Was Clinton Portis a real difference maker last season? (1 Viewer)

[David Yudkin]

I think the obvious question we shhould be asking is if MOP didn't feel that Portis was a difference maker, then who did he feel was a difference maker--especially at RB.

I suspect that that list will be pretty short and that he will not be able to come up with enough names that would show that Portis was not worth where he was selected in 2007. And I alos think that some of the people that he may consider difference makers were people that produced out of the blue (say like Grant or Fargas).

 

[Synthesizer]

Besides, in non-PPR, Portis had more games > 25 points than Graham, Fargas and Grant combined.

For the record, Portis had zero games > 25 points.

Not to pile on here Synthesizer, but just in case you missed it, Portis had three (3) games > 25 points.

If you use standard scoring (without the decimals), he definitely had zero games > 25 points

 

[gianmarco]

Besides, in non-PPR, Portis had more games > 25 points than Graham, Fargas and Grant combined.

For the record, Portis had zero games > 25 points.

Not to pile on here Synthesizer, but just in case you missed it, Portis had three (3) games > 25 points.

If you use standard scoring (without the decimals), he definitely had zero games > 25 points

And if we use standard IQ (without the decimals)........

 

[dgreen]

He won't win any games for you on his own, but he sure won't lose any either.

Exactly my point. He's currently ranked as the #6 overall player heading into next season.

How many players do you expect in an average year to "win games for you"?IMO, there will be 1 QB, 2-3 RB, and 1 WR who can do that in an average year. That's 4-5 players. So, if that's correct, or at least close to correct, most people shouldn't expect the #6 overall player to "win games for you."

 

[Bri]

It seems a lot of people are quick to defend Clinton Portis on his 2007 season. I understand he was in the top5-10 by the end of the season when all the stats were compiled...but when I think back to all those write ups I did last season, I don't remember too many people really defending this guy on a weekly basis. It has been said he went in the 3rd round but I seem to remember most of my drafts he went in the 2nd at some point but that is really splitting hairs. I also believe that by the time he was making a bigger impact which seems to be weeks 14-17(FF Playoffs), to me he had actually hurt his owners at that point or at least wasn't piggy backing owners to the league championships. And it means that by the time he got cranking, it is possible that a percentage of those owners that had him were already done for the season. I went back and simply did a week by week ranking of where he finished. I do admit that he seemed to hold serve for some of the season but he doesn't seem to have very many weeks at all where he won a game for a team. Now this would be PPR leagues...here is where Portis finished on a week by week basis from weeks 1 thru 13.1: 14th2: 17th3: 8th4: Bye5: 26th6: 24th7: 9th8: 15th9: 7th10: 8th11: 41st12: 24th13: 22nd4 times he creeped up into the top 10...I add up a guy that averaged about 17-18th per week...meaning every week I start him I am going to be "possibly" losing ground to 17 other RB in the league.

Absent from this is that no one that you play against will have 17 RBs starting during any single week AND the RB that was drafted(likely) in round 1. You only have one opponent and that guy may have a round 1 and a second round RB. To start(at draft time) he was a 2nd round RB and since RBs go so heavily early in drafts, he's thought of (at the time) as "not a top ten" back. That's how he performed. Peterson went all over the draft last year, early later etc. I think you need to look at- 2nd round on, who would have done better? Early mocks I've seen have Portis late first/early second with people thinking- do I go top WR, top QB, or delve into the last of the good RBs? That's not up that much from 2007 really. In 2007, people were concerned (a little bit) about Betts taking some carries and Portis' health. It's only natural to raise a player a few spots with those Qs answerred, so I'm back to he did just about as expected.

 

[Uruk-Hai]

In 2007, people were concerned (a little bit) about Betts taking some carries and Portis' health.

I don't recall it being "a little bit"; it was worrying people a ton. That's why he was going relatively late & "The Portis Strategy" was so viable.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I think the obvious question we shhould be asking is if MOP didn't feel that Portis was a difference maker, then who did he feel was a difference maker--especially at RB.

I suspect that that list will be pretty short and that he will not be able to come up with enough names that would show that Portis was not worth where he was selected in 2007. And I alos think that some of the people that he may consider difference makers were people that produced out of the blue (say like Grant or Fargas).

Fantasy Football is a game of studs...It's the have(s) and the have nots...it's unfortunate but usually just a handful of players make all the difference. Here is what I wrote about CLinton Portis in week 9 last year in the weekly RB thread...

Washington at NY Jets

Clinton Portis: It would seem with the injuries at LB to the Jets that the Skins and Portis have a big advantage this week. After being shelled by the Pats last week, I look for the Skins to take it out on the Jets this Sunday. Portis has not single handedly won a game for owners this year…Sunday that might change. Time for him to have a breakout game. The 2 TD and 40 yds he put up 2 weeks ago was not a breakout game for me. He has been very average all season.

Here is the Link

Almost 2,200 hits in that thread and not once did anyone say anything defending Clinton Portis...Not one person saying that Portis was helping them in their league to that point. Yes, portis had a nice playoff run and for teams that were able to field Randy Moss, Tom Brady, and a few others...sure Portis was simply gravy come playoff time if they trusted to put him out there...he was terrible for the 4 weeks leading up week 15...12/36, 20/68, 25/50,17/36...74 carries for about 200 yds rushing or about 2.5 yds a clip.

And for the record what did Portis do the week I called for his big game of the season? 36 carries 196 yds and a TD, so let's not act like MOP is completely clueless when it comes to being dialed in to the RB. You guys are literally just taking the end of season stats and throwing them in a vacuum.

YES YES YES last year was an off year for RB. I was NOT asking if Portis was worth a 2nd/3rd rounder last year...who gives a spit when he was drafted. Randy moss went in the 4th and 5th round of a lot of drafts, Derek Anderson was plucked off waivers along with several RB because of injuries last season. The real question was did Portis make a difference...and as I wrote those weekly RB threads last season I don't remember a lot of people sticking up for him.

There are simply 2 viewpoints here, I am in the minority camp and that is terrific. Let people take him in the middle of the 1st round this year, good luck to all.

 

[Maroney=Sped]

I think the obvious question we shhould be asking is if MOP didn't feel that Portis was a difference maker, then who did he feel was a difference maker--especially at RB.

I suspect that that list will be pretty short and that he will not be able to come up with enough names that would show that Portis was not worth where he was selected in 2007. And I alos think that some of the people that he may consider difference makers were people that produced out of the blue (say like Grant or Fargas).

Fantasy Football is a game of studs...It's the have(s) and the have nots...it's unfortunate but usually just a handful of players make all the difference. Here is what I wrote about CLinton Portis in week 9 last year in the weekly RB thread...

Washington at NY Jets

Clinton Portis: It would seem with the injuries at LB to the Jets that the Skins and Portis have a big advantage this week. After being shelled by the Pats last week, I look for the Skins to take it out on the Jets this Sunday. Portis has not single handedly won a game for owners this year…Sunday that might change. Time for him to have a breakout game. The 2 TD and 40 yds he put up 2 weeks ago was not a breakout game for me. He has been very average all season.

Here is the Link

Almost 2,200 hits in that thread and not once did anyone say anything defending Clinton Portis...Not one person saying that Portis was helping them in their league to that point. Yes, portis had a nice playoff run and for teams that were able to field Randy Moss, Tom Brady, and a few others...sure Portis was simply gravy come playoff time if they trusted to put him out there...he was terrible for the 4 weeks leading up week 15...12/36, 20/68, 25/50,17/36...74 carries for about 200 yds rushing or about 2.5 yds a clip.

And for the record what did Portis do the week I called for his big game of the season? 36 carries 196 yds and a TD, so let's not act like MOP is completely clueless when it comes to being dialed in to the RB. You guys are literally just taking the end of season stats and throwing them in a vacuum.

YES YES YES last year was an off year for RB. I was NOT asking if Portis was worth a 2nd/3rd rounder last year...who gives a spit when he was drafted. Randy moss went in the 4th and 5th round of a lot of drafts, Derek Anderson was plucked off waivers along with several RB because of injuries last season. The real question was did Portis make a difference...and as I wrote those weekly RB threads last season I don't remember a lot of people sticking up for him.

There are simply 2 viewpoints here, I am in the minority camp and that is terrific. Let people take him in the middle of the 1st round this year, good luck to all.

We're all at risk, by perpetuating this discussion with MoP, of looking like the very donkey we're arguing with. Running that risk, however, I have to ask - How on earth can you say that you don't care about ADP when asking whether Portis made a difference? ADP, along with actual production, are the two determinants of a player's value. Anyone choosing to discard one in a discussion about value is obviously talking into their hat.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

We're all at risk, by perpetuating this discussion with MoP, of looking like the very donkey we're arguing with.

Running that risk, however, I have to ask - How on earth can you say that you don't care about ADP when asking whether Portis made a difference? ADP, along with actual production, are the two determinants of a player's value. Anyone choosing to discard one in a discussion about value is obviously talking into their hat.

I asked in the OP to keep the name calling out of it. I have posted very little and I have been very careful to not come over the top of posters that I don't know very well. David Yudkin and I have competed in dynasty leagues so there is a mutual respect. When you resort to name calling, it pretty much ends all discussion. Good luck to you in 2008.

Edited to add: I see you had to try and still get the last word in at post #111...hillarious.

 

[AnonymousBob]

Sure, the question is if Portis made a difference...the answer is yes, he did. At least in a roundabout manner. Drafting a top 10 rb in round 3 or later enables you to stock up on other studs - which is HUGE.

It's silly to say who gives a spit in regard to his draft position when draft position plays a factor in determining things. If I draft a top 10 guy in the top ten, he held his own. If I draft a top ten guy in the top 25, that late round value allows me to grab other stud positions - thus he is somewhat of a difference maker.

If you simply want to know if he single handedly won you any games, I'll ask the question I've already asked (and the question Yudkin also asked): Who WAS a difference maker? ADP...Westbrook...Randy Moss...Tom Brady...and who else? Not many players are regular difference makers who score double whatever everybody else at that position scores. What in the world did you EXPECT out of a third rounder? How can you honestly say drafting the #6 rb in the third round makes no difference???

Yes, he never exploded for 50 points in any one game - but as has been said quite often, steady quality is very valuable. Consistency doesn't get the love it should.

 

[Maroney=Sped]

We're all at risk, by perpetuating this discussion with MoP, of looking like the very donkey we're arguing with.

Running that risk, however, I have to ask - How on earth can you say that you don't care about ADP when asking whether Portis made a difference? ADP, along with actual production, are the two determinants of a player's value. Anyone choosing to discard one in a discussion about value is obviously talking into their hat.

I asked in the OP to keep the name calling out of it. I have posted very little and I have been very careful to not come over the top of posters that I don't know very well. David Yudkin and I have competed in dynasty leagues so there is a mutual respect. When you resort to name calling, it pretty much ends all discussion. Good luck to you in 2008.

I'd stop arguing in this thread too if I was as wrong as you are.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Sure, the question is if Portis made a difference...the answer is yes, he did. At least in a roundabout manner. Drafting a top 10 rb in round 3 or later enables you to stock up on other studs - which is HUGE. It's silly to say who gives a spit in regard to his draft position when draft position plays a factor in determining things. If I draft a top 10 guy in the top ten, he held his own. If I draft a top ten guy in the top 25, that late round value allows me to grab other stud positions - thus he is somewhat of a difference maker.If you simply want to know if he single handedly won you any games, I'll ask the question I've already asked (and the question Yudkin also asked): Who WAS a difference maker? ADP...Westbrook...Randy Moss...Tom Brady...and who else? Not many players are regular difference makers who score double whatever everybody else at that position scores. What in the world did you EXPECT out of a third rounder? How can you honestly say drafting the #6 rb in the third round makes no difference???Yes, he never exploded for 50 points in any one game - but as has been said quite often, steady quality is very valuable. Consistency doesn't get the love it should.

Good stuff AB...in most of my 12 team redrafts, 4-6 teams might make the playoffs, and each week you are likely to be going against an ADP, Addai, Westbrook, LT, Randy Moss, Tom Brady...my thing is I want players that can cover up for others. And Portis despite his year end ranking, was someitmes a guy you had to have others cover for. He had a big game in week9, but there were not many weeks where owners could say "Thank God portis pulled us through this week"...think about Portis when he played in Denver in 2002-2003...especially the 2nd half of those seaosns, the guy was unstoppable, and he was tkaing teams to championships on his back. Yes I think the guys I am looking at in the 1st 3-5 rounds of most redrafts are guys I am going to want to start every week. And if Portis barely cracked the top10 in about 4 weeks of the FF season, and most of the time he was in the 15-25 range...then owners were not really getting a bargain, and they were not getting a guy that was propelling them to wins. Everyone seems to think he was OK because they didn't expect much out of him...makes it sound like they took a late round flyer on the guy...no he was in the plans or was going to be a cornerstone to anyone that drafted him. And for a lot of the season he just was average.You can talk about ADP, I don't think it really matters in this instance.

 

[Banger]

Yes, he never exploded for 50 points in any one game - but as has been said quite often, steady quality is very valuable. Consistency doesn't get the love it should.

Great point. Consistency gets me into the playoffs nearly every year. I try to stock my team with a few "boring" guys (last year Portis/McGahee) that I thought were good RB2 values with a decent upside and then you take some risks and try to hit some homeruns with your later picks. Hopefully you hit on a few of your homeruns and before you know it you're in the championship game....

 

[AnonymousBob]

MoP,

Just seems we disagree on this one. That's part of the fun with this game. I enjoy your posts even if we don't always agree, so keep up the great work!

 

[kethnaab]

Fantasy Football is a game of studs...It's the have(s) and the have nots...it's unfortunate but usually just a handful of players make all the difference.

consistency is what truly makes the difference. Studs make a difference, sure, but there aren't a dozen studs each year. What also makes a difference is a team full of high-performance players who are consistent.Take a guy who averages 60 points per game in 8 games and then 5 points per game in the other 8. He sets a record for fantasy points in a season but he may very well hurt his team and cause them to lose during the playoffs. The likelihood of either happening is about equal. Take a look at Brady last year. He didn't do fantasy owners any favors and was partly (or largely) responsible for so many Brady owners bowing out of the Fantasy playoffs in week 15.

sure Portis was simply gravy come playoff time if they trusted to put him out there...he was terrible for the 4 weeks leading up week 15...12/36, 20/68, 25/50,17/36...74 carries for about 200 yds rushing or about 2.5 yds a clip.

you conveniently neglected to mention the other 138 yards receiving he had in those games, and you also conveniently selected some of his worst games.Let's play that game, the game of "selective omission" and "selective statistical analysis"*Cracks knuckles* "sure, LT was simply gravy come playoff time if they trusted to put him out there...he was terrible for the 3 weeks leading up to week 4...17/25, 18/43, 22/62...57 carries for about 130 yards rushing or about 2.3 yds a clip.""sure, LT was simply gravy come playoff time if they trusted to put him out there...he was terrible for the 4 weeks leading up to week 13...16/40, 21/76, 16/62, 24/77...77 carries for about 255 yards rushing or about 3.3 yds a clip.""sure, AD was simply gravy come playoff time if they trusted to put him out there...he was terrible for the 4 weeks leading up to the end of the season...14/3, 20/78, 9/27, 11/36...54 carries for about 144 yards rushing or about 2.6 yds a clip.""sure, Addai was simply gravy come playoff time if they trusted to put him out there...he was terrible for the 3 weeks leading up to week 16...21/67, 13/32, 15/44...49 carries for about 142 yards, or about 2.8 yds a clip.""sure, LT was the 3rd ranked fantasy RB in 2004 and was simply gravy come playoff time if they trusted to put him out there...he was terrible for the 5 weeks leading up to week 11...19/56, 23/64, 17/47, 19/71, 17/36...88 carries for about 274 yards, or about 3 yds a clip."Hmmm...that was kinda fun actually, no wonder you do it!

You guys are literally just taking the end of season stats and throwing them in a vacuum.

actually, we are not doing that, but we aren't completely ignoring reality. We are looking at the fact that he was always a solid RB2 last season and his consistency throughout the year was extremely helpful, ESPECIALLY as an RB2.did you miss the part about him outscoring LT in 7 weeks and AD in 8 weeks or Addai 9 times or MBIII 9 times, or did you neglect to look at that also?I can't speak for the other Portis supporters here, but what simply strikes me as odd is the selective statistical analysis. Doing well in the fantasy football playoffs is a bad thing somehow? Averaging nearly 15 PPG is somehow a bad thing? Even in the incredibly run-heavy years of 2006 and 2005, Portis' PPG average this year would've put him 8th (in 2006) and 7th (in 2005). You seem to be a bit unsure about why he would be picked at about the 6-8 slot for next year, yet his production this year would put him top 8 in any of the last 3 years.*shrugs*Go ahead, pass him over for any of a number of other RBs who "make a difference" in the first round this year. Good luck to you.

 

[kethnaab]

Good stuff AB...in most of my 12 team redrafts, 4-6 teams might make the playoffs, and each week you are likely to be going against an ADP, Addai, Westbrook, LT, Randy Moss, Tom Brady...my thing is I want players that can cover up for others. And Portis despite his year end ranking, was someitmes a guy you had to have others cover for. He had a big game in week9, but there were not many weeks where owners could say "Thank God portis pulled us through this week"...

You also rarely needed to cover for Portis. VERY rarely. Perhaps we should specifically define our terms because having a guy that was 7-9 vs. LT, 8-8 vs. AD and 9-7 vs. both Addai and MBIII is something I'll take anyday of the week.

think about Portis when he played in Denver in 2002-2003...especially the 2nd half of those seaosns, the guy was unstoppable, and he was tkaing teams to championships on his back.

Okay, but the same can be said of tons of RBs. LT certainly wasn't as good this season as he was in 2006 and Peyton Manning wasn't as good this year as he was in 2004. That doesn't mean they weren't solid players.standby for a direct game-by-game comparison of the top 12 backs in 2007.

 

[AnonymousBob]

kethnaab, that was an incredible post.

 

[Synthesizer]

7-9 vs. LT

This stat is wrong. He was actually 4-9 vs LT with 2 ties.

9-7 vs.Addai

That stat is wrong also. He was actually 7-8 vs Addai.Didn't both checking the rest of your numbers after those 2 turned out to be wrong.

 

[awesomeness]

in most of my 12 team redrafts, 4-6 teams might make the playoffs, and each week you are likely to be going against an ADP, Addai, Westbrook, LT, Randy Moss, Tom Brady

Three of those players are 1st round picks, expecting your 3rd round pick to match them in points when you face them is just being unrealistic (not to say Portis did not do it several weeks each). The guy who was able to get Moss in the 3rd and Brady in the 4th had an advantage every week, because no other player taken in the 3rd round by anyone was going to match them each week, so if your going to attack Portis for this, you gotta attack all other players taken in the 3rd round as well.Looking back at last year through weeks 1-12 (which is what you do anyway), who would have rather had in FBG scoring: Chad Johnson or T.J Houshmandzadeh?

 

[awesomeness]

7-9 vs. LT

This stat is wrong. He was actually 4-9 vs LT with 2 ties.

9-7 vs.Addai

That stat is wrong also. He was actually 7-8 vs Addai.Didn't both checking the rest of your numbers after those 2 turned out to be wrong.

May i ask the source that you are using? Cause according to my source which is FBG scoring Portis has beat Tomlinson 6 of the first 10 weeks of the season.

 

[Synthesizer]

7-9 vs. LT

This stat is wrong. He was actually 4-9 vs LT with 2 ties.

9-7 vs.Addai

That stat is wrong also. He was actually 7-8 vs Addai.Didn't both checking the rest of your numbers after those 2 turned out to be wrong.

May i ask the source that you are using? Cause according to my source which is FBG scoring Portis has beat Tomlinson 6 of the first 10 weeks of the season.

I am using standard scoring (without decimals). Portis had more points in weeks 2, 9, 16, and 17. Tomlinson had more points in weeks 1, 5, 6, 8, 11, 12, 13, 14, and 15. Bye weeks were 4 and 7. Tie weeks were 3 and 10.

 

[awesomeness]

7-9 vs. LT

This stat is wrong. He was actually 4-9 vs LT with 2 ties.

9-7 vs.Addai

That stat is wrong also. He was actually 7-8 vs Addai.Didn't both checking the rest of your numbers after those 2 turned out to be wrong.

May i ask the source that you are using? Cause according to my source which is FBG scoring Portis has beat Tomlinson 6 of the first 10 weeks of the season.

I am using standard scoring (without decimals). Portis had more points in weeks 2, 9, 16, and 17. Tomlinson had more points in weeks 1, 5, 6, 8, 11, 12, 13, 14, and 15. Bye weeks were 4 and 7. Tie weeks were 3 and 10.

You might want to recheck Week 1. Portis: 98 yrds, 1 TD= 15LT: 76 yrds, 1 TD= 13The website i was using had decimal points which was why Portis won weeks 3 and 10.

 

[kethnaab]

7-9 vs. LT

This stat is wrong. He was actually 4-9 vs LT with 2 ties.

9-7 vs.Addai

That stat is wrong also. He was actually 7-8 vs Addai.Didn't both checking the rest of your numbers after those 2 turned out to be wrong.

May i ask the source that you are using? Cause according to my source which is FBG scoring Portis has beat Tomlinson 6 of the first 10 weeks of the season.

I am using standard scoring (without decimals). Portis had more points in weeks 2, 9, 16, and 17. Tomlinson had more points in weeks 1, 5, 6, 8, 11, 12, 13, 14, and 15. Bye weeks were 4 and 7. Tie weeks were 3 and 10.

hmmm...how convenient of you to purposely omit decimals and the game that Addai didn't play.I used standard scoring including decimals. 6/TD, 1/10 yards and I didn't selectively omit anything, I went week by week.<edit>had a big ole' post written up, got about halfway through explaining the statistical analysis, and decided not to bother as it was taking too much time. It confirmed my thoughts about Portis relative to the top 12 backs and confirmed what my thoughts were regarding most of the other top 12. Some people want the guy will win them a week by themselves, but stand a chance of losing several games as well. AD in particular is a good example, although I'll still draft AD as top 2 in any format.What was surprising was how solid Lynch was in the games he played. I've been pretty harsh on him and I am now rethinking my attitude toward him.

 

[kethnaab]

You might want to recheck Week 1. Portis: 98 yrds, 1 TD= 15LT: 76 yrds, 1 TD= 13

LT threw a TD pass that week, so he ended up near 20 points.

 

[Synthesizer]

hmmm...how convenient of you to purposely omit decimals and the game that Addai didn't play.

I included the game that Addai missed. I gave that week to Portis and the huge 8 points that he scored.

 

[jurb26]

I seriously can't believe this debate is still going on. I mean come on. When you resort to comparing a RB to guys like LT and Addai (both top 10 RBs) to try and disprove his worth as a quality pick in the 3rd round you've really just starting getting out of hand.

 

[kethnaab]

I seriously can't believe this debate is still going on. I mean come on. When you resort to comparing a RB to guys like LT and Addai (both top 10 RBs) to try and disprove his worth as a quality pick in the 3rd round you've really just starting getting out of hand.

yup.

 

[teamroc]

It's pretty clear what's going on.

We have two guys who aren't big on Portis for 2008. So they're trying to play down his 2007. But why?

It's okay not to like his 2008 outlook. That's valid. Go nuts.

But to look back at a top 5 RB, and go "meh". *lol* Seriously? He was RB16-20 off the board, and ended RB4. End of story. Goodnight. Thanks for posting.

And yes in 3 leagues I owned Portis, I won 2 of them. Maybe I'm biased. And I love how a "negative" is he blew up in the FF playoffs. Yeah I HATE when that happens. Portis REALLY pissed me off how he went off in my FF SB game. Seriously Portis? You show up NOW?! I almost wrote him a stern letter about it, but I was too busy counting my $$$.

 

[TheOriginalDoubledown]

It's pretty clear what's going on.

We have two guys who aren't are big on Portis for 2008. So they're trying to play down his 2007. But why?

It's okay not to like his all about their 2008 outlook. That's valid stratgey. Go nuts.

But to look back at a top 5 RB, and go "meh". *lol* Seriously? He was RB16-20 off the board, and ended RB4. End of story. Goodnight. Thanks for posting.

And yes in 3 leagues I owned Portis, I won 2 of them. Maybe I'm biased. And I love how a "negative" is he blew up in the FF playoffs. Yeah I HATE when that happens. Portis REALLY pissed me off how he went off in my FF SB game. Seriously Portis? You show up NOW?! I almost wrote him a stern letter about it, but I was too busy counting my $$$.

fixed

 

[AnonymousBob]

It's pretty clear what's going on.

We have two guys who aren't are big on Portis for 2008. So they're trying to play down his 2007. But why?

It's okay not to like his all about their 2008 outlook. That's valid stratgey. Go nuts.

But to look back at a top 5 RB, and go "meh". *lol* Seriously? He was RB16-20 off the board, and ended RB4. End of story. Goodnight. Thanks for posting.

And yes in 3 leagues I owned Portis, I won 2 of them. Maybe I'm biased. And I love how a "negative" is he blew up in the FF playoffs. Yeah I HATE when that happens. Portis REALLY pissed me off how he went off in my FF SB game. Seriously Portis? You show up NOW?! I almost wrote him a stern letter about it, but I was too busy counting my $$$.

fixed

I don't understand your fix. Though I'm rather dense.

 

[Sidewinder16]

It's pretty clear what's going on.

We have two guys who aren't are big on Portis for 2008. So they're trying to play down his 2007. But why?

It's okay not to like his all about their 2008 outlook. That's valid stratgey. Go nuts.

But to look back at a top 5 RB, and go "meh". *lol* Seriously? He was RB16-20 off the board, and ended RB4. End of story. Goodnight. Thanks for posting.

And yes in 3 leagues I owned Portis, I won 2 of them. Maybe I'm biased. And I love how a "negative" is he blew up in the FF playoffs. Yeah I HATE when that happens. Portis REALLY pissed me off how he went off in my FF SB game. Seriously Portis? You show up NOW?! I almost wrote him a stern letter about it, but I was too busy counting my $$$.

fixed

I don't understand your fix. Though I'm rather dense.

I could be wrong, but I think he's suggesting that MOP and Synthesizer actually are high on Portis so they are trying to lower people's outlook on him so they can steal him later than where he's currently going. Not sure if the idea is intended to be serious or in jest, though.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I highlighted what I actually wrote during the season...I don't hide in here folks, it's not like I run from debates...but I was not really high on Portis for almost all of last season yet that seems to just get tossed right out the window. We are taking the fact that he did well overall for the season because there were a lot of injuries and guys like Graham and Grant who did not start the season...

The great thing is I have another 3 months to rethink everything I have read in here and decide if I want to take Portis in any of my redrafts assuming I might have a pick in the range of where he is going. Just off the top of my head I think he will be drafted too high...and maybe that's the wrong assumption too.

Good spirited debate from most, and this certainly stirred up an awful lot of emotions for many.

 

[kethnaab]

Good spirited debate from most

agreed. Like I said, the funny part is that when I did the intense stat analysis of the top 12 backs, I realized a few things that make me think Lynch did better than I originally thoughtI now might consider taking him in the 1st round if it is a late pick and the top-line WRs aren't availableSo this has been a productive thread!

 

[awesomeness]

I highlighted what I actually wrote during the season...I don't hide in here folks, it's not like I run from debates...but I was not really high on Portis for almost all of last season yet that seems to just get tossed right out the window. We are taking the fact that he did well overall for the season because there were a lot of injuries and guys like Graham and Grant who did not start the season...The great thing is I have another 3 months to rethink everything I have read in here and decide if I want to take Portis in any of my redrafts assuming I might have a pick in the range of where he is going. Just off the top of my head I think he will be drafted too high...and maybe that's the wrong assumption too.Good spirited debate from most, and this certainly stirred up an awful lot of emotions for many.

i thought this thread was about last season? Hence the title of the thread?

 

[Uruk-Hai]

I highlighted what I actually wrote during the season...I don't hide in here folks, it's not like I run from debates...but I was not really high on Portis for almost all of last season yet that seems to just get tossed right out the window. We are taking the fact that he did well overall for the season because there were a lot of injuries and guys like Graham and Grant who did not start the season...

The great thing is I have another 3 months to rethink everything I have read in here and decide if I want to take Portis in any of my redrafts assuming I might have a pick in the range of where he is going. Just off the top of my head I think he will be drafted too high...and maybe that's the wrong assumption too.

Good spirited debate from most, and this certainly stirred up an awful lot of emotions for many.

i thought this thread was about last season? Hence the title of the thread?

That's what I thought, too. But it's been kind of a moving target, hasn't it?I'll reiterate what I (& others) said earlier:

Besides the actual production CP gave (which was fantastic for his draft spot), Portis owners got the additional advantage of being able to select other positions while waiting on Portis.

He was a RB #2 for most everyone who owned him & performed as a RB #1.

Both of these are reason enough to call him a difference-maker, IMO.

 

[TheOriginalDoubledown]

It's pretty clear what's going on.

We have two guys who aren't are big on Portis for 2008. So they're trying to play down his 2007. But why?

It's okay not to like his all about their 2008 outlook. That's valid stratgey. Go nuts.

But to look back at a top 5 RB, and go "meh". *lol* Seriously? He was RB16-20 off the board, and ended RB4. End of story. Goodnight. Thanks for posting.

And yes in 3 leagues I owned Portis, I won 2 of them. Maybe I'm biased. And I love how a "negative" is he blew up in the FF playoffs. Yeah I HATE when that happens. Portis REALLY pissed me off how he went off in my FF SB game. Seriously Portis? You show up NOW?! I almost wrote him a stern letter about it, but I was too busy counting my $$$.

fixed

I don't understand your fix. Though I'm rather dense.

I could be wrong, but I think he's suggesting that MOP and Synthesizer actually are high on Portis so they are trying to lower people's outlook on him so they can steal him later than where he's currently going. Not sure if the idea is intended to be serious or in jest, though.

That is indeed what I was saying and it was of course sarcasm. I just don't understand if MoP is truly on board with what he is advocating for or if he's playing devil's advocate just to inspire a good debate.as I've previously posted, as well as many others have posted as well, Portis finished top 10 last year by being consistant. MoP alleged that by the time he was having better than average games, he'd already hurt his owners. Consistancy doesn't hurt an owner unless its consitantly bad. Would anyone rather start a guy with extreme peaks and valleys in production and try and figure out which weeks to play them?

Portis was taken in round 2 and 3 last year. He obviously outperformed his draft position last year. HE WAS A STEAL. I really don't think you can dissect the numbers with the intention of showing only the weak points in 1 players season and not do the same for every other player and call your results relevant.

Perhaps MoP is saying that because Portis is now ranked 6th, he will not be the steal he was last year. Thats true, he will go earlier this year and will be taken based on his finish from last year. I don't think there is anything wrong with taking a player at his projected valued pick.

Maybe MoP is stating that his ranking this year is too high, therefore he should be avoided at this spot. It's really hard to say someone is right or wrong in that decision unless they can offer reasons why. Maybe he just has a feeling about him. I can't pull stats from a feeling, therefore I would simply have to disagree and move on. I haven't seen any evidence presented in this thread that says that portis will be a bust or poor value based on last years numbers. I haven't seen any evidence in this thread giving factors that will lower Portis' expected numbers for this season. Selective stats gathering doesn't prove anything other than erroneously making the stats say what the gatherer wants them to. (see physician reports from doctors who worked for big tobacco)

Because I enjoy reading previous posts from MoP, and because he makes intelligent points in them, this one has me baffled. He either has a feeling about Portis and is desperately trying to rationalize it, he is playing devil's advocate to get a good discussion going or maybe he wants people who respect his opinion to drop Portis a few spots in the draft this year?

 

[Maroney=Sped]

It's pretty clear what's going on.

We have two guys who aren't are big on Portis for 2008. So they're trying to play down his 2007. But why?

It's okay not to like his all about their 2008 outlook. That's valid stratgey. Go nuts.

But to look back at a top 5 RB, and go "meh". *lol* Seriously? He was RB16-20 off the board, and ended RB4. End of story. Goodnight. Thanks for posting.

And yes in 3 leagues I owned Portis, I won 2 of them. Maybe I'm biased. And I love how a "negative" is he blew up in the FF playoffs. Yeah I HATE when that happens. Portis REALLY pissed me off how he went off in my FF SB game. Seriously Portis? You show up NOW?! I almost wrote him a stern letter about it, but I was too busy counting my $$$.

fixed

I don't understand your fix. Though I'm rather dense.

I could be wrong, but I think he's suggesting that MOP and Synthesizer actually are high on Portis so they are trying to lower people's outlook on him so they can steal him later than where he's currently going. Not sure if the idea is intended to be serious or in jest, though.

@ the fact that the premise behind this thread is so stupid that people are actually coming up with conspiracy theories to explain it.

 

[NoFBinLA]

Good spirited debate from most, and this certainly stirred up an awful lot of emotions for many.

M, you sure do start some lively debates.I don't remember if someone pointed it out - but in the redraft ranking, despite the 6 spot he sits in, even the staffers are split. In fact only three of the 13 rankings are at 6 - then a couple of 7s, then a handful of 8s, a 9, a pair of tens and a 13.I think what that just goes to show is you aren't totally out on a ledge at this nascent stage in the season - while the 7s and 8s weigh more heavily towards your feeling that Portis is being valued too highly, it;s clear that there are others who are still a little dubious of his 1st round worth.Like you said though, it's a matter to be revisited several times between now and Sept.Also we should keep in mind how annihilated the first round RBs were for a chunk of last year - there were few studs who performed as such for a huge section of the season - last year was an odd one for 1st round fantasy picks - Portis fileld in admirably (or as well as) in place of some of them during the year.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I still can't get over how Synthesizer has not posted his top 12 when one of the basis' for his argument is that no RB that is outscored by a waiver wire guy is worthy of being a first round pick. Ya know, given that after Grant took over he outscored every RB in the league except 1.

I'd just like to know who exactly his first rounders are in that case, given that he apparently only thinks one RB is worthy of being picked in the first round.

In all seriousness, that whole "he's not worthy of a first round pick when he got outscored by waiver wire guys" thing may seriously be the very worst argument I've ever seen on these boards, and I've been here 5 years.

 

[gianmarco]

I still can't get over how Synthesizer has not posted his top 12 when one of the basis' for his argument is that no RB that is outscored by a waiver wire guy is worthy of being a first round pick. Ya know, given that after Grant took over he outscored every RB in the league except 1.I'd just like to know who exactly his first rounders are in that case, given that he apparently only thinks one RB is worthy of being picked in the first round.In all seriousness, that whole "he's not worthy of a first round pick when he got outscored by waiver wire guys" thing may seriously be the very worst argument I've ever seen on these boards, and I've been here 5 years.

It's ok to make an argument that someone is overvalued for where they are going IF you can list better candidates at that spot. Of course, I think a reasonable list of 12 RB's could be made that are listed ahead of Portis. But that list won't be based on last year's #'s by any means and will be based on nothing more than opinion and gut feeling.

 

[Synthesizer]

I still can't get over how Synthesizer has not posted his top 12 when one of the basis' for his argument is that no RB that is outscored by a waiver wire guy is worthy of being a first round pick. Ya know, given that after Grant took over he outscored every RB in the league except 1.I'd just like to know who exactly his first rounders are in that case, given that he apparently only thinks one RB is worthy of being picked in the first round.In all seriousness, that whole "he's not worthy of a first round pick when he got outscored by waiver wire guys" thing may seriously be the very worst argument I've ever seen on these boards, and I've been here 5 years.

I was trying to leave this topic alone but it's kind of tough when someone is attempting to twist your main argument. I'll state my point again..... although it's nice to have a RB2 that is getting you 8-12 points each week, that's not what I want out of my RB1. I want upside and some 20 point games, even if there's a few duds scattered in there too.As an example of how completely average I feel that Portis was last season, I named 3 waiver wire guys that I would have rather had than Portis. Just looking at the year-end stats from last year, I doubt anyone would have thought of Grant, Graham, or Fargas as more valuable than Portis. But looking at the week-to-week scoring for the 2nd half of last season, I would have rather had the 3 waiver wire guys.Here are 9 guys that I have ranked higher than Portis at this point: Tomlinson, Peterson, Westbrook, S.Jackson, Addai, L.Johnson, MBIII, Grant, and Gore. I have Portis ranked at the same level as the other plodders like Lynch, McGahee, and E.Graham.

 

[AnonymousBob]

I was trying to leave this topic alone but it's kind of tough when someone is attempting to twist your main argument. I'll state my point again..... although it's nice to have a RB2 that is getting you 8-12 points each week, that's not what I want out of my RB1. I want upside and some 20 point games, even if there's a few duds scattered in there too.

As an example of how completely average I feel that Portis was last season, I named 3 waiver wire guys that I would have rather had than Portis. Just looking at the year-end stats from last year, I doubt anyone would have thought of Grant, Graham, or Fargas as more valuable than Portis. But looking at the week-to-week scoring for the 2nd half of last season, I would have rather had the 3 waiver wire guys.

Here are 9 guys that I have ranked higher than Portis at this point: Tomlinson, Peterson, Westbrook, S.Jackson, Addai, L.Johnson, MBIII, Grant, and Gore. I have Portis ranked at the same level as the other plodders like Lynch, McGahee, and E.Graham.

The point many of us have tried to make is that Portis was drafted in the third round of drafts last year. And not many people take a rb in the THIRD round and expect #1 rb numbers. Simply because I don't take my first rb until round 17 doesn't mean I should expect #1 numbers from him. You even state what Portis did was nice if he's your #2 rb...which is what he was for the vast majority of his owners last season. You would have rather had THOSE three waiver wire guys. What about Selvin Young? He was a waiver wire guy, would you rather have had him? Wasn't Wright a hot commodity for Cleveland? Would you have been happy with Westbrook's backup? How about Maurice Morris? Bradshaw? The Miami backup? All those guys were ww players. Would you have been content with them instead of Portis? Simply because three actually did something with their opportunites doesn't mean you should bank on it happening again. And if it does happen again best of luck to you in determining which players are going to get hurt and which backup is going to do a very good job. You knew Cadillac was going to suffer a career threatening injury?

And Portis a plodder??? He hasn't ripped off any massive runs but imo I attribute that to the team rather than Portis being a plodder. The guy is pretty fast.

 

[Carolina Hustler]

I'm right there with you MP. Here's a thread from a month ago where I said that he was nothing special last year. I would have rather had E.Graham, R.Grant, or J.Fargas than Portis.

We are in the extreme minority it seems.

That's why the short bus is short.

THIS, is good stuff!