I'm as big of a VJax fan as you'll find, but even I don't think he's worth a 1st and a 3rd.....on top of the large contract he'd command.
I could be wrong, but I just don't see this happening.
Assuming a team spent a 1st round pick on a WR, what are the chances that that WR would end up being as good as Jackson? 20%?
It's not just a 1st. There is a new contract and a 3rd as well.
A third rounder is more than likely never going to contribute, and a 1st round WR isn't exactly going to have a cheap contract either. And if he does turn out good (likely several years down the line since it takes a WR a while to develop) he's going to be on the cusp of wanting a new contract himself anyway.Just look at the WRs that have been drafted in the 1st round lately. There are a lot that turned up completely useless. More than turned up useful, by far.
Let's go back a couple years (so we've given the draftees enough time to develop to see if they're any good or not) and look at the teams that drafted WRs in the 1st round and see what they got out of their 1st/3rd round picks. There were no WRs drafted in the 1st round in 2008 so we have to go back to 2007.
2007
Miami: Ted Ginn/Lorenzo Booker
Kansas City: Dwayne Bowe/DeMarcus Tyler
New Orleans: Robert Meachem/Usama Young
San Diego: Craig Davis/Anthony Waters
Indianapolis: Anthony Gonzalez/Dante Hughes
2006
Pittsburgh: Santonio Holmes/Willie Reid
2005
Cleveland: Braylon Edwards/Charlie Frye
Minnesota: Troy Williamson/Dustin Fox
Detroit: Mike Williams/Stanley Wilson
Jacksonville: Matt Jones/Scott Starks
Baltimore: Mark Clayton/Ellis Hobbs (New England picked Hobbs with Baltimore's 3rd round pick)
Atlanta: Roddy White/Jordan Beck
Detroit also took Calvin in '07 but I think it's safe to say no one is going to be giving up the #2 overall pick here (plus Detroit didn't have a 3rd rounder to compare).
So, how many of those duos would you take over a young, established, top WR like V-Jax even considering he'll need a new contract? And, if you would take ANY of them (I wouldn't), how big of an upgrade would you consider that over Vjax when noting that you're putting yourself at risk to end up with one of those Williamson/Fox combos to do it?