Thanks! Not superflex so said thanks but bye to Garoppolo.
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Week 11 2022 who should I start thread **OFFICIALLY UNOFFICIAL** (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Chaka
- Start date
I think you gotta roll KMET
C. Watson or G. Davis?
You'd think I would have learned my lesson benching Davis last week but here we are chasing points with Watson and worried about weather and game flow in Buffalo Sunday. I could see Chubb getting 30 carries and the Browns dominating time of possession.
You'd think I would have learned my lesson benching Davis last week but here we are chasing points with Watson and worried about weather and game flow in Buffalo Sunday. I could see Chubb getting 30 carries and the Browns dominating time of possession.
sho nuff
Footballguy
My merry go round of WRs again this week. Standard Scoring
Gabe Davis vs Cleveland
Tyler Boyd @ Pitt
Garrett Wilson @ NE
Rondale Moore vs SF
DJ Moore @ Balt
Weather has me a bit scared of Gabe...but otherwise I like the matchups of he and Boyd. While I like DJ Moore's matchup, just hard to trust that QB situation. Wilson has a bit of a tough matchup with NE...same for Rondale who gets a ton of targets. Id probably put Rondale right behind Gabe Davis as my choice if I decide against the snow game.
Flex
David Montgomery @ ATL
Gus Edwards vs Carolina
or one of the WRs no picked above.
Hate trusting Monty much more than I already have...disappoints every time in my lineup. But now with Herbert out, may get a little more work and has a sweet matchup. Gus would be a no-brainer if he was not coming off of injury and a bye week. Uncertain on how much they will go to him. Feels TD reliant.
Gabe Davis vs Cleveland
Tyler Boyd @ Pitt
Garrett Wilson @ NE
Rondale Moore vs SF
DJ Moore @ Balt
Weather has me a bit scared of Gabe...but otherwise I like the matchups of he and Boyd. While I like DJ Moore's matchup, just hard to trust that QB situation. Wilson has a bit of a tough matchup with NE...same for Rondale who gets a ton of targets. Id probably put Rondale right behind Gabe Davis as my choice if I decide against the snow game.
Flex
David Montgomery @ ATL
Gus Edwards vs Carolina
or one of the WRs no picked above.
Hate trusting Monty much more than I already have...disappoints every time in my lineup. But now with Herbert out, may get a little more work and has a sweet matchup. Gus would be a no-brainer if he was not coming off of injury and a bye week. Uncertain on how much they will go to him. Feels TD reliant.
sho nuff
Footballguy
Tough having to decide that tonight. As Id still lean Davis til we see a bit more from GB and Watson. We have seen the Doubs supposed breakout game, only for nothing to happen after. yes, IMO, Watson is more talented than Doubs and they seem to have had a plan to get Watson the ball...Id say a coin flip. If it were not for the possible weather, I would go Davis easy. Im hoping to in my league...do you have any other choices?
Chaka
Footballguy
I understand the logic here. Over his last four games Pitts is finally getting consistent volume (5, 9, 7 & 8) but he only has 12 catches on those 29 targets (41.4%). I know Pitts is supposed to be an otherworldly athlete but does that matter if your QB can't get you the ball? And it isn't like Cole is some slouch, he's a 23 years old, 2nd round pick in his third NFL season. With a little more than a full season of games with Fields as a starter he has a 66% catch rate.
Chicago has a low volume offense (21 att/game) and Fields spreads it around more than Mariota, but Atlanta also has a low volume passing offense (23 att/game) so I think the likelihood of either Pitts or Kmet disappearing for a week is fairly equal and, at least this season Kmet seems to have the much higher ceiling. And he's also on a tear, which must end at some point but you'll feel much worse if he continues to blow up on your bench than if Pitts does (because Pitts hasn't blown up all season).
Kmet>Pitts
Chaka
Footballguy
oooooooooooffff...Are those really the best options available in your league?
Total dart throw.
Okay I'm looking at how many sacks plus turnovers each team has collected and how many sacks plus turnovers each opponent has yielded. Because I have no other way of distinguishing between them. They are very close in rankings for total yardage and points.
TEN + GB: 29 + 13 + 20 + 15 = 77
NYG + NE: 26 + 14 + 22 + 17 = 79
So...:
NYJ>TEN
...I guess maybe, kinda sorta?
ETA @xenon : I just looked at a couple more metrics. Defensive rankings in yards & points for TEN & NYJ and offensive rankings for yards & points for GB & NE
GB O: 13 + 25 = 38
NE O: 26 + 14 = 40
Lower is better in this case so slight edge to TEN
TEN D: 23 + 8 = 31
NYJ D: 7 + 10 = 17
Again lower is better (IMHO as I'm just making this #### up) so big edge to NYJ
I stand by my original call and it's still a total guess.
NYJ>TEN
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I could throw Pickens or Palmer in the mix but I see them both as lesser options but could play them if Buffalo weather is a disaster. Saw a report today that the game could be cancelled. WTF...
LionOfGosforth
Footballguy
Quick one this week, trying to figure out if I can squeeze C.Watson into my lineup but it would have to be at the expense of one of:
G.Edwards/K.Drake vs Panthers - plenty of meat on the bone for either on this week you'd think
D.Foreman @ Ravens - been too solid but this is a tough matchup, might be the only one i'd consider benching
A.Brown vs Colts - obviously only if it's known he might not play but impossible to determine that one in time I guess
Also your favorite TE question
G.Dulcich vs Raiders - after last week's useless output, only a consideration due to soft matchup
D.Schultz @ Vikes - lean this guy's way
G.Edwards/K.Drake vs Panthers - plenty of meat on the bone for either on this week you'd think
D.Foreman @ Ravens - been too solid but this is a tough matchup, might be the only one i'd consider benching
A.Brown vs Colts - obviously only if it's known he might not play but impossible to determine that one in time I guess
Also your favorite TE question
G.Dulcich vs Raiders - after last week's useless output, only a consideration due to soft matchup
D.Schultz @ Vikes - lean this guy's way
Chaka
Footballguy
PPR? Doesn't really matter because these two are all about the TDs.
Bummer about having to make this decision today.
Snow or rain doesn't concern me nearly as much as wind, and it would have to be a lot of wind to impact Josh Allen's arm.
Both Watson & Davis are chasing points IMO. When Davis doesn't score a TD (4 of 8 games) his best output on the season is 3-37-0. That means he has three games even worse than that. He is the poster child for boom/bust.
ATM I see the forecast calling for 18 mph winds from kickoff throughout. It's difficult to take that as a gospel truth on Thursday morning.
As far as potential game script, I don't do that. I could see a lot of different things happen. I could have seen 30+ rush attempts last week in Miami in an attempt to control the clock and keep the Dolphin offense off the field. Instead they went play-action from the first snap and ended up getting burned because they simply aren't built keep up that pace for four quarters. Maybe the try to do that this week instead, maybe not. I have no earthly idea.
As far as who to play this week the way I see it is even with Cobb returning, Watson earned another game to continue his audition for the #1 WR role in GB. Tennessee gives up 60 more pass yards per game and 0.78 more receiving TDs per game than Cleveland. If you're rolling the dice on the boom-bust player this week I kinda lean towards the rookie.
But, really this is as much of a gut call as you can possibly have so go with yours, not mine.
ETA: @C-Bound The Cleveland @ Buffalo game was just moved to Detroit. If weather was the only issue holding you back, it's not a factor anymore.
ETA 2.0: @C-Bound
Think I'm flip-flopping with the venue change. But it's still a coin toss on two boom/bust guys (IMO):
Gabe>Watson
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Chaka
Footballguy
It's very tough to handicap this because so much depends on health of each player and the players around them.
Lazard is healthy right now and Williams is not (but practiced on a limited basis yesterday).
Watson is healthy but Cobb is limited and Doubs is still out.
Keenan Allen also practiced on a limited basis yesterday.
So, not much really to go on there.
I want to say Mike Williams as I think he is more talented (IMO) but I don't really have much faith in his ability to stay healthy.
I think Lazard is a more consistent option inside the red zone for Green Bay and the only guy who is a concern (IMO), Watson has had trouble staying on the field too.
But really this is just a W.A.G.
Lazard>Mike Williams
Chaka
Footballguy
I probably sit Jamaal here. He has the most potential competition, it's tough to discount the Giants ability to keep opponents in check on the scoreboard and the Detroit offense always has the risk of disappearing for long stretches.
My other option is Conner because the Niner matchup truly is the suck. These are my thoughts on Conner from earlier in the thread:
The reason I favor Conner by a small margin here is he doesn't have a D'Andre Swift looming over his shoulder. It seems pretty clear, to me, that the Lions have committed to Jamaal as the lead back but I don't think they will hesitate to feed Swift if he opens early with strong running (in the gaps he's supposed to hit, which has been a big issue for RB coach Duce Staley). But it really is very close between these two IMO.
Rhamondre>Jacobs>Conner>Williams
Chaka
Footballguy
I don't bench either Foreman or Brown for Watson.
If Gus is out (he was limited yesterday) I definitely go with Drake. But Gus and Drake are nearly in a full timeshare if both are on the field. And I don't think it is a guarantee that Gus gets all the short yardage opportunities. There has been zero continuity in the Ravens backfield so, how could you possibly know who is going to get what. Best guess is if both are healthy I take the risk with Gus>Drake because I think that's what the Ravens want to see happen regardless of who is playing better.
So, this comes down to timeshare Gus v Watson. And they are both highly speculative at this point. Watson has a high ceiling but it's tough to bank on that, and Gus has plenty of TD upside himself but may only get 12 touches with likely no usage in the passing game.
Watson & Gus are both flex options for me this week (currently have Courtland Sutton in) but I am pretty sure if Sutton were not available I would go:
Watson>Gus
Thank You!oooooooooooffff...Are those really the best options available in your league?
Total dart throw.
Okay I'm looking at how many sacks plus turnovers each team has collected and how many sacks plus turnovers each opponent has yielded. Because I have no other way of distinguishing between them. They are very close in rankings for total yardage and points.
TEN + GB: 29 + 13 + 20 + 15 = 77
NYG + NE: 26 + 14 + 22 + 17 = 79
So...:
NYJ>TEN
...I guess maybe, kinda sorta?
ETA @xenon : I just looked at a couple more metrics. Defensive rankings in yards & points for TEN & NYJ and offensive rankings for yards & points for GB & NE
GB O: 13 + 25 = 38
NE O: 26 + 14 = 40
Lower is better in this case so slight edge to TEN
TEN D: 23 + 8 = 31
NYJ D: 7 + 10 = 17
Again lower is better (IMHO as I'm just making this #### up) so big edge to NYJ
I stand by my original call and it's still a total guess.
NYJ>TEN
Chaka
Footballguy
It's nice that Schultz got so many looks these last two games but, it's a tough matchup and the TDs get distributed in that offense and I'm not sure where Schultz falls in the pecking order.
I think I go Dulcich, somewhat confidently here. Jeudy will be very limited if he plays at all and Raiders a positively reeling, particularly on defense. I mean, they've been godawful.
It's a risk as the Bronco offense has also been terrible, it's a classic case of an completely resistible force meeting an easily movable object.
As Broncos head coach, and football savant, Nathaniel Hackett said this week "Someone's gotta win". Wait, was it "football savant" or the other kind?
At any rate I think I take the risk against the Raiders:
Dulcich>Schultz
Thanks, complicating things I forgot that I could flex in Pacheco. So I'm leaning on sitting Watson tonight and if the bottom falls out in some way for the Buffalo game I can put Pacheco in for Davis.
Chaka
Footballguy
Since it's a standard league you're looking for TD upside. I think that narrows your choices down to Hunt and, speculatively, Allen Robinson. Considering how ineffective and little used Hunt has been this season (up there with AJ Dillon for RB bust of the year) I think you roll the dice with Allen Robinson & the Kuppless Rams. Robinson was averaging 5.7 targets/game with Kupp in the lineup. Obviously there will not be a 1:1 redistribution of Kupps 11 targets/game to Robinson, and he may not even get the majority of them. But even getting 2 more targets puts him above any of your other options for opportunity. I think, so long as Stafford remains in line to start I would roll with that in a standard format.
If it were PPR I would lean towards DPJ or McKinnon but I don't see those guys as having significant TD probabilities.
Robinson>Hunt>DPJ>McKinnon
I don't know who JD is on Carolina. But I think Zeke is clearly in line for more opportunities than Hunt (not even close IMO) and any Panther not named Foreman.
Zeke>The others
ETA @djjosee CLE @ BUF was just moved to DET. Weather no longer an issue
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Chaka
Footballguy
If Pacheco is an option I agree completely. I probably start Pacheco over either regardless, at least I would in a standard format, in PPR it's closer.
BroncoFreak_2K3
sucker for Orange
Stevenson or Singletary 1 PPR
Its PPR.
Tough one. Lean Singletary.
Chaka
Footballguy
In PPR I have to go with Stevenson here. He's a better runner, he gets more TD opportunities and he is used far more consistently in the passing game.
The downside is the Jets are, for sure a much tougher defense across the board; passing, rushing, scoring, turnovers everything. So this isn't a complete slam dunk, but I think Belichick v Zach Wilson is going to be the deciding factor and the Jets offense will have more trouble staying on the field hopefully leading to more offensive opportunities for New England.
Stevenson>Singletary
fightingillini
Footballguy
PPR, Kittle or Higbee at TE?
Same league, have Waddle on bye and Chase still out. Need 3 of 4 WRs listed. Which one sits?
Slayton vs DET
C Samuel at HOU
J Palmer vs KC
London vs CHI
Same league, have Waddle on bye and Chase still out. Need 3 of 4 WRs listed. Which one sits?
Slayton vs DET
C Samuel at HOU
J Palmer vs KC
London vs CHI
Chaka
Footballguy
Not much to distinguish these guys apart to be honest.
I guess it depends on the status of Mike Williams & Keenan Allen. Even if they both play I do question their effectiveness and maybe Palmer gets some higher quality targets.
I probably sit London as he's been so inconsistent and has the worst passing QB of the bunch.
Since Heinicke has taken over Samuel is getting about 4 targets and 4 rush attempts per game- with one TD in four games. Considering your options, and his opponent, he seems like a good start.
Slayton isn't worth getting excited about but the Lions on the road may be. They still give up points in bunches, even if they have played a little better defense (in one game two weeks ago).
Honestly this is a real dart throw but my opinion is:
Palmer>Samuel>Slayton>London
Nick Vermeil
Footballguy
Pick 3 (+1 per reception)
Christian Watson
Allen Lazard
Deebo Samuel
Allen Robinson
Christian Watson
Allen Lazard
Deebo Samuel
Allen Robinson
PPR league. Basically the question is, "Start C. Watson tonight? Or wait on other options after Thursday night?"
I need to fill three slots -- One WR and two flex spots. Options:
* C. Watson vs TN -- Went nuts last week. High target share. TN secondary is weak. He could boom. Could bust as well.
* JuJu @LAC -- Great matchup, but he may be out with a concussion. Not sure I can count on him.
* M. Pittman vs PHI - Hard to sit, but a bad matchup. That said, Scary Terry did pretty well against them. Ryan doesn't exactly move around like Heinecke though.
* Gus Ewards vs CAR -- Great matchup. Practiced yesterday and today. Figure 12+ carries maybe a shot at a TD.
* K. Drake vs CAR -- I bet he'll get some run in this game. Could see BALT up and then pounding.
So again, is it a no brainer to slot Watson in tonight at WR? That would leave me two flex spots to fill between the remaining 4 (and maybe it's only 3 with JuJu). Could double up with the BALT running attack one pick Gus and Pittman.
Note: While the game projection is even, my opponent has some great matchups across the board. I don't think I can play it safe.
Roll with Watson? Or wait on better options this weekend?
Thanks
I need to fill three slots -- One WR and two flex spots. Options:
* C. Watson vs TN -- Went nuts last week. High target share. TN secondary is weak. He could boom. Could bust as well.
* JuJu @LAC -- Great matchup, but he may be out with a concussion. Not sure I can count on him.
* M. Pittman vs PHI - Hard to sit, but a bad matchup. That said, Scary Terry did pretty well against them. Ryan doesn't exactly move around like Heinecke though.
* Gus Ewards vs CAR -- Great matchup. Practiced yesterday and today. Figure 12+ carries maybe a shot at a TD.
* K. Drake vs CAR -- I bet he'll get some run in this game. Could see BALT up and then pounding.
So again, is it a no brainer to slot Watson in tonight at WR? That would leave me two flex spots to fill between the remaining 4 (and maybe it's only 3 with JuJu). Could double up with the BALT running attack one pick Gus and Pittman.
Note: While the game projection is even, my opponent has some great matchups across the board. I don't think I can play it safe.
Roll with Watson? Or wait on better options this weekend?
Thanks
Bozeman Bruiser
Footballguy
ppr, flex spot, pick one (assuming JuJu clears concussion protocol, otherwise both will be starting)
Olave vs Rams
Pickens vs Bengals
A month ago this would have been a no brainer but Olave's production has dropped significantly the last 3 weeks. Pickens has put up 4 games over 14 pts ppr and 2 clunkers including a goose egg over the last 6 weeks. It looked like Canada was trying to scheme more ways to get him involved last week including 2 rushes, 1 at the goal line for a TD, so perhaps he is in for a strong finish to the season.
Olave vs Rams
Pickens vs Bengals
A month ago this would have been a no brainer but Olave's production has dropped significantly the last 3 weeks. Pickens has put up 4 games over 14 pts ppr and 2 clunkers including a goose egg over the last 6 weeks. It looked like Canada was trying to scheme more ways to get him involved last week including 2 rushes, 1 at the goal line for a TD, so perhaps he is in for a strong finish to the season.
I still would go with Olave but they both have tough matchups
undercover
Footballguy
1/2 point ppr
CPat against Chicago (concerned its a three-headed rushing attack now)
Toney against LAC (especially if Hardman and Juju are out…but late game on Sunday)
CPat against Chicago (concerned its a three-headed rushing attack now)
Toney against LAC (especially if Hardman and Juju are out…but late game on Sunday)
With that scoring I would go with Higbee since you get an extra 1/2 point for TEs and Kupp is out so I imagine that Stafford will use him as a safety net. If Stafford is out with the concussion I would start Collins.
Swift and Higbee followed by Dulcich if it has the same scoring. Williams is a little banged up so I think Swift will get more touches. I don't trust Gordon.
You can easily run against the Bears but the 3 headed monster kind of sucks! I would lean towards Patterson unless the other WRs are definitely out. I would check the practice reports and see if any of those guys are practicing tomorrow.
Chaka
Footballguy
Gotta start Deebo. He's still Deebo and when he goes full Deebo you don't want to miss it.
I am tentatively excited about Robinson this week, and going forward. He was already pulling down just under six targets a game. If he can capture 2-3 of the 11 targets Kupp was getting he almost becomes a must start in most PPR formats. There is obvious risk but I think it's not outrageous to think he could see 6 receptions for 70+ yards with a shot at a TD.
Tough call on Lazard as he only got 4 targets against the Cowboys. But the game plan for Green Bay was to run, then run and then run some more. They only threw 20 passes. I think it is likely to normalize and we will see something closer to the 36 attempts Rodgers usually has every week. Particularly as Simmons is back in the middle for Tennessee and they are very tough against the run (top 3 total yards and yards/attempt), and very poor against the pass. I have no concern about Cobb's return. Full stop. Lazard should see his usual and customary 8 targets and I think he is still the first read in the red zone.
I do like Watson and would definitely consider rolling him out. I hate chasing points but, I think there will be enough targets available to allow him to continue his audition for the #1 WR job in GB. But starting him and Lazard is difficult to do IMO. Because Watson does have highly suspect hands, I think, until we know otherwise he is more of an asset in standard formats than PPR.
Deebo>Lazard>Robinson>Watson
But if you are not risk averse then maybe Watson is a better call than Robinson. He's at least easier to root for than Robinson ATM and he has a very high ceiling.
Chaka
Footballguy
JuJu missed another practice today, I would not be optimistic for him to be an option on Sunday.
Pittman seems like a must start in this situation, IMO.
This is what I said earlier in this thread re Gus/Drake & Watson:
I stand by that.
Pittman>Watson>Gus>Drake
undercover
Footballguy
Hardman just placed on IR
Chaka
Footballguy
Yeah, it feels like defenses have figured out how to handle Dalton to Olave connection. The Saints also had four starting offensive line men out of practice yesterday, not sure what their status was today. The Saints also pass less than the Steelers 31:34 att/game.
I don't love Kenny Pickett, and I hate predicting game scripts, but I do think Cincinnati should win this game. I also think getting the running game going was a clear focus coming out of the bye but I don't think we'll see many more games where the run
ass ratio is 43:30. So I think there may be some opportunities in the passing game for Pickens this week.Pickens>Olave
Interesting you put Pittman as the lead dog. Don't love that matchup at all, but he always gets his targets. He's way overdue too. Solid floor I'd think.
Well, Watson it is.
Can deal with Pittman/Gus/Drake later. If I bust maybe I push all my chips into the BALT backfield and hope for a 38-3 blowout, 200+ yards on the ground, and 3 TDs between both Drake and Gus.
Thanks!
Chaka
Footballguy
Team A:
Nico Collins? He plays Washington. Either way Pierce is probably the only Texan I would consider.
Higbee v Robinson is difficult. They both stand to benefit in opportunity from the absence of Kupp. The offense won't be as good so there won't be exactly 11 more targets to go around. But if both of these guys are around 8 targets, in FFPC scoring Higbee has a nice edge, even if he has no TDs this season.
Higbee>Robinson>Collins
Team B:
Higbee, again seems like the smartest and safest option. After that it's murkier.
I don't view Dulcich as a consistent high target guy, but without Jeudy maybe he sees an uptick? But it feels far from certain.
Since the acquisition of Latavius Murray, Melvin has 44 opportunities to 55 for Murray. And Chase Edmonds is also lingering. Great matchup or otherwise I don't like Melvin.
I would love to say Mitchell in a plus matchup off a monster opportunity game. San Francisco wants to be a run first team and I think they have the guys to pull that off. Mitchell seems like a good option here, IMO but far from a sure thing.
It's difficult to say anything nice about Swift. I keeps producing just enough, even on very limited touches to justify hope that he may have that 15 touch game in him. The Giants are also giving up 5.5 yards/rush, worst in the league. But they're 9th in scoring and have only given up 5 rush TDs (3rd best). Plus the Lions defense has disappeared on the road a couple times this season against New England & Dallas.
It's very close between Mitchell & Swift for me so go with your gut:
Higbee>Swift>Mitchell>Dulcich>Melvin
Chaka
Footballguy
Hardman to IR, JuJu missed practice again. IIRC you have to practice at least on day to be cleared from the concussion protocol (or something like that).
Considering Patterson is also the Falcons primary kick returner, I have no problem with Toney ATM. We should have clarity on JuJu by Saturday if he doesn't clear the protocol.
Toney>Patterson
Chaka
Footballguy
It's not that I think Pittman has a great matchup but he's a very good player and, considering your other options you need him in your lineup IMO. I can't see starting both Gus & Drake, I don't think there is enough to go around in that offense to sustain two RBs and a 1,000 yard rushing QB.
And JuJu missed two practices, as I said above I think one of the requirements for clearing the concussion protocol is being able to suit up for at least one practice. But I am not 100% on how that shapes up.
Chaka
Footballguy
Oooooooffff....
Titans are tough against the run and Dillon has been one of the biggest RB disappointments of the 2022 fantasy football season. However, he's probably going to get 12-14 opportunities and Cobb may only get 4-6. Mind you Cobb has only been over four targets one time in six games (13 in week 5 v the Giants. He has been under four targets four times in six games.
So, while holding my nose and not looking directly at my monitor:
Dillon>Cobb
Chaka
Footballguy
Yeah, Davis seems like the smart play in this situation. Earlier in the thread I said Watson>Davis but with the new venue it's hard to argue against two boom bust TD guys when Davis is one of them.
Chaka
Footballguy
Think I missed this one, but just as well now that there has been a venue change in the Cle-Buf game
In a PPR I would be all over Rondale Moore but this is standard so Gabe seems like a clear choice IMO everyone else is a big dart throw:
Davis>Moore>DJ>Wilson>Boyd
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