THE UNDERCOVER BROTHA
Footballguy
maybe be wannabess......I just wanted some rational on it. Thanks alot man!
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wannabee Strategy Thread (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter wannabee
- Start date
wannabee
Footballguy
As you can tell, I am a fan of waiting on a QB. I would like to add the combination of Kurt Warner and Matt Leinart to the list. Since this strategy involves taking both QBs, ADP will be a factor since you have to use two picks. Kurt Warner is being drafted in redrafts as QB14 and 95th overall. That is basically the tail end of round 8. Leinart is being drafted as QB26 and 159 overall (up 37 spots overall). I think the increase in Leinart's ADP comes from people packaging he and Warner together.
http://www.footballguys.com/06dodds_adp.php
The Cardinals did add Edge James to the fold which should help the Cardinals become more of a balanced attack. I think James' presence will add more TDs and allow more drives to be extended.
But, let's look at the 2005 Cardinals from a stats perspective:
670 pass attempts - first in the NFL
419 pass completions - first in the NFL
7.05 yards per pass attempt - 12th in NFL
4723 passing yards - first in the NFL (WOW! avg of almost 300 pass yds/game)
21 Pass TDs - 12th in NFL
360 rush attempts - last in NFL
1160 rush yards - last in NFL
3.16 team yards per carry - last in NFL
2 rushing TDs - last in NFL
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/crd2005.htm
So, in summary the Cardinals pass offense was first in the NFL and the rush offense was dead last in NFL. I think the addition of Edge levels this out some. But, I still expect the Cardinals to throw the ball quite a bit. It is the Denny Green way. The addition of James should lead to more pass TDs. It sounds crazy that the Cardinalls averaged just shy of 300 pass yds per game, but less than 1.5 TDs per game for entire offense (pass and rush combined).
Conclusion:
I expect these numbers to level out some. But, even so, the increase in TDs (and decrease in field goals) should make up for the fewer pass attempts and yards. Last year, in 10 games, Warner was QB9 in points per game, less than one point/game lower than Peyton Manning at QB5. For 2006, I expect Warner (if he stays healthy) to be a top 10 QB once again. He has arguably the best WR tandem in Fitzgerald and Boldin. One is entering his 4th year, the other his 3rd. James is a good receiver which should help some, too. Plus, the Cardinals drafted a rookie TE, Pope.
To make this strategy work, given Warner's lengthy injury history, is the drafting of Matt Leinart. Kurt Warner has been a gracious tutor wherever he has been and I expect this to continue. And, given this, I would expect Leinart to produce numbers close to Warner's given a Warner injury.
If you wait to draft a QB, and want a QB with tremendous upside fairly late in the draft, take the combination of Warner and Leinart.
http://insidethestats.com/index.php?pos=1&...ats&statstype=1
http://www.footballguys.com/06dodds_adp.php
The Cardinals did add Edge James to the fold which should help the Cardinals become more of a balanced attack. I think James' presence will add more TDs and allow more drives to be extended.
But, let's look at the 2005 Cardinals from a stats perspective:
670 pass attempts - first in the NFL
419 pass completions - first in the NFL
7.05 yards per pass attempt - 12th in NFL
4723 passing yards - first in the NFL (WOW! avg of almost 300 pass yds/game)
21 Pass TDs - 12th in NFL
360 rush attempts - last in NFL
1160 rush yards - last in NFL
3.16 team yards per carry - last in NFL
2 rushing TDs - last in NFL
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/crd2005.htm
So, in summary the Cardinals pass offense was first in the NFL and the rush offense was dead last in NFL. I think the addition of Edge levels this out some. But, I still expect the Cardinals to throw the ball quite a bit. It is the Denny Green way. The addition of James should lead to more pass TDs. It sounds crazy that the Cardinalls averaged just shy of 300 pass yds per game, but less than 1.5 TDs per game for entire offense (pass and rush combined).
Conclusion:
I expect these numbers to level out some. But, even so, the increase in TDs (and decrease in field goals) should make up for the fewer pass attempts and yards. Last year, in 10 games, Warner was QB9 in points per game, less than one point/game lower than Peyton Manning at QB5. For 2006, I expect Warner (if he stays healthy) to be a top 10 QB once again. He has arguably the best WR tandem in Fitzgerald and Boldin. One is entering his 4th year, the other his 3rd. James is a good receiver which should help some, too. Plus, the Cardinals drafted a rookie TE, Pope.
To make this strategy work, given Warner's lengthy injury history, is the drafting of Matt Leinart. Kurt Warner has been a gracious tutor wherever he has been and I expect this to continue. And, given this, I would expect Leinart to produce numbers close to Warner's given a Warner injury.
If you wait to draft a QB, and want a QB with tremendous upside fairly late in the draft, take the combination of Warner and Leinart.
http://insidethestats.com/index.php?pos=1&...ats&statstype=1
Gandalf
Footballguy
Hi Wannabee,
Can I get a quick opinion on an offer? I posted this in a poll thread, but wanted your opinion.
LT for Steven Jackson and Chad Johnson
I listened to you before and kept LT, but now that owner keeps upping his offer. This is probably as high as he'll go, but it went from Burress to Wayne to now CJ. I'm torn on this, but I guess the way to look at it is that is the upgrade from Stallworth/Curtis to CJ worth more than the downgrade from LT to SJax? And also playing a role is that SJax is 3-4 years younger than LT so I could be setting my team up to dominate in a couple of years.
Any help is appreciated. Thanks.
EDIT: Thanks for answering this question in my other thread. I need to buy a crystal ball...
Can I get a quick opinion on an offer? I posted this in a poll thread, but wanted your opinion.
LT for Steven Jackson and Chad Johnson
I listened to you before and kept LT, but now that owner keeps upping his offer. This is probably as high as he'll go, but it went from Burress to Wayne to now CJ. I'm torn on this, but I guess the way to look at it is that is the upgrade from Stallworth/Curtis to CJ worth more than the downgrade from LT to SJax? And also playing a role is that SJax is 3-4 years younger than LT so I could be setting my team up to dominate in a couple of years.
Any help is appreciated. Thanks.
EDIT: Thanks for answering this question in my other thread. I need to buy a crystal ball...
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wannabee
Footballguy
I wrote this:If you are willing to trade LT, I feel this is fair value. The questions become: are you willing to trade LT? and do you feel comfortable enough wigh SJax as an anchor to your team?
I think only you can decide if so.
But, if it is me, and in a non-PPR league, I do not do it. I know many disagree. My rationale is:
Since you start 3 RBs each week, RBs are gold. In addition, I think Stallworth will be closer to CJohnson than Jackson will be to LT.
But, this is because I really like having that stud RB in LT to start each week.
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wannabee
Footballguy
This is not the year for Stud WR theory:
I posted some of the below in the Shark Pool today. I recognize the stud WR theory as viable in some years. This is not one of them. If you draft WRs in your first two rounds of redraft, you are costing yourself a ton of value.
Here is the original post (and the follow up posts) altered for this thread:
Assuming no PPR, I think this will be a very difficult year to go WR/WR irregardless of your draft position. I think this year the WRs at the top are there out of default. There is no STUD WR in the mold of Rice, TO (as a niner), etc. As a result of the dropoff in RB talent, we are reaching for WRs too high. I think RB/WR is much more reasonable. Holt as a WR in second helps your team much more than either WR/RB or WR/WR. I much prefer Jordan (for example)/Holt than Fitz/Holt or even Fitz/Willis.
The point is that there is no sure WR1. If you look at most drafts going on now, there are three WRs that switch off as the first WR drafted (Fitz, Smith, and CJ) and a few with Holt going first.
Back in the day when stud WR was viable, imo, was when you could have an anchor WR in the first round. Also, imo, the WRs4-10 (not in any order: Boldin, Holt, Chambers, Harrison, TO, Moss, and Harrison) each have as good of chance to be WR1 at the end of the season as each of the WR1-3 (Fitz, Smith, and CJ).
The conclusion is that with this depth at WR, you do not have to draft a WR in first. In fact, if you do so, you leave a ton of value on the table. A first round RB and second round WR will out score the WR/RB or WR/WR. This is because you can get Harrison, Chambers or even Moss in the 3rd round. Whereas the WR dropoff is not steep this year through the first 10 WRs, the dropoff at RB is.
Here are the ADPs to support my statements above:
12 13 1 WR1 Steve Smith Car/9
17 17 0 WR2 Chad Johnson Cin/5
18 18 0 WR3 Terrell Owens Dal/3
19 19 0 WR4 Larry Fitzgerald Ari/9
20 20 0 WR5 Torry Holt StL/7
22 22 0 WR6 Randy Moss Oak/3
23 23 0 WR7 Marvin Harrison Ind/6
24 24 0 WR8 Anquan Boldin Ari/9
29 29 0 WR9 Chris Chambers Mia/8
32 34 2 WR10 Reggie Wayne Ind/6
34 32 -2 WR11 Hines Ward Pit/4
36 38 2 WR12 Darrell Jackson Sea/5
37 35 -2 WR13 Santana Moss Was/8
39 42 3 WR14 Roy Williams Det/8
40 39 -1 WR15 Plaxico Burress NYG/4
Here are the ADPs of the RBs in the late 1st round through the mid 2nd round:
8 8 0 RB8 LaMont Jordan Oak/3
9 9 0 RB9 Ronnie Brown Mia/8
10 11 1 RB10 Cadillac Williams TB/4
11 10 -1 RB11 Rudi Johnson Cin/5
14 12 -2 RB12 Willis McGahee Buf/8
15 15 0 RB13 Domanick Davis Hou/5
16 16 0 RB14 Brian Westbrook Phi/9
21 21 0 RB15 Julius Jones Dal/3
25 27 2 RB16 Kevin Jones Det/8
26 25 -1 RB17 Willie Parker Pit/4
28 28 0 RB18 Jamal Lewis Bal/7
30 30 0 RB19 Reuben Droughns Cle/6
31 31 0 RB20 Reggie Bush NO/7
33 33 0 RB21 Chester Taylor Min/6
35 36 1 RB22 Warrick Dunn Atl/5
So, in the late 1st round, you have a choice of, at the very worst, Rudi, Willis, or DDavis (per ADP) or a top WR. My conclusion says that, per ADP, at pick 1.10 (for example), you should have the following choices for the first two rounds:
Rudi and any WR not named Smith
Smith and any WR not named Smith
Smith and either DomDavis or Westbrook
Rudi and either DomDavis or Westbrook
The WRs available in the 3rd round allow th savvy owner to take a very solid first round RB in round one, CJohnson (for example) in round two, and a very solid WR in round three like Hines Ward.
Here are the choices once again (I used CJ and Ward as examples and realize that personal preferences will apply):
Rudi, CJohnson, Ward
Rudi, CJohnson, Dunn
Smith, CJohnson, Ward
Smith, CJohnson, Dunn
Smith, DomDavis, Dunn
Smith, DomDavis, Ward
Rudi, DomDavis, Dunn
Rudi, DomDavis, Ward
Since this is a non-PPR example, I think the best team is the Rudi, CJ, and Ward. I think this is a very good start for a team in the 10 spot in a 12 team draft.It seems to me that the third round WRs offer very good value. Even if drafting from the 1.02 spot, a LT, Harrison, Chambers is a very good start. But, imo, there is no possible way a team drafting WR/WR in rounds one and two can compete with a team starting LT, Harrison, and Chambers assuming no injuries.
Thoughts?
I posted some of the below in the Shark Pool today. I recognize the stud WR theory as viable in some years. This is not one of them. If you draft WRs in your first two rounds of redraft, you are costing yourself a ton of value.
Here is the original post (and the follow up posts) altered for this thread:
Assuming no PPR, I think this will be a very difficult year to go WR/WR irregardless of your draft position. I think this year the WRs at the top are there out of default. There is no STUD WR in the mold of Rice, TO (as a niner), etc. As a result of the dropoff in RB talent, we are reaching for WRs too high. I think RB/WR is much more reasonable. Holt as a WR in second helps your team much more than either WR/RB or WR/WR. I much prefer Jordan (for example)/Holt than Fitz/Holt or even Fitz/Willis.
The point is that there is no sure WR1. If you look at most drafts going on now, there are three WRs that switch off as the first WR drafted (Fitz, Smith, and CJ) and a few with Holt going first.
Back in the day when stud WR was viable, imo, was when you could have an anchor WR in the first round. Also, imo, the WRs4-10 (not in any order: Boldin, Holt, Chambers, Harrison, TO, Moss, and Harrison) each have as good of chance to be WR1 at the end of the season as each of the WR1-3 (Fitz, Smith, and CJ).
The conclusion is that with this depth at WR, you do not have to draft a WR in first. In fact, if you do so, you leave a ton of value on the table. A first round RB and second round WR will out score the WR/RB or WR/WR. This is because you can get Harrison, Chambers or even Moss in the 3rd round. Whereas the WR dropoff is not steep this year through the first 10 WRs, the dropoff at RB is.
Here are the ADPs to support my statements above:
12 13 1 WR1 Steve Smith Car/9
17 17 0 WR2 Chad Johnson Cin/5
18 18 0 WR3 Terrell Owens Dal/3
19 19 0 WR4 Larry Fitzgerald Ari/9
20 20 0 WR5 Torry Holt StL/7
22 22 0 WR6 Randy Moss Oak/3
23 23 0 WR7 Marvin Harrison Ind/6
24 24 0 WR8 Anquan Boldin Ari/9
29 29 0 WR9 Chris Chambers Mia/8
32 34 2 WR10 Reggie Wayne Ind/6
34 32 -2 WR11 Hines Ward Pit/4
36 38 2 WR12 Darrell Jackson Sea/5
37 35 -2 WR13 Santana Moss Was/8
39 42 3 WR14 Roy Williams Det/8
40 39 -1 WR15 Plaxico Burress NYG/4
Here are the ADPs of the RBs in the late 1st round through the mid 2nd round:
8 8 0 RB8 LaMont Jordan Oak/3
9 9 0 RB9 Ronnie Brown Mia/8
10 11 1 RB10 Cadillac Williams TB/4
11 10 -1 RB11 Rudi Johnson Cin/5
14 12 -2 RB12 Willis McGahee Buf/8
15 15 0 RB13 Domanick Davis Hou/5
16 16 0 RB14 Brian Westbrook Phi/9
21 21 0 RB15 Julius Jones Dal/3
25 27 2 RB16 Kevin Jones Det/8
26 25 -1 RB17 Willie Parker Pit/4
28 28 0 RB18 Jamal Lewis Bal/7
30 30 0 RB19 Reuben Droughns Cle/6
31 31 0 RB20 Reggie Bush NO/7
33 33 0 RB21 Chester Taylor Min/6
35 36 1 RB22 Warrick Dunn Atl/5
So, in the late 1st round, you have a choice of, at the very worst, Rudi, Willis, or DDavis (per ADP) or a top WR. My conclusion says that, per ADP, at pick 1.10 (for example), you should have the following choices for the first two rounds:
Rudi and any WR not named Smith
Smith and any WR not named Smith
Smith and either DomDavis or Westbrook
Rudi and either DomDavis or Westbrook
The WRs available in the 3rd round allow th savvy owner to take a very solid first round RB in round one, CJohnson (for example) in round two, and a very solid WR in round three like Hines Ward.
Here are the choices once again (I used CJ and Ward as examples and realize that personal preferences will apply):
Rudi, CJohnson, Ward
Rudi, CJohnson, Dunn
Smith, CJohnson, Ward
Smith, CJohnson, Dunn
Smith, DomDavis, Dunn
Smith, DomDavis, Ward
Rudi, DomDavis, Dunn
Rudi, DomDavis, Ward
Since this is a non-PPR example, I think the best team is the Rudi, CJ, and Ward. I think this is a very good start for a team in the 10 spot in a 12 team draft.It seems to me that the third round WRs offer very good value. Even if drafting from the 1.02 spot, a LT, Harrison, Chambers is a very good start. But, imo, there is no possible way a team drafting WR/WR in rounds one and two can compete with a team starting LT, Harrison, and Chambers assuming no injuries.
Thoughts?
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wannabee
Footballguy
Just a heads up that I will be heading out of town bright and early Sunday morning for a week in Colorado, where (hopefully) it is cooler. I will be gone a week and will be able to check in from time to time. But, I do not think I will be able to put out one strategy post a day for the week.
Jeter23 has graciously offered to man the post while I am gone. He knows his stuff, probably better than me.
I do not know how many read this thread and how often, but wanted to give a heads up. Thanks to many for helping me get this thread going.
Please let me know of any direction or info you want this thread to go. Do people like the daily strategy posts? Anything else? Also, if anyone wants to discuss ideas like Undercover Brotha did a few posts ago, I am game.
Jeter23 has graciously offered to man the post while I am gone. He knows his stuff, probably better than me.
I do not know how many read this thread and how often, but wanted to give a heads up. Thanks to many for helping me get this thread going.
Please let me know of any direction or info you want this thread to go. Do people like the daily strategy posts? Anything else? Also, if anyone wants to discuss ideas like Undercover Brotha did a few posts ago, I am game.
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BroncoFreak_2K3
sucker for Orange
good stuff Wannabee..I agree wholeheartedly with your above assessment ..enjoy your vacation !!!
Packers4ever
Footballguy
9 Player keeper league, 10 teams, start 1 QB, 2 RB's, 3WR's, 1TE. Scroring is QB's 3pts/TD and 1pt/25yrds
RB's & WR's 6pts/TD and 1pt/20yrds.
My keepers Cul-pepper, C. Brown, C. Dillon, A. Green, K. Jones, C. Chambers, Roy Williams, M. Clayton , K. Winslow.
His Keepers W. Dunn, D. Foster, W. McGahee, A. Boldin, Mark Clayton, L. Evans, M. Harrison, M. Muhammad, & T. Gonzalez.
This is the trade he offered which I rejected.
McGahee, Willis
Harrison, Marvin
Year 2006 Draft Pick 4.06
Dillon, Corey
Clayton, Michael
Year 2006 Draft Pick 1.01
I am thinking of offering him
Dillon, Corey
Clayton, Michael
Year 2006 Draft Pick 1.01
For McGahee, & Boldin
He seems to want the #1 pick he has made me 4 offers already.
Is Bush worth the trade he offered and is mine way to much or do I need to put Williams or Chambers instead of Clayton.
What do you think is a fair trade for the #1 pick.
RB's & WR's 6pts/TD and 1pt/20yrds.
My keepers Cul-pepper, C. Brown, C. Dillon, A. Green, K. Jones, C. Chambers, Roy Williams, M. Clayton , K. Winslow.
His Keepers W. Dunn, D. Foster, W. McGahee, A. Boldin, Mark Clayton, L. Evans, M. Harrison, M. Muhammad, & T. Gonzalez.
This is the trade he offered which I rejected.
McGahee, Willis
Harrison, Marvin
Year 2006 Draft Pick 4.06
Dillon, Corey
Clayton, Michael
Year 2006 Draft Pick 1.01
I am thinking of offering him
Dillon, Corey
Clayton, Michael
Year 2006 Draft Pick 1.01
For McGahee, & Boldin
He seems to want the #1 pick he has made me 4 offers already.
Is Bush worth the trade he offered and is mine way to much or do I need to put Williams or Chambers instead of Clayton.
What do you think is a fair trade for the #1 pick.
wannabee
Footballguy
The difference, if I an reading it correctly is Harrison and 4.06 vs. Boldin. I think that seems reasonable. The thing, imo, is that you will be taking two of his best three players. It seems that you value Boldin more, which is understandable. Here are some other options:
add swapping Winslow for Gonzo instead of the 4th rounder
I like the Boldin deal, and you might ask for a low end pick pack just for giggles
In the Harrison deal, ask for a better pick like a 2nd or 3rd
Swap Green foe DIllon since Dillon is worth quite a bit more
Since you are the one who rejected the initial offer, I would think he would go for one of the above options. Giving up Bush and Dillon for WIllis, plus the upgrade at WR, is a big deal. I think Dillon might have a decent year, and Bush has a lot of hype, so I think you can push the envelope a little more.
Hope this helps.
wannabee
Footballguy
How soon do you take a Team Defense in redraft? Well, I think where the Bears Defense is being taken, it is WAY too early. They are the first defense taken and are averaging being taken at pick 85. That is pick 8.01. That is early ... very early. Here are the players picked about the same place and are better values:
80 77 -3 RB39 Laurence Maroney NE/6
81 88 7 QB11 Drew Bledsoe Dal/3
82 84 2 WR25 Michael Clayton TB/4
83 93 10 WR26 Rod Smith Den/4
84 81 -3 WR27 Laveranues Coles NYJ/9
85 91 6 Def1 Chicago Bears Chi/7
86 82 -4 TE8 Randy McMichael Mia/8
87 86 -1 WR28 Nate Burleson Sea/5
88 97 9 WR29 Reggie Brown Phi/9
89 80 -9 QB12 Trent Green KC/3
90 87 -3 QB13 Jake Plummer Den/4
91 95 4 WR30 Muhsin Muhammad Chi/7
92 100 8 WR31 Drew Bennett Ten/7
93 83 -10 WR32 Donte Stallworth NO/7
94 90 -4 WR33 Jerry Porter Oak/3
95 98 3 QB14 Kurt Warner Ari/9
96 101 5 WR34 Eddie Kennison KC/3
97 92 -5 QB15 Drew Brees NO/7
98 94 -4 QB16 Ben Roethlisberger Pit/4
99 96 -3 TE9 Vernon Davis SF/7
100 108 8 WR35 Koren Robinson Min/6
101 103 2 RB40 Marion Barber III Dal/3
102 106 4 TE10 Heath Miller Pit/4
103 105 2 Def2 Pittsburgh Steelers Pit/4
104 99 -5 TE11 L.J. Smith Phi/9
105 122 17 WR36 Matt Jones Jac/6
106 107 1 Def3 Carolina Panthers Car/9
126 129 3 Def4 Indianapolis Colts Ind/6
128 128 0 Def5 Baltimore Ravens Bal/7
136 136 0 Def6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers TB/4
It is not that the Bears Defense is not worth that draft pick, but it is because of the value that comes into play. In many leagues, the Bears Def finished top 30 overall. But, the Panther Defense finished real close behind and only a fraction of a point per game difference. With almost a two round difference between the Bear Defense and the Panther Defense, I will take the Panther Defense.
It seems to me that Coles is a much better value at WR27 and pick 84 than the Bears Defense is at pick 85 since Coles is at the end of a WR run and is last (or one of) WR before a dropoff.
Currently, FBG projections have:
RNK NAME/FPT
1 Carolina Panthers 161.32
2 Chicago Bears 158.08
3 Pittsburgh Steelers 157.73
4 Baltimore Ravens 147.08
5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 141.17
With the following WR ADPs, it seems that the Tampa Bay and Baltimore Team Defenses, in addition to Carolina, offer a much better value especially if you get Coles instead.
Look at the WRs with ADPs just following Coles:
ADP Player Fant pt
28 Laveranues Coles NYJ 126.8
29 Matt Jones JAX 124.0
30 Koren Robinson MIN 118.0
31 Donte Stallworth NO 117.8
32 Reggie Brown PHI 117.2
33 Michael Clayton TB 114.0
34 Joe Horn NO 112.8
35 Key Johnson CAR 111.9
36 Keenan McCardell SD 110.5
37 Jerry Porter OAK 106.3
38 Joe Jurevicius CLE 105.4
39 Ernest Wilford JAX 105.0
40 Antonio Bryant SF 103.8
41 Drew Bennett TEN 101.8
Conclusion:
The Chicago Team Defense is definitely a great scoring fantasy defense. But, it offers little value in your draft. But, Carolina, Baltimore and Tampa Bay Team Defenses, when comparing ADP and projections, offers much better value and allow you to build your team stronger in the early rounds.
80 77 -3 RB39 Laurence Maroney NE/6
81 88 7 QB11 Drew Bledsoe Dal/3
82 84 2 WR25 Michael Clayton TB/4
83 93 10 WR26 Rod Smith Den/4
84 81 -3 WR27 Laveranues Coles NYJ/9
85 91 6 Def1 Chicago Bears Chi/7
86 82 -4 TE8 Randy McMichael Mia/8
87 86 -1 WR28 Nate Burleson Sea/5
88 97 9 WR29 Reggie Brown Phi/9
89 80 -9 QB12 Trent Green KC/3
90 87 -3 QB13 Jake Plummer Den/4
91 95 4 WR30 Muhsin Muhammad Chi/7
92 100 8 WR31 Drew Bennett Ten/7
93 83 -10 WR32 Donte Stallworth NO/7
94 90 -4 WR33 Jerry Porter Oak/3
95 98 3 QB14 Kurt Warner Ari/9
96 101 5 WR34 Eddie Kennison KC/3
97 92 -5 QB15 Drew Brees NO/7
98 94 -4 QB16 Ben Roethlisberger Pit/4
99 96 -3 TE9 Vernon Davis SF/7
100 108 8 WR35 Koren Robinson Min/6
101 103 2 RB40 Marion Barber III Dal/3
102 106 4 TE10 Heath Miller Pit/4
103 105 2 Def2 Pittsburgh Steelers Pit/4
104 99 -5 TE11 L.J. Smith Phi/9
105 122 17 WR36 Matt Jones Jac/6
106 107 1 Def3 Carolina Panthers Car/9
126 129 3 Def4 Indianapolis Colts Ind/6
128 128 0 Def5 Baltimore Ravens Bal/7
136 136 0 Def6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers TB/4
It is not that the Bears Defense is not worth that draft pick, but it is because of the value that comes into play. In many leagues, the Bears Def finished top 30 overall. But, the Panther Defense finished real close behind and only a fraction of a point per game difference. With almost a two round difference between the Bear Defense and the Panther Defense, I will take the Panther Defense.
It seems to me that Coles is a much better value at WR27 and pick 84 than the Bears Defense is at pick 85 since Coles is at the end of a WR run and is last (or one of) WR before a dropoff.
Currently, FBG projections have:
RNK NAME/FPT
1 Carolina Panthers 161.32
2 Chicago Bears 158.08
3 Pittsburgh Steelers 157.73
4 Baltimore Ravens 147.08
5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 141.17
With the following WR ADPs, it seems that the Tampa Bay and Baltimore Team Defenses, in addition to Carolina, offer a much better value especially if you get Coles instead.
Look at the WRs with ADPs just following Coles:
ADP Player Fant pt
28 Laveranues Coles NYJ 126.8
29 Matt Jones JAX 124.0
30 Koren Robinson MIN 118.0
31 Donte Stallworth NO 117.8
32 Reggie Brown PHI 117.2
33 Michael Clayton TB 114.0
34 Joe Horn NO 112.8
35 Key Johnson CAR 111.9
36 Keenan McCardell SD 110.5
37 Jerry Porter OAK 106.3
38 Joe Jurevicius CLE 105.4
39 Ernest Wilford JAX 105.0
40 Antonio Bryant SF 103.8
41 Drew Bennett TEN 101.8
Conclusion:
The Chicago Team Defense is definitely a great scoring fantasy defense. But, it offers little value in your draft. But, Carolina, Baltimore and Tampa Bay Team Defenses, when comparing ADP and projections, offers much better value and allow you to build your team stronger in the early rounds.
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jeter23
Footballguy
I agree the Bears D is being taken way too early. I agree with wannabee's point that others, such as Carolina, offers much better value. My main problem with taking them this high is the inconsistency that team defenses often shows. Some have been solid for many years, but last year at this time, the Bills team D was being taken very high after a very good 2004 season. We all know that didn't work out too well. I would much rather take a chance on a position player that could help me like Coles or Bledsoe and get a defense at a later point. Also, I am glad to help keep this thread going while wannabee and his family enjoy their vacation. I would not claim to be as well versed as he is, but I will certainly try to help whenever I can.
jeter23
Footballguy
I want to keep wannabee's great thread going while he's away. One thing I'd like to do is look at some dynasty rosters and evaluate them. This should be a good discussion, especially for those of you who have just drafted a new team. I know there are many rookie drafts going on right now as well. Let's hear it.
I have no problems having one of my teams posted and torn apart. If one person learns something, then it would be worthwhile. I just need the go ahead from the master strategist, wannabee.
Also, my article did make it through and will be hosted, as opposed to being pinned in this thread. Sorry, wannabee, but it made the big time. When it goes up, I will drop a line.
Also, my article did make it through and will be hosted, as opposed to being pinned in this thread. Sorry, wannabee, but it made the big time. When it goes up, I will drop a line.
Jersey35
Footballguy
Hey wannabe. Appreciate you doing this! Here's my situation:
I'm in a 12 team cap-driven keeper league. We're switching over to dynasty format after this offseason, so the players I choose to keep this season will (in addition to the players I draft in August) be my dynasty team. See my sig for roster and rules.
Basically, I'm trying to decide which players to keep, for the upcoming season - especially important this year, since they'll be on my team till I don't want them anymore or I can no longer afford them.
Since we're limited by a cap, the best players to keep (IMHO) are not always the best PLAYERS on the team, since they might be overpaid. I usually try to choose the players with the best value - and try to redraft other players at better prices than I could keep them at.
Based on my evaluation, the best VALUES on my team, in this order, might be:
C.Taylor RB MIN $2
K.Jones RB DET $9
A.Johnson WR HOU $4 (I have him slightly ahead of D.Rhodes at $2)
and of course I'm stuck with Arrington as my rookie keeper
To start with, I wonder if you agree with my evaluation of my best three "veteran" keepers? Second, I've offered trades for S.Gado RB GB ($1) or M.Barber RB DAL ($1) or B.Edwards WR CLE ($5) or M.Williams WR DET ($4), thinking that any of these would be better than Arrington... thoughts?
Thanks in advance for your opinions!!
I'm in a 12 team cap-driven keeper league. We're switching over to dynasty format after this offseason, so the players I choose to keep this season will (in addition to the players I draft in August) be my dynasty team. See my sig for roster and rules.
Basically, I'm trying to decide which players to keep, for the upcoming season - especially important this year, since they'll be on my team till I don't want them anymore or I can no longer afford them.
Since we're limited by a cap, the best players to keep (IMHO) are not always the best PLAYERS on the team, since they might be overpaid. I usually try to choose the players with the best value - and try to redraft other players at better prices than I could keep them at.
Based on my evaluation, the best VALUES on my team, in this order, might be:
C.Taylor RB MIN $2
K.Jones RB DET $9
A.Johnson WR HOU $4 (I have him slightly ahead of D.Rhodes at $2)
and of course I'm stuck with Arrington as my rookie keeper
To start with, I wonder if you agree with my evaluation of my best three "veteran" keepers? Second, I've offered trades for S.Gado RB GB ($1) or M.Barber RB DAL ($1) or B.Edwards WR CLE ($5) or M.Williams WR DET ($4), thinking that any of these would be better than Arrington... thoughts?
Thanks in advance for your opinions!!
jeter23
Footballguy
Jersey, I like your initial thought of looking for the best value and Taylor, KJ and AJ certainly provide that. One concern I have though is that you are letting studs like Edge, Smith, Moss and Shockey go. Since you are going to full dynasty after this year, do you think other owners will be letting their top (and expensive) players go as well? I would think that in a normal keeper, your strategy would work very well, but this time, I think it may be more important to try and keep at least one of those guys.
Jersey35
Footballguy
We are going to dynasty AFTER the auction draft this season - so players that I drop after declaring keepers I will be able to redraft during the auction (if I want them back). My theory would be that if everyone else keeps their studs (many are overpaid by my estimation, ESPECIALLY since we've gone from 10 team to 12 team AND increased roster minimum from 14 to 20) I will have by far more $ than any other team to draft the players I want in the auction.
In fact, by going this route, I'm thinking that I position myself BEST for the dynasty aspect to follow by essentially controlling the draft with a far greater pool of resources to work with.
Just for comparison, LT2 is being kept for $84. LJ and SA are $58... if they are kept by their respective teams, next year LT would likely cost $101 and LJ/SA are looking at $70 a piece. Any of the 3 vets I've mentioned would be $10 maximum.
Does this explanation change your opinion? If not, who do you suggest I keep?
In fact, by going this route, I'm thinking that I position myself BEST for the dynasty aspect to follow by essentially controlling the draft with a far greater pool of resources to work with.
Just for comparison, LT2 is being kept for $84. LJ and SA are $58... if they are kept by their respective teams, next year LT would likely cost $101 and LJ/SA are looking at $70 a piece. Any of the 3 vets I've mentioned would be $10 maximum.
Does this explanation change your opinion? If not, who do you suggest I keep?
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Jersey35
Footballguy
Thanks. Glad to see that others are in agreement. Incidentally, based on VBD, I have LT valued at about $39 (based on 12 teams, $250 cap, and 25 man rosters). So I'm wary of a lot of the high priced guys right now - yeah, maybe they'll keep em and field a decent team for one year, but after that they'll have cap probs. I on the other hand, feel like I'll have a good solid foundation for years, and simply fill in the gaps on an annual basis with higher priced guys that get dropped.
supermark_28
Footballguy
wannabee,have a trade ? for you. i currently have lendale and have been offered pick #25 overall (1.01 in the 4th rd) in a keeper league draft,which i guess in a redraft is the 6th rd? it's a 8 team/2 keeper league and to me it doesnt seem like enough. does it seem that way to you?
supermark_28
Footballguy
sorry to throw you under the bus in the shark pool..
Hawkeyeskin
Footballguy
Don't sweat it supermark, I do it all the time!
THE UNDERCOVER BROTHA
Footballguy
Glad you back Wannabees, i got a doozy for ya:
Im doing a 12 team ppr draft right now, we start 1qb 2/3rb 3/4wr 1/2te 1k 1def 6pts for all td's
Ok i have a thread on why i drafted whom and whatnot but im at a standstill at my very next pick, which is only 2 picks away. Guys from my league also read my post so this will be difficult...but anyways here's the scoop.
I drafted these guys.
1.09 Fitz
2.04 Westy
3.08 ROY Williams
4.05 L.Maroney
4.10 L.White
I traded my 5.08 and 6.05 for 4.10 and 5.03 also with me swapping my future 1st for his future 3rd. I thought White was worth it right there. Even Maroney normally goes late 2nd or in the 3rd. So me getting both of those guys right there was a steal IMO. Ok I already knew i was gonna be rb strapped in this league by not going rb/rb with my 1st 2 picks. So i was gonna try and pile up on them. I took ROY in the 3rd cause of my target FWP was picked right before me and ROY was #1 rated left on my board.
But my question is.... DO i take another rb here at 5.03?
These are the guys that are left. Take in mind i dont pick again to 7.08.
Jamal Lewis (i dont like him in a ppr but in the 5th round is a steal....right??)
Ruben Droughans (#1 left on my board but he was #1 for a long time...I want a rb with staying power...does he have it? and he's bores me and i dont think i could deal him off and he avg 12fp/g last year...I could draft Dunn later and get better numbers)
D.Foster (still young and given the starting gig but we know the issues with him, injuries and DWill.)
T.Bell (Young also and fits my scheme but he could be great then again who knows with shanney...in the 5th rnd i think its kinda good value for him.)
T.Jones ( another rb like Foster, less injury concerns but more of a concern with getting replaced Benson was draft #4 not late 20's so they will have to play him)
And of course my natural sleeper, will mention him cause i dont have a 6th rounder.
F.Gore ( i like this guy....this maybe high right here but i really like this guy)
Guys i think that can be had later and may perform as well if not better than the picks listed above.
W.Dunn-C.Brown-Fred T. C.Dillon C.Perry K.Barlow.
That got me to thinking....should i pass on rb all together and try and get 1 later....how much more important is a guy from the group above than 1 below...i know i need a servicable rb for sure with me only having Westy really to rely on. Dillon makes alot of sense for me later....
So with that being said...
Do i pass on rb's and take the best wr/te left? Since i wont get a shot at any of those better 3/4tier wr's.
Wr's and Te's left
Gonzo
L.Evans
T.Heap
TJ Housh
D.Branch
D.Driver
D.Mason
V.Davis
Braylon E
M.Jones
M.Clayton
M.Clayton
L.Coles
R.Brown
A.Crumpler
DO i grab 1 of them and in the 7th grab me a vet rb like Dillon or fred? Or do i grab a rb now and grab a wr/te later...
Who represents the most value on the board? Value as in value to my team, dynasty trade value (precieved) and even long term dynasty value?
Im doing a 12 team ppr draft right now, we start 1qb 2/3rb 3/4wr 1/2te 1k 1def 6pts for all td's
Ok i have a thread on why i drafted whom and whatnot but im at a standstill at my very next pick, which is only 2 picks away. Guys from my league also read my post so this will be difficult...but anyways here's the scoop.
I drafted these guys.
1.09 Fitz
2.04 Westy
3.08 ROY Williams
4.05 L.Maroney
4.10 L.White
I traded my 5.08 and 6.05 for 4.10 and 5.03 also with me swapping my future 1st for his future 3rd. I thought White was worth it right there. Even Maroney normally goes late 2nd or in the 3rd. So me getting both of those guys right there was a steal IMO. Ok I already knew i was gonna be rb strapped in this league by not going rb/rb with my 1st 2 picks. So i was gonna try and pile up on them. I took ROY in the 3rd cause of my target FWP was picked right before me and ROY was #1 rated left on my board.
But my question is.... DO i take another rb here at 5.03?
These are the guys that are left. Take in mind i dont pick again to 7.08.
Jamal Lewis (i dont like him in a ppr but in the 5th round is a steal....right??)
Ruben Droughans (#1 left on my board but he was #1 for a long time...I want a rb with staying power...does he have it? and he's bores me and i dont think i could deal him off and he avg 12fp/g last year...I could draft Dunn later and get better numbers)
D.Foster (still young and given the starting gig but we know the issues with him, injuries and DWill.)
T.Bell (Young also and fits my scheme but he could be great then again who knows with shanney...in the 5th rnd i think its kinda good value for him.)
T.Jones ( another rb like Foster, less injury concerns but more of a concern with getting replaced Benson was draft #4 not late 20's so they will have to play him)
And of course my natural sleeper, will mention him cause i dont have a 6th rounder.
F.Gore ( i like this guy....this maybe high right here but i really like this guy)
Guys i think that can be had later and may perform as well if not better than the picks listed above.
W.Dunn-C.Brown-Fred T. C.Dillon C.Perry K.Barlow.
That got me to thinking....should i pass on rb all together and try and get 1 later....how much more important is a guy from the group above than 1 below...i know i need a servicable rb for sure with me only having Westy really to rely on. Dillon makes alot of sense for me later....
So with that being said...
Do i pass on rb's and take the best wr/te left? Since i wont get a shot at any of those better 3/4tier wr's.
Wr's and Te's left
Gonzo
L.Evans
T.Heap
TJ Housh
D.Branch
D.Driver
D.Mason
V.Davis
Braylon E
M.Jones
M.Clayton
M.Clayton
L.Coles
R.Brown
A.Crumpler
DO i grab 1 of them and in the 7th grab me a vet rb like Dillon or fred? Or do i grab a rb now and grab a wr/te later...
Who represents the most value on the board? Value as in value to my team, dynasty trade value (precieved) and even long term dynasty value?
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wannabee
Footballguy
I am not back, just checking in from time to time. Will be back Saturday. But, I see this as a fairly easy answer. I would either grab Heap/Gonzo or WR (Driver, Branch, Mason, or Coles) this round. Next round, I would grab Dillon to assure two RB starters.
If you want to go RB here, grab Dunn. If you grab Dunn, get Norwood later.
I am sure others will off opinions on this too. But, I think I would look for a RB starter and either WR or TE in next two rounds.
If you want to go RB here, grab Dunn. If you grab Dunn, get Norwood later.
I am sure others will off opinions on this too. But, I think I would look for a RB starter and either WR or TE in next two rounds.
wannabee
Footballguy
I will be back Saturday but will be pretty tired from a long drive. I should be back in full force on Sunday afternoon.
Congrats to WhoDat. He has a very good article on value coming out. I do hope to take his HyperActive team and analyzing it. It is a good team, so no worries.
Please feel free to post in here, Jeter is doing a good job - prob better than I would do anyway.
Congrats to WhoDat. He has a very good article on value coming out. I do hope to take his HyperActive team and analyzing it. It is a good team, so no worries.
Please feel free to post in here, Jeter is doing a good job - prob better than I would do anyway.
coolnerd
Footballguy
Jeter/wannabee,
trade and roster analysis (please) not Hyper
contract league trade
My roster
Sacrificial Lambs - Sylvester F
Boller, Kyle BAL QB -
Campbell, Jason WAS QB -
Johnson, Brad MIN QB -
Plummer, Jake DEN QB -
Anderson, Mike BAL RB -
Brown, Ronnie MIA RB -
Daniels, P.J. BAL RB -
Duckett, T.J. ATL RB -
Haynes, Verron PIT RB -
Jacobs, Brandon NYG RB -
Jones, Julius DAL RB -
Clayton, Michael TBB WR -
Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR -
Givens, David TEN WR -
Jurevicius, Joe CLE WR -
McCardell, Keenan SDC WR -
Stokley, Brandon IND WR -
Walker, Javon DEN WR -
Franks, Bubba GBP TE -
Smith, Alex TBB TE -
Witten, Jason DAL TE -
Brown, Josh SEA PK -
Lindell, Rian BUF PK -
Falcons, Atlanta ATL Def -
Steelers, Pittsburgh PIT Def
taxi squad
Lundi
Robinson
Standard scoring (no ppr) top wr ranked 19th in total scoring 2005
start qB, 2 RB, 3WR, TE, DEF, K
I give: Ronnie Brown , Fitz , Luni, 2007 1st rookie
I get: LJ,Priest, Roy Williams , 2007 2nd rookie
Notes: all of the key players have long term (3 plus years) contracts, but Johnson $number is excellent 1.6 million versus Brown 2.2 mllion. WRs closer Fitz 1.0 million versus 1.3 for roy will.
Breakdown the trade and the effect on my team as you see it.
trade and roster analysis (please) not Hyper
contract league trade
My roster
Sacrificial Lambs - Sylvester F
Boller, Kyle BAL QB -
Campbell, Jason WAS QB -
Johnson, Brad MIN QB -
Plummer, Jake DEN QB -
Anderson, Mike BAL RB -
Brown, Ronnie MIA RB -
Daniels, P.J. BAL RB -
Duckett, T.J. ATL RB -
Haynes, Verron PIT RB -
Jacobs, Brandon NYG RB -
Jones, Julius DAL RB -
Clayton, Michael TBB WR -
Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR -
Givens, David TEN WR -
Jurevicius, Joe CLE WR -
McCardell, Keenan SDC WR -
Stokley, Brandon IND WR -
Walker, Javon DEN WR -
Franks, Bubba GBP TE -
Smith, Alex TBB TE -
Witten, Jason DAL TE -
Brown, Josh SEA PK -
Lindell, Rian BUF PK -
Falcons, Atlanta ATL Def -
Steelers, Pittsburgh PIT Def
taxi squad
Lundi
Robinson
Standard scoring (no ppr) top wr ranked 19th in total scoring 2005
start qB, 2 RB, 3WR, TE, DEF, K
I give: Ronnie Brown , Fitz , Luni, 2007 1st rookie
I get: LJ,Priest, Roy Williams , 2007 2nd rookie
Notes: all of the key players have long term (3 plus years) contracts, but Johnson $number is excellent 1.6 million versus Brown 2.2 mllion. WRs closer Fitz 1.0 million versus 1.3 for roy will.
Breakdown the trade and the effect on my team as you see it.
carson to chad
Footballguy
New startup dynasty --- doing slow draft now
12 owners
start 1 qb, 2 rb, 3 wr, 1 flex, 1 te
standard scoring except all td's 6 pts and one ppr for all players
Trying to obtain Lamont Jordan thru a trade...
MY TEAM so far
QB Delhomme
RB Portis
RB Benson
RB Bell
WR Fitz
WR Holt
WR Drew Bennett
WR Burleson -- other owner likes him
TE Vernon Davis
HIS
QB Bledsoe
RB LJ
RB Jordan
RB Thomas Jones
RB Rhodes
WR Brown Philly
WR Braylon Edwards
WR Chad Jackson
TE Winslow
Problem is that Fitz and Holt each score about same as Jordan in ppr
Anything i can offer to help our teams
Starting lineup of 2 RB 4 WR or 3 RB 3 WR
12 owners
start 1 qb, 2 rb, 3 wr, 1 flex, 1 te
standard scoring except all td's 6 pts and one ppr for all players
Trying to obtain Lamont Jordan thru a trade...
MY TEAM so far
QB Delhomme
RB Portis
RB Benson
RB Bell
WR Fitz
WR Holt
WR Drew Bennett
WR Burleson -- other owner likes him
TE Vernon Davis
HIS
QB Bledsoe
RB LJ
RB Jordan
RB Thomas Jones
RB Rhodes
WR Brown Philly
WR Braylon Edwards
WR Chad Jackson
TE Winslow
Problem is that Fitz and Holt each score about same as Jordan in ppr
Anything i can offer to help our teams
Starting lineup of 2 RB 4 WR or 3 RB 3 WR
wannabee
Footballguy
I have a few minutes to look at this, but would still like to hear Jeter's reply, too.
Here is my quick breakdown. Will follow up, hopefully, later on (maybe Sat) since I will be driving a ton tomorrow.
I will assume 12 teamer.
Anderson, Mike BAL RB -
Brown, Ronnie MIA RB -
Daniels, P.J. BAL RB -
Duckett, T.J. ATL RB -
Haynes, Verron PIT RB -
Jacobs, Brandon NYG RB -
Jones, Julius DAL RB -
Since you start 2 RBs, your RBs would go from Brown/Julius to LJ/Julius. Obviously, I think that this is a huge upgrade. The loss of Lundy should not hurt, but who knows with the Texan RB situation. Your depth is not affected. You have four solid backup RBs, and I assume one will be productive this year - probably either Anderson or Haynes.
So BIG net gain at RB, imo. I would suspect that this is approximately a 8-10 ppg gain. And, you do not lose much youth at RB. LJ averaged almost 30 ppg per start in my non-PPR league last year. Even if that number is 25 ppg, I feel confident of the 8-10 ppg difference. In an earlier post, I theorized that rookie RBs' value peaks after rookie year. I think this is definitely a sell high for Brown.
Clayton, Michael TBB WR -
Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR -
Givens, David TEN WR -
Jurevicius, Joe CLE WR -
McCardell, Keenan SDC WR -
Stokley, Brandon IND WR -
Walker, Javon DEN WR -
Since you start 3 WRs each week, your WR depth is a strength, imo. Your starters would go from Fitz/Jurevicius/and Walker, Clayton, or Keenen. Keenan is getting older and is 36, iirc. So, he only has probably this year left. On a good note is Walker. Yes, it may take him this year to get acclimated, but I suspect Rod Smith only has another year or two left. So, with this trade, I see Walker and Williams as your must start WRs for many years. Losing Fitz as an anchor might hurt only because he is steady. But, who knows what the addition of Edge my change?
With this trade, I think your WRs will need to get younger. Stokely, Keenan, Jurevicius, and Givens will all need to be upgraded over the next couple of years, imo. I see Clayton being the guy that either makes your WRs a strength this year, or not.
In non-PPR leagues, the drop from Fitz to Roy is not that large. I see a drop of about 3-5 points per game from Fitz to Roy. Many are much higher on Roy than I am, but he does catch a lot of TDs, and gets improvements this offseason at QB and OC.
The key for Roy is, and probably always will be, is health.
I like this trade for you. I do not think you lose all that much at WR. Also, with this team (and LJ) your first rounder will not be that high anyway.
My thoughts on each player:
Brown: overvalued (though, not as much as Caddy) because he showed flashes in limited duty during 2005. I think this is the time to "sell high" on Brown. I see his value, long term, as about that as Willis - yes, I know that will cause some hate PMs. Also, I am anxious to see if the miracle Houck did on the OLine is for real. I think it has a chance to be a mirage. In addition, Culpepper might vulture a couple of TDs each year. I do think the Dolphins will pass more this year than last. Also, as many know, Brown has yet to prove he can carry the full load for an entire season.
LJ: Stud RB that is a top 2 dynasty player by most rankings. Many think the addition of Herm might hurt LJ, I think it will help LJ and hurt Green/Kennison the most. Herm is a conservative run-first coach. The Chief OLine is aging, but still has another year, or three, left in the majority of them. I am also anxious to see if Turley can come back and help at tackle. This would ease some concerns.
Fitz: He has been a stud in his two years in the league. But, I think last year was the best we will see from he because the Cardinals threw the ball 670 times and only ran it 360 times. Having 670 passes will inflate the numbers some. I also think the Cardinal offense will underperform expectations this year. Most predict a Warner injury. I am uncertain as to whether Leinart or Navarre can lead this team in 2006. Next year? Sure. Also, the addition of Edge should limit pass attempts, targets, and probably TDs. I think Edge will drop Fitz and Boldin's numbers about 10%. But, the big affect should be on Rackers. As long as Warner is healthy, I do not see that huge number of FG attempts like last year.
Roy: The guy has stud potential. My fear with him is that he seems to be perenially teasing fantasy owners with great plays - then he gets nicked up or disappears. I do not know how much blame to place on Roy, Joey, or the former coaching staff. The good news is the change in QBs, from Joey to Kitna, should stabilize things some. I see better passes to Roy. I hope this translates into more easy catches and fewer great grabs like he has shown us from time to time. Also, I think Martz is an upgrade. He knows how to get his WR the ball. Also, there seems to be little competition for balls in Detroit. The two highly touted rook WRs are both having problems adjusting to the NFL. He has been injury-prone and will need to stay healthy to achive the level he needs to.
Hope this helps
Here is my quick breakdown. Will follow up, hopefully, later on (maybe Sat) since I will be driving a ton tomorrow.
I will assume 12 teamer.
Anderson, Mike BAL RB -
Brown, Ronnie MIA RB -
Daniels, P.J. BAL RB -
Duckett, T.J. ATL RB -
Haynes, Verron PIT RB -
Jacobs, Brandon NYG RB -
Jones, Julius DAL RB -
Since you start 2 RBs, your RBs would go from Brown/Julius to LJ/Julius. Obviously, I think that this is a huge upgrade. The loss of Lundy should not hurt, but who knows with the Texan RB situation. Your depth is not affected. You have four solid backup RBs, and I assume one will be productive this year - probably either Anderson or Haynes.
So BIG net gain at RB, imo. I would suspect that this is approximately a 8-10 ppg gain. And, you do not lose much youth at RB. LJ averaged almost 30 ppg per start in my non-PPR league last year. Even if that number is 25 ppg, I feel confident of the 8-10 ppg difference. In an earlier post, I theorized that rookie RBs' value peaks after rookie year. I think this is definitely a sell high for Brown.
Clayton, Michael TBB WR -
Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR -
Givens, David TEN WR -
Jurevicius, Joe CLE WR -
McCardell, Keenan SDC WR -
Stokley, Brandon IND WR -
Walker, Javon DEN WR -
Since you start 3 WRs each week, your WR depth is a strength, imo. Your starters would go from Fitz/Jurevicius/and Walker, Clayton, or Keenen. Keenan is getting older and is 36, iirc. So, he only has probably this year left. On a good note is Walker. Yes, it may take him this year to get acclimated, but I suspect Rod Smith only has another year or two left. So, with this trade, I see Walker and Williams as your must start WRs for many years. Losing Fitz as an anchor might hurt only because he is steady. But, who knows what the addition of Edge my change?
With this trade, I think your WRs will need to get younger. Stokely, Keenan, Jurevicius, and Givens will all need to be upgraded over the next couple of years, imo. I see Clayton being the guy that either makes your WRs a strength this year, or not.
In non-PPR leagues, the drop from Fitz to Roy is not that large. I see a drop of about 3-5 points per game from Fitz to Roy. Many are much higher on Roy than I am, but he does catch a lot of TDs, and gets improvements this offseason at QB and OC.
The key for Roy is, and probably always will be, is health.
I like this trade for you. I do not think you lose all that much at WR. Also, with this team (and LJ) your first rounder will not be that high anyway.
My thoughts on each player:
Brown: overvalued (though, not as much as Caddy) because he showed flashes in limited duty during 2005. I think this is the time to "sell high" on Brown. I see his value, long term, as about that as Willis - yes, I know that will cause some hate PMs. Also, I am anxious to see if the miracle Houck did on the OLine is for real. I think it has a chance to be a mirage. In addition, Culpepper might vulture a couple of TDs each year. I do think the Dolphins will pass more this year than last. Also, as many know, Brown has yet to prove he can carry the full load for an entire season.
LJ: Stud RB that is a top 2 dynasty player by most rankings. Many think the addition of Herm might hurt LJ, I think it will help LJ and hurt Green/Kennison the most. Herm is a conservative run-first coach. The Chief OLine is aging, but still has another year, or three, left in the majority of them. I am also anxious to see if Turley can come back and help at tackle. This would ease some concerns.
Fitz: He has been a stud in his two years in the league. But, I think last year was the best we will see from he because the Cardinals threw the ball 670 times and only ran it 360 times. Having 670 passes will inflate the numbers some. I also think the Cardinal offense will underperform expectations this year. Most predict a Warner injury. I am uncertain as to whether Leinart or Navarre can lead this team in 2006. Next year? Sure. Also, the addition of Edge should limit pass attempts, targets, and probably TDs. I think Edge will drop Fitz and Boldin's numbers about 10%. But, the big affect should be on Rackers. As long as Warner is healthy, I do not see that huge number of FG attempts like last year.
Roy: The guy has stud potential. My fear with him is that he seems to be perenially teasing fantasy owners with great plays - then he gets nicked up or disappears. I do not know how much blame to place on Roy, Joey, or the former coaching staff. The good news is the change in QBs, from Joey to Kitna, should stabilize things some. I see better passes to Roy. I hope this translates into more easy catches and fewer great grabs like he has shown us from time to time. Also, I think Martz is an upgrade. He knows how to get his WR the ball. Also, there seems to be little competition for balls in Detroit. The two highly touted rook WRs are both having problems adjusting to the NFL. He has been injury-prone and will need to stay healthy to achive the level he needs to.
Hope this helps
wannabee
Footballguy
In PPR leagues, I value Holt over Fitz, which is different than most others. In addition, Fitz carries more market value. If you really want Jordan, I would throw something out like:Holt, Bennett, and Burleson for Jordan, Edwards and Reggie Brown
I think Jordan is worth more than those WRs in PPR since lower ranked WRs can succeed in PPR like Mason, Coles, and Driver. In PPR, it seems the player values are all over the place so you may not like this deal, but I chose it since you can start three RBs, and I think highly of Brown in dynasty and think Edwards has good value, too. The thing is that both Brown and Edwards are/will be WR1 for their teams while Bennett and Buleson are WR2.
Hope this helps.
jeter23
Footballguy
Sorry, I've been swamped the past couple of days. I really like this deal for you, considering WRs are not quite as important as far as scoring potential. You also have the WR depth for this year to handle losing Fitz. I do agree with wannabee that you will need to upgrade your WR corps pretty soon. You have several guys that will help this year, but could quickly lose value. Actually, I agree alomst completely with wannabee as far as the trade and player breakdown. My only concern is Williams' injury history. Even with that, I love the chance to get LJ, especially since he is cheaper than Brown. What is Holmes' cap number and could you cut him w/o penalty?
coolnerd
Footballguy
Thanks guys as you are looking at this pretty close to how I am. My long term Wrs (Clayton, williams, Walker) have ifs so I am little worried. Givens and Stokley are both only under 1 year contracts, and the other two are legimately old so I will be looking around for replacements as you have presumed. My biggest concern with trading the one was stocking WR/getting another RB as my back-ups at RB are kinda like the depth at WR can probably get through this year, but...not so much long term. As for Holmes he is under a 600 K 1 year contract. There is a 20% guarantee on the salary so cutting him would cost $120,000 and I am decent cap shape.
supermark_28
Footballguy
scoring system: 8 pts per rushing/receiving td. 1 pt per 10 yds rushing/receivingi have received 2 offers:1) sjax/veterans pick 1.05 and 4.05 (all the top receivers
will be available at 5.) 2) LT/veterans pick 1.06 for LJ/veterans pick 2.04 and
lendale white (this deal could also be changed to swap lower picks and not
include lendale). am i jumping ship to fast? the age of the o-line was already
scaring me,wasnt too concerned when trich left but how much higher will his
value be in a keeper league? i currently have SA as a keeper and own the #1
overall pick which i'll take peyton with. thanks ahead of time..
Hey wannabe,
I have a couple of questions that I wanted to ask before my upcoming dynasty draft. It is a 12 team dynasty PPR league. Start 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1FLEX (RB, WR, TE). First off I was offered the 1.05, 1.06, Eli Manning, and Chester Taylor for the 1.02 Pick. I am leaning towards taking this offer. See team below.
My team:
QB
Roethlisburger
Philip Rivers
RB
Larry Johnson
Willie Parker
Duce Stayley
Vernon Haynes
WR
Roy Williams
Chris Chambers
Hines Ward
Lee Evans
Charles Rogers
Chris Henry
Brandon Jones
TE
Randy McMichael
Bubba Franks
Draft Picks
1.01
1.02
1.03
Second, I am pretty sure that the owner is wanting Addai with the 1.02. This will leave me to choose between Williams and Maroney for the 1.03, Lendale White with the 1.05 and probably Vernon Davis with 1.06. Who do you think is the better option between Williams and Maroney? Thanks
Brad
I have a couple of questions that I wanted to ask before my upcoming dynasty draft. It is a 12 team dynasty PPR league. Start 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1FLEX (RB, WR, TE). First off I was offered the 1.05, 1.06, Eli Manning, and Chester Taylor for the 1.02 Pick. I am leaning towards taking this offer. See team below.
My team:
QB
Roethlisburger
Philip Rivers
RB
Larry Johnson
Willie Parker
Duce Stayley
Vernon Haynes
WR
Roy Williams
Chris Chambers
Hines Ward
Lee Evans
Charles Rogers
Chris Henry
Brandon Jones
TE
Randy McMichael
Bubba Franks
Draft Picks
1.01
1.02
1.03
Second, I am pretty sure that the owner is wanting Addai with the 1.02. This will leave me to choose between Williams and Maroney for the 1.03, Lendale White with the 1.05 and probably Vernon Davis with 1.06. Who do you think is the better option between Williams and Maroney? Thanks
Brad
wannabee
Footballguy
I agree with Jeter here on LT. see LJ and LT as relatively even.On the Sjax deal, which players do you project to be available at 1.05? I know you say th etop wr2, but does this mean every wr including TO? This is the big question for me.
Who is your other keeper in addition to LJ?
I would seioursly think about the SJax deal if it could land SJax and TO.
wannabee
Footballguy
Hey Brad, I am in agreement with Jeter. I would do that deal ASAP. That is a great deal for you. I think you are spot on with taking White and Davis, just be patient with Davis. I think it will take a year or two for him to be a viable fantasy player.
On Maroney vs Williams, I have been debating this on myself. They both are signed and are currently behind an injury-prone veteran.
I hear that most consider Williams to have more talent, but I also hear how Car may want to use a short yardage RB, too, which could limit upside.
On Maroney, I look to how well MB3 did his rookie year and am encouraged. Maroney is a bigger RB, who played in a bigger conference than Williams.
I am torn on this one and do not have a great feel either way. I will watch and read the reports and let you know as things evolve.
supermark_28
Footballguy
wannabee,as of now i have SA and LJ. mbIII is my 05 rookie and lendale andVD are my 06 rookies. the LT deal,would essentially be a straight up deal w/
the LT owner and i "potentially" swapping picks (ie- me getting 1.06 for 2.04).
the sjax deal involves me giving up LJ and 2.04 for sjax/1.05 and 4.04 or 4.05.
i already have the 1.01 pick,which i'll take manning with. the owners who have
picks 1.02/1.03 and 1.04 are all desperate for rb's so will most likely go w/ the
best available rb's (ctaylor,droughns,julius and kevin jones) which will leave me
w/ a crack at "potentially" landing fitz,TO,holt,chadj,essentially a top 5 wr.
i have also made offers for portis and ronnieb. the portis offer was similiar to
the LT offer and the ronnieb offer was LJ and 3.08 for ronnieb,1.08 and 1.09
(which would give me as keepers: manning/SA/ronnieb and veteran picks:
1.01/1.08/1.09/2.04... sorry for the length...
