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Week 11 2022 who should I start thread **OFFICIALLY UNOFFICIAL** (1 Viewer)

Chaka

Footballguy
This is where we ask questions and offer help. And thank you to all the posters who come here to offer that help.

A couple notes:

I attempt to give well considered responses to all questions posted. I can't get to everything, but I'll try.

1) This only works if people participate. If you ask for help it is good form to offer help to someone else.

2) It helps if you post the matchup. e.g. Mayfield vs Den or Matt Ryan @ Mia

3) Please post important league scoring considerations (e.g. PPR, super-flex etc).

4) Please go easy on the nicknames, save that for other threads. We can't help if we don't know who you are talking about.

View this as an exercise to help focus your thoughts about teams in general. Players you own may not be involved in these WDIS questions but certainly you will own players on many of these teams. Analyzing other players will help you identify things you may have otherwise not considered.
Let's kick off Week 11!
 
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Chaka

Footballguy
I always post results of my head-2-head choices for the previous week and keep a season long tally. I compare those results to the results if I used a coin toss instead.

I don't keep a tally when asked to choose between more than two players because I'm not sure how to score it and don't want to get into fractions to keep the tally.

Week 5:
I went 29-15-3 in my calls and it was a rough week for the coin toss with 19-25-3

On the season I am: 201-147-20 and the coin toss is 164-184-20

On to Week 11!
 

neal cassady

Footballguy
.5 PPR

Pick top 3, or pick 1 to bench:

Miles Sanders at Indy
Michael Pittman vs Philly
Diontae Johnson Vs Cincy
Kadarius Toney at Chargers

Also, Isiah Likely would be an option if Andrews is out, but let’s assume Andrews is playing.

Kind of leaning towards the 3 WR’s, but still not 100% sure about Toney.

Thanks as always!
 

Chaka

Footballguy
I'll go first but I think I need to wait on some injury updates.

SF, PPR:

RB - Need 2:
Drake v CAR
Gus v CAR
Jamaal Williams @ NYG
Swift @ NYG
Mitchell @ ARI
James Robinson @ NEP

Flex - Need two (super flex league):
Goff @ NYG
RB not used from above
Courtland Sutton v LVR
Christian Watson v TEN
Kadarius Toney @ LAC
 
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Chaka

Footballguy
.5 PPR

Pick top 3, or pick 1 to bench:

Miles Sanders at Indy
Michael Pittman vs Philly
Diontae Johnson Vs Cincy
Kadarius Toney at Chargers

Also, Isiah Likely would be an option if Andrews is out, but let’s assume Andrews is playing.

Kind of leaning towards the 3 WR’s, but still not 100% sure about Toney.

Thanks as always!
I understand both Pittman (so long as Ryan keeps starting) and Diontae, although 5 targets is concerning it's too early to call that a trend. Cinci is a tougher matchup and the Steelers will likely throw the ball a little more than against the Saints.

I also have trouble with Kadarius because, even with Hardman out and JuJu leaving with 6:40 left in the 2nd he only saw 28 snaps (44%) and only two opportunities before JuJu left. That could certainly go up but Hardman & JuJu will have an impact on whether or not that happens. If both of them remain out, then sure why not go with Toney. But even if one of them comes back it really clouds that situation. If both of them are back I don't think I could go with Toney, even with a nice matchup. Particularly because I think you have nice options. Mind you I think Toney could leapfrog every current KC WR eventually, like Pacheco seems to have done at RB, but it will take a few weeks before that happens. I can totally see rostering him right now, but starting him (if Hardman & JuJu are in the lineup) is a different story.

I simply don't understand why Miles Sanders gets zero respect in the magic football community. 17 opportunities per game (114 more than Gainwell, not a typo), 5 yards/carry, TD in 5 of 9 games. He's the lead back on one of the best offenses in the league. He isn't a big factor in the passing game and Hurts does steal TDs which combines to make him a #2 RB in magic football but, who benches strong #2 RBs in magic football? Honestly, even if JuJu & Hardman are out I still might start Sanders over Toney...but probably not. If one of them is back then:

Sanders>Toney*
 

BobbyLayne

Footballguy
.5 PPR

Pick top 3, or pick 1 to bench:

Miles Sanders at Indy
Michael Pittman vs Philly
Diontae Johnson Vs Cincy
Kadarius Toney at Chargers

Also, Isiah Likely would be an option if Andrews is out, but let’s assume Andrews is playing.

Kind of leaning towards the 3 WR’s, but still not 100% sure about Toney.

Thanks as always!

Think I would have Sanders over Toney. Miles / Johnson / Pittman are all close. Toney has lowest floor (presuming Hardman is back) but higher ceiling so maybe consider if you’re a favorite or a dog.
 

BobbyLayne

Footballguy
I'll go first but I think I need to wait on some injury updates.

SF, PPR:

QB - need one:
Goff @ NYG

RB - Need 2:
Drake v CAR
Gus v CAR
Jamaal Williams @ NYG
Swift @ NYG
Mitchell @ ARI
James Robinson @ NEP
Khalil Herbert @ ATL

Flex - Need one (assuming I start 2 QB):
RB not used from above
Courtland Sutton v LVR
Christian Watson v TEN
Kadarius Toney @ LAC

Yes to Goff

I have no idea how to rank those

Watson

Back to the murky mediocrity….
  1. Williams (for sure)
  2. Mr Softee
  3. Drake (2/3 are coin flip to me)
  4. Herbert
  5. Mitchell
  6. Robinson
  7. Edwards
FINAL ANSWER

Not really. With full practices I’d be tempted to hop on the Bus.

*************

WRT Swift, go to 3:18

The left Edge is way too far inside, if D’Andre cuts upfield he’s got one guy to beat - and that man is Nicholas Morrow, a 6’0” 216 lb journeyman LB. You got a choice between lowering your shoulder to gain one yard against a featherweight, or stringing it out wide & doing some half-assed scissors jump that gets smothered by the DB coming off his block.

Exactly the kind of thing Deuce Staley has been coaching - go inside, and use your leverage. When it looks tight, take small steps & press the hole, flow to the crease. Stay inside and go north/south. But he’d rather bounce and try to out quick them.

/rant

ETA: that’s back to back weeks Swift got stopped at the 1.
 

TampaMike19

Footballguy
I'll go first but I think I need to wait on some injury updates.

SF, PPR:

QB - need one:
Goff @ NYG

RB - Need 2:
Drake v CAR
Gus v CAR
Jamaal Williams @ NYG
Swift @ NYG
Mitchell @ ARI
James Robinson @ NEP
Khalil Herbert @ ATL

Flex - Need one (assuming I start 2 QB):
RB not used from above
Courtland Sutton v LVR
Christian Watson v TEN
Kadarius Toney @ LAC

Give me drake if Gus is not practicing in full and jamaal for floor. Mitchell for boom bust.

Gimme Sutton for floor, toney for ceiling. Really don’t like TNF especially for an erratic rookie
 

TampaMike19

Footballguy
.5 PPR

Pick top 3, or pick 1 to bench:

Miles Sanders at Indy
Michael Pittman vs Philly
Diontae Johnson Vs Cincy
Kadarius Toney at Chargers

Also, Isiah Likely would be an option if Andrews is out, but let’s assume Andrews is playing.

Kind of leaning towards the 3 WR’s, but still not 100% sure about Toney.

Thanks as always!

I’d bench Diontae and start sanders. If you need variance go Diontae
 

Rubi

Footballguy
Sort of a who do I start question.
Lost Goedert,Gesicki only other TE rostered on a bye.
The following are available on waivers,how would you rank them this week,not expecting a big number,just a couple catches,maybe a surprise TD
FFPC scoring:

T. McBride-Arizona
H.Henry- New England
J.Akins- Houston
J.Smith- New England
 

neal cassady

Footballguy
I'll go first but I think I need to wait on some injury updates.

SF, PPR:

RB - Need 2:
Drake v CAR
Gus v CAR
Jamaal Williams @ NYG
Swift @ NYG
Mitchell @ ARI
James Robinson @ NEP

Flex - Need two (super flex league):
Goff @ NYG
RB not used from above
Courtland Sutton v LVR
Christian Watson v TEN
Kadarius Toney @ LAC
Williams
Edwards (I’m assuming he’s good to go)

Goff
Sutton (home vs raiders..yes please)
 

BobbyLayne

Footballguy
ETN on a bye and I'm very thin
(at RB....IRL my GP says I'm 15 lbs overweight)

Full PPR, matchup is two 8-2 teams battling for the #1 seed
  • Jaylen Warren vs CIN
    you can't legislate usage

  • Nyheim Hines
    one ping...one ping only

  • James Cook
    not as good as his brother

    WW options
  • Ameer Abdullah
  • Raheem Blackshear
  • Malik Davis
  • Chase Edmonds
  • Kyren Williams
Neat-o, eh?

ETA: one RB....one RB only
 

BobbyLayne

Footballguy
Sort of a who do I start question.
Lost Goedert,Gesicki only other TE rostered on a bye.
The following are available on waivers,how would you rank them this week,not expecting a big number,just a couple catches,maybe a surprise TD
FFPC scoring:

T. McBride-Arizona
H.Henry- New England
J.Akins- Houston
J.Smith- New England

4 guys who don't run very many routes. Although he had only 1 target, McBride did run 26 routes and should have the positional snaps on lockdown with Ertz out. While you probably can't expect much, if McCoy plays again they should have some familiarity from reps as the 2s.

Henry is probably a marginally better TD bet than Smith, and the best matchup of the week.
 

Hawk Fan

Footballguy
PPR, 1/10 rush and 1/20 receive

Freiermuth vs CIN or Kmet @ATL

Starting Justin Fields at QB if that makes any difference.

Pollard @MIN or Foreman @bal

Thanks.
 

JIslander

Footballguy
Standard:

Need 2 WR:
Sutton vs LV
DPJ @ Buffalo
D. Carter vs KC

Need 1 RB to start then 2 flex from (or above):
Cordarrelle vs Chicago
Stevenson vs NYJ
Swift @ NYG
Foreman @ Baltimore
Pollard @ Minny

thanks!
 

jobarules

Footballguy
Due to injuries/bye weeks my entire team is pretty much waiver wire adds. It is painful to make lineup decisions. Im in half ppr. Big week sitting at 6-4 and have Kirk on bye and Chase waiting in wings on IR.

RB2 & Flex- I think I am starting BRobinson vs HOU and Pacheco vs LAC

WR, I have to choose 2 of the following:

Pickens vs CIN (love the talent, hate the QB)
Watson vs TEN (was it a fluke, I hate THU games)
DPJ vs BUF (consistent but tough matchup)
Palmer vs KC (IF Allen and Williams are OUT hes must start IMO)
Toney vs LAC (IF Juju and Hardman are OUT hes close to must start IMO)
DJ Moore vs BAL (the most talented but tough matchup and Baker, hes been awful)
 

Chaka

Footballguy
Sort of a who do I start question.
Lost Goedert,Gesicki only other TE rostered on a bye.
The following are available on waivers,how would you rank them this week,not expecting a big number,just a couple catches,maybe a surprise TD
FFPC scoring:

T. McBride-Arizona
H.Henry- New England
J.Akins- Houston
J.Smith- New England
First off, I want to say how much I appreciate you coming here every week. You honor me. Thank you.

Second, you're killing me.

TE questions are the suck. I don't think I had even heard of two of these guys, before your question.

Honestly, have I ever gotten one of your TE questions correct?

But, I will endeavor to give a well considered answer.

For the Patriot duo I think Hunter Henry>Jonnu Smith. It's not 2020 and it's not Tennessee. Henry has been a more consistent target and, at least last year he was a bit of a TD machine in NE. If you roll the dice on one of them it should be Henry.

I am not sure why Aikins is an option on that team in his current role.

McBride is potentially interesting. With the loss of Ertz there is a 7 target/game target vacuum, but how many of those will transfer to the rookie? Yes he has the draft pedigree, but he's suited up for four games and has four total targets, which would probably be three if Ertz hadn't gotten hurt. Even with the injury he went 1-7-0 with Colt McCoy under center. Maybe a full week of practice with the ones helps a bit but how much? The other consideration is Kyler Murray is still day-2-day, if Kyler sits can you trust McCoy to find the rookie TE? He only found Ertz once in the 11 offensive snaps they played.

The argument in favor is if Murray plays McBride has the highest theoretical target ceiling. If you think you're a big underdog this week maybe you risk it even with McCoy.

For me:
Henry>McBride>Davis>Jonnu
 

Chaka

Footballguy
ETN on a bye and I'm very thin
(at RB....IRL my GP says I'm 15 lbs overweight)

Full PPR, matchup is two 8-2 teams battling for the #1 seed
  • Jaylen Warren vs CIN
    you can't legislate usage

  • Nyheim Hines
    one ping...one ping only

  • James Cook
    not as good as his brother

    WW options
  • Ameer Abdullah
  • Raheem Blackshear
  • Malik Davis
  • Chase Edmonds
  • Kyren Williams
Neat-o, eh?

ETA: one RB....one RB only
I don't go with either of the Bills RBs. The usage is too sporadic, it doesn't seem they get high quality opportunities so your only hope is them making something happen individually and housing a long one. Also I believe there is supposed to be a big snow dump before the game maybe the conditions won't favor RBs.

Warren is probably the smart play. He's had 9 & 12 opportunities and produced at a high level with them. You can argue that Philly was a blowout and he only got garbage time but the New Orleans was close enough throughout and he still got touches. He seems to get goot passing game usage as well, which may play out well against Cincinnati at home.

For the WW guys, and this may be overthinking but I kinda like Edmonds. The Raiders are truly reeling. The defense, in particular is getting worse every week (28th scoring, 21st rushing, 26th passing, 28th overall, 32nd is takeaways). If the Broncos offense is ever going to wake up, this is the game. So, maybe, possibly there is an opportunity for a shifty scat back to do some nifty things this week. If you need a home run I think Edmonds has the best opportunity.

That being said:
Warren>Edmonds>Cook>Hines
 

Chaka

Footballguy
PPR, 1/10 rush and 1/20 receive

Freiermuth vs CIN or Kmet @ATL

Starting Justin Fields at QB if that makes any difference.

Thanks.
You have two solid TE options, of you were using FFPC scoring I would think starting both would be an option.

Friermuth has 7 or more targets in 6 of 8 games. He's a great option at home in PPR leagues. He has had trouble finding the end zone but his snaps and utilization have been excellent. I would say to auto-start him over Kmet who doesn't see nearly as many consistent targets but

That Atlanta pass D appears awful on paper. In the season the Falcons are giving up 5 more PPG than the Bengals and 75 more passing yards per game. Considering the hot streak both Fields and Kmet are on it's going to be incredibly difficult to bench this guy. But I am a bit hesitant with Kmet because the ATL @ Cin game stand as an outlier in their defensive performance (459 passing yards, 35 points). They're still bad without that game, just not quite so bad (28th instead of 32nd in pass yards, 21st instead of 27th in scoring). With it being the first road game since Kmet's hot streak started, it still being a low volume passing offense and ATL having 10 days rest I am a little more hesitant on Kmet.

Kmet is still the upside play but, for me:
Friermuth>Kmet
 

BobbyLayne

Footballguy
Due to injuries/bye weeks my entire team is pretty much waiver wire adds. It is painful to make lineup decisions. Im in half ppr. Big week sitting at 6-4 and have Kirk on bye and Chase waiting in wings on IR.

RB2 & Flex- I think I am starting BRobinson vs HOU and Pacheco vs LAC

WR, I have to choose 2 of the following:

Pickens vs CIN (love the talent, hate the QB)
Watson vs TEN (was it a fluke, I hate THU games)
DPJ vs BUF (consistent but tough matchup)
Palmer vs KC (IF Allen and Williams are OUT hes must start IMO)
Toney vs LAC (IF Juju and Hardman are OUT hes close to must start IMO)
DJ Moore vs BAL (the most talented but tough matchup and Baker, hes been awful)

RB I would roll with Pacheco

WR3 & the melancholy of infinite sadness projections:
  • DJ Moore 12.0
  • Palmer 11.7
  • Pickens 11.2
  • Watson 10.9
  • DPJ 10.7
  • Toney 10.5
Moore was seen having lunch with Baker Mayfield this week (I kid, I kid, bad preseason joke.) Think I would sit him bc his QB stinks.
Palmer seems like he is always underperforming his projections except when it's a easy plus matchup against a bad D.
Pickens is a boom/bust v difficult matchup.
Watson is an ascending talent in a great matchup.
Peoples-Jones is one of my favorite NFL players, has limitations but love how far he has come since he was drafted - good floor, low ceiling.
Toney isn't playing a lot of snaps but due to the injuries that should change (though I think I saw Hardman was going to be back this week.)

Take a chance on Watson. It'll be fun to see if he can sustain it. Gun to my head, Palmer is the chalk play, but following the herd is boring (& often wrong.) I also like DPJ if you are favored as he should give you a solid floor. Toney - think I'd wait n see how the snaps/routes run shake out; he has a super low floor IMO. I'm starting Pickens but I can see why you might want to shy away. DJ Moore will likely have a few good games between now and YE, but it is very hard to trust his QB until we see it.

ETA: Toney has played 7 and 28 offensive snaps in KC, routes run were 7 and 18. Obviously that should spike up but fundamentally I'm not sure he's that good at his craft. Uber talent with explosive splash play potential but just not sure he's the guy they want in the huddle 50+ times.
 
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Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
I know you love TE questions, so please help me to pick 1 flex player + 1 TE of these 4 options:

PPR

Kmet @ ATL
Hock Vs DAL
Jamaal Williams Vs DAL
Sutton Vs LVR

Currently have Hock & Sutton.
 

JIslander

Footballguy
Standard:

Need 2 WR:
Sutton vs LV
DPJ @ Buffalo
D. Carter vs KC

Sutton & DPJ

LAC are a mess right now. Carter feels like chasing last week’s points.

Need 1 RB to start then 2 flex from (or above):
Cordarrelle vs Chicago
Stevenson vs NYJ
Swift @ NYG
Foreman @ Baltimore
Pollard @ Minny

thanks!

Stevenson is a must-start.
Pollard is a must start.
thanks! still need a flex pick if I use Pollard or Stevenson as RB -> leaning Cordarrelle
 

Chaka

Footballguy
Pollard @MIN or Foreman @bal
Well I think this definitely is impacted by Zeke's availability. If Zeke is out I definitely start Pollard overall but a small handful of backs. But if Zeke is back, after a tough loss with Pollard as the lead back I think Zeke will lead the backfield in snaps and utilization as usual. Pollard should still see, maybe 12-16 opportunities, and he can make things happen with that kind of opportunity but I doubt he gets any goal line love.

Foreman is a monster IMO. He's good for 20+ touches/game and he's producing at a high level with those touches (4.9 y/c), he is also definitely the goal line guy. In his 4 starts he's averaging 105 yards/game. McCaffrey was better in his 6 starts at 112 y/g but I contend Foreman's style is much better suited to the current offense than McCaffrey's. Foreman grinds defenses and wears them down. He is 41-160-1 (4.0 y/c) In the first half of games and 47-254-3 (5.4y/c) In the second half of games.

Statistically Baltimore appears to have a much stronger run defense than Atlantis Cincinnati and Tampa Bay but that's only in total yards per game In yards per carry Baltimore gives up 4.3 compared to 4.4 for Atlanta and Cincinnati and 4.5 for Tampa Bay. So statistically they're actually quite close. To be fair Baltimore is defense definitely got stronger with the addition of Roquan Smith. But I don't think they're so terrifying that Caroline has going to change their game plan much.

So:
Foreman>Pollard*
 

need2know

Footballguy
Due to injuries/bye weeks my entire team is pretty much waiver wire adds. It is painful to make lineup decisions. Im in half ppr. Big week sitting at 6-4 and have Kirk on bye and Chase waiting in wings on IR.

RB2 & Flex- I think I am starting BRobinson vs HOU and Pacheco vs LAC

WR, I have to choose 2 of the following:

Pickens vs CIN (love the talent, hate the QB)
Watson vs TEN (was it a fluke, I hate THU games)
DPJ vs BUF (consistent but tough matchup)
Palmer vs KC (IF Allen and Williams are OUT hes must start IMO)
Toney vs LAC (IF Juju and Hardman are OUT hes close to must start IMO)
DJ Moore vs BAL (the most talented but tough matchup and Baker, hes been awful)
Watson and toney. You need upside. That's what these guys give you
 

Rubi

Footballguy
Sort of a who do I start question.
Lost Goedert,Gesicki only other TE rostered on a bye.
The following are available on waivers,how would you rank them this week,not expecting a big number,just a couple catches,maybe a surprise TD
FFPC scoring:

T. McBride-Arizona
H.Henry- New England
J.Akins- Houston
J.Smith- New England
First off, I want to say how much I appreciate you coming here every week. You honor me. Thank you.

Second, you're killing me.

TE questions are the suck. I don't think I had even heard of two of these guys, before your question.

Honestly, have I ever gotten one of your TE questions correct?

But, I will endeavor to give a well considered answer.

For the Patriot duo I think Hunter Henry>Jonnu Smith. It's not 2020 and it's not Tennessee. Henry has been a more consistent target and, at least last year he was a bit of a TD machine in NE. If you roll the dice on one of them it should be Henry.

I am not sure why Aikins is an option on that team in his current role.

McBride is potentially interesting. With the loss of Ertz there is a 7 target/game target vacuum, but how many of those will transfer to the rookie? Yes he has the draft pedigree, but he's suited up for four games and has four total targets, which would probably be three if Ertz hadn't gotten hurt. Even with the injury he went 1-7-0 with Colt McCoy under center. Maybe a full week of practice with the ones helps a bit but how much? The other consideration is Kyler Murray is still day-2-day, if Kyler sits can you trust McCoy to find the rookie TE? He only found Ertz once in the 11 offensive snaps they played.

The argument in favor is if Murray plays McBride has the highest theoretical target ceiling. If you think you're a big underdog this week maybe you risk it even with McCoy.

For me:
Henry>McBride>Davis>Jonnu
Thanks for the props. That's why I come here every week,I enjoy getting differing opinions that are well thought out. Appreciate the work you do here,right or wrong it's great.
 

ZADO

Footballguy
Just an FYI for this week

GFS model casually throwing out 30"+ of snow for the Buffalo area late week into the weekend. Still far too early to get overly detailed and specific. But the setup certainly appears favorable for the potential of FEET of snow downwind of Lake Erie.
 

Chaka

Footballguy
Standard:

Need 2 WR:
Sutton vs LV
DPJ @ Buffalo
D. Carter vs KC

Need 1 RB to start then 2 flex from (or above):
Cordarrelle vs Chicago
Stevenson vs NYJ
Swift @ NYG
Foreman @ Baltimore
Pollard @ Minny

thanks!
I don't like D. Carter as much as Sutton, great matchup and likely no Jeudy, or DPJ who has been incredibly consistent over his last six games. Carter, IMO, has by far the lowest floor and I am not sure his ceiling is any higher than the others. That call is pretty clear to me.

DPJ>Sutton>Carter

If Zeke is out Pollard starts over all but a very small handful of RBs in the NFL. If Zeke plays...much more difficult call.

For sure I like Stevenson & Foreman over the others, too much consistent opportunity for both of them and neither matchup should be overly concerning than the others.

Considering your options, I definitely bench Swift. His usage is simply too limited and the Lions have been very uneven on the road. Dude can house one at any time but so can Pollard and I am more confident in Pollard getting 12-16 touches (if Zeke is out) than with Swift doing the same.

Cordarrelle is definitely a TD machine and the Bears scoring and rush defense are very bad. It's a home game too, on 10 days rest and pretty much a must win too. But his usage last week was very concerning, maybe due to a short week? Patterson was the primary kickoff return guy, which I don't like from a guy who is supposed to be my starting RB. He had only two carries on the first drive of the 3rd then nothing except a kickoff return in the 4th quarter. To be fair, no ATL RB really had a bunch of opportunities, Allgeier led the way with 11 but Huntley (5) and even Avery Williams (4) were used almost as much as Cordarrelle (6) WTH? Great matchup but, man there are some red flags too.

Final guess (it's always a guess):
Stevenson>Foreman>Pollard>Cordarrelle>Swift
 

jobarules

Footballguy
Just an FYI for this week

GFS model casually throwing out 30"+ of snow for the Buffalo area late week into the weekend. Still far too early to get overly detailed and specific. But the setup certainly appears favorable for the potential of FEET of snow downwind of Lake Erie.
Everything seems to show it end Sunday morning so field should be clear by game time. Gonna be FREEZING though
 

Chaka

Footballguy
Due to injuries/bye weeks my entire team is pretty much waiver wire adds. It is painful to make lineup decisions. Im in half ppr. Big week sitting at 6-4 and have Kirk on bye and Chase waiting in wings on IR.

RB2 & Flex- I think I am starting BRobinson vs HOU and Pacheco vs LAC

WR, I have to choose 2 of the following:

Pickens vs CIN (love the talent, hate the QB)
Watson vs TEN (was it a fluke, I hate THU games)
DPJ vs BUF (consistent but tough matchup)
Palmer vs KC (IF Allen and Williams are OUT hes must start IMO)
Toney vs LAC (IF Juju and Hardman are OUT hes close to must start IMO)
DJ Moore vs BAL (the most talented but tough matchup and Baker, hes been awful)
Yeah, these are a lot of tough calls. I think you need to wait on some practice reports before making any definitive calls. Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, JuJu & Hardman).

If Pittsburgh doesn't have to pass, they're not going to pass the ball. However, they are flexible and if need be they'll put it up 40+ times even with a rookie QB. While I hate to predict game scripts, I am okay with picking winners & losers. I think Cincinnati wins this game, not a lock by any means but I think they are the better team. It could be close and ugly or it could be high flying but I think Cinci wins. So, maybe, possibly Pickett will have to pass 40 times.

Thursday games are the suck, but scoring trends are identical with Sunday games (the data supports this even if it doesn't seem that way when we watch the games) and every single 3 TD game in NFL history is, to some degree, a fluke. The question isn't will Watson score more TDs, it's will he continue to see eight targets per game? It's difficult to say he hasn't earned the opportunities for at least another week.

DPJ definitely has a tough matchup on paper but if you look closer at the numbers the Bills receiving defense is on par with the Patriots, Bengals & Chargers and DPJ averaged 4-68-0 against those teams. The problem is the Bills are a great scoring defense (#2 @ 16.8 ppg). But DPJ has been remarkably consistent over his last 6 games without scoring any TDs.

Keenan Allen & Mike Williams were out last week and Palmer laid an egg. Still, volume is volume and without those guys in the lineup Palmer manages 10 targets/game. So yes, he is probably a good start considering your other options.

Okay, IF BOTH JuJu & Hardman are out I can absolutely see starting Toney, but what if only one of them is out? Can I really recommend him over DPJ, Watson or Pickens? IDK. I really think we need to wait for practice reports before deciding anything about Toney.

Yeah, I think, on paper the Baltimore pass d, and scoring d, looks a lot worse than it actually is. That Miami game really stands out as an outlier with 461 passing yards (in their other 8 games they have given up 297, 302, 201, 190, 155, 223, 305 & 195 pass yards) and 42 points (in their other 8 games they gave up (9, 26, 23, 17, 24, 20, 22 & 13). The only Panther I probably won't make an argument to bench is Foreman. I don't think I can trust Moore until I see a few more games with Baker.

So, for now:
Palmer*>DPJ>Watson>Pickens>Toney*>DJ

Repost after the Friday practice reports so we have a better idea what to expect (sucks you'll have to decide on Watson before then but... :shrug: )
 

BobbyLayne

Footballguy
I know you love TE questions, so please help me to pick 1 flex player + 1 TE of these 4 options:

PPR

Kmet @ ATL
Hock Vs DAL
Jamaal Williams Vs DAL
Sutton Vs LVR

Currently have Hock & Sutton.

Sounds about right. Boy if ever there was a git rite game for Russ, this is it

#letsridebronconation
 

BobbyLayne

Footballguy
Just an FYI for this week

GFS model casually throwing out 30"+ of snow for the Buffalo area late week into the weekend. Still far too early to get overly detailed and specific. But the setup certainly appears favorable for the potential of FEET of snow downwind of Lake Erie.

14-18 mph winds concerns me more than a couple snowflakes

But I’m starting Diggs regardless
 

Chaka

Footballguy
I know you love TE questions, so please help me to pick 1 flex player + 1 TE of these 4 options:

PPR

Kmet @ ATL
Hock Vs DAL
Jamaal Williams Vs DAL
Sutton Vs LVR

Currently have Hock & Sutton.
If you look at it with a positive spin you have a bunch of good options who all stand to see good volume.

Despite being a road game and still having a very low volume passing game it's tough to bench Kmet on his hot streak. It would be an easy decision but, who saw 10 targets/game being the norm for Hock in Minnesota?

I am facing Jamaal v Sutton in flex myself (I have a few different options). The Giants have been vulnerable against the run, at least they have against good rush teams (week one v Tenn now looks like an outlier). But they are still a top 10 scoring defense. Detroit is a pretty good rush offense and are a top 10 scoring offense. It isn't a bad matchup on paper for Jamaal. My concern is Detroit has been very Jekyll & Hyde, particularly on the road. I just don't know what team is going to show up. Are they on a mini-run and building momentum into next season? Or are the last two weeks an aberration. I guess the Dallas & New England games are receding in the mirror as they have played very tough over the last three (as they did over their first four games). So I like Jamaal but, definitely with hesitation.

Benching Jamaal would be easier if Sutton wasn't one of the biggest WR busts relative to ADP in all magic football this year. But if the Broncos are going to get right on offense, even if for only one game, this is the week. The Raiders are absolutely reeling, particularly on defense where they are 28th scoring, 21st rushing, 26th passing, 28th overall, 32nd in takeaways. Add in Jeudy may miss this game, or be limited if he does play and it seems like an auto start, right? RIGHT?!?!?!!? IDK, Jeudy went down on Denver's first offensive snap against a terrible pass defense that was missing their best DL, best LB & best safety and Sutton managed to produce the mark of the Devil (6 for 66). The upside is I'm an atheist and he got 11 targets so, there is definitely some reason for optimism.

This is what I said about Kmet above
Considering the hot streak both Fields and Kmet are on it's going to be incredibly difficult to bench this guy. But I am a bit hesitant with Kmet because the ATL @ Cin game stand as an outlier in their defensive performance (459 passing yards, 35 points). They're still bad without that game, just not quite so bad (28th instead of 32nd in pass yards, 21st instead of 27th in scoring). With it being the first road game since Kmet's hot streak started, it still being a low volume passing offense and ATL having 10 days rest I am a little more hesitant on Kmet.
And I ultimately recommended Freirmuth over Kmet in that post. But the Dallas defense, on paper, is tougher than the Cincinnati defense.

This is really a dart throw of some solid options so don't overstress it. I think, and will absolutely flip flop a bunch between now and Sunday:

Hock>Kmet

Jamaal>Sutton>Kmet


But I honestly have no confidence in that reco. Jamall over Kmet because they both have 2 TD upside and Jamaal will get more opportunities. Sutton over Kmet because of a feeling that may be rooted in being a long suffering Raider fan.
 

Chaka

Footballguy
Ppr

Toney @ chargers
Or
Watson vs tn
Man, when you figure this out be sure to let me know.

This would be much easier if we had any info on the KC WR status for Sunday. I honestly think you have to at the very least wait until tomorrow and hope the KC practice report suggests anything. If Hardman and JuJu are DNP today and tomorrow maybe Toney is worth the roll of the dice.

ATM I think maybe the safe play is to assume Watson has, for at least one more game, earned another 8 or so looks. If he drops one early, all bets are off, but 8 targets at home against a not very good Tenn pass D isn't a terrible option considering the circumstances.

Watson>Toney*
 

Chaka

Footballguy
Just an FYI for this week

GFS model casually throwing out 30"+ of snow for the Buffalo area late week into the weekend. Still far too early to get overly detailed and specific. But the setup certainly appears favorable for the potential of FEET of snow downwind of Lake Erie.
Yeah, thanks. I have been following this a bit. Snow doesn't concern me so much if it all dumps before the game, if the storm continues during the game then wind becomes a big concern and even if wind is not a problem if it's dumping a bunch of snow during the game footing becomes an issue in the trenches, although I am not sure which trench suffers more.
 

papacapps

Footballguy
Full PPR, debating J Conner vs SF of M Sanders @ Indy at FLEX.

Currently leaning Conner; however, I could see Sanders getting a ton of rushes if the Eagles get a decent lead over the Colts.
 

jobarules

Footballguy
Full PPR, debating J Conner vs SF of M Sanders @ Indy at FLEX.

Currently leaning Conner; however, I could see Sanders getting a ton of rushes if the Eagles get a decent lead over the Colts.
This is a tough one but I would also lean Conner. Not only does he stay on the field almost the whole game but he gets goalline touches and catches out of the backfield. None of those 3 things you can say about Sanders.
 

Chaka

Footballguy
Full PPR, debating J Conner vs SF of M Sanders @ Indy at FLEX.

Currently leaning Conner; however, I could see Sanders getting a ton of rushes if the Eagles get a decent lead over the Colts.
Yeah, I am a big Sanders fan and a Conner denier to boot but it's tough to bench a guy like Conner with his TD upside.

However the Niners have the best run defense in the NFL, and it's not an aberration as we sometimes see when a team has a good run D on paper but it's because teams pass on them all day. The Niners lead the league in rush yards against 82.7 and, more importantly, in yards per carry against at 3.4 which is almost a half yard better than the next best team. They have given up 8 rush TDs on the season but, looking into the numbers a little deeper two of those were trickeration Mecole Hardman TDs so they're very stout in rush scores too. Speaking of which they are the #4 scoring defense in the NFL. All of that adds up to a very tough day for Cardinal RBs, and that's before you consider the possibility that Kyler Murray may miss another game.

The Colts do have a decent defense and, offense is better with Matt Ryan under center and they surely got a confidence boost against the reeling Raiders last week. It's difficult to guarantee a Philly win, although I do think Philly wins. Sanders didn't have a great game last week but he was efficient with 4.5 yards per carry. I do think he can have a fine game this week against a Colts defense that is down Shaq Leonard. Although I like him less in full PPR formats as he is an after thought in the passing game.

Yeah, it is a difficult call and I worry my biases may be influencing me but I'm not chasing Conner's TDs:

Sanders>Conner
 

themeistersinger

Footballguy
ETN on a bye and I'm very thin
(at RB....IRL my GP says I'm 15 lbs overweight)

Full PPR, matchup is two 8-2 teams battling for the #1 seed
  • Jaylen Warren vs CIN
    you can't legislate usage

  • Nyheim Hines
    one ping...one ping only

  • James Cook
    not as good as his brother

    WW options
  • Ameer Abdullah
  • Raheem Blackshear
  • Malik Davis
  • Chase Edmonds
  • Kyren Williams
Neat-o, eh?

ETA: one RB....one RB only
Najee has a bum knee - he is expected to play though. I would lean to Warren.
 

JIslander

Footballguy
Would you drop the likes of my TE 2 Knox (I have Schultz) or QB 2 Garoppolo (I have Allen) to grab Rashaad White? or drop Kupp?!?

TE's now more scarce with Goedert out ---
 

yoman

Footballguy
Would you drop the likes of my TE 2 Knox (I have Schultz) or QB 2 Garoppolo (I have Allen) to grab Rashaad White? or drop Kupp?!?

TE's now more scarce with Goedert out ---
Yes - I usually don't keep more than 1 QB when I have a stud at the top. Jimmy G is a good BU but there are plenty of streamers out there. Knox is next on the list because he is as up and down as the rest of the TEs. As for Cupp - I don't know if he will be back and IMHO is worth getting rid of if you need to win now because he probably won't be back until the late playoffs. His injury is 4-6 weeks and the team is going nowhere so I expect it to be towards the latter or maybe they shut him down this year. Do you have an IR slot?
 

yoman

Footballguy
I know you love TE questions, so please help me to pick 1 flex player + 1 TE of these 4 options:

PPR

Kmet @ ATL
Hock Vs DAL
Jamaal Williams Vs DAL
Sutton Vs LVR

Currently have Hock & Sutton.
I think you have it right at TE even though Kmet has been a beast. It's unusual to have 2 really good TE options in this day and age
Sutton is going to get a boatload of targets - especially if Jeudy is not back. Even though they are calling it day to day I don't expect him to be back this weekend. I think the Dallas D will be better this week but Williams is also a good play. It is a close to a coin flip but since it is PPR I would go with Sutton.
 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
I know you love TE questions, so please help me to pick 1 flex player + 1 TE of these 4 options:

PPR

Kmet @ ATL
Hock Vs DAL
Jamaal Williams Vs DAL
Sutton Vs LVR

Currently have Hock & Sutton.
I think you have it right at TE even though Kmet has been a beast. It's unusual to have 2 really good TE options in this day and age
Sutton is going to get a boatload of targets - especially if Jeudy is not back. Even though they are calling it day to day I don't expect him to be back this weekend. I think the Dallas D will be better this week but Williams is also a good play. It is a close to a coin flip but since it is PPR I would go with Sutton.
Re: Sutton, agree. Plus Hamler is out. And Jeudy should be limited at best.

I have concern about the # of targets for Kmet. I hate chasing last week’s points. I feel like DAL will have no choice but to leave Hock alone on short & intermediate routes.
 

Largent72

Footballguy
I'll go first but I think I need to wait on some injury updates.

SF, PPR:

RB - Need 2:
Drake v CAR
Gus v CAR
Jamaal Williams @ NYG
Swift @ NYG
Mitchell @ ARI
James Robinson @ NEP

Flex - Need two (super flex league):
Goff @ NYG
RB not used from above
Courtland Sutton v LVR
Christian Watson v TEN
Kadarius Toney @ LAC

Gus > Drake
Williams > Swift
Mitchell > JRob.

Of those 3 I like Gus and Mitchell this week

Flex: Goff and Sutton....show me again on Watson/Toney.
 

Largent72

Footballguy
.5 PPR Flex Spot:

Current starters:
Fields
Pierce
Pollard
Jefferson
AJ Brown
Andrews
FLEX 1: Tee Higgins
FLEX 2: Pacheco or Rondale Moore vs SF or Toney vs LAC or Michael Carter vs NE

Pacheco indeed seems like the lead runner - and LAC should be over by 3Q (should), and get him going for the home stretch. Moore with no Ertz and been getting great target share already.

Thanks
 

Chaka

Footballguy
Would you drop the likes of my TE 2 Knox (I have Schultz) or QB 2 Garoppolo (I have Allen) to grab Rashaad White? or drop Kupp?!?

TE's now more scarce with Goedert out ---
If it's a super flex league I drop Knox, if not probably Garoppolo.

I don't drop Kupp, even on a crappy team he is a monster.

And, yes I would try to get White.
 

Chaka

Footballguy
.5 PPR Flex Spot:

Current starters:
Fields
Pierce
Pollard
Jefferson
AJ Brown
Andrews
FLEX 1: Tee Higgins
FLEX 2: Pacheco or Rondale Moore vs SF or Toney vs LAC or Michael Carter vs NE

Pacheco indeed seems like the lead runner - and LAC should be over by 3Q (should), and get him going for the home stretch. Moore with no Ertz and been getting great target share already.

Thanks
Ad you pointed out Toney needs to show us one more time, although if JuJu & Hardman are both out this week (MVS didn't practice today either with an illness). I put Pacheco in the same boat with Toney, I'd like to see one more game with that kind of utilization, plus in a 0.5 PPR he needs to be downgraded a bit as well because he likely isn't getting used in the passing game. That makes him TD dependent. Of course in that offense he could score three short yardage TDs, I just wouldn't want to bank on it any given week.

I think you have that luxury as Moore has been getting a ton of targets over the last three games with both Murray and McCoy and now with Ertz out I think he and Hopkins will be the prime beneficiary.

Moore>Pacheco>Toney>Carter
 

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