually. I can’t find it now tho.
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It's possible that's the case over a 40 year period, but it is not quite true for the last 8 years.  Inflation has been low for a long time, but it was quite high in the late 70s / early 80s.  We haven't seen CPI at 4% inflation since 1991, but it was 13.5% in 1980.  Even with significant wage growth, it's hard to overcome double digit inflation.

 
Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump)

6/1/18, 7:21 AM

Looking forward to seeing the employment numbers at 8:30 this morning.

 
Zeke Miller (@ZekeJMiller)

6/1/18, 8:31 AM

WASHINGTON (AP) — US employers added 223,000 jobs in May, unemployment rate falls to 18-year low of 3.8 pct.

 
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Philip Bump (@pbump)

6/1/18, 8:32 AM

Black unemployment at 5.9 percent is the first time it has ever been under 6 percent, a fact you will hear very frequently until at least November 2020.

 
One thing we WILL see: more undocumented immigrants. Whenever the economy is booming, they arrive in greater numbers. 

Which is one of the reasons I welcome them.  :thumbup:

 
Sheriff Bart said:
And companies are flush with cash thanks to the tax cuts.  I'm sure everyone will be seeing big fat raises any day now. 
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Well, I saw something yesterday which clearly indicated those companies are giving a yuge middle finger to their employees and aren't spreading the wealth..er...allowing the excess $$ to trickle down. So no, not any day now.

 
toshiba said:
Because he is under the illusion that Democrats are like Republicans in that all that Republicans care about is seeing America fail if they are not in charge.   
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Unfortunately this forum is proof that it isn't an illusion with many in here. 

Great work POTUS on the economy and employment.  :thumbup:

 
GoBirds said:
Unfortunately this forum is proof that it isn't an illusion with many in here. 

Great work POTUS on the economy and employment.  :thumbup:
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BS...it’s a blatantly false accusation the right uses for people disagreeing with trump.

Yes...great work continuing the trend that has been ongoing for several years and not screwing it up.

 
lower unemployment is a good thing, of course. i am still concerned about very "meh" wage growth, especially with interest rates sure to increase now, and the impact of the tariffs now.  

 
sho nuff said:
BS...it’s a blatantly false accusation the right uses for people disagreeing with trump.

Yes...great work continuing the trend that has been ongoing for several years and not screwing it up.
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I guess you didn't read the article and particularly as you so like to talk about, the facts

 
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