*WAIVER WIRE PICK-UPS AFTER WEEK 7* (2 Viewers)

[MindBomb]

Should I stash Herndon or Goedert to back up Kelce? Leaning towards Herndon, but Darnold's play last week spooked me a little. (pun intended)

Or

I could I retain a handcuff. Which leads to this question: of these handcuffs which have the greatest king-making potential?

Malcolm Brown (currently own)

D. Henderson

R. Penny

R. Armstead

 

[Chaka]

Should I stash Herndon or Goedert to back up Kelce? Leaning towards Herndon, but Darnold's play last week spooked me a little. (pun intended)

Or

I could I retain a handcuff. Which leads to this question: of these handcuffs which have the greatest king-making potential?

Malcolm Brown (currently own)

D. Henderson

R. Penny

R. Armstead

I think Henderson has a great opportunity this week to produce against the worst fantasy run defense va RBs. I see this game getting out of hand early and Gurley getting lots of rest. Brown still isn't healthy which gives Henderson a great opportunity to showcase his abilities.

If you are going to take a chance on him I would pick him up this week because he may be more sought after next week.

 

[conlilnew]

Sammy Watkins is available in my league. He's healthy again. Worth a pickup for a team that has Tyreek Hill as well? Full pt ppr league. 

 

[Chaka]

Sammy Watkins is available in my league. He's healthy again. Worth a pickup for a team that has Tyreek Hill as well? Full pt ppr league. 

Not imo.

He's done nothing since week one. He's another guy like Fuller or Stills that will but up a single-handed week winning performance on your bench then kill your hopes for 3-4 weeks chasing points that won't materialize until you send him back to the bench.

If your lineup is so amazing that you can afford a player like that as a starter then go for it, otherwise I'd pass.

 

[Cowboysfan8]

Cory Davis is a available in my league and this week's matchup looks solid.

I added him x2 this week. 

Ive has him before and been disappointed most times lol

Starting him in one this week

 

[Don Hutson]

Tampa Bay does not seem to utilize their TEs much (32 targets in 6 games), which is consistent with Bruce Ariana's MO for his entire coaching career.

Brate has 35.9 fantasy points this season while only playing 33% of snaps.  His snap count should at least double if Howard is out.  Doubling 35.9 fantasy points would be 71.8 fantasy points which would be the 9th highest amount for a tight end this year.  Brate's snap count doubling is a conservative estimate.  90% of snaps is a strong possibility.  

 

[Stompin' Tom Connors]

Do you have Guice already stashed on your bench hoping he’s back in the saddle by FF playoffs?

Actually have him stashed in the hopes I can start trotting him out Week 11. Will desperately looking for a RB fill-in for byes. It's aggressive as there is no telling when he'll be back at this point, but I think he has a good (if lowish) floor with some good upside if he comes back strong and healthy.

a few comments here. to me, hunt comes back as the clear backup ( i believe glazer stated this last week)... that being said, the upside of hunt if chubb were to go down is far greater than whatever guice would get you on 1st and 2nd down RB on a terrible team. hunt has league winning upside

No question Hunt has greater value in the case of injury. Trying to weigh values assuming Chubb stays healthy. Do you believe if Chubb remains the main guy and has no injury issues, Hunt would still be a better value than Guice (or Samuels for that matter)?

 

[georg013]

Does Antonio Brown join another team this year if the league investigation comes back favorably?

 

[The Frankman]

Does Antonio Brown join another team this year if the league investigation comes back favorably?

I mean, there are a lot of investigations to go through for him so I doubt it.

Then again he didn't kneel during the flag so I guess some team will give him a shot.

 

[Chaka]

Brate has 35.9 fantasy points this season while only playing 33% of snaps.  His snap count should at least double if Howard is out.  Doubling 35.9 fantasy points would be 71.8 fantasy points which would be the 9th highest amount for a tight end this year.  Brate's snap count doubling is a conservative estimate.  90% of snaps is a strong possibility.  

I'm not sure you should expect some kind of linear correlation. TB TEs as a unit have had 32 targets in six games. They have had 8, 3, 6, 7, 2 & 7 targets.

Even if we assume all the volume goes to Brate, a specious argument at best, what is his upside for targets and receptions with Winston as his QB?

I like Brate for talent but hate his situation, even without Howard, you're hoping for a TD. It's certainly possible but I don't see much upside beyond limited yardage and a possible short score.

 

[georg013]

I mean, there are a lot of investigations to go through for him so I doubt it.

Then again he didn't kneel during the flag so I guess some team will give him a shot.

https://twitter.com/AB84/status/1187353116238323712?s=20

Thoughts?

 

[The Frankman]

https://twitter.com/AB84/status/1187353116238323712?s=20

Thoughts?

Oh I DEFINITELY think he'll dominate the XFL in 2020. You gotta make him a 1st round pick in your draft.

 

[Chaka]

https://twitter.com/AB84/status/1187353116238323712?s=20

Thoughts?

He ain't playing in 2019. 2020? Maybe? Probably? But who can trust him? I'd say he's a meltdown waiting for a Dyatlov but that's too kind.

He's a three year old who doesn't want to go to bed, every single Sunday.

Wouldn't touch him in any format before the 8th round in 2020.

 

[Don Hutson]

I'm not sure you should expect some kind of linear correlation. TB TEs as a unit have had 32 targets in six games. They have had 8, 3, 6, 7, 2 & 7 targets.

Even if we assume all the volume goes to Brate, a specious argument at best, what is his upside for targets and receptions with Winston as his QB?

I like Brate for talent but hate his situation, even without Howard, you're hoping for a TD. It's certainly possible but I don't see much upside beyond limited yardage and a possible short score.

Cameron Brate has mostly been used as a receiver this season.  Howard has not.  Brate will get 70%-90% of snaps if Howard is out.  If they continue to use Brate mostly as a receiver he will put up nice fantasy stats.  Brate and Winston have always had nice chemistry together.  But maybe they will need Brate to change roles and become more of a blocker.  Brate is a better receiver than blocker.  This situation could go either way.  A 50% chance at a top 10 tight end is a worthy investment.

 

[Chaka]

Cameron Brate has mostly been used as a receiver this season.  Howard has not.  Brate will get 70%-90% of snaps if Howard is out.  If they continue to use Brate mostly as a receiver he will put up nice fantasy stats.  Brate and Winston have always had nice chemistry together.  But maybe they will need Brate to change roles and become more of a blocker.  Brate is a better receiver than blocker.  This situation could go either way.  A 50% chance at a top 10 tight end is a worthy investment.

Just to be clear as we disagree by a wide margin, I'm not trying to be adversarial, or rain on your parade. Just want that out there before I continue.

Howard isn't a blocking TE, if Arians uses him as such it only speaks to his disdain for the position.

Brate isn't a blocking TE either. He and Howard are very similarly built (Brate is an inch shorter and 6lbs lighter). 

But none of that is really relevant. Why would we think that Brate getting more PT would translate to different usage of the TE position in this offense? Seems to me it is just as likely that Brate assumes the majority of Howard's role, not just the route running aspect. So if the position group has maxed out at 8 targets (once in six games) shouldn't that be Brate's absolute ceiling? That assumes he absorbs 100% of Howard's opportunities. And how likely is that?

Dart throw hoping for a TD.

 

[Don Hutson]

Just to be clear as we disagree by a wide margin, I'm not trying to be adversarial, or rain on your parade. Just want that out there before I continue.

Howard isn't a blocking TE, if Arians uses him as such it only speaks to his disdain for the position.

Brate isn't a blocking TE either. He and Howard are very similarly built (Brate is an inch shorter and 6lbs lighter). 

But none of that is really relevant. Why would we think that Brate getting more PT would translate to different usage of the TE position in this offense? Seems to me it is just as likely that Brate assumes the majority of Howard's role, not just the route running aspect. So if the position group has maxed out at 8 targets (once in six games) shouldn't that be Brate's absolute ceiling? That assumes he absorbs 100% of Howard's opportunities. And how likely is that?

Dart throw hoping for a TD.

Brate was the 7th highest fantasy scoring tight end in 2016.  He was the 9th highest fantasy scoring tight end in 2017.  He played most of 2018 with a torn labrum in his hip but still finished the 19th highest while only playing 47% of snaps.  He has been a consistently productive receiver with the snaps he has gotten at all times in his career.  That includes Brate being a productive receiver in the snaps he has gotten this year in Arians' system.  Here are two touchdowns that were called back because of holding in week 2 of this year.  He moves well in the first one and shows high level wide receiver skills in the second one.  He is an elite level red zone threat.  You can call him a one trick pony but touchdowns score a lot of fantasy points.  Touchdowns score enough fantasy points to have pushed him into the top ten of tight end fantasy scoring in 2 of the last 3 years.

Howard has clearly been in the doghouse this season.  Arians thinks he isn't working hard and has probably been punishing him by not featuring him as a receiver.  Arians is trying to build a culture and OJ Howard is an easy target to make an example.  Brate is not in the doghouse.  And Arians has been using him as a receiver.  While Brate's blocking duties will certainly increase with more snaps, so will his receiving opportunities.  The real question isn't whether his receiving opportunities will increase but by how much they will increase in a Howardless world.

 

[Tanner9919]

Stills, AJ Brown, C. Samuel, Jamaal Williams

Tannehill v. .TB is too appealing to pass up

something tells me Jameis Winston has himself a game against Tenn.

 

[davearm]

Brate was the 7th highest fantasy scoring tight end in 2016.  He was the 9th highest fantasy scoring tight end in 2017.  He played most of 2018 with a torn labrum in his hip but still finished the 19th highest while only playing 47% of snaps.  He has been a consistently productive receiver with the snaps he has gotten at all times in his career.  That includes Brate being a productive receiver in the snaps he has gotten this year in Arians' system.  Here are two touchdowns that were called back because of holding in week 2 of this year.  He moves well in the first one and shows high level wide receiver skills in the second one.  He is an elite level red zone threat.  You can call him a one trick pony but touchdowns score a lot of fantasy points.  Touchdowns score enough fantasy points to have pushed him into the top ten of tight end fantasy scoring in 2 of the last 3 years.

Howard has clearly been in the doghouse this season.  Arians thinks he isn't working hard and has probably been punishing him by not featuring him as a receiver.  Arians is trying to build a culture and OJ Howard is an easy target to make an example.  Brate is not in the doghouse.  And Arians has been using him as a receiver.  While Brate's blocking duties will certainly increase with more snaps, so will his receiving opportunities.  The real question isn't whether his receiving opportunities will increase but by how much they will increase in a Howardless world.

Just ran Brate's career numbers prior to 2019, these are per game averages (with 2019 averages after 6 games):

Snaps: 35 (24 in 2019)

Targets: 3.9 (2.5 in 2019)

Fantasy points: 5.3 (4.0 in 2019)

So altogether, his snaps are down ~32%, his targets down ~24%, and his fantasy points down ~36% from his career norms.  About what you would expect moving to a system that relies less on the TE.

Expecting any of these utilization metrics to double would put him significantly above his career averages.  So, no you're not being conservative at all.  The 90% of snaps assumption is probably the most egregious, but it's not the only one.  TB is running an average of 71 plays a game.  That would have him on the field for 64 plays.  Up from a career average of 35.  Not happening.

 

[Don Hutson]

Just ran Brate's career numbers prior to 2019, these are per game averages (with 2019 averages after 6 games):

Snaps: 35 (24 in 2019)

Targets: 3.9 (2.5 in 2019)

Fantasy points: 5.3 (4.0 in 2019)

So altogether, his snaps are down ~32%, his targets down ~24%, and his fantasy points down ~36% from his career norms.  About what you would expect moving to a system that relies less on the TE.

Expecting any of these utilization metrics to double would put him significantly above his career averages.  So, no you're not being conservative at all.  The 90% of snaps assumption is probably the most egregious, but it's not the only one.  TB is running an average of 71 plays a game.  That would have him on the field for 64 plays.  Up from a career average of 35.  Not happening.

Brate played 62% of snaps in 2016 which was the year before Howard came.  He had 6 games with over 70% of snaps and 3 games with over 80% of snaps.  Tampa Bay does not have as good of depth at receiver as they did in previous years.  Brate will play 70%-90% of snaps in any game without Howard playing.

 

[Chaka]

Brate was the 7th highest fantasy scoring tight end in 2016.  He was the 9th highest fantasy scoring tight end in 2017.  He played most of 2018 with a torn labrum in his hip but still finished the 19th highest while only playing 47% of snaps.  He has been a consistently productive receiver with the snaps he has gotten at all times in his career.  That includes Brate being a productive receiver in the snaps he has gotten this year in Arians' system.  Here are two touchdowns that were called back because of holding in week 2 of this year.  He moves well in the first one and shows high level wide receiver skills in the second one.  He is an elite level red zone threat.  You can call him a one trick pony but touchdowns score a lot of fantasy points.  Touchdowns score enough fantasy points to have pushed him into the top ten of tight end fantasy scoring in 2 of the last 3 years.

Howard has clearly been in the doghouse this season.  Arians thinks he isn't working hard and has probably been punishing him by not featuring him as a receiver.  Arians is trying to build a culture and OJ Howard is an easy target to make an example.  Brate is not in the doghouse.  And Arians has been using him as a receiver.  While Brate's blocking duties will certainly increase with more snaps, so will his receiving opportunities.  The real question isn't whether his receiving opportunities will increase but by how much they will increase in a Howardless world.

I have repeatedly stated that I like Brate's talent. Never called him a one trick pony.

I would completely agree with all of your projections about his utilization and efficiency without Howard if Dirk Koetter were still the HC in TB but he's not, so I don't know why we are talking about him.

What happened at any point before this season simply is not a valid benchmark for what will happen this season.

 

[davearm]

Brate played 62% of snaps in 2016 which was the year before Howard came.  He had 6 games with over 70% of snaps and 3 games with over 80% of snaps.  Tampa Bay does not have as good of depth at receiver as they did in previous years.  Brate will play 70%-90% of snaps in any game without Howard playing.

Your numbers are wrong.  FBG shows 5 games over 70% and 2 over 80% in 2016, and 61% overall.

Regardless:

• 8 games in the 70-90% range out of the last 53 (15%). 
  
• It's not 2016.
  

 

[Don Hutson]

Your numbers are wrong.  FBG shows 5 games over 70% and 2 over 80% in 2016, and 61% overall.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BratCa00/fantasy/2016

It's not 2016.

Exactly.  Brate is no longer inexperienced like he was in 2016.  The Bucs are going to lean on him if Howard is out.  And Howard has played 81% of snaps so there are plenty of snaps available.

 

[rockaction]

This isn't right, Don. You've come up with some off-the-wall scenarios for TEs in these threads, like Ben Watson putting up overall TE3 numbers.

These hypos about Brate are debunked well by davearm; I'm not sure what you're trying to accomplish here.