US economy thread (5 Viewers)

[massraider]

I'm not sold and our over reliance on credit card debt IS troubling, IMO.

Tnink if this was gonna bury us, it would have happened already.

 

[Penguin]

I bought out my car lease yesterday. I have a 805 credit score and the best rate I could get was 8.6%, absolutely sick over it. What are people with a 665 paying?

Yikes. At that rate I’m not financing anything.

Prior to 2000, auto rates were normally around 8-12%. We've gotten spoiled over the last 20 years and especially the last 10.

My last auto loan before this one was 4.0%, right at 5 years ago...which was around the lowest in the 50+ year history of auto financing.

I had to buy a car out of necessity in June of 2020. I know, perfect storm with the dealers just opening back up after a 2 month lock down, but I got a 2019 (1 year old) Toyota Camary with 18,800 miles on it for........... 15K. The asking price was $24.999. I went in and haggled for around 30 minutes. 15K, no money down, 0% interest and an 8 year bumper to bumper warranty. Now this wasn't business savvy, just dumb luck on the timing. Two years later they called and emailed me asking if I wanted to sell the car back to them for 30K. Sounds great to 2x your money on a car you bought 2 years ago (I only drive like 1500 miles a year) but I'd also have to pay roughly double to replace that car.

I am now seeing 72 month and 84th financing loans and interest rates in the high teens (15%-19%), that's crazy. I can't imagine buying a 60K pickup truck, financing at 12-15% for 6-7 years, holy beejeasus.

I know not everyone thinks this way but to me interest charges are just burning money, lighting it on fire unless you get some crazy low rate.

 

[DA RAIDERS]

Americans’ credit card debt levels have just notched a new, but undesirable, milestone: For the first time ever, they’ve surpassed $1 trillion, according to data released Tuesday by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Probably not that big of a deal.

tl;dr: CC debt is up 8% since Q4 2019 (pre COVID), but GDP is 24% higher, HH wealth is 28% higher, and home equity is 48% higher.

Read the article.

He makes a LOT of assumptions and his primary basis for saying it isn't a problem is that asset prices went up (homes and cars). That's great and all, but unless you plan to sell a house or car and either downsize or not replace it, that increase doesn't help at all. At best, people can borrow on the increased equity...but, interest rates aren't favorable there.

I'm not sold and our over reliance on credit card debt IS troubling, IMO.

@Keerock we need a poll on if you pay off your credit cards every month or if you carry a balance. I’d love another one where the question would be for those that carry a balance, how much is it?

 

[FairWarning]

I'm not sold and our over reliance on credit card debt IS troubling, IMO.

Tnink if this was gonna bury us, it would have happened already.

What it does do is make your life more vulnerable if a major life event happens. You are paying a bank instead of saving for a rainy day.

 

[FairWarning]

I bought out my car lease yesterday. I have a 805 credit score and the best rate I could get was 8.6%, absolutely sick over it. What are people with a 665 paying?

What mfg and who owned the lease? Just got our kids a new Honda at 3.9%

GM, it is as an equinox. The Honda dealer by me has a lot that is 1/3 full, mainly used.

That's crazy. Was the buy out really high?

$17,000

Assuming it's a short loan then...that's not bad at all.

60 month, lenders wouldn't go 48. I’ll probably just keep it 2 years and hope the market corrects itself.

 

[guru_007]

Americans’ credit card debt levels have just notched a new, but undesirable, milestone: For the first time ever, they’ve surpassed $1 trillion, according to data released Tuesday by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Probably not that big of a deal.

tl;dr: CC debt is up 8% since Q4 2019 (pre COVID), but GDP is 24% higher, HH wealth is 28% higher, and home equity is 48% higher.

Right.
I'm 0% concerned about the US credit card debt topping $1T. So long as the labor market is strong, unemployment low and wage growth is good, this is a non-story, IMHO. Credit card rewards are a huge driver to this and never have been so rampant.
Will there be a bit more in the form of charge offs, sure, but the credit card companies have already allotted for this fact in reserves, as have banks for consumer debt.
You know what does worry me? Our national debt is over $32.5T, while we are operating at a deficit, and interest rates are going up which will raise the monthly nut even more. We'll soon be paying like a trillion/year in interest ffs. No one seems to care anymore at all about the national debt but this is a ticking time bomb.

 

[Keerock]

Americans’ credit card debt levels have just notched a new, but undesirable, milestone: For the first time ever, they’ve surpassed $1 trillion, according to data released Tuesday by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Probably not that big of a deal.

tl;dr: CC debt is up 8% since Q4 2019 (pre COVID), but GDP is 24% higher, HH wealth is 28% higher, and home equity is 48% higher.

Read the article.

He makes a LOT of assumptions and his primary basis for saying it isn't a problem is that asset prices went up (homes and cars). That's great and all, but unless you plan to sell a house or car and either downsize or not replace it, that increase doesn't help at all. At best, people can borrow on the increased equity...but, interest rates aren't favorable there.

I'm not sold and our over reliance on credit card debt IS troubling, IMO.

@Keerock we need a poll on if you pay off your credit cards every month or if you carry a balance. I’d love another one where the question would be for those that carry a balance, how much is it?

Will do... but get ready for the onslaught of "I don't use credit cards/credit is the devil" comments...

 

[MTskibum]

@Keerock we need a poll on if you pay off your credit cards every month or if you carry a balance. I’d love another one where the question would be for those that carry a balance, how much is it?

The only problem is that it could make people who are less financially stable feel bad and the people that are more financially stable would be humble bragging. I understand that FBG's tend to be on the wealthier side, however still not everyone here is in that great of shape.

 

[FairWarning]

The job numbers are good, but I bet the percentage of people working 2-3 jobs is the highest ever.

 

[massraider]

I don't think it's credit card debt as a harbinger.

I am interested in the changes in commercial real estate. Citibank just downsized their footprint by 70% outside Chicago.

“Compared to big banks, small banks hold 4.4-times more exposure to U.S. [CRE] loans than their larger peers,”

Some lenders have stopped all CRE loans. That's previously impossible to imagine. Gonna get bloody in this sector. I was talking to @Chadstroma about this esrlier in the thread, and I wasn't too concerned, but maybe I should be. The cascading effect/collateral damage seems like something to be worried about.

 

[BeTheMatch]

I don't think it's credit card debt as a harbinger.

I am interested in the changes in commercial real estate. Citibank just downsized their footprint by 70% outside Chicago.

“Compared to big banks, small banks hold 4.4-times more exposure to U.S. [CRE] loans than their larger peers,”

Some lenders have stopped all CRE loans. That's previously impossible to imagine. Gonna get bloody in this sector. I was talking to @Chadstroma about this esrlier in the thread, and I wasn't too concerned, but maybe I should be. The cascading effect/collateral damage seems like something to be worried about.

Cities are going to have to rezone these to residential all over the country, and someone is going to have to come in and covert them all into lofts or whatever. Seems like that would solve a couple problems at once.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

I don't think it's credit card debt as a harbinger.

I am interested in the changes in commercial real estate. Citibank just downsized their footprint by 70% outside Chicago.

“Compared to big banks, small banks hold 4.4-times more exposure to U.S. [CRE] loans than their larger peers,”

Some lenders have stopped all CRE loans. That's previously impossible to imagine. Gonna get bloody in this sector. I was talking to @Chadstroma about this esrlier in the thread, and I wasn't too concerned, but maybe I should be. The cascading effect/collateral damage seems like something to be worried about.

Cities are going to have to rezone these to residential all over the country, and someone is going to have to come in and covert them all into lofts or whatever. Seems like that would solve a couple problems at once.

Who will buy or live in all those converted lofts if nobody is working in the downtowns of all these cities?

 

[massraider]

Cities are going to have to rezone these to residential all over the country, and someone is going to have to come in and covert them all into lofts or whatever. Seems like that would solve a couple problems at once.

I know enough about construction to know that the cost to convert won't make this a viable strategy for many of these buildings.

Some will be, and some will find other uses, but not until after a bunch of huge losses happen.

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

Cities are going to have to rezone these to residential all over the country, and someone is going to have to come in and covert them all into lofts or whatever. Seems like that would solve a couple problems at once.

I know enough about construction to know that the cost to convert won't make this a viable strategy for many of these buildings.

Some will be, and some will find other uses, but not until after a bunch of huge losses happen.

I was just reading about this yesterday, but can't find the article now. It was talking about the "green" incentives for converting buildings, etc. But just looking at the office buildings I have worked in over the years and how cheaply they seem to be built, would not want to live in them. Structurally sound I suppose, but no thanks.

 

[BeTheMatch]

I don't think it's credit card debt as a harbinger.

I am interested in the changes in commercial real estate. Citibank just downsized their footprint by 70% outside Chicago.

“Compared to big banks, small banks hold 4.4-times more exposure to U.S. [CRE] loans than their larger peers,”

Some lenders have stopped all CRE loans. That's previously impossible to imagine. Gonna get bloody in this sector. I was talking to @Chadstroma about this esrlier in the thread, and I wasn't too concerned, but maybe I should be. The cascading effect/collateral damage seems like something to be worried about.

Cities are going to have to rezone these to residential all over the country, and someone is going to have to come in and covert them all into lofts or whatever. Seems like that would solve a couple problems at once.

Who will buy or live in all those converted lofts if nobody is working in the downtowns of all these cities?

I wouldn't say nobody is working downtown. If it was lower-income housing, maybe it would work. I don't know.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

I don't think it's credit card debt as a harbinger.

I am interested in the changes in commercial real estate. Citibank just downsized their footprint by 70% outside Chicago.

“Compared to big banks, small banks hold 4.4-times more exposure to U.S. [CRE] loans than their larger peers,”

Some lenders have stopped all CRE loans. That's previously impossible to imagine. Gonna get bloody in this sector. I was talking to @Chadstroma about this esrlier in the thread, and I wasn't too concerned, but maybe I should be. The cascading effect/collateral damage seems like something to be worried about.

Cities are going to have to rezone these to residential all over the country, and someone is going to have to come in and covert them all into lofts or whatever. Seems like that would solve a couple problems at once.

Who will buy or live in all those converted lofts if nobody is working in the downtowns of all these cities?

I wouldn't say nobody is working downtown. If it was lower-income housing, maybe it would work. I don't know.

Hyperbole by me

 

[BeTheMatch]

I don't think it's credit card debt as a harbinger.

I am interested in the changes in commercial real estate. Citibank just downsized their footprint by 70% outside Chicago.

“Compared to big banks, small banks hold 4.4-times more exposure to U.S. [CRE] loans than their larger peers,”

Some lenders have stopped all CRE loans. That's previously impossible to imagine. Gonna get bloody in this sector. I was talking to @Chadstroma about this esrlier in the thread, and I wasn't too concerned, but maybe I should be. The cascading effect/collateral damage seems like something to be worried about.

Cities are going to have to rezone these to residential all over the country, and someone is going to have to come in and covert them all into lofts or whatever. Seems like that would solve a couple problems at once.

Who will buy or live in all those converted lofts if nobody is working in the downtowns of all these cities?

I wouldn't say nobody is working downtown. If it was lower-income housing, maybe it would work. I don't know.

Hyperbole by me

I know. They're going to have to do something. Cities will probably have to incentivize the bejeezuz out of it to get someome to do something.

 

[massraider]

Who will buy or live in all those converted lofts if nobody is working in the downtowns of all these cities?

I think this is really really interesting to think about. Because I think there's a solution there.

My answer to your question is: Renters. Young people. Digital Nomads, a lot of them choose to live in walkable cities that are affordable.

But the city needs to be attractive. Cities need to step up their game on infrastructure, mass transit, and dealing with homeless. That's not the stuff that gets you elected, unfortunately.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Who will buy or live in all those converted lofts if nobody is working in the downtowns of all these cities?

I think this is really really interesting to think about. Because I think there's a solution there.

My answer to your question is: Renters. Young people. Digital Nomads, a lot of them choose to live in walkable cities that are affordable.

But the city needs to be attractive. Cities need to step up their game on infrastructure, mass transit, and dealing with homeless. That's not the stuff that gets you elected, unfortunately.

Yeah, right there with you. I’m biased (negatively) living in crime-infested Chicago. I’m also biased (positively) traveling a ton to NYC for work. There is a possible solution in here somewhere.

 

[Jayrod]

Who will buy or live in all those converted lofts if nobody is working in the downtowns of all these cities?

I think this is really really interesting to think about. Because I think there's a solution there.

My answer to your question is: Renters. Young people. Digital Nomads, a lot of them choose to live in walkable cities that are affordable.

But the city needs to be attractive. Cities need to step up their game on infrastructure, mass transit, and dealing with homeless. That's not the stuff that gets you elected, unfortunately.

Yeah, right there with you. I’m biased (negatively) living in crime-infested Chicago. I’m also biased (positively) traveling a ton to NYC for work. There is a possible solution in here somewhere.

I spent some time doing project management for a multi-family housing developer/GC and the ONLY way they tackled those remodel projects was through governmental tax credit programs. If there wasn't a tax credit incentive (which they sold once secured) they didn't even look into it.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I don't think it's credit card debt as a harbinger.

I am interested in the changes in commercial real estate. Citibank just downsized their footprint by 70% outside Chicago.

“Compared to big banks, small banks hold 4.4-times more exposure to U.S. [CRE] loans than their larger peers,”

Some lenders have stopped all CRE loans. That's previously impossible to imagine. Gonna get bloody in this sector. I was talking to @Chadstroma about this esrlier in the thread, and I wasn't too concerned, but maybe I should be. The cascading effect/collateral damage seems like something to be worried about.

Cities are going to have to rezone these to residential all over the country, and someone is going to have to come in and covert them all into lofts or whatever. Seems like that would solve a couple problems at once.

Who will buy or live in all those converted lofts if nobody is working in the downtowns of all these cities?

Not sure if the numbers work on the reno, but there is an unlimited supply of investors looking to get their foot in the door at commercially zoned short term rental properties in big cities which have mostly banned or at least heavily restricted STRs in residential zoning.

 

[Chadstroma]

I don't think it's credit card debt as a harbinger.

I am interested in the changes in commercial real estate. Citibank just downsized their footprint by 70% outside Chicago.

“Compared to big banks, small banks hold 4.4-times more exposure to U.S. [CRE] loans than their larger peers,”

Some lenders have stopped all CRE loans. That's previously impossible to imagine. Gonna get bloody in this sector. I was talking to @Chadstroma about this esrlier in the thread, and I wasn't too concerned, but maybe I should be. The cascading effect/collateral damage seems like something to be worried about.

I think the thing that is more worrying than anything is that there isn't just one thing to worry about. There are several indications of future significant trouble.

 

[Chadstroma]

One good data point at least for now...

Mortgage delinquency rate falls to lowest level since 1979​

Economic conditions are improving, though rising delinquency rates for other forms of credit point to early signs of consumer credit stress
August 11, 2023, 6:45 am By Sarah Marx

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported that the mortgage delinquency rate fell to its lowest level since it began tracking this metric 43 years ago, supporting claims the economy is on the cusp of a turnaround.
“Buoyed by a resilient job market, homeowners are continuing to make their mortgage payments,” Marina Walsh, the MBA’s vice president of industry analysis, said in a statement.
The seasonally-adjusted delinquency rate for one-to-four-unit residential properties stood at 3.37% in the second quarter of this year, down 27 basis points compared to the same period one year ago and 19 basis points quarter over quarter, the MBA reported. The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started in the second quarter fell by 3 basis points.
Delinquencies across all mortgage types, including conventional, FHA, and VA mortgages fell during the second quarter.
Despite this encouraging news, the MBA reported some signs of consumer-related stress, with delinquencies rising for other forms of credit, including credit cards and car loans, noted Walsh.
In addition, FHA delinquencies rose 10 basis points compared to the year-earlier period, and on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, rose 13 basis points year over year and 71 basis points from the first quarter of 2023.
“As the economy slows and [the] labor market cools, homeowners with FHA loans are likely to feel the distress first,” said Walsh.

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

Fed Saw ‘Significant’ Inflation Risk That May Merit More Hikes

Federal Reserve officials at their policy meeting in July largely remained concerned that inflation would fail to recede and that further interest-rate increases would be needed. At the same time, cracks in that consensus were also becoming more apparent.

www.bloomberg.com

“Minutes from the July FOMC meeting frame the emerging tension between inflation data that is moderating faster than the Fed anticipated and growth data that is coming in stronger than the Fed anticipated,” Evercore ISI economists led by Krishna Guha said in a note after the release. ​

so now some cracks in what seemed to be a consensus of no more rate hikes

 

[massraider]

Meta pays 149 mill to walk away from a building lease
Analysts at investment bank Peel Hunt estimated that Meta’s £149m payment represents “about seven years of rent against the 18 years outstanding on the lease”.

 

[Snoopy]

Meta pays 149 mill to walk away from a building lease
Analysts at investment bank Peel Hunt estimated that Meta’s £149m payment represents “about seven years of rent against the 18 years outstanding on the lease”.

Equivalent to 180.9 million dollars

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

lots of nuggets in this article, including Treasury yields and China buying up gold

Despite the Fed Pause, the Market’s Barometer Is Signaling Danger

Macro Update: Why the 10-Year Treasury Yield Won’t Stop Rising

espresso.jlabsdigital.com

 

[Orange&Blue]

heard that more us companies have filed for bankruptcy already this year than any year since 2010

 

[The General]

Link

Gross domestic product advanced at a 4.3% annualized pace in July-September, according to the median projection in a Bloomberg survey of economists. Such growth illustrates that the US remains the global economic powerhouse as Europe stagnates and Asia contends with a struggling China.

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

Link

Gross domestic product advanced at a 4.3% annualized pace in July-September, according to the median projection in a Bloomberg survey of economists. Such growth illustrates that the US remains the global economic powerhouse as Europe stagnates and Asia contends with a struggling China.

But if I am understanding the macro correctly, "strong or expanding economy" means there will likely be more rate hikes, even if not till 2024, right?

 

[The General]

Link

Gross domestic product advanced at a 4.3% annualized pace in July-September, according to the median projection in a Bloomberg survey of economists. Such growth illustrates that the US remains the global economic powerhouse as Europe stagnates and Asia contends with a struggling China.

But if I am understanding the macro correctly, "strong or expanding economy" means there will likely be more rate hikes, even if not till 2024, right?

I think that is the main tool to slow things down. kind of seems like a catch-22 in some regards.

 

[Sand]

Link

Gross domestic product advanced at a 4.3% annualized pace in July-September, according to the median projection in a Bloomberg survey of economists. Such growth illustrates that the US remains the global economic powerhouse as Europe stagnates and Asia contends with a struggling China.

But if I am understanding the macro correctly, "strong or expanding economy" means there will likely be more rate hikes, even if not till 2024, right?

I think that is the main tool to slow things down. kind of seems like a catch-22 in some regards.

It's the ONLY tool the Fed has, at least one with a big enough knob. That said, it isn't certain that a strong economy means that inflation rises - currently govt. fiscal policy has a large effect. And right now they're spending like water, which floods the market with money and drives inflationary forces. It seems like the Fed is doing just enough to counter the other at the moment. If they both got restrictive at the same time (IMO) inflation would plummet.

 

[Jayrod]

It's the ONLY tool the Fed has, at least one with a big enough knob. That said, it isn't certain that a strong economy means that inflation rises - currently govt. fiscal policy has a large effect. And right now they're spending like water, which floods the market with money and drives inflationary forces. It seems like the Fed is doing just enough to counter the other at the moment. If they both got restrictive at the same time (IMO) inflation would plummet.

But so would the overall economy and that's bad for re-election prospects, so I'll give you one guess what will happen over the next year in regards to Federal spending.

 

[The General]

Link

Gross domestic product advanced at a 4.3% annualized pace in July-September, according to the median projection in a Bloomberg survey of economists. Such growth illustrates that the US remains the global economic powerhouse as Europe stagnates and Asia contends with a struggling China.

But if I am understanding the macro correctly, "strong or expanding economy" means there will likely be more rate hikes, even if not till 2024, right?

I think that is the main tool to slow things down. kind of seems like a catch-22 in some regards.

It's the ONLY tool the Fed has, at least one with a big enough knob. That said, it isn't certain that a strong economy means that inflation rises - currently govt. fiscal policy has a large effect. And right now they're spending like water, which floods the market with money and drives inflationary forces. It seems like the Fed is doing just enough to counter the other at the moment. If they both got restrictive at the same time (IMO) inflation would plummet.

That's exactly what they are trying to do, right? The soft landing. Get us out of the pandemic economy, keeping things "easy", balance out the impacts that has.

 

[The General]

Link

"The mean net worth of an American household, adjusted for inflation, was $1.06 million in 2022, according to the Federal Reserve's consumer finance survey.

In comparison, in 2019 the mean net worth of an average household was $868,000, marking a 23% jump.

Despite the economic challenges brought about by the pandemic and then war in Ukraine, the average household was significantly better off last year than before the pandemic.

Even when looking at the median—another measure of the average, which represents the midpoint in the ranking and is less likely to be skewed by exceptionally high or low numbers—the typical American household was worth $192,900.

Although that figure is less exciting for aspirational workers, it still represents an impressive after-inflation gain of 37% over three years."

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

When I think "economy," I am not just thinking CPI and Inflation and unemployment. I see things like this that give me pause...

Americans falling behind on auto loan payments at record pace

The number of auto borrowers who were at least 60 days behind on their bills hit a record high in September as high borrowing costs squeeze millions of Americans.

www.foxbusiness.com

Once you read, the number itself doesn't look all that intimidating I suppose, but it's just the fact that it's trending heavily in the wrong direction. Another piece of the overall puzzle.

Also, WTF:

In fact, the percentage of consumers paying at least $1,000 a month for a vehicle surged to 17.1% in the second quarter of 2023​

 

[STEADYMOBBIN 22]

Just wait until you guys read about how many people aren’t going to have heat this winter because the gas got shut off and they can’t pay thousands of dollars to get it turned back on. It’ll be bad this year. It’ll be even worse next year.

 

[culdeus]

Just wait until you guys read about how many people aren’t going to have heat this winter because the gas got shut off and they can’t pay thousands of dollars to get it turned back on. It’ll be bad this year. It’ll be even worse next year.

The economy is bifurcated. Nobody cares.

 

[STEADYMOBBIN 22]

Just wait until you guys read about how many people aren’t going to have heat this winter because the gas got shut off and they can’t pay thousands of dollars to get it turned back on. It’ll be bad this year. It’ll be even worse next year.

The economy is bifurcated. Nobody cares.

That’s a five dollar word right there! I’ll have to look that one up and get back to you.

 

[beer 30]

Despite the economic challenges brought about by the pandemic and then war in Ukraine, the average household was significantly better off last year than before the pandemic.

***cough*** ******** ***cough***

That’s a five dollar word right there! I’ll have to look that one up and get back to you.

One of my favorites, here you go:

1. Divided into two branches; forked.
2. Divided into or made up of two parts.

 

[Keerock]

Just wait until you guys read about how many people aren’t going to have heat this winter because the gas got shut off and they can’t pay thousands of dollars to get it turned back on. It’ll be bad this year. It’ll be even worse next year.

The economy is bifurcated. Nobody cares.

Sadly, everyone looks at the state of the economy through a tinted political lens. Statistics/numbers are tweaked to meet the agenda of the presenter.

My anecdotal observations are that everything costs more, wages are stagnant at best, layoffs/outsourcing/etc are impacting jobs, many people I know have multiple jobs to make ends meet. Other than "news" to the contrary, the economy seems to be, and has been in trouble.

 

[Stoneworker]

I would bifurcate the economy differently...along the time dimension.

The massive consumer and federal debt levels are clear indicators that demand was brought forward for the past decade or so with low interest rates and profligate spending.

GDP growth was high and the wealthy class benefited most.

And it's just basic economics that says paying off that debt, either through consumer belt-tightening, high interest rates to slow growth, or high inflation to lower the federal debt, is what lies ahead.

GDP will be low and the middle/lower class will suffer most.

It is an immutable cycle.

 

[Keerock]

I would bifurcate the economy differently...along the time dimension.

The massive consumer and federal debt levels are clear indicators that demand was brought forward for the past decade or so with low interest rates and profligate spending.

GDP growth was high and the wealthy class benefited most.

And it's just basic economics that says paying off that debt, either through consumer belt-tightening, high interest rates to slow growth, or high inflation to lower the federal debt, is what lies ahead.

GDP will be low and the middle/lower class will suffer most.

It is an immutable cycle.

I'm learnding today!

I'm learnding

I just wanted to upload this for fun

www.youtube.com

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Just wait until you guys read about how many people aren’t going to have heat this winter because the gas got shut off and they can’t pay thousands of dollars to get it turned back on. It’ll be bad this year. It’ll be even worse next year.

The economy is bifurcated. Nobody cares.

Sadly, everyone looks at the state of the economy through a tinted political lens. Statistics/numbers are tweaked to meet the agenda of the presenter.

My anecdotal observations are that everything costs more, wages are stagnant at best, layoffs/outsourcing/etc are impacting jobs, many people I know have multiple jobs to make ends meet. Other than "news" to the contrary, the economy seems to be, and has been in trouble.

Prices that skyrocketed thru the pandemic have not rolled back.
I tried to list what food cost at Publix but it doesn't seem to get much traction around here.
Organic cream which I love for my coffee used to be under about $2.25/pint, that same pint is now almost $4
Organic Apples will run you about $4-$5/lb, how many apples are there in 1 pound you ask? Not many...
Beer!!! 12-pack of Corona in bottles will run you close to $25 with tax now...maybe you can occasionally get it on sale for $20
Stuff has gotten pretty expensive

 

[STEADYMOBBIN 22]

Despite the economic challenges brought about by the pandemic and then war in Ukraine, the average household was significantly better off last year than before the pandemic.

***cough*** ******** ***cough***

That’s a five dollar word right there! I’ll have to look that one up and get back to you.

One of my favorites, here you go:

1. Divided into two branches; forked.
2. Divided into or made up of two parts.

I know. I did have to look it up though.

I’m not sure how anyone could possibly be in any other camp than that the economy is down.

When the game is rigged you have to expect some ups and downs and corrections, it’s how the game is kept in motion. The key is guessing (or knowing) which way the game is fixed.

Besides We had to tank it (the economy,) while we rebuild the factories to support the uptick. Demand is kept in check if there’s no money to spend.

I expect some rough times for the better part of a decade and then a boom like we’ve never seen before. Everything will be closer, faster, and more self sufficient.

 

[Dezbelief]

Just wait until you guys read about how many people aren’t going to have heat this winter because the gas got shut off and they can’t pay thousands of dollars to get it turned back on. It’ll be bad this year. It’ll be even worse next year.

The economy is bifurcated. Nobody cares.

Sadly, everyone looks at the state of the economy through a tinted political lens. Statistics/numbers are tweaked to meet the agenda of the presenter.

My anecdotal observations are that everything costs more, wages are stagnant at best, layoffs/outsourcing/etc are impacting jobs, many people I know have multiple jobs to make ends meet. Other than "news" to the contrary, the economy seems to be, and has been in trouble.

Prices that skyrocketed thru the pandemic have not rolled back.
I tried to list what food cost at Publix but it doesn't seem to get much traction around here.
Organic cream which I love for my coffee used to be under about $2.25/pint, that same pint is now almost $4
Organic Apples will run you about $4-$5/lb, how many apples are there in 1 pound you ask? Not many...
Beer!!! 12-pack of Corona in bottles will run you close to $25 with tax now...maybe you can occasionally get it on sale for $20
Stuff has gotten pretty expensive

I was sticker shocked on light bulbs yesterday, almost $4 each at my first two stops.

 

[Raging weasel]

Just wait until you guys read about how many people aren’t going to have heat this winter because the gas got shut off and they can’t pay thousands of dollars to get it turned back on. It’ll be bad this year. It’ll be even worse next year.

The economy is bifurcated. Nobody cares.

Sadly, everyone looks at the state of the economy through a tinted political lens. Statistics/numbers are tweaked to meet the agenda of the presenter.

My anecdotal observations are that everything costs more, wages are stagnant at best, layoffs/outsourcing/etc are impacting jobs, many people I know have multiple jobs to make ends meet. Other than "news" to the contrary, the economy seems to be, and has been in trouble.

Prices that skyrocketed thru the pandemic have not rolled back.
I tried to list what food cost at Publix but it doesn't seem to get much traction around here.
Organic cream which I love for my coffee used to be under about $2.25/pint, that same pint is now almost $4
Organic Apples will run you about $4-$5/lb, how many apples are there in 1 pound you ask? Not many...
Beer!!! 12-pack of Corona in bottles will run you close to $25 with tax now...maybe you can occasionally get it on sale for $20
Stuff has gotten pretty expensive

I was sticker shocked on light bulbs yesterday, almost $4 each at my first two stops.

If you're talking LED bulbs they've actually come down in price. 4-5 years ago they were closer to $10 than $4. I stocked up over the summer when Costco was selling 4 packs for $6.99

 

[General Malaise]

When I think "economy," I am not just thinking CPI and Inflation and unemployment. I see things like this that give me pause...

Americans falling behind on auto loan payments at record pace

The number of auto borrowers who were at least 60 days behind on their bills hit a record high in September as high borrowing costs squeeze millions of Americans.

www.foxbusiness.com

Once you read, the number itself doesn't look all that intimidating I suppose, but it's just the fact that it's trending heavily in the wrong direction. Another piece of the overall puzzle.

Also, WTF:

In fact, the percentage of consumers paying at least $1,000 a month for a vehicle surged to 17.1% in the second quarter of 2023​

That's ridiculous to most of us but with interest rates where they are, the number of people with bad credit and the cost of new cars, this doesn't shock me. It's not anything I'd ever do personally (I've never purchased a new car in my life and won't) but I can see it happening to others who place a greater emphasis on what they drive than I do.

 

[General Malaise]

Just wait until you guys read about how many people aren’t going to have heat this winter because the gas got shut off and they can’t pay thousands of dollars to get it turned back on. It’ll be bad this year. It’ll be even worse next year.

The economy is bifurcated. Nobody cares.

Sadly, everyone looks at the state of the economy through a tinted political lens. Statistics/numbers are tweaked to meet the agenda of the presenter.

My anecdotal observations are that everything costs more, wages are stagnant at best, layoffs/outsourcing/etc are impacting jobs, many people I know have multiple jobs to make ends meet. Other than "news" to the contrary, the economy seems to be, and has been in trouble.

Prices that skyrocketed thru the pandemic have not rolled back.
I tried to list what food cost at Publix but it doesn't seem to get much traction around here.
Organic cream which I love for my coffee used to be under about $2.25/pint, that same pint is now almost $4
Organic Apples will run you about $4-$5/lb, how many apples are there in 1 pound you ask? Not many...
Beer!!! 12-pack of Corona in bottles will run you close to $25 with tax now...maybe you can occasionally get it on sale for $20
Stuff has gotten pretty expensive

I was sticker shocked on light bulbs yesterday, almost $4 each at my first two stops.

Man, I noticed yesterday when I was taking a dump that my underwear had a hole right where it should be catching farts and so I went to the store to buy a few things:

1) Beer - $20.99/12 pack
2) Air filter for the furnace - $16.99
3) Underwear - $44 for a six pack.

I put the underwear back.

 

[beer 30]

I can see it happening to others who place a greater emphasis on what they drive than I do.

My wife bought a new car last year, $42k out the door with Ford X Plan discount. As much as that was, we got out pretty well. Trucks right now are just ridiculous if you buy a new Ford. I don't know how folks do it. My youngest is looking for a new car as her college beater is on it's last legs, trying to find a sensible car under $20k is near to impossible. Feel sorry for kids getting spit out of college right now with **** degree's. Your future isn't looking good without some help. God forbid you have student loans of any value.

I put the underwear back.

Mans got to have priorities