US economy thread (1 Viewer)

[Nathan R. Jessep]

And to the spending, traveling, 35 dollar happy meals and designer coffees - whether they're going into debt or not - the spending HAS to slow down before interest rates will ever come down.

Meh. They're almost certainly going to cut rates at least once before the year ends, maybe twice and possibly three times. Odds on favorite is September for first cut now. They are rapidly approaching the appoint where they HAVE to do something due to a variety of external factors. Other currencies weakening against the dollar, major banking issues boiling, etc. etc. And don't discount the fact it's election season. I think they've kicked the can just about as far down the road as they can (and done a pretty decent job with inflation, all things considered, IMO --talking macro economy here, not ridiculous grocery prices).

ETA: I don't disagree with your angle on spending. And I think we are going to end up in a full blown recession in the next year or two because they are stuck between a rock and a hard place of having to cut rates and not really needing to yet, in addition to the foreign economies adding outside problems for us. Lots of moving parts and our economy is propping up a lot of them.

 

[culdeus]

By that do you mean all the money I put in 401K and other investments just went into a savings account instead?

Whatever outcome you like. Socked it aside in the bank, like you say. Or spent more week-to-week and regularly ran through it. Or some other outcome -- the important part is "How do you make out without ever having had investment income?"

Not nearly as well. My rough math at 45 is I make X in salary and 2X in investment income. Not all of it real income, some on paper. It wasn't always that way.

I don't really even think about stocks, just index and chill. If I thought stonks would still go up like this another 10 years I'd retire now.

 

[dkp993]

Yes, and no. Entry-level has a lot of different connotations that don’t necessarily apply to everything. An entry-level job in manufacturing or at the railroad, etc., is very different than the entry level job as a cashier at McDonald’s or stocking person at Target. I highly doubt your parents were McDonald’s cashiers who bought a piece of land and built a home.

OK,. Take McDonald's out of it.

How about the manager of the machine shop. How about the guy running the kitchen at a restaurant? Running the entire staff in a kitchen, place does 2 mill a year. Should that guy NOT be able to support a wife and kid? Forget buying a house, may as well ask for a unicorn. 50 hours a week, management, in the wealthiest country that has ever existed. That guy should not expect to be able to start a family?

How about a truck driver? Any kind of driver? These jobs take less skill than manufacturing? Than the railroad? Coal miner?

Taking McD’s out of it is my point though. That is an entry level job. And there are tons of positions like that. Those entry level job should hold no obligation to be able to support a family on.
But other “entry level” jobs like the one’s you brought up should be, we agree here. Yet they (“entry level” jobs) get all lumped together like you did with your parents. They shouldn’t imo. Hence my post about better defining what entry level means.

 

[culdeus]

Random Questions for anyone that wants to respond

-Do you feel guilty about doing well and looking at 75% of the population that might be struggling a little bit?
-Do you feel some solace that you did things right when you were younger anticipating hard times ahead even if you didn't know the exact obstacles?
-Did you learn anything from fellow FBGs on here by just reading thru the threads? I got a lot of good investment info from many when I was in my 20s and early 30s on here and I'm not gonna lie, it's helped tremendously. Yes we could be doing even better but we managed to find a decent split between plan for the future and live in the NOW

1) Somewhat. I recognize that I am smart, and lucky that I had advice to get in the right school situation at the right time to hit a big industry.
2) I didn't, got a full ride thru school for high school and my parents just gave me my college money as a trust fund (but not really, just a check). Invested that at the start of tech boom, and now rolling. Kids end up with debt from school, and I went in 1990s, put it in tech stocks and had 4x my college money at graduation. Perfect storm.
3) For sure, but didn't ever really get in on hype stocks. Mostly that period of 2000-2011 where stonks were pretty **** had some good tips in there.

 

[eoMMan]

The cost of housing just makes that impossible today. For reference this would have been 1990 I think, went from a $25k/yr to $20k.

That 20K a year is now like 50K in today's dollars. If I was 22 years old, and making 50K I could find a place to live in most cities in this country

Most likely with roommates, assuming you are talking about talking a city city (not podunk USA). And a lot 22 year olds either have debt from student loans or are still relying on mommy/daddy.

Oh come on now. I realize Huntsville isn’t LA or NYC (understatement) but you can get a decent apartment here for $1100; (higher end can get towards $3k or more). That gets the $50k earner at 30%.
Roommates are probably still a better scenario overall but it’s manageable.

Where is Huntsville? What state?
I’m serious. Don’t know.

And I wasn’t talking about any specific cities, just in general.

This article is saying average rent is about $1,534 in the US. Throw in some student loan debt and I can see how it’s super tight for new college grads.

https://www.apartments.com/rent-market-trends/us/

 

[dkp993]

Yes, and no. Entry-level has a lot of different connotations that don’t necessarily apply to everything. An entry-level job in manufacturing or at the railroad, etc., is very different than the entry level job as a cashier at McDonald’s or stocking person at Target. I highly doubt your parents were McDonald’s cashiers who bought a piece of land and built a home.

OK,. Take McDonald's out of it.

How about the manager of the machine shop. How about the guy running the kitchen at a restaurant? Running the entire staff in a kitchen, place does 2 mill a year. Should that guy NOT be able to support a wife and kid? Forget buying a house, may as well ask for a unicorn. 50 hours a week, management, in the wealthiest country that has ever existed. That guy should not expect to be able to start a family?

How about a truck driver? Any kind of driver? These jobs take less skill than manufacturing? Than the railroad? Coal miner?

And on a side note. Restaurant’s have been my profession for the majority of my career (not now but I’m still in F&B, weddings). So “that guy” I’ve not only been but also managed for 20+yrs. That guy should and for the most part (can’t speak to every restaurant in the world) does make a living wage.

 

[Atomic Punk]

Random Questions for anyone that wants to respond

-Do you feel guilty about doing well and looking at 75% of the population that might be struggling a little bit?
-Do you feel some solace that you did things right when you were younger anticipating hard times ahead even if you didn't know the exact obstacles?
-Did you learn anything from fellow FBGs on here by just reading thru the threads? I got a lot of good investment info from many when I was in my 20s and early 30s on here and I'm not gonna lie, it's helped tremendously. Yes we could be doing even better but we managed to find a decent split between plan for the future and live in the NOW

I hesitated responding in here, as the economy discussion is very US centric, so with me being Canadian, it changes so many of the variables. These questions OTOH are more generic, so I’ll play …

1. No guilt whatsoever. As others have said, paying your dues, grinding , a fortunate upbringing with great parents, and other life decisions led me to where I am, so there is nothing to feel guilty about. We also try as best we can to pay it forward within our communities as much as possible. When I started in the federal government, I started at the same time as a guy who became a friend. I busted my *** at every turn, took additonal assignments, etc. etc, all while buddy was spending his work day checking hockey scores and ****ing the dog. A career/lifetime later, his career never went anywhere and he is still living pay check to pay check, while I am retired at 54. This is why I feel no guilt.

2. Not sure if solace describes my feeling. More like pride and good fortune.

3. I have learned more from the collective wisdom of FBG guys than any of the three mentors I have had the good fortune to have in my lifetime. I do not share a lot on this site typically (although now that I am retired, I hope to participate much more), so if I have not expressed my gratitude to all of you long timers, that is on me … I owe you all a lot. This is much more than fantastic investment advice but rather life advice.

 

[-OZ-]

Where is Huntsville? What state?
I’m serious. Don’t know.

Bama. It’s basically a far extension of the Washington DC area, economically, but FAR cheaper.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Where is Huntsville? What state?
I’m serious. Don’t know.

Bama. It’s basically a far extension of the Washington DC area, economically, but FAR cheaper.

I mean Alabama is always on the cheapest states to live lists. I live in a state right in the middle cost wise and you’re not finding a one bedroom for less than $1500 and that’s a dump. After taxes, making 50k gross you are at near 50% of your income before adding anything else.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

Random Questions for anyone that wants to respond

-Do you feel guilty about doing well and looking at 75% of the population that might be struggling a little bit?
-Do you feel some solace that you did things right when you were younger anticipating hard times ahead even if you didn't know the exact obstacles?
-Did you learn anything from fellow FBGs on here by just reading thru the threads? I got a lot of good investment info from many when I was in my 20s and early 30s on here and I'm not gonna lie, it's helped tremendously. Yes we could be doing even better but we managed to find a decent split between plan for the future and live in the NOW

1) No. We lived below our means, saved monthly, and didn't invest in anything that we (I) didn't understand. It was a very boring road to a good place. There's no good reason why most people couldn't replicate this. Not everybody, sure, but most people can do this.

2) Yes. My wife and I picked up and moved 13 hours away from family just a few months after the birth of our first kid. Money was never really a problem for us (because we're both frugal), but raising our kids entirely on our own brought some real challenges. That experience made us a stronger couple, but it sure would have been nice to have grandparents nearby.

3) Yes, quite a bit. Except for the LHUCKS Get Your Money Out of the Market Now thread of course, but that goes without saying.

 

[-OZ-]

mean Alabama is always on the cheapest states to live lists. I live in a state right in the middle cost wise and you’re not finding a one bedroom for less than $1500 and that’s a dump. After taxes, making 50k gross you are at near 50% of your income before adding anything else.

Yes, although cities matter more than states. Huntsville is consistently on the best value or “best place to live in the US” lists. The rest of the state is cheap, Huntsville is a great value.

 

[SFBayDuck]

and ****ing the dog

Is this some sort of Canadian euphemism? Because **** can't be the 4 letters that instantly come to mind.

 

[Atomic Punk]

and ****ing the dog

Is this some sort of Canadian euphemism? Because **** can't be the 4 letters that instantly come to mind.

I guess it is Canadian, although I always assumed it was international. Basically means being completely lazy and actively trying to avoid work whenever possible.

 

[SFBayDuck]

and ****ing the dog

Is this some sort of Canadian euphemism? Because **** can't be the 4 letters that instantly come to mind.

I guess it is Canadian, although I always assumed it was international. Basically means being completely lazy and actively trying to avoid work whenever possible.

Poor dog.........

 

[FairWarning]

Those jobs are not really meant to be living wage jobs these days.

Yep, and that is the biggest BS that the large corporations have gotten everyone to choke down.

My parents had essentially entry level jobs when they bought a piece of land, built a house, and were raising two kids in the early 80's.

They struggled and sacrificed, it was not easy. But that's not even remotely possible today. And this was in MA

Yes, and no. Entry-level has a lot of different connotations that don’t necessarily apply to everything. An entry-level job in manufacturing or at the railroad, etc., is very different than the entry level job as a cashier at McDonald’s or stocking person at Target. I highly doubt your parents were McDonald’s cashiers who bought a piece of land and built a home.

I think entry-level is really at least two different things. Into the workforce or entry into an industry. An entry-level computer programmer, for example, is into an industry. Being a cashier at McDonald’s is it entry-level into the workforce.

I agree with you. When people talk about living wage jobs, they are almost some sort of service industry job. They’re basically second jobs or dead-end jobs unless you are going into a management program. More adults are working them out of necessity now.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Where is Huntsville? What state?
I’m serious. Don’t know.

Bama. It’s basically a far extension of the Washington DC area, economically, but FAR cheaper.

I mean Alabama is always on the cheapest states to live lists. I live in a state right in the middle cost wise and you’re not finding a one bedroom for less than $1500 and that’s a dump. After taxes, making 50k gross you are at near 50% of your income before adding anything else.

I am dubious that this represents middle of the road. I live outside of Salt Lake City which is high cost of living and where rent prices are considered very high by everyone in the area, and while there are lots of nice/new 1 BRs listed around $1500 there were also plenty of reasonable places in the $750 range and a few others around $1000.

I think I paid around $800/mo for a 1br and then upgraded to a 2br (for only $50 more, but in a sketchier part of town) in central Florida for my first 5 years after college.

 

[STEADYMOBBIN 22]

Those jobs are not really meant to be living wage jobs these days.

Yep, and that is the biggest BS that the large corporations have gotten everyone to choke down.

My parents had essentially entry level jobs when they bought a piece of land, built a house, and were raising two kids in the early 80's.

They struggled and sacrificed, it was not easy. But that's not even remotely possible today. And this was in MA

Yes, and no. Entry-level has a lot of different connotations that don’t necessarily apply to everything. An entry-level job in manufacturing or at the railroad, etc., is very different than the entry level job as a cashier at McDonald’s or stocking person at Target. I highly doubt your parents were McDonald’s cashiers who bought a piece of land and built a home.

I think entry-level is really at least two different things. Into the workforce or entry into an industry. An entry-level computer programmer, for example, is into an industry. Being a cashier at McDonald’s is it entry-level into the workforce.

I agree with you. When people talk about living wage jobs, they are almost some sort of service industry job. They’re basically second jobs or dead-end jobs unless you are going into a management program. More adults are working them out of necessity now.

If a person chooses to work at a job and never looks for more, what are we gonna do about that?

I would suggest that we teach people how to handle their money and credit in grade school but that’s not gonna happen.

 

[FairWarning]

Those jobs are not really meant to be living wage jobs these days.

Yep, and that is the biggest BS that the large corporations have gotten everyone to choke down.

My parents had essentially entry level jobs when they bought a piece of land, built a house, and were raising two kids in the early 80's.

They struggled and sacrificed, it was not easy. But that's not even remotely possible today. And this was in MA

Yes, and no. Entry-level has a lot of different connotations that don’t necessarily apply to everything. An entry-level job in manufacturing or at the railroad, etc., is very different than the entry level job as a cashier at McDonald’s or stocking person at Target. I highly doubt your parents were McDonald’s cashiers who bought a piece of land and built a home.

I think entry-level is really at least two different things. Into the workforce or entry into an industry. An entry-level computer programmer, for example, is into an industry. Being a cashier at McDonald’s is it entry-level into the workforce.

I agree with you. When people talk about living wage jobs, they are almost some sort of service industry job. They’re basically second jobs or dead-end jobs unless you are going into a management program. More adults are working them out of necessity now.

If a person chooses to work at a job and never looks for more, what are we gonna do about that?

I would suggest that we teach people how to handle their money and credit in grade school but that’s not gonna happen.

Then they will have little. Obviously each situation is different. Big corporations can absorb wage increases far better than a small business though. I agree that high schools should teach more about finance.

 

[eoMMan]

Florida has gone bonkers in cost of living over the past 15 years. When my wife and I moved down in 2009, we got a 1 bedroom apartment for $515/month. That same apartment has more than doubled (probably tripled…haven’t looked recently). It really is nuts how much everything has gone up.

 

[Ridgeback]

I'm starting to see that certain industries are certainly hit harder than others. I've been selling SaaS solutions for a good part of the last fifteen years and have never seen a harder time to land a position. The company I previously worked for had gone from a head count of 57 when I was hired in 2021 to 33 when I was laid off in April. Originally I was one of six sales managers, I was one of two before being let go.

From what I surmise, with the higher interest rates there is much less VC money to pump the system, and companies are contracting at a rapid rate and have been for quite some time.

LinkedIn is a very depressing place to be networking/job hunting. I've had multiple recruiters in the SaaS space tell me they've never seen it this bad.

Are you still looking?

Absolutely. Theres a few industries I refuse to work in, but yes, I'm very much still looking.

Fellow SaaS guy here . Send me a PM and happy to connect on LI and forward you anything I come across. I'm still getting hit up by recruiters regularly, but definitely less so than in the past.

In SaaS as well and can possibly help

Although curious about the industries you refuse to work in...

Much appreciated...I don't want to work in any insurance verticals and most financial verticals. I've always had a problem selling anything where I'm supposed to solicit to my circle of influence. I understand plenty of others have no problem with it, but I can't.

After being an internet manager at a Nissan dealership about 20 years ago, for about three months, I can't go down the automotive path either.

My experience lies with working with local businesses, with a focus on restaurants while an account executive for OpenTable for a number of years. That being said, I've also sold products and SaaS services nationally for a few companies as well.

 

[fruity pebbles]

I’m just thankful I’ve been fortunate enough not to be an adult working at McDonalds at this stage in my life. I was craving a burger and only have a McD near me ordered a quarter pounder on the app. Went to pick it up and there’s probably a dozen orders on the screen if not more. Three people working there running around crazily. Nobody at the counter, just two kiosks to order electronically. Lady probably about my age with a headset on taking orders from the drive through, putting stuff in bags and grabbing all drinks, ice creams etc. People barking at her cause it took probably 25-30 minutes to get an order. McDonald’s may be paying $20 an hour in some spots but they’re going to cut staff to the bare minimum and you are going to work for it. I’m guessing most of these fast food franchises are one person operations soon.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Random Questions for anyone that wants to respond

-Do you feel guilty about doing well and looking at 75% of the population that might be struggling a little bit?
-Do you feel some solace that you did things right when you were younger anticipating hard times ahead even if you didn't know the exact obstacles?
-Did you learn anything from fellow FBGs on here by just reading thru the threads? I got a lot of good investment info from many when I was in my 20s and early 30s on here and I'm not gonna lie, it's helped tremendously. Yes we could be doing even better but we managed to find a decent split between plan for the future and live in the NOW

1) No. We lived below our means, saved monthly, and didn't invest in anything that we (I) didn't understand. It was a very boring road to a good place. There's no good reason why most people couldn't replicate this. Not everybody, sure, but most people can do this.

2) Yes. My wife and I picked up and moved 13 hours away from family just a few months after the birth of our first kid. Money was never really a problem for us (because we're both frugal), but raising our kids entirely on our own brought some real challenges. That experience made us a stronger couple, but it sure would have been nice to have grandparents nearby.

3) Yes, quite a bit. Except for the LHUCKS Get Your Money Out of the Market Now thread of course, but that goes without saying.

To you and everyone who took the time to answer my quick little questions, I appreciate it.
I was curious if guilt was a factor in some of these posts and discussions, sounds like the answer so far is NO

 

[the moops]

Where is Huntsville? What state?
I’m serious. Don’t know.

Bama. It’s basically a far extension of the Washington DC area, economically, but FAR cheaper.

I mean Alabama is always on the cheapest states to live lists. I live in a state right in the middle cost wise and you’re not finding a one bedroom for less than $1500 and that’s a dump. After taxes, making 50k gross you are at near 50% of your income before adding anything else.

What state/city we talking about?

Twin Cities has gotta be in the middle cost wise I think and if I got to apartments.com there are approximately 5000 apartments for rent that are under $1500. Sure, a whole bunch are dumps, but in my quick look at least half of them are fine places. Maybe not in a super convenient location, or maybe not the most updated place. But I remember paying a grand a month 15 years ago for a ****ty place

 

[fruity pebbles]

Where is Huntsville? What state?
I’m serious. Don’t know.

Bama. It’s basically a far extension of the Washington DC area, economically, but FAR cheaper.

I mean Alabama is always on the cheapest states to live lists. I live in a state right in the middle cost wise and you’re not finding a one bedroom for less than $1500 and that’s a dump. After taxes, making 50k gross you are at near 50% of your income before adding anything else.

What state/city we talking about?

Twin Cities has gotta be in the middle cost wise I think and if I got to apartments.com there are approximately 5000 apartments for rent that are under $1500. Sure, a whole bunch are dumps, but in my quick look at least half of them are fine places. Maybe not in a super convenient location, or maybe not the most updated place. But I remember paying a grand a month 15 years ago for a ****ty place

Maine, Portland

 

[Terminalxylem]

For those who think we aren't doing so hot, what exactly constitutes a "good" economy? Full disclosure: I've never taken an economics class, so am quite ignorant on the topic.

But there are many articles which describe the divergence between economic indicators and people's feelings. Here's one

If the United States’ economy were an athlete, right now it would be peak LeBron James. If it were a pop star, it would be peak Taylor Swift. Four years ago, the pandemic temporarily brought much of the world economy to a halt. Since then, America’s economic performance has left other countries in the dust and even broken some of its own records. The growth rate is high, the unemployment rate is at historic lows, household wealth is surging, and wages are rising faster than costs, especially for the working class. There are many ways to define a good economy. America is in tremendous shape according to just about any of them.

 

[massraider]

For those who think we aren't doing so hot, what exactly constitutes a "good" economy? Full disclosure: I've never taken an economics class, so am quite ignorant on the topic.

But there are many articles which describe the divergence between economic indicators and people's feelings. Here's one

I think we can have massive wealth inequality in the country, commercial real estate headed for massive losses, a bunch of startups failing that have been propped up by cheap money, rising debt, and still have a good economy.

 

[eoMMan]

For those who think we aren't doing so hot, what exactly constitutes a "good" economy? Full disclosure: I've never taken an economics class, so am quite ignorant on the topic.

But there are many articles which describe the divergence between economic indicators and people's feelings. Here's one

I think we can have massive wealth inequality in the country, commercial real estate headed for massive losses, a bunch of startups failing that have been propped up by cheap money, rising debt, and still have a good economy.

Yup, pretty much this. You can have a great economy on paper based on things like a high performing stock market, low employment rates, etc but it doesn’t always translate the same to the economies of low to middle class families going about their normal day to day lives.

 

[massraider]

Yup, pretty much this. You can have a great economy on paper based on things like a high performing stock market, low employment rates, etc but it doesn’t always translate the same to the economies of low to middle class families going about their normal day to day lives.

Just the AI startups alone in this country, and the potential for these means the US economy has a bright future.

We are definitely grading on a curve here.

 

[Desert_Power]

For those who think we aren't doing so hot, what exactly constitutes a "good" economy? Full disclosure: I've never taken an economics class, so am quite ignorant on the topic.

But there are many articles which describe the divergence between economic indicators and people's feelings. Here's one

If the United States’ economy were an athlete, right now it would be peak LeBron James. If it were a pop star, it would be peak Taylor Swift. Four years ago, the pandemic temporarily brought much of the world economy to a halt. Since then, America’s economic performance has left other countries in the dust and even broken some of its own records. The growth rate is high, the unemployment rate is at historic lows, household wealth is surging, and wages are rising faster than costs, especially for the working class. There are many ways to define a good economy. America is in tremendous shape according to just about any of them.

I’d say it is more like Lakers Shaq. Putting up impressive, all-time stats while still missing too many free throws.

 

[Ilov80s]

For those who think we aren't doing so hot, what exactly constitutes a "good" economy? Full disclosure: I've never taken an economics class, so am quite ignorant on the topic.

But there are many articles which describe the divergence between economic indicators and people's feelings. Here's one

I think we can have massive wealth inequality in the country, commercial real estate headed for massive losses, a bunch of startups failing that have been propped up by cheap money, rising debt, and still have a good economy.

Yup, pretty much this. You can have a great economy on paper based on things like a high performing stock market, low employment rates, etc but it doesn’t always translate the same to the economies of low to middle class families going about their normal day to day lives.

I get that but it’s tough but the lower middle class/working class families I know who complain about the economy all have things like multiple pets, huge flat screen TVs in most rooms of the house, relatively new trucks, kids have nice used cars, they go to the movies and MLB games and on vacations regularly, eat out multiple nights a week, etc. Oh and they own a home. I’m not judging them and and I’m sure they have a lot of debt but it sure looks like their life is materially quite comfortable.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

For those who think we aren't doing so hot, what exactly constitutes a "good" economy? Full disclosure: I've never taken an economics class, so am quite ignorant on the topic.

But there are many articles which describe the divergence between economic indicators and people's feelings. Here's one

If the United States’ economy were an athlete, right now it would be peak LeBron James. If it were a pop star, it would be peak Taylor Swift. Four years ago, the pandemic temporarily brought much of the world economy to a halt. Since then, America’s economic performance has left other countries in the dust and even broken some of its own records. The growth rate is high, the unemployment rate is at historic lows, household wealth is surging, and wages are rising faster than costs, especially for the working class. There are many ways to define a good economy. America is in tremendous shape according to just about any of them.

I’d say it is more like Lakers Shaq. Putting up impressive, all-time stats while still missing too many free throws.

Who is Brian Shaw in this analogy?

 

[Sleestak]

For those who think we aren't doing so hot, what exactly constitutes a "good" economy? Full disclosure: I've never taken an economics class, so am quite ignorant on the topic.

But there are many articles which describe the divergence between economic indicators and people's feelings. Here's one

I think we can have massive wealth inequality in the country, commercial real estate headed for massive losses, a bunch of startups failing that have been propped up by cheap money, rising debt, and still have a good economy.

Yep. The economy is good. The system itself is corporatized and somewhat heartless. Wealth is being harvested at the margins and from all directions, from the ordinary Joe to big business. Ordinary Joe has to work harder and longer to match prior standard of living. At least currently wage growth is keeping up, although that is under attack as a bad thing for all the usual reasons from the usual suspects. In the end, the side with the power will win the shoving match.

Counterpoint is that current generations aren't as proficient at scrimping and saving. And no, one person working a service job like McDs shouldn't expect to be able to raise a family or buy a SFH. You are not creating enough value to afford that. And finally, you are fairly free and educationally/economically mobile in this country and you have the agency to try to improve your circumstances, with a fair chance of finding success.

 

[stbugs]

Where is Huntsville? What state?
I’m serious. Don’t know.

Bama. It’s basically a far extension of the Washington DC area, economically, but FAR cheaper.

I mean Alabama is always on the cheapest states to live lists. I live in a state right in the middle cost wise and you’re not finding a one bedroom for less than $1500 and that’s a dump. After taxes, making 50k gross you are at near 50% of your income before adding anything else.

I am dubious that this represents middle of the road. I live outside of Salt Lake City which is high cost of living and where rent prices are considered very high by everyone in the area, and while there are lots of nice/new 1 BRs listed around $1500 there were also plenty of reasonable places in the $750 range and a few others around $1000.

I think I paid around $800/mo for a 1br and then upgraded to a 2br (for only $50 more, but in a sketchier part of town) in central Florida for my first 5 years after college.

My nephew (just graduated) lives in a nice area of downtown Charlotte next to the Stadiums and pays right around that for a nice 1 bedroom in a building with a gym and pool. My oldest son has been out of college for a year now and is saving a good amount because he lives in a house in the middle of Raleigh with 2 roommates from high school. They pay about $600 per person.

We didn’t buy our first house until we were 27/28. It’ll be interesting to see where both of them are in 5 years.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Yup, pretty much this. You can have a great economy on paper based on things like a high performing stock market, low employment rates, etc but it doesn’t always translate the same to the economies of low to middle class families going about their normal day to day lives.

Truth. But we've never had a perfect economy, so everything is relative. And relatively speaking this economy is incredible.

 

[Max Power]

For those who think we aren't doing so hot, what exactly constitutes a "good" economy? Full disclosure: I've never taken an economics class, so am quite ignorant on the topic.

But there are many articles which describe the divergence between economic indicators and people's feelings. Here's one

I think we can have massive wealth inequality in the country, commercial real estate headed for massive losses, a bunch of startups failing that have been propped up by cheap money, rising debt, and still have a good economy.

Yep. The economy is good. The system itself is corporatized and somewhat heartless. Wealth is being harvested at the margins and from all directions, from the ordinary Joe to big business. Ordinary Joe has to work harder and longer to match prior standard of living. At least currently wage growth is keeping up, although that is under attack as a bad thing for all the usual reasons from the usual suspects. In the end, the side with the power will win the shoving match.

Counterpoint is that current generations aren't as proficient at scrimping and saving. And no, one person working a service job like McDs shouldn't expect to be able to raise a family or buy a SFH. You are not creating enough value to afford that. And finally, you are fairly free and mobile in this country and you have the agency to try to improve your circumstances, with a fair chance of finding success.

I think you've identified two trendlines that worry me when we call this the "LeBron James" of US economies. Our course isn't sustainable, and the bulk of Americans are falling into more and more credit card debt each month. The buy now and pay latter scheme is another booming enterprise that has more Americans falling behind on each month. Those numbers aren't even added to the US consumer credit card debt number.

I also don't agree with the statement that wage growth is keeping up with inflation. Currently it may be but looking over the last 3 years it has not. I can confirm my wages as a Federal worker have not.

 

[-OZ-]

I can confirm my wages as a Federal worker have not.

If you’re staying in the same GS grade, you’re right. My income has, only because I went from 13 equivalent to 14 equivalent. (Acqdemo) But for the rest of my federal career my jumps will be limited unless I leave my organization - there’s one 15 position I’d be qualified, but that’s going to be tough to get and I don’t think the incumbent is leaving any time soon.

 

[Max Power]

I can confirm my wages as a Federal worker have not.

If you’re staying in the same GS grade, you’re right. My income has, only because I went from 13 equivalent to 14 equivalent. (Acqdemo) But for the rest of my federal career my jumps will be limited unless I leave my organization - there’s one 15 position I’d be qualified, but that’s going to be tough to get and I don’t think the incumbent is leaving any time soon.

I'm pretty much capped as a 13 where I'm at. We only have three 14 slots within my entire Brigade I'd qualify for and that includes the civilian deputy. I only have 3 step increases left as well. I like my job and location so I'm not going to complain too much right now. My overall point is that the largest employer in the US hasn't even kept up with inflation.

 

[-OZ-]

I can confirm my wages as a Federal worker have not.

If you’re staying in the same GS grade, you’re right. My income has, only because I went from 13 equivalent to 14 equivalent. (Acqdemo) But for the rest of my federal career my jumps will be limited unless I leave my organization - there’s one 15 position I’d be qualified, but that’s going to be tough to get and I don’t think the incumbent is leaving any time soon.

I'm pretty much capped as a 13 where I'm at. We only have three 14 slots within my entire Brigade I'd qualify for and that includes the civilian deputy. I only have 3 step increases left as well. I like my job and location so I'm not going to complain too much right now. My overall point is that the largest employer in the US hasn't even kept up with inflation.

Agreed, and your point is on point.
It’s not good when routine raises for longevity (assuming sufficient performance) plus broad increases across the board don’t keep up with inflation.

 

[-OZ-]

OTOH, this week has been awesome for investors. I think we’ll have gained more this week than I earn in 3 months.

 

[Max Power]

I can confirm my wages as a Federal worker have not.

If you’re staying in the same GS grade, you’re right. My income has, only because I went from 13 equivalent to 14 equivalent. (Acqdemo) But for the rest of my federal career my jumps will be limited unless I leave my organization - there’s one 15 position I’d be qualified, but that’s going to be tough to get and I don’t think the incumbent is leaving any time soon.

I'm pretty much capped as a 13 where I'm at. We only have three 14 slots within my entire Brigade I'd qualify for and that includes the civilian deputy. I only have 3 step increases left as well. I like my job and location so I'm not going to complain too much right now. My overall point is that the largest employer in the US hasn't even kept up with inflation.

Agreed, and your point is on point.
It’s not good when routine raises for longevity (assuming sufficient performance) plus broad increases across the board don’t keep up with inflation.

I think (hope) we'll get back to a point where it does outpace inflation. Sadly the proposal this year is only a 2% raise.

 

[Grahamburn]

I’m just thankful I’ve been fortunate enough not to be an adult working at McDonalds at this stage in my life. I was craving a burger and only have a McD near me ordered a quarter pounder on the app. Went to pick it up and there’s probably a dozen orders on the screen if not more. Three people working there running around crazily. Nobody at the counter, just two kiosks to order electronically. Lady probably about my age with a headset on taking orders from the drive through, putting stuff in bags and grabbing all drinks, ice creams etc. People barking at her cause it took probably 25-30 minutes to get an order. McDonald’s may be paying $20 an hour in some spots but they’re going to cut staff to the bare minimum and you are going to work for it. I’m guessing most of these fast food franchises are one person operations soon.

Exactly.

 

[-OZ-]

was curious if guilt was a factor in some of these posts and discussions, sounds like the answer so far is NO

Yeah, it’s one thing to recognize that we’re lucky / fortunate. It’s another to feel guilt about decades of doing mostly the right things while many others whine after not doing the same things.
I do feel for those who have bad things happen out of their control, we can help in many ways.
For example, my wife is currently on a ten day tour of hospitals in Texas, advocating for patients and patients parents / caregivers with a group of medical professionals. That might not help all poor people but I believe it makes a positive impact in many lives.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

was curious if guilt was a factor in some of these posts and discussions, sounds like the answer so far is NO

Yeah, it’s one thing to recognize that we’re lucky / fortunate. It’s another to feel guilt about decades of doing mostly the right things while many others whine after not doing the same things.
I do feel for those who have bad things happen out of their control, we can help in many ways.
For example, my wife is currently on a ten day tour of hospitals in Texas, advocating for patients and patients parents / caregivers with a group of medical professionals. That might not help all poor people but I believe it makes a positive impact in many lives.

Luck really does play a big role in our lives. But I think people mistake "luck that dramatically alters your personal life story" vs. "luck that dramatically alters your economic standing."

The luckiest break ever got when I was young was being turned down for a faculty job at a college in Atlanta -- a job I definitely would have taken -- and "settling" for a position at my current institution 25 years ago. The result of that event, which was entirely outside my control, resulted in me buying an affordable house in a shockingly nice small town less than 10 minutes away from my office. That made a massive difference in my quality of life, and I've had many more opportunities for upward professional movement here than I would have had there. That was sheer luck, and I am very aware of that.

(Also, I got very lucky that a random hot chick sat next to me on the first day of a summer school class, and I decided what the hell, why not hit on her while the opportunity presents itself. Thirty years and two kids later . . .)

But if I had landed in Altanta, I still would have been fine. My cars would have a lot more miles on them and I wouldn't like the weather so much, but I would still be on roughly the same retirement timeline that I'm now, because I now realize that my wife and I would have adjusted our spending to make it happen. Barring a major medical event or something, there was never any timeline in which we weren't comfortable in our 50s.

 

[Keerock]

But if I had landed in Altanta, I still would have been fine. My cars would have a lot more miles on them and I wouldn't like the weather so much, but I would still be on roughly the same retirement timeline that I'm now, because I now realize that my wife and I would have adjusted our spending to make it happen. Barring a major medical event or something, there was never any timeline in which we weren't comfortable in our 50s.

And then you would have had to live in Atlanta...

 

[SoBeDad]

Regarding the luck factor, over 40% of first marriages end in divorce, and even more second marriages end in divorce. That's like flipping a coin.

Divorce takes an economic toll on both parties, especially for older people who have less time to catch up, and more so for women. I speak from experience, it's cheaper to keep em.

 

[Gally]

The luckiest break ever got when I was young was being turned down for a faculty job at a college in Atlanta -- a job I definitely would have taken -- and "settling" for a position at my current institution 25 years ago. The result of that event, which was entirely outside my control, resulted in me buying an affordable house in a shockingly nice small town less than 10 minutes away from my office. That made a massive difference in my quality of life, and I've had many more opportunities for upward professional movement here than I would have had there. That was sheer luck, and I am very aware of that.

"Luck" led to your opportunities/location/etc but you still accomplished the things needed to succeed once you had that opportunity. There are definitely things along the way that push or pull you certain directions but you still have to do the right things in those situations to succeed and benefit. I think in a lot of ways;/situations you can contribute to making your own "luck" but when people give up, whine, and complain without continuing to try they will never make their own "luck". I see that as being a problem more and more.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Regarding the luck factor, over 40% of first marriages end in divorce, and even more second marriages end in divorce. That's like flipping a coin.

Divorce takes an economic toll on both parties, especially for older people who have less time to catch up, and more so for women. I speak from experience, it's cheaper to keep em.

Probably the #1 thing on building wealth…….finding a partner who is on the same page financially and not getting divorced. Unfortunately, I failed miserably at that.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Yup, pretty much this. You can have a great economy on paper based on things like a high performing stock market, low employment rates, etc but it doesn’t always translate the same to the economies of low to middle class families going about their normal day to day lives.

Truth. But we've never had a perfect economy, so everything is relative. And relatively speaking this economy is incredible.

Yeah. If this is a bad economy, I'd be interested in what people's examples of a good one are. Every economy, even the best ones, are weak/difficult in certain areas and/or certain demographics.

Feels like at this point we need a major recession to remind people what living in a bad economy actually looks like.

 

[-OZ-]

Regarding the luck factor, over 40% of first marriages end in divorce, and even more second marriages end in divorce. That's like flipping a coin.

Even if it were 50%, a marriage isn’t like flipping a coin. You have some control in the marriage. You can work on it, and have choices before getting into it.
Some spouses flip at some point to a different person, and people grow apart but a marriage still isn’t pure chance.

 

[Gally]

Regarding the luck factor, over 40% of first marriages end in divorce, and even more second marriages end in divorce. That's like flipping a coin.

Even if it were 50%, a marriage isn’t like flipping a coin. You have some control in the marriage. You can work on it, and have choices before getting into it.
Some spouses flip at some point to a different person, and people grow apart but a marriage still isn’t pure chance.

I also think the mentality of many people also treat marriage as a disposable item. It gets tough or not what they thought so lets just divorce. I don't think people take it as serious as it was once taken. I think that skews the rates a bit because of that.