Value of QBs vs RBs in 2011 (1 Viewer)

[RavenLunatic]

It is obvious that performance declines from the top players to 2nd and 3rd tier performers at any position, but I thought it would be useful to know empirically which position (QB or RB) has a higher rate of diminishing return.

This is assuming a start one QB, start two RB league. All TDs are worth 6 points. 1 pt per 25 passing yards, 1 pt per 10 rush/rec yards. Non-PPR.

I looked just at 2011 data, and compared QB1 down to QB18...and comparing RB1 down to RB36. The idea being to see the % drop off between performance tiers.

QB1 is compared to QB6, QB12 and QB18.

QB6 is then compared to QB12 and QB18.

RB1 is compared to RB12, RB 24 and RB36

RB12 is then compared to RB24 and RB36

I wish I could import the chart I drew but what I found confirms our general assumption that the rate of decline is noticeably sharper for starting RBs than it is for QBs.

If you include WRs in the discussion it becomes even more obvious that RB is still king.

To me, this strengthens the idea of stocking up on top RB talent and utilizing a "QBBC" until you develop a top 6 QB naturally...at least using the stated scoring formal of start 1QB, 2 RB. When you can flex a RB (or WR), the value of the RB increases.

 

[Grahamburn]

I agree with the analysis when you're looking back at the season, but as we all know, we don't get to look back in fantasy football. You have to find the value before the season is over.

Simply placing an arbitrary QB6 or RB12 on a player isn't going to help much unless you're able to determine who that player is going to be before the season starts.

You state "RB is still king." Well, how so? Did you have Marshawn Lynch, Willis McGahee, Cedric Benson, and Reggie Bush finishing the season top 12 in rushing yards? Was Darren Sproles on anyone's top 5 radar? What about the guys drafting Chris Johnson, ADP, Matt Forte, Mendenhall or Darren McFadden early. Sure, if you manage to hit the RB lotto and predict the handful of RBs that can make it through a 16 game season unscathed you'll be in good shape. Good luck doing that consistently though.

How about top 10 QBs in passing yards? Well, those guys were pretty easy to spot other than Cam Newton. Especially the top guys. I doubt anyone who took Rodgers, Brady, or Brees early was upset with their choice. It'd actually be pretty simple to make the counter argument that it's quite a bit easier to find RB production much later in the draft than it is to find solid/elite QB play.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Draftin RBs is dead.

and like grahamburn said, good luck with your RB injury crystal ball

 

[Sienna2012]

I agree with you, generally, I tend to wait till round 6 or 7 before I draft a QB. I do not see the position as being dead. I think draft position plays a role too. If you have a top four pick, how do you justify passing on possibly drafting Rice, Foster, or Mccoy or maybe even MJD? You cant predict injury's when it comes to running backs, but you can be diligent when it comes to playing the waiver wire. Lynch, Mcgahee, Reggie Bush and Sproles were all out on waivers in most leagues. I can win with a Matt Ryan/Schaub and a couple of top tier running backs, if I go RB RB with my first two picks. I tend to go RB/WR though. IMO running backs are still important. You just have to be smart, if you were a DMC owner, how many games did he win you because of the numbers he put up, but you have to have been smart and picked up Micheal Bush off of waivers or as a handcuff.

 

[Grahamburn]

I agree with you, generally, I tend to wait till round 6 or 7 before I draft a QB. I do not see the position as being dead. I think draft position plays a role too. If you have a top four pick, how do you justify passing on possibly drafting Rice, Foster, or Mccoy or maybe even MJD? You cant predict injury's when it comes to running backs, but you can be diligent when it comes to playing the waiver wire. Lynch, Mcgahee, Reggie Bush and Sproles were all out on waivers in most leagues. I can win with a Matt Ryan/Schaub and a couple of top tier running backs, if I go RB RB with my first two picks. I tend to go RB/WR though. IMO running backs are still important. You just have to be smart, if you were a DMC owner, how many games did he win you because of the numbers he put up, but you have to have been smart and picked up Micheal Bush off of waivers or as a handcuff.

You're basically doing the same thing the OP is doing. Any of us can look back at 2011 in a vacuum and go, "nice, those guys are studs, that's who I'm drafting early in 2012." The problem with that line of thinking is your miss rate. Before the season started, who were the top RB picks? How many finished there?Who were the top QB picks? How many finished there?

We're basically arguing strategy. That's ok. There's plenty of ways to win a league. I simply disagree that drafting RBs early is still the no brainer way to approach this hobby. I can't predict injuries, but I can predict more RBs will get injured than QBs with relative certainty. I can also predict with relative certainty that those early elite QBs will accumulate many more fantasy points than the top RBs.

Positional scarcity you say? Stating that those runners were on waiver wires, although I doubt too many of them were, kind of makes my point for me. Is it easier to find a productive RB or a productive QB on the waiver wire?

I'd say quite a few more leagues were won this year with a stud QB + late round RBs than vice versa.

 

[Shutout]

Three of the four leagues I was in last year featured Brees as the QB and, overall, all the finalists in my leagues were the "elite QBs" much more than the elite RBs.

Also, all my leagues are 4pts for QB TDs.

Looking over it at a glance, my leagues were pretty much the antithesis example of the OP's statement as every league final game featured the big boy QBs and over half of those teams were mix and match RBs (Rice and Ryan matthews were on a few of those teams but for the most part, the RBs corps were guys like Bradshaw, Mendenhall, Pierre thomas, and a virtual "who's who list of guys that would have been overlooked in the pre-season or 2nd tier guys at best).

In fairness, it should be said that most good and balanced leagues require a complete "team" of players to win and not just a situation where one guy can carry the whole thing. The biggest correlation I saw this year across my leagues was that the successful teams tended to have the top QBS and one of the top 4-5 TEs.

 

[David Yudkin]

IMO, RB is just as important as ever given that there are fewer bell cow, heavy carry backs. However, depending upon each individual scoring system, I would certainly prefer to be a team with a true fantasy stud at QB than one that gets forced to play a low end fantasy starter at QB.

Put another way, the difference in fantasy scoring in a 12-team league at QB (looking at the FBG fantasy ranking tool) was 203 points. The RB that scored 203 points from the #1 RB was the #37 RB. There is a lot more to lose by not getting a top QB these days than not getting a top RB. I don't care where someone drafts their QB . . . but they better get a guy that scores near the top of the league or that team will probably be hurting each week.

 

[Stompin' Tom Connors]

IMO, RB is just as important as ever given that there are fewer bell cow, heavy carry backs. However, depending upon each individual scoring system, I would certainly prefer to be a team with a true fantasy stud at QB than one that gets forced to play a low end fantasy starter at QB. Put another way, the difference in fantasy scoring in a 12-team league at QB (looking at the FBG fantasy ranking tool) was 203 points. The RB that scored 203 points from the #1 RB was the #37 RB. There is a lot more to lose by not getting a top QB these days than not getting a top RB. I don't care where someone drafts their QB . . . but they better get a guy that scores near the top of the league or that team will probably be hurting each week.

In general I agree with this -- the importance of getting a stud RB is still very high, but the delta of importance between getting a reliable 3-down RB and a stud QB may have diminished.The problem with using just this past year as a sample set in looking at the FFP spread between #1 and #12 at QB is that we won't have single-season passing records set every year. But it's been a pass-happy league, and unless they change some of rules or the flag-happy enforcement about protecting QBs and "defenseless" WRs, I imagine the general theory will hold up when you look at past few years, and the few years to come.

 

[RavenLunatic]

I just was looking at data and the rate of diminishing return on PPG by position. Not arguing who should be taken or drafting strategy. But after the top 5-7 QBs it really becomes less and less important which QB you have.

Depth at RB helps offset the inevitable injuries at the position.

This also is more about dynasty where you can't just target a top QB each year but have to develop a roster.

 

[Sienna2012]

I agree with you, generally, I tend to wait till round 6 or 7 before I draft a QB. I do not see the position as being dead. I think draft position plays a role too. If you have a top four pick, how do you justify passing on possibly drafting Rice, Foster, or Mccoy or maybe even MJD? You cant predict injury's when it comes to running backs, but you can be diligent when it comes to playing the waiver wire. Lynch, Mcgahee, Reggie Bush and Sproles were all out on waivers in most leagues. I can win with a Matt Ryan/Schaub and a couple of top tier running backs, if I go RB RB with my first two picks. I tend to go RB/WR though. IMO running backs are still important. You just have to be smart, if you were a DMC owner, how many games did he win you because of the numbers he put up, but you have to have been smart and picked up Micheal Bush off of waivers or as a handcuff.

You're basically doing the same thing the OP is doing. Any of us can look back at 2011 in a vacuum and go, "nice, those guys are studs, that's who I'm drafting early in 2012." The problem with that line of thinking is your miss rate. Before the season started, who were the top RB picks? How many finished there?Who were the top QB picks? How many finished there?

We're basically arguing strategy. That's ok. There's plenty of ways to win a league. I simply disagree that drafting RBs early is still the no brainer way to approach this hobby. I can't predict injuries, but I can predict more RBs will get injured than QBs with relative certainty. I can also predict with relative certainty that those early elite QBs will accumulate many more fantasy points than the top RBs.

Positional scarcity you say? Stating that those runners were on waiver wires, although I doubt too many of them were, kind of makes my point for me. Is it easier to find a productive RB or a productive QB on the waiver wire?

I'd say quite a few more leagues were won this year with a stud QB + late round RBs than vice versa.

I can tell you the top picks in my league were Foster, Mccoy, Rice, Maurice Jones Drew and Charles, were the first running backs off the board and they performed. Jammal Charles was the only rb that people missed on if they drafted early. So 4 out of the 5 top rb were extremely productive and enjoyed for the most part injury free season. All of them have a proven track record except for Charles and that's not looking into a vacuum. I agree though running backs get hurt more often, but that is the one position that you need to draft well and have depth. It is easier to find running backs on waiver, but if I wanted an elite Qb, there will be one in second and third rounds, which makes passing on a top rb drafting out of fourth position dumb on my part, imo. I mean, there are maybe 5-6 elite QBs that will be drafting between 1-3 rounds, especially in a ten team draft which mine is.

 

[Kenny Powers]

I was pondering going stud QB next year if Im picking late first, but I probably wont because I think Rivers, Schaub, and Vick will all be great values next year coming off down/injured years (although Vick isnt quite as valuable in a 6pt pass TD league). I think you still gotta go RB or WR in the first few rounds (or Gronk or Graham), and go from there. You should still be able to get a Romo or Eli in the 4th-5th, a Roethlisberger or Ryan in the 6th-7th, and then the aforementioned 3 values from the 7th-8th.

 

[Kenny Powers]

I agree with you, generally, I tend to wait till round 6 or 7 before I draft a QB. I do not see the position as being dead. I think draft position plays a role too. If you have a top four pick, how do you justify passing on possibly drafting Rice, Foster, or Mccoy or maybe even MJD? You cant predict injury's when it comes to running backs, but you can be diligent when it comes to playing the waiver wire. Lynch, Mcgahee, Reggie Bush and Sproles were all out on waivers in most leagues. I can win with a Matt Ryan/Schaub and a couple of top tier running backs, if I go RB RB with my first two picks. I tend to go RB/WR though. IMO running backs are still important. You just have to be smart, if you were a DMC owner, how many games did he win you because of the numbers he put up, but you have to have been smart and picked up Micheal Bush off of waivers or as a handcuff.

Those RBs were all drafted in the top 10 rounds in my leagues. Sproles wasnt even a WW guy in the short bench, 10 team fee ESPN leagues I did after week 1 or 2.

 

[Grahamburn]

I agree with you, generally, I tend to wait till round 6 or 7 before I draft a QB. I do not see the position as being dead. I think draft position plays a role too. If you have a top four pick, how do you justify passing on possibly drafting Rice, Foster, or Mccoy or maybe even MJD? You cant predict injury's when it comes to running backs, but you can be diligent when it comes to playing the waiver wire. Lynch, Mcgahee, Reggie Bush and Sproles were all out on waivers in most leagues. I can win with a Matt Ryan/Schaub and a couple of top tier running backs, if I go RB RB with my first two picks. I tend to go RB/WR though. IMO running backs are still important. You just have to be smart, if you were a DMC owner, how many games did he win you because of the numbers he put up, but you have to have been smart and picked up Micheal Bush off of waivers or as a handcuff.

You're basically doing the same thing the OP is doing. Any of us can look back at 2011 in a vacuum and go, "nice, those guys are studs, that's who I'm drafting early in 2012." The problem with that line of thinking is your miss rate. Before the season started, who were the top RB picks? How many finished there?Who were the top QB picks? How many finished there?

We're basically arguing strategy. That's ok. There's plenty of ways to win a league. I simply disagree that drafting RBs early is still the no brainer way to approach this hobby. I can't predict injuries, but I can predict more RBs will get injured than QBs with relative certainty. I can also predict with relative certainty that those early elite QBs will accumulate many more fantasy points than the top RBs.

Positional scarcity you say? Stating that those runners were on waiver wires, although I doubt too many of them were, kind of makes my point for me. Is it easier to find a productive RB or a productive QB on the waiver wire?

I'd say quite a few more leagues were won this year with a stud QB + late round RBs than vice versa.

I can tell you the top picks in my league were Foster, Mccoy, Rice, Maurice Jones Drew and Charles, were the first running backs off the board and they performed. Jammal Charles was the only rb that people missed on if they drafted early. So 4 out of the 5 top rb were extremely productive and enjoyed for the most part injury free season. All of them have a proven track record except for Charles and that's not looking into a vacuum. I agree though running backs get hurt more often, but that is the one position that you need to draft well and have depth. It is easier to find running backs on waiver, but if I wanted an elite Qb, there will be one in second and third rounds, which makes passing on a top rb drafting out of fourth position dumb on my part, imo. I mean, there are maybe 5-6 elite QBs that will be drafting between 1-3 rounds, especially in a ten team draft which mine is.

Really? Nobody drafted Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Darren McFadden, or Rashard Mendenhall in the first round in your league? Including Charles, that's 5 early pick RBs that disappointed in some manner or another. Like I said earlier, if you want to play the RB lotto that's your prerogative. Identifying and drafting the elite QBs is exponentially easier than it is to figure out which running back is going to play a healthy 16 games and produce. That being said, if you can hit on your early RB pick, AND land a QB that breaks out like Stafford or Cam did this season you'll probably blow your league out of the water.

I just see it becoming much easier to do it the other way around.

A top 4 pick? I probably couldn't pull the trigger on a QB that early either, but you could certainly make the argument. In hindsight, would the guy who spent that early pick on CJ, ADP, or Charles have rather had Aaron Rodgers?

 

[Tanner9919]

Id imagine most leagues will switch to rb ppr to make up for lobsided qb scoring from the likes of Brees,Rodgers,etc..

 

[Sienna2012]

I agree with you, generally, I tend to wait till round 6 or 7 before I draft a QB. I do not see the position as being dead. I think draft position plays a role too. If you have a top four pick, how do you justify passing on possibly drafting Rice, Foster, or Mccoy or maybe even MJD? You cant predict injury's when it comes to running backs, but you can be diligent when it comes to playing the waiver wire. Lynch, Mcgahee, Reggie Bush and Sproles were all out on waivers in most leagues. I can win with a Matt Ryan/Schaub and a couple of top tier running backs, if I go RB RB with my first two picks. I tend to go RB/WR though. IMO running backs are still important. You just have to be smart, if you were a DMC owner, how many games did he win you because of the numbers he put up, but you have to have been smart and picked up Micheal Bush off of waivers or as a handcuff.

You're basically doing the same thing the OP is doing. Any of us can look back at 2011 in a vacuum and go, "nice, those guys are studs, that's who I'm drafting early in 2012." The problem with that line of thinking is your miss rate. Before the season started, who were the top RB picks? How many finished there?Who were the top QB picks? How many finished there?

We're basically arguing strategy. That's ok. There's plenty of ways to win a league. I simply disagree that drafting RBs early is still the no brainer way to approach this hobby. I can't predict injuries, but I can predict more RBs will get injured than QBs with relative certainty. I can also predict with relative certainty that those early elite QBs will accumulate many more fantasy points than the top RBs.

Positional scarcity you say? Stating that those runners were on waiver wires, although I doubt too many of them were, kind of makes my point for me. Is it easier to find a productive RB or a productive QB on the waiver wire?

I'd say quite a few more leagues were won this year with a stud QB + late round RBs than vice versa.

I can tell you the top picks in my league were Foster, Mccoy, Rice, Maurice Jones Drew and Charles, were the first running backs off the board and they performed. Jammal Charles was the only rb that people missed on if they drafted early. So 4 out of the 5 top rb were extremely productive and enjoyed for the most part injury free season. All of them have a proven track record except for Charles and that's not looking into a vacuum. I agree though running backs get hurt more often, but that is the one position that you need to draft well and have depth. It is easier to find running backs on waiver, but if I wanted an elite Qb, there will be one in second and third rounds, which makes passing on a top rb drafting out of fourth position dumb on my part, imo. I mean, there are maybe 5-6 elite QBs that will be drafting between 1-3 rounds, especially in a ten team draft which mine is.

Really? Nobody drafted Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Darren McFadden, or Rashard Mendenhall in the first round in your league? Including Charles, that's 5 early pick RBs that disappointed in some manner or another. Like I said earlier, if you want to play the RB lotto that's your prerogative. Identifying and drafting the elite QBs is exponentially easier than it is to figure out which running back is going to play a healthy 16 games and produce. That being said, if you can hit on your early RB pick, AND land a QB that breaks out like Stafford or Cam did this season you'll probably blow your league out of the water.

I just see it becoming much easier to do it the other way around.

A top 4 pick? I probably couldn't pull the trigger on a QB that early either, but you could certainly make the argument. In hindsight, would the guy who spent that early pick on CJ, ADP, or Charles have rather had Aaron Rodgers?

lol I forgot about AP, but yes,Chris Johnson,Mendy and DMC were not drafted in the first round. No one wanted to take a chance on Chris Johnson,DMC or Mendy. They went in second round in my league. Which was a smart move, because they all stunk. I never mentioned those guys in my post, but Yeah whoever drafted Charles or was stupid enough to take a chance on Chris Johsnon would have loved have Rodgers, now that they look back on it lol. Its all opinion/personal draft strategy, but I am not pulling the trigger on an elite qb with a top 4 pick when I can get one on the second if I wanted one. Charles, Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson, AP, MJD, Ray Rice, Lesean Mccoy, Foster, Rodgers, and Brees, were the first ten guys taken.

 

[Sienna2012]

I was pondering going stud QB next year if Im picking late first, but I probably wont because I think Rivers, Schaub, and Vick will all be great values next year coming off down/injured years (although Vick isnt quite as valuable in a 6pt pass TD league). I think you still gotta go RB or WR in the first few rounds (or Gronk or Graham), and go from there. You should still be able to get a Romo or Eli in the 4th-5th, a Roethlisberger or Ryan in the 6th-7th, and then the aforementioned 3 values from the 7th-8th.

 

[cobalt_27]

Amazing how incongruent fantasy league setups/thinking are compared to real life. At least in 2QB leagues it mitigates this crazy RB-RB-RB-etc silliness in draft strategy.

To be honest, if you're still playing in a league where you feel comfortable waiting to draft the most important position in football until the 5th or 6th round, you are still living in the Dark Ages of fantasy football.

 

[Grahamburn]

I was pondering going stud QB next year if Im picking late first, but I probably wont because I think Rivers, Schaub, and Vick will all be great values next year coming off down/injured years (although Vick isnt quite as valuable in a 6pt pass TD league). I think you still gotta go RB or WR in the first few rounds (or Gronk or Graham), and go from there. You should still be able to get a Romo or Eli in the 4th-5th, a Roethlisberger or Ryan in the 6th-7th, and then the aforementioned 3 values from the 7th-8th.

It's a great strategy if you draft the player that breaks out and keeps up with the elites. Which one of those guys will it be? Like I said earlier, it's pretty easy to spot the players at the QB position that can be relied on for big points.The difference between Rodgers (1) and Rivers (9) was a staggering 192.9 points in my 6 pts per pass TD league. I'm sure the guy who waited two rounds for Rivers thought he was super smart after the draft.

Bad comparison? Ok.. The difference between Brady (3) and Ryan (8) was still 112.3, and Ryan finished eighth in this 12 team league.

For comparisons sake, Rice (1) scored 336.8 (143.5 fewer than Rodgers) in this particular .5 PPR. Those points differences are an enormous advantage. If you can't see that you're absolutely blind.

In a 12 team, 6 pts per pass TD league, most of the top ranked QBs are gone in the first 4-5 rounds at the latest. Where were guys like Michael Bush, Sproles, Lynch, and Reggie Bush going? All of those players were top 12 RBs in most leagues, and all were probably 9th round picks or later.

Other than Cam Newton, the likes of which will probably never happen again, there weren't ANY elite QBs (or even marginal QB1s) after the 9th round, and depending on how high someone was on Stafford there probably weren't any after the 7th.

 

[Warrior]

Agreed. I'll continue to take home league titles with the Tebows and Newtons of Fantasy Football and let you guys waste first/second round picks on QB's.

 

[Sienna2012]

Agreed. I'll continue to take home league titles with the Tebows and Newtons of Fantasy Football and let you guys waste first/second round picks on QB's.

Love Ultimate Warrior!

 

[Grahamburn]

Agreed. I'll continue to take home league titles with the Tebows and Newtons of Fantasy Football and let you guys waste first/second round picks on QB's.

If you managed to win with Tebow's points (11.8) in week 16, congratulations. I'd say that's probably the exception, not the rule. I can't see too many victories for Tebow owners against the following week 16 performances: Rodgers (43), Brees (31.1), Brady (31.7), Stafford (33.3), or Cam (37.3).

 

[David Yudkin]

Agreed. I'll continue to take home league titles with the Tebows and Newtons of Fantasy Football and let you guys waste first/second round picks on QB's.

If you managed to win with Tebow's points (11.8) in week 16, congratulations. I'd say that's probably the exception, not the rule. I can't see too many victories for Tebow owners against the following week 16 performances: Rodgers (43), Brees (31.1), Brady (31.7), Stafford (33.3), or Cam (37.3).

I think the problem in waiting on drafting a fantasy QB given the current landscape is that, sure, you can hit a home run with a later round pick, but if you swing and miss your team has A LOT of ground to cover to make up for poor QB scoring. Let's say someone drafted Tim Tebow along with Josh Freeman last year. Maybe throw in someone like Matt Cassel for good measure. Would that team really have been in a solid position to compete against teams with Brees, Rodgers, Brady, etc.? The scoring hit at QB alone could potentially have been so big some weeks that it could have been insurmountable no matter who else was in your starting line up.

 

[Sienna2012]

Agreed. I'll continue to take home league titles with the Tebows and Newtons of Fantasy Football and let you guys waste first/second round picks on QB's.

If you managed to win with Tebow's points (11.8) in week 16, congratulations. I'd say that's probably the exception, not the rule. I can't see too many victories for Tebow owners against the following week 16 performances: Rodgers (43), Brees (31.1), Brady (31.7), Stafford (33.3), or Cam (37.3).

I think the problem in waiting on drafting a fantasy QB given the current landscape is that, sure, you can hit a home run with a later round pick, but if you swing and miss your team has A LOT of ground to cover to make up for poor QB scoring. Let's say someone drafted Tim Tebow along with Josh Freeman last year. Maybe throw in someone like Matt Cassel for good measure. Would that team really have been in a solid position to compete against teams with Brees, Rodgers, Brady, etc.? The scoring hit at QB alone could potentially have been so big some weeks that it could have been insurmountable no matter who else was in your starting line up.

I won my league with Stafford as a late 9th round pick and then got Josh Freeman. Josh Freeman I dropped after a few weeks. Picked up Tebow and then managed to trade for Rivers to have a back up to Stafford. The QB pool will be deep enough in 2012 where you can still pick a viable QB in fourth or 5th rounds, ie Rivers and Eli. If you whiff you are in trouble, but drafting deep and well, will give you plenty trade bait, when the qb you draft late fails.

 

[Kenny Powers]

I was pondering going stud QB next year if Im picking late first, but I probably wont because I think Rivers, Schaub, and Vick will all be great values next year coming off down/injured years (although Vick isnt quite as valuable in a 6pt pass TD league). I think you still gotta go RB or WR in the first few rounds (or Gronk or Graham), and go from there. You should still be able to get a Romo or Eli in the 4th-5th, a Roethlisberger or Ryan in the 6th-7th, and then the aforementioned 3 values from the 7th-8th.

It's a great strategy if you draft the player that breaks out and keeps up with the elites. Which one of those guys will it be? Like I said earlier, it's pretty easy to spot the players at the QB position that can be relied on for big points.The difference between Rodgers (1) and Rivers (9) was a staggering 192.9 points in my 6 pts per pass TD league. I'm sure the guy who waited two rounds for Rivers thought he was super smart after the draft.

Bad comparison? Ok.. The difference between Brady (3) and Ryan (8) was still 112.3, and Ryan finished eighth in this 12 team league.

For comparisons sake, Rice (1) scored 336.8 (143.5 fewer than Rodgers) in this particular .5 PPR. Those points differences are an enormous advantage. If you can't see that you're absolutely blind.

In a 12 team, 6 pts per pass TD league, most of the top ranked QBs are gone in the first 4-5 rounds at the latest. Where were guys like Michael Bush, Sproles, Lynch, and Reggie Bush going? All of those players were top 12 RBs in most leagues, and all were probably 9th round picks or later.

Other than Cam Newton, the likes of which will probably never happen again, there weren't ANY elite QBs (or even marginal QB1s) after the 9th round, and depending on how high someone was on Stafford there probably weren't any after the 7th.

What was the scoring difference between Rice and the 12th RB? 24th RB? I dont care how many more points Rodgers scored than Rice, you draft value based on dropoff withing a position, not between positions.Funny how you bring up a handful of RBs who had great years that you couldve gotten late and make it sound like they were easy to target. What are the chances of finding your RB2 or RB3 i Round 6+ and hitting on it? Id say much slimmer than waiting until that point to draft your starting QB, and a QB you know you can still count on - Rivers, Ryan, Roethlisberger, Vick, etc.

 

[Grahamburn]

I was pondering going stud QB next year if Im picking late first, but I probably wont because I think Rivers, Schaub, and Vick will all be great values next year coming off down/injured years (although Vick isnt quite as valuable in a 6pt pass TD league). I think you still gotta go RB or WR in the first few rounds (or Gronk or Graham), and go from there. You should still be able to get a Romo or Eli in the 4th-5th, a Roethlisberger or Ryan in the 6th-7th, and then the aforementioned 3 values from the 7th-8th.

It's a great strategy if you draft the player that breaks out and keeps up with the elites. Which one of those guys will it be? Like I said earlier, it's pretty easy to spot the players at the QB position that can be relied on for big points.The difference between Rodgers (1) and Rivers (9) was a staggering 192.9 points in my 6 pts per pass TD league. I'm sure the guy who waited two rounds for Rivers thought he was super smart after the draft.

Bad comparison? Ok.. The difference between Brady (3) and Ryan (8) was still 112.3, and Ryan finished eighth in this 12 team league.

For comparisons sake, Rice (1) scored 336.8 (143.5 fewer than Rodgers) in this particular .5 PPR. Those points differences are an enormous advantage. If you can't see that you're absolutely blind.

In a 12 team, 6 pts per pass TD league, most of the top ranked QBs are gone in the first 4-5 rounds at the latest. Where were guys like Michael Bush, Sproles, Lynch, and Reggie Bush going? All of those players were top 12 RBs in most leagues, and all were probably 9th round picks or later.

Other than Cam Newton, the likes of which will probably never happen again, there weren't ANY elite QBs (or even marginal QB1s) after the 9th round, and depending on how high someone was on Stafford there probably weren't any after the 7th.

What was the scoring difference between Rice and the 12th RB? 24th RB? I dont care how many more points Rodgers scored than Rice, you draft value based on dropoff withing a position, not between positions.Funny how you bring up a handful of RBs who had great years that you couldve gotten late and make it sound like they were easy to target. What are the chances of finding your RB2 or RB3 i Round 6+ and hitting on it? Id say much slimmer than waiting until that point to draft your starting QB, and a QB you know you can still count on - Rivers, Ryan, Roethlisberger, Vick, etc.

I'm saying they were easier to target than a starting caliber QB to match up with an elite QB. Those aren't the QBs I would have picked to back up a "QB you know you can still count on" argument.

Ryan threw 8 interceptions and 9 TD passes in his first 7 games, 4 of which came in one game. Pretty sure most teams that counted on him at the beginning of the year started their seasons slow, which you can't really afford in a 13 game regular fantasy season.

Big Ben missed the most important game of the fantasy year and threw 2 TD passes or less in 13 starts. It's tough to win a head to head league against the Aaron Rodgers owner when he threw for 3 TDs or more in 10 starts.

How many early pick RBs didn't perform? About half of them...

If your fantasy QB doesn't perform you're going to lose. It's as simple as that. I can find a Marshawn Lynch to match up with your Ray Rice much easier than I can find someone to match up with an elite "pass first for the TD" QB.

How many owners were trying to trade away Reggie Bush or Lynch? Roughly all of them probably at one point or another.

Was anyone trading away their stud QB? Nope.

I will certainly agree that the best way to field a dominant fantasy team is to draft the late QB (Stafford, Cam) who puts up the elite numbers. The miss rate with that strategy is just so much higher.

 

[Bayhawks]

I'm saying they were easier to target than a starting caliber QB to match up with an elite QB.

The top-5 QBs (based on FBG scoring) in 2011: Brees, Rodgers, Brady, Stafford, Newton. Brees' ADP was 3rd round, Rodgers' was 1st round, Brady's was 2nd round, Stafford's was 7th round, and Newton's was 13th round (based on fantasyfootballcalculator.com).The top 5 RBs in 2011: Rice, McCoy, MJD, Foster, Lynch. Rice's ADP-1st round, McCoy's-1st round, MJD's-2nd round, Foster's-1st round, and Lynch's-7th round.

It doesn't appear "easier" to find an elite RB later.

How many early pick RBs didn't perform? About half of them...

What's an "early pick?" Assuming "early pick" means 1st round, 1/2 the early QB picks didn't perform (Vick and Rodgers in 1st round). Assuming "early pick" means 1st 2 rounds, 1/3 early picks didn't perform (Vick, Rodgers, Brady). Assuming "early pick" means 1st 3 rounds, 2/5 early picks didn't perform (Vick, Rodgers, Brady, Rivers, Brees). But when you extend the "early pick" defintion to the 2nd and/or 3rd rounds, more of the RB picks DID PERFORM.

 

[Grahamburn]

I'm saying they were easier to target than a starting caliber QB to match up with an elite QB.

The top-5 QBs (based on FBG scoring) in 2011: Brees, Rodgers, Brady, Stafford, Newton. Brees' ADP was 3rd round, Rodgers' was 1st round, Brady's was 2nd round, Stafford's was 7th round, and Newton's was 13th round (based on fantasyfootballcalculator.com).The top 5 RBs in 2011: Rice, McCoy, MJD, Foster, Lynch. Rice's ADP-1st round, McCoy's-1st round, MJD's-2nd round, Foster's-1st round, and Lynch's-7th round.

It doesn't appear "easier" to find an elite RB later.

How many early pick RBs didn't perform? About half of them...

What's an "early pick?" Assuming "early pick" means 1st round, 1/2 the early QB picks didn't perform (Vick and Rodgers in 1st round). Assuming "early pick" means 1st 2 rounds, 1/3 early picks didn't perform (Vick, Rodgers, Brady). Assuming "early pick" means 1st 3 rounds, 2/5 early picks didn't perform (Vick, Rodgers, Brady, Rivers, Brees). But when you extend the "early pick" defintion to the 2nd and/or 3rd rounds, more of the RB picks DID PERFORM.

It's a simple premise. Before the season starts I can determine fairly easily which QBs will have good to great seasons. I can't do that with RBs.

Ask anyone who drafted Jamaal Charles, ADP, Chris Johnson, Rashard Mendenhall, Darren McFadden, Matt Forte, Peyton Hills, Felix Jones, LeGarrette Blount, Mark Ingram, or Jahvid Best if they were happy with their "EARLY" pick. All of those players probably went in the first 3 rounds of most 12 team fantasy drafts. That's a lot of land mines to navigate.

 

[David Yudkin]

Ask anyone who drafted Jamaal Charles, ADP, Chris Johnson, Rashard Mendenhall, Darren McFadden, Matt Forte, Peyton Hills, Felix Jones, LeGarrette Blount, Mark Ingram, or Jahvid Best if they were happy with their "EARLY" pick. All of those players probably went in the first 3 rounds of most 12 team fantasy drafts. That's a lot of land mines to navigate.

For startrers, more RBs are used for fantasy in most leagues compared to RBs, so of course there will be more backs taken (and thus easier to point out the ones that were less productive or injured). Jones and Ingraham had ADPs in the 4th and 5th rounds.But the same could be said about QBs too. Based on ADP, Vick was a first rounder and Rivers was a second. Manning was a 3rd rounder. Ryan, Schaub, and Roethlisberger all went in the 5th. The only other QBs taken in the first 5 rounds were Rodgers, Brady, Brees, and Romo. Rivers, Romo, and Ryan were all ok, but they certainly were not in the same scoring tier as the big guys last year. That's 6 guys who were relatively early picks that underperformed or got hurt.

As for the RBs, ADP, McFadden, Forte, and Best all ranked in the Top 10 in fantasy ppg. ADP, Forte, Johnson, and Mendenhall still all ranked in the Top 20 RBs. It's not like they were horrible.

The bottom line is it's not like any one position carries no risk on draft day. If you get guys that stay healthy, your odds of success go up dramatically. If the basis of going QB early is that they stay healthier than RBs, that's probably true. But it's not like all QBs are locked into playing 16 healthy games.

 

[Grahamburn]

I agree with all of that. Maybe I'm not articulating my point well enough.

I'll be drafting my QB early in 2012. There are four players in my mind that will be worthy of a pick in the first two rounds. There will be plenty of speculation about which QB after those four will be able to keep up with the touchdowns they produce. Cam, Vick, Romo, Ryan, Rivers, Eli, Roethlisberger, Schaub?

I'd rather roll the dice finding the RBs or WRs who will finish high. As you said, there are more of them.

 

[Sienna2012]

I agree with all of that. Maybe I'm not articulating my point well enough.I'll be drafting my QB early in 2012. There are four players in my mind that will be worthy of a pick in the first two rounds. There will be plenty of speculation about which QB after those four will be able to keep up with the touchdowns they produce. Cam, Vick, Romo, Ryan, Rivers, Eli, Roethlisberger, Schaub? I'd rather roll the dice finding the RBs or WRs who will finish high. As you said, there are more of them.

I get your point: ) Draft position is playing a key role for me though. Since I have the fourth overall pick I cannot see myself passing on Rice, McCoy or Foster. If I want a elite Qb, I am just hope I can grab one on the turn in Round 2. But there is a lot of time between now and the draft, so who knows I may be persuaded to do otherwise. I just dont know yet.

 

[Sienna2012]

I agree with all of that. Maybe I'm not articulating my point well enough.I'll be drafting my QB early in 2012. There are four players in my mind that will be worthy of a pick in the first two rounds. There will be plenty of speculation about which QB after those four will be able to keep up with the touchdowns they produce. Cam, Vick, Romo, Ryan, Rivers, Eli, Roethlisberger, Schaub? I'd rather roll the dice finding the RBs or WRs who will finish high. As you said, there are more of them.

I get your point: ) Draft position is playing a key role for me though. Since I have the fourth overall pick I cannot see myself passing on Rice, McCoy or Foster. If I want a elite Qb, I am just hope I can grab one on the turn in Round 2. But there is a lot of time between now and the draft, so who knows I may be persuaded to do otherwise. I just dont know yet.