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Week 1 - What did you see that you think was an outlier? What did you see that you think was for real? (1 Viewer)

Joe Bryant

Joe Bryant

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Week 1 is always prone to overreactions. I don't think Joe Burrow forgot how to play QB for instance.

But sometimes we do see surprising things in Week 1 that actually do continue to be true.

What are players / situations there like this for you?
 
Herbert is going to be stuck in a committee and the eye test suggests his share will shrink going forward. Wish I didn't draft him.

D. Swift won't be a useful fantasy football asset. Philly doesn't throw to running backs often and that is the only place he could potentially have value. I'm cutting bait now.
 
i am glad i am not the guy paying geno smith 3/105. maybe i have jet bias, but man…..he has a career season right before UFA at age 31/32 and is being counted on to be the man. this still reminds me of the ryan fitzpatrick season for the jets and then he became ryan fitzpatrick again.

also, SF seems dangerous. mccafrey might be helfy again, kittle is a top TE and aiyuk is gonna catch 100 balls. purdy seems legit.
 
Drunken Cowboy said:
titusbramble said:
Puca Nacua may not get 15 targets every week but will become an every week flex or better even when Kupp is back, as that team is bad and will need to pass and every WR outside of Kupp sucks
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I don't think the Rams are bad. They look like a playoff team to me
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Not sure if I'd go that far, but I don't necessarily buy the notion that Puca can't be good once Kupp comes back. If Stafford plays as well as he did yesterday, no reason he can't support two fantasy-viable WRs
 
Zay Flowers is already here. He was going in a similar range as Bateman and OBJ most of the summer. He might be a 1st rounder next year. Andrews was out, but this guy was plan A,B, and C and he showed why. 50% market share. Electric after the catch

Agree about the Rams WR talk. McVay knows what he's doing and Stafford is healthy. They're going to throw and someone is going to be an absolute steal while Kupp is out.

Brock Purdy is healthy and really good. TBD what that means for fantasy

Stuff that I think will fade fast- Bears defense will be fine. Weird game, in-game injuries, rivalry, just got away from them. I don't think that will be a thing.
Tannehill.... Plenty of qbs struggle @NO. Not that worried.
Like everyone else says... Burrow
 
cheese said:
Zay Flowers is already here. He was going in a similar range as Bateman and OBJ most of the summer. He might be a 1st rounder next year. Andrews was out, but this guy was plan A,B, and C and he showed why. 50% market share. Electric after the catch

Agree about the Rams WR talk. McVay knows what he's doing and Stafford is healthy. They're going to throw and someone is going to be an absolute steal while Kupp is out.

Brock Purdy is healthy and really good. TBD what that means for fantasy

Stuff that I think will fade fast- Bears defense will be fine. Weird game, in-game injuries, rivalry, just got away from them. I don't think that will be a thing.
Tannehill.... Plenty of qbs struggle @NO. Not that worried.
Like everyone else says... Burrow
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watched gb v chi….with fields i get the feeling that chicago can never trail or they’ll have a hard time with him trying to come back.
 
Outlier is a healthy Higgins getting zero points in a miserable weather day after a preseason they didn't really have. Andrei Iosivas was running all their routes. I'm not a Higgins stan at all, but that would seem to be an outlying game.

As for real, Rashid Shaheed is for real, but can Carr support both he and Olave? I'm willing to bet that he can, at least until they get Kamara back.
 
It seems more teams had a rough go in week 1 than past years. So I expect several teams to look completely different in week 2 and share these observations with a grain of salt that are mostly focused on players I had targeted or avoided for my drafts.

Zay Flowers looks legit, his routes are crisp and he got open effortlessly. Lamar's passing accuracy looked okay, but first game and all, this looks like a promising duo for the year.

Saints passing attack can be potent, if Carr can limit his brain farts then he can easily get to QB1 status again. It's a big if. Michael Thomas looks slow, but he still has good hands and good size to be the possession guy with Olave & Shaheed stretching the field. Olave looked every bit as good as any other receiver in the league.

Josh Reynolds is the guy (after ARSB) until Jamo comes back. Even then, I think Reynolds has a safe floor this season. Was waivering on him before the fantasy drafts, but now I regret not taking him everywhere. Goff looked for him often.

Tennessee receivers are not gonna be very consistent, Tannehill just isn't equipped to pass effectively. Tyjae Spears looked great with the touches he had, I don't think the Titans will miss a beat if Henry were to miss any time.

I dunno if Purdy is elite material, but Purdy to Aiyuk looks legit. The hype was real on both of these two through week one.

I don't think Howell will be the starting QB for Washington for the whole season. I didn't watch this game close enough to see what the issue was, but he looked only effective when running. The entire team (and coaching) may just be bad.

Fields is probably good enough to win a few games, but it doesn't look like he's ready to take the leap yet into fantasy QB1-land. I dunno, I just don't see it.

Russell Wilson didn't look as bad as I expected. Give him some time and he could be a good filler with enough QB1 upside as a backup in start 1 leagues. At worst a streamer candidate in standard non-superflex leagues.

Eagles defense is not great, especially the secondary. The Offense is going to have to score a lot. That backfield is still a ??? and no way Gainwell gets that kind of touches in a close game imo. So Hurts, AJ, Smith, Goedert are surefire top fantasy elites this season. Could be a good team to target any streaming QB's also believe it or not. If nothing else most teams will need to pass a lot to keep up.

Cowboys defense... I know it's one week, in the rain, and things got out of hand for NY early. But the speed of that defense was evident from the start. They are clearly the best ballhawking defense right now, Buffalo with Von Miller may still not be close.
 
ignatiusjreilly said:
Drunken Cowboy said:
titusbramble said:
Puca Nacua may not get 15 targets every week but will become an every week flex or better even when Kupp is back, as that team is bad and will need to pass and every WR outside of Kupp sucks
Click to expand...
I don't think the Rams are bad. They look like a playoff team to me
Click to expand...
Not sure if I'd go that far, but I don't necessarily buy the notion that Puca can't be good once Kupp comes back. If Stafford plays as well as he did yesterday, no reason he can't support two fantasy-viable WRs
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He would certainly lose target share
 
SayWhat? said:
Chase Claypool is for real. I think that’s what he’ll produce just about every week.
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Good thing they gave up pick 2.1 while Jax spent a 6th rounder on Ridley. I thought it was a good trade for Chicago, but there has to be serious buyer remorse.
 
ignatiusjreilly said:
Not sure if I'd go that far, but I don't necessarily buy the notion that Puca can't be good once Kupp comes back. If Stafford plays as well as he did yesterday, no reason he can't support two fantasy-viable WRs
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What if the reason is that Stafford force feeds his #1?
 
Deshaun Watson was missing open targets all day. He did enough for the win thanks to the Browns defense and fantasy-wise was fine with the help of a rushing TD, but Watson looked like he did towards the end of last season when everyone blamed "rust". I fear this is the new norm. Not good for him or Cooper, IMO.
 
Interested to see how the Ravens passing game plays out also. Surely didn’t get much out of Lively, the WRs got it all.
 
Galileo said:
Deshaun Watson was missing open targets all day. He did enough for the win thanks to the Browns defense and fantasy-wise was fine with the help of a rushing TD, but Watson looked like he did towards the end of last season when everyone blamed "rust". I fear this is the new norm. Not good for him or Cooper, IMO.
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You’re probably right but can’t really tell anything from that game imo.
 
I don't know if anybody was counting on Desmond Ridder developing with all his options at the skill positions, but I didn't see it yesterday. Appeared to not be able to read the field, was slow getting the ball out.

Atlanta will be looking for an answer at QB after this season, because I don't think that Ridder is it. Ridder would be a stellar backup QB for a contending team (he won't lose you games), but I don't think he can win them.
 
Here are a few of mine:

  • Ayiuk is just getting started. He will be top 10
  • Shaheed is going to be an every week start WR2 season going to happen
  • K Herbert - I am not giving up yet. It was a weird game but I think he will still finish as an RB2
  • Puka is for real. He will be the guy until/if Kupp comes back
  • Goedert is an aberration. He will be fine
  • Penny - I think he will get a shot. The Eagles need a runner like him but the risk is they won't give him a shot.
  • Geno - I think he falls back to earth and this week will happen more often than not this year.
 
massraider said:
ignatiusjreilly said:
Not sure if I'd go that far, but I don't necessarily buy the notion that Puca can't be good once Kupp comes back. If Stafford plays as well as he did yesterday, no reason he can't support two fantasy-viable WRs
Click to expand...
What if the reason is that Stafford force feeds his #1?
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Sure, that's possible. But it's an odd conclusion after a game in which he had two 100-yd WRs
 
Speed and burst wise Bijan looked liked Bo Jackson in Tecmo Bowl yesterday. He's gonna have a monster year, even splitting carries occasionally.
 
Gally said:
Here are a few of mine:

  • Ayiuk is just getting started. He will be top 10
  • Shaheed is going to be an every week start WR2 season going to happen
  • K Herbert - I am not giving up yet. It was a weird game but I think he will still finish as an RB2
  • Puka is for real. He will be the guy until/if Kupp comes back
  • Goedert is an aberration. He will be fine
  • Penny - I think he will get a shot. The Eagles need a runner like him but the risk is they won't give him a shot.
  • Geno - I think he falls back to earth and this week will happen more often than not this year.
Click to expand...
Hope you're right about Aiyuk, but I'm not totally sure. There will be Deebo weeks and Kittle weeks and probably not any weeks where all four of them produce. Which isn't to say the ratio couldn't shift more to Aiyuk compared to previous years
 
Russell Wilson showing that 2022's QBR of 84.4 was an anomaly...and that 2023 will be much closer to his career average of 100.2...is real.

Geno Smith showing that 2022's QBR of 100.9 was an anomaly...and that 2023 will be much closer to his career average of 84.8...is real.
 
Stoneworker said:
Russell Wilson showing that 2022's QBR of 84.4 was an anomaly...and that 2023 will be much closer to his career average of 100.2...is real.

Geno Smith showing that 2022's QBR of 100.9 was an anomaly...and that 2023 will be much closer to his career average of 84.8...is real.
Click to expand...

Then you will love this thread

We're Too Down On Russell Wilson and Too High On Geno Smith

This is really self-explanatory. I can't understand how Russ's career is now effectively over and that he stinks (and that it's been proven that he does) whereas Geno is heir apparent to a great system and just needed eight-ten years to come around. Oh yeah, and that Pete Carroll is a savant who...
forums.footballguys.com forums.footballguys.com
 
rockaction said:
Stoneworker said:
Russell Wilson showing that 2022's QBR of 84.4 was an anomaly...and that 2023 will be much closer to his career average of 100.2...is real.

Geno Smith showing that 2022's QBR of 100.9 was an anomaly...and that 2023 will be much closer to his career average of 84.8...is real.
Click to expand...

Then you will love this thread

We're Too Down On Russell Wilson and Too High On Geno Smith

This is really self-explanatory. I can't understand how Russ's career is now effectively over and that he stinks (and that it's been proven that he does) whereas Geno is heir apparent to a great system and just needed eight-ten years to come around. Oh yeah, and that Pete Carroll is a savant who...
forums.footballguys.com forums.footballguys.com
Click to expand...
rockaction said:
This whole thread didn't age well, really. Geno has been pretty darn good and Russell hasn't found it yet. Mea culpa.
Click to expand...

rockaction said:

I also think Geno might turn back into a pumpkin next year, but he deserves his due for this one so far.
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And what is your current opinion? It seemed to vacillate throughout the thread although your last post could prove prescient.
 
My opinion is that Geno had a career year last year, deserved his due, and probably won't duplicate it. That said, his high-level, high-difficulty throw percentage into crazy windows give me pause about declaring him dead after one poor game.

I honestly don't know, and if I did, I'd be getting paid oodles of dollars in the NFL for scouting.

In the end, I've got cognitive bias going on because of prior declarations, so take this for what it's worth. I think I'm sticking with the original premise, which is that Geno isn't as bad as his history but is not as good as last year.

Same with Russ.
 
Chemical X said:
i am glad i am not the guy paying geno smith 3/105. maybe i have jet bias, but man…..he has a career season right before UFA at age 31/32 and is being counted on to be the man. this still reminds me of the ryan fitzpatrick season for the jets and then he became ryan fitzpatrick again.
Click to expand...
Seattle lost both starting offensive tackles yesterday. Lockett was off the field for a good bit of the game being evaluated for a concussion. I'm not saying Smith will duplicate last year. I'm saying losses like that during a game tend to produce bad QB results.
 
Niners are for real. Purdy is not just a flash in the pan. Pickett looked terrible but is going to be fine. He’s going to be a good NFL quarterback but probably not one you want to have starting on your fantasy roster.
 
Galileo said:
Deshaun Watson was missing open targets all day. He did enough for the win thanks to the Browns defense and fantasy-wise was fine with the help of a rushing TD, but Watson looked like he did towards the end of last season when everyone blamed "rust". I fear this is the new norm. Not good for him or Cooper, IMO.
Click to expand...
Good for my DTR grab and stash though.
 
skol asylum said:
Galileo said:
Deshaun Watson was missing open targets all day. He did enough for the win thanks to the Browns defense and fantasy-wise was fine with the help of a rushing TD, but Watson looked like he did towards the end of last season when everyone blamed "rust". I fear this is the new norm. Not good for him or Cooper, IMO.
Click to expand...
Good for my DTR grab and stash though.
Click to expand...
I don't see it ever reaching that point barring injury. They are all in on Watson. They will not pull the plug on him.
 
We can draw conclusions about Watson in that weather, but not Burrow.

Got it.

And I don't disagree about missing targets Sunday. He did. They BOTH did. But ask a guy like Aikman about throwing in the rain. Some can, some it destroys.
 
We have not seen how exactly Jahmyr Gibbs will be utilized. IMO he'll be lining up in the slot and outside far more than we saw week one. Dude is still a great runner but they need his speed with the WR group until they get to Baltimore Week 7.

David Montgomery role will be the primary power back, but I think he'll also have some passing work in the screen game against certain style defenses.

But the Chiefs being without Chris Jones dictated a particular game plan that is atypical of Ben Johnson. They're usually more creative, but given the starters had zero preseason snaps, I think they knew the timing was not going to be there. That was a well below average performance from the offense but give KC credit, Spags called a great game.
 
InDitkaWeTrust said:
Neil Beaufort Zod said:
Outlier: The Cowboys. They're not that good.

For real: The Giants. They're probably that bad.
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LOL. Just came to post this:

Outlier: The Giants. They're not that bad.
For real: The Cowboys. Their DEF is that good.
Click to expand...

LOL. That's what makes this fun. I can see both sides of that. I tend to lean more toward Cowboys are really good though and not as worried about the Giants. The weather plus that game just go away from them right off the bat.
 
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