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Week 1 Lines (1 Viewer)

JB Breakfast Club

JB Breakfast Club

Footballguy
I'm playing a LVH Super Contest look alike game this season (pick 6 against the spread each week). I'll open a discussion of each week's lines mid-week. Input appreciated...feel free to post your top 6 and track your results...

Lines from http://www.sportsbook.ag/livesports/football

Bal @ Den -7.5

NE -11 @ Buff

Ten @ Pitt -7

Atl @ NO -3

TB -4 @ NYJ

KC -4 @ Jacksonville

Cinci @ Chi -3

Mia @ Cle -1

Sea -4.5 @ Carolina

Minn @ Det -4

Oak @ Indy -10

Arz @ StL -4.5

GB @ SF -5

NYG @ Dal -3.5

Phi @ Wash -4.5

Hou -5 @ SD

Picks:

Buffalo +11: This line has been all over the place...opened at 6.5, moved to 11, and I expect it'll move down to single digits with Manuel starting. I like it if it stays 10 or more - double digit home dogs are 21-10 ATS over the past five years.

Jacksonville +4: Battle of new coaches. I expect Jacksonville to be under-valued early in the season.

Carolina +4.5: Continuing the home dog theme. Seattle goes cross country. I think Carolina keeps it within a FG.

San Diego +5: Houston is clearly more talented, but they didn't get a lot of practice time for Hopkins and Foster.

New York Jets + 4: Maybe I am playing the "home dog" card too hard...I just don't think Tampa Bay is good enough to give more than a FG to any team on the road.

Minnesota + 5.5: I will take the Vikings to stay within 4 points in any game that I think Peterson will run the ball 25 times.

 
I am playing 3 games and 3 games only

Cleveland -1

GB+5

and Det-4 (LOVE DET-4)

Sometimes don't play too much, just play the guarantees

 
Tenn +7- Pitt shouldn't be favored by a TD over much of anyone these days.

GB +5. Too many points. Playoff revenge.

Indy -10. Until they prove some sort of competence, I'm going against OAK every week.

 
Tampa - beating up on a team in disarray before the season even begins.

Miami - Cleveland needs more weapons than just Richardson. Losing Gordon hurts them a lot.

Houston - SD is banged up; Houston is deeper and with more balance.

KC - I like Andy Reid here opening more than anything.

Indianpolis - it's a lot of points but the Raiders are just that bad.

On the fence about Seattle.

 
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In order of confidence...

Indy - 10

St Louis - 4.5

Sea - 4.5

TB -4

Cinci + 3

severe drop of confidence at this point...

Minn + 4

 
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I like Miami this week. Under Philbin they don't really show much in the preseason. I think they're sneaky good. Cleveland looked flat out bad in their dress rehearsal game. Philbin took the pressure of Lamar Miller with all of the preseason time share talk. Gordon being out due to suspension limits Cleveland's big play ability. Cleveland home opener been a let down for the home team since the days of Charlie Frye. Miami wins by 7+.

 
JAMES! said:
I like Miami this week. Under Philbin they don't really show much in the preseason. I think they're sneaky good. Cleveland looked flat out bad in their dress rehearsal game. Philbin took the pressure of Lamar Miller with all of the preseason time share talk. Gordon being out due to suspension limits Cleveland's big play ability. Cleveland home opener been a let down for the home team since the days of Charlie Frye. Miami wins by 7+.
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i think the Miami defense is good enough to keep Cleveland under wraps, especially down a weapon like Gordon. the miami offense is just good enough here to eke out a win.

 
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saintfool said:
JAMES! said:
I like Miami this week. Under Philbin they don't really show much in the preseason. I think they're sneaky good. Cleveland looked flat out bad in their dress rehearsal game. Philbin took the pressure of Lamar Miller with all of the preseason time share talk. Gordon being out due to suspension limits Cleveland's big play ability. Cleveland home opener been a let down for the home team since the days of Charlie Frye. Miami wins by 7+.
Click to expand...
i think the Miami defense is good enough to keep Cleveland under wraps, especially down a weapon like Gordon. the miami offense is just good enough here to eke out a win.
Click to expand...
Don't underestimate Miami keeping their coaching staff completely intact from last season. Cleveland has a new OC and new DC.

 
JB Breakfast Club said:
I'm playing a LVH Super Contest look alike game this season (pick 6 against the spread each week). I'll open a discussion of each week's lines mid-week. Input appreciated...feel free to post your top 6 and track your results...

Lines from http://www.sportsbook.ag/livesports/football

Picks:

Buffalo +11: This line has been all over the place...opened at 6.5, moved to 11, and I expect it'll move down to single digits with Manuel starting. I like it if it stays 10 or more - double digit home dogs are 21-10 ATS over the past five years.

Jacksonville +4: Battle of new coaches. I expect Jacksonville to be under-valued early in the season.

Carolina +4.5: Continuing the home dog theme. Seattle goes cross country. I think Carolina keeps it within a FG.

San Diego +5: Houston is clearly more talented, but they didn't get a lot of practice time for Hopkins and Foster.

New York Jets + 4: Maybe I am playing the "home dog" card too hard...I just don't think Tampa Bay is good enough to give more than a FG to any team on the road.

Minnesota + 5.5: I will take the Vikings to stay within 4 points in any game that I think Peterson will run the ball 25 times.
Click to expand...
I am on the opposite side of all these.

I may be a homer, but how does a rookie QB start the first game of his career, and stay within 2 TD's of the Patriots?

 
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The key to nfl is to wait and place your bets in live betting.

Let the games come to you. Might miss a few but you'll get better lines more often than not.

 
Tinkering...I'm leaning towards this six pack (some half point lines moves too):

Buffalo +10.5

Jacksonville + 4.5

Carolina + 4.5

Minnesota +6

Cleveland -1

SD +5.5

4 home dogs, a playoff team with the MVP from last season getting 6 on the road, and a hunch on the Browns. Still considering the Colts -10 as well, but I worry about an Oakland back door cover with a garbage time TD.

 
JB Breakfast Club said:
Tinkering...I'm leaning towards this six pack (some half point lines moves too):

Buffalo +10.5

Jacksonville + 4.5

Carolina + 4.5

Minnesota +6

Cleveland -1

SD +5.5

4 home dogs, a playoff team with the MVP from last season getting 6 on the road, and a hunch on the Browns. Still considering the Colts -10 as well, but I worry about an Oakland back door cover with a garbage time TD.
Click to expand...
I would encourage you to take the ML if you insist on the Vikings. If they get ahead and stay ahead and the Lions are just as bad as last year, then fine. They might win. More likely though, you're at some point asking Christian Ponder against a GREAT pass rush to score you some points on the road to get within 6. I wouldn't bank on that. I think if Minny gets behind, this one could end very badly for them.

 
PatsFanCT said:
JB Breakfast Club said:
I'm playing a LVH Super Contest look alike game this season (pick 6 against the spread each week). I'll open a discussion of each week's lines mid-week. Input appreciated...feel free to post your top 6 and track your results...

Lines from http://www.sportsbook.ag/livesports/football

Picks:

Buffalo +11: This line has been all over the place...opened at 6.5, moved to 11, and I expect it'll move down to single digits with Manuel starting. I like it if it stays 10 or more - double digit home dogs are 21-10 ATS over the past five years.

Jacksonville +4: Battle of new coaches. I expect Jacksonville to be under-valued early in the season.

Carolina +4.5: Continuing the home dog theme. Seattle goes cross country. I think Carolina keeps it within a FG.

San Diego +5: Houston is clearly more talented, but they didn't get a lot of practice time for Hopkins and Foster.

New York Jets + 4: Maybe I am playing the "home dog" card too hard...I just don't think Tampa Bay is good enough to give more than a FG to any team on the road.

Minnesota + 5.5: I will take the Vikings to stay within 4 points in any game that I think Peterson will run the ball 25 times.
Click to expand...
I am on the opposite side of all these.

I may be a homer, but how does a rookie QB start the first game of his career, and stay within t TD's of the Patriots?
Click to expand...
CJ Spiller off tackle behind Glenn all day. Watch some of the left side runs from last year, the previous coach was a moron for not running that all day long. Manuel does not need to do much to keep it close.

Mix in good starting position due to a super returner. The ability to throw the ball more than ten yards also helps...which is new for the Bills. Lastly, thy now have a coach who is not afraid to kick a 50 yard FG (true story, happend multiple times last year)

And they were in position to beat the Pats last year before some of the idiocy above killed them.

Home team, season opener. I am staying away.

The other argument is that the bills go three and out twice and are down 14 six minutes into the game. This is also a strong possibility whichis why I will lay off.

 
I liked the Bills and the points a couple weeks ago. But now without Gilmore & Byrd I don't - they probably have the worst "back 7" in football without them. Seriously - their best defender with hands off the ground is probably Kiko Alonso now who has never played a down in the league. Not a single one of those 7 would start for the Pats (who are no great shakes in the secondary either). Seems like a horrific formula vs. Brady regardless of how banged up or inexperienced his WR's are.

Not sure how nobody includes this in their analysis of this game - it's always just "Lol rookie QB, Bills suck". I fear the squares may be right about the road favorite here for the wrong reasons. But 11 is just too much for me to lay on the road in the nfl, personally.

 
In order of confidence

Washington -3

Jacksonville +4

Denver -7.5

Carolina +3.5

San Diego +3.5

 
Bills_Fan11 said:
I liked the Bills and the points a couple weeks ago. But now without Gilmore & Byrd I don't - they probably have the worst "back 7" in football without them. Seriously - their best defender with hands off the ground is probably Kiko Alonso now who has never played a down in the league. Not a single one of those 7 would start for the Pats (who are no great shakes in the secondary either). Seems like a horrific formula vs. Brady regardless of how banged up or inexperienced his WR's are.

Not sure how nobody includes this in their analysis of this game - it's always just "Lol rookie QB, Bills suck". I fear the squares may be right about the road favorite here for the wrong reasons. But 11 is just too much for me to lay on the road in the nfl, personally.
Click to expand...
The Pats have an improved pass rush. They'll be on E.J. early and often. He's going to have to make some great passes under pressure. Not an easy task for your first NFL game. Spiller is Spiller, and he'll get his, but he can't go TD for TD alone with Brady and the rest of the Pats.

 
cheese said:
JB Breakfast Club said:
Tinkering...I'm leaning towards this six pack (some half point lines moves too):

Buffalo +10.5

Jacksonville + 4.5

Carolina + 4.5

Minnesota +6

Cleveland -1

SD +5.5

4 home dogs, a playoff team with the MVP from last season getting 6 on the road, and a hunch on the Browns. Still considering the Colts -10 as well, but I worry about an Oakland back door cover with a garbage time TD.
Click to expand...
I would encourage you to take the ML if you insist on the Vikings. If they get ahead and stay ahead and the Lions are just as bad as last year, then fine. They might win. More likely though, you're at some point asking Christian Ponder against a GREAT pass rush to score you some points on the road to get within 6. I wouldn't bank on that. I think if Minny gets behind, this one could end very badly for them.
Click to expand...
If I were in Vegas, that might be true, but I'm talking about a LVH super contest game, so it always includes the spreads. Also, I must pick six games each week - no less. I think the Vikings can slow this game down with a lot of Peterson and avoid falling behind by 14 points at any point in the game.

 
I think Week 1 NFL is one of the toughest cards in all of sports. Everyone is paying attention and Vegas has had all summer to fiddle with the lines. The lines are very sharp to say the least.

FWIW, The biggest public teams this week are TB, SEAT, Indy, KC and NE.

Good Luck JB

 
i feel like the Titans can cover +7.5 on the road. It seems like alot of points for PIT to cover with their RB/OL situation.

 
Angry Beavers said:
I think Week 1 NFL is one of the toughest cards in all of sports. Everyone is paying attention and Vegas has had all summer to fiddle with the lines. The lines are very sharp to say the least.

FWIW, The biggest public teams this week are TB, SEAT, Indy, KC and NE.

Good Luck JB
Click to expand...
I think the only game the regular bettors beat Vegas last year week 1 was NE@TEN.

There were several where Vegas made a killing:

Sea@AZ +1 (Sea was 4-0 in preseason with Wilson, AZ 1-4 looking bad)

Phi -9@Cle. Cle should have won. Phi preseason champs as always.

Buf@Jets-3. Jets scored 31 pts total in the preseason. Buf was supposed to dominate w Williams

Etc..

 
Here are last year's closing lines at Pinnacle and results for reference:

Dal@NYG-3.5 (Dal 24-17)

Ind@Chi-10 (Chi 41-21)

Phi@Cle+9 (Phi 17-16)

buf@NYJ -3 (NYJ 48-28)

Was@NO -9.5 (Was 40-32)

NE@Ten +4.5 (NE 34-13)

Jax@Min -3.5 (Min 26-23)

Mia@Hou-13 (Hou 30-10)

STL@Det-9 (Det 27-23)

Atl@KC+1 (Atl 40-24)

SF@GB-6 (SF 30-22)

Car@TB+3 (TB 16-10)

Sea@AZ+1 (AZ 20-16)

Pit@Den-2.5 (Den 31-19)

Cin@Bal-7 (Bal 44-13)

SD@Oak+1 (SD 22-14)

 
As far as the Pats beating up on rookie QBs, that used to be true but has been less true in recent years. Here's what I found in a hurried attempt at research (games vs. rookie starting QB in TB and BB era).

Lunk L 24-59

Tannehill L 16-23

Wilson W 24-23

McCoy W 34-14

Sanchez W 16-9

Edwards L 7-38

VYoung L 23-40

Roethlisberger W 24-20

LMcCown L 15-42

Leftwich L 13-27

Dorsey L 7-21

Harrington L 12-20

Vick L 10-24

Weinke L 6-38

 
Anarchy99 said:
As far as the Pats beating up on rookie QBs, that used to be true but has been less true in recent years. Here's what I found in a hurried attempt at research (games vs. rookie starting QB in TB and BB era).

Lunk L 24-59

Tannehill L 16-23

Wilson W 24-23

McCoy W 34-14

Sanchez W 16-9

Edwards L 7-38

VYoung L 23-40

Roethlisberger W 24-20

LMcCown L 15-42

Leftwich L 13-27

Dorsey L 7-21

Harrington L 12-20

Vick L 10-24

Weinke L 6-38
Click to expand...
All playing their first NFL game of their career?

 
Just how unprepared do you think college QBs are these days? Interesting recotd against the rookies. Less film to study works against NEs strength to put together a great game plan?

 
PatsFanCT said:
Anarchy99 said:
As far as the Pats beating up on rookie QBs, that used to be true but has been less true in recent years. Here's what I found in a hurried attempt at research (games vs. rookie starting QB in TB and BB era).

Lunk L 24-59

Tannehill L 16-23

Wilson W 24-23

McCoy W 34-14

Sanchez W 16-9

Edwards L 7-38

VYoung L 23-40

Roethlisberger W 24-20

LMcCown L 15-42

Leftwich L 13-27

Dorsey L 7-21

Harrington L 12-20

Vick L 10-24

Weinke L 6-38
Click to expand...
All playing their first NFL game of their career?
Click to expand...
Of course not. I've already heard around here that rookies pretty much at any point could not possibly be fully aware at what hoodie will throw at them and that for the most part any team starting a rookie is asking to lose. Clearly that has not been the case. Rookies in their first game against NE that I listed went 4-10 over the years. That's a .714 winning percentage for the Pats, which is actually slightly worse than their overall regular season winning percentage in games against non-rookie QBs in their first game against the Pats (.764).

 
JB Breakfast Club said:
cheese said:
JB Breakfast Club said:
Tinkering...I'm leaning towards this six pack (some half point lines moves too):

Buffalo +10.5

Jacksonville + 4.5

Carolina + 4.5

Minnesota +6

Cleveland -1

SD +5.5

4 home dogs, a playoff team with the MVP from last season getting 6 on the road, and a hunch on the Browns. Still considering the Colts -10 as well, but I worry about an Oakland back door cover with a garbage time TD.
Click to expand...
I would encourage you to take the ML if you insist on the Vikings. If they get ahead and stay ahead and the Lions are just as bad as last year, then fine. They might win. More likely though, you're at some point asking Christian Ponder against a GREAT pass rush to score you some points on the road to get within 6. I wouldn't bank on that. I think if Minny gets behind, this one could end very badly for them.
Click to expand...
If I were in Vegas, that might be true, but I'm talking about a LVH super contest game, so it always includes the spreads. Also, I must pick six games each week - no less. I think the Vikings can slow this game down with a lot of Peterson and avoid falling behind by 14 points at any point in the game.
Click to expand...
Fair enough, the format makes sense. Looks like we will be on opposite sides. GL

 
tjnc09 said:
Angry Beavers said:
I think Week 1 NFL is one of the toughest cards in all of sports. Everyone is paying attention and Vegas has had all summer to fiddle with the lines. The lines are very sharp to say the least.

FWIW, The biggest public teams this week are TB, SEAT, Indy, KC and NE.

Good Luck JB
Click to expand...
I think the only game the regular bettors beat Vegas last year week 1 was NE@TEN.

There were several where Vegas made a killing:

Sea@AZ +1 (Sea was 4-0 in preseason with Wilson, AZ 1-4 looking bad)

Phi -9@Cle. Cle should have won. Phi preseason champs as always.

Buf@Jets-3. Jets scored 31 pts total in the preseason. Buf was supposed to dominate w Williams

Etc..
Click to expand...
I think the public crushed on the Texans last year wk1, no? I seem to remember everyone in the whole world wanted Houston wk1 for survivor last year.

 
Picking all dogs will mostly result in 50%...

Cute to pick home dogs but all those have moved across key numbers. Scary.

I'll be rooting for the Jets and Jags but not sure If I can put my money on them at this point.

Like Eagles +4.5 or +3.5, whatever it is now.

 
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