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'Way Too Early' fantasy football sleepers & busts for 2015 (1 Viewer)

I've been reading these articles re: QBs, sleepers/bargains, and these are whom I've seen listed, with some other notes:

Tannehill - m

Carr - m (multiple)

Bridgewater - m

Bradford - m

Kaepernick - m

EManning - m

Stafford

Ryan

Palmer - m

Bortles - once - er, not buying it

Cutler - once - nope

- Bridgewater and more recently Bradford seem to get the most mentions for breakout.

- Kaep and Palmer seem to lead the bounce-back candidates.

- I'm always leery when experts pick a QB to emerge without pointing out who will or can be an elite receiver for them.

- QBs with great volume:

What does this mean for fantasy owners on a practical level? Especially if you decide to draft with the "Late Round QB" theory, your first goal should be to target quarterbacks who throw for high volume or are in high-volume offenses. More opportunity to be on the field simply means more production for you over the full course of a season. This is why players like Matthew Stafford -- despite ugly Total NEP marks the past few years -- are still very fantasy-relevant.

A few others to target who will be cheaper but have had good volume over the past few years: Tony Romo, Ryan Tannehill, Ben Roethlisberger, and Eli Manning.
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- I have no idea what this means, but it's interesting.

- Statistically Romo was the most consistent QB last year. I can't believe I just wrote that.

- I never saw him mentioned but I think Mariota at least belongs in consideration.

- Also, couple recs for Palmer:

QB conundrum. What widely drafted QB2 has the best shot to penetrate the QB1 ranks in 12-team leagues: Carson Palmer, Joe Flacco, Sam Bradford, Jay Cutler or Teddy Bridgewater.

Scott – PALMER, because he'll have to - the line and the backfield aren't set up to do much in the desert. But don't forget a sleeper not even mentioned in this question, Cincinnati's Andy Dalton. Everything fell wrong for him in 2014, and then the Bengals collapsed in the playoffs, their usual thing. It's gotten to the point that Dalton is so overrated, he's actually underrated again.

Andy – I'd love to say TEDDY, because I think he'll ultimately be recognized as the best from this group. But for a year, it's probably PALMER. The team context is too good, from coach to supporting cast.

Brad – PALMER. Bridgewater is a very close second, but I'm enamored with the Red Baron. He was a top-10 QB when on the field last year ('14 extrapolation over 16 games: 4,336 yards, 29 TDs). Most appetizing, Bruce Arians plans to install a no-huddle offense, a scheme that should maximize Palmer's workload. The personnel around him – Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown, Michael Floyd, Andre Ellington and David Johnson – are constructed for a prolific pass game. And the Cardinals' enhanced offensive line should provide better protection.
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Carson Palmer, Ari, QB
Current ADP: 130.2 (QB16)
ADP Change: +0.98 rounds
If not for a blown knee, Palmer would’ve been a borderline QB1 in 2014. Pre-injury, he averaged 21.3 fantasy points per game over six contests, a mark that placed him just behind Tom Brady for No. 15 among signal callers. Extrapolate his accomplishments over 16 games and he would’ve finished with 4,336 passing yards and 29 touchdowns. Not too shabby for a thirty-something QB who chilled on his couch for a large chunk of the 2011 season. Overall, the arrow is pointing north in the desert. The Cardinals offensive line, which brought in premier blocker Mike Iupati this offseason, is the best it’s been in years. Palmer’s 36.7 under-pressure percentage from last fall is sure to decrease. The passer’s stable of receivers – Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, John Brown and Andre Ellington – are also a plus. Equally promising, Bruce Arians wants to push pedal-to-metal, a hurry-up wrinkle that is sure to keep defenses vulnerable and winded. If you plan to implement a wait-on-a-QB strategy, Palmer needs to be your target. Roughly 4,300 yards with 30-35 TDs are within reach.
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QBs - avoid/busts:

Foles - 11

Brees - more than once, this won't be shocking but I ain't buyin' this for a second.

- I thought this bit interesting:

QBs (Games less than starter-average (QB1-QB12) 16.8 fantasy points): 1t) Matt Ryan (9, 56.3%), 1t) Ryan Tannehill (9, 56.3%), 3t) Ben Roethlisberger (8, 50.0%), 3t) Philip Rivers (8, 50.0%), 5t) Tom Brady (7, 43.8%), 5t) Eli Manning (7, 43.8%)

QB1s (Games with more than starter-average 16.8 fantasy points): 1) Andrew Luck (13, 81.3%), 2) Aaron Rodgers (12, 75.0%), 3) Tony Romo (11 (out of 15 gms), 73.3%), 4t) Peyton Manning (11, 68.7%), 4t) Drew Brees (11, 68.7%)

RB1s (Games less than starter-average (RB1-RB24) 12.2 fantasy points): 1t) LeSean McCoy (10, 62.5%), 1t) Jeremy Hill* (10, 62.5%), 3) Lamar Miller (9, 56.2%), 4) C.J. Anderson* (7, 50%), 5t) Le’Veon Bell (7, 43.2%), 5t) Justin Forsett (7, 43.2%)

***To be fair, Hill and Anderson didn’t start until midseason.

RB1s (Games with more than starter league-average 12.2 fantasy points): 1) DeMarco Murray (14, 87.5%), 2) Marshawn Lynch (11, 68.7%), 3t) Matt Forte (10, 62.5%), 3t) Eddie Lacy (10, 62.5%), 5) Arian Foster (8 (out of 13 gms) 61.5%)

WR1s (Games less than starter league-average (WR1-WR36) 10.3 fantasy points): 1) Calvin Johnson (7 (in 13 gms), 53.8%), 2) Jeremy Maclin (8, 50.0%), 3t) Mike Evans (7 (in 15 gms), 46.7%), 3t) Julio Jones (7 (in 15 gms), 46.7%), 3t) T.Y. Hilton (7 (in 15 gms), 46.7%)

WR1s (Games with more than starter league-average (WR1-WR36) 10.3 fantasy points):1) Demaryius Thomas (13, 81.2%), 2) Antonio Brown (12, 75.0%), 3) Odell Bekcham (9 (in 12 gms), 75.0%), 4) Randall Cobb (11, 68.7%), 5t) Dez Bryant (10, 62.5%), 5t) Jordy Nelson (10, 62.5%), 5t) Emmanuel Sanders (10, 62.5%), 5t) Alshon Jeffery (10, 62.5%)
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