With the Pats Favorite everyone and their mother seems to be betting NYG. On Paper the Giants should win this easily especially w/o Gronk yet the Pats still a 3 point fav. Vegas is setting this so everyone bets NYG - on ocasion Vegas loses but not often they must know something. I will wait till the line goes down right before gametime to about 1 to 1 1/2 and put 500 on NE based on this alone. NE is banged up and Giants are on fire -- just going with Vegas this weekend and betting NE when everyone is throwing thousands on NYG
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Vegas always wins (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter The Moz
- Start date
Ron_Mexico
I Love Doggies
Plus there is sick money on NYG SB futures on top of it.
thatguy
Footballguy
Do you happen to have the data on how much money has been laid on each side? Or are you basing your "everyone and their mother seems to be betting on the Giants" claim on a small sample size of friends/family/colleagues/footballguys who are all drooling over the Giants +3/3.5?
Kai's Hero
Footballguy
Anyone who thinks Gronk isn't playing is crazy. He'll start.
BRONG
FOR A LIMITED TIME ONLY
OMG so SICK the money.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Follow the sick money to get healthy?
AmosMoses
Footballguy
the situations about the money being so sick?
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Vegas is already up a ton. They dont care
I listened to an interview of one of the linesmakers.Based on what he said, the line won't move much. Some of the casinos already moved the line from 3 to 2.5 and now have moved it back because professional money came in an bet the Pats big at -2.5 (at -2.5 the professional money on NE exceeded the public money on NYG significanty. You are right that more money is coming in on the NYG and Vegas wound prefer to have more balance, but with the smart money hitting NE at -2.5 they have to balance the risk associated with the game ending up NE winning by 3, where all of the -3/+3 bets push and all the smart money NE -2.5 wins.
Tanner9919
Footballguy
I dunno..did ya bet Pitt v. Denver when the Steelers were laying 9 pts and lost outright???did ya bet GB v. NYG???did ya bet SF v. NYG???what about Ravens, you bet them last week? they were getting,what, 7 pts?Giants were 14 pt dogs in SB 25, won outright.St Louis was giving 14 pts to NE and lost outright.Underdog has covered pt spread in 7 of past 10 Superbowls.
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David Yudkin
Footballguy
Other than Gronkowski, who is banged up on NE? Gronkowski is going to play . . . this is getting way overhyped.I'm not saying the Pats are going to win . . . but why are the Giants the hot team while the Pats are reeling?The Pats have won 10 in a row by an average score of 36-19. Yes, the Giants beat them by 4 points earlier in the season, but it's unlikely NE will turn the ball over 4 times again. And the Giants gave up almost 450 yards in that game.As I see it, the Giants beating the Falcons and the Pats beating the Broncos is a push. The Giants beating the 49ers and the Pats beating the Ravens is also a push. So the big difference of note is the Giants beat the Packers (while the Pats don't have a big signature win on par with that.)IMO, the Pats should be slight favorites and the line reflected that.
Touchdown There
Footballguy
Correct me if I am wrong, but sports betting is not against the house. The line is set where Vegas is trying to collect 50% of the wagers on the Giants and 50% on the Patriots. They are only interested in collecting the vig. The house is essentially charging a service fee, unlike other casino games where you are directly betting against the house.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vigorish#Example
I like the Giants at +3...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vigorish#Example
I like the Giants at +3...
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RUSF18
Footballguy
It's an overly simplistic explanation. Sportsbooks take positions on games frequently, or allow heavy action on one side knowing that they could farm out some of those wagers to other books.
If by smart money you mean other casinos then I'd agree. At -2.5, a smart casino will take the bets they booked at -3 and push them onto the other casino at -2.5 thus minimizing their risk. That's why I think the line will now stay at -3 with the payouts fluctuating between -110 and +105 per $100.
When everyone seems to be on one side and the line doesn't seem to move (or better moves in the other direction) it usually is an indication that "sharp" money is on the other side and it tends to be a good move to bet with the sharps. However, I don't think this applies in this case because, although the line hasn't moved, it looks like the juice is moving. I've seen that you need to lay 125 instead of the usual 110 to get NYG +3, also the NYG ML has decreased as well. This seems to indicate that the books are more more concerned that they don't know where the sharp money is going yet and don't want to risk opening up a middle unneccesarily. I guess, in short I'm trying to say that I don't think you can really read into anything yet.
Is this a serious question?
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
Frequently, but never on the Super Bowl. That's by far the biggest bet each year and a bad SB can bust a year.
Ron_Mexico
I Love Doggies
(A snippet of a recent article from the Associated Press.)USA Today :
Jan 25, 2012
Las Vegas fearing a Giants win in Super Bowl XLVI
By Ellen J. Horrow, USA TODAY
The New York Giants are currently raising the blood pressure in Las Vegas, more than a week and a half ahead of Super Bowl XLVI.
A victory by the Giants over the New England Patriots could cost some Vegas sports books a pretty penny as futures betting comes back to haunt them. A number of sports books in Nevada took significant bets on the Giants to win the Super Bowl at long odds earlier this season — some as high as 80 to 1 — putting some in a very precarious position if the Giants should knock off the Patriots in the Super Bowl again.
It is a volume game (i.e. how many bets we can get), versus anything else.Also, to think that "Vegas" knows something we do not, is just silly. Vegas is not one guy...it is many linesmakers, individuals with much more to gain by opening their mouths about some great insight than being good soldiers. Int his day of social media, etc., we would know something (i.e. who is injured worse than advertised) as quickly as Joey Bag of Donuts could tell us.
AmosMoses
Footballguy
Of ####### course it is.
butcher boy
Footballguy
I can't believe all the money being put on the Giants. They're a 9-7 team when it comes down to it. They are on a hot streak, but guess what, so is New England. Hot streaks end all the time, and when you look at these teams, I'll take the Belichick coached team any day. Like what was said earlier, New England won't turn the ball over 4 times, and that's what the Giants needed to win by 4 last time. Too much hype is being placed on their last meeting as well as the Gronk injury.
harryhood
Footballguy
....and you would have lost your shirt in 2007 as well. Throw the coaches out of the window for this one. These are both very well coached teams. Bottom line is that this game is going to come down to one play here or there, as well as which defense is going to get to Eli/Brady. I have no problems with the line being -3 right now. The Patriots were by far the better(and more consistent) team this season, and their record, and statistics say as much. Fortunately for us Giants fans, that means nothing come 6:30 Sunday. It's going to take our A game to win another title, but I have some real confidence in the way this young Giants team is playing. Can't wait for what should be another great game between these two teams.HFS .... that post was one giant cliche'. Too much listening to Coughlin over the last month!
Giants turned the ball over twice in that game too. Once on a punt that lead to a NE fg, and another was an INT in the endzone at 10-3. NE took the ball then a tied it. NE may not turn the ball over 4 times again, but it's not out of the realm of possibilities for the NYG to be +2 in TO margin again.
butcher boy
Footballguy
I dont buy it. Eli had 2 interceptions against the 49ers that weren't caught because 2 49ers defenders ran into each other on BOTH passes. They're not playing turnover free football. There was so much fluky play in that game, I'm even hesitant to say it extended the Giant's streak of hot play. I'm really starting to think they come back down to earth, and lose to a better New England team.
Okay, you don't have to buy it. I'm not even trying to sell it. But you can't say the Giants are only here because of "fluky" plays, and not say the same for the Pats. A missed fg and a dropped TD in the Ravens game. The truth is, you have 2 teams in the superbowl because things really bounced their way. The main reasons why more money seems to be coming in on the Giants:1) They've beaten them the last 2 times.2) They've already beaten what many considered the best team in the NFL this year.3) There defense hasn't allowed more than 20 points in their 5 game winning streak. And this includes some pretty decent to good offenses (NYJ, Dallas, Atlanta, GB and SF)4) Meanwhile, there offense hasn't scored fewer than 20 points in any game (29, 31, 34, 37, 20). 5) Some people still question whether that Pats are capable of beating good teams. They have one win against a team with a winning record and many think they got lucky to escape with that win. 6) The NYG defenses strength (pass rush) is perhaps Brady's achilles heel. 7) Gronkowski may play, but I don't think anyone thinks he'll be 100%. 8) The Giants beat the Pats this year already without their best running back. 9) A lot of non-Patriot fans, hate the Patriots.Now, I'm sure you can come up with a list of why money should be coming on the Pats. But the point is NYG have a lot of reasons why they could/should/may win and why money would be coming in on them. So it's not shock to see this. Personally, I think the line is a tad high, but it's in the right ball park.
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Ron_Mexico
I Love Doggies
square
butcher boy
Footballguy
Exactly. Both teams did sort of fluke their way into the Superbowl, which is why I'll take the better team and the better QB on paper to win.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
I think everyone expects Gronk to play; how effective he will be is the big question mark.
And that's fine. Not trying to say you're wrong with saying the Pats are the better team, even though personally I'll disagree. I think it's pretty evenly matched, so I'll take the free points. Just giving you reasons why money might be coming in on the Giants.
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Insoxicated
With all due respect to Ellen J Harrow as I'm sure she's got fantastic insider knowledge as to the status of Vegas' books, but you guys realize that a Giants win means the futures bets on the other 31 teams lose right?
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Insoxicated
You gonna make any pie with all those Cherries you've got in your basket?
He said he didn't get why money would be coming in on the Giants. I gave reasons why I said people might bet the Giants. Not once in my post did I say I thought any listed reason was logical or valid. I also stated that you could create an equal list with reasons to bet the Patriots.
Dentist
***Official FBG Dentist***
I don't really care about the result, but I wish the NFL would have a rule that you can't make the playoffs without 10 wins.
it's sickening seeing teams a game above .500 possibly win titles.
MLB has the same problem.... NHL does too for that matter.
As much as people hate the BCS, at least I know i'm getting 2 of the top 2-5 teams in the title game.
it's sickening seeing teams a game above .500 possibly win titles.
MLB has the same problem.... NHL does too for that matter.
As much as people hate the BCS, at least I know i'm getting 2 of the top 2-5 teams in the title game.
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Insoxicated
While anything's possible I think you should look at some actual statistics before you make comments like this....2011 Take/Giveaway statistics
GIANTS:
Takeaways: 31
Giveaways: 24
Margin: +7
PATRIOTS:
Takaways: 34
Giveaways: 17
Margin: +17 (3rd best in the NFL)
Thanks, but I have looked at the statistics, perhaps you should think about the relevance of your posted statistics to the discussion before you post. I was simply pointing out to people saying that the Pats weren't going to turn the ball over 4 times again that they don't need to. They would only need to turn it over as few at 2. I didn't say it was likely, or even probable, just possible.
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Insoxicated
Is it possible that an asteroid hits the stadium and kills everyone? Cuz, you know, you didn't really get into that in your discussion.
butcher boy
Footballguy
I dont think anyone's arguing against anything being possible. I think the point here is that the Giants are getting bet on disproportionately to how these 2 teams seem to match up. Personally, I think people are putting too much weight on the last time the 2 teams met.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
It's all a crapshoot.
Dude, what are you talking about? Are you trying to tell me that that you think the chances of the Patriots losing the turnover battle 2 to 0 is the same chance as an asteriod hitting the stadium and killing everyone? Thats just idiotic.
Warrior
Footballguy
What's your point? The statement you quoted was in response to the OP saying he wouldn't play. So he was correcting him.What you stated is the obvious and nobody is disputing it.
Warrior
Footballguy
just stop.
No you think the Giants are getting bet disproportionately to how these 2 teams match up. And I'm not saying you're wrong. It's an opinion. My opinion differs. I was just giving the reasons I've heard as to why some people liked the Giants in the game. As I stated before there are plenty of reasons to like the Pats in this game too. For you, the reasons to like the Pats > then reasons to like the Giants. For me, the reasons to like the Giants > then the reasons to like the Pats. Personally, I think people that like the Pats are putting too much weight on them beating up crappy opponents. Just a difference of opinion, and wasn't trying to change yours or anyone elses.
You said you didn't understand why money was going on the Giants. As someone who has put money on the Giants, I am giving some of my reasons. But like I said, I think the game is very close, and if it weren't the superbowl I probably wouldn't put any money on the game. But when I think a game can easily go either way (and honestly I think you're only kidding yourself if you don't think that the Giants have at least decent shot at winning this game) I'll take the points.
Stop what?
nxmehta
Footballguy
If those top 2-5 teams are so good, maybe they should be able to beat the .500 teams in the playoffs?If a .500 team can take out 15-1 and 13-3 teams in high pressure playoff games then they absolutely deserve to be in the championship.You're saying you would rather evaluate a team based on it's record playing in less meaningful games against less talented opponents?
nxmehta
Footballguy
Stop making sense, apparently.
cheese
Footballguy
I am not sure which team is a good bet or if Vegas really does stand to lose a lot with the Giants winning, but I'm pretty confident the bolded will not happen. There is just too much money already on the 3 to move last minute to a position where people can middle and crush Vegas on the 3. You might even see NE -3 at +EV before they would do that. If its getting bet hard enough to warrant a line change in spite of this, thats already happening and will be moved now or VERY soon.
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