greenmountaingoat
Footballguy
Ppr, pick 2
Pierce at Dal
j cook v NyJ
Homer v Car
Feeling clueless
Pierce at Dal
j cook v NyJ
Homer v Car
Feeling clueless
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Week 14 2022 who should I start thread **OFFICIALLY UNOFFICIAL** (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Chaka
- Start date
greenmountaingoat
Footballguy
Just saw the earlier post. Thinking I agree if no Walker/ Dallas confirmed before 1 it’s homer>Pierce. If homer has more than tony Jones as competition for snaps it’s Pierce. Where’s cook in there tho?
Chaka
Footballguy
I have trouble getting excited about Everett as he will likely be the fifth read behind Keenan, Ekeler, Williams & Palmer. Could be a shoot out but I don't speculate on game script.
Kittle is your biggest upside play by far. I assume you are asking because you have, legitimate, concerns about the implications of Purdy under center. IMO it hurts and I wouldn't be surprised if Kittle stays in to block more as the Niners try to ramp up their running game. All that's total speculation but it's what I'm thinking.
Dulcich is your high volume play. He should see around 8 targets, something I can't say about the other two options. I just wish he wasn't on the worst scoring team in the league. Their high water mark is 23 points. They've scores 11 or less six times and exactly 16 points 4 times. But Dulcich is the volume play.
It's a bitter pill but, IMO your moonshot is your best player. However, IMO the smart play is:
Dulcich>Kittle>Everett
Chaka
Footballguy
Been leaning Mason all week but the Niners just elevated Tevin freaking Coleman, who does not play special teams. Mason does. I think you have to lean Dobbins now. I expect Baltimore will try to run more with Huntley and Ronnie Staley should be back.
Dobbins>Mason
Chaka
Footballguy
IMO this is overthinking, at least a little as Conner is a viable play. But I don't think Mixon is losing significant opportunities to Perine. I just don't see it
Mixon>Conner
Chaka
Footballguy
I'm not convinced yet that Cook's usage isn't entirely dependent on if the Bills are winning and by how much. These were my observations above
Personally I think both Walker & DeeJay won't play. How many guys don't practice all week and suit up on Sunday? HOWEVER this is crunch time, if you can't risk possibly not knowing before the early kickoff window then:
Pierce>Homer>Cook
But if you learn both guys are out before then:
Homer>Pierce>Cook
I'd go DJ Moore. Seattle's D is nothing special, and the Jets could be in a pass heavy situation if Buffalo gets up early.
Being non-PPR, I'd go Singletary. McKinnon has almost no floor in standard scoring.
I'd roll with Gesicki. He's in the best offense, and the Chargers will likely have their attention focused elsewhere.
Zay>Chark>DPJ. I'm with you that Min/Det could be a shootout.
I'd roll with Dulcich. Point chasing against KC. Cards haven't been great against TE's, but Henry is the definition of TD or bust.
I'd go Knight. Not super excited about him, but Slayton has a horrible matchup, and Cook has a very shaky workload.
I'd roll with Davis just off higher shot of a big play/TD. Palmer should see lesser coverage, but he could also see 3-4 targets with Allen/Williams/Ekeler/Everett all potentially ahead of him ion the pecking order.
Chark by a wide margin in my opinion. With both Hopkins and Brown playing, I'm not seeing Dortch being all that involved.
I don't think I could bench Evans for any of those guys. I actually think this is a bit of a bounce back week for Evans. They aren't gonna have any success rushing this week, and I could see TB getting Evans going early just to try to snap him out of his funk. I'm still looking at Evans as a top-25 WR for sure.
I'd sit Perine. I just don't see a ton of upside with Mixon playing. Great bench stash though.
That's a really silly rule. Even without it though, I'd still like Tua. I can see Dallas taking their foot off the gas as early as halftime.
Very close, but I'll say Dulcich. Just way less target competition.
Williams has a much higher ceiling, and probably an equal floor, as long as he doesn't re-injure himself again.
DeVonta Smith is a much safer option than Williams, as he's been a target monster with Goedert out.
I'd go Pacheco, Kirk, and Godwin. I hate to say bench Wilson, but I don't think he has the same floor that Kirk/Godwin have, at least not in this matchup.
I don't think a matchup exists where I'd start Mac Jones over Tom Brady, and that's more about Jones than Brady.Ok, last one:
Brady @ SF
Mac Jones @ AZ
I'd roll the dice with Homer. He's a good pass catcher, and could have something like 10 carries, 5 catches, and 80+ total yards.
I'd go Pierce here, as he's the only hope of keeping up with Dallas, who is weak against the run. Despite the 30+ point blowout, Taylor had over 100 yards against them last week. Pierce isn't Taylor, but his workload could be similar.
I'd stick with Kittle here. Mathup isn't awful, and Purdy might not be that different than Jimmy G. Kittle had success with both Mullens and Beathard before.
Yikes. I guess Mason, as I'm under the impression Dobbins gets eased in, and could even be the RB3 this week.
I'm not sitting an active Mixon. Too much upside.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I’m off the ledge. Gabe Davis & Brady
it is.
rockaction
Footballguy
Full PPR
D.j. Chark (DET) or Jeff Wilson (MIA) or DeMarcus Robinson (BAL)
D.j. Chark (DET) or Jeff Wilson (MIA) or DeMarcus Robinson (BAL)
Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
PPR redraft, all TDs 6. Win and I may get in the playoffs. Lose and I'm definitely out.
QB: Huntley @ PIT or Lawrence @ TEN?
QB: Huntley @ PIT or Lawrence @ TEN?
Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
DET passing O is hot right now. Don't like Wilson's matchup and don't know what to expect from Robinson with Huntley at QB. So I would go with Chark.
titusbramble
Footballguy
Here's a good dumpster fire one, PPR, need 2 RB and a flex, need upside facing team vying for #1 seed:
Fournette @ 49ers (late game, game time decision, bad matchup)
Tony Jones vs Panthers (also late game, Walker game time decision, workload uncertain)
Corey Davis @ Bills
Hilliard vs Jags (maybe gets more touches in relief of Henry than usual given matchup?)
Ty Johnson @ Bills (gamescript may lead to lots of targets?)
Dobbins @ Stealers (only just back from IR, may be eased back in, probable split backfield regardless)
Jameson Williams vs Vikings (what the heck)
Random Houston WR off waivers @ Dallas (because everyone else is injured, may get targets by default)
Fournette @ 49ers (late game, game time decision, bad matchup)
Tony Jones vs Panthers (also late game, Walker game time decision, workload uncertain)
Corey Davis @ Bills
Hilliard vs Jags (maybe gets more touches in relief of Henry than usual given matchup?)
Ty Johnson @ Bills (gamescript may lead to lots of targets?)
Dobbins @ Stealers (only just back from IR, may be eased back in, probable split backfield regardless)
Jameson Williams vs Vikings (what the heck)
Random Houston WR off waivers @ Dallas (because everyone else is injured, may get targets by default)
I think that Fournette will be good to go so i would start him...he's got a good floor. What a mess after that...Dobbins for me i suspect. He's not coming off major surgery or anything and Huntley in at qb
In PPR I like Mixon and Pollard
Your only worry is that the dallas game gets out of hand fast...
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Oof. Either of the 1st two should be a slam dunk. What a weird year.
Evans & Brady just can’t connect this year. Likely OL-related, but regardless of reason it’s tough to recommend him in a must win game.
Deebo is going against a semi-tough TB offense, and has been dinged up. And he has Mr Irrelevant throwing him the ball - which is my biggest concern.
Hard to recommend Gallup over those two studs, but he & Dak are on the same page, Lamb is drawing coverage, and the matchup is tasty.
Gallup > Deebo > Evans
*I take no responsibility for your loss if you listen to my advice.
*I take 100% of the credit for your win if you listen to my advice.
Me I would cross Gallop of your list- same reasoning you gave me- worry Dallas gets up big. I would go Evans myself- SF new QB run first approach and TB has well greatest QB ever even though he older and not at his best but give me Evans all day of these choices.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Mixon & Pollard for me
FairWarning
Footballguy
Wow, all three are good. Miami is bad Vs the TE and chargers probably won’t be able to run. I would take the best qb spot here and go Everett.
FairWarning
Footballguy
I like Chubb and Pollard. Chubb has had big games vs Cinn in the past, and I would worry about Mixon getting eased into action off an injury.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
He’s had 3 weeks to shake the concussion. I would expect him to be fine.
Hard to predict of course, but with Watson starting for the Browns against a tough Cinci pass defense, I don’t like the Browns chances of putting a lot of points on the board.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Totally not true.In perfect 'who do i start fashion' one says no to gallop the other says start gallop...
I recommended for Gallup. Another recommended against Gallup.
I’m not sure who Gallop is.
Totally not true.In perfect 'who do i start fashion' one says no to gallop the other says start gallop...
I recommended for Gallup. Another recommended against Gallup.
I’m not sure who Gallop is.
hahaha...well played. The critical nature of the game and this decision doesn't have me thinking straight
FairWarning
Footballguy
I don’t either, but if the Browns do anything, it’s Chubb. I think they get too cute with him. He had 100 yards the first time they played, and a few multiple TD games vs Cinn in the past. The poster has three great options.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Fournette has been teh suck, but he’s probably your best bet of this motley crew.
After that, uh, yeah. Flip some coins I guess. I actually kinda like Dorsett today if you can get him.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Bozeman Bruiser
Footballguy
If I had Tua on my roster I don't think I could ever bench him.
Some numbers to consider:
1. Week 3, Lions @ Vikings, Cousins had 260/2/0, not bad but not a boom.
2. Stolen from @Moonlight in the Lions thread:
As for Tua:
zamboni
Footballguy
Bumping this from earlier this week no that there’s no guarantee Metcalf will be active or, if he is active, could be limited.
Have to start three of the above and no one else of note is available to pick up in the late games.
Gallup was the odd man out for fear that Dak wouldn’t be passing much.
Roll the dice with Metcalf, Moore and Jeudy, or play Gallup and sit one of Metcalf/Moore/Jeudy?
Total points league so I need to maximize points here and not risk a goose add.
TIA
candian fantasy guy
Footballguy
12 team PPR, start 1
J Williams / Homer / A Cooper
FBG saying Homer .... I am on the fence. Cooper might offer the higher ceiling while also having the lowest floor. Williams seems capped at around 15pts with a pretty low floor. Homer, I feel has a similar ceiling as Williams, his floor seems a little safer around 10pts. What say you?
J Williams / Homer / A Cooper
FBG saying Homer .... I am on the fence. Cooper might offer the higher ceiling while also having the lowest floor. Williams seems capped at around 15pts with a pretty low floor. Homer, I feel has a similar ceiling as Williams, his floor seems a little safer around 10pts. What say you?
jm192
Footballguy
Cooper may be on a pitch count, came in questionable. Feel like Williams safer, very capable of the 2 TD game.
candian fantasy guy
Footballguy
His usage was down quite a bit last week and I just wish he caught a few passes every game. I think I am going Homer.
4 pts per passing TD. Need a QB:
* G. Smith vs CAR -- Has been as consistent as can be. Probably be throwing more if Walker and Dallas both out. CAR pass D actually not too bad. Weather looks a bit iffy, but not too terrible. Probably a solid floor here at minimum with upside if CAR makes a game of it.
or
* J. Goff vs MN -- Matchup can't get any better. DET rolling a bit on offense. Goff seems to produce when the matchup is right. MN D could stiffen up in the redzone like they did last week against NYJ, but the yards should be there. Still have something in the back of my head that I shouldn't trust Goff here.
Been rolling with Geno in J. Fields absence. Stick with Geno? Or get a little cute with Goff?
Thanks
* G. Smith vs CAR -- Has been as consistent as can be. Probably be throwing more if Walker and Dallas both out. CAR pass D actually not too bad. Weather looks a bit iffy, but not too terrible. Probably a solid floor here at minimum with upside if CAR makes a game of it.
or
* J. Goff vs MN -- Matchup can't get any better. DET rolling a bit on offense. Goff seems to produce when the matchup is right. MN D could stiffen up in the redzone like they did last week against NYJ, but the yards should be there. Still have something in the back of my head that I shouldn't trust Goff here.
Been rolling with Geno in J. Fields absence. Stick with Geno? Or get a little cute with Goff?
Thanks
Chaka
Footballguy
I understand the concern about Wilson after last week but, and this is nothing but a gut feeling, I think that was an aberration and at worst he's in a 50-50 timeshare with Mostert. He just looked too good previously for me to believe he will be phased out after facing, by far the toughest run defense in the league.
Chark is interesting. I like anyone on such a high powered offense and I think he is a reasonable dart throw with a little TD upside. But he may max out at 6 targets (not bad) and that doesn't account for the possibility of Jameson Williams. I like most Lions this week but I would prefer it if their names were Amon-Ra, D'Andre, Jamaal or Goff.
I'm not excited about Robinson at all. He has seen plenty of targets in two of the last three games and since you're in a full PPR league he might have some value from a last man standing perspective. I just wouldn't expect much more than 6-70 as a ceiling (and that feels a touch generous) with maybe 15% chance of a TD...maybe.
For me I'm rolling the dice on:
Wilson>Chark>Robinson
Chaka
Footballguy
We lost power yesterday around 4:00pm and it's still out. But that's why God invented coffee shops with free wifi!!!
@Hot Sauce Guy how is the weather in the Bay Area. It's about 50 degrees, cloudy and calm with no breeze in Monterey (80 miles south of Levi's) and the forecast I see is still 52, light rain and 8 mph winds.
@Hot Sauce Guy how is the weather in the Bay Area. It's about 50 degrees, cloudy and calm with no breeze in Monterey (80 miles south of Levi's) and the forecast I see is still 52, light rain and 8 mph winds.
Chaka
Footballguy
Ugh...I hate this one. I have trouble because of Lawrence's toe injury but he's a gamer and Tennessee has only really shut down Davis Mills and Matt Ryan. Even Russell Wilson put up 10 points against them in my league (which falls about exactly average).
Huntley is intriguing because he can run a little but, make no mistake, he's not Lamar Jackson. The Steelers defense isn't much better against the pass than the Titans, but Huntley does feel like an unknown and I worry that makes us think he has more upside than a guy like Lawrence. I am not sure that is true.
Very tough call IMO, a real coin toss. Your situation really depends on the rest of the roster and if you think you need the moonshot or not.
Total guess here:
Huntley>Lawrence
I'd go Pierce, he's the only one who's workload is truly known. I can see Homer having upside, but its possible Walker being out just leads to more Geno.
I'd roll with Chark in what should be a shootout. Wilson could be a better option, but he's a lot harder to trust after taking a backseat to Mostert last week.
With no advantage for rushing TDs, I think Lawrence>Huntley.
I'd certainly want Fournette in there, and I'd be very willing to wait for him (pivot to Jones if he's out) I'd take Dobbins as my other RB, I am expecting he'll be eased in, but maybe he'll get the hot hand. Corey Davis would be my flex choice. Garrett Wilson has gotten all the hype (warranted) but Davis has also been a lot more involved since White took over.
I'd go Deebo. Gallup is TD or bust, and Evans has become that, though I do think he'll be more involved this week. Deebo is still the best player in the bunch, and I'm not sure going to Purdy hurts him as much as the other pass catchers in SF as so many of his touches are manufactured.
I hate to say it, because I love the guy, but I sit Pollard. I don't think you should ever sit Chubb, and I think Mixon has a great matchup, and won't lose as much to Perine as Pollard will to Zeke.
Tua for sure. I think he's a better player and has a better matchup. Cousins is quietly having his worst year as a Viking.
Stevenson>Conner>Zeke>Pacheco>Williams
While Homer could very well have the highest ceiling, I don't trust him at all, and wouldn't even think about him over the other two, who have been solid all year. I lean ever so slightly toward Williams, as I do wonder if the Browns get extra run heavy to try to ease Watson in after last week's debacle. I also think Williams is probably a lock for 1 TD, thiough I agree his ceiling isn't the highest.
I like Geno by a decent margin. Better player, better weapons, and while Goff may have a better matchup, it could easily be Detroit's running game being the focus, that is unlikely to be the case in Seattle.
Sam Quentin
Footballguy
Total cluster….
Aiyuk, Slayton, D Knight, j Cook, Jeff Wilson
Pick an Rb and a flex
Leaning Wilson and Aiyuk, but rookie qb could be a downer
Aiyuk, Slayton, D Knight, j Cook, Jeff Wilson
Pick an Rb and a flex
Leaning Wilson and Aiyuk, but rookie qb could be a downer
Chaka
Footballguy
When you led with Fournette I thought "This isn't going to be a dumpster fire", could not have been more wrong. I will look at each guy but I don't expect to gain much clarity.
I hate starting any RB against the Niners but your options are simply bad. Fournette is expected to play and you also don't have much better options.
We simply have zero data on Jones, Hilliard, Johnson and probably Williams I would sincerely use a random number generator to choose between them.
Dobbins carries no injury designation and I think the Ravens are going to be even more committed to the run with Huntley at QB. He is your TD upside guy and probably the best option of the bunch IMO.
Since the other RBs are a total guess I think you need to roll with the best talent and hope for the best and that's Fournette.
For the flex spot I think Davis is your best option, the game could absolutely be ugly but White knows to look for Davis and you can hope that the Jets need to pass a lot to keep up with the Bills. Although I hate predicting game script.
Dobbins>Fournette>Davis>>>Goodspeed
I would go with Slayton over Aiyuk this week. I think he will be targeted a ton and I agree with worrying a bit about a rookie QB.
Your RBs are a coin flip but Wilson has the best matchup by far.
BroncoFreak_2K3
sucker for Orange
Cousins vs. the Super Bowl Bound Lions
Lawrence v. TEN
Lawrence v. TEN
Does losing power make you use a font that looks like pee and is hard to read? I hope your power comes on soon so you can watch the games from the comfort of your home but luckily God also invented sports bars.
Chaka
Footballguy
Tough calls. Any of them could lead the way.
Evans will most certainly see the most targets, but we all know that leads to inconsistent results. I have no information to suggest that the inconsistency is over but he is safe for volume and still has that upside.
Under the premise the Niners want to protect Purdy, Deebo is also a great option. Definite home run threat and should see at least 10 total opportunities and is used near the goal line.
We all think the Cowboys will blow out the Texans and Gallup could eat from that pie. He may still see 6 or so targets and I guess he has TD upside so, if you like the prospect of the blowout maybe roll the dice. It's just difficult to suggest that Gallup is the receiver who will eat when CeeDee and Schultz are also on board.
Definitely close and a gut call, I could see flip-flopping a bunch here:
Deebo>Evans>Gallup
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