Value of Rookie pick 1.01-1.04 (1 Viewer)

[WVU Alum]

Lets assess the value of each pick. I think after round 1 of the NFL draft, most people have the top 4 (everyone has a different order) Spiller, Mathews, Bryant, Best.

So the question now is, what is the relative value of each pick. I think the 1.04 became much more valuable than it was a week ago. I think the 1.01 soars as people will rate one of the three big boys higher now.

People will argue Spiller due to the anemic Bills O, so he has to get the lion's share of the load.

People will argue Bryant because he goes to a great pass O where he fits.

People will argue Mathews because he is in his ideal spot in SD

Some may argue Best... because he is an upgrade there as well.

There are cons to each one as well. Spiller is in Buffalo... the line sucks and he may get killed. Bryant is behind Austin. Mathews still splits with Sproles. Best has concussion concerns and landed in Dreaded Detroit.

So, what would you pay to get your guy. And where do you think you can get him in your league?

 

[Wilbur Wood]

Lets assess the value of each pick. I think after round 1 of the NFL draft, most people have the top 4 (everyone has a different order) Spiller, Mathews, Bryant, Best. So the question now is, what is the relative value of each pick. I think the 1.04 became much more valuable than it was a week ago. I think the 1.01 soars as people will rate one of the three big boys higher now. People will argue Spiller due to the anemic Bills O, so he has to get the lion's share of the load. People will argue Bryant because he goes to a great pass O where he fits. People will argue Mathews because he is in his ideal spot in SD Some may argue Best... because he is an upgrade there as well.There are cons to each one as well. Spiller is in Buffalo... the line sucks and he may get killed. Bryant is behind Austin. Mathews still splits with Sproles. Best has concussion concerns and landed in Dreaded Detroit.So, what would you pay to get your guy. And where do you think you can get him in your league?

I actually see a fairly significant drop after the 2 two picks (Dez and Matthews). Not wild about the situatons that either Spiller or Best find themselves in, both may be your D-Sproles type of specialty back

 

[Todem]

In PPR Dez Bryant long term may be the gem of this draft. IMO he has STUD written all over him.

Spiller is a big time NFL playmaker. Lynch will be shipped out ASAP today at the earliest. Spiller can be a PPR beast as well. What he can do with 15 touches is more than what plodding backs can do with 30. He can score from anywhere on the field plus is a superb return guy.

Matthews is the bell cow in SD...Sproles? 3rd down back at best.

Best looks undersized to me. I know he is fast and can make big plays...but I hate drafting Lions. I am not so sure he is a shoe in at 1.4 just yet. Other backs on the board that can fall into good siuations.

Bryant is the best blue chipper on the board IMO.

 

[dmac37]

With Mathews and Bryant landing in top 5 offenses I think the value of 1.1 & 1.2 goes way up. Not very often a couple of the top rated RB's and WR's end up in situations this good.

IMO Mathews has more immediate value and Bryant has more long term dynasty value.

With Best landing in a better situation than Spiller, it will be interesting between the two for 1.3 & 1.4.

 

[Winning IS Everything]

In PPR Dez Bryant long term may be the gem of this draft. IMO he has STUD written all over him.

Spiller is a big time NFL playmaker. Lynch will be shipped out ASAP today at the earliest. Spiller can be a PPR beast as well. What he can do with 15 touches is more than what plodding backs can do with 30. He can score from anywhere on the field plus is a superb return guy.

Matthews is the bell cow in SD...Sproles? 3rd down back at best.

Best looks undersized to me. I know he is fast and can make big plays...but I hate drafting Lions. I am not so sure he is a shoe in at 1.4 just yet. Other backs on the board that can fall into good siuations.

Bryant is the best blue chipper omn the board IMO.

I am very curious to see where Gerhart, Hardesty and Dwyer end up before I try to peg the 1.3 and 1.4 spots.

 

[Max Power]

I agree the 1.04 did gain some value, but I dont think the 1.01 soars. I like Mathews more than the others, but I wouldn't give up too much to move up from the 1.02-1.04 range to get to 1.01.

Personally I think Mathews is solid at 1.01. SD moved up to get him because he was their guy. He will get a solid amount of carries on a weekly basis, should be the goal line back, and the SD offense is still highpowered.

you can argue Bryant, Spiller, and best between 2 and 4. I'd probably grab Bryant at #2, Best at #3 and Spiller at #4, but wouldn't blame anyone for shifting up that order.

I even think 1.05 could hold some serious value as well if Houston takes a "lead back" today.

 

[KellysHeroes]

In PPR Dez Bryant long term may be the gem of this draft. IMO he has STUD written all over him.

Spiller is a big time NFL playmaker. Lynch will be shipped out ASAP today at the earliest. Spiller can be a PPR beast as well. What he can do with 15 touches is more than what plodding backs can do with 30. He can score from anywhere on the field plus is a superb return guy.

Matthews is the bell cow in SD...Sproles? 3rd down back at best.

Best looks undersized to me. I know he is fast and can make big plays...but I hate drafting Lions. I am not so sure he is a shoe in at 1.4 just yet. Other backs on the board that can fall into good siuations.

Bryant is the best blue chipper omn the board IMO.

I am very curious to see where Gerhart, Hardesty and Dwyer end up before I try to peg the 1.3 and 1.4 spots.

I agree, 1.03 may still be on the board.Spiller will not get many touches this yr so if you draft him hes a hold

 

[Happy Ragnarok]

Mathews is a slam dunk 1.01 after that draft. He walks into camp, day 1, as a projected 1200+, 8+ producer.

There's no other rook I'm crazy about. Bryant's in a good position to help that offense take another step forward, but there's no telling how the totem pole is going to sort out there over the coming years. I expect very modest numbers this year, and big ?'s heading forward.

 

[bigmiiiiike]

With Mathews and Bryant landing in top 5 offenses I think the value of 1.1 & 1.2 goes way up. Not very often a couple of the top rated RB's and WR's end up in situations this good.IMO Mathews has more immediate value and Bryant has more long term dynasty value.With Best landing in a better situation than Spiller, it will be interesting between the two for 1.3 & 1.4.

I like how people are acting like Mathews doesn't have long term dynasty value. He is a rookie RB, 22 years old. He plays in a great offense with a young QB and other young pieces, especially at WR. I'm not really saying that he should or shouldn't be taken at 1.01 ahead of Dez, only that we shouldn't discount his long term stud status. If you think he's a stud, he should be very good for the next 6-7 seasons. If you think Dez is a stud, he should be very good for 8-9 seasons, with the window of studliness starting in 1-3 seasons.

 

[bigmiiiiike]

IMO this is a RARE opportunity at the top of the rookie draft where you can draft for need without feeling like you're missing out on a better talent at another position. If you need a WR, take Dez, if you need an RB take Mathews.

 

[Todem]

With Mathews and Bryant landing in top 5 offenses I think the value of 1.1 & 1.2 goes way up. Not very often a couple of the top rated RB's and WR's end up in situations this good.IMO Mathews has more immediate value and Bryant has more long term dynasty value.With Best landing in a better situation than Spiller, it will be interesting between the two for 1.3 & 1.4.

I like how people are acting like Mathews doesn't have long term dynasty value. He is a rookie RB, 22 years old. He plays in a great offense with a young QB and other young pieces, especially at WR. I'm not really saying that he should or shouldn't be taken at 1.01 ahead of Dez, only that we shouldn't discount his long term stud status. If you think he's a stud, he should be very good for the next 6-7 seasons. If you think Dez is a stud, he should be very good for 8-9 seasons, with the window of studliness starting in 1-3 seasons.

I think Matthews has great dynasty value and will probably go 1.1 in a ton of leagues......but I also think Dez Bryant may be the better overall blue chip talent because WR's in PPR that are studs....IMO have more long term value. But I think you have your 1.1 and 1.2 pretty clear here. It depends on your teams needs.

 

[dmac37]

With Mathews and Bryant landing in top 5 offenses I think the value of 1.1 & 1.2 goes way up. Not very often a couple of the top rated RB's and WR's end up in situations this good.IMO Mathews has more immediate value and Bryant has more long term dynasty value.With Best landing in a better situation than Spiller, it will be interesting between the two for 1.3 & 1.4.

I like how people are acting like Mathews doesn't have long term dynasty value. He is a rookie RB, 22 years old. He plays in a great offense with a young QB and other young pieces, especially at WR. I'm not really saying that he should or shouldn't be taken at 1.01 ahead of Dez, only that we shouldn't discount his long term stud status. If you think he's a stud, he should be very good for the next 6-7 seasons. If you think Dez is a stud, he should be very good for 8-9 seasons, with the window of studliness starting in 1-3 seasons.

Two reasons:A) Bryant was the most talented skill player at any position going into the draft but RB's contribute sooner than WR'sB) Long term the value of top WR's usually outlive the value of top RB's

 

[WVU Alum]

If Hardesty or Gerhart wind up in Houston, Seattle, or even Cleveland I can see a big cluster from 1.3 to 1.6

 

[Donsmith753]

With Mathews and Bryant landing in top 5 offenses I think the value of 1.1 & 1.2 goes way up. Not very often a couple of the top rated RB's and WR's end up in situations this good.

IMO Mathews has more immediate value and Bryant has more long term dynasty value.

With Best landing in a better situation than Spiller, it will be interesting between the two for 1.3 & 1.4.

I like how people are acting like Mathews doesn't have long term dynasty value. He is a rookie RB, 22 years old. He plays in a great offense with a young QB and other young pieces, especially at WR. I'm not really saying that he should or shouldn't be taken at 1.01 ahead of Dez, only that we shouldn't discount his long term stud status. If you think he's a stud, he should be very good for the next 6-7 seasons. If you think Dez is a stud, he should be very good for 8-9 seasons, with the window of studliness starting in 1-3 seasons.

Two reasons:A) Bryant was the most talented skill player at any position going into the draft but RB's contribute sooner than WR's

B) Long term the value of top WR's usually outlive the value of top RB's

So if you're rebuilding take Dez and then go get Ingram next year.

 

[WVU Alum]

With Mathews and Bryant landing in top 5 offenses I think the value of 1.1 & 1.2 goes way up. Not very often a couple of the top rated RB's and WR's end up in situations this good.

IMO Mathews has more immediate value and Bryant has more long term dynasty value.

With Best landing in a better situation than Spiller, it will be interesting between the two for 1.3 & 1.4.

I like how people are acting like Mathews doesn't have long term dynasty value. He is a rookie RB, 22 years old. He plays in a great offense with a young QB and other young pieces, especially at WR. I'm not really saying that he should or shouldn't be taken at 1.01 ahead of Dez, only that we shouldn't discount his long term stud status. If you think he's a stud, he should be very good for the next 6-7 seasons. If you think Dez is a stud, he should be very good for 8-9 seasons, with the window of studliness starting in 1-3 seasons.

Two reasons:A) Bryant was the most talented skill player at any position going into the draft but RB's contribute sooner than WR's

B) Long term the value of top WR's usually outlive the value of top RB's

So if you're rebuilding take Dez and then go get Ingram next year.

I take a different approach to a rebuild. I don't look at next year's draft. Too many variables. I take the best talent I can in the best situation with the quickest pay-off. This year at 1.01 that looks like Matthews.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

seems to me that D.Thomas will have little competition to get a starting gig. I think you have to consider him after Mathews/Dez in PPR

 

[jeter23]

The way I see it, the top 5 picks all went up in value last night.

1.01/1.02- pre-draft these picks were Dez and Spiller (elite talents), now Dez ended up in a great offense with a top 5 QB, add in Matthews as the unquestioned starter in another great offense and the value of these picks increases, no matter who you want.

1.03- this one was Matthews predraft and now it gains value as you either get a guy in a great situation, or one of those 2 elite talents.

1.04- this was probably Best predraft and still is, but now we know he is in line to be the starter

1.05- Dwyer predraft and could still be him or one of the other RBs, depending where they land, if not, Thomas looks like a safe pick as he assumes the Marhsall role in Denver.

1.06- I think this pick is almost assured of gaining value as well- you either get Thomas or a RB that was not expected to be there.

 

[Donsmith753]

With Mathews and Bryant landing in top 5 offenses I think the value of 1.1 & 1.2 goes way up. Not very often a couple of the top rated RB's and WR's end up in situations this good.

IMO Mathews has more immediate value and Bryant has more long term dynasty value.

With Best landing in a better situation than Spiller, it will be interesting between the two for 1.3 & 1.4.

I like how people are acting like Mathews doesn't have long term dynasty value. He is a rookie RB, 22 years old. He plays in a great offense with a young QB and other young pieces, especially at WR. I'm not really saying that he should or shouldn't be taken at 1.01 ahead of Dez, only that we shouldn't discount his long term stud status. If you think he's a stud, he should be very good for the next 6-7 seasons. If you think Dez is a stud, he should be very good for 8-9 seasons, with the window of studliness starting in 1-3 seasons.

Two reasons:A) Bryant was the most talented skill player at any position going into the draft but RB's contribute sooner than WR's

B) Long term the value of top WR's usually outlive the value of top RB's

So if you're rebuilding take Dez and then go get Ingram next year.

I take a different approach to a rebuild. I don't look at next year's draft. Too many variables. I take the best talent I can in the best situation with the quickest pay-off. This year at 1.01 that looks like Matthews.

Fair enough and I'm seriously considering taking Matthews aswell but it never hurts to see who might be around next year.

 

[PranksterJD]

The way I see it, the top 5 picks all went up in value last night.1.01/1.02- pre-draft these picks were Dez and Spiller (elite talents), now Dez ended up in a great offense with a top 5 QB, add in Matthews as the unquestioned starter in another great offense and the value of these picks increases, no matter who you want.1.03- this one was Matthews predraft and now it gains value as you either get a guy in a great situation, or one of those 2 elite talents.1.04- this was probably Best predraft and still is, but now we know he is in line to be the starter1.05- Dwyer predraft and could still be him or one of the other RBs, depending where they land, if not, Thomas looks like a safe pick as he assumes the Marhsall role in Denver.1.06- I think this pick is almost assured of gaining value as well- you either get Thomas or a RB that was not expected to be there.

Agreed for the most part, but I think the 1.01 went down, at least in non-PPR leagues. Pre-draft people holding or looking for that pick had the hope that it would be an elite talent in an elite situation ( e.g. Spiller to Seattle, Houston, etc. ). Now that that's not the case, the 1.01 has fallen back to the pack with the 1.02 and 1.03.In short... overall gain for the top 6-7 picks, small downgrade for first overall.

 

[Ack88]

As the 1.4 owner, last night's outcomes have made me very happy. Pre-draft I was offering the 1.1 and 1.2 owners a flop plus my 2011 #1 to move into the top two. Now, those offers are off the table and I'd even go down a slot or two, pick up an extra pick and get a player that I'd be very happy with. (sigh of relief!)

 

[Yitbos69]

the only real change for me is you can go Dez or Matthews with 1.01 and Thomas can be taken at 1.05 if your need is WR

 

[WVU Alum]

Interesting thought I just had. I own the 1.1 in one league, the 1.2 in another. In still other leagues I am at the bottom 4 picks in round 1.

In leagues 1 & two, I am tempted to hold the pick as I don't think I can get the value for the pick that I think it deserves. On the other hand, I can't see myself investing much to move into the top 4 in the leagues where I hold 1.9 or greater.

 

[ebaughn]

I have the 1.03 and couldn't be happier.. I need RB help bad and I think Dez going to Dallas(non-ppr) helps him for sure go 1.1 or 1.2 since this dynasty league everone lives in Dallas or Houston and tend to over value those local players. I can wait untill August when we draft and if Dez falls to me then I could probably trade him for a King's Ransom. Also, Best might end up the best RB in the draft and love him on that Turf in Detroit and he should have a lot of long runs & catches.

 

[Kleck]

In PPR leagues I was already pretty high on the top 4 picks, and after day one I still am. I prefer Mathews the most, and I'd be pretty happy landing Best, Spiller or Dez at #4. I see those three as being pretty interchangeable based on personal preference.

Still a lot of players to be drafted, but these four will remain my top 4 in PPR leagues.

 

[BigJim®]

No surprise the Charges are invested into Matthews given the bounty they gave to get him, and their glowing comments after the draft explaining why they gave the bounty, which I think really helps the perception of his value. I'd be surprised if Matthews isn't going 1.1 in 75% of rookie drafts by June. I'd say the value of 1.1 is therefore much higher than predraft.

 

[WVU Alum]

Ben Tate creeps into the top 6 as a projected starter?

 

[The Captain]

Ben Tate creeps into the top 6 as a projected starter?

He or Hardesty. I think Hardesty is the better talent, but Houston is a bit better situation.