Was drafting a QB in the first round a mistake? (1 Viewer)

[ghostguy123]

Yeah, it's not like RB's ever get hurt and need to be replaced by other RBs. Or that they could move into your flex spot if performing well.

If they're performing well, you just got a good deal on a seventh-round RB, see?

If they're performing well, you just got a good deal on a seventh-round QB, see?

The seventh-round QB is in your starting lineup whether he's performing well or not. The backup RB is only in your lineup if he's performing well.

Right, and either way you are screwed if that pick doesn't perform wellu

For my money though, a guy like romo, Ryan, stafford or similar has a much better chance to score they projected totals than a 7th round rb or WR has to be a productive weekly starter for your team.

If you take a qb round one, you have to man good scoring players in the later rounds. And as I said, that's a lesser chance than one of those 2nd for qbs having a poor season.

 

[FDC]

OK lets consider VBD last year at 36 is sucky Shonn Greene

36th pick off the board is RB2-3 level at minimum. Thats how shallow RB production has gotten.

My point is all about confidence level here. I'm confident I can sift through the Matt Ryans,Griffins, Russel Wilson's off the world and have solid production. I'm not confident at all I can sift through Shonn Greene level RB2s and RB3s and find that. Talent wise QB8-15 is head and shoulders above RB20-30.

You don't really have to do that though. In fact under each draft scenario the team will only be looking for depth at that point.

36th pick is late 3rd round

 

[ghostguy123]

OK lets consider VBD last year at 36 is sucky Shonn Greene

36th pick off the board is RB2-3 level at minimum. Thats how shallow RB production has gotten.

My point is all about confidence level here. I'm confident I can sift through the Matt Ryans,Griffins, Russel Wilson's off the world and have solid production. I'm not confident at all I can sift through Shonn Greene level RB2s and RB3s and find that. Talent wise QB8-15 is head and shoulders above RB20-30.

You don't really have to do that though. In fact under each draft scenario the team will only be looking for depth at that point.

36th pick is late 3rd round

And even if he is talking about 7th round for depth......if you take a qb in the first round, your 7th round pick really needs to be a quality starter for you, not depth. Not if you are passing on a rb-1 or WR-1 in the first round.

 

[FDC]

OK lets consider VBD last year at 36 is sucky Shonn Greene

36th pick off the board is RB2-3 level at minimum. Thats how shallow RB production has gotten.

My point is all about confidence level here. I'm confident I can sift through the Matt Ryans,Griffins, Russel Wilson's off the world and have solid production. I'm not confident at all I can sift through Shonn Greene level RB2s and RB3s and find that. Talent wise QB8-15 is head and shoulders above RB20-30.

Another 6th round RB last year used to disparage taking a QB in round 1.

Last year there was a HUGE amount of value at RB in rounds 2-5 all of which could've been had while taking a QB in round 1 instead of one of the bust RBs. Jamaal Charles, ADP, Doug Martin, CJ Spiller, Trent Richardson, Gore, Bush, Ridley. These were the RBs to have outside of the top 3 taken in the first round.

Point being, last year there was a combination of major question marks surrounding the first round RBs and great value picks in the mid rounds. Both of these facts are the primary reason why it was not a mistake last year to take a QB early. We'll probably never see that kind of value in the mid round RBs again. Last year was a major anomaly in that respect.

As it should be

VBD drafting, or building your roster from the back of the draft forward, should be a common talking point in draft strategy discussion

Look back at last year's ADP. There wasn't really much RB value found in the 4th or 5th actually. The 3rd was very valuable. My point about Greene at VBD 36 hits again. Your chances of hitting on a RB after the 3rd round greatly decrease. You can do it sure but again, its all about confidence level here. A QB taken as your 1st pick forces your hand.

 

[FDC]

RBs taken last year in rounds 4th-8th

Bradshaw

Gore

Mcgahee

BJGE

Bush

Ridley

Benson

Hillis

D Brown

Greene

D Wilson

K Smith

D Williams

Ben Tate

Ryan Williams

Isaac Redman

Beanie Wells

Mark INgram

Michael Bush


Yeesh

 

[FDC]

QBs going in rounds 4-8 this year

Newton

Brady

Ryan

Stafford

Kaepernick

Griffin

Wilson

Luck

Romo

The argument this year should be, is drafting a QB in the 1st 3 rounds a mistake?

 

[ghostguy123]

QBs going in rounds 4-8 this year

Newton

Brady

Ryan

Stafford

Kaepernick

Griffin

Wilson

Luck

Romo

The argument this year should be, is drafting a QB in the 1st 3 rounds a mistake?

I would say first two rounds, but can't fault you for saying three.

I think brees or rodgers in round three would be fine in almost any format.

 

[Leonidas]

I would be thrilled to get Brees in round 3. Actually, I already did that once with pick 3.6 (10 team league 4pt passing TD) and am thrilled with it. No money on the line though.

I don't know how you could pass on Brees in the 3rd in most formats.

 

[butcher boy]

OK lets consider VBD last year at 36 is sucky Shonn Greene

36th pick off the board is RB2-3 level at minimum. Thats how shallow RB production has gotten.

My point is all about confidence level here. I'm confident I can sift through the Matt Ryans,Griffins, Russel Wilson's off the world and have solid production. I'm not confident at all I can sift through Shonn Greene level RB2s and RB3s and find that. Talent wise QB8-15 is head and shoulders above RB20-30.

Another 6th round RB last year used to disparage taking a QB in round 1.

Last year there was a HUGE amount of value at RB in rounds 2-5 all of which could've been had while taking a QB in round 1 instead of one of the bust RBs. Jamaal Charles, ADP, Doug Martin, CJ Spiller, Trent Richardson, Gore, Bush, Ridley. These were the RBs to have outside of the top 3 taken in the first round.

Point being, last year there was a combination of major question marks surrounding the first round RBs and great value picks in the mid rounds. Both of these facts are the primary reason why it was not a mistake last year to take a QB early. We'll probably never see that kind of value in the mid round RBs again. Last year was a major anomaly in that respect.

As it should be

VBD drafting, or building your roster from the back of the draft forward, should be a common talking point in draft strategy discussion

Look back at last year's ADP. There wasn't really much RB value found in the 4th or 5th actually. The 3rd was very valuable. My point about Greene at VBD 36 hits again. Your chances of hitting on a RB after the 3rd round greatly decrease. You can do it sure but again, its all about confidence level here. A QB taken as your 1st pick forces your hand.

No it shouldn't. As somebody else said, even if you drafted a QB in round 1, by round 6, you should have had enough backs to where anyone in that range was a second backup.

Drafting a QB in round 1, you still could've had a backfield consisting of ADP, Ridley, and Martin or some other decent combination. There were more hits than misses in rounds 2-5.

What drafting a QB in round 1 did was allow you to avoid getting stuck with one of the many first round RB busts.

Yes, there was value to be had in QBs later in the draft. There always is. This doesn't mean taking one early was a mistake last year.

 

[Anarchy99]

To play the role of Captain Obvious here, if your league that you are familiar with generally does not take QBs in the first round or two, I might not kill myself to take one there. If no one else will do it, why take one too early when you essentially know that you can wait until the third round.

However, I think there is plenty of evidence that supports that taking a QB in the first or second round has been justified (again, with scoring and roster requirements taken into account).

 

[ghostguy123]

I would be thrilled to get Brees in round 3. Actually, I already did that once with pick 3.6 (10 team league 4pt passing TD) and am thrilled with it. No money on the line though.

I don't know how you could pass on Brees in the 3rd in most formats.

Nobody is passing on Brees in "most" formats.

I said it would be GOOD in most formats.

One format it isnt is 12 team PPR (1.5 PR for TE), in a 26 round draft, best ball style. No waivers, no trades, no lineup changes. The site takes your best possible scoring lineup combination each week. I passed on both Rodgers and Brees in round 4 in this format. And every draft I have seen, neither of them have gone earlier than like late 3rd, and in most cases they go in the 4th.

 

[ghostguy123]

OK lets consider VBD last year at 36 is sucky Shonn Greene

36th pick off the board is RB2-3 level at minimum. Thats how shallow RB production has gotten.

My point is all about confidence level here. I'm confident I can sift through the Matt Ryans,Griffins, Russel Wilson's off the world and have solid production. I'm not confident at all I can sift through Shonn Greene level RB2s and RB3s and find that. Talent wise QB8-15 is head and shoulders above RB20-30.

Another 6th round RB last year used to disparage taking a QB in round 1.

Last year there was a HUGE amount of value at RB in rounds 2-5 all of which could've been had while taking a QB in round 1 instead of one of the bust RBs. Jamaal Charles, ADP, Doug Martin, CJ Spiller, Trent Richardson, Gore, Bush, Ridley. These were the RBs to have outside of the top 3 taken in the first round.

Point being, last year there was a combination of major question marks surrounding the first round RBs and great value picks in the mid rounds. Both of these facts are the primary reason why it was not a mistake last year to take a QB early. We'll probably never see that kind of value in the mid round RBs again. Last year was a major anomaly in that respect.

As it should be

VBD drafting, or building your roster from the back of the draft forward, should be a common talking point in draft strategy discussion

Look back at last year's ADP. There wasn't really much RB value found in the 4th or 5th actually. The 3rd was very valuable. My point about Greene at VBD 36 hits again. Your chances of hitting on a RB after the 3rd round greatly decrease. You can do it sure but again, its all about confidence level here. A QB taken as your 1st pick forces your hand.

No it shouldn't. As somebody else said, even if you drafted a QB in round 1, by round 6, you should have had enough backs to where anyone in that range was a second backup.

Drafting a QB in round 1, you still could've had a backfield consisting of ADP, Ridley, and Martin or some other decent combination. There were more hits than misses in rounds 2-5.

What drafting a QB in round 1 did was allow you to avoid getting stuck with one of the many first round RB busts.

Yes, there was value to be had in QBs later in the draft. There always is. This doesn't mean taking one early was a mistake last year.

You name like 3 out of 25 RBs though. The hit rate on RBs after round 3 is astronomically lower than getting good production from a QB as late at round 7 or 8. Of course if you hit on all your picks rounds 2-7, then your 1st round pick can be a damn kicker and you will win the league.

Rodgers and Hillman..................or Rice and ROmo

It's not 100% as simple at which combo is better between round 1QB and round 7 Rb.......compared to round 1 RB and round 7 Qb............but that is the basics of it.

 

[Anarchy99]

I would be thrilled to get Brees in round 3. Actually, I already did that once with pick 3.6 (10 team league 4pt passing TD) and am thrilled with it. No money on the line though.

I don't know how you could pass on Brees in the 3rd in most formats.

Nobody is passing on Brees in "most" formats.

I said it would be GOOD in most formats.

One format it isnt is 12 team PPR (1.5 PR for TE), in a 26 round draft, best ball style. No waivers, no trades, no lineup changes. The site takes your best possible scoring lineup combination each week. I passed on both Rodgers and Brees in round 4 in this format. And every draft I have seen, neither of them have gone earlier than like late 3rd, and in most cases they go in the 4th.

Best ball is an entirely different animal. In leagues where you have to make a choice of who to play, having a true stud QB is pure gold. That's the problem with QBBC in a submit a weekly lineup league. People end up starting the QB that throws for 150 yards with no TDs with 3 picks while leaving the guy that went for 360 with 3 TDs and another rushing TD on the bench.

But in best ball leagues, you can get as good or even better production from loading up on average QBs and having lots of them, as the chances are pretty good that one of them will have a good week. In best ball leagues, I would generally never consider a QB in the early rounds, as their value gets flushed down the drain by the best ball element.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

OK lets consider VBD last year at 36 is sucky Shonn Greene

36th pick off the board is RB2-3 level at minimum. Thats how shallow RB production has gotten.

My point is all about confidence level here. I'm confident I can sift through the Matt Ryans,Griffins, Russel Wilson's off the world and have solid production. I'm not confident at all I can sift through Shonn Greene level RB2s and RB3s and find that. Talent wise QB8-15 is head and shoulders above RB20-30.

Another 6th round RB last year used to disparage taking a QB in round 1.

Last year there was a HUGE amount of value at RB in rounds 2-5 all of which could've been had while taking a QB in round 1 instead of one of the bust RBs. Jamaal Charles, ADP, Doug Martin, CJ Spiller, Trent Richardson, Gore, Bush, Ridley. These were the RBs to have outside of the top 3 taken in the first round.

Point being, last year there was a combination of major question marks surrounding the first round RBs and great value picks in the mid rounds. Both of these facts are the primary reason why it was not a mistake last year to take a QB early. We'll probably never see that kind of value in the mid round RBs again. Last year was a major anomaly in that respect.

As it should be

VBD drafting, or building your roster from the back of the draft forward, should be a common talking point in draft strategy discussion

Look back at last year's ADP. There wasn't really much RB value found in the 4th or 5th actually. The 3rd was very valuable. My point about Greene at VBD 36 hits again. Your chances of hitting on a RB after the 3rd round greatly decrease. You can do it sure but again, its all about confidence level here. A QB taken as your 1st pick forces your hand.

No it shouldn't. As somebody else said, even if you drafted a QB in round 1, by round 6, you should have had enough backs to where anyone in that range was a second backup.

Drafting a QB in round 1, you still could've had a backfield consisting of ADP, Ridley, and Martin or some other decent combination. There were more hits than misses in rounds 2-5.

What drafting a QB in round 1 did was allow you to avoid getting stuck with one of the many first round RB busts.

Yes, there was value to be had in QBs later in the draft. There always is. This doesn't mean taking one early was a mistake last year.

You name like 3 out of 25 RBs though. The hit rate on RBs after round 3 is astronomically lower than getting good production from a QB as late at round 7 or 8. Of course if you hit on all your picks rounds 2-7, then your 1st round pick can be a damn kicker and you will win the league.

Rodgers and Hillman..................or Rice and ROmo

It's not 100% as simple at which combo is better between round 1QB and round 7 Rb.......compared to round 1 RB and round 7 Qb............but that is the basics of it.

It's not that AT ALL. I'm not advocating taking a QB in round 1 but go back and see what I posted earlier. That comparison is fabricated to make your point.

 

[butcher boy]

OK lets consider VBD last year at 36 is sucky Shonn Greene

36th pick off the board is RB2-3 level at minimum. Thats how shallow RB production has gotten.

My point is all about confidence level here. I'm confident I can sift through the Matt Ryans,Griffins, Russel Wilson's off the world and have solid production. I'm not confident at all I can sift through Shonn Greene level RB2s and RB3s and find that. Talent wise QB8-15 is head and shoulders above RB20-30.

Another 6th round RB last year used to disparage taking a QB in round 1.

Last year there was a HUGE amount of value at RB in rounds 2-5 all of which could've been had while taking a QB in round 1 instead of one of the bust RBs. Jamaal Charles, ADP, Doug Martin, CJ Spiller, Trent Richardson, Gore, Bush, Ridley. These were the RBs to have outside of the top 3 taken in the first round.

Point being, last year there was a combination of major question marks surrounding the first round RBs and great value picks in the mid rounds. Both of these facts are the primary reason why it was not a mistake last year to take a QB early. We'll probably never see that kind of value in the mid round RBs again. Last year was a major anomaly in that respect.

As it should be

VBD drafting, or building your roster from the back of the draft forward, should be a common talking point in draft strategy discussion

Look back at last year's ADP. There wasn't really much RB value found in the 4th or 5th actually. The 3rd was very valuable. My point about Greene at VBD 36 hits again. Your chances of hitting on a RB after the 3rd round greatly decrease. You can do it sure but again, its all about confidence level here. A QB taken as your 1st pick forces your hand.

No it shouldn't. As somebody else said, even if you drafted a QB in round 1, by round 6, you should have had enough backs to where anyone in that range was a second backup.

Drafting a QB in round 1, you still could've had a backfield consisting of ADP, Ridley, and Martin or some other decent combination. There were more hits than misses in rounds 2-5.

What drafting a QB in round 1 did was allow you to avoid getting stuck with one of the many first round RB busts.

Yes, there was value to be had in QBs later in the draft. There always is. This doesn't mean taking one early was a mistake last year.

You name like 3 out of 25 RBs though. The hit rate on RBs after round 3 is astronomically lower than getting good production from a QB as late at round 7 or 8. Of course if you hit on all your picks rounds 2-7, then your 1st round pick can be a damn kicker and you will win the league.

Rodgers and Hillman..................or Rice and ROmo

It's not 100% as simple at which combo is better between round 1QB and round 7 Rb.......compared to round 1 RB and round 7 Qb............but that is the basics of it.

I could go with other combo's. Jamaal Charles, Richardson, Bush perhaps? There was a lot of value at RB in those rounds last year. This year is a different story. The RBs in rounds 3 on scare me, frankly.

Also, with your example of Rice and Romo, no one really advocated taking a QB over the top 3 backs going into last year. It's mainly a discussion revolving the mid-late first round.

I'm not talking about taking a QB early as a general practice. I just see last year as a large outlier. Taking a QB in round 1 was a simple product of wanting safe, studly numbers as opposed to risking taking a questionable running back.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

It's not 100% as simple at which combo is better between round 1QB and round 7 Rb.......compared to round 1 RB and round 7 Qb............but that is the basics of it.

From earlier in the thread:

Why do people keep refering to the 6th and 7th round RBs as a way to disparage taking a QB in round 1? Seems like a "red herring" argument.

If I take Aaron Rodgers at the end of round 1 - why am I starting a 6th or 7th round RB?

Last time I checked there's 4 rounds between 1 and 6 and 5 rounds between 6 and 7 - perhaps I can grab a RB or 2 in those rounds?

Simplicity, but it isn't that accurate as has been pointed out.

In which case the difference that you have a round 2 RB instead of a round 1 RB. And a round 3 RB/WR instead of a round 2 RB/WR. And...and...down the line.

Exactly - but we're opening up a whole different set of comparisons then

Its

QB1 + RB2 + WR3 + RB4 + WR5 +TE6

v.

RB1 + RB2 + WR3 + WR4 + TE5 + QB6 (with the numbers being round drafted not rankings)

for simplicity sake.

That's a much different argument than saying I'd rather have CJ Spille and Tony Romo then Aaron Rodgers and Shane Vereen - those making that argument against taking a QB in round 1 are being disingenous or just not thinking clearly

 

[ghostguy123]

I could go with other combo's. Jamaal Charles, Richardson, Bush perhaps? There was a lot of value at RB in those rounds last year. This year is a different story. The RBs in rounds 3 on scare me, frankly.

Also, with your example of Rice and Romo, no one really advocated taking a QB over the top 3 backs going into last year. It's mainly a discussion revolving the mid-late first round.

I'm not talking about taking a QB early as a general practice. I just see last year as a large outlier. Taking a QB in round 1 was a simple product of wanting safe, studly numbers as opposed to risking taking a questionable running back.

I am talking about Rice in the later part of the 1st THIS year, along with a guy like Romo/Stafford/Ryan/RG3/Luck much later like 7th or 8th.

 

[FDC]

What drafting a QB in round 1 did was allow you to avoid getting stuck with one of the many first round RB busts.

Stafford was a 1st round QB bust last year.

OK lets consider VBD last year at 36 is sucky Shonn Greene

36th pick off the board is RB2-3 level at minimum. Thats how shallow RB production has gotten.

My point is all about confidence level here. I'm confident I can sift through the Matt Ryans,Griffins, Russel Wilson's off the world and have solid production. I'm not confident at all I can sift through Shonn Greene level RB2s and RB3s and find that. Talent wise QB8-15 is head and shoulders above RB20-30.

Another 6th round RB last year used to disparage taking a QB in round 1.

Last year there was a HUGE amount of value at RB in rounds 2-5 all of which could've been had while taking a QB in round 1 instead of one of the bust RBs. Jamaal Charles, ADP, Doug Martin, CJ Spiller, Trent Richardson, Gore, Bush, Ridley. These were the RBs to have outside of the top 3 taken in the first round.

Point being, last year there was a combination of major question marks surrounding the first round RBs and great value picks in the mid rounds. Both of these facts are the primary reason why it was not a mistake last year to take a QB early. We'll probably never see that kind of value in the mid round RBs again. Last year was a major anomaly in that respect.

As it should be

VBD drafting, or building your roster from the back of the draft forward, should be a common talking point in draft strategy discussion

Look back at last year's ADP. There wasn't really much RB value found in the 4th or 5th actually. The 3rd was very valuable. My point about Greene at VBD 36 hits again. Your chances of hitting on a RB after the 3rd round greatly decrease. You can do it sure but again, its all about confidence level here. A QB taken as your 1st pick forces your hand.

No it shouldn't. As somebody else said, even if you drafted a QB in round 1, by round 6, you should have had enough backs to where anyone in that range was a second backup.

Drafting a QB in round 1, you still could've had a backfield consisting of ADP, Ridley, and Martin or some other decent combination. There were more hits than misses in rounds 2-5.

What drafting a QB in round 1 did was allow you to avoid getting stuck with one of the many first round RB busts.

Yes, there was value to be had in QBs later in the draft. There always is. This doesn't mean taking one early was a mistake last year.

You name like 3 out of 25 RBs though. The hit rate on RBs after round 3 is astronomically lower than getting good production from a QB as late at round 7 or 8. Of course if you hit on all your picks rounds 2-7, then your 1st round pick can be a damn kicker and you will win the league.

Rodgers and Hillman..................or Rice and ROmo

It's not 100% as simple at which combo is better between round 1QB and round 7 Rb.......compared to round 1 RB and round 7 Qb............but that is the basics of it.

Exactly. the biased cherry picking of examples to suit an argument is getting old

 

[ghostguy123]

It's not 100% as simple at which combo is better between round 1QB and round 7 Rb.......compared to round 1 RB and round 7 Qb............but that is the basics of it.

From earlier in the thread:

Why do people keep refering to the 6th and 7th round RBs as a way to disparage taking a QB in round 1? Seems like a "red herring" argument.

If I take Aaron Rodgers at the end of round 1 - why am I starting a 6th or 7th round RB?

Last time I checked there's 4 rounds between 1 and 6 and 5 rounds between 6 and 7 - perhaps I can grab a RB or 2 in those rounds?

Simplicity, but it isn't that accurate as has been pointed out.

In which case the difference that you have a round 2 RB instead of a round 1 RB. And a round 3 RB/WR instead of a round 2 RB/WR. And...and...down the line.

Exactly - but we're opening up a whole different set of comparisons then

Its

QB1 + RB2 + WR3 + RB4 + WR5 +TE6

v.

RB1 + RB2 + WR3 + WR4 + TE5 + QB6 (with the numbers being round drafted not rankings)

for simplicity sake.

That's a much different argument than saying I'd rather have CJ Spille and Tony Romo then Aaron Rodgers and Shane Vereen - those making that argument against taking a QB in round 1 are being disingenous or just not thinking clearly

If I take a RB in round 1, and know that I will be taking a QB in like round 7, rounds 2-6 give me all kinds of options to take best value that falls.

I wont have to worry about taking a RB in round 3 when there is a major run on RBs, and have to pass on a great value pick at WR just to make sure I have a playable starting RB.

Speaking this season, taking a RB in round 1 and a QB later not only (to me obviously) will score more points than doing it the other way around...........getting that RB in round 1 will not force your hand to take any shaky RBs you dont like in rounds 2-6 while passing on WRs you like a lot just to fill out a starting lineup.

Once you go QB in round 1, you are looking for a RB every single pick from then on hoping some guys fall to you.

edit.........................league size an scoring system dependent

haha, that needs to be my sig "every post I make is is variable depending on league format and rules", lol. It's amazing how many people on here seem to assume that every post people make means they think that no matter what the league format is.

 

[ghostguy123]

Exactly. the biased cherry picking of examples to suit an argument is getting old

I really dont mind him cherry picking examples at all. I could do the same......thing is, I can cherry pick MORE examples in my favor since the QBs succeeded at a MUCH higher rate than RBs taken in the later rounds.

And as I said. If you picked Peterson in round 3 and Martin in round 4, you likely won your league even if you took a kicker or a defense in round 1.

 

[Anarchy99]

OK lets consider VBD last year at 36 is sucky Shonn Greene

36th pick off the board is RB2-3 level at minimum. Thats how shallow RB production has gotten.

My point is all about confidence level here. I'm confident I can sift through the Matt Ryans,Griffins, Russel Wilson's off the world and have solid production. I'm not confident at all I can sift through Shonn Greene level RB2s and RB3s and find that. Talent wise QB8-15 is head and shoulders above RB20-30.

Another 6th round RB last year used to disparage taking a QB in round 1.

Last year there was a HUGE amount of value at RB in rounds 2-5 all of which could've been had while taking a QB in round 1 instead of one of the bust RBs. Jamaal Charles, ADP, Doug Martin, CJ Spiller, Trent Richardson, Gore, Bush, Ridley. These were the RBs to have outside of the top 3 taken in the first round.

Point being, last year there was a combination of major question marks surrounding the first round RBs and great value picks in the mid rounds. Both of these facts are the primary reason why it was not a mistake last year to take a QB early. We'll probably never see that kind of value in the mid round RBs again. Last year was a major anomaly in that respect.

As it should be

VBD drafting, or building your roster from the back of the draft forward, should be a common talking point in draft strategy discussion

Look back at last year's ADP. There wasn't really much RB value found in the 4th or 5th actually. The 3rd was very valuable. My point about Greene at VBD 36 hits again. Your chances of hitting on a RB after the 3rd round greatly decrease. You can do it sure but again, its all about confidence level here. A QB taken as your 1st pick forces your hand.

No it shouldn't. As somebody else said, even if you drafted a QB in round 1, by round 6, you should have had enough backs to where anyone in that range was a second backup.

Drafting a QB in round 1, you still could've had a backfield consisting of ADP, Ridley, and Martin or some other decent combination. There were more hits than misses in rounds 2-5.

What drafting a QB in round 1 did was allow you to avoid getting stuck with one of the many first round RB busts.

Yes, there was value to be had in QBs later in the draft. There always is. This doesn't mean taking one early was a mistake last year.

You name like 3 out of 25 RBs though. The hit rate on RBs after round 3 is astronomically lower than getting good production from a QB as late at round 7 or 8. Of course if you hit on all your picks rounds 2-7, then your 1st round pick can be a damn kicker and you will win the league.

Rodgers and Hillman..................or Rice and ROmo

It's not 100% as simple at which combo is better between round 1QB and round 7 Rb.......compared to round 1 RB and round 7 Qb............but that is the basics of it.

This argument has been made every year for the past 10 years. And it's just plain not true. WHO CARES which RB you get in Round 7. All that matters is getting the scoring advantage from Brees. Give me Aaron Hernandez in the 7th round. That's how insignificant that pick is. There will be other RBs that will serve as that team's RB1 and RB2. NOT the guy from round 7.

In your example, the real comparison is Rice as your RB1 vs. the guy I take in Round 2 as my RB1 and the difference in Brees and Romo. For argument's sake, let's say both team's take what would be their RB2 in the next round, so that would not chance the outcome of the comparison. So the math last year worked out like this

Romo + Rice in 0 ppr leagues in 2012 combined for 358 + 222 = 580 points. Brees scored 442 points on his own. 580 - 442 = 138 points.

Last year, there were 22 running backs that scored 138 points or more in 0 ppr leagues. 7 of those 22 guys were in the Top 10 RBs. But that means 3 of the Top 10 were not. And it also means that there were 15 other RBs that you could have paired with Brees to outscore your Romo and Rice combo . . . even if I got a used tongue depressor with my 7th round pick.

Sure, Romo is a decent fantasy option available in the 7th round. But he does not score like Drew Brees does, and just because he is a middle of the road fantasy starter does not make your QB - RB combo a better scoring tandem than Brees and a moldy piece of bread. Anyone with any fantasy sense should be able to come up with one RB pick somewhere in the draft that will produce as a high end RB3, as Brees and basically and a high end RB3 will match your Rice and Romo combo in many leagues (especially 0 ppr leagues). And let's not forget that maybe I won't draft Aaron Hernandez, a tongue depressor, or a moldy piece of bread with my 7th round pick.

 

[butcher boy]

I could go with other combo's. Jamaal Charles, Richardson, Bush perhaps? There was a lot of value at RB in those rounds last year. This year is a different story. The RBs in rounds 3 on scare me, frankly.

Also, with your example of Rice and Romo, no one really advocated taking a QB over the top 3 backs going into last year. It's mainly a discussion revolving the mid-late first round.

I'm not talking about taking a QB early as a general practice. I just see last year as a large outlier. Taking a QB in round 1 was a simple product of wanting safe, studly numbers as opposed to risking taking a questionable running back.

I am talking about Rice in the later part of the 1st THIS year, along with a guy like Romo/Stafford/Ryan/RG3/Luck much later like 7th or 8th.

The intent of this thread was to argue about taking a QB early LAST year. I, and multiple people have repeatedly said that this year is a completely different story.

 

[ghostguy123]

OK lets consider VBD last year at 36 is sucky Shonn Greene

36th pick off the board is RB2-3 level at minimum. Thats how shallow RB production has gotten.

My point is all about confidence level here. I'm confident I can sift through the Matt Ryans,Griffins, Russel Wilson's off the world and have solid production. I'm not confident at all I can sift through Shonn Greene level RB2s and RB3s and find that. Talent wise QB8-15 is head and shoulders above RB20-30.

Another 6th round RB last year used to disparage taking a QB in round 1.

Last year there was a HUGE amount of value at RB in rounds 2-5 all of which could've been had while taking a QB in round 1 instead of one of the bust RBs. Jamaal Charles, ADP, Doug Martin, CJ Spiller, Trent Richardson, Gore, Bush, Ridley. These were the RBs to have outside of the top 3 taken in the first round.

Point being, last year there was a combination of major question marks surrounding the first round RBs and great value picks in the mid rounds. Both of these facts are the primary reason why it was not a mistake last year to take a QB early. We'll probably never see that kind of value in the mid round RBs again. Last year was a major anomaly in that respect.

As it should be

VBD drafting, or building your roster from the back of the draft forward, should be a common talking point in draft strategy discussion

Look back at last year's ADP. There wasn't really much RB value found in the 4th or 5th actually. The 3rd was very valuable. My point about Greene at VBD 36 hits again. Your chances of hitting on a RB after the 3rd round greatly decrease. You can do it sure but again, its all about confidence level here. A QB taken as your 1st pick forces your hand.

No it shouldn't. As somebody else said, even if you drafted a QB in round 1, by round 6, you should have had enough backs to where anyone in that range was a second backup.

Drafting a QB in round 1, you still could've had a backfield consisting of ADP, Ridley, and Martin or some other decent combination. There were more hits than misses in rounds 2-5.

What drafting a QB in round 1 did was allow you to avoid getting stuck with one of the many first round RB busts.

Yes, there was value to be had in QBs later in the draft. There always is. This doesn't mean taking one early was a mistake last year.

You name like 3 out of 25 RBs though. The hit rate on RBs after round 3 is astronomically lower than getting good production from a QB as late at round 7 or 8. Of course if you hit on all your picks rounds 2-7, then your 1st round pick can be a damn kicker and you will win the league.

Rodgers and Hillman..................or Rice and ROmo

It's not 100% as simple at which combo is better between round 1QB and round 7 Rb.......compared to round 1 RB and round 7 Qb............but that is the basics of it.

This argument has been made every year for the past 10 years. And it's just plain not true. WHO CARES which RB you get in Round 7. All that matters is getting the scoring advantage from Brees. Give me Aaron Hernandez in the 7th round. That's how insignificant that pick is. There will be other RBs that will serve as that team's RB1 and RB2. NOT the guy from round 7.

In your example, the real comparison is Rice as your RB1 vs. the guy I take in Round 2 as my RB1 and the difference in Brees and Romo. For argument's sake, let's say both team's take what would be their RB2 in the next round, so that would not chance the outcome of the comparison. So the math last year worked out like this

Romo + Rice in 0 ppr leagues in 2012 combined for 358 + 222 = 580 points. Brees scored 442 points on his own. 580 - 442 = 138 points.

Last year, there were 22 running backs that scored 138 points or more in 0 ppr leagues. 7 of those 22 guys were in the Top 10 RBs. But that means 3 of the Top 10 were not. And it also means that there were 15 other RBs that you could have paired with Brees to outscore your Romo and Rice combo . . . even if I got a used tongue depressor with my 7th round pick.

Sure, Romo is a decent fantasy option available in the 7th round. But he does not score like Drew Brees does, and just because he is a middle of the road fantasy starter does not make your QB - RB combo a better scoring tandem than Brees and a moldy piece of bread. Anyone with any fantasy sense should be able to come up with one RB pick somewhere in the draft that will produce as a high end RB3, as Brees and basically and a high end RB3 will match your Rice and Romo combo in many leagues (especially 0 ppr leagues). And let's not forget that maybe I won't draft Aaron Hernandez, a tongue depressor, or a moldy piece of bread with my 7th round pick.

you seem to be talking about a different league format than me

Also, round 7 pick is NOT insignificant, if you draft a QB who scores withing 50-60 of Brees and Rodgers, which has a very good chance of happening.

And the scoring advantage of taking a 260 point PPR RB over what you get at that spot totally makes up for what you get in an advantage from Rodgers/Brees over Ryan/Romo/Stafford/RG3/Luck/Wislon/Kepernick

I mean, any argument you can make is shot to hell when you say round 7 is insignificant as long as you get a top QB in round 1. Silly.

Done talking to you. Based on the nmbers you are throwing out, you are talkijg about a different scoring system than I am anyway obviously

 

[ghostguy123]

I could go with other combo's. Jamaal Charles, Richardson, Bush perhaps? There was a lot of value at RB in those rounds last year. This year is a different story. The RBs in rounds 3 on scare me, frankly.

Also, with your example of Rice and Romo, no one really advocated taking a QB over the top 3 backs going into last year. It's mainly a discussion revolving the mid-late first round.

I'm not talking about taking a QB early as a general practice. I just see last year as a large outlier. Taking a QB in round 1 was a simple product of wanting safe, studly numbers as opposed to risking taking a questionable running back.

I am talking about Rice in the later part of the 1st THIS year, along with a guy like Romo/Stafford/Ryan/RG3/Luck much later like 7th or 8th.

The intent of this thread was to argue about taking a QB early LAST year. I, and multiple people have repeatedly said that this year is a completely different story.

And I also said, last year or this year, I can provide more examples where a later 1st round RB was the better play than a later 1st round QB.

 

[Anarchy99]

To further the discussion about LAST YEAR, In a 14 team league, I went Brees and Welker at the 14/15 turn. According to many, I should have been dead in the water because I had no stud RB in the first or second round. But I ended up taking Spiller at pick 71 and Ridley at pick 98. So I took Brees and STILL ended up with 2 RB1s on my team and ended up 3rd in scoring drafting from the 14th hole.

 

[butcher boy]

I could go with other combo's. Jamaal Charles, Richardson, Bush perhaps? There was a lot of value at RB in those rounds last year. This year is a different story. The RBs in rounds 3 on scare me, frankly.

Also, with your example of Rice and Romo, no one really advocated taking a QB over the top 3 backs going into last year. It's mainly a discussion revolving the mid-late first round.

I'm not talking about taking a QB early as a general practice. I just see last year as a large outlier. Taking a QB in round 1 was a simple product of wanting safe, studly numbers as opposed to risking taking a questionable running back.

I am talking about Rice in the later part of the 1st THIS year, along with a guy like Romo/Stafford/Ryan/RG3/Luck much later like 7th or 8th.

The intent of this thread was to argue about taking a QB early LAST year. I, and multiple people have repeatedly said that this year is a completely different story.

And I also said, last year or this year, I can provide more examples where a later 1st round RB was the better play than a later 1st round QB.

You're going to tell me that drafting one of McFadden, Mathews (before his injury he was round 1 ADP), CJ2K, or Demarco Murray were good picks instead of a stud QB like Rodgers, Brees, or Brady?

The only one I might give you is CJ2K but he had such a slow start that I'm really reluctant. The others were busts. Plain and simple.

 

[FDC]

To further the discussion about LAST YEAR, In a 14 team league, I went Brees and Welker at the 14/15 turn. According to many, I should have been dead in the water because I had no stud RB in the first or second round. But I ended up taking Spiller at pick 71 and Ridley at pick 98. So I took Brees and STILL ended up with 2 RB1s on my team and ended up 3rd in scoring drafting from the 14th hole.

cherry picking examples is furthering the discussion?

 

[Anarchy99]

OK lets consider VBD last year at 36 is sucky Shonn Greene

36th pick off the board is RB2-3 level at minimum. Thats how shallow RB production has gotten.

My point is all about confidence level here. I'm confident I can sift through the Matt Ryans,Griffins, Russel Wilson's off the world and have solid production. I'm not confident at all I can sift through Shonn Greene level RB2s and RB3s and find that. Talent wise QB8-15 is head and shoulders above RB20-30.

Another 6th round RB last year used to disparage taking a QB in round 1.

Last year there was a HUGE amount of value at RB in rounds 2-5 all of which could've been had while taking a QB in round 1 instead of one of the bust RBs. Jamaal Charles, ADP, Doug Martin, CJ Spiller, Trent Richardson, Gore, Bush, Ridley. These were the RBs to have outside of the top 3 taken in the first round.

Point being, last year there was a combination of major question marks surrounding the first round RBs and great value picks in the mid rounds. Both of these facts are the primary reason why it was not a mistake last year to take a QB early. We'll probably never see that kind of value in the mid round RBs again. Last year was a major anomaly in that respect.

As it should be

VBD drafting, or building your roster from the back of the draft forward, should be a common talking point in draft strategy discussion

Look back at last year's ADP. There wasn't really much RB value found in the 4th or 5th actually. The 3rd was very valuable. My point about Greene at VBD 36 hits again. Your chances of hitting on a RB after the 3rd round greatly decrease. You can do it sure but again, its all about confidence level here. A QB taken as your 1st pick forces your hand.

No it shouldn't. As somebody else said, even if you drafted a QB in round 1, by round 6, you should have had enough backs to where anyone in that range was a second backup.

Drafting a QB in round 1, you still could've had a backfield consisting of ADP, Ridley, and Martin or some other decent combination. There were more hits than misses in rounds 2-5.

What drafting a QB in round 1 did was allow you to avoid getting stuck with one of the many first round RB busts.

Yes, there was value to be had in QBs later in the draft. There always is. This doesn't mean taking one early was a mistake last year.

You name like 3 out of 25 RBs though. The hit rate on RBs after round 3 is astronomically lower than getting good production from a QB as late at round 7 or 8. Of course if you hit on all your picks rounds 2-7, then your 1st round pick can be a damn kicker and you will win the league.

Rodgers and Hillman..................or Rice and ROmo

It's not 100% as simple at which combo is better between round 1QB and round 7 Rb.......compared to round 1 RB and round 7 Qb............but that is the basics of it.

This argument has been made every year for the past 10 years. And it's just plain not true. WHO CARES which RB you get in Round 7. All that matters is getting the scoring advantage from Brees. Give me Aaron Hernandez in the 7th round. That's how insignificant that pick is. There will be other RBs that will serve as that team's RB1 and RB2. NOT the guy from round 7.

In your example, the real comparison is Rice as your RB1 vs. the guy I take in Round 2 as my RB1 and the difference in Brees and Romo. For argument's sake, let's say both team's take what would be their RB2 in the next round, so that would not chance the outcome of the comparison. So the math last year worked out like this

Romo + Rice in 0 ppr leagues in 2012 combined for 358 + 222 = 580 points. Brees scored 442 points on his own. 580 - 442 = 138 points.

Last year, there were 22 running backs that scored 138 points or more in 0 ppr leagues. 7 of those 22 guys were in the Top 10 RBs. But that means 3 of the Top 10 were not. And it also means that there were 15 other RBs that you could have paired with Brees to outscore your Romo and Rice combo . . . even if I got a used tongue depressor with my 7th round pick.

Sure, Romo is a decent fantasy option available in the 7th round. But he does not score like Drew Brees does, and just because he is a middle of the road fantasy starter does not make your QB - RB combo a better scoring tandem than Brees and a moldy piece of bread. Anyone with any fantasy sense should be able to come up with one RB pick somewhere in the draft that will produce as a high end RB3, as Brees and basically and a high end RB3 will match your Rice and Romo combo in many leagues (especially 0 ppr leagues). And let's not forget that maybe I won't draft Aaron Hernandez, a tongue depressor, or a moldy piece of bread with my 7th round pick.

you seem to be talking about a different league format than me

Also, round 7 pick is NOT insignificant, if you draft a QB who scores withing 50-60 of Brees and Rodgers, which has a very good chance of happening.

And the scoring advantage of taking a 260 point PPR RB over what you get at that spot totally makes up for what you get in an advantage from Rodgers/Brees over Ryan/Romo/Stafford/RG3/Luck/Wislon/Kepernick

I mean, any argument you can make is shot to hell when you say round 7 is insignificant as long as you get a top QB in round 1. Silly.

Done talking to you. Based on the nmbers you are throwing out, you are talkijg about a different scoring system than I am anyway obviously

I pulled numbers that FBG cites as standard scoring, so you can not like the numbers all you want. You are making a mathematical argument without using math.

And you COMPLETELY left out the predictability factor in drafting a Rodgers or a Brees. WE KNOW what they are going to produce. We DON'T KNOW what any but the top few RBs will produce and whether they will stay healthy. We also DON'T KNOW what the 7th round QB will produce. The probability is very high that Rodgers and Brees will produce similar numbers to what they produced the last few years. The ASSUMPTION is that there will be another QB that will take a step forward and outproduce his career bests to shave some of the difference form the elite QBs.

Sure, every once in a while there is a QB that far outpaces his draft slot (like Newton or RGIII), but those are rare exceptions.

And to clarify, I AM NOT suggesting that people HAVE to take QBs in Round 1 or 2. I am only saying that it is not a mortal sin to consider it and it probably will help you more than hurt you.

 

[Anarchy99]

To further the discussion about LAST YEAR, In a 14 team league, I went Brees and Welker at the 14/15 turn. According to many, I should have been dead in the water because I had no stud RB in the first or second round. But I ended up taking Spiller at pick 71 and Ridley at pick 98. So I took Brees and STILL ended up with 2 RB1s on my team and ended up 3rd in scoring drafting from the 14th hole.

cherry picking examples is furthering the discussion?

I ran the numbers with the actual best case scenario from the guy leading the charge of not drafting a QB early. In what you just quoted, that was my actual team. Cherry picking, too me, implies selected players out of the blue to further your cause. I didn't pick guys out of thin air . . . I actually DRAFTED the players I mentioned, you know, BEFORE the season . . . not a year later when people have been trying to come up with examples AFTER THE FACT.

 

[ghostguy123]

To further the discussion about LAST YEAR, In a 14 team league, I went Brees and Welker at the 14/15 turn. According to many, I should have been dead in the water because I had no stud RB in the first or second round. But I ended up taking Spiller at pick 71 and Ridley at pick 98. So I took Brees and STILL ended up with 2 RB1s on my team and ended up 3rd in scoring drafting from the 14th hole.

14 team league brees a nice pick at 14.

And like I said before, if you hit on your late picks you could have taken a kicker and a defense at 14/15 and still won your league.

 

[ghostguy123]

I could go with other combo's. Jamaal Charles, Richardson, Bush perhaps? There was a lot of value at RB in those rounds last year. This year is a different story. The RBs in rounds 3 on scare me, frankly.

Also, with your example of Rice and Romo, no one really advocated taking a QB over the top 3 backs going into last year. It's mainly a discussion revolving the mid-late first round.

I'm not talking about taking a QB early as a general practice. I just see last year as a large outlier. Taking a QB in round 1 was a simple product of wanting safe, studly numbers as opposed to risking taking a questionable running back.

I am talking about Rice in the later part of the 1st THIS year, along with a guy like Romo/Stafford/Ryan/RG3/Luck much later like 7th or 8th.

The intent of this thread was to argue about taking a QB early LAST year. I, and multiple people have repeatedly said that this year is a completely different story.

And I also said, last year or this year, I can provide more examples where a later 1st round RB was the better play than a later 1st round QB.

You're going to tell me that drafting one of McFadden, Mathews (before his injury he was round 1 ADP), CJ2K, or Demarco Murray were good picks instead of a stud QB like Rodgers, Brees, or Brady?

The only one I might give you is CJ2K but he had such a slow start that I'm really reluctant. The others were busts. Plain and simple.

Who won that league, and what was his first round pick?

 

[Anarchy99]

Who won that league, and what was his first round pick?

Here is the crux of the problem. Whoever won likely did so on the strength of drafting a good team from top to bottom . . . not just on a first round pick.

Like you said a couple posts ago, if you hit on everything, you could have taken Daffy Duck in the first round and still won. That exact scenario happened in 2011 for me in the FBG staff league, as I ended up with 4 of the Top 5 WRs and 4 Top 10 RBs. I churned through 8 QBs that year, as every single QB I ended up got hurt. It didn't matter in the weekly results, as I still crushed everyone.

So I agree with you in that you don't NEED to have an early round QB, but it certainly wouldn't hurt. In my situation, had I taken a Rodgers or a Brees, I would have won by 30-35 points a game instead of 25. All that tells me is that if you draft well at any position, your chances go up. A lot.

 

[butcher boy]

I could go with other combo's. Jamaal Charles, Richardson, Bush perhaps? There was a lot of value at RB in those rounds last year. This year is a different story. The RBs in rounds 3 on scare me, frankly.

Also, with your example of Rice and Romo, no one really advocated taking a QB over the top 3 backs going into last year. It's mainly a discussion revolving the mid-late first round.

I'm not talking about taking a QB early as a general practice. I just see last year as a large outlier. Taking a QB in round 1 was a simple product of wanting safe, studly numbers as opposed to risking taking a questionable running back.

I am talking about Rice in the later part of the 1st THIS year, along with a guy like Romo/Stafford/Ryan/RG3/Luck much later like 7th or 8th.

The intent of this thread was to argue about taking a QB early LAST year. I, and multiple people have repeatedly said that this year is a completely different story.

And I also said, last year or this year, I can provide more examples where a later 1st round RB was the better play than a later 1st round QB.

You're going to tell me that drafting one of McFadden, Mathews (before his injury he was round 1 ADP), CJ2K, or Demarco Murray were good picks instead of a stud QB like Rodgers, Brees, or Brady?

The only one I might give you is CJ2K but he had such a slow start that I'm really reluctant. The others were busts. Plain and simple.

Who won that league, and what was his first round pick?

I'm not talking about any specific league here, but in one league I played in I took Brees and won, and in another the guy who took Calvin won. Completely not the point though.

I'm still waiting for you to justify that taking McFadden, Mathews, Murray, or CJ2K in 2012 was a better pick than Rodgers, Brees or Brady. That's what this thread's been about the whole time.

 

[sporthenry]

Ok, so lets say you have the #8 pick in the draft. Using this year's ADP (which is an assumption that doesn't take into account things like uncertainty at RB last year), lets say you can either take RB8 or QB1. It seems some say they'll go RB and just take QB10. QB10's current ADP is 6th round. So we'll use a standard 6 player line up (1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1TE) without a flex to simplify things.

For the guys waiting on QB, I went RB first and QB last and did 8 variations of the picks in between. I used the ADP of the different positions so the 8th pick would also pick 17th. At 17, you could go WR4, RB 12, TE 1. I then used the average scoring over the last 4 years for the various picks. For the guys saying QB first, I went RB 2nd b/c many said they would do that and it helped keep the variations down.

The numbers show that QB first led to an average of 1117 while the RB first led to an average of 1095. A difference of 22 points over the course of a year. Not giant but in FF, a point a week is fairly significant. Additionally, 5 of the QB first guys outscored the top RB first.

If you ran the numbers for just last year, you'd get the opposite. VBD of QB1 vs QB10 was just 66 points as opposed to the 4 year average of 80. Additionally, the VBD between RB8 and RB27 (1st round vs 6th round) last year was 93 points. The 4 year average was 75 points difference.

And again, that doesn't really take into account the safety in drafting a QB. QB1 has a much better chance of finishing QB1 than RB8 has of finishing RB8.

 

[Anarchy99]

Ok, so lets say you have the #8 pick in the draft. Using this year's ADP (which is an assumption that doesn't take into account things like uncertainty at RB last year), lets say you can either take RB8 or QB1. It seems some say they'll go RB and just take QB10. QB10's current ADP is 6th round. So we'll use a standard 6 player line up (1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1TE) without a flex to simplify things.

For the guys waiting on QB, I went RB first and QB last and did 8 variations of the picks in between. I used the ADP of the different positions so the 8th pick would also pick 17th. At 17, you could go WR4, RB 12, TE 1. I then used the average scoring over the last 4 years for the various picks. For the guys saying QB first, I went RB 2nd b/c many said they would do that and it helped keep the variations down.

The numbers show that QB first led to an average of 1117 while the RB first led to an average of 1095. A difference of 22 points over the course of a year. Not giant but in FF, a point a week is fairly significant. Additionally, 5 of the QB first guys outscored the top RB first.

If you ran the numbers for just last year, you'd get the opposite. VBD of QB1 vs QB10 was just 66 points as opposed to the 4 year average of 80. Additionally, the VBD between RB8 and RB27 (1st round vs 6th round) last year was 93 points. The 4 year average was 75 points difference.

And again, that doesn't really take into account the safety in drafting a QB. QB1 has a much better chance of finishing QB1 than RB8 has of finishing RB8.

A lot will depend on the individual scoring systems. And I think you are not running the right numbers.

You are comparing the EXACT picks in both situations, but IMO you are not running the right numbers. You should be comparing the players that would be in the starting lineup. I would suggest that the difference is actually TEAM A's first two RB picks vs. TEAM B's first two RB picks and then adding in the difference in QB scoring. That is a different equation than just comparing the result with a 6th or 7th round RB.

 

[ghostguy123]

I'm not talking about any specific league here, but in one league I played in I took Brees and won, and in another the guy who took Calvin won. Completely not the point though.

I'm still waiting for you to justify that taking McFadden, Mathews, Murray, or CJ2K in 2012 was a better pick than Rodgers, Brees or Brady. That's what this thread's been about the whole time.

If you were unlucky enough to take one of them, you probably didnt do well. Unless of course you picked up Kapernick, Wilson on waivers or very late in the draft, and/or had RG3 from day one after taking him late, then you did just fine using them as a RB-2. Mathews and Murray both did "ok" when they played. CJ was a great #2 RB if indeed he was your #2 RB.

So for the few examples of the early RBs taken, there are also a few example of the late QBs taken that balances that out.

I am guessing the majority of people who took Rodgers and Brees in round 1 had a weakness somewhere due to taking that QB so high.

It balances out. I already DID use numbers by the way for whoever said I didnt. By all means go back and look.

The problem with many of you is this. If you disagree and think taking a QB in round 1 is the way to go, fine. If you think it was the best way to go last year, fine. I disagree, and I also disagree with taking a QB in round 1 this year............The PROBLEM is that some of us are saying things and many of your are completely taking it out of context or throwing up some ridiculous argument that isnt related to what we are talking about.

So one of you guys took Rodgers in round one, got AP round 3, Charles round 4, Spiller at pick 71 (which is just stupid, I never once saw him go that late), took Morris off Waivers, and won your league. So what? If I took a kicker in round 1, did all those same moves, and got wilson and Kepernick off waivers, does it make picking a kicker in round one the right move??? Of course not. You should seriously realize how stupid an argument sounds when you won your league picking the absolute best guy from each of the top 7 rounds that performed as a top 5 at his position, and then try to use that to say whoever you took in the 1st mattered.

Also, like 10 times now I will make a comment, or someone else will make a comment, related to a 12 team PPR league, and inevitably a couple of you will disagree while referencing point totals and outcomes form 14 or 16 team leagues and/or completely different scoring systems that dictate taking a QB early.

I can only say this so many times, but this is LEAGUE DEPENDENT!!!!!!!!!

SOme league it is good to take a QB with the #1 pick. Some it is bad to take a QB before the 4th round.

So in a 12 team PPR league where TEs get 1.5 PPR, and QBs get 4 points per TD pass with a lineup requirement of 2RB, 2WR, 1 TE, and 2 FLEX (FFPC), taking a QB was not the best move last year in round 1, and it isnt this year either.

If you disagree fine. If you disagree while talking about a different format............then god help you for not understanding what you are even arguing against.

 

[butcher boy]

IMO, these are the numbers that matter when looking at LAST year and asking in hindsight if taking a QB was a mistake.

Here are the RBs that were being selected in round 1 alongside their season ending rank.

Arian Foster - ADP 1.02, finished RB2

Ray Rice - ADP 1.02, finished RB6

LeSean McCoy - ADP 1.05, finished RB21

Darren McFadden - ADP 1.08, finished RB28

Chris Johnson, ADP 1.09, finished RB12

Matt Forte, ADP 1.10, finished RB13

DeMarco Murray, ADP 1.12, finished RB27

Since nobody was really advocating taking a QB over Arian Foster or Ray Rice, lets ignore them. Of the rest of the group, none of them broke the top 10, and 3 of the 5 were ranked lower than 20.

A lot of people saw this coming and wisely took the safe points of a stud QB instead of taking a chance on one of what would be a very weak year for first round RBs.

 

[butcher boy]

I'm not talking about any specific league here, but in one league I played in I took Brees and won, and in another the guy who took Calvin won. Completely not the point though.

I'm still waiting for you to justify that taking McFadden, Mathews, Murray, or CJ2K in 2012 was a better pick than Rodgers, Brees or Brady. That's what this thread's been about the whole time.

The problem with many of you is this. If you disagree and think taking a QB in round 1 is the way to go, fine. If you think it was the best way to go last year, fine. I disagree, and I also disagree with taking a QB in round 1 this year............The PROBLEM is that some of us are saying things and many of your are completely taking it out of context or throwing up some ridiculous argument that isnt related to what we are talking about.

No you don't disagree with me about this year. I and many others have said repeatedly that LAST YEAR it made sense to go QB early. This year, and I would imagine most years, however, that's not the case. I will not be going QB in round 1 or even 2 this year.

 

[sporthenry]

Ok, so lets say you have the #8 pick in the draft. Using this year's ADP (which is an assumption that doesn't take into account things like uncertainty at RB last year), lets say you can either take RB8 or QB1. It seems some say they'll go RB and just take QB10. QB10's current ADP is 6th round. So we'll use a standard 6 player line up (1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1TE) without a flex to simplify things.

For the guys waiting on QB, I went RB first and QB last and did 8 variations of the picks in between. I used the ADP of the different positions so the 8th pick would also pick 17th. At 17, you could go WR4, RB 12, TE 1. I then used the average scoring over the last 4 years for the various picks. For the guys saying QB first, I went RB 2nd b/c many said they would do that and it helped keep the variations down.

The numbers show that QB first led to an average of 1117 while the RB first led to an average of 1095. A difference of 22 points over the course of a year. Not giant but in FF, a point a week is fairly significant. Additionally, 5 of the QB first guys outscored the top RB first.

If you ran the numbers for just last year, you'd get the opposite. VBD of QB1 vs QB10 was just 66 points as opposed to the 4 year average of 80. Additionally, the VBD between RB8 and RB27 (1st round vs 6th round) last year was 93 points. The 4 year average was 75 points difference.

And again, that doesn't really take into account the safety in drafting a QB. QB1 has a much better chance of finishing QB1 than RB8 has of finishing RB8.

A lot will depend on the individual scoring systems. And I think you are not running the right numbers.

You are comparing the EXACT picks in both situations, but IMO you are not running the right numbers. You should be comparing the players that would be in the starting lineup. I would suggest that the difference is actually TEAM A's first two RB picks vs. TEAM B's first two RB picks and then adding in the difference in QB scoring. That is a different equation than just comparing the result with a 6th or 7th round RB.

Of course scoring matters. Can we just make that a subtitle of this thread. But there is a relatively standard scoring system that ESPN, Yahoo, and NFL use that I'm using.

I did compare the starting line ups. And what you are suggesting, comparing QB-RB-RB vs QB-RB-RB wouldn't be fair b/c if that is one guys 1st, 2nd and 3rd round picks while the other teams 1st, 2nd and 6th round pick, the one team doesn't get to take into account the value they received from the 3rd round pick on a WR/TE.

That is why I used the first 6 picks, and assumed that they filled out their starting line up and didn't take an extra RB while they still needed a WR/TE. The 4th paragraph was done differently just to show that last year was an abnormality (at least in the last 4 years) with QBs being closer and RBs being further apart than normal.

 

[Anarchy99]

Ok, so lets say you have the #8 pick in the draft. Using this year's ADP (which is an assumption that doesn't take into account things like uncertainty at RB last year), lets say you can either take RB8 or QB1. It seems some say they'll go RB and just take QB10. QB10's current ADP is 6th round. So we'll use a standard 6 player line up (1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1TE) without a flex to simplify things.

For the guys waiting on QB, I went RB first and QB last and did 8 variations of the picks in between. I used the ADP of the different positions so the 8th pick would also pick 17th. At 17, you could go WR4, RB 12, TE 1. I then used the average scoring over the last 4 years for the various picks. For the guys saying QB first, I went RB 2nd b/c many said they would do that and it helped keep the variations down.

The numbers show that QB first led to an average of 1117 while the RB first led to an average of 1095. A difference of 22 points over the course of a year. Not giant but in FF, a point a week is fairly significant. Additionally, 5 of the QB first guys outscored the top RB first.

If you ran the numbers for just last year, you'd get the opposite. VBD of QB1 vs QB10 was just 66 points as opposed to the 4 year average of 80. Additionally, the VBD between RB8 and RB27 (1st round vs 6th round) last year was 93 points. The 4 year average was 75 points difference.

And again, that doesn't really take into account the safety in drafting a QB. QB1 has a much better chance of finishing QB1 than RB8 has of finishing RB8.

A lot will depend on the individual scoring systems. And I think you are not running the right numbers.

You are comparing the EXACT picks in both situations, but IMO you are not running the right numbers. You should be comparing the players that would be in the starting lineup. I would suggest that the difference is actually TEAM A's first two RB picks vs. TEAM B's first two RB picks and then adding in the difference in QB scoring. That is a different equation than just comparing the result with a 6th or 7th round RB.

Of course scoring matters. Can we just make that a subtitle of this thread. But there is a relatively standard scoring system that ESPN, Yahoo, and NFL use that I'm using.

I did compare the starting line ups. And what you are suggesting, comparing QB-RB-RB vs QB-RB-RB wouldn't be fair b/c if that is one guys 1st, 2nd and 3rd round picks while the other teams 1st, 2nd and 6th round pick, the one team doesn't get to take into account the value they received from the 3rd round pick on a WR/TE.

That is why I used the first 6 picks, and assumed that they filled out their starting line up and didn't take an extra RB while they still needed a WR/TE. The 4th paragraph was done differently just to show that last year was an abnormality (at least in the last 4 years) with QBs being closer and RBs being further apart than normal.

Part of my peccadillo on this is that compared to what I consider standard scoring (1 pt = 20 passing yards, all TD = pts), the sites you listed devalue QBs and they don't score as much. I have been using the scoring system and totals that FBG uses in their year end rankings and VBD scores (which off the top of my head I can't define exactly what that is).

To continue beating a dead horse, this entire debate is scoring system and starting roster requirement dependent. when the scoring turns into 1 pt = 50 yards passing or TD = 4 pts for passing TD, EVERYTHING has to be reset and the analysis done over.

 

[Instinctive]

A couple points that are being glossed over here:

1. Rodgers isn't being drafted until the middle of the second. To draft him in the first would mean you're already reaching. I realize the title of the thread was "first round", but those are 2012 metrics.

2. Comparisons between Round 1/2 QB vs Round 7 QB points vs. Round 1/2 RB vs Round 7 RB points need to be probability adjusted. If you draft Rodgers or Brees, you have a very high chance of owning a top 3 QB. As others have cited, drafting an RB in the early second or even back half of the first is far from guaranteed top 10 performance. So not only are you drafting a huge point differential compared to the rest of the league, but you're doing so with very little risk that your advantage goes away.

THIS THREAD IS SUPPOSED TO BE ABOUT LAST YEAR.

I think that's the number one thing this "ghost guy" character is missing. But knowing the thread's purpose would clear this up quickly. We're evaluating in hindsight to see if the process that led to taking a QB was a good or bad one.

 

[Anarchy99]

I looked at one of my drafts from this year just to see who was getting drafted where (and for the record, scoring favors QBs):

Here were all the QBs taken before Round 11:

10 Brees

17 Rodgers

19 Peyton

23 Brady

29 Ryan

33 Stafford

45 Newton

72 Kaepernick

75 Wilson

77 Luck

79 RGIII

82 Romo

84 Eli

None of the drafters are green and all are savvy veterans. Clearly in this league ADP really didn't hold very much.

 

[Anarchy99]

A couple points that are being glossed over here:

1. Rodgers isn't being drafted until the middle of the second. To draft him in the first would mean you're already reaching. I realize the title of the thread was "first round", but those are 2012 metrics.

2. Comparisons between Round 1/2 QB vs Round 7 QB points vs. Round 1/2 RB vs Round 7 RB points need to be probability adjusted. If you draft Rodgers or Brees, you have a very high chance of owning a top 3 QB. As others have cited, drafting an RB in the early second or even back half of the first is far from guaranteed top 10 performance. So not only are you drafting a huge point differential compared to the rest of the league, but you're doing so with very little risk that your advantage goes away.

THIS THREAD IS SUPPOSED TO BE ABOUT LAST YEAR.

I think that's the number one thing this "ghost guy" character is missing. But knowing the thread's purpose would clear this up quickly. We're evaluating in hindsight to see if the process that led to taking a QB was a good or bad one.

True, but it was bumped with the framing of how to approach 2013.

Similar threads have come up every year for years, so bumping one from last year really doesn't change the debate or the parameters.

 

[Leonidas]

If I take a RB in round 1, and know that I will be taking a QB in like round 7, rounds 2-6 give me all kinds of options to take best value that falls.

I wont have to worry about taking a RB in round 3 when there is a major run on RBs, and have to pass on a great value pick at WR just to make sure I have a playable starting RB.

Speaking this season, taking a RB in round 1 and a QB later not only (to me obviously) will score more points than doing it the other way around...........getting that RB in round 1 will not force your hand to take any shaky RBs you dont like in rounds 2-6 while passing on WRs you like a lot just to fill out a starting lineup.

Once you go QB in round 1, you are looking for a RB every single pick from then on hoping some guys fall to you.

edit.........................league size an scoring system dependent

haha, that needs to be my sig "every post I make is is variable depending on league format and rules", lol. It's amazing how many people on here seem to assume that every post people make means they think that no matter what the league format is.

This is how I have started to think about it. Now, I always planned to take a RB in round 1, but every now and then I consider Calvin or a QB depending on particulars, but anyway...if you open the draft with a strong RB1 in round 1 that seems to leave you with the most flexibility and choice possible to draft the best value in all later rounds. It's okay to wait on RB2 when you have a stud RB1, if that's the way the board falls. But if you open with a non-RB, your hand is kinda forced

 

[FDC]

"True, but it was bumped with the framing of how to approach 2013."

No

My point back in December was that 2012 1st round qb selection was proven to be a mistake by predicting 2013 would not have any 1st round qbs. I was told that prediction was wrong. I bumped it because adp is fairly established now.

Typically adp just follows last years production/vbd

 

[ghostguy123]

A couple points that are being glossed over here:

1. Rodgers isn't being drafted until the middle of the second. To draft him in the first would mean you're already reaching. I realize the title of the thread was "first round", but those are 2012 metrics.

2. Comparisons between Round 1/2 QB vs Round 7 QB points vs. Round 1/2 RB vs Round 7 RB points need to be probability adjusted. If you draft Rodgers or Brees, you have a very high chance of owning a top 3 QB. As others have cited, drafting an RB in the early second or even back half of the first is far from guaranteed top 10 performance. So not only are you drafting a huge point differential compared to the rest of the league, but you're doing so with very little risk that your advantage goes away.

THIS THREAD IS SUPPOSED TO BE ABOUT LAST YEAR.

I think that's the number one thing this "ghost guy" character is missing. But knowing the thread's purpose would clear this up quickly. We're evaluating in hindsight to see if the process that led to taking a QB was a good or bad one.

I am well aware of what the thread is intended to be about. You are not aware that I am talking about both last year AND this year, referencing both. I don't feel it is too terribly wrong to do that, and neither do most others.

 

[Dez]

Watching a Pros vs Joes draft right now on air.

1st QB off the board Rodgers in the 4th round

Brees in the 5th round

 

[ghostguy123]

Watching a Pros vs Joes draft right now on air.

1st QB off the board Rodgers in the 4th round

Brees in the 5th round

What is the league setup? I forget.

 

[cobalt_27]

Watching a Pros vs Joes draft right now on air.

1st QB off the board Rodgers in the 4th round

Brees in the 5th round

Probably should have taken a kicker there. QBs are meaningless positions in these league setups.