US economy thread (3 Viewers)

[Terminalxylem]

I’m not aware of communism gaining much traction in the US. Outside of a few college campuses (where alternative philosophies have always been embraced, at least in our lifetimes), where is communism apparent? Chinese influence, sure, but hardly a move to global communism imo.

Yeah, we can't talk about that.

You got me...it's politics.

Seriously though, I'll take a DM if someone cares to educate me. Don't follow the news at all, but I feel like I'd have heard something it were as pervasive as Ivan is suggesting.

 

[Terminalxylem]

And if your version of history goes back only 100 or even 200 years, you are fooling yourself thinking this is some permanent cycle of growth and wealth we are in.

The problem is that basically nobody agrees with you. I do, but nobody else does. Those people vote, and their vote counts the same as ours.

People living in the US generally operate under the theory that the US is immune from history, and we're immune from the problems that have caused other great powers to decline over time. That is very much not the case, and I would argue that the US is already in sharp and irreversible decline. The problem is that none of the metrics that I would use to defend that view are admissible in this forum, so I'll just leave that as a raw assertion. IYKYK.

More generally though, folks just don't understand history, and in particular they don't really understand US history. For example, it is 2024. The Battle of Little Big Horn, in which a US Army division was literally annihilated by a group of stone-age warriors, was less than 150 years ago. Our grandparents would have had direct access to people who were were there. Fast forward a bit to WWI. When the US entered WWI, we were an afterthought. Our military probably would have been routed by the likes of Poland. Horses were still being used in warfare back then, and we think of that as part of the "modern" era.

We've been a global superpower for about three or four generations. That's it. The UK fell from a much higher perch to also-ran status during that exact same period. It can happen to us, and it is happening to us. I recommend looking out for yourself.

Meh. What consequence of not being the world’s top superpower concerns you? How far do you think we’ll fall?

Who the next superpower is is what concerns me.

Not a fan of what a China/Russia/Iran centric world domination would be like.

Sure. Of those three, China is the most realistic to take our place. Not ideal, but I’m not concerned what that would mean for the US.

What consequence do you fear from China at the top?

A move to global communism. Less freedoms and more top down governmental control in all aspects of life. Basically the opposite of what the US was founded on. Maybe eventually their commitment to atheism and the lack of morality to the point that eugenics becomes the only logical conclusion. Ordered births and governmental control of who is fit to live or die or move or work job X or how much everyone can earn and what a good life is like.

Those consequences. Sure not in my lifetime, but in a couple of generations? Not too far fetched.

Agree to disagree on the plausibility of most of your fears, and a little irritated by the atheism=immorality trope.

There's really a much stronger argument to made that religion = immorality.

Then go ahead. Let's hear you make the argument.

Way off topic for this thread. There are I believe two separate religion threads already going on where people have debated that a few times. Let's keep this one on topic.

So you can encourage the topic by Liking his post, yet when I challenge the boast it somehow crosses the line? Buzz off.

It's not too hard to find examples or immorality amongst the religious. Let's be real.

Even as a non-believer, I'll concede religion is the basis for morality in many, if not most people. Rotten people doing bad things in the name of religion doesn't change that.

But I wouldn't be surprised if the typical atheist behaves more ethically than the average believer.

Data from the Federal Bureau of Prisons suggest that atheists are far less likely to commit crimes than religious people, and globally the least religious countries have the lowest crime rates. This is of course correlational evidence: it does not mean that being an atheist leads to committing fewer crimes. But the intuition that our study reveals, i.e. that atheists are immoral, is definitely not supported by reality.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

I’m not aware of communism gaining much traction in the US. Outside of a few college campuses (where alternative philosophies have always been embraced, at least in our lifetimes), where is communism apparent? Chinese influence, sure, but hardly a move to global communism imo.

Yeah, we can't talk about that.

You got me...it's politics.

Seriously though, I'll take a DM if someone cares to educate me. Don't follow the news at all, but I feel like I'd have heard something it were as pervasive as Ivan is suggesting.

I'm not saying that China is going to turn the US into a communist nation. I'm saying that China is aiding and abetting political destabilization in the US. That's plainly true.

Why would China care whether we were communist or not? They just want us to take another couple of steps back.

 

[Gawain]

So for the 2-3 of you ever so subtly hinting that the US society and economy will devolve into a dystopian hellscape any day now, mostly thanks to these darn lazy kids, what countries will take the baton going forward? Because that’s what has happened throughout history. When we fall, someone steps into the vacuum, right? So who is up next?

China’s economy is a giant mess, even worse than they’ll ever let on, so that doesn’t seem likely. India? While we talk about pets and concerts, 60% of their population lives on $3.10 or less a day. A seceded People’s Republic of California? Borat leading the Republic of Kazakhstan to glory? Who is doing it so much better and will be in position to take advantage of our imminent implosion?

Asking for a friend looking for investment opportunities.

Nobody has to replace us at the top. The notion of a global hegemon is a relatively recent thing. The current international order is totally different than the one that we grew up with, for example. We grew up in bipolar world, and that world ceased to exist around 1990. Then we went through a period of US hegemony, which ended a decade or so ago (this was a much more gradual process, not anything dramatic like the fall of the Soviet Union). Maybe China or somebody will surpass everybody else, but that isn't going to happen tomorrow and it might never happen. Who knows.

Also, with regard to the dystopia part, you can't expect a revolution. There isn't going to be a PSA announcing "We are now in a dystopia -- kindly proceed accordingly." Sometimes countries just degrade. I could point to examples like the UK and Canada, but why look overseas when you already have a front-row view to how this sort of thing plays out?

If you would like a non-political example of what societal degradation looks like, ask yourself how it is that the US was able to put a guy on the moon before I was even born, and now we just leave astronauts stranded in space because we can't figure out how to get them back to earth. That's just one little data point. Look around and see if you can notice any others.

Big fan, but I think your last point badly misses the mark.

The outcome of the first moon landing was never guaranteed. The text of Nixon's speech in the case of failure makes the rounds every few years as a reminder of the risk and danger inherent in the mission. Less than three years prior to the first landing, the first great American Space tragedy occurred when Apollo 1 burst into flames while it was still on the ground. The X-15 disaster occurred later that year. To hit JFK's promise some safety was sacrificed for knowledge. Certainly you're not advocating that we're too safe now with our astronaut's lives?

Fast forward 19 years and we lose Challenger. Perhaps the defining moment in a late Gen-Xers life until 9/11/01. Wheeled into the classroom so that millions of school kids could see a cherished teacher (and six others) die. How come? Because of a failure that had been known about for almost 10 years and because Management decided to overrule the Engineers on a decision to delay the launch. Back in '86, as America ascended to the hegemony, I and my cohorts were introduced to tragedy because of greed. https://www.washingtonpost.com/arch...erruled/3627b12c-e28f-4461-b20e-ca4e21be144c/

Skip forward another 17 years and we then lose Columbia. Again, a problem is noted. The discarded foam from launch may have caused a problem. This time, NASA decides not to investigate because there's no corrective action to take if there is a problem. 34 years after Nixon had a speech prepared in case of disaster, we're still at the point where there's no hope for someone that has a problem in space. The 7 Columbia astronauts were not informed and were left, again as Armstrong, Aldrin and Collins were, to luck and fate.

We are currently in the longest stretch of space flight without the loss of American life since Shepard in '61. We have evolved past trusting to luck, fate or God. We no longer have to accept "men are laying down their lives in mankind's most noble goal." There has been some push back in the name of safety and information to prevent corporate management from proceeding with a space flight that can be done with less risk. There is greater information shared with the brave men and women that are expanding our knowledge of our planet, our universe and our selves.

We have evolved beyond the first 50 years of space flight and it is a national tragedy it is not celebrated more.

 

[Stoneworker]

It's not too hard to find examples or immorality amongst the religious. Let's be real.

The statement wasn't "find some examples of immorality amongst the religious." It was "religion = immorality." Learn to read.

 

[Joe Bryant]

This can be a good thread but please don't let it get into politics. May not be possible and the thread may have to go but please try. Thank you.

 

[Joe Bryant]

And please be more cool to each other. Right on cue with politics was the snarky insulting stuff. Please don't do that.

 

[RCon]

It's not too hard to find examples or immorality amongst the religious. Let's be real.

The statement wasn't "find some examples of immorality amongst the religious." It was "religion = immorality." Learn to read.

To be clear, that wasn't the statement. The statement was "There's really a much stronger argument to be made that religion = immorality" (as compared to atheism = immorality). That's not remotely the same thing as a flat "religion = immorality".

 

[IvanKaramazov]

So for the 2-3 of you ever so subtly hinting that the US society and economy will devolve into a dystopian hellscape any day now, mostly thanks to these darn lazy kids, what countries will take the baton going forward? Because that’s what has happened throughout history. When we fall, someone steps into the vacuum, right? So who is up next?

China’s economy is a giant mess, even worse than they’ll ever let on, so that doesn’t seem likely. India? While we talk about pets and concerts, 60% of their population lives on $3.10 or less a day. A seceded People’s Republic of California? Borat leading the Republic of Kazakhstan to glory? Who is doing it so much better and will be in position to take advantage of our imminent implosion?

Asking for a friend looking for investment opportunities.

Nobody has to replace us at the top. The notion of a global hegemon is a relatively recent thing. The current international order is totally different than the one that we grew up with, for example. We grew up in bipolar world, and that world ceased to exist around 1990. Then we went through a period of US hegemony, which ended a decade or so ago (this was a much more gradual process, not anything dramatic like the fall of the Soviet Union). Maybe China or somebody will surpass everybody else, but that isn't going to happen tomorrow and it might never happen. Who knows.

Also, with regard to the dystopia part, you can't expect a revolution. There isn't going to be a PSA announcing "We are now in a dystopia -- kindly proceed accordingly." Sometimes countries just degrade. I could point to examples like the UK and Canada, but why look overseas when you already have a front-row view to how this sort of thing plays out?

If you would like a non-political example of what societal degradation looks like, ask yourself how it is that the US was able to put a guy on the moon before I was even born, and now we just leave astronauts stranded in space because we can't figure out how to get them back to earth. That's just one little data point. Look around and see if you can notice any others.

Big fan, but I think your last point badly misses the mark.

The outcome of the first moon landing was never guaranteed. The text of Nixon's speech in the case of failure makes the rounds every few years as a reminder of the risk and danger inherent in the mission. Less than three years prior to the first landing, the first great American Space tragedy occurred when Apollo 1 burst into flames while it was still on the ground. The X-15 disaster occurred later that year. To hit JFK's promise some safety was sacrificed for knowledge. Certainly you're not advocating that we're too safe now with our astronaut's lives?

Fast forward 19 years and we lose Challenger. Perhaps the defining moment in a late Gen-Xers life until 9/11/01. Wheeled into the classroom so that millions of school kids could see a cherished teacher (and six others) die. How come? Because of a failure that had been known about for almost 10 years and because Management decided to overrule the Engineers on a decision to delay the launch. Back in '86, as America ascended to the hegemony, I and my cohorts were introduced to tragedy because of greed. https://www.washingtonpost.com/arch...erruled/3627b12c-e28f-4461-b20e-ca4e21be144c/

Skip forward another 17 years and we then lose Columbia. Again, a problem is noted. The discarded foam from launch may have caused a problem. This time, NASA decides not to investigate because there's no corrective action to take if there is a problem. 34 years after Nixon had a speech prepared in case of disaster, we're still at the point where there's no hope for someone that has a problem in space. The 7 Columbia astronauts were not informed and were left, again as Armstrong, Aldrin and Collins were, to luck and fate.

We are currently in the longest stretch of space flight without the loss of American life since Shepard in '61. We have evolved past trusting to luck, fate or God. We no longer have to accept "men are laying down their lives in mankind's most noble goal." There has been some push back in the name of safety and information to prevent corporate management from proceeding with a space flight that can be done with less risk. There is greater information shared with the brave men and women that are expanding our knowledge of our planet, our universe and our selves.

We have evolved beyond the first 50 years of space flight and it is a national tragedy it is not celebrated more.

Yes I know that. But that isn't that point.

For our entire adult lives, Boeing and NASA have pretty much been the gold standard of competence. We all understand that taking humans off the ground is dangerous and there are going to be accidents. But both of the institutions were unquestioned world leaders in their respective fields.

Then you wake up one day and Boeing airplanes are falling out of the sky. And it's not because of a freak accident. They just forgot how to build airplanes.

And then you turn on the television, and Boeing has astronauts stranded in space. Wow, that's weird. Good thing we have NASA. They'll figure this out.

And NASA couldn't figure it out either.

Yes, we eventually got them back in one piece. But what the hell?

This is just one example of institutions, organizations, firms, etc. suddenly being unable to perform their core mission. Once you see this, you see it everywhere. People refer to it as the "competency crisis," and it spans important things like the FDA and CDC screwing up covid tests to trivial stuff like Sony blowing $400M on Concord. There are approximately a bazillion examples that one could draw from the political realm these days, but we won't go there.

The important thing is that, based on my observation, our ability to "do stuff" has been severely degraded. It's not entirely destroyed, and some industries have been affected by this less than others. For example, the tech sector still produces ground-breaking stuff. Although, then again, remember when "Google it" meant plugging your question into a functional search engine and getting a useful result? Yeah, me too.

I'm not sure why this doesn't bother more people. It might be that my model of the world is just broken, but then I look out my window and nope, those institutional failures are still there. Maybe people are just oblivious about it. Maybe they see the same stuff I see, and they're in denial about what they're seeing. I don't get it.

 

[The Z Machine]

I'm not sure why this doesn't bother more people. It might be that my model of the world is just broken, but then I look out my window and nope, those institutional failures are still there. Maybe people are just oblivious about it. Maybe they see the same stuff I see, and they're in denial about what they're seeing. I don't get it.

Maybe most people don't care. They got their $6 coffee drinks and social media feeds, so they are distracted. Space flight and astronauts don't care. It's more gratifying to watch 30 second video clips of the new dance craze or cars crashing or whatever.

Getting back to the economy, I truly think that the rise of "Fintech" and infinite apps and financial derivatives and SaaS and algorithmic trading has sapped the brain power (labor) that would have otherwise been contributing to NASA or Boeing or Ford or even the nuclear power industry. The first areas are much more lucrative to both the companies doing them and to the employees than the second. Finally, there's been a big shift away from physical objects to the virtual. The % of civil and mechanical engineers are dropping vs. Electrical and computer and software engineers and have been for 4 decades. That takes its toll on the brain power of industries that require civil and mechanical engineers.

I have seen it with my peers. Even people trained as mechanical engineers go and make apps and SaaS etc.

 

[Nugget]

I'm not sure why this doesn't bother more people. It might be that my model of the world is just broken, but then I look out my window and nope, those institutional failures are still there. Maybe people are just oblivious about it. Maybe they see the same stuff I see, and they're in denial about what they're seeing. I don't get it.

I think we just have better access to much more information, and we see things through different lenses. Google "average plane crashes per year" and I see that between the early 1980s and the late 2010's plane crashes have dropped from 3500 to 1500ish per year, with a steady declining slope. Products are getting more complex - biggest recalls this year have been over rearview camera wiring that wasn't much of an issue 20 years ago. Kids don't seem as responsible as they did in the past, but the milestones for adulthood have also been pushed out (marriage/kids/first home purchase) as costs have skyrocketed. I'm watching video on my phone of a Tesla robot pouring a beer in a cowboy hat. I can also work from home and take my son to school everyday. I think things are getting better, but there is still a lot of work ahead.

 

[Ridgeback]

It's not too hard to find examples or immorality amongst the religious. Let's be real.

The statement wasn't "find some examples of immorality amongst the religious." It was "religion = immorality." Learn to read.

Thanks for pointing out the obvious. I'll get right on that, champ.

 

[SoBeDad]

There not too many ways to fix the deficit without cutting spending. If you don't cut spending, you'd have to tax everything into oblivion, but history has shown that raising taxes is bad for economic growth.

Recent history has also shown that tax cuts alone don't pay for themselves. Do we need a combination of spending cuts and tax increases? Nobody wants to cut military spending - is it true that military spending was intentionally spread across districts to enhance support?

On a local level, people vote for tax increases all the time. It's easier to track efficiency and ROI when funding specific projects and when the budget is required to be balanced.

We still have the most desired cities for startups and entrepreneurs in the world, so I remain optimistic about the future. It's natural that as poverty has been reduced and education increased in many countries, they would "catch up" to the USA.

 

[Snotbubbles]

There not too many ways to fix the deficit without cutting spending. If you don't cut spending, you'd have to tax everything into oblivion, but history has shown that raising taxes is bad for economic growth.

Recent history has also shown that tax cuts alone don't pay for themselves. Do we need a combination of spending cuts and tax increases? Nobody wants to cut military spending - is it true that military spending was intentionally spread across districts to enhance support?

On a local level, people vote for tax increases all the time. It's easier to track efficiency and ROI when funding specific projects and when the budget is required to be balanced.

We still have the most desired cities for startups and entrepreneurs in the world, so I remain optimistic about the future. It's natural that as poverty has been reduced and education increased in many countries, they would "catch up" to the USA.

I'm fine with a tax increase as long as it's done with budget cuts. I want to shrink the government.

 

[massraider]

Then you wake up one day and Boeing airplanes are falling out of the sky. And it's not because of a freak accident. They just forgot how to build airplanes.

Boeing cut corners, and it was a profit-driven, stock buyback, 'let's rush a plane just because Airbus got some headlines' reason. They did not suddenly develop an inability to find smart engineers. That's unfettered, regulation-is-for-wimps capitalism. The inspectors inspecting their planes were Boeing employees. Look it up.

I know Boeing is only one example of what you are speaking about, but my answer is only one example of my answer.

There's no brain drain. The smartest are still really smart. But businesses need to get funded, and if they go public, stock price becomes the first priority. That does not lend itself to healthy long term companies. VC firms and investors are looking for a huge return, looking for 10x or 20x their money.

Sales guy works for a publicly traded company. His division doesn't make their projection for a quarter. So some people get laid off--making it harder to make their number the NEXT quarter. Which industry am I talking about? All of them. Examples in every field. The company didn't forget how to make widgets. The tail is wagging the dog.

US is still leading the way in most industries, still has the best and brightest. And if AI is the real deal, the US will increase their lead. Other countries couldn't even find the money to fund AI, even if they DID have the smartest people.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

So for the 2-3 of you ever so subtly hinting that the US society and economy will devolve into a dystopian hellscape any day now, mostly thanks to these darn lazy kids, what countries will take the baton going forward? Because that’s what has happened throughout history. When we fall, someone steps into the vacuum, right? So who is up next?

China’s economy is a giant mess, even worse than they’ll ever let on, so that doesn’t seem likely. India? While we talk about pets and concerts, 60% of their population lives on $3.10 or less a day. A seceded People’s Republic of California? Borat leading the Republic of Kazakhstan to glory? Who is doing it so much better and will be in position to take advantage of our imminent implosion?

Asking for a friend looking for investment opportunities.

Nobody has to replace us at the top. The notion of a global hegemon is a relatively recent thing. The current international order is totally different than the one that we grew up with, for example. We grew up in bipolar world, and that world ceased to exist around 1990. Then we went through a period of US hegemony, which ended a decade or so ago (this was a much more gradual process, not anything dramatic like the fall of the Soviet Union). Maybe China or somebody will surpass everybody else, but that isn't going to happen tomorrow and it might never happen. Who knows.

Also, with regard to the dystopia part, you can't expect a revolution. There isn't going to be a PSA announcing "We are now in a dystopia -- kindly proceed accordingly." Sometimes countries just degrade. I could point to examples like the UK and Canada, but why look overseas when you already have a front-row view to how this sort of thing plays out?

If you would like a non-political example of what societal degradation looks like, ask yourself how it is that the US was able to put a guy on the moon before I was even born, and now we just leave astronauts stranded in space because we can't figure out how to get them back to earth. That's just one little data point. Look around and see if you can notice any others.

Big fan, but I think your last point badly misses the mark.

The outcome of the first moon landing was never guaranteed. The text of Nixon's speech in the case of failure makes the rounds every few years as a reminder of the risk and danger inherent in the mission. Less than three years prior to the first landing, the first great American Space tragedy occurred when Apollo 1 burst into flames while it was still on the ground. The X-15 disaster occurred later that year. To hit JFK's promise some safety was sacrificed for knowledge. Certainly you're not advocating that we're too safe now with our astronaut's lives?

Fast forward 19 years and we lose Challenger. Perhaps the defining moment in a late Gen-Xers life until 9/11/01. Wheeled into the classroom so that millions of school kids could see a cherished teacher (and six others) die. How come? Because of a failure that had been known about for almost 10 years and because Management decided to overrule the Engineers on a decision to delay the launch. Back in '86, as America ascended to the hegemony, I and my cohorts were introduced to tragedy because of greed. https://www.washingtonpost.com/arch...erruled/3627b12c-e28f-4461-b20e-ca4e21be144c/

Skip forward another 17 years and we then lose Columbia. Again, a problem is noted. The discarded foam from launch may have caused a problem. This time, NASA decides not to investigate because there's no corrective action to take if there is a problem. 34 years after Nixon had a speech prepared in case of disaster, we're still at the point where there's no hope for someone that has a problem in space. The 7 Columbia astronauts were not informed and were left, again as Armstrong, Aldrin and Collins were, to luck and fate.

We are currently in the longest stretch of space flight without the loss of American life since Shepard in '61. We have evolved past trusting to luck, fate or God. We no longer have to accept "men are laying down their lives in mankind's most noble goal." There has been some push back in the name of safety and information to prevent corporate management from proceeding with a space flight that can be done with less risk. There is greater information shared with the brave men and women that are expanding our knowledge of our planet, our universe and our selves.

We have evolved beyond the first 50 years of space flight and it is a national tragedy it is not celebrated more.

Yes I know that. But that isn't that point.

For our entire adult lives, Boeing and NASA have pretty much been the gold standard of competence. We all understand that taking humans off the ground is dangerous and there are going to be accidents. But both of the institutions were unquestioned world leaders in their respective fields.

Then you wake up one day and Boeing airplanes are falling out of the sky. And it's not because of a freak accident. They just forgot how to build airplanes.

And then you turn on the television, and Boeing has astronauts stranded in space. Wow, that's weird. Good thing we have NASA. They'll figure this out.

And NASA couldn't figure it out either.

Yes, we eventually got them back in one piece. But what the hell?

This is just one example of institutions, organizations, firms, etc. suddenly being unable to perform their core mission. Once you see this, you see it everywhere. People refer to it as the "competency crisis," and it spans important things like the FDA and CDC screwing up covid tests to trivial stuff like Sony blowing $400M on Concord. There are approximately a bazillion examples that one could draw from the political realm these days, but we won't go there.

The important thing is that, based on my observation, our ability to "do stuff" has been severely degraded. It's not entirely destroyed, and some industries have been affected by this less than others. For example, the tech sector still produces ground-breaking stuff. Although, then again, remember when "Google it" meant plugging your question into a functional search engine and getting a useful result? Yeah, me too.

I'm not sure why this doesn't bother more people. It might be that my model of the world is just broken, but then I look out my window and nope, those institutional failures are still there. Maybe people are just oblivious about it. Maybe they see the same stuff I see, and they're in denial about what they're seeing. I don't get it.

These seem like just random things of which there are far more in the opposite direction. There are like 10,000 things where we're miles and miles and miles ahead of where we were then, but a profits driven company gets some bad execs in that prioritize shareholder returns by cutting corners on quality and the whole world is crumbling down? Boeing's main competitor's planes aren't falling out of the sky.

I've not had any issues with google search, but if you have I know a lot of people now don't even bother searching anymore because that once groundbreaking thing is now often superfluous, as you can just ask chatgpt and it will not only search but parse the results and sum it up in a conversational format.

We just developed, manufactured, and distributed a worldwide vaccine in like 1/10th the time of our previous record, saving millions of lives in the process.

We just had a port strike because workers are worried that essentially robots are advancing too fast and can do their job better and faster than people.

Things are progressing better and faster than ever overall. Yes there are some holes in certain fields with certain limitations in feasibility or necessity. Space exploration has slowed down because it offers little in terms of short-term returns despite being extremely expensive, and we're no longer rallying to push it beyond those returns as a means to defeat global communism. Though we can land rockets now, which is pretty cool.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

I'm aware of the fact that they didn't literally forget how to make airplanes. It's a figure of speech.

 

[fatness]

And then you turn on the television, and Boeing has astronauts stranded in space. Wow, that's weird. Good thing we have NASA. They'll figure this out.
And NASA couldn't figure it out either.
Yes, we eventually got them back in one piece. But what the hell?

I don't believe those astronauts are back to earth yet. They're scheduled to return in February in a different vehicle than the Boeing one.

 

[Stoneworker]

Then you wake up one day and Boeing airplanes are falling out of the sky. And it's not because of a freak accident. They just forgot how to build airplanes.

Boeing cut corners, and it was a profit-driven, stock buyback, 'let's rush a plane just because Airbus got some headlines' reason. They did not suddenly develop an inability to find smart engineers. That's unfettered, regulation-is-for-wimps capitalism. The inspectors inspecting their planes were Boeing employees. Look it up.

I know Boeing is only one example of what you are speaking about, but my answer is only one example of my answer.

There's no brain drain. The smartest are still really smart. But businesses need to get funded, and if they go public, stock price becomes the first priority. That does not lend itself to healthy long term companies. VC firms and investors are looking for a huge return, looking for 10x or 20x their money.

Sales guy works for a publicly traded company. His division doesn't make their projection for a quarter. So some people get laid off--making it harder to make their number the NEXT quarter. Which industry am I talking about? All of them. Examples in every field. The company didn't forget how to make widgets. The tail is wagging the dog.

US is still leading the way in most industries, still has the best and brightest. And if AI is the real deal, the US will increase their lead. Other countries couldn't even find the money to fund AI, even if they DID have the smartest people.

So you've actually been involved in internal board meetings of public companies?

Boeing has been existence since 1916 and a public company since 1962. Up until the recent problems it was the very definition of a "healthy long-term company," in spite of the gross oversimplification that "stock price has been its first priority" for over 60 years.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

And then you turn on the television, and Boeing has astronauts stranded in space. Wow, that's weird. Good thing we have NASA. They'll figure this out.
And NASA couldn't figure it out either.
Yes, we eventually got them back in one piece. But what the hell?

I don't believe those astronauts are back to earth yet. They're scheduled to return in February in a different vehicle than the Boeing one.

Sorry, you're right.

 

[Sparky Polastri]

So for the 2-3 of you ever so subtly hinting that the US society and economy will devolve into a dystopian hellscape any day now, mostly thanks to these darn lazy kids, what countries will take the baton going forward? Because that’s what has happened throughout history. When we fall, someone steps into the vacuum, right? So who is up next?

China’s economy is a giant mess, even worse than they’ll ever let on, so that doesn’t seem likely. India? While we talk about pets and concerts, 60% of their population lives on $3.10 or less a day. A seceded People’s Republic of California? Borat leading the Republic of Kazakhstan to glory? Who is doing it so much better and will be in position to take advantage of our imminent implosion?

Asking for a friend looking for investment opportunities.

Nobody has to replace us at the top. The notion of a global hegemon is a relatively recent thing. The current international order is totally different than the one that we grew up with, for example. We grew up in bipolar world, and that world ceased to exist around 1990. Then we went through a period of US hegemony, which ended a decade or so ago (this was a much more gradual process, not anything dramatic like the fall of the Soviet Union). Maybe China or somebody will surpass everybody else, but that isn't going to happen tomorrow and it might never happen. Who knows.

Also, with regard to the dystopia part, you can't expect a revolution. There isn't going to be a PSA announcing "We are now in a dystopia -- kindly proceed accordingly." Sometimes countries just degrade. I could point to examples like the UK and Canada, but why look overseas when you already have a front-row view to how this sort of thing plays out?

If you would like a non-political example of what societal degradation looks like, ask yourself how it is that the US was able to put a guy on the moon before I was even born, and now we just leave astronauts stranded in space because we can't figure out how to get them back to earth. That's just one little data point. Look around and see if you can notice any others.

Big fan, but I think your last point badly misses the mark.

The outcome of the first moon landing was never guaranteed. The text of Nixon's speech in the case of failure makes the rounds every few years as a reminder of the risk and danger inherent in the mission. Less than three years prior to the first landing, the first great American Space tragedy occurred when Apollo 1 burst into flames while it was still on the ground. The X-15 disaster occurred later that year. To hit JFK's promise some safety was sacrificed for knowledge. Certainly you're not advocating that we're too safe now with our astronaut's lives?

Fast forward 19 years and we lose Challenger. Perhaps the defining moment in a late Gen-Xers life until 9/11/01. Wheeled into the classroom so that millions of school kids could see a cherished teacher (and six others) die. How come? Because of a failure that had been known about for almost 10 years and because Management decided to overrule the Engineers on a decision to delay the launch. Back in '86, as America ascended to the hegemony, I and my cohorts were introduced to tragedy because of greed. https://www.washingtonpost.com/arch...erruled/3627b12c-e28f-4461-b20e-ca4e21be144c/

Skip forward another 17 years and we then lose Columbia. Again, a problem is noted. The discarded foam from launch may have caused a problem. This time, NASA decides not to investigate because there's no corrective action to take if there is a problem. 34 years after Nixon had a speech prepared in case of disaster, we're still at the point where there's no hope for someone that has a problem in space. The 7 Columbia astronauts were not informed and were left, again as Armstrong, Aldrin and Collins were, to luck and fate.

We are currently in the longest stretch of space flight without the loss of American life since Shepard in '61. We have evolved past trusting to luck, fate or God. We no longer have to accept "men are laying down their lives in mankind's most noble goal." There has been some push back in the name of safety and information to prevent corporate management from proceeding with a space flight that can be done with less risk. There is greater information shared with the brave men and women that are expanding our knowledge of our planet, our universe and our selves.

We have evolved beyond the first 50 years of space flight and it is a national tragedy it is not celebrated more.

Boeing can't keep doors on planes. Are we really expecting them to excel at space flight? No idea why that'd be the evidence used.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

Boeing can't keep doors on planes. Are we really expecting them to excel at space flight? No idea why that'd be the evidence used.

Has Boeing historically had a problem with keeping doors on its planes?

Hint: Your answer to that question will provide some idea why that is the evidence used.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Then you wake up one day and Boeing airplanes are falling out of the sky. And it's not because of a freak accident. They just forgot how to build airplanes.

Boeing cut corners, and it was a profit-driven, stock buyback, 'let's rush a plane just because Airbus got some headlines' reason. They did not suddenly develop an inability to find smart engineers. That's unfettered, regulation-is-for-wimps capitalism. The inspectors inspecting their planes were Boeing employees. Look it up.

I know Boeing is only one example of what you are speaking about, but my answer is only one example of my answer.

There's no brain drain. The smartest are still really smart. But businesses need to get funded, and if they go public, stock price becomes the first priority. That does not lend itself to healthy long term companies. VC firms and investors are looking for a huge return, looking for 10x or 20x their money.

Sales guy works for a publicly traded company. His division doesn't make their projection for a quarter. So some people get laid off--making it harder to make their number the NEXT quarter. Which industry am I talking about? All of them. Examples in every field. The company didn't forget how to make widgets. The tail is wagging the dog.

US is still leading the way in most industries, still has the best and brightest. And if AI is the real deal, the US will increase their lead. Other countries couldn't even find the money to fund AI, even if they DID have the smartest people.

So you've actually been involved in internal board meetings of public companies?

Boeing has been existence since 1916 and a public company since 1962. Up until the recent problems it was the very definition of a "healthy long-term company," in spite of the gross oversimplification that "stock price has been its first priority" for over 60 years.

Boeing was a quality driven company prior to their merger with McDonnell Douglas, a much more profits driven company. Somehow, the McDonnell execs ended up with an outsized amount of pull in the merger and took Boeing down the McDonnell path of profit maximization, with the largest change being subcontracting out parts to external companies (usually the lowest bidder) instead of building them all in-house.

One company deciding to take a poor direction is in no way indicative of a broader failure in progress, especially when there are 1000x the number of examples of incredible and unimaginable progress compared to areas where progress has been disappointing.

I mean, a couple of years ago we killed a terrorist in the middle of a city with no civilian casualties by launching a knife missile from an unpiloted flying aircraft hundreds of miles away with such precision that it killed him while driving his car without harming the guy in the passenger seat, much less any of the dozens of people around. Oh, and just to make it a little harder, it was night time and the car was moving.

 

[Stoneworker]

Then you wake up one day and Boeing airplanes are falling out of the sky. And it's not because of a freak accident. They just forgot how to build airplanes.

Boeing cut corners, and it was a profit-driven, stock buyback, 'let's rush a plane just because Airbus got some headlines' reason. They did not suddenly develop an inability to find smart engineers. That's unfettered, regulation-is-for-wimps capitalism. The inspectors inspecting their planes were Boeing employees. Look it up.

I know Boeing is only one example of what you are speaking about, but my answer is only one example of my answer.

There's no brain drain. The smartest are still really smart. But businesses need to get funded, and if they go public, stock price becomes the first priority. That does not lend itself to healthy long term companies. VC firms and investors are looking for a huge return, looking for 10x or 20x their money.

Sales guy works for a publicly traded company. His division doesn't make their projection for a quarter. So some people get laid off--making it harder to make their number the NEXT quarter. Which industry am I talking about? All of them. Examples in every field. The company didn't forget how to make widgets. The tail is wagging the dog.

US is still leading the way in most industries, still has the best and brightest. And if AI is the real deal, the US will increase their lead. Other countries couldn't even find the money to fund AI, even if they DID have the smartest people.

So you've actually been involved in internal board meetings of public companies?

Boeing has been existence since 1916 and a public company since 1962. Up until the recent problems it was the very definition of a "healthy long-term company," in spite of the gross oversimplification that "stock price has been its first priority" for over 60 years.

Boeing was a quality driven company prior to their merger with McDonnell Douglas, a much more profits driven company. Somehow, the McDonnell execs ended up with an outsized amount of pull in the merger and took Boeing down the McDonnell path of profit maximization, with the largest change being subcontracting out parts to external companies (usually the lowest bidder) instead of building them all in-house.

One company deciding to take a poor direction is in no way indicative of a broader failure in progress, especially when there are 1000x the number of examples of incredible and unimaginable progress compared to areas where progress has been disappointing.

I mean, a couple of years ago we killed a terrorist in the middle of a city with no civilian casualties by launching a knife missile from an unpiloted flying aircraft hundreds of miles away with such precision that it killed him while driving his car without harming the guy in the passenger seat, much less any of the dozens of people around. Oh, and just to make it a little harder, it was night time and the car was moving.

Totally agree (in particular with the bolded).

My previous comment was more in response to the apparent equating of being public with being primarily financially-driven. There are tremendous benefits to going public, the biggest being access to cheaper capital to expand a promising business. The quarterly financial reporting requirements allow for transparency and instantly bring greater discipline to the operations

Of course there is always the "corporate greed" risk and pressures to meet quarterly estimates. But in my experience that is more a function of the character of the executives and not the structure of the company. Private and family-run companies can actually be worse in a lot of ways if run by the wrong people.

 

[massraider]

So you've actually been involved in internal board meetings of public companies?

You know how many people read my post and thought, "THIS DUDE IS PRETENDING HE'S BEEN PRIVY TO INTERNAL BOARD MEETINGS!!!??!!!"?

One.

Just.......you.

The Boeing information is out there, and frankly, if you are going to ride into battle to defend the fair maiden of the publicly traded company, maybe pick a better looking maiden. There's videos on YouTube of employees on hidden cameras discussing the shoddy work after cost cutting, there's whistleblower reports, there's the fake plane they rolled out for a press conference, and that's off the top of my head.

I would rather not argue things I did NOT say, so if anyone figures out a way to ignore quotes that beegin with any variation of the phrase, "so what you're saying is..." then PLEASE holla at your boy.

If y'all don't wanna discuss the economy and business, and prefer to whine about the younger generation, then change the thread title, I promise I won't bother you.

 

[Sparky Polastri]

Boeing can't keep doors on planes. Are we really expecting them to excel at space flight? No idea why that'd be the evidence used.

Has Boeing historically had a problem with keeping doors on its planes?

Hint: Your answer to that question will provide some idea why that is the evidence used.

Not prior to merger, no. Is this another example of societal degredation in your view?

If so, we'll likely never see eye to eye as I find using a single variable/factor to define the state of society as a whole patantly absurd.

 

[Terminalxylem]

I’m not aware of communism gaining much traction in the US. Outside of a few college campuses (where alternative philosophies have always been embraced, at least in our lifetimes), where is communism apparent? Chinese influence, sure, but hardly a move to global communism imo.

Yeah, we can't talk about that.

You got me...it's politics.

Seriously though, I'll take a DM if someone cares to educate me. Don't follow the news at all, but I feel like I'd have heard something it were as pervasive as Ivan is suggesting.

I'm not saying that China is going to turn the US into a communist nation. I'm saying that China is aiding and abetting political destabilization in the US. That's plainly true.

Why would China care whether we were communist or not? They just want us to take another couple of steps back.

OK, that’s a far cry from what @Jayrod posted.

I agree with you regarding political destabilization, but anybody with access to the internet can do the same, albeit on a smaller scale. And our homespun media is doing a pretty good job, too, independent (at least some of it) of any foreign influence.

None of that changes much if China is number 1 economically, while the US drops a bit.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

Boeing can't keep doors on planes. Are we really expecting them to excel at space flight? No idea why that'd be the evidence used.

Has Boeing historically had a problem with keeping doors on its planes?

Hint: Your answer to that question will provide some idea why that is the evidence used.

Not prior to merger, no. Is this another example of societal degredation in your view?

If so, we'll likely never see eye to eye as I find using a single variable/factor to define the state of society as a whole patantly absurd.

Me too.

 

[Sparky Polastri]

Boeing can't keep doors on planes. Are we really expecting them to excel at space flight? No idea why that'd be the evidence used.

Has Boeing historically had a problem with keeping doors on its planes?

Hint: Your answer to that question will provide some idea why that is the evidence used.

Not prior to merger, no. Is this another example of societal degredation in your view?

If so, we'll likely never see eye to eye as I find using a single variable/factor to define the state of society as a whole patantly absurd.

Me too.

Then don't. As it stands right now based on the words you've typed, there has never been a time where society hasn't been in decline.

Im only 28 years old and even I can see for every Boeing failure in space there are 10 successes by other companies/countries. Our presence in space has never been as prolific as it is right now.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

Boeing can't keep doors on planes. Are we really expecting them to excel at space flight? No idea why that'd be the evidence used.

Has Boeing historically had a problem with keeping doors on its planes?

Hint: Your answer to that question will provide some idea why that is the evidence used.

Not prior to merger, no. Is this another example of societal degredation in your view?

If so, we'll likely never see eye to eye as I find using a single variable/factor to define the state of society as a whole patantly absurd.

Me too.

Then don't. As it stands right now based on the words you've typed, there has never been a time where society hasn't been in decline.

Im only 28 years old and even I can see for every Boeing failure in space there are 10 successes by other companies/countries. Our presence in space has never been as prolific as it is right now.

Yes, I know. That's why I'm cutting you some slack. You've never known anything besides this.

Also, my point is not about space exploration. Slow down, young man.

Edit: Obviously I don't believe that society has always been in decline. You know that. So maybe that's a sign that you're misreading what I'm saying?

 

[culdeus]

Step 1 was get as much low cost labor in your supply chain as possible. That was easy until we started running out of those people.
Step 2 was cut design verification and checks. Fix it in proto. This is ok assuming your prior designs work and can be copied and tweaked (this was the thinking on the max)
Step 3 was just cutting design and verification checks so you didn't have anything to fix, if you don't find it, it isn't broken.
Step 4 is enabling your customers to evade regulations by finding loopholes that weaken your product (Max tubes)
Step 5 is just hoping for the best.

Enshittification is what it's called in software circles. Dead people is what it is in hardware.

 

[Sparky Polastri]

Boeing can't keep doors on planes. Are we really expecting them to excel at space flight? No idea why that'd be the evidence used.

Has Boeing historically had a problem with keeping doors on its planes?

Hint: Your answer to that question will provide some idea why that is the evidence used.

Not prior to merger, no. Is this another example of societal degredation in your view?

If so, we'll likely never see eye to eye as I find using a single variable/factor to define the state of society as a whole patantly absurd.

Me too.

Then don't. As it stands right now based on the words you've typed, there has never been a time where society hasn't been in decline.

Im only 28 years old and even I can see for every Boeing failure in space there are 10 successes by other companies/countries. Our presence in space has never been as prolific as it is right now.

Yes, I know. That's why I'm cutting you some slack. You've never known anything besides this.

Also, my point is not about space exploration. Slow down, young man.

Edit: Obviously I don't believe that society has always been in decline. You know that. So maybe that's a sign that you're misreading what I'm saying?

You said a company messing something up (that they havent done before by the way) is evidence of societal degradation. Thats your comment/construct you typed out. If you mean something other than that, its on you to expand. Im not a mind reader.

And spare me your patronizing BS. The premise typed out is absurd, especially when so many others in the industry have made major strides.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

Boeing can't keep doors on planes. Are we really expecting them to excel at space flight? No idea why that'd be the evidence used.

Has Boeing historically had a problem with keeping doors on its planes?

Hint: Your answer to that question will provide some idea why that is the evidence used.

Not prior to merger, no. Is this another example of societal degredation in your view?

If so, we'll likely never see eye to eye as I find using a single variable/factor to define the state of society as a whole patantly absurd.

Me too.

Then don't. As it stands right now based on the words you've typed, there has never been a time where society hasn't been in decline.

Im only 28 years old and even I can see for every Boeing failure in space there are 10 successes by other companies/countries. Our presence in space has never been as prolific as it is right now.

Yes, I know. That's why I'm cutting you some slack. You've never known anything besides this.

Also, my point is not about space exploration. Slow down, young man.

Edit: Obviously I don't believe that society has always been in decline. You know that. So maybe that's a sign that you're misreading what I'm saying?

You said a company messing something up (that they havent done before by the way) is evidence of societal degradation. Thats your comment/construct you typed out. If you mean something other than that, its on you to expand. Im not a mind reader.

And spare me your patronizing BS. The premise typed out is absurd, especially when so many others in the industry have made major strides.

I think you need to re-read what I wrote. I talked about Boeing being a gold-star company. And then their planes started failing.

Go back and read the post that you're talking about. Look for yourself. The first thing I mentioned about Boeing was their inability to build functional aircraft.

You know that Boeing is failing at building aircraft. You mentioned a few posts up that their doors were falling off.

What exactly are you angry about here?

 

[Stoneworker]

So you've actually been involved in internal board meetings of public companies?

You know how many people read my post and thought, "THIS DUDE IS PRETENDING HE'S BEEN PRIVY TO INTERNAL BOARD MEETINGS!!!??!!!"?

One.

Just.......you.

The Boeing information is out there, and frankly, if you are going to ride into battle to defend the fair maiden of the publicly traded company, maybe pick a better looking maiden. There's videos on YouTube of employees on hidden cameras discussing the shoddy work after cost cutting, there's whistleblower reports, there's the fake plane they rolled out for a press conference, and that's off the top of my head.

I would rather not argue things I did NOT say, so if anyone figures out a way to ignore quotes that beegin with any variation of the phrase, "so what you're saying is..." then PLEASE holla at your boy.

If y'all don't wanna discuss the economy and business, and prefer to whine about the younger generation, then change the thread title, I promise I won't bother you.

Your trope-filled claims of knowing decision-making priorities of public companies would have at least some credibility if they were informed by first-hand experience as opposed to YouTube videos (lmao).

 

[Joe Bryant]

These kinds of threads and the snarky passive aggressive behavior they dredge up are good every so often to remind me why closing the political forum was so smart.

 

[Sand]

Boeing can't keep doors on planes. Are we really expecting them to excel at space flight? No idea why that'd be the evidence used.

Not to defend Boeing (the issues were serious), but if the astronauts came back they would have been fine. NASA is hyper conservative (for good reason, but still they are.) They should be able to fix this issue - in their case it's the cost they're carrying to access space that's the biggest problem.

Im only 28 years old and even I can see for every Boeing failure in space there are 10 successes by other companies/countries. Our presence in space has never been as prolific as it is right now.

Actually the US is killing it in getting into space. SpaceX, Blue Origin, Rocket Lab, etc. IMO we're way ahead of the rest of the world here.

 

[Sand]

These kinds of threads and the snarky passive aggressive behavior they dredge up are good every so often to remind me why closing the political forum was so smart.

Then smack around the offenders. The premise of the thread is good and is valuable.

 

[dkp993]

Private and family-run companies can actually be worse in a lot of ways if run by the wrong people

Or better, far better, if run by the right people.

 

[Sparky Polastri]

Boeing can't keep doors on planes. Are we really expecting them to excel at space flight? No idea why that'd be the evidence used.

Not to defend Boeing (the issues were serious), but if the astronauts came back they would have been fine. NASA is hyper conservative (for good reason, but still they are.) They should be able to fix this issue - in their case it's the cost they're carrying to access space that's the biggest problem.

Im only 28 years old and even I can see for every Boeing failure in space there are 10 successes by other companies/countries. Our presence in space has never been as prolific as it is right now.

Actually the US is killing it in getting into space. SpaceX, Blue Origin, Rocket Lab, etc. IMO we're way ahead of the rest of the world here.

Tell Ivan that....he's the one saying the capsule incident is evidence of societal degradation.

 

[Sparky Polastri]

If you would like a non-political example of what societal degradation looks like, ask yourself how it is that the US was able to put a guy on the moon before I was even born, and now we just leave astronauts stranded in space because we can't figure out how to get them back to earth. That's just one little data point. Look around and see if you can notice any others.

The comment I was referring to And no, there was nothing in the comments above this part of the post talking about doors coming off planes. Boeing today is CLEARLY not even the same company it was after their merger. The "gold standard" Boeing was long gone after their merger.

If one wants to talk about meaningful evidence of our degrading society, look no further than the origins of social media. THAT is an example of societal degradation. The Boeing incident is simply evidence of a good company becoming a bad company after a merger.

 

[Sand]

Tell Ivan that....he's the one saying the capsule incident is evidence of societal degradation.

Eh, that's not productive. But it obviously was a technical error systematic to those thrusters. I would love to know what failed on those. Vacuum seems so simple, but it turns out it's so damn hard.

 

[Sand]

The Boeing incident is simply evidence of a good company becoming a bad company after a merger.

I'm quite lucky my company went the opposite direction. New executive guys eons better than the old. If we extrapolate to society it was in the dark ages and with the changeover hit the Renaissance.

 

[Sparky Polastri]

Tell Ivan that....he's the one saying the capsule incident is evidence of societal degradation.

Eh, that's not productive. But it obviously was a technical error systematic to those thrusters. I would love to know what failed on those. Vacuum seems so simple, but it turns out it's so damn hard.

As you said above, it turns out they would have been ok coming back. They were being overly cautious.

 

[Joe Bryant]

These kinds of threads and the snarky passive aggressive behavior they dredge up are good every so often to remind me why closing the political forum was so smart.

Then smack around the offenders. The premise of the thread is good and is valuable.

I hear you. But not a fan of "smacking around" posters. Suspensions are sometimes the only option but in general, suspending people is a bad outcome.

 

[massraider]

Private and family-run companies can actually be worse in a lot of ways if run by the wrong people

Or better, far better, if run by the right people.

100%.
I agree with both of you. There are examples, like Boeing, where you can draw a direct line from the merger and cost cutting to planes falling out of the sky.

Meantime, 7-11 just announced they are closing 450 stores in North America.

This is a company with a bunch of shady franchisees, who have done a bunch of damage to the brand. I am sure in fast food you have seen a ton of examples of private owners running places well, and running places poorly.

My issue, and really most Americans' issue (whether they know it or not) with publicly traded companies is not with the act of raising money through stocks, or even accountability to shareholders. Every company that is publicly traded is not evil or poorly run---and I never said that they were.
It is that the system is easily exploitable for short term gains which jeopardize the long term health of a company. Stock buybacks were illegal until 1982.

In the ten years before the pandemic, Boeing spent 68 billion in buybacks. The pandemic hit, and after a couple months, they were cutting thousands in the workforce. A person had more job security as a beer truck driver than a Boeing middle manager in 2020. It begs the question, after decades of billions in profits, how was there not a massive reserve, a little something for a rainy day?
Early days of the pandemic, it was alarming how many massive companies were 4 weeks away from not paying their bills. And I am sure a most/all of them are still behaving this way.

 

[Stoneworker]

Private and family-run companies can actually be worse in a lot of ways if run by the wrong people

Or better, far better, if run by the right people.

100%.
I agree with both of you. There are examples, like Boeing, where you can draw a direct line from the merger and cost cutting to planes falling out of the sky.

Meantime, 7-11 just announced they are closing 450 stores in North America.

This is a company with a bunch of shady franchisees, who have done a bunch of damage to the brand. I am sure in fast food you have seen a ton of examples of private owners running places well, and running places poorly.

My issue, and really most Americans' issue (whether they know it or not) with publicly traded companies is not with the act of raising money through stocks, or even accountability to shareholders. Every company that is publicly traded is not evil or poorly run---and I never said that they were.
It is that the system is easily exploitable for short term gains which jeopardize the long term health of a company. Stock buybacks were illegal until 1982.

In the ten years before the pandemic, Boeing spent 68 billion in buybacks. The pandemic hit, and after a couple months, they were cutting thousands in the workforce. A person had more job security as a beer truck driver than a Boeing middle manager in 2020. It begs the question, after decades of billions in profits, how was there not a massive reserve, a little something for a rainy day?
Early days of the pandemic, it was alarming how many massive companies were 4 weeks away from not paying their bills. And I am sure a most/all of them are still behaving this way.

This is a well-thought out post and I generally agree.

It seemed quite clear to me yesterday that Boeing was being used as a poster-child to bash the very existence of public companies, many of which in my experience are run by good people with good intentions. But evidently I was wrong in my interpretation and I apologize if the tone became somewhat confrontational as a result.

You are correct that there are indeed many temptations, risks, pressures, and potentially skewed incentives inherent in running a public company that don't exist in private ones. But there are also many real and tangible benefits (e.g. cost of capital, scale economies, access to resources), and it is up to management to navigate a proper and sustainable long-term course on behalf of not only shareholders, but employees, customers and the public at large.

Corporate stock buybacks are a solid example of a double-edge sword in corporate finance. Done properly they can be a prudent use of cash in unique times when there is a combination of excess balance sheet cash, ultra-low interest rates, and a temporary dearth of investment opptys. However, as you adroitly pointed out, Boeing seemingly messed it up (among other things) and is now at risk of a potential death spiral which indeed might be jet-fuel accelerated by the pressures of being public.

Improper use of debt (e.g. simple over-leverage, funding long-term assets w/ short-term liabilities, etc.) is another example of a basic corporate finance tool that is generally quite benign when managed properly, but also subject to abuse by overly-aggressive or greedy CFO/CEO's who don't have long-term vision and/or discipline.

My main point is that, in my experience, it is not public vs. private per se but high-character, skillful and appropriately trained management that matters most.

 

[Todem]

So for the 2-3 of you ever so subtly hinting that the US society and economy will devolve into a dystopian hellscape any day now, mostly thanks to these darn lazy kids, what countries will take the baton going forward? Because that’s what has happened throughout history. When we fall, someone steps into the vacuum, right? So who is up next?

China’s economy is a giant mess, even worse than they’ll ever let on, so that doesn’t seem likely. India? While we talk about pets and concerts, 60% of their population lives on $3.10 or less a day. A seceded People’s Republic of California? Borat leading the Republic of Kazakhstan to glory? Who is doing it so much better and will be in position to take advantage of our imminent implosion?

Asking for a friend looking for investment opportunities.

Nobody has to replace us at the top. The notion of a global hegemon is a relatively recent thing. The current international order is totally different than the one that we grew up with, for example. We grew up in bipolar world, and that world ceased to exist around 1990. Then we went through a period of US hegemony, which ended a decade or so ago (this was a much more gradual process, not anything dramatic like the fall of the Soviet Union). Maybe China or somebody will surpass everybody else, but that isn't going to happen tomorrow and it might never happen. Who knows.

Also, with regard to the dystopia part, you can't expect a revolution. There isn't going to be a PSA announcing "We are now in a dystopia -- kindly proceed accordingly." Sometimes countries just degrade. I could point to examples like the UK and Canada, but why look overseas when you already have a front-row view to how this sort of thing plays out?

If you would like a non-political example of what societal degradation looks like, ask yourself how it is that the US was able to put a guy on the moon before I was even born, and now we just leave astronauts stranded in space because we can't figure out how to get them back to earth. That's just one little data point. Look around and see if you can notice any others.

Big fan, but I think your last point badly misses the mark.

The outcome of the first moon landing was never guaranteed. The text of Nixon's speech in the case of failure makes the rounds every few years as a reminder of the risk and danger inherent in the mission. Less than three years prior to the first landing, the first great American Space tragedy occurred when Apollo 1 burst into flames while it was still on the ground. The X-15 disaster occurred later that year. To hit JFK's promise some safety was sacrificed for knowledge. Certainly you're not advocating that we're too safe now with our astronaut's lives?

Fast forward 19 years and we lose Challenger. Perhaps the defining moment in a late Gen-Xers life until 9/11/01. Wheeled into the classroom so that millions of school kids could see a cherished teacher (and six others) die. How come? Because of a failure that had been known about for almost 10 years and because Management decided to overrule the Engineers on a decision to delay the launch. Back in '86, as America ascended to the hegemony, I and my cohorts were introduced to tragedy because of greed. https://www.washingtonpost.com/arch...erruled/3627b12c-e28f-4461-b20e-ca4e21be144c/

Skip forward another 17 years and we then lose Columbia. Again, a problem is noted. The discarded foam from launch may have caused a problem. This time, NASA decides not to investigate because there's no corrective action to take if there is a problem. 34 years after Nixon had a speech prepared in case of disaster, we're still at the point where there's no hope for someone that has a problem in space. The 7 Columbia astronauts were not informed and were left, again as Armstrong, Aldrin and Collins were, to luck and fate.

We are currently in the longest stretch of space flight without the loss of American life since Shepard in '61. We have evolved past trusting to luck, fate or God. We no longer have to accept "men are laying down their lives in mankind's most noble goal." There has been some push back in the name of safety and information to prevent corporate management from proceeding with a space flight that can be done with less risk. There is greater information shared with the brave men and women that are expanding our knowledge of our planet, our universe and our selves.

We have evolved beyond the first 50 years of space flight and it is a national tragedy it is not celebrated more.

Yes I know that. But that isn't that point.

For our entire adult lives, Boeing and NASA have pretty much been the gold standard of competence. We all understand that taking humans off the ground is dangerous and there are going to be accidents. But both of the institutions were unquestioned world leaders in their respective fields.

Then you wake up one day and Boeing airplanes are falling out of the sky. And it's not because of a freak accident. They just forgot how to build airplanes.

And then you turn on the television, and Boeing has astronauts stranded in space. Wow, that's weird. Good thing we have NASA. They'll figure this out.

And NASA couldn't figure it out either.

Yes, we eventually got them back in one piece. But what the hell?

This is just one example of institutions, organizations, firms, etc. suddenly being unable to perform their core mission. Once you see this, you see it everywhere. People refer to it as the "competency crisis," and it spans important things like the FDA and CDC screwing up covid tests to trivial stuff like Sony blowing $400M on Concord. There are approximately a bazillion examples that one could draw from the political realm these days, but we won't go there.

The important thing is that, based on my observation, our ability to "do stuff" has been severely degraded. It's not entirely destroyed, and some industries have been affected by this less than others. For example, the tech sector still produces ground-breaking stuff. Although, then again, remember when "Google it" meant plugging your question into a functional search engine and getting a useful result? Yeah, me too.

I'm not sure why this doesn't bother more people. It might be that my model of the world is just broken, but then I look out my window and nope, those institutional failures are still there. Maybe people are just oblivious about it. Maybe they see the same stuff I see, and they're in denial about what they're seeing. I don't get it.

It’s The Matrix. Everyone is droning thru life now….ignorance is bliss and who knows maybe we are really all just batteries for the machines.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

If you would like a non-political example of what societal degradation looks like, ask yourself how it is that the US was able to put a guy on the moon before I was even born, and now we just leave astronauts stranded in space because we can't figure out how to get them back to earth. That's just one little data point. Look around and see if you can notice any others.

The comment I was referring to And no, there was nothing in the comments above this part of the post talking about doors coming off planes. Boeing today is CLEARLY not even the same company it was after their merger. The "gold standard" Boeing was long gone after their merger.

If one wants to talk about meaningful evidence of our degrading society, look no further than the origins of social media. THAT is an example of societal degradation. The Boeing incident is simply evidence of a good company becoming a bad company after a merger.

Yes, Boeing is not the same company that it used to be. That's what I was saying.

Yes, social media is a problem. I totally agree. A wonderful example that I've used myself many times.

We seem to be more or less in agreement, but obviously you don't see it that way and I'm not sure why.

 

[jwb]

It’s The Matrix. Everyone is droning thru life now….ignorance is bliss and who knows maybe we are really all just batteries for the machines.

Yes, Boeing is not the same company that it used to be. That's what I was saying.

Yes, social media is a problem. I totally agree. A wonderful example that I've used myself many times.

You keep agreeing with me, but you seem very angry about it.

I definitely agree with you and Jayrod Ivan. I feel, like Todem just mentioned, that there's a certain apathy / mailing-it-in amongst all sectors, both commercial and social. It does tie into social media and other things we can't really talk about. But we're unhappy about things we should be happy about. I know many, many people living in $300+k houses, 2 nice cars, vacations, with swimming pools and trampolines in their yards... and yet they are mad about nearly everything. That can't be a good sign.

 

[The Z Machine]

I know many, many people living in $300+k houses, 2 nice cars, vacations, with swimming pools and trampolines in their yards... and yet they are mad about nearly everything. That can't be a good sign.

Maybe material wealth and possessions don't really make a person truly happy. #mindblown