David Dodds
Administrator
2008 Value Plays
We do this now and will revisit this in August when Average Draft Positions solidify.
We do this now and will revisit this in August when Average Draft Positions solidify.
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Value Plays (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter David Dodds
- Start date
LHUCKS
Footballguy
First comment...surprised that Carson Palmer is "overvalued" as the #5 QB. Ocho isn't a concern and Chris Henry was never the centerpiece of that offense. Palmer is the type of QB that can create WRs...he doesn't need T.O. to put up numbers.
Not satisfied with the explanations given.
Not satisfied with the explanations given.
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This is always an interesting feature for me. It is sometimes revealing to see who the most listed folks are in the various categories. It is also humorous as you review the staff members that disagree on certain players that are listed by multiple reviewers on both sides of the coin.
FantasyTrader
Footballguy
Great article - I always love the layout of this one - by attaching staff names to comments.
Reggie Williams and Jerry Porter both got some overvalued dings. I don't think BOTH will be true. If Garrard REALLY is a top 10 QB this year, basic math would dictate some Jags WR should slip into the top 30. MJD won't steal that many rec. coming out of the backfield.
Reggie Williams and Jerry Porter both got some overvalued dings. I don't think BOTH will be true. If Garrard REALLY is a top 10 QB this year, basic math would dictate some Jags WR should slip into the top 30. MJD won't steal that many rec. coming out of the backfield.
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Mike Walker, Dennis Northcutt, and Marcedes Lewis might have something to say about that. The Jacksonville passing offense does not have a true #1, and Jerry Porter is not the kind of do everything WR that compels a QB to force the ball to him. The Jags completed 288 passes last year, and no one caught more than 50 of them. I wouldn't bet on anyone catching more than 60 at the most this year. If anyone is going to truly break out as a pass catcher for the Jags this year, I would say the guy with the best chance is Marcedes Lewis - entering his third season, and he's done everything the Jags could ask as both as receiver and a blocker.ETA: it's not a given Garrard will be a top 10 QB either.
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mcintyre1
Footballguy
Think you guys were railing on Derek Anderson a bit too much. Yeah, he faded during the end of the year, but would you have the same things to say about a rookie QB turning in Anderson's effort for his first NFL season? That's almost the case for Anderson. He's still a very young guy. Then again, I only play Dynasty leagues, so obviously our rankings would differ.
Captain Hook
Footballguy
If he was your FF quarterback last year, you would definitely understand and agree with the Overvalued tag - just too many games where he was terribleLHUCKS said:
AnonymousBob
Footballguy
It's my understanding their offensive line is still decimated.LHUCKS said:
Captain Hook
Footballguy
Agree with most of the undervalued, but apparently there are some short memories on Warner or high hopes on Leinart:
Two comments - one missing the point and one who gets it:
Marc Levin - At some point Matt Leinart has to bring it all together. This is the year. He has a strong enough receiving crew and solid enough run support that success is virtually assured if he stays healthy. Old man Kurt Warner was the #10 fantasy QB in 2007. A healthy Leinart should be able to come close to that kind of finish. At the very least, he should finish much better than the QB21 -- probably closer to QB15/16 Jake Delhomme and Matt Schaub than QB20 Jason Campbell. If your league-mates actually allow Matt Leinart to fall to his 11th round ADP, count yourself lucky and take him.
Levin doesn't seem to believe that Warner will AGAIN be on the field for the Cardinals in 2008 - we just don't know how much
Bob Magaw - The stealth play is to draft Kurt Warner later, locking up the Cards QB position which was surpassed in passing TDs by only NE, DAL and PIT in 2007. Fitzgerald and Boldin comprise the most athletic and talented young WR duo in the NFL. Russ Grimm is coaching the OL up. Capturing the Leinart/Warner two-headed monster could be similar to stealing Brady, Manning or Romo in the mid-rounds. Warner had 21 TDs in the last eight games. Nice handcuff.
Magaw gets the prize for recommending the pair (although by definition that should NOT make Leinart undervalued)
Two comments - one missing the point and one who gets it:
Marc Levin - At some point Matt Leinart has to bring it all together. This is the year. He has a strong enough receiving crew and solid enough run support that success is virtually assured if he stays healthy. Old man Kurt Warner was the #10 fantasy QB in 2007. A healthy Leinart should be able to come close to that kind of finish. At the very least, he should finish much better than the QB21 -- probably closer to QB15/16 Jake Delhomme and Matt Schaub than QB20 Jason Campbell. If your league-mates actually allow Matt Leinart to fall to his 11th round ADP, count yourself lucky and take him.
Levin doesn't seem to believe that Warner will AGAIN be on the field for the Cardinals in 2008 - we just don't know how much
Bob Magaw - The stealth play is to draft Kurt Warner later, locking up the Cards QB position which was surpassed in passing TDs by only NE, DAL and PIT in 2007. Fitzgerald and Boldin comprise the most athletic and talented young WR duo in the NFL. Russ Grimm is coaching the OL up. Capturing the Leinart/Warner two-headed monster could be similar to stealing Brady, Manning or Romo in the mid-rounds. Warner had 21 TDs in the last eight games. Nice handcuff.
Magaw gets the prize for recommending the pair (although by definition that should NOT make Leinart undervalued)
Jason Wood
Zoo York
Jon Stewart and Earnest Graham jump out at me; we're pretty much a house divided on those two backs.
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On the flip side, that defense is terrible, and they will be behind a lot. I can see a lot of stats in the 4th quarter. We should have a better idea of the OL status come August. If it is still bad, I can see him slipping a bit further down the #5.
AnonymousBob
Footballguy
The Bengals had a terrible defense last year and Palmer still stunk. Not sure what's changed.
AnonymousBob
Footballguy
Interesting vote for Vince Young. Why should his touchdown ration increase this season? They've added Crumpler and...?
AnonymousBob
Footballguy
If McNabb actually goes as the #8 qb I agree he's overrated. But in some mocks I've done thus far, he's been going in the teens. He won't last the whole season but the games he's in makes him a good deal.
FantasyTrader
Footballguy
Why should they increase? He threw 9 last year. I don't think seeing double-digit TD's from ANY starting NFL QB is going out on much of a limb. Adding Crump gets you 4-5 right there.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
chris johnson will catch alot of passes
Carter_Can_Fly
Footballguy
First off wonderful write up very detailed and very much appreciated.
One thing that jumps out at me from quickly, I mean quickly skimming the lists is.......
Not one FBG thinks that Cotchery with back to back 82 reception years as a 24/25 year old is undervalued?
One thing that jumps out at me from quickly, I mean quickly skimming the lists is.......
Not one FBG thinks that Cotchery with back to back 82 reception years as a 24/25 year old is undervalued?
David Yudkin
Footballguy
Cotchery had an ADP of WR 28 at the time we were assigned the article to write. He's ranked 23rd and 25th the past two seasons. Not sure that he's a huge value play there.
Carter_Can_Fly
Footballguy
Thanks Yuds, I understand. I guess I am a little higher on him than most. I mean I see him as a safe WR 2 with potential top 15 ability.
First of all, this may be my favorite article that FootballyGuys puts out pre-training camp. One thing I always do is go back to the previous year's article and see who nailed a few, and who stuck their foot in their mouth. 
Both are inevitable in June. Here are a couple of my favorites from the 2007 article
Hits:
Chris Smith - I believe that Tom Brady will be the #1 fantasy quarterback this season. With the addition of three very good receivers, Brady will be able to elevate his numbers to an elite level in 2007.
Wimer - In order to become an every-down back, Benson needs to become a more proficient receiver -- another question mark hovering around Benson heading into the 2007 season. At an ADP of #17 RB selected, I think Benson is a bad bargain.
Wood - (on Reggie Bush) Unless someone knows something about McAllister that I don't, I see no reason why he's not in line for another 250-280 touches which means Bush will again be relegated to a similar amount. Under those circumstances, I can't envision Bush delivering top-10 value without also taking away the short yardage touches from Deuce. Does anyone really want to argue for that?
Will Grant - It's hard to imagine Greg Jennings not improving on his performance from last season. Brett Favre is back for one more season, and the Packers still only have Donald Driver and Jennings as their primary pass receivers. Koren Robinson and Robert Ferguson don't scare anyone. Jennings is the #2 guy in Green Bay, and should easily justify a 9th round pick.
Bloom - Owens is as worthy of being a second round pick and center of your WR corps as any WR in the league. He's a solid value at WR7 in the early third.
Misses:
Wimer - It would be no surprise to see Romo come out of the gates cold during 2007, which will limit his fantasy upside. I think he'll significantly under-perform his mid-June ADP as the 9th QB drafted. I currently have him at #18 on my QB board.
Will Grant - OK, now it's just getting silly. 1200 yards and 7 TDs? That's what people are expecting out of Randy Moss this season? 1200 yards and 7 TDs? That's just about where a WR should finish if you're going to spend a high 4th round pick on him. In New England, it's team first, players second. The Patriots have had a guy post 1200 yards and 7 TDS since 2001. I just don't see them radically altering their offensive strategy for a guy who has proven himself to give less than 100% unless he's the center of the universe. I'm sorry. I know I'm bucking a serious trend here but spending a 4th rounder on Randy Moss is just asking to get burned.
Hicks - The 10th round is hardly going to kill your draft, but for your WR3 or WR4 you want someone with a little more upside than Kevin Curtis.
Mike Brown - This suggests to me that the Bears, a legitimate title contender, feel very secure with Benson as "their guy" and expect him to carry an extremely heavy workload. Combining a stellar defensive team with a good offensive line and a top talent at running back, and you've got all the makings of a Pro Bowl caliber season.
Don't get me wrong, this is not an "I told you so" post and not intended to offend any of the contributors to the article. I just enjoy looking back and seeing who faired (or failed) best at their predictions.
Both are inevitable in June. Here are a couple of my favorites from the 2007 articleHits:
Chris Smith - I believe that Tom Brady will be the #1 fantasy quarterback this season. With the addition of three very good receivers, Brady will be able to elevate his numbers to an elite level in 2007.
Wimer - In order to become an every-down back, Benson needs to become a more proficient receiver -- another question mark hovering around Benson heading into the 2007 season. At an ADP of #17 RB selected, I think Benson is a bad bargain.
Wood - (on Reggie Bush) Unless someone knows something about McAllister that I don't, I see no reason why he's not in line for another 250-280 touches which means Bush will again be relegated to a similar amount. Under those circumstances, I can't envision Bush delivering top-10 value without also taking away the short yardage touches from Deuce. Does anyone really want to argue for that?
Will Grant - It's hard to imagine Greg Jennings not improving on his performance from last season. Brett Favre is back for one more season, and the Packers still only have Donald Driver and Jennings as their primary pass receivers. Koren Robinson and Robert Ferguson don't scare anyone. Jennings is the #2 guy in Green Bay, and should easily justify a 9th round pick.
Bloom - Owens is as worthy of being a second round pick and center of your WR corps as any WR in the league. He's a solid value at WR7 in the early third.
Misses:
Wimer - It would be no surprise to see Romo come out of the gates cold during 2007, which will limit his fantasy upside. I think he'll significantly under-perform his mid-June ADP as the 9th QB drafted. I currently have him at #18 on my QB board.
Will Grant - OK, now it's just getting silly. 1200 yards and 7 TDs? That's what people are expecting out of Randy Moss this season? 1200 yards and 7 TDs? That's just about where a WR should finish if you're going to spend a high 4th round pick on him. In New England, it's team first, players second. The Patriots have had a guy post 1200 yards and 7 TDS since 2001. I just don't see them radically altering their offensive strategy for a guy who has proven himself to give less than 100% unless he's the center of the universe. I'm sorry. I know I'm bucking a serious trend here but spending a 4th rounder on Randy Moss is just asking to get burned.
Hicks - The 10th round is hardly going to kill your draft, but for your WR3 or WR4 you want someone with a little more upside than Kevin Curtis.
Mike Brown - This suggests to me that the Bears, a legitimate title contender, feel very secure with Benson as "their guy" and expect him to carry an extremely heavy workload. Combining a stellar defensive team with a good offensive line and a top talent at running back, and you've got all the makings of a Pro Bowl caliber season.
Don't get me wrong, this is not an "I told you so" post and not intended to offend any of the contributors to the article. I just enjoy looking back and seeing who faired (or failed) best at their predictions.
Shaping up to be a great year to go QBBC (although if you hit it right, every year is). In a 12 team league, you may have your choice of Garrard, Bulger and or Delhomme if you are the last team to take a QB...not too shabby.
First of all, this may be my favorite article that FootballyGuys puts out pre-training camp. One thing I always do is go back to the previous year's article and see who nailed a few, and who stuck their foot in their mouth.
Hits:
Chris Smith - I believe that Tom Brady will be the #1 fantasy quarterback this season. With the addition of three very good receivers, Brady will be able to elevate his numbers to an elite level in 2007.
Wimer - In order to become an every-down back, Benson needs to become a more proficient receiver -- another question mark hovering around Benson heading into the 2007 season. At an ADP of #17 RB selected, I think Benson is a bad bargain.
Wood - (on Reggie Bush) Unless someone knows something about McAllister that I don't, I see no reason why he's not in line for another 250-280 touches which means Bush will again be relegated to a similar amount. Under those circumstances, I can't envision Bush delivering top-10 value without also taking away the short yardage touches from Deuce. Does anyone really want to argue for that?
Will Grant - It's hard to imagine Greg Jennings not improving on his performance from last season. Brett Favre is back for one more season, and the Packers still only have Donald Driver and Jennings as their primary pass receivers. Koren Robinson and Robert Ferguson don't scare anyone. Jennings is the #2 guy in Green Bay, and should easily justify a 9th round pick.
Bloom - Owens is as worthy of being a second round pick and center of your WR corps as any WR in the league. He's a solid value at WR7 in the early third.
Misses:
Wimer - It would be no surprise to see Romo come out of the gates cold during 2007, which will limit his fantasy upside. I think he'll significantly under-perform his mid-June ADP as the 9th QB drafted. I currently have him at #18 on my QB board.
Will Grant - OK, now it's just getting silly. 1200 yards and 7 TDs? That's what people are expecting out of Randy Moss this season? 1200 yards and 7 TDs? That's just about where a WR should finish if you're going to spend a high 4th round pick on him. In New England, it's team first, players second. The Patriots have had a guy post 1200 yards and 7 TDS since 2001. I just don't see them radically altering their offensive strategy for a guy who has proven himself to give less than 100% unless he's the center of the universe. I'm sorry. I know I'm bucking a serious trend here but spending a 4th rounder on Randy Moss is just asking to get burned.
Hicks - The 10th round is hardly going to kill your draft, but for your WR3 or WR4 you want someone with a little more upside than Kevin Curtis.
Mike Brown - This suggests to me that the Bears, a legitimate title contender, feel very secure with Benson as "their guy" and expect him to carry an extremely heavy workload. Combining a stellar defensive team with a good offensive line and a top talent at running back, and you've got all the makings of a Pro Bowl caliber season.
Don't get me wrong, this is not an "I told you so" post and not intended to offend any of the contributors to the article. I just enjoy looking back and seeing who faired (or failed) best at their predictions.
Thanks for looking back and sharing. Let's be honest, if we did our own undervalued/overvalued lists, we'd all have some in the hits and some in the misses. I admit to staying far away from Owens and Moss.I completely agree. I thought it was a good idea to have Julius Jones in several of my leaguesThanks for looking back and sharing. Let's be honest, if we did our own undervalued/overvalued lists, we'd all have some in the hits and some in the misses. I admit to staying far away from Owens and Moss.
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