Week 11 Wire Pickups (1 Viewer)

[Biabreakable]

Misinformation? 

Misinformation in the advanced metrics and graphs depicting relative ability by percentile. In my view your certainly seem to be misinterpreting the data which isn't your fault because of how misleading it is.

There is a lot of noise in how these metrics are calculated as I went into detail about in my previous post.

I am merely talking about the data here and how it is being represented. It is an embarrassment to the scientific method and Kelly is a hack, a snake oil peddler who gives a bad name to statistical analysis through his products.

With the robust amount of data that he has compiled one might think he could apply qualitative analysis to support the usefulness of the metrics he presents. But he has no interest in doing that. He does a disservice to the fantasy community in the process.

 

[Casting Couch]

Im confused about the sudden McKissic love. 

this

 

[JFS171]

966 rushing yards in 2015 according to this not a huge difference, if 6 was 9.

He split carries with two other RB in 2015 and barely any production as a receiver. That role of a receiving RB seems to have gone to Lajuan Hunt who had 27 receptions to Mayes one.

I don't find his rushing totals from 2015 to be very impressive considering he played in 13 games. 74 rushing yards per game. Looking at the game logs you see an inconsistent player who enjoyed most of his success against Fresno State, Wyoming, Nevada, Akron and relatively poor performance against some of the better schools on his schedule, such as New Mexico and Bringham Young.

To some extent, your last paragraph about beating up on certain schools applies to every player.  

Jamaal Williams posted 48% of his 2016 rushing yardage against West Virginia, Toledo, Utah State, and Wyoming.  He was held under 4 YPC by UCLA, Mississippi State, and Cincinnati.

 

[beerbuff]

Drake or Perine ROS? Both are sitting on my wire

I'd go with Drake. Perine hasn't looked very good this season while Drake has looked serviceable and Williams isn't 100 percent healthy.

 

[Men-in-Cleats]

In one of my leagues (12 team PPR) I had Jones and Montgomery who left last week's game with injuries, and Mcaffrey and Bilal Powell on a bye on my roster for RB.  Have missed out on any major RB FA to add to my bench for most of the season as I've been in 1st place up until this week where I fell to second and have been too low on waiver priority, my depth really sucks.  This week missed out on Perrine, Williams, and Ekeler and will likely have to pick up a pair of McKissic, R. Smith, or someone like Yeldon who's gotten some passing down work recently and has a good matchup.  Really having to scrape the bottom of the barrel in that league with some what the heck flyers given that you can start a 3rd RB in the flex spot and they are very thin on the WW.

 

[Biabreakable]

To some extent, your last paragraph about beating up on certain schools applies to every player.  

Jamaal Williams posted 48% of his 2016 rushing yardage against West Virginia, Toledo, Utah State, and Wyoming.  He was held under 4 YPC by UCLA, Mississippi State, and Cincinnati.

Thats fair and happens with all college players.

Just making the point that the raw stats for Mays are not as impressive when you look at how they were compiled. 

The same is true for Jamal Williams, however the raw stats for Williams are greater than what Mays compiled and he has been used as a receiver more than Mays was early on in his career as well. Comparing both players based on their college performance Williams has done more than Mays has. 

 

[Cowboysfan8]

Rodgers is eligible to return Wk 15 vs. Carolina.

IMO, the Packers need to go 2-2 the next four games for AR to play Wk 15. That would put them at 7-6 and still in the hunt. They play BAL/PIT/TB/CLE so doable.

In addition, the Lions not only play MIN but also BAL. They could easily be 7-6 after the next four games.

I am holding onto Rodgers unless there is a setback and he doesn't start throwing in practice as scheduled.

I realize it's Rodgers but Car and Minny aren't exactly good matchups in wks 15 and 16

 

[PPRGuy]

My little brain can't handle owning Packers, Patriots, or Seahawks RBs this year. Every week it's a different flavor, and in two weeks, one of the four will be the guy to own. Seems like it's been that way all year.

You couldn't have said that better^ LOL

I play in a PPR so this may differ substantially but, I wouldn't mind taking a risk on any of the patriots RBs (not gillislee) as a flex just because I think they all have 15 point upside everyweek ROS and their floor could be worse IMO...

Like I would start Dion/Burkhead/white over TY

White's a startable RB2 in PPR this year given all the injuries to the position

 

[Futz]

Regarding the McKissic discussion, I wouldn't be shocked to see Mike Davis get a shot to do something here.  I think if they were going to hand the keys over to McKissic, that would have happened already.  Instead they shoehorned Lacy, then tried with Rawls, and have tried to mix in Prosise.  Injuries have certainly played a role with those guys, but Seattle seems to be searching for reasons to not use JDM.

Mike Davis was a good prospect (especially following his junior season at USC).  He was drafted behind Hyde and didn't get much of a shot with the multiple regime turnovers in SF.  Seattle claimed him off waivers, and he looked like their best back this preseason.  There were rumors they wanted to keep him on the practice squad until at least week 13 so he wouldn't accumulate a year of service, and thus they'd have him under contract for 2018 too.  However, he'll now be a restricted FA in 2018.  

He's playing with a huge chip on his shoulder, has "fresh legs" ... and Seattle very well may have cut their two best backs in getting to the final 53 (letting Collins and Davis go).  Time will tell, but I think he's worth a spot in deep leagues.

This thought crossed my mind when I heard he was coming off the PS. Rawls is as done as anyone has been done before. The ankle injuries took away a step and he didn't have many to begin with. I think Seattle knows McKissic is NOT a feature back. He's a former WR turned RB and before people starting pointing at Montgomery, he's 20 pounds lighter and an inch shorter than him. He just doesn't fit the mold and especially not behind this offensive line. Even from a PPR standpoint, he's only getting 3 targets a game. This is no bueno. Lacy is well, Lacy. I haven't even thought about adding him for years.

I might just get sneaky with Davis before it happens.

 

[PPRGuy]

In one of my leagues (12 team PPR) I had Jones and Montgomery who left last week's game with injuries, and Mcaffrey and Bilal Powell on a bye on my roster for RB.  Have missed out on any major RB FA to add to my bench for most of the season as I've been in 1st place up until this week where I fell to second and have been too low on waiver priority, my depth really sucks.  This week missed out on Perrine, Williams, and Ekeler and will likely have to pick up a pair of McKissic, R. Smith, or someone like Yeldon who's gotten some passing down work recently and has a good matchup.  Really having to scrape the bottom of the barrel in that league with some what the heck flyers given that you can start a 3rd RB in the flex spot and they are very thin on the WW.

Since you're in a PPR I would definitely take a look at a couple matchup pros and gamescript projection. 

Guys I could totally start in desperation this week include(in order):

Charcandrick West - Giants this week, makes for a high scoring affair... I could totally see a 3-4 receptions for west with the possibility of a redzone look or 2
Plus if the game gets out of hand and the chiefs run away with it I have seen Andy Reid this season pull hunt for the last couple drives for west in blowouts

Gio Bernard - Denver may make it tough for mixon to run... long 3rd downs and the may lock down receivers so dalton checks down more this game.... With the loss of Jhill I think Gio sees right around 30-35% of the snaps and a good amount of targets.

Jalen richard - Recently has carved out a very consistent ppr wise and will be on the field if the Pats take a big early lead... very possible

Terron Ward - Very sneaky desperation play if freeman is out.... That Offense just likes to rotate TWO RBs so he could find his way to some value

 

[Men-in-Cleats]

Since you're in a PPR I would definitely take a look at a couple matchup pros and gamescript projection. 

Guys I could totally start in desperation this week include(in order):

Charcandrick West - Giants this week, makes for a high scoring affair... I could totally see a 3-4 receptions for west with the possibility of a redzone look or 2
Plus if the game gets out of hand and the chiefs run away with it I have seen Andy Reid this season pull hunt for the last couple drives for west in blowouts

Gio Bernard - Denver may make it tough for mixon to run... long 3rd downs and the may lock down receivers so dalton checks down more this game.... With the loss of Jhill I think Gio sees right around 30-35% of the snaps and a good amount of targets.

Jalen richard - Recently has carved out a very consistent ppr wise and will be on the field if the Pats take a big early lead... very possible

Terron Ward - Very sneaky desperation play if freeman is out.... That Offense just likes to rotate TWO RBs so he could find his way to some value

Thought about West but he doesn't get consistent enough touches as he had 2 pts or less 3 of his last 4 games.  You're pretty much praying for a TD there.  Bernard is gone so not an option.  Richard has split so much with Washington in the secondary role that you really just don't have a clue which one will have the big game.  Both sucked in their last game.  Ward I'll have to take a look at, didn't think of him. 

 

[ATB]

Anyone feel like Ekeler has a shot at supplanting Gordon for the Chargers? My spidey sense is tingling and I feel like Gordon may be dealing with something that's hindering his performance on the field. 

May be worth a speculative add. 

 

[zamboni]

Anyone feel like Ekeler has a shot at supplanting Gordon for the Chargers? My spidey sense is tingling and I feel like Gordon may be dealing with something that's hindering his performance on the field. 

May be worth a speculative add. 

I asked about his dynasty value in the Ekeler thread. For redraft,  I think he'll have a key role, but this is Gordon's backfield. Ekeler's costly fumble at the end of regulation last week didn't help his cause despite the strong performance.

 

[TartanLion]

I've bagged Ekeler in any league where I can. Get the feeling Gordon is breaking down, if the Chargers keep losing games then maybe just when the playoffs hit Ekeler could be getting given an extended run. 

 

[PPRGuy]

Thought about West but he doesn't get consistent enough touches as he had 2 pts or less 3 of his last 4 games.  You're pretty much praying for a TD there.  Bernard is gone so not an option.  Richard has split so much with Washington in the secondary role that you really just don't have a clue which one will have the big game.  Both sucked in their last game.  Ward I'll have to take a look at, didn't think of him. 

I mean you're looking for a desperation play so the obvious cons are there or they would be rostered... If you have a shot at any pats RB I'd take a swing at them too.I do like Rod Smith against the Eagles this week though that you mentioned earlier, didn't bring him up because of that.

Best of luck this week, I hope it works out!

 

[dcgangstas]

Anyone feel like Ekeler has a shot at supplanting Gordon for the Chargers? My spidey sense is tingling and I feel like Gordon may be dealing with something that's hindering his performance on the field. 

May be worth a speculative add. 

No chance Ekeler replaces Gordon as the everydown RB for LA. 

For all of his faults, Melvin Gordon is one of the few bell-cow RBs in the league.   The Chargers had planned to get Ekeler a few more carries to spell Gordon since he's been dinged up a bit.   Ekeler played very well with his touches last week, but the coaches got a bit too cute by trying to run the clock out with Ekeler and it cost them a win.

Gordon has every opportunity to be a league-winner for his owners.  He should have a monster game against the Bills, who no longer have Marcell Dareus manning the interior line.   Buffalo got gashed by New Orleans for 285 yards rushing and have given up 495 yards rushing in the past two games!   Then he gets the Sean Lee-less Dallas defense in Week 12 and Cleveland in Week 13.    A suddenly leaky Redskins front seven at home in Week 14, a sieve-like Chiefs defense in Week 15, and the Jets in Week 16.  Giddy-up.      

 

[Men-in-Cleats]

I mean you're looking for a desperation play so the obvious cons are there or they would be rostered... If you have a shot at any pats RB I'd take a swing at them too.I do like Rod Smith against the Eagles this week though that you mentioned earlier, didn't bring him up because of that.

Best of luck this week, I hope it works out!

Very true.  I think your West suggestion probably has the highest ceiling of the guys mentioned but a slightly lower floor considering he's went 2 pts or less three of the last four weeks with one a goose egg.  I'm up against the last place team whose RB situation may be worse than mine this week so don't have to go for the all or nothing types and swing at the fences.  Just trying to get some minimal contribution and hope my advantages at other positions make up for the differences. 

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

No chance Ekeler replaces Gordon as the everydown RB for LA. 

For all of his faults, Melvin Gordon is one of the few bell-cow RBs in the league.   The Chargers had planned to get Ekeler a few more carries to spell Gordon since he's been dinged up a bit.   Ekeler played very well with his touches last week, but the coaches got a bit too cute by trying to run the clock out with Ekeler and it cost them a win.

Gordon has every opportunity to be a league-winner for his owners.  He should have a monster game against the Bills, who no longer have Marcell Dareus manning the interior line.   Buffalo got gashed by New Orleans for 285 yards rushing and have given up 495 yards rushing in the past two games!   Then he gets the Sean Lee-less Dallas defense in Week 12 and Cleveland in Week 13.    A suddenly leaky Redskins front seven at home in Week 14, a sieve-like Chiefs defense in Week 15, and the Jets in Week 16.  Giddy-up.    

That schedule works for Ekeler too. Gordon goes 16/27, Ekeler goes 10/42. Ok. I'm not sure how much non-production a coaching staff is supposed to take, no matter the reason.

 

[TripleThreat]

chewing on Golladay, Inman and Coleman.  

 

[simey]

Ekeler played very well with his touches last week, but the coaches got a bit too cute by trying to run the clock out with Ekeler and it cost them a win.

The Chargers still could have won that game after the fumble. Also, Lynn and Rivers both said he (Ekeler) was a big reason they were even in the game.

 

[JoeyJoJoJuniorShabadoo]

Anyone feel like Ekeler has a shot at supplanting Gordon for the Chargers? My spidey sense is tingling and I feel like Gordon may be dealing with something that's hindering his performance on the field. 

May be worth a speculative add. 

I don't think he has a shot at supplanting him UNLESS your spidey sense is correct and Gordon is injured. But it could be a potential RBBC.

As a Gordon owner I grabbed Ekeler off FA just in case, as much as I hate burning a roster spot when I'm fighting for playoff spot.

 

[BearsFan4Life]

Picked up Russell Shepherd while Carolina on a bye ....14 team 20 man dynasty rosters .. wasn't much left out there.

 

[wormburner]

The flipside of ww pickups is who gets dropped to make room for the new toy.

I picked up Danny Woodhead a couple of weeks ago looking forward to his week 11 return.  Now, it seems not only unlikely he will play this week, but that Allen or Collins may not yield much to him whenever he does come back.  Seems like a RBBC at best, less than that for Woodhead at worst.  Are any of you other holders rethinking the value of keeping him any longer?

 

[Scruff Mcgruff]

Just for a weekly pickup if you are desperate in redraft leagues I think Keelan Cole is a sneaky choice. He's been picking up around 3 catches for 45 yards consistently the past three weeks and now Hurns is out. I know Dede Westbrook will be playing this week but i feel like he'll be more of a decoy coming off the injury and Cole will have single coverage and his best game of the season. He's worth a try in deep leagues at flex spot.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Just for a weekly pickup if you are desperate in redraft leagues I think Keelan Cole is a sneaky choice. He's been picking up around 3 catches for 45 yards consistently the past three weeks and now Hurns is out. I know Dede Westbrook will be playing this week but i feel like he'll be more of a decoy coming off the injury and Cole will have single coverage and his best game of the season. He's worth a try in deep leagues at flex spot.

It's occurred to me this might happen. Just in terms of considering a bench stash of Westbrook. This week may not be the full usage everyone expects and maybe Cole gets the rock and even surprises a little in a good matchup.

 

[Weebs210]

Eh I'd rather start Dede if I had to choose between the two.

 

[dcgangstas]

I don't think he has a shot at supplanting him UNLESS your spidey sense is correct and Gordon is injured. But it could be a potential RBBC.

As a Gordon owner I grabbed Ekeler off FA just in case, as much as I hate burning a roster spot when I'm fighting for playoff spot.

Same here.     

Unless you're extremely loaded at RB, all Gordon owners should have Ekeler rostered.   

 

[SameSongNDance]

I don't think he has a shot at supplanting him UNLESS your spidey sense is correct and Gordon is injured. But it could be a potential RBBC.

As a Gordon owner I grabbed Ekeler off FA just in case, as much as I hate burning a roster spot when I'm fighting for playoff spot.

He is injured or else he's just terrible. I refuse to believe the dude I watched run vs JAC last week isn't injured or else that performance is inexcusable.

Ekeler won't supplant Gordon, I doubt LAC even remotely views him as a bellcow type back but I do think he forces some type of timeshare. 

 

[Isotopes]

The flipside of ww pickups is who gets dropped to make room for the new toy.

I picked up Danny Woodhead a couple of weeks ago looking forward to his week 11 return.  Now, it seems not only unlikely he will play this week, but that Allen or Collins may not yield much to him whenever he does come back.  Seems like a RBBC at best, less than that for Woodhead at worst.  Are any of you other holders rethinking the value of keeping him any longer?

I think you have to hold Woodhead of you picked him up.  It looks like he will be activated and in line to play on Sunday.  I picked him up a week ago and am holding.....at least until we have a sense of what his role will be.

 

[Futz]

With Fournette getting iffy, Ivory might be a decent grab even though Cleveland's rush D is pretty good. The Lions of all people gashed them last week though. 

 

[Isotopes]

Jamaal Williams is an intriguing pick, considering he should get plenty of carries.  He just seems kind of underwhelming....anyone think he does some damage this week?

 

[robb]

With Fournette getting iffy, Ivory might be a decent grab even though Cleveland's rush D is pretty good. The Lions of all people gashed them last week though. 

Why do you think Ivory is the pick up? Why not Yeldon since he had 39% of the snaps last week? And, the last time Fournette missed a game, I think Yeldon scored more points than Ivory.

Just interested in yours and anyone else's thoughts as we move forward. Thanks folks!!

 

[Futz]

Why do you think Ivory is the pick up? Why not Yeldon since he had 39% of the snaps last week? And, the last time Fournette missed a game, I think Yeldon scored more points than Ivory.

Just interested in yours and anyone else's thoughts as we move forward. Thanks folks!!

Yeldon is their version of the change of pace back and receiver out of the backfield. He is a total JAG and not very good around the goal line. Ivory is the type of runner they like to lean on and would be the clear GL back if Fournette sits IMO.

 

[Futz]

Btw....about as off topic as you can get but....

<<<<<<<<<-------------------------------------My avatar is supposedly on his death bed. That crazy SOB has probably spent a little too much time on this planet anyways. 

 

[SameSongNDance]

Why do you think Ivory is the pick up? Why not Yeldon since he had 39% of the snaps last week? And, the last time Fournette missed a game, I think Yeldon scored more points than Ivory.

Just interested in yours and anyone else's thoughts as we move forward. Thanks folks!!

He didn't. 

When Fournette was inactive in week 7 Ivory played on 56% of the snaps, was utilized 17 times and turned that into a a 17/47/1 line on the ground. He wasn't targeted in the passing game.

In that same week 7 game Yeldon played on 34% of the snaps, was utilized 11 times and turned that into a 9/122/1 on the ground and 2/15/0 in the air.

But the last time Fournette missed a game in week 9, Ivory played on 49% of the snaps, was utilized 24 times and turned that into a 20/70/0 on the ground, 3/34/0 in the air.

In that same week 9 game Yeldon played on 44% of the snaps, was utilized 15 times and turned that into a 11/41/0 line on the ground and 2/11/0 in the air.

It is true that Yeldon likely supplanted Ivory as the 3rd down back, as he played on 37% of the snaps to Ivory's 10 and was utilized 11 times to Ivory's 3 last week. What that says is that when Fournette is active, Yeldon likely holds some PPR value and is more valuable than Ivory. When Fournette is inactive however, they're likely equally as valuable (RB2/flex).

 

[The Frankman]

With Washington possibly down to 3 starting WRs, WR Maurice Harris would gain a large opportunity share. Here is the setup:

Week 10 Offensive Snap % Numbers, Washington WRs

18-J.Doctson WAS WR 69 92%

80-J.Crowder WAS WR 60 80%

13-M.Harris WAS WR 41 55%

11-T.Pryor WAS WR 28 37%

14-R.Grant WAS WR 9 12%

83-B.Quick WAS WR 23 31%

WR Terrelle Pryor is OUT (ankle)

WR Brian Quick is still in the concussion protocol

WR Ryan Grant is currently QUESTIONABLE in the concussion protocol (watch this guy to see if he plays)

TE Jordan Reed is OUT (life)

TE Niles Paul is still in the concussion protocol

Pryor/Grant/Quick make up 60 snaps that may not be around, as of now they have 3 WRs and can't even go 2 TE unless they activate rookie TE Jeremy Sprinkle. You'd think Doctson and is going to see a lot of Marshon Lattimore, leaving Crowder with Vaccaro and Harris on Ken Crawley (no slouch himself). Harris is a big receiver at 6'3/201 and in a shootout you know Cousins will sling it as many times as he needs with no viable running game to speak of. He's as worthy a desperation play as you can get.

 

[flapgreen]

Ty out Sunday so I'm rolling with Williams.  Keeping Coleman and Mckissic on the bench for now. 

 

[Riffraff]

Ty out Sunday so I'm rolling with Williams. 

Tyrell Williams. Got it.

 

[flapgreen]

Lol

 

[The Frankman]

Tyrell Williams. Got it.

Lol

? Obviously he meant Ty Montgomery is out. So with Rivers out of the concussion protocol he's rolling with Mike Williams.

 

[djmich]

? Obviously he meant Ty Montgomery is out. So with Rivers out of the concussion protocol he's rolling with Mike Williams.

Why would anybody roll with Mike Williams, that’s beyond desperation.  I personally would go with Johnson.

 

[flapgreen]