Warrick Dunn = Value (1 Viewer)

[coolnerd]

Dunn is really a situational player for me in that it all depends on the league. Some leagues/situations require more upside out of players than others.

Dunn = safe numbers, but he's missing some upside.

It really just depends on the league IMHO.

Dunn sort of the "old and boring" of RB like Jimmy smith is in WRs...Never want to reach for him or draft him as more than your 3rd or even your 4th...also, has more value to a guy who did not go RB/RB at the top of the draft, who needs boring, but solid performance because of his draft strategy.

 

[wilked]

Dunn is really a situational player for me in that it all depends on the league.  Some leagues/situations require more upside out of players than others.

Dunn = safe numbers, but he's missing some upside.

It really just depends on the league IMHO.

Dunn sort of the "old and boring" of RB like Jimmy smith is in WRs...Never want to reach for him or draft him as more than your 3rd or even your 4th...also, has more value to a guy who did not go RB/RB at the top of the draft, who needs boring, but solid performance because of his draft strategy.

I would suggest that with injuries being as common as they are, everyone can use a RB4 who puts up double digit fantasy numbers 11 weeks of the year

 

[LHUCKS]

Dunn is really a situational player for me in that it all depends on the league.  Some leagues/situations require more upside out of players than others.

Dunn = safe numbers, but he's missing some upside.

It really just depends on the league IMHO.

Dunn sort of the "old and boring" of RB like Jimmy smith is in WRs...Never want to reach for him or draft him as more than your 3rd or even your 4th...also, has more value to a guy who did not go RB/RB at the top of the draft, who needs boring, but solid performance because of his draft strategy.

exactly

 

[Tau837]

just to add some more fuel to the fire - dunn's finish at 19 in 2002 was also due in part to duckett missing time - here's dunn's point totals from the games duckett missed in 2002:

20.3

11.9

22.9

8.1

if duckett stays healthy, dunn will finish at RB20 AT BEST - Dunn was only able to finish at RB15 last year because Duckett was only healthy enough to get 104 carries - a little over half of what TJ got in 2003 when Duckett played in all 16 games.

Three points here.1. Dunn & Duckett have been in Atlanta for 3 years. IMO it isn't particularly relevant how Dunn performed in Tampa.

In 2 of 3 years, Dunn finished as a top 20 RB. In 2 of 3 years, Duckett has missed 4 games. Both trends are good for Dunn. There is some serious twisting of the facts going on in this thread to make Dunn's performance in Atlanta look worse than it was.

2. In the one year in Atlanta when he did not finish in the top 20, Dunn was RB12 at the time he got hurt. So in all 3 seasons he has performed at a top 20 level while on the field.

3. You discount Dunn's performances in 2002 & 2004 because Duckett missed time but then use the one instance when Duckett played 16 games in Duckett's favor while failing to mention that Dunn missed 5 games that season (2003). How convenient.

In 2003, Duckett had 101 carries in the first 11 games, with Dunn playing. An average of 9.2 per game. In the 5 games Dunn missed, Duckett had 96 carries, an average of 21.2 per game. Oh and by the way, he averaged 3.7 ypc in those games, compared to Dunn's 5.4 ypc that season.

How does this evidence support an argument against Dunn's ability to be a top 15-20 back this season?

 

[Tau837]

there is every indication that he won't get a lot of goal-line looks.

Please elaborate on this.Here is a post I made previously that touches on their roles last season:

Checking the FBG Player Pages reveals more about last season.First off, here are there carries for 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th/OTunn: 78, 59, 76, 50Duckett: 15, 22, 17, 50So, while Duckett got more "closing" carries, it was an even split with Dunn. There are other factors to consider.Leading bigunn: 31Duckett: 40Leading closeunn: 84Duckett: 26Tiedunn: 79Duckett: 9Trailing closeunn: 37Duckett: 20Trailing bigunn: 32Duckett: 9So in close game situations, Dunn had 200 carries and Duckett had 55. When leading or trailing big, the gap was very close: Dunn 63, Duckett 49.That is pretty revealing IMO, though it is hard to use as a fantasy predictor unless you can predict how often Atlanta will be in close game situations. Still, I would say it is less of a closer role than a mop up role. It apparently just so happened that many wide margin game situations were in the 4th quarter, which is logical.Also:In winsunn: 182 (16.5 carries per game)Duckett: 85 (9.4 carries per game)In lossesunn: 83 (16.6 carries per game)Duckett: 19 (6.3 carries per game)So Duckett got the majority of his carries in wins... so it really does look like a lot of his work was mopping up in lopsided games in the 4th quarter. Meanwhile, Dunn's carries were consistent.More good info:Goal line (5 or closer) carriesunn: 9 for 5 TDsDuckett: 11 for 6 TDsRed zone carriesunn: 39 for 8 TDsDuckett: 19 for 6 TDsI don't see any reason from these numbers for anyone to assume that Duckett will be the goal line back. It isn't ideal for Dunn (or Duckett I suppose) that the goal line carries and TDs were split evenly, but I suspect some may be surprised that it was even.All of this data gives me more confidence in Dunn this year. He performed well, so unless he breaks down, I see no reason for his role to be reduced.The only note of caution to me is his low reception total last year. I was high on Dunn last preseason because I expected him to be a big beneficiary of the WCO passing game. He turned out to be good more because of his unexpectedly good rushing totals. He only had 29 receptions for 294 yards and 0 TDs. Good ypr, but overall lower receiving production than I expected. Many in this thread are predicting a good deal more than that this year, but I'm not sure what would cause that change... I expect Vick to improve, but more in the area of midfield and downfield passing, not dumpoffs to Dunn.

What do you expect to change to make Duckett more valuable?

 

[David Yudkin]

I think many are confusing that RB2 production from a 5th round pick does not have to equal RB2 production from a 2nd round pick.If someone truly intends to play Dunn as a fantasy RB, that essentially would mean the team should be stacked elsewhere. For ha-has, lets say that any of the following happened.1.07 Deuce2.06 Culpepper3.07 Gonzalez4.06 Steve Smith5.07 Dunn1.04 Edge2.09 Holt3.04 McNabb4.09 Burleson5.04 Dunn1.06 Manning2.07 RJohnson3.06 JWalker4.07 Clayton5.06 DunnIn all those examples, the rest of the team is extremely sound (and not too far off from their current ADPs). Add in a Favre or a Collins to the first team in the 6th and a Boldin or Drive in the 7th and that team would rock.1.07 Deuce2.06 Culpepper3.07 Gonzalez4.06 Steve Smith5.07 Dunn6.06 Collins7.07 DriverGive me that team, and I could live with Dunn as a RB2. And the next round you could take Duckett, so if either guy got hurt you would automatically get the extra value in the other.People often forget that just because you end up with a guy that might not be ideal, the value at other positions can easily offset the fact that Dunn doesn't have Top 5 potential.

 

[wilked]

Some good knowledge being dropped by JWBDunn is not an "exciting" player, does not get much "hype", and thus the "sharks" pass on him

 

[LHUCKS]

I think many are confusing that RB2 production from a 5th round pick does not have to equal RB2 production from a 2nd round pick.

If someone truly intends to play Dunn as a fantasy RB, that essentially would mean the team should be stacked elsewhere. For ha-has, lets say that any of the following happened.

1.07 Deuce

2.06 Culpepper

3.07 Gonzalez

4.06 Steve Smith

5.07 Dunn

1.04 Edge

2.09 Holt

3.04 McNabb

4.09 Burleson

5.04 Dunn

1.06 Manning

2.07 RJohnson

3.06 JWalker

4.07 Clayton

5.06 Dunn

In all those examples, the rest of the team is extremely sound (and not too far off from their current ADPs). Add in a Favre or a Collins to the first team in the 6th and a Boldin or Drive in the 7th and that team would rock.

1.07 Deuce

2.06 Culpepper

3.07 Gonzalez

4.06 Steve Smith

5.07 Dunn

6.06 Collins

7.07 Driver

Give me that team, and I could live with Dunn as a RB2. And the next round you could take Duckett, so if either guy got hurt you would automatically get the extra value in the other.

People often forget that just because you end up with a guy that might not be ideal, the value at other positions can easily offset the fact that Dunn doesn't have Top 5 potential.

 

[jurb26]

I think many are confusing that RB2 production from a 5th round pick does not have to equal RB2 production from a 2nd round pick.

If someone truly intends to play Dunn as a fantasy RB, that essentially would mean the team should be stacked elsewhere.  For ha-has, lets say that any of the following happened.

1.07 Deuce

2.06 Culpepper

3.07 Gonzalez

4.06 Steve Smith

5.07 Dunn

1.04 Edge

2.09 Holt

3.04 McNabb

4.09 Burleson

5.04 Dunn

1.06 Manning

2.07 RJohnson

3.06 JWalker

4.07 Clayton

5.06 Dunn

In all those examples, the rest of the team is extremely sound (and not too far off from their current ADPs).  Add in a Favre or a Collins to the first team in the 6th and a Boldin or Drive in the 7th and that team would rock.

1.07 Deuce

2.06 Culpepper

3.07 Gonzalez

4.06 Steve Smith

5.07 Dunn

6.06 Collins

7.07 Driver

Give me that team, and I could live with Dunn as a RB2.  And the next round you could take Duckett, so if either guy got hurt you would automatically get the extra value in the other.

People often forget that just because you end up with a guy that might not be ideal, the value at other positions can easily offset the fact that Dunn doesn't have Top 5 potential.

The major potential problem with these teams is what would happen IF your RB1 went down. Most FFers are not comfortable with RB2s that are ONLY RB2s with no upside to become more. That is what Dunn is and that is why there is always value in drafting him... limited upside. Dunn can not handle the responsibility of playing up to a RB1 and most owners will tell you they don't want a RB1 and RB2. They want 2 RB1s! Or at least a guy who is boarderline and can offer a RB1 potential. If your comfortble with having a true RB2 and filling in other postions, Dunn is a fantastic pick. Fact is though, not many FFers are comfortable with this startagy. RBs get hurt. Its just a fact of playing.

 

[wilked]

at jurbOf course everyone wants two RB1s. Most of the time, though, you draft for potential and you end up with Trung Canidate, Justin Fargas, and Deshaun Foster. Give me a sure RB2 in the fifth round and I will scoop him up every time

 

[jurb26]

at jurb

Of course everyone wants two RB1s. Most of the time, though, you draft for potential and you end up with Trung Canidate, Justin Fargas, and Deshaun Foster. Give me a sure RB2 in the fifth round and I will scoop him up every time

...and when did I disagree with that.

 

[David Yudkin]

The major potential problem with these teams is what would happen IF your RB1 went down. Most FFers are not comfortable with RB2s that are ONLY RB2s with no upside to become more. That is what Dunn is and that is why there is always value in drafting him... limited upside. Dunn can not handle the responsibility of playing up to a RB1 and most owners will tell you they don't want a RB1 and RB2. They want 2 RB1s! Or at least a guy who is boarderline and can offer a RB1 potential. If your comfortble with having a true RB2 and filling in other postions, Dunn is a fantastic pick. Fact is though, not many FFers are comfortable with this startagy. RBs get hurt. Its just a fact of playing.

Let's look at where jurb is sending us instead.1.07 Deuce2.06 RJohnson3.07 CBrown4.06 SSmith5.07 JPorter6.06 BFavre7.07 PBurressThis is a much more traditional strategy and would also be a good team (without Dunn). So Deuce goes down for the season (as was the example). You still lose a Top 10 RB but now have to hope Brown can stay healthy. If you didn't like Brown, you could have had one of the rookie backs or Fred Taylor, as that what was available for RB3s.But the rest of the team is weaker everywhere else. Favre won't be a Top 3 QB. THe WRs will be weaker. And there's no TE anywhere near the quality of Gonazlez out there. So yes, there is more depth at RB, but you may have sacrificed a lot at WR 1, QB, and TE.All I'm saying is that the guy available as the third RB may not be all that move valuable than Dunn and will likely come with as many ??? or more than Dunn has.IMO, it's worth going RB-RB-RB if the backs are worth taking. I wouldn't go Jackson, Jordan, Ronnie Brown, as I am not convinced any one of those guys will be more than a RB2. But I might go LT, Westbrook, Martin if I really had a desire to load up on guys that should be assured of playing and doing well.

 

[H.K.]

The old HK "look what he did 7 years ago when he wasn't the starter!" argument. Priceless. Please post only his years as a fulltime starter for the NYG.

ETA: And do it in a thread about Tiki Barber.

Over-simplifying things a little bit aren't you? As for the subject at hand, I agree that Dunn is a good value selection based on his current ADP.

 

[Callas Disregard]

at jurb

Of course everyone wants two RB1s.  Most of the time, though, you draft for potential and you end up with Trung Canidate, Justin Fargas, and Deshaun Foster.  Give me a sure RB2 in the fifth round and I will scoop him up every time

And Kevan Barlow, Stacey Mack, Troy Hambrick, Thomas Jones, Onterrio Smith, Artose Pinner, Tony Hollings...The list goes on and on. This is why I have become somewhat risk averse in FF drafting. Guys that are tagged as "high risk/reward" guys seem to end up bombing far more often than succeeding. It really depends on which roster spot I'm drafting: a projected starter or primary backup is going to be a safe value pick with limited upside, like Dunn. With a secondary backup, I'm more likely to roll the dice a bit. Thus, if we start 2 RBs and I'm drafting RB3, Dunn is the type of player I'll turn to, whereas if I'm drafting RB4 I might try for the home run.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

there is every indication that he won't get a lot of goal-line looks.

Please elaborate on this.Here is a post I made previously that touches on their roles last season:

Checking the FBG Player Pages reveals more about last season.

First off, here are there carries for 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th/OT:

Dunn: 78, 59, 76, 50

Duckett:  15, 22, 17, 50

So, while Duckett got more "closing" carries, it was an even split with Dunn.  There are other factors to consider.

Leading big:

Dunn: 31

Duckett: 40

Leading close:

Dunn: 84

Duckett: 26

Tied:

Dunn: 79

Duckett: 9

Trailing close:

Dunn: 37

Duckett: 20

Trailing big:

Dunn: 32

Duckett: 9

So in close game situations, Dunn had 200 carries and Duckett had 55.  When leading or trailing big, the gap was very close:  Dunn 63, Duckett 49.

That is pretty revealing IMO, though it is hard to use as a fantasy predictor unless you can predict how often Atlanta will be in close game situations.  Still, I would say it is less of a closer role than a mop up role.  It apparently just so happened that many wide margin game situations were in the 4th quarter, which is logical.

Also:

In wins:

Dunn: 182 (16.5 carries per game)

Duckett: 85 (9.4 carries per game)

In losses:

Dunn: 83 (16.6 carries per game)

Duckett: 19 (6.3 carries per game)

So Duckett got the majority of his carries in wins... so it really does look like a lot of his work was mopping up in lopsided games in the 4th quarter.  Meanwhile, Dunn's carries were consistent.

More good info:

Goal line (5 or closer) carries:

Dunn: 9 for 5 TDs

Duckett: 11 for 6 TDs

Red zone carries:

Dunn: 39 for 8 TDs

Duckett: 19 for 6 TDs

I don't see any reason from these numbers for anyone to assume that Duckett will be the goal line back.  It isn't ideal for Dunn (or Duckett I suppose) that the goal line carries and TDs were split evenly, but I suspect some may be surprised that it was even.

All of this data gives me more confidence in Dunn this year.  He performed well, so unless he breaks down, I see no reason for his role to be reduced.

The only note of caution to me is his low reception total last year.  I was high on Dunn last preseason because I expected him to be a big beneficiary of the WCO passing game.  He turned out to be good more because of his unexpectedly good rushing totals.  He only had 29 receptions for 294 yards and 0 TDs.  Good ypr, but overall lower receiving production than I expected.  Many in this thread are predicting a good deal more than that this year, but I'm not sure what would cause that change... I expect Vick to improve, but more in the area of midfield and downfield passing, not dumpoffs to Dunn.

What do you expect to change to make Duckett more valuable?

It's simple. When healthy, Duckett is a terrific goal-line back. Dunn is very good for a smaller guy, and if Duckett weren't around, I think he would do just fine as a goal-line runner. But if Duckett is available, most of the time, he will get the rock on the stripe. Duckett had more goal-line carries (and TDs) than Dunn last year when he appeared in only 12 games (11 really) and had only 104 carries. I think the breaking point was the Oakland game, where Dunn was REPLACED by Duckett in goal-line situations on three different occasions (and Duckett scored every time). In all three situations, Dunn was in the game until Atlanta got into goal-line terriotry where he was replaced. I believe we will see a lot more of that in the future.

 

[FFFIEND]

It is hard to take a RB to high where 12 of his starts last season the guy ran for less than 80 yards on the ground.  In 5 of those starts he ran for 50 yards or less.  The guy is not getting any younger and T.J. Duckett will be more of a TD vulture this year ala Staley and Bettis situation.  Dunn's ranking last year is a tad misleading IMO, he had 9 TD's which was his best year as a pro, so to assume him to even or surpass this total this up coming year is wishing.  I think it is fair to give him 5 TD's which is a little over his career avg.  I despise inconsistency in my fantasy players especially in the RB position, therefore Dunn is valued as an RB 3 IMO not an RB 2. Tiki is a way more consistent producer then Dunn and is undervalued.  Dunn is inconsistent and gets drafted low due to this inconsistency.  In fact, his whole career has been a fluctuation of inconsistency.  One year he will surpass the 1000 yard total and then the following year he will run for 400 yds or 600 yards.  Inconsitency is not welcomed on my fantasy teams.

This is a very misinformed posting"It is hard to take a RB to high where 12 of his starts last season the guy ran for less than 80 yards on the ground. "

Good thing 95% of us play in leagues that reward for receiving yards Dunn hit double digits in fantasy points 11 times last season, compare that to other 'consistent' RBs

"The guy is not getting any younger and T.J. Duckett will be more of a TD vulture this year ala Staley and Bettis situation."

Why is this? Just because? To compare this situation to Staley and Bettis is ridiculous

"Dunn's ranking last year is a tad misleading IMO, he had 9 TD's which was his best year as a pro"

2004 was the third year Dunn had at least 9 TDs

"I think it is fair to give him 5 TD's which is a little over his career avg. "

Dunn has averaged over 7 TDs his past 5 yrs.

"I despise inconsistency in my fantasy players especially in the RB position"

18.3, 16.4, 13.7, 13.6, 13.5, 1.3, 12.1, 10, 8.1, 8, 5.2, 11.2, 19.4, 19.9, 15.2

Inconsistency like this will go a long way toward winning your league

"One year he will surpass the 1000 yard total and then the following year he will run for 400 yds or 600 yards. Inconsitency is not welcomed on my fantasy teams."

1440, 1370, 1205, 1555, 1004, 1304, 1008, 1400

Those are Dunn's yardage totals for his entire career. Might be time to open your eyes to two dimensional backs. Something tells me you think D Davis sucks as well...

I give this post a

 

[MelvinTScupper]

hilarious stuff in here. Nice work, wilked, btw. Dunn does appear to have nice value, especially given how he showed he can be the feature back last year.Apparently, I shouldn't want Dunn because I'm going to draft LT, Portis and McGahee.Why are people trying to argue that Dunn isn't value because he's not a top ten back? NO #### HE'S NOT A TOP 10 BACK, THAT'S WHY HE'S BEING DRAFTED MUCH LATER!

 

[Holy Schneikes]

hilarious stuff in here. Nice work, wilked, btw. Dunn does appear to have nice value, especially given how he showed he can be the feature back last year.

Apparently, I shouldn't want Dunn because I'm going to draft LT, Portis and McGahee.

Why are people trying to argue that Dunn isn't value because he's not a top ten back? NO #### HE'S NOT A TOP 10 BACK, THAT'S WHY HE'S BEING DRAFTED MUCH LATER!

I for one have already agreed that he represents SOME value in a redraft. I just think that value is exaggerated in this thread. There very legitimate reasons he is being drafted where he is. It's not like the guy is falling to the 10th round or anything, he's still usually taken by the end of the 4th. If he's SO overvalued, how much higher would he have to go to be considered "at value". Guys like Curtis Martin, Lamaont Jordan, Tatum Bell, and Carnell Williams are withing 6 "slots" of him in antsports ADP. The guys right BEHIND him, Fred Taylor, Bennett, Foster, Arrington, Benson, Staley etc. don't look significantly worse to me either (some of them I'd consider over Dunn). So where SHOULD he be going?

 

[texasbirdfan]

Back to basics here. This years Falcons will have the classic RBBC- this is Duckett's year to prove himself and reading between the lines of Rich McKAy's comments on a forum a couple of days ago- I wouldn't be surprised if Duckett is the feature back this year. You guys can trot out all the "past history" stuff, but this Falcon fan is staying away fron Dunn in re-drafter leagues this year- much too risky.

 

[wilked]

hilarious stuff in here.  Nice work, wilked, btw.  Dunn does appear to have nice value, especially given how he showed he can be the feature back last year.

Apparently, I shouldn't want Dunn because I'm going to draft LT, Portis and McGahee.

Why are people trying to argue that Dunn isn't value because he's not a top ten back?  NO #### HE'S NOT A TOP 10 BACK, THAT'S WHY HE'S BEING DRAFTED MUCH LATER!

Guys like Curtis Martin, Lamaont Jordan, Tatum Bell, and Carnell Williams are withing 6 "slots" of him in antsports ADP.

XCarnell, yes, the others are going a full round or more ahead of him. Check your numbers guy

Edited to add: If you instead meant that they are within 6 RB postions of one another, I hope that you are not also arguing that 6 RB positions is insignificant. The difference between RB18 and 24 is historically 30-40 pts, far from insignificant.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

Over-simplifying things a little bit aren't you?

The crux of your argument was complaining about Tiki's average TD production going as far back as 1997, so no.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

hilarious stuff in here.  Nice work, wilked, btw.  Dunn does appear to have nice value, especially given how he showed he can be the feature back last year.

Apparently, I shouldn't want Dunn because I'm going to draft LT, Portis and McGahee.

Why are people trying to argue that Dunn isn't value because he's not a top ten back?  NO #### HE'S NOT A TOP 10 BACK, THAT'S WHY HE'S BEING DRAFTED MUCH LATER!

Guys like Curtis Martin, Lamaont Jordan, Tatum Bell, and Carnell Williams are withing 6 "slots" of him in antsports ADP.

XCarnell, yes, the others are going a full round or more ahead of him. Check your numbers guy

Edited to add: If you instead meant that they are within 6 RB postions of one another, I hope that you are not also arguing that 6 RB positions is insignificant. The difference between RB18 and 24 is historically 30-40 pts, far from insignificant.

That IS what I'm saying (so you can ditch the cheesy capital X), 6 slots. Is it that gap signficant? Yes. Is it drastic? No. By the way, I don't know about historically, but last year in a standard scoring system, the difference between 18 and 24 was 22 points. Perhaps I should give you the big red capital X.Regardless, you didn't answer the question. If Dunn represents such a huge value, which of the guys in front of him should he be replacing and where should he be drafted?

While I think you and I might agree on a few, but there just aren't too many guys who are going in front of him that I'd pass on to get him.

I might prefer Dunn to Benson, but they are going at very nearly the same place. I'd rather have Carnell Williams. Chris Brown (who scares me) and Ronnie Brown (who I am "down" on relative to most around here) I have in about the same grouping as Dunn, but both have a little bit more upside in my book. Any of the backs being taken earlier than those guys are far superior to Dunn in my estimation.

So, while I might prefer a Dunn at 4.11 to a Chris Brown at 3.11 or a Ron Brown at 4.02, it wouldn't be by a lot and it would be more because those guys are OVERvalued (IMO) than Dunn is UNDERvalued.

 

[Bri]

This guy is the biggest value on the board at this point.  I'm not in love with his production at all, but his production for where he is drafted is pure gold.

Here's a guy currently ranked in the FBG concensus rankings as the #25 ranked running back behind the likes of JJ Arrington, Carnell Williams, Chris Brown, Lamont Jordan, Tatum Bell, etc.

When healthy his production is that of a top 15 back.  He's going to produce 1,000 yards rushing, 400 yards receiving, and 9 touchdowns.

I will take that all day long over then unknown production from the guys above.

With an ADP on Antsports of around 50-55 this guy is an absolute steal.  Jordan, Jackson, and Bell are going a full two rounds or more earlier than this guy.  Heck.. even Cedric Benson has a higher ADP.



wow.

You're right, and many of us wholeheartedly agree.

Jason et all, everyone seems to be on a Dunn-lovefest here.Question: Knowing that TJ Duckett can void his contract after this year due to minimal carry #s not being reached, now how do you feel?

Personally I just read this today myself

 

[Holy Schneikes]

This guy is the biggest value on the board at this point.  I'm not in love with his production at all, but his production for where he is drafted is pure gold.

Here's a guy currently ranked in the FBG concensus rankings as the #25 ranked running back behind the likes of JJ Arrington, Carnell Williams, Chris Brown, Lamont Jordan, Tatum Bell, etc.

When healthy his production is that of a top 15 back.  He's going to produce 1,000 yards rushing, 400 yards receiving, and 9 touchdowns.

I will take that all day long over then unknown production from the guys above.

With an ADP on Antsports of around 50-55 this guy is an absolute steal.  Jordan, Jackson, and Bell are going a full two rounds or more earlier than this guy.  Heck.. even Cedric Benson has a higher ADP.



wow.

You're right, and many of us wholeheartedly agree.

Jason et all, everyone seems to be on a Dunn-lovefest here.Question: Knowing that TJ Duckett can void his contract after this year due to minimal carry #s not being reached, now how do you feel?

Personally I just read this today myself

I just read the writeup on Dunn and I have to say that positives section dealing with his contract is flat out twisted.The writeup says

"(and was rewarded with a long-term contract after the 2004 season). He’s now under contract with Atlanta through 2007 season with a very cap friendly number this year".

Yeah, that's ONE way to put it, but here's what really happened: Dunn was not REWARDED after 2004, he helped the team out by DROPPING his salary. Whoever wrote that section should be rewarded with a lower salary too. Yes, his 2005 salary is now very cap-friendly, but his 2006 and 2007 salary is decidedly UNfriendly all of the sudden.

 

[Bri]

Schneikes, Dunn will only give them a cap hit of 550k next year.

this site's cap figures was referred to me by someone I trust and you can tell this guy does a nice job with them, puts some effort into it.

http://www.falcfans.com/features/2006cap.html

change URL to a 5 for 2005

The previous years matchup to NFLPA and USAToday #s too

 

[wilked]

So, while I might prefer a Dunn at 4.11 to a Chris Brown at 3.11 or a Ron Brown at 4.02, it wouldn't be by a lot and it would be more because those guys are OVERvalued (IMO) than Dunn is UNDERvalued.

lol...for every undervalued player, there absolutely MUST be an overvalued playerThis is what keeps the universe afloat my good friend. Think about it...

To answer your question, Dunn is going roughly 1 to 1.5 rounds later than his fair market value. I understand you think that does not represent much value, but to me, if I can get a player a round or better later than where I want him, ESPECIALLY in the first 5 rounds, I am feeling great.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

So, while I might prefer a Dunn at 4.11 to a Chris Brown at 3.11 or a Ron Brown at 4.02, it wouldn't be by a lot and it would be more because those guys are OVERvalued (IMO) than Dunn is UNDERvalued.

lol...for every undervalued player, there absolutely MUST be an overvalued playerThis is what keeps the universe afloat my good friend. Think about it...

To answer your question, Dunn is going roughly 1 to 1.5 rounds later than his fair market value. I understand you think that does not represent much value, but to me, if I can get a player a round or better later than where I want him, ESPECIALLY in the first 5 rounds, I am feeling great.

Still didn't answer the whole question, though we might be able to infer that info from the round to round and a half estimate.If Dunn is a round and half early, we should take him before or around the following guys:

McNabb, Walker, Horn, Andre Johnson, Gonzo, Gates, Wayne, Ward, Clayton, etc.

Two rounds gets you to the likes of Chad Johnson and Curtis Martin.

That's my point, depending on starting requirements, how the draft was flowing etc, I wouldn't take Dunn (a lower tier, limited upside RB) over any of those guys. If he's going late, it's only by a couple of spots over guys a lot less promising that the ones listed above.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

Schneikes, Dunn will only give them a cap hit of 550k next year.

this site's cap figures was referred to me by someone I trust and you can tell this guy does a nice job with them, puts some effort into it.

http://www.falcfans.com/features/2006cap.html

change URL to a 5 for 2005

The previous years matchup to NFLPA and USAToday #s too

Sorry, you missed my point. 2005 is THIS year. 2006 is next year.Check this link.

March 30 ESPN article

Dunn's CAP figures (which are different than slary figures obviously) for 2005 through 2007 are:

$3.8M, $8.5M and $10.4M respectively. He will likely not see the $8.5 or the $10.4.

Len P notes in the article that

Dunn's cap charges for 2006 and '07 are now so prohibitive that his contract will almost certainly have to be addressed again in those seasons.

Again, my point was that the "positives" implies a real contact extension after 2004 which is wrong, and it implies that it was a "reward" which is wrong. Atlanta needed money, and Dunn agreed to restructure for them. Same thing that happens all over the league every year, but it certainly wasn't a reward.

 

[wilked]

So, while I might prefer a Dunn at 4.11 to a Chris Brown at 3.11 or a Ron Brown at 4.02, it wouldn't be by a lot and it would be more because those guys are OVERvalued (IMO) than Dunn is UNDERvalued.

lol...for every undervalued player, there absolutely MUST be an overvalued playerThis is what keeps the universe afloat my good friend. Think about it...

To answer your question, Dunn is going roughly 1 to 1.5 rounds later than his fair market value. I understand you think that does not represent much value, but to me, if I can get a player a round or better later than where I want him, ESPECIALLY in the first 5 rounds, I am feeling great.

Still didn't answer the whole question, though we might be able to infer that info from the round to round and a half estimate.If Dunn is a round and half early, we should take him before or around the following guys:

McNabb, Walker, Horn, Andre Johnson, Gonzo, Gates, Wayne, Ward, Clayton, etc.

Two rounds gets you to the likes of Chad Johnson and Curtis Martin.

That's my point, depending on starting requirements, how the draft was flowing etc, I wouldn't take Dunn (a lower tier, limited upside RB) over any of those guys. If he's going late, it's only by a couple of spots over guys a lot less promising that the ones listed above.

Obviously you woudn't take him over these guys, that has been your argument all along dude. Others value him more than you, and would. Remember, we need drafters like you in order to keep him at value

 

[wilked]

Looks like the word is already getting around, he has been moving up at xperleagues

http://xpertleagues.com/adp

 

[Barry Jive and The Uptown Five]

Dunn is undervalued at RB25, but not severely undervalued - he's still got some serious warts - dont let his numbers in 2004 fool you into being too optimistic...

1) 2004 saw dunn's highest carry and rushing TD totals of his career and first year playing in all 16 games since 2000.

2) Dunn's role in the passing game is trending down. The Falcons are doing more work with Duckett in the passing game. I suspect Dunn's years of 50 receptions or 500 yards through the air are over.

3) dunn had 8 games at or above his average of 12.1 fantasy points - 4 of them were when duckett was out - if duckett stays healthy, dunn's game as anything except an adequate RB2 will be few and far between.

I like Dunn as a "hold the line" RB2 where he's going if you have taken 3 QB/TE/WR in the first 4 rounds. I like him as an RB3. But he's still not very exciting as a fantasy player unless duckett gets hurt. The rookie RBs, Jordan, and Bell all have potential to be a quality RB2 or even RB1 - Dunn does not have that - I think his 2001-3 finishes of RB23, RB19, and RB27 are much closer to what youll get from him than the RB15 he finished at last year.

Just wanted to add a couple of things to this very observant post (good stuff, Bloom). As a Dunn owner last year, these were the things I recall...1) 2004 saw dunn's highest carry and rushing TD totals of his career and first year playing in all 16 games since 2000.

The ramp up in carries comes directly from the addition of Gibbs/Mora. I would consider this a positive. The run-pass ratio isn't going to go backwards.

2) Dunn's role in the passing game is trending down. The Falcons are doing more work with Duckett in the passing game. I suspect Dunn's years of 50 receptions or 500 yards through the air are over.

Here's a negative - but it's not Duckett who's stealing the catches, it's the FB. Very much a design of the WCO where FBs like Rathman (SFO) and Schlesinger (DET) get more targets than carries. I was disappointed to see the low rec numbers for Dunn last year.

3) dunn had 8 games at or above his average of 12.1 fantasy points - 4 of them were when duckett was out - if duckett stays healthy, dunn's game as anything except an adequate RB2 will be few and far between.

I would love to see a game-log breakdown on these two guys. If the Falcons were playing with the lead, Dunn would lose the 4th QTR carries to Duckett as More/Gibbs pounded the clock. If they were behind, Dunn stayed in. So Ithink it's a two-factored effect with Duckett.

 

[Jason Wood]

I would love to see a game-log breakdown on these two guys. If the Falcons were playing with the lead, Dunn would lose the 4th QTR carries to Duckett as More/Gibbs pounded the clock. If they were behind, Dunn stayed in. So Ithink it's a two-factored effect with Duckett.

Here you go:T.J. Duckett Game Log (with Play by Play): http://footballguys.com/DuckT.00-3.htm

Warrick Dunn Game Log (with Play by Play): http://footballguys.com/DunnWa00-3.htm

 

[H.K.]

I would love to see a game-log breakdown on these two guys.  If the Falcons were playing with the lead, Dunn would lose the 4th QTR carries to Duckett as More/Gibbs pounded the clock.  If they were behind, Dunn stayed in.  So Ithink it's a two-factored effect with Duckett.

Here you go:T.J. Duckett Game Log (with Play by Play): http://footballguys.com/DuckT.00-3.htm

Warrick Dunn Game Log (with Play by Play): http://footballguys.com/DunnWa00-3.htm

I hurried when I did this but here are some interesting numbers in games when both played at the same time last seasonunn had 159 carries, Duckett had 104

Dunn scored 6 of his 9 TD's when Duckett played, Duckett scored all 8 of his with Dunn active (however, Duckett scored 4 TD's in one game to really help his totals).

On the season, Duckett carried over 10 times on 5 occasions, with his highest amount at 13. Dunn carried at least 10 times in 15 out of 16 games, with his highest being 28 (twice), and each time Duckett was active.

Not sure how much this helps, but I thought it was interesting....

 

[Tau837]

I would love to see a game-log breakdown on these two guys. If the Falcons were playing with the lead, Dunn would lose the 4th QTR carries to Duckett as More/Gibbs pounded the clock. If they were behind, Dunn stayed in. So Ithink it's a two-factored effect with Duckett.

From post 55:

Checking the FBG Player Pages reveals more about last season.

First off, here are there carries for 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th/OT:

Dunn: 78, 59, 76, 50

Duckett: 15, 22, 17, 50

So, while Duckett got more "closing" carries, it was an even split with Dunn. There are other factors to consider.

Leading big:

Dunn: 31

Duckett: 40

Leading close:

Dunn: 84

Duckett: 26

Tied:

Dunn: 79

Duckett: 9

Trailing close:

Dunn: 37

Duckett: 20

Trailing big:

Dunn: 32

Duckett: 9

So in close game situations, Dunn had 200 carries and Duckett had 55. When leading or trailing big, the gap was very close: Dunn 63, Duckett 49.

That is pretty revealing IMO, though it is hard to use as a fantasy predictor unless you can predict how often Atlanta will be in close game situations. Still, I would say it is less of a closer role than a mop up role. It apparently just so happened that many wide margin game situations were in the 4th quarter, which is logical.

Also:

In wins:

Dunn: 182 (16.5 carries per game)

Duckett: 85 (9.4 carries per game)

In losses:

Dunn: 83 (16.6 carries per game)

Duckett: 19 (6.3 carries per game)

So Duckett got the majority of his carries in wins... so it really does look like a lot of his work was mopping up in lopsided games in the 4th quarter. Meanwhile, Dunn's carries were consistent.

 

[Native]

Im a big Dunn fan and have owned him seveal times over the last few years - however, lets try and call it like it. After a very hot start to the season last year, he started to lose touches (and FF points) around mideseason. The ONLY reason he had a strong finish to the season was beacuse Duckett had minor knee surgery and missed the final few weeks of the season. He was fortunate that Duckett went down when he did, or his final stats would be much lower.Again, I love the value he represents - but last years numbers were more a result of circumstance than many people here are letting on.

 

[David Yudkin]

Im a big Dunn fan and have owned him seveal times over the last few years - however, lets try and call it like it. After a very hot start to the season last year, he started to lose touches (and FF points) around mideseason. The ONLY reason he had a strong finish to the season was beacuse Duckett had minor knee surgery and missed the final few weeks of the season. He was fortunate that Duckett went down when he did, or his final stats would be much lower.

Again, I love the value he represents - but last years numbers were more a result of circumstance than many people here are letting on.

Welcome to the life of Warrick Dunn. Last year was representative of EVERY season he's had in the league.In TB, he was always going to lose time or his job to Alstott. In every year in Atlanta he was going to lose time or his job to Duckett. Yet he somehow always manages to keep a steady job and a steady workload.

 

[wilked]

"I despise inconsistency in my fantasy players especially in the RB position"

18.3, 16.4, 13.7, 13.6, 13.5, 1.3, 12.1, 10, 8.1, 8, 5.2, 11.2, 19.4, 19.9, 15.2

here are the numbers without the games duckett missed:18.3, 16.4, 13.6, 1.3, 12.1, 10, 8.1, 8, 5.2, 11.2, 15.2

strong start, and kinda "meh" after that...

i still like his value, but im not gushing over him. his 2004 stats were misleading because he was durable and duckett missed the most games he has so far in his any of his 3 seasons.

looks like nice RB2 numbers to me, especially for a guy you can get in the 5thNot sure what you are looking for from him, 20+ points / game?

adequate RB2 numbers, ill agree - which should put him somewhere in RB18-24 range - a value as RB25, but not a tremendous value.

Nope, it put him at RB15 last year

Which was very close to the best he's done in 8 years. Not sure I would bank on that next year (or any year).

lol, keep the misinformation coming The best he's done in 8 years? Here is his chronological ranking at his position since he came into the league

13, 19, 21, 15, 23, 19, 27, 15

I would argue that 15th is right in line with his entire career

Another example of how the "sharks" draft based on potential rather than proven output. I think it was my GB Carter who said something like "with the depth at RB this year "...EVERY year looks like the year there will be 25 RBs finishing in the top 10...the problem is that there are only 10 spots. I would rather bank on the guy who has finished between 13 and 23 7 out of 8 years in his career finishing as a good RB2, ESPECIALLY when he can be drafted as your RB4

See Bloom's post above. If that doesn't work for youunn has never been in the top 10 in ANYTHING in his entire career. No total yards, not rushing yards, not rushing average, not TDs, not FANTASY POINTS, etc. Call it "misinformation" if you want to, but the FACT is that Dunn has NEVER been significantly better than he was last year when things went really well for him overall.

Now he's a year older, he's still a part-time back, he doesn't catch the ball like he used to, and there is every indication that he won't get a lot of goal-line looks. That scenario does NOT lead me to believe he's about to strike into unkown territory and it makes me think that he could be headed down rather than up.

He was 0.30 yds away from top 10 in yards, or 10.8 inches lol...every year he 'won't do it again'...this argument gets used until he approaches 30, at which point he is now 'too old to do it again'.

He has finished between 13th and 23rd 7 of 8 years, I for one would not bet against him to do it again

Does Carter Can't Fly still post here? I know bloom and Scheikes do.

 

[wilked]

If Dunn is a round and half early, we should take him before or around the following guys:

McNabb, Walker, Horn, Andre Johnson, Gonzo, Gates, Wayne, Ward, Clayton, etc.

That's my point, depending on starting requirements, how the draft was flowing etc, I wouldn't take Dunn (a lower tier, limited upside RB) over any of those guys.

gllllllllll w/ that

 

[Keys Myaths]

If Dunn is a round and half early, we should take him before or around the following guys:

McNabb, Walker, Horn, Andre Johnson, Gonzo, Gates, Wayne, Ward, Clayton, etc.

That's my point, depending on starting requirements, how the draft was flowing etc, I wouldn't take Dunn (a lower tier, limited upside RB) over any of those guys.

gllllllllll w/ that

Good info here.

 

[Billy Bats]

I took Dunn at 6.3 (53rd overall) as my #3 back. Well he's now my #1B because of injuries, and I couldn't be happier. His 133+ rushing yards tonight got me another win. Way to go WD!

 

[GRIDIRON ASSASSIN]

I took Dunn at 6.3 (53rd overall) as my #3 back. Well he's now my #1B because of injuries, and I couldn't be happier. His 133+ rushing yards tonight got me another win. Way to go WD!

I've had Dunn as a value pick the past three years now.Joey Galloway and Thomas Jones also.

Nothing wrong with getting those mid round consistent players.

 

[MelvinTScupper]

"another great call"™ by JoeT

 

[LordHusker]

Just don't even BOTHER drafting him in a TD-heavy league.He's going to end the season with about 4-5 TDs. That's just a killer.I'm betting that Fred Taylor scores more TDs than Dunn does this year.

 

[E_Smith]

i needed that score tonight to win... killer. i swear to god he crossed that plane. oh well, there is a reason duckett is the goal line back.

 

[gregx55]

Dunn's yards tonight allowed my to put a beat down on my opponet this week to the tone of 66 points. What do you say to a guy that you just beat by a margin that big? As far as Value goes, I play in a keeper league so alot tof the money back are already locked up so I had to get Dunn in the second, but then again I already had Mcgahee, but I did think Dunn would get a touch tonight.

 

[Kleck]

Good info here.

Yep. Appears someone likes to bump their own "I was right" posts. Couldn't we all do this? Sure, but what's the point?

 

[Babu Bhatt]

Good info here.

Yep. Appears someone likes to bump their own "I was right" posts. Couldn't we all do this? Sure, but what's the point?

To gloat, I believe.

 

[Bears_Man2]

Good info here.

Yep. Appears someone likes to bump their own "I was right" posts. Couldn't we all do this? Sure, but what's the point?

Well if there was an instance to do so, this one would be it. Warrick = Value so far. As have RB's like F\/\/P, Thomas Jones, Mike Anderson (if drafting early), MeMo, and probably another one/two I'm missing.I know I'm not alone in being one that thought Duckett & Vick would be stealing all his value by now.

 

[phowler13]

has anyone seen him moved in your leagues? If so for what?

 

[Cunning Linguist]

Dunn should have been on the cover of the FBG mag this year, if they had balls.