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Value of Denver WR w/ Tebow? (1 Viewer)
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
There are going to be a lot of people who know very little about Lloyd and very little about Tebow that are going to come in here and say the world is ending and Lloyd owners need panic.
The truth of the matter is that one of the things Tebow is willing to do is give his guys a chance to make a play on the ball downfield when they're in single coverage even if they're not "open" in the traditional sense of the word. Lloyd, meanwhile, has tremendous ball skills that make him a guy that is good at going up and getting the ball in spite of his relatively mediocre measurables.
Bottom line, Lloyd is good at going up and getting the ball and Tebow is one of the most willing QBs in the NFL to give his WRs a chance to go up and get the ball downfield. Kevin Kolb needs to take a lesson from Tebow in that respect.
The truth of the matter is that one of the things Tebow is willing to do is give his guys a chance to make a play on the ball downfield when they're in single coverage even if they're not "open" in the traditional sense of the word. Lloyd, meanwhile, has tremendous ball skills that make him a guy that is good at going up and getting the ball in spite of his relatively mediocre measurables.
Bottom line, Lloyd is good at going up and getting the ball and Tebow is one of the most willing QBs in the NFL to give his WRs a chance to go up and get the ball downfield. Kevin Kolb needs to take a lesson from Tebow in that respect.
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bro1ncos
IBL Representative
As a Bronco fan that has seen a lot of Lloyd and Tebow when he has played.
In the short term I think starting Tebow affects Decker more then Lloyd. Lloyd will more often be the #1 read and will get the most targets. Decker's targets will drop due to Tebow not having the patience to go through all his reads. Decker will still get some "broken play" catches like we almost saw yesterday to go along with a lot of WR screens.
I think that as the season progresses and Tebow gets more comfortable, he will start going through more reads and distributing the ball more.
In the short term I think starting Tebow affects Decker more then Lloyd. Lloyd will more often be the #1 read and will get the most targets. Decker's targets will drop due to Tebow not having the patience to go through all his reads. Decker will still get some "broken play" catches like we almost saw yesterday to go along with a lot of WR screens.
I think that as the season progresses and Tebow gets more comfortable, he will start going through more reads and distributing the ball more.
Al Toon's Mole
Footballguy
They are expected to possibly have Royal and D. Thomas back when they return from the bye week. That is reason alone to add confusion to an already muddled topic.
Maybe they use the bye to get Tebow some chemistry with his WR's, but outside of Lloyd...this looks to be a mess.
Maybe they use the bye to get Tebow some chemistry with his WR's, but outside of Lloyd...this looks to be a mess.
Pnishthm
Footballguy
In the three games Tebow started last year Lloyd stat lines were 4-79 1TD 5-111 and 5-73 1 TD As a Lloyd owner I must admit that I am concerned but last years stats make me feel a little more comfortable. It's not like he can do much worse than he was doing with Orton at QB this year. The real problem may just be John Fox and it won't matter who is at QB if that is the case.
Stinkin Ref
IBL Representative
you must not have played fantasy football last year where he led all fantasy QB's in scoring over the last 3 weeks....
As a Lloyd owner, I think Lloyd's value is right between where it was with Orton last year and where it was with Orton this year. Tebow will at least throw it to him and use his legs to improvise and find Lloyd deep down the field.
Dought Man
Footballguy
How could it be worse? Lloyd is barely a WR3...these clunker weeks are a killer...
I'll do my best to break this down. And I am using alot of data based on what I have seen, read and reviewed from the games this year.
Orton under center:
Lloyd - Weeks 1,3 and 4 Lloyd was doing what he should. He was the primary receiver making leaping catches and getting open more on slants and corner routes. But when Lloyd tried to go downfield Orton could not make the throws. One perfect example was in week 4 where Lloyd was WIDE open for a flea flicker. Orton underthrew him by two steps and Lloyd had to slow down. Lloyd was at least three steps ahead of the defender or else it would have been a TD.
Decker - Weeks 2,3 and 4 Decker was in the starting lineup and it seemed like Orton had good chemistry with Decker. But after reviewing the games I believe we over looked something. During weeks 2,3 and 4 Decker caught 4 TDs. Two of these TDs were prayer throws by Orton. In other words, Decker's play making ability were the reason why these two TDs occured, NOT Orton. In week two, Orton chucked the ball on a timing route in his back shoulder. Decker leaped into the air and caught it leaving two defenders in a collision. In week 4 Decker made an adjustment in the endzone when Orton's throw had the wrong trajectory. It was supposed to fade over to Decker's right shoulder, but instead it faded over to his left. Decker pivot in reverse and made an adjustment for the TD. The other 2 TDs by Decker were short throws that Orton should and did make.
I'm not an NFL scout but I can say this. Kyle Orton's throws were at the same level as someone like Tim Tebow. Orton was not able to make vertical throws downfield. And he was extremely erratic with his targets. I am not sure what is going on with Orton. But he is not making the same throws as he did last year. Is Orton injured? Is he arm tired? Who knows.
Tebow under center: My predictions
Lloyd - I expect Lloyd to continue to be the primary target. Alot of design plays will still cater to Lloyd. I do not see a drop off as Lloyd has proved that he can be productive last year with Tebow. And if anything, Orton was actually holding Lloyd back. Tim Tebow's ability to keep plays alive will result in more corner fades and leaping catches by Lloyd.
Decker - I actually expect an UPGRADE here for Decker. And yes I am the minority here. Decker is a big target. And Tim Tebow is used to throwing to big receivers (Riley Cooper, David Nelson, and Aaron Hernandez) from his Florida days. I expect Decker to hold the WR2 position just because of his size and play making ability. The redzone scheme will be very interesting. When Tebow is flushed out of the pocket and defenders are running behind him, I think Tebow is gonna look for Decker.
Orton under center:
Lloyd - Weeks 1,3 and 4 Lloyd was doing what he should. He was the primary receiver making leaping catches and getting open more on slants and corner routes. But when Lloyd tried to go downfield Orton could not make the throws. One perfect example was in week 4 where Lloyd was WIDE open for a flea flicker. Orton underthrew him by two steps and Lloyd had to slow down. Lloyd was at least three steps ahead of the defender or else it would have been a TD.
Decker - Weeks 2,3 and 4 Decker was in the starting lineup and it seemed like Orton had good chemistry with Decker. But after reviewing the games I believe we over looked something. During weeks 2,3 and 4 Decker caught 4 TDs. Two of these TDs were prayer throws by Orton. In other words, Decker's play making ability were the reason why these two TDs occured, NOT Orton. In week two, Orton chucked the ball on a timing route in his back shoulder. Decker leaped into the air and caught it leaving two defenders in a collision. In week 4 Decker made an adjustment in the endzone when Orton's throw had the wrong trajectory. It was supposed to fade over to Decker's right shoulder, but instead it faded over to his left. Decker pivot in reverse and made an adjustment for the TD. The other 2 TDs by Decker were short throws that Orton should and did make.
I'm not an NFL scout but I can say this. Kyle Orton's throws were at the same level as someone like Tim Tebow. Orton was not able to make vertical throws downfield. And he was extremely erratic with his targets. I am not sure what is going on with Orton. But he is not making the same throws as he did last year. Is Orton injured? Is he arm tired? Who knows.
Tebow under center: My predictions
Lloyd - I expect Lloyd to continue to be the primary target. Alot of design plays will still cater to Lloyd. I do not see a drop off as Lloyd has proved that he can be productive last year with Tebow. And if anything, Orton was actually holding Lloyd back. Tim Tebow's ability to keep plays alive will result in more corner fades and leaping catches by Lloyd.
Decker - I actually expect an UPGRADE here for Decker. And yes I am the minority here. Decker is a big target. And Tim Tebow is used to throwing to big receivers (Riley Cooper, David Nelson, and Aaron Hernandez) from his Florida days. I expect Decker to hold the WR2 position just because of his size and play making ability. The redzone scheme will be very interesting. When Tebow is flushed out of the pocket and defenders are running behind him, I think Tebow is gonna look for Decker.
He looked Lloyd's way a few times yesterday in the limited snaps he took. But TBH can things really be any worse for you Lloyd owners then they have gone thus far with Orton? I'd be more concerned about Decker if I owned him. But I will never ever buy into the Denver offense, it's a very messy thing.
BroncoFreak_2K3
sucker for Orange
Scooby1974
Footballguy
Everyone brings up that Tebow didn't hurt Lloyd's numbers last year...which is great. However with Demarius Thomas on IR last year, he didn't need any playing time. Nor was Decker an issue last year. I think when you add those two into the mix with Royal..........I don't see how Timmy can keep anyone/everyone happy. We have yet to bring up Julius Thomas, an actual threat at TE as well. I personally think LLoyd saw his "perfect storm" come together last year, and now we are seeing him fall back to reality.
strong
Footballguy
This isn't last year.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Just remember this. Even the best in the business, and I consider FBG to be the best, predicted mediocrity from Cam Newton. Steve Smith could be had for pennies on the dollar this past summer. DeAngelo Williams was certainly going to approach 300 carries to take the pressure off the rookie. And everyone knew it.
Then the season happened. The point being you have a spectacular athlete with amazing work ethic and leadership ability coming into a great situation with two very talented wideouts, an experienced running back, a weak defense, and a coach who had back to back #1 fantasy wideouts who were different guys just a few years ago.
Lloyd and Decker have very strong ball skills. Orton was a not good and they scored a ton of points. Tebow only has to be decent for them to improve. I'm buying.
Then the season happened. The point being you have a spectacular athlete with amazing work ethic and leadership ability coming into a great situation with two very talented wideouts, an experienced running back, a weak defense, and a coach who had back to back #1 fantasy wideouts who were different guys just a few years ago.
Lloyd and Decker have very strong ball skills. Orton was a not good and they scored a ton of points. Tebow only has to be decent for them to improve. I'm buying.
Spanky24
Footballguy
Did you at least learn from last year?
Touchdown There
Footballguy
I like both Decker and Lloyd, but Tebow is going to throw for fewer yards. With Royal coming back I am selling.
meanjoegreen
Footballguy
In two years under Fox at Carolina, he had the #1 WR in th NFL. Once with Mushid Muhammad (2004), and another time with Steve Smith (2005).
FantasyTrader
Footballguy
I do think Decker loses value with Tebow under center, but the Newton example is a good reminder of the fact that all we're doing is making educated guesses.I'm honestly not as worried about the direct value Tebow will have as I am the fact that Royal, D-Thomas and J-Thomas are coming back and will presumably eat into his snaps/targets.
Do folks think Decker has the #2 spot locked up? He's got good size, hands and a high ypc, so I can see him being productive even on fewer targets....just not sure his entire role won't change with all the extra mouths coming back.
Do folks think Decker has the #2 spot locked up? He's got good size, hands and a high ypc, so I can see him being productive even on fewer targets....just not sure his entire role won't change with all the extra mouths coming back.
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Great analysis, here. From everything Waldman discussed about him, and all that we've seen so far, Decker just seems like far too talented a football player to simply fall by the wayside. Bloom and Cecil (and most everyone) seem to be WAY down on his prospects going forward, perhaps partially due to the sting of Decker getting a zero last week. Two of Tebow's first three throws were to Decker when he was thrown into the pan this past week, resulting in 1 catch and zero yards, which was more yardage than he had from Orton in the first half. Lloyd also only had 2 targets from Tebow. Both Decker and Lloyd are players who will go up and fight for the ball and generally catch it if it's catchable. Lloyd should have the initial advantage as the first read for the next couple games, but we're still talking about a QB that's only started 3 games in his career, all in his rookie year with practically ZERO first-team prep prior to be thrown into the fray, so I'm going to be mindful of making TOO many assumptions about Tebow's tendencies and who his targets are going to be. Fwiw, Decker did catch a TD from Tebow in Week 17 last season, as well, on very limited snaps. ( Lloyd caught the other)Given that Decker seems to be for real, the above data about Tebow having success with similarly-sized targets during his college career is encouraging. The biggest question, as I posted above, is how the return of Royal and Demaryius Thomas will affect Decker and possibly even Lloyd.One last question: Does anyone know if Tebow and Decker have any history/chemistry from working together on the 2nd-team last season before Week 15?
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Fireballer
Footballguy
What was behind the negative comments that Lloyd had in reference to Tebow becoming the starter? When were these comments made? I saw them recently, but I'll have to hunt for the link.
DoubleG
Footballguy
The concern here, imho, is two-fold. Not only do you have to factor in a new QB, but as and many others have stated, you have Royal - and in some ways more importantly to Decker - D. Thomas coming back after the bye.In 2010 D. Thomas was looking like Decker has this year - only better. Thomas is bigger and faster than Decker. The question is, how much will they work Thomas back in and to what degree (if any) will he be slowed by his injuries. I don't think it will be an issue in the near future (i.e. week 7 or 8) - but it is certainly something to pay attention to and be concerned about long-term.
Furious Yeti
Footballguy
It's a mighty big risk to have to rely on any Broncos receivers now. I think McGahee and Moreno are the ones that benefit with Tebow starting.
Bronx Bomber
Footballguy
Im curious to see what happens when Thomas comes back. What do we think his role will be? Worth the add in Dynasty leagues?
Why do you think McGahee's stock goes up? Most seem to think Tebow will vulture many redzone rushing TDs.
sharptongued1
Footballguy
After the announcement I traded Decker for Boldin. Boldin hasn't done jack this year, but I don't trust Tebow enough to stay in the pocket and go through his progressions.'shuke said:
DukeBroadway
Footballguy
I am thinking about swinging Boldin/Tate for LLoyd/Starks. Other guy has Foster. I am a Boldin fan, however his talents are being wasted in Baltimore.
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Pnishthm
Footballguy
That waas 7 and 8 years ago when most agree that Fox was a competant head coach. The times have past this guy up.
Furious Yeti
Footballguy
They will run the ball more and Tebow will be throwing lots of screen passes. He's not likely to be throwing down field much. You are right that Tebow will vulture some TDs, but the run game should see a significant boost.
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drfeelgood
Footballguy
It was just 2008 when Fox's Panthers were 12-4. They threw the ball a lot in 2009, but Delhomme was struggling bad that year. Fox likes to pound the ball, but his teams will air it out too.
Islanders rule
Footballguy
I think Royal will eat into Deckers #'s. Royal will work the slot and be a quick strike/safety valve for Tebow. I think LLoyd & McGahee' #'s will be fine with Decker & Moreno's numbers suffering because on the return of Royal.
Tight end fells should benefit with Tebow @ QB as well.
Tight end fells should benefit with Tebow @ QB as well.
I just checked....small sample size, but Denver RBs ran the ball 19.76 times/game and saw a combined 6.5 targets/game last season pre-Tebow. In Tebow Time they ran it 21 per game and saw 5 targets/game. In total, RBs scored 8 TDs in 13 games w/out Tebow (.61/game) and 2 with him (.66/game), though none rushing. Tebow rushed for 4 TDs in the 3 games he started and 3 more 3 other games he saw snaps in and did more than hand the ball off. Only Buckhalter scored a single TD in the 3 games Tebow started.Personally, I don't think last year's sample will amount to much going forward, so it could go either way.
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Winning IS Everything
Footballguy
Deep keeper league here (10 team 10 player) and I was just offered his Lloyd and a 2012 2nd rounder (likely early to mid 2nd) for my Pierre Garcon. I like the sell high option and buy low option possibilities here, but I really do worry about that Denver O.....
I would guess if you wanted to buy low and believe in the offense, you might get Lloyd on the cheap.
I would guess if you wanted to buy low and believe in the offense, you might get Lloyd on the cheap.
