value of Andre Johnson w/ Leinart (1 Viewer)

[Stryker]

Not sure if there were more threads on this, but what is the value of AJ with a guy like Matt Leinart at QB? Considering trading for him, but not sure what to give, if anything?

 

[Elf On The Shelf]

I guess a good comparison would be to look at what Leinart did with Fitz, and compare that to how Fitz did with other QBs. Unfortunately, I'm too lazy to look it up. My gut says that Andre, if healthy still does rather well and performs as a WR1 as long as Leinart is just competent. Remember that David Carr was good enough to make AJ a solid fantasy WR, right?

 

[shnikies]

Not sure if there were more threads on this, but what is the value of AJ with a guy like Matt Leinart at QB? Considering trading for him, but not sure what to give, if anything?

Fitzgerald had some monster games when Leinart was QB. Leinart is capable of throwing the ball in the vicinity of Andre Johnson and that's all he needs to do. AJ is a top 10 receiver going forward. I think conditioning and recovering from the injury is what keeps him out of top 3 territory more than Leinart. With that being said, he could easily be a top 3 option in the near future.

 

[Saint]

Decent I hope... For the record, Schaub had a bunch of missed games in 2007 and 2008, and here is how he fared.

2008 :

[*]Week 10: 7/66/0

[*]Week 11: 4/55/0

[*]Week 12: 10/116/0

[*]Week 13: 7/75/1

2007:

[*]Week 14: 9/82/1

[*]Week 15: 6/86/1

[*]Week 16: 7/74/1

[*]Week 17: 6/74

The backup throwing the ball to Johnson was Sage Rosenfels.

When Leinart started most of the games for Arizona (2006 with 12 games) and where Fitzgerald was healthy (7 week sample), Fitz averaged 5.5 receptions a week for approximately 76 yards and 0.5 TDs per game. IMO, I am not that concerned, I see AJ producing fine.

 

[PlasmaDogPlasma]

I can't imagine paying what it would cost to get Johnson from the owner that spent a 1st round pick on him. You have the very real possibility of the hammy flaring back up, the suckatude of Matt Leinart who hasn't thrown a touchdown in 3 years, plus the fact that the offense has learned to function quite well without him. It's definitely possible that he could be a top 5 guy the rest of the way, but the price is going to be way too steep for me to take the risk.

 

[P Park Pimps]

I can't imagine paying what it would cost to get Johnson from the owner that spent a 1st round pick on him. You have the very real possibility of the hammy flaring back up, the suckatude of Matt Leinart who hasn't thrown a touchdown in 3 years, plus the fact that the offense has learned to function quite well without him. It's definitely possible that he could be a top 5 guy the rest of the way, but the price is going to be way too steep for me to take the risk.

I just traded Bradford and Kevin Smith for him. Did I pay too much?

 

[Breesisdaman]

[

b]Not sure if there were more threads on this, but what is the value of AJ with a guy like Matt Leinart at QB? Considering trading for him, but not sure what to give, if anything?

Selling Andre Johnson

 

[Tau837]

I guess a good comparison would be to look at what Leinart did with Fitz, and compare that to how Fitz did with other QBs.

Here is an old post I made in January 2010 (so numbers were through the 2009 season):

I'm going to just focus on Fitz for now. This discussion will also apply to others in the offense in different ways, but that's for another post/discussion.There are really two issues to be considered here with regard to the impact on Fitz's performance going forward. First, how will his targets in 2010 and beyond compare to the targets he has received in recent years? Second, how will his production per target compare to what it was in recent years?I looked up some data for Fitz and Leinart. Given that it's hard to account for times when Leinart relieved another QB vs. when he was pulled for another QB, I just chose all games in which both played and Leinart had 20 or more passing attempts and compared them to all of Fitz's other games (regular season and postseason) from 2006 to 2009, since Leinart joined the team in 2006. Here's the data:Games in which Fitzgerald played and Leinart had 20+ pass attempts:12 games, 97 targets, 60 receptions, 742 receiving yards (12.4 ypr), 4 TDsPer 16 games, this scales to 129 targets, 80 receptions, 989 receiving yards, 5 TDsAll other games (regular season and postseason) played by Fitzgerald from 2006 to 2009:54 games, 533 targets, 345 receptions, 4847 receiving yards (14 ypr), 46 TDsPer 16 games, this scales to 158 targets, 102 receptions, 1436 receiving yards, 14 TDsObviously there is an enormous difference. This suggests that Leinart will indeed have a negative impact on Fitz's numbers. With Leinart, Fitz averaged fewer targets and his production per target was lower.

 

[Tau837]

Decent I hope... For the record, Schaub had a bunch of missed games in 2007 and 2008, and here is how he fared.

2008 :

[*]Week 10: 7/66/0

[*]Week 11: 4/55/0

[*]Week 12: 10/116/0

[*]Week 13: 7/75/1

2007:

[*]Week 14: 9/82/1

[*]Week 15: 6/86/1

[*]Week 16: 7/74/1

[*]Week 17: 6/74

The backup throwing the ball to Johnson was Sage Rosenfels.

When Leinart started most of the games for Arizona (2006 with 12 games) and where Fitzgerald was healthy (7 week sample), Fitz averaged 5.5 receptions a week for approximately 76 yards and 0.5 TDs per game. IMO, I am not that concerned, I see AJ producing fine.

Rosenfels > LeinartAlso, Leinart and Fitz were both healthy for 6 games in 2006, not 7 games, and they were both healthy (and Leinart starting and playing the entire game) for 3 more games after 2006... more recent games... Fitz had a total of 14/141/0 in those 3 games.

Past performance does not equate to future success, but in this case be aware that the Fitz with Leinart comparison does not bode well for Johnson.

 

[Shutout]

I think its a different time and place. I would be disappointed and I think the Texans would be too, if Leinart is the same guy now that he was then. I have to think in real life that the texans coaching staff has worked with him enough (and he with them) to be prepared to lead this team to its first playoff appearance.

the presence of the run game should help a ton, leaving Leinart to do something that he did extremely well in college: play-action pass. At that point, its all up to AJ to do something he does very well (run after the catch).

I don't expect AJ to come back and be the arguable #1 he usually is but I think it is very reasonable he is an absolute every-week play putting up top 8-10 numbers. With so much focus on the run game, I have every bit of faith in AJ that he can catch even a short pass and break off big runs.

I think what a lot of people aren't counting on is that this is THE BEST Texans team there has been. foster AND Tate are forces. Owen Daniels commands attention. Jacoby Jones is better than he has been. The line is phenomenol and the defense can play with anyone. that leaves AJ to be AJ. I think it will be fine.

 

[packersfan]

I can't imagine paying what it would cost to get Johnson from the owner that spent a 1st round pick on him. You have the very real possibility of the hammy flaring back up, the suckatude of Matt Leinart who hasn't thrown a touchdown in 3 years, plus the fact that the offense has learned to function quite well without him. It's definitely possible that he could be a top 5 guy the rest of the way, but the price is going to be way too steep for me to take the risk.

I just traded Bradford and Kevin Smith for him. Did I pay too much?

Ummm ... I think you did just fine.Wow.

 

[PlasmaDogPlasma]

I can't imagine paying what it would cost to get Johnson from the owner that spent a 1st round pick on him. You have the very real possibility of the hammy flaring back up, the suckatude of Matt Leinart who hasn't thrown a touchdown in 3 years, plus the fact that the offense has learned to function quite well without him. It's definitely possible that he could be a top 5 guy the rest of the way, but the price is going to be way too steep for me to take the risk.

I just traded Bradford and Kevin Smith for him. Did I pay too much?

I don't think many leagues are going to have an owner that held him the whole time he was hurt and then will turn around and trade him for something like that now that he's coming back.

 

[VikingFrog]

I can't imagine paying what it would cost to get Johnson from the owner that spent a 1st round pick on him. You have the very real possibility of the hammy flaring back up, the suckatude of Matt Leinart who hasn't thrown a touchdown in 3 years, plus the fact that the offense has learned to function quite well without him. It's definitely possible that he could be a top 5 guy the rest of the way, but the price is going to be way too steep for me to take the risk.

I just traded Bradford and Kevin Smith for him. Did I pay too much?

I don't think many leagues are going to have an owner that held him the whole time he was hurt and then will turn around and trade him for something like that now that he's coming back.

I traded for him with an owner who was in a must win situation last week. I gave Benson and V Jack for Andre and Sproles. He was lacking two starters and I could afford those two guys on byes last week.Hopefully it works out for me. I feel like I got the better value, but we'll see.Definitely kept him in the playoff race last week when he was stating at a loss with no bench players to fill in for his byes.

 

[Tau837]

I think its a different time and place. I would be disappointed and I think the Texans would be too, if Leinart is the same guy now that he was then. I have to think in real life that the texans coaching staff has worked with him enough (and he with them) to be prepared to lead this team to its first playoff appearance.

Of course they will be disappointed, just as Arizona was disappointed in Leinart's performance and progress over 4+ years. It is certainly possible he is better now, but there is no evidence of that at this point, and it was not that long ago that Arizona was disappointed enough to give up on him.

 

[packersfan]

It is certainly possible he is better now, but there is no evidence of that at this point

In fairness to Leinart he hasn't played in two seasons so other than the preseason - where he looked good - nobody has any idea how he's going to look in the Houston offense. I'm not expecting much from him to be honest; just saying there's no evidence he'll either fail or succeed as Houston's starter based on his work there. Based on how bad he was in Arizona, there's certainly ample reason to believe he'll fail but maybe he's improved and maybe Kubiak can coach him up.

 

[bweiser]

I can't imagine paying what it would cost to get Johnson from the owner that spent a 1st round pick on him. You have the very real possibility of the hammy flaring back up, the suckatude of Matt Leinart who hasn't thrown a touchdown in 3 years, plus the fact that the offense has learned to function quite well without him. It's definitely possible that he could be a top 5 guy the rest of the way, but the price is going to be way too steep for me to take the risk.

I just traded Bradford and Kevin Smith for him. Did I pay too much?

I don't think many leagues are going to have an owner that held him the whole time he was hurt and then will turn around and trade him for something like that now that he's coming back.

speaking as a johnson owner, you might if you don't think leinart is any good. you held him in anticipation of him coming back and hooking up with schaub. but it's not schaub now. it's leinart.

 

[Saint]

Rosenfels > LeinartAlso, Leinart and Fitz were both healthy for 6 games in 2006, not 7 games, and they were both healthy (and Leinart starting and playing the entire game) for 3 more games after 2006... more recent games... Fitz had a total of 14/141/0 in those 3 games.Past performance does not equate to future success, but in this case be aware that the Fitz with Leinart comparison does not bode well for Johnson.

Looking at NFL.com record stats... Fitz started Weeks 1-5 and 10-17 in 2006. Leinart started weeks 5-16. Assuming Fitz was injured Week 5, then he only had Fitz available weeks 10-16. That's 7 weeks. Not sure if there was an injury week in there, but NFL.com didn't show it. Not sure why I didn't count the next year... Agree that past performance (especially data 5 years old) may not be that good of an indicator, but I also think ARI's run game (Edgerrin James at the time) was not that dominating either. All in all, I think HOU is more balanced. I agree that Johnson's production may be down, I just don't think it'll be that significant.In the whole scheme of things, I believe Johnson + Leinart is still better than a lot of other options out there.

 

[fantasizing]

With Foster and Tate bulldozing over defenses and Texan's D playing so well, I just don't see how the Texans will be passing all that much going forward. They rarely are behind in games, unlike previous years.

Look for a massive rushing attack for the remainder of the season. This keeps Leinart in a comfort zone, helping him get adjusted to the offense.

Teams will blanket AJ, and Leinart will simply take the easy (safe) options of Daniels, Dressen, K. Walter, and J. Jones.

I actually think that O. Daniels will be the top receiving threat after A. Foster...

 

[Bri]

Leinart was all hollywood coming out of college and flopped. He wasn't Ryan Leaf bad, but he didn't do well. He's had some time to regroup and was a very good college QB. I doubt he's the same player he once was-for good and bad reasons. Let's see what we've got first.

IMO He's intriguing enough to grab off a WW and wait and see. Despite what anyone types here, I'm not believing you're headed for the playoffs with a recent WW pickup at QB. Maybe in a week or two he starts for you, but cmon

 

[dickey moe]

I can't imagine paying what it would cost to get Johnson from the owner that spent a 1st round pick on him. You have the very real possibility of the hammy flaring back up, the suckatude of Matt Leinart who hasn't thrown a touchdown in 3 years, plus the fact that the offense has learned to function quite well without him. It's definitely possible that he could be a top 5 guy the rest of the way, but the price is going to be way too steep for me to take the risk.

I just traded Bradford and Kevin Smith for him. Did I pay too much?

I don't think many leagues are going to have an owner that held him the whole time he was hurt and then will turn around and trade him for something like that now that he's coming back.

I'd consider that deal in redraft right now if I were hurting at RB (and plenty of us are).

 

[GregR]

The Jags already had starting CB Rashean Mathis on IR, and just added their other corner, Derek Cox. So AJ will be drawing their third or fourth best cornerback.

With this news I could see the Jags using a lot of safety help and opening up the running game for Houston as a result.

 

[kingmalaki]

Interesting note from Roto:

http://rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/39371/179/matchups-lock-in-harvin?pg=3

All signs point to Andre Johnson (hamstring) playing extensively against the Jaguars after a full practice week. Johnson is as good a bet as any wideout to lead the NFL in "target rate" (player targets divided by team targets) the rest of the way. The conservative, run-dominated offense may cap Johnson's upside slightly, but I'd guess that when Leinart drops back there will be roughly a 40% chance his throws will be intended for Johnson. With top CB Rashean Mathis on injured reserve, it's hard to imagine the Jaguars keeping Johnson covered. Start 'em.

UPDATE: The Jaguars placed CB Derek Cox on injured reserve with a knee ailment Friday, ending his season. They've now lost both of their starting cornerbacks for the year, making it even more likely that Johnson will be open frequently in Sunday's game.