Wagering Degenerates: Help with instant gratification play (1 Viewer)

[GiantsRule]

Was on the sidelines most of the season but had a tremendous Saturday in colllege football going perfect until I chased an Arizona-Washington 2nd half over.

Nothing on the board looks real solid this week. I usually like to take a few bucks on an "instant gratification 3-teamer" where I pick 3 games likely to be shootouts and parlay the overs for the 1st half. But there's nothing that stands out to me.

Instead, I want to accelerate the "instant gratification" concept by taking the over in the first quarter. Lots of 1st qtr lines this week set on "7." So a quick TD and I'd be guaranteed a push at a minimum. For those who have been grinding it out through the first 6 weeks of the season, which 1st quarter has the best chance of scoring 8-points plus? Share your thoughts of the "best chance to hit" and save the "it's a lock" talk which just opens the door to ridicule if it doesn't happen.

Note: I personally care nothing about the under. No interest in rooting for punts and hoping a scoring drive extends into the 2nd quarter. However, in the spirit of having a discussion, feel free to chime in if you think a 1st quarter under is a good play. Thanks!

PIT-MIA

Over 7 (-130)

Under 7 (+110)

CIN-ATL

Over 7.5 (+105)

Under 7.5 (-125)

JAX-KCC

Over 7 (-115)

Under 7 (-105)

PHI-TEN

Over 7.5 (+105)

Under 7.5 (-125)

WAS-CHI

Over 7 (-120)

Under 7 (even)

CLE-NOS

Over 7.5 (-115)

Under 7.5 (-115)

BUF-BAL

Over 7.5 (+115)

Under 7.5 (-135)

STL-TBB

Over 7 (-120)

Under 7 (even)

SFO-CAR

Over 7 (+115)

Under 7 (-135)

 

[vandyt]

Under on the ATL and TEN games, over on PIT and KC

 

[bengalbuck]

Philly-Tennessee, New Orleans-Cleveland and TB-St. Louis are the 3 overs I would take personally.

I think those teams can pass on each other, which extends the quarter and obviously could lead to some big plays.

Bengals-Falcons in the dome isn't bad either, especially with each team's top CBs (Dunta Robinson and Jon Joseph) most likely out. (Though Joseph could play.) Both teams probably come out throwing.

 

[nittanylion]

Bengals at Falcons over is one of the most likely plays to hit this week, IMO. It's a short number, 43.5, though, so it's tough to predict how the 1st Q will go - the 1st Q doesn't need to be big for the number to hit...but given that both defenses are below average, the Falcons D is banged up, both Teams have above average offenses, and this is pretty much the Season on the line for the Bengals and they are coming off the bye, and road success is usually predicated by striking early...both Teams are capable of moving the ball through the air and both D's are susceptible to the pass, which should 'extend' the Game due to clock stoppages...well, I think it's as strong a play as any...good luck!

I also like the Oakland/Denver over, but that's a much riskier play.

 

[JAA]

Phil / Ten

Buf / Bal

Jax / KC