In the three games Tebow started last year Lloyd stat lines were 4-79 1TD 5-111 and 5-73 1 TD As a Lloyd owner I must admit that I am concerned but last years stats make me feel a little more comfortable. It's not like he can do much worse than he was doing with Orton at QB this year. The real problem may just be John Fox and it won't matter who is at QB if that is the case.Lloyd did fairly well with Tebow at the end of last year if I recall correctly.
you must not have played fantasy football last year where he led all fantasy QB's in scoring over the last 3 weeks....TEbow is A qb? That's news to me.
As a Bronco fan that has seen a lot of Lloyd and Tebow when he has played.In the short term I think starting Tebow affects Decker more then Lloyd. Lloyd will more often be the #1 read and will get the most targets. Decker's targets will drop due to Tebow not having the patience to go through all his reads. Decker will still get some "broken play" catches like we almost saw yesterday to go along with a lot of WR screens.I think that as the season progresses and Tebow gets more comfortable, he will start going through more reads and distributing the ball more.
I'll do my best to break this down. And I am using alot of data based on what I have seen, read and reviewed from the games this year.Orton under center:Lloyd - Weeks 1,3 and 4 Lloyd was doing what he should. He was the primary receiver making leaping catches and getting open more on slants and corner routes. But when Lloyd tried to go downfield Orton could not make the throws. One perfect example was in week 4 where Lloyd was WIDE open for a flea flicker. Orton underthrew him by two steps and Lloyd had to slow down. Lloyd was at least three steps ahead of the defender or else it would have been a TD.Decker - Weeks 2,3 and 4 Decker was in the starting lineup and it seemed like Orton had good chemistry with Decker. But after reviewing the games I believe we over looked something. During weeks 2,3 and 4 Decker caught 4 TDs. Two of these TDs were prayer throws by Orton. In other words, Decker's play making ability were the reason why these two TDs occured, NOT Orton. In week two, Orton chucked the ball on a timing route in his back shoulder. Decker leaped into the air and caught it leaving two defenders in a collision. In week 4 Decker made an adjustment in the endzone when Orton's throw had the wrong trajectory. It was supposed to fade over to Decker's right shoulder, but instead it faded over to his left. Decker pivot in reverse and made an adjustment for the TD. The other 2 TDs by Decker were short throws that Orton should and did make.I'm not an NFL scout but I can say this. Kyle Orton's throws were at the same level as someone like Tim Tebow. Orton was not able to make vertical throws downfield. And he was extremely erratic with his targets. I am not sure what is going on with Orton. But he is not making the same throws as he did last year. Is Orton injured? Is he arm tired? Who knows.Tebow under center: My predictionsLloyd - I expect Lloyd to continue to be the primary target. Alot of design plays will still cater to Lloyd. I do not see a drop off as Lloyd has proved that he can be productive last year with Tebow. And if anything, Orton was actually holding Lloyd back. Tim Tebow's ability to keep plays alive will result in more corner fades and leaping catches by Lloyd.Decker - I actually expect an UPGRADE here for Decker. And yes I am the minority here. Decker is a big target. And Tim Tebow is used to throwing to big receivers (Riley Cooper, David Nelson, and Aaron Hernandez) from his Florida days. I expect Decker to hold the WR2 position just because of his size and play making ability. The redzone scheme will be very interesting. When Tebow is flushed out of the pocket and defenders are running behind him, I think Tebow is gonna look for Decker.
This isn't last year.you must not have played fantasy football last year where he led all fantasy QB's in scoring over the last 3 weeks....TEbow is A qb? That's news to me.
Did you at least learn from last year?This isn't last year.you must not have played fantasy football last year where he led all fantasy QB's in scoring over the last 3 weeks....TEbow is A qb? That's news to me.
I like both Decker and Lloyd, but Tebow is going to throw for fewer yards. With Royal coming back I am selling.Just remember this. Even the best in the business, and I consider FBG to be the best, predicted mediocrity from Cam Newton. Steve Smith could be had for pennies on the dollar this past summer. DeAngelo Williams was certainly going to approach 300 carries to take the pressure off the rookie. And everyone knew it.Then the season happened. The point being you have a spectacular athlete with amazing work ethic and leadership ability coming into a great situation with two very talented wideouts, an experienced running back, a weak defense, and a coach who had back to back #1 fantasy wideouts who were different guys just a few years ago. Lloyd and Decker have very strong ball skills. Orton was a not good and they scored a ton of points. Tebow only has to be decent for them to improve. I'm buying.
In two years under Fox at Carolina, he had the #1 WR in th NFL. Once with Mushid Muhammad (2004), and another time with Steve Smith (2005).The real problem may just be John Fox and it won't matter who is at QB if that is the case.
Just remember this. Even the best in the business, and I consider FBG to be the best, predicted mediocrity from Cam Newton. Steve Smith could be had for pennies on the dollar this past summer. DeAngelo Williams was certainly going to approach 300 carries to take the pressure off the rookie. And everyone knew it.Then the season happened. The point being you have a spectacular athlete with amazing work ethic and leadership ability coming into a great situation with two very talented wideouts, an experienced running back, a weak defense, and a coach who had back to back #1 fantasy wideouts who were different guys just a few years ago. Lloyd and Decker have very strong ball skills. Orton was a not good and they scored a ton of points. Tebow only has to be decent for them to improve. I'm buying.
Great analysis, here. From everything Waldman discussed about him, and all that we've seen so far, Decker just seems like far too talented a football player to simply fall by the wayside. Bloom and Cecil (and most everyone) seem to be WAY down on his prospects going forward, perhaps partially due to the sting of Decker getting a zero last week. Two of Tebow's first three throws were to Decker when he was thrown into the pan this past week, resulting in 1 catch and zero yards, which was more yardage than he had from Orton in the first half. Lloyd also only had 2 targets from Tebow. Both Decker and Lloyd are players who will go up and fight for the ball and generally catch it if it's catchable. Lloyd should have the initial advantage as the first read for the next couple games, but we're still talking about a QB that's only started 3 games in his career, all in his rookie year with practically ZERO first-team prep prior to be thrown into the fray, so I'm going to be mindful of making TOO many assumptions about Tebow's tendencies and who his targets are going to be. Fwiw, Decker did catch a TD from Tebow in Week 17 last season, as well, on very limited snaps. ( Lloyd caught the other)Given that Decker seems to be for real, the above data about Tebow having success with similarly-sized targets during his college career is encouraging. The biggest question, as I posted above, is how the return of Royal and Demaryius Thomas will affect Decker and possibly even Lloyd.One last question: Does anyone know if Tebow and Decker have any history/chemistry from working together on the 2nd-team last season before Week 15?I'll do my best to break this down. And I am using alot of data based on what I have seen, read and reviewed from the games this year.Orton under center:Lloyd - Weeks 1,3 and 4 Lloyd was doing what he should. He was the primary receiver making leaping catches and getting open more on slants and corner routes. But when Lloyd tried to go downfield Orton could not make the throws. One perfect example was in week 4 where Lloyd was WIDE open for a flea flicker. Orton underthrew him by two steps and Lloyd had to slow down. Lloyd was at least three steps ahead of the defender or else it would have been a TD.Decker - Weeks 2,3 and 4 Decker was in the starting lineup and it seemed like Orton had good chemistry with Decker. But after reviewing the games I believe we over looked something. During weeks 2,3 and 4 Decker caught 4 TDs. Two of these TDs were prayer throws by Orton. In other words, Decker's play making ability were the reason why these two TDs occured, NOT Orton. In week two, Orton chucked the ball on a timing route in his back shoulder. Decker leaped into the air and caught it leaving two defenders in a collision. In week 4 Decker made an adjustment in the endzone when Orton's throw had the wrong trajectory. It was supposed to fade over to Decker's right shoulder, but instead it faded over to his left. Decker pivot in reverse and made an adjustment for the TD. The other 2 TDs by Decker were short throws that Orton should and did make.I'm not an NFL scout but I can say this. Kyle Orton's throws were at the same level as someone like Tim Tebow. Orton was not able to make vertical throws downfield. And he was extremely erratic with his targets. I am not sure what is going on with Orton. But he is not making the same throws as he did last year. Is Orton injured? Is he arm tired? Who knows.Tebow under center: My predictionsLloyd - I expect Lloyd to continue to be the primary target. Alot of design plays will still cater to Lloyd. I do not see a drop off as Lloyd has proved that he can be productive last year with Tebow. And if anything, Orton was actually holding Lloyd back. Tim Tebow's ability to keep plays alive will result in more corner fades and leaping catches by Lloyd.Decker - I actually expect an UPGRADE here for Decker. And yes I am the minority here. Decker is a big target. And Tim Tebow is used to throwing to big receivers (Riley Cooper, David Nelson, and Aaron Hernandez) from his Florida days. I expect Decker to hold the WR2 position just because of his size and play making ability. The redzone scheme will be very interesting. When Tebow is flushed out of the pocket and defenders are running behind him, I think Tebow is gonna look for Decker.
I'm honestly not as worried about the direct value Tebow will have as I am the fact that Royal, D-Thomas and J-Thomas are coming back and will presumably eat into his snaps/targets.
Do folks think Decker has the #2 spot locked up? He's got good size, hands and a high ypc, so I can see him being productive even on fewer targets....just not sure his entire role won't change with all the extra mouths coming back.
Im curious to see what happens when Thomas comes back. What do we think his role will be? Worth the add in Dynasty leagues?They are expected to possibly have Royal and D. Thomas back when they return from the bye week. That is reason alone to add confusion to an already muddled topic. Maybe they use the bye to get Tebow some chemistry with his WR's, but outside of Lloyd...this looks to be a mess.
just traded decker in dynasty for a 1st, a 2nd, and alex green.'shuke said:I hate that I have Lloyd and Decker on the same time. No way am I starting both these guys in the same week. Anyone here seeing Decker get any trade value since the Tebow starting announcement?
Why do you think McGahee's stock goes up? Most seem to think Tebow will vulture many redzone rushing TDs.It's a mighty big risk to have to rely on any Broncos receivers now. I think McGahee and Moreno are the ones that benefit with Tebow starting.
After the announcement I traded Decker for Boldin. Boldin hasn't done jack this year, but I don't trust Tebow enough to stay in the pocket and go through his progressions.'shuke said:I hate that I have Lloyd and Decker on the same time. No way am I starting both these guys in the same week. Anyone here seeing Decker get any trade value since the Tebow starting announcement?
That waas 7 and 8 years ago when most agree that Fox was a competant head coach. The times have past this guy up.In two years under Fox at Carolina, he had the #1 WR in th NFL. Once with Mushid Muhammad (2004), and another time with Steve Smith (2005).The real problem may just be John Fox and it won't matter who is at QB if that is the case.
They will run the ball more and Tebow will be throwing lots of screen passes. He's not likely to be throwing down field much. You are right that Tebow will vulture some TDs, but the run game should see a significant boost.Why do you think McGahee's stock goes up? Most seem to think Tebow will vulture many redzone rushing TDs.It's a mighty big risk to have to rely on any Broncos receivers now. I think McGahee and Moreno are the ones that benefit with Tebow starting.
It was just 2008 when Fox's Panthers were 12-4. They threw the ball a lot in 2009, but Delhomme was struggling bad that year. Fox likes to pound the ball, but his teams will air it out too.That waas 7 and 8 years ago when most agree that Fox was a competant head coach. The times have past this guy up.In two years under Fox at Carolina, he had the #1 WR in th NFL. Once with Mushid Muhammad (2004), and another time with Steve Smith (2005).The real problem may just be John Fox and it won't matter who is at QB if that is the case.
I just checked....small sample size, but Denver RBs ran the ball 19.76 times/game and saw a combined 6.5 targets/game last season pre-Tebow. In Tebow Time they ran it 21 per game and saw 5 targets/game. In total, RBs scored 8 TDs in 13 games w/out Tebow (.61/game) and 2 with him (.66/game), though none rushing. Tebow rushed for 4 TDs in the 3 games he started and 3 more 3 other games he saw snaps in and did more than hand the ball off. Only Buckhalter scored a single TD in the 3 games Tebow started.Personally, I don't think last year's sample will amount to much going forward, so it could go either way.They will run the ball more and Tebow will be throwing lots of screen passes. He's not likely be throwing down field much. You are right that Tebow will vulture some TDs, but the run game should see a significant boost.Why do you think McGahee's stock goes up? Most seem to think Tebow will vulture many redzone rushing TDs.It's a mighty big risk to have to rely on any Broncos receivers now. I think McGahee and Moreno are the ones that benefit with Tebow starting.