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Week 15 who should I start thread **OFFICIAL** (1 Viewer)

Non-ppr.

Amon Ra St. Brown

or

M. Gallup

?

Classic 3rd/4th option on a good offense vs. 1st/2nd option on a terrible offense.

 
Some will say I wish i had your problem, but my problem lies with My WR crew. Terrible due to INJ. So I need as many points as possible from my RB crew.

Need 3 of these guys

Mixon
A Jones
Connor

Robinson - Should Robinson replace one of the above
 

 
Guillotine ppr playoffs. Playing for most points in last 3 weeks against 3 other top tier teams. Need to score around 150 plus so going for ceiling.

Rb kamara vs tb 
rb ?
wr kupp
wr Jefferson 
flex lamb vs nyg 
flex ?

need to pick two:

mixon vs broncos which is a tough matchup and he didn’t score a td last game and averaging 3.2 ypg last two games… leaning towards sitting him but worried I’m being cute.

Conner vs Detroit - without injury I would have rolled with Conner no brainer. With injury not sure how much volume he gets with Edmonds back… still thinking him over mixon at this point due to probability of td.

Robinson vs Houston - I think he has most upside. If I can rely on new head coach saying he’s the guy and they feed him volume I don’t see how he doesn’t have a huge game against team that allowed penny a huge day.
I'm having a heck of a time picking Robinson vs. Mixon (see mine). 

I would go Robinson/Mixon because they're guaranteed to be their teams' starters. That's the only reason. 

 
Guillotine ppr playoffs. Playing for most points in last 3 weeks against 3 other top tier teams. Need to score around 150 plus so going for ceiling.

Rb kamara vs tb 
rb ?
wr kupp
wr Jefferson 
flex lamb vs nyg 
flex ?

need to pick two:

mixon vs broncos which is a tough matchup and he didn’t score a td last game and averaging 3.2 ypg last two games… leaning towards sitting him but worried I’m being cute.

Conner vs Detroit - without injury I would have rolled with Conner no brainer. With injury not sure how much volume he gets with Edmonds back… still thinking him over mixon at this point due to probability of td.

Robinson vs Houston - I think he has most upside. If I can rely on new head coach saying he’s the guy and they feed him volume I don’t see how he doesn’t have a huge game against team that allowed penny a huge day.
Mixon & Connor 

 
Non-ppr.

Amon Ra St. Brown

or

M. Gallup

?

Classic 3rd/4th option on a good offense vs. 1st/2nd option on a terrible offense.
ARSB

I have both & going with ARSB in PPR.  Head of a lion > tail of a cowboy. 
 

ETA: with non-PPR it’s a coin flip. Gallup could get a TD. ARSB less likely. 

 
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Non-ppr.

Amon Ra St. Brown

or

M. Gallup

?

Classic 3rd/4th option on a good offense vs. 1st/2nd option on a terrible offense.
Gallup. You want to look at volume. Dak topped 39 passes in 4 straight games and this is a passing team now. Giants allowed multiple tds in 3 out of last 4 games is what dak averages in 3 out of 4 past meetings? Good matchup for the cowboy wrs. Roll with Gallup.

 
Okay, full PPR: 

For One RB and then Two of RB/WR/TE

Looking at Joe Mixon, Najee Harris, James Robinson, and Dalvin Cook for three spots. 

I've got it narrowed down, I think, to Mixon and Robinson for the final spot. The only reason I don't go Mixon is because Robinson is facing a dream match-up with Houston while Mixon gets a rougher Denver assignment. 

Harris has the most difficult assignment of all, but he's a true workhorse, so I'm leaning him. 

Also, Cook is Monday night. I'm pausing because of COVID and whether it will affect him. Should I just play the three playing Sunday morning and afternoon? 

It seems like a no-brainer, but when you add in all the factors, it becomes a little trickier. 

What say you all? 

For WR: 

Looking at Aiyuk, Cooks, Mooney, and DeVante Parker for the final spot. 

Leaning Cooks right now. 

Could also start any of these guys over any of the RBs, too. Only need to start one RB. 

Hoo boy. 

eta* It's now Robinson in the final spot. And I've got Cooks in at WR. Cook no longer worries me about Monday and injury. He's locked in. Harris vs. Mixon is now my debate.
did anyone ever answer this? I’m leaning with you with Robinson over mixon…. Mixon gets volume no matter what which is great. He can get multiple tds but it’s down to luck and down and distance situations when in red zone. 
 

if you believe Robinson has starter talent which I do, and that he gets volume, which I am starting to believe, then you have to go with matchup right?

 
did anyone ever answer this? I’m leaning with you with Robinson over mixon…. Mixon gets volume no matter what which is great. He can get multiple tds but it’s down to luck and down and distance situations when in red zone. 
 

if you believe Robinson has starter talent which I do, and that he gets volume, which I am starting to believe, then you have to go with matchup right?
No, they didn't, so thank you, tigerz. Yeah, I've got Robinson in over Mixon right now. I just like the matchup a whole lot better. 

 
Note that my opponent has Rodgers 

Gabe Davis v CAR or Allan Lazard?

Javonta Williams v CIN or AJ Dillon?

Ravens are pass D liability....was leaning AJ and Lazard but am I wise to do that given I'm playing Rodgers?

Williams has a slight knee issue, possibly aggravates and rests while Gordon takes the load or Gabriel Davis is part of a 2nd half coast while up 30.....

Much appreciated
I don't put too much stock into who my opponent is starting. I am sure there is an analysis somewhere out there possibly somewhere accessible in the FBGs labyrinthian menu system, probably somewhere behind the Ark of the Covenant.  However I have not read anything to convince me that it should move the needle in one direction or the other.

I do however put some weight into the opposing NFL teams my players are facing and Lazard v Davis couldn't have more different opponents.

Davis is facing the #1 passing defense and Lazard is facing the #31 passing defense.  Is that enough to move the needle to Lazard? I think...maybe?  Lazard is getting about 0.5 targets more per game since week 9, but E.Sanders is out so...? They both have two TDs but Lazard has done it in two fewer games played.  

The question is does E.Sanders being out outweigh facing the #31 pass defense?  And how does Tyler Huntley starting in Baltimore impact anything?  I have no earthly idea.

Sorry, I tried to work towards something solid but there is no way to distinguish these two with any clarity.  100% gut call.  Mine just said

Davis>Lazard  what does yours say?

I like Javonte in this situation simply because of the matchup.  That Baltimore run defense is good and, while they both have almost identical opportunities since week 9, Javonte has been slightly more productive with his.  Home matchup against a lesser run d.

Javonte>Dillon

 
If you need upside - Robinson.  If you're favored - Mixon.
Thanks, jabarony. I'm about even because Mahomes dropped forty on my team on Thursday, and the projections now have me about even, or a little ahead. So...still not sure. 

Would you sit Najee for one of those two? 

 
Chaka said:
I don't put too much stock into who my opponent is starting. I am sure there is an analysis somewhere out there possibly somewhere accessible in the FBGs labyrinthian menu system, probably somewhere behind the Ark of the Covenant.  However I have not read anything to convince me that it should move the needle in one direction or the other.

I do however put some weight into the opposing NFL teams my players are facing and Lazard v Davis couldn't have more different opponents.

Davis is facing the #1 passing defense and Lazard is facing the #31 passing defense.  Is that enough to move the needle to Lazard? I think...maybe?  Lazard is getting about 0.5 targets more per game since week 9, but E.Sanders is out so...? They both have two TDs but Lazard has done it in two fewer games played.  

The question is does E.Sanders being out outweigh facing the #31 pass defense?  And how does Tyler Huntley starting in Baltimore impact anything?  I have no earthly idea.

Sorry, I tried to work towards something solid but there is no way to distinguish these two with any clarity.  100% gut call.  Mine just said

Davis>Lazard  what does yours say?

I like Javonte in this situation simply because of the matchup.  That Baltimore run defense is good and, while they both have almost identical opportunities since week 9, Javonte has been slightly more productive with his.  Home matchup against a lesser run d.

Javonte>Dillon
appreciate the response. My gut is Lazard and Williams....the CEH and Stevenson start for me has me second guessing....thanks

 
Got to choose between Miami's D at home vs NYJ and Dallas at NYG. In this league, D's can be week winners. Very high scoring. I also have the Raiders if Cleveland's OL and QB don't return.

 
rockaction said:
Okay, full PPR: 

For One RB and then Two of RB/WR/TE

Looking at Joe Mixon, Najee Harris, James Robinson, and Dalvin Cook for three spots. 

I've got it narrowed down, I think, to Mixon and Robinson for the final spot. The only reason I don't go Mixon is because Robinson is facing a dream match-up with Houston while Mixon gets a rougher Denver assignment. 

Harris has the most difficult assignment of all, but he's a true workhorse, so I'm leaning him. 

Also, Cook is Monday night. I'm pausing because of COVID and whether it will affect him. Should I just play the three playing Sunday morning and afternoon? 

It seems like a no-brainer, but when you add in all the factors, it becomes a little trickier. 

What say you all? 

For WR: 

Looking at Aiyuk, Cooks, Mooney, and DeVante Parker for the final spot. 

Leaning Cooks right now. 

Could also start any of these guys over any of the RBs, too. Only need to start one RB. 

Hoo boy. 

eta* It's now Robinson in the final spot. And I've got Cooks in at WR. Cook no longer worries me about Monday and injury. He's locked in. Harris vs. Mixon is now my debate.
Mixon>>Robinson   I get it, I get it, I get it.  New HC, unleash Robinson, terrible opponent.  You want to roll with it, then roll with it, it's not a bad call.

But I am shocked that I have had to sell at least three people on Mixon who has 21+ opportunities/game, 1,200+ yards and 14 TDs. He is the very definition of a workhorse RB, one of the very few in the league.  Everyone thinks that Burrow & the passing game lead the way in Cincinnati but I'm here to tell you Mixon is what makes that offense tick.  

Dalvin>Mixon>Najeh>Robinson

For WR IMO

Parker>Mooney>Aiyuk>Cooks

Cooks gets volume and may have the safest floor but I think all those other guys have reasonable floors too and much better ceilings.  But the margin separating them is very thin, nothing wrong with Cooks.

 
Mixon>>Robinson   I get it, I get it, I get it.  New HC, unleash Robinson, terrible opponent.  You want to roll with it, then roll with it, it's not a bad call.

But I am shocked that I have had to sell at least three people on Mixon who has 21+ opportunities/game, 1,200+ yards and 14 TDs. He is the very definition of a workhorse RB, one of the very few in the league.  Everyone thinks that Burrow & the passing game lead the way in Cincinnati but I'm here to tell you Mixon is what makes that offense tick.  

Dalvin>Mixon>Najeh>Robinson

For WR IMO

Parker>Mooney>Aiyuk>Cooks

Cooks gets volume and may have the safest floor but I think all those other guys have reasonable floors too and much better ceilings.  But the margin separating them is very thin, nothing wrong with Cooks.
Thanks, Chaka. Great reasoning and thoughts as always. Mixon is a crazy workhorse, and IMO, is a better back than Robinson. It's all match-up. Looks like I make my decision at 9:55 AM West Coast Time. 

 
Loipz said:
Stevenson scoring 4.5 in 0.5 PPR has shook me. Thought I had my lineups set.. lol

0.5 ppr

Aaron Jones or AJ Dillon? Against ravens. 
 

really worried about game script and Dillon has out touched Aaron Jones by a huge margin these last couple weeks.

0.5 ppr

Gordon vs CIN 

jeff wilson vs ATL

foreman vs PIT

sony vs SEA

Thanks in advanced and good luck everyone. 
I like Aaron Jones over Dillon. I think the Packers favor him in a similar way to the Broncos favoring Gordon. The split is different lately but I think Jones is a bit more useful in the passing game and my feeling is the Pack likes to get him TDs.

I could make an argument for Gordon, I mean he has been very productive and the Broncos favor him in close game situations by just a shade over Javonte. 

A.Jones>Melvin>Dillon>Wilson

Wilson is in line for the most volume of any of these guys and he plays against the weakest opponent. But there is bigger risk associated with Wilson.

 
The Show said:
Need 1 from these 3. Full PPR

M Brown vs GB

AJ Green vs DET

OBJ vs SEA

My logic tells me Hollywood will be playing in the best Gamescript all game to pile up targets and catches. I think Green and OBJ have the better chance to score however. 
 

Any other thoughts here that might help? 
Brown has Tyler Huntley throwing the ball, I am not sure that's good or bad but it is far less known than Murray & Stafford.  Brown got 8 targets last week, 7 from Huntley so he's definitely part of the game plan but can Huntley exploit Brown's talent? 4-30-0 on seven targets from Huntley suggests maybe not.

I like Green but that Arizona offense is so difficult to predict who is going to get the goal line love, even with Hopkins out of the lineup.

OBJ carries more question marks based upon the last few years but based on the last three games I kind of lean in his direction.  I was going to play him myself this week but pulled him on Thursday because we all thought he was going to be out this week.

OBJ>Green>Brown

This is a very difficult call overall and going with the others isn't a bad move but I like OBJ.

 
Struggling at flex

OBJ vs Sea

Green vs Det

Moore vs Buf

0.5 ppr. 
I like AJG this week, and I see a lot if people are sitting DJ this week (I’m starting him but I could see it, Bills are the stingiest v WRs FFpts this year.) Probably Green & OBJ  

 
PPR

In Lineup:

J. Robinson vs Houston

Tee Higgins @ Denver

Aiyuk vs Atlanta

Two flex spots, pick two:

OBJ  vs Seattle (Tuesday, lots of Rams missing)

Michael Carter @ Miami

D'Onta Foreman @ Pittsburgh

Jeff Wislon vs Atlanta

Jeudy vs Cin

Feeling a little stumped about my flex spots. Can make a case for anyone but Jeudy, other than him having a nice 7 point ppr floor. No explosive games. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Real dilemma this week in PPR. 

D.J. Moore strained his hammy last weekend. It looked legit. He pulled up gimpy, came back out, gimped around a lot and made like 1 more catch but was largely a decoy on the perimeter. He’d run 2 steps & stop while the ball went somewhere else.

His QBs are nothing short of brutal, and he’s facing the #1 pass defense of what should be a hungry  Bills team on.a 30 degree day. Cold weather & bad hammies go together like peanut butter & pizza. 

My other option is Gabriel Davis, who should get a larger workload with Sanders out. CAR’s pass defense is also near the top of the league statistically, but they feel like a bit of a paper Tiger. 

As of right now I have Higgins, Davis, Aman-Ra at WR & Mooney at O-Flex. ARob out with COVID & Minny was 29th against the pass before cutting one of their starting CBs yesterday so I feel like he has to be in my lineup.

Due to a mid-week scoring change, I am now in a “win today or go home” situation.

I’m also the current points leader by 32, which is good for 10% of the rather sizable kitty, so points are important for me. I’d rather get some than none if DJM has an in-game setback. 

Am I nuts to bench DJM for Davis? 

/novel
It's week 15 guy, everyone has a real dilemma.

I don't think you're nuts necessarily but it is definitely a gamble. Brutal QBs or not, potential injury or not Moore has not received fewer than 7 targets in a game all year.  In his last three games with rotating QBs he has 27 targets for 15-237-1.  

Davis got eight targets last week in a very close game at Tampa Bay, he hasn't had more than five targets in any other game this season. Is the loss of Sanders and the likelihood of a fairly easy win for Buffalo going to cover the difference of opportunity between the two?

Personally I think not.  Davis could very well get a score (he has two in the last two games) and outproduce DJ but I don't think that possibility, or outcome, would make it the best decision.

DJ>Davis

 
Full PPR

Freiermuth vs Ten or should I pick up Njoku Vs LVR (I think Waller has no chance of playing even though the game moved)

Right now I have Chase Edmonds Vs Det at flex over Marquise Brown Vs GB and Chase Claypool Vs Ten. 

 
The Dude said:
Any insight into how Edmonds and Connor plays out today?  Edmonds practiced most the week and appears ready to go while Connor questionable but practiced I think one day. 

Thoughts on starting Edmonds?
Edmonds is a solid play in PPR, not so much in standard scoring formats IMO. He should be in line for multiple receptions and definitely could break one off against this Lions team.

We should all be concerned about Conner's injury but, if he plays, I don't see any way to bench the most sure fire goal line rush TD guy in the league at this point.  Arizona should have plenty of opportunity to score so if Conner is playing I like him over Edmonds in standard and probably PPR too.

Conner>Edmonds

 
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Dacomish said:
Given that L-Jax is most likely going to be out, I have to decide between:

T.Huntley or T. Lawrence

Huntley was serviceable last few times he got extended play and Lawrence has just been awful, maybe the HC change could re-invigorate Lawrence, but its still Bevel calling the plays, so I'm not so sure. 

I'm leaning Huntley (And if L-Jax is active I will go with him). 
Huntley>Lawrence

Mobility trumps here and Huntley was at least accurate, if not very aggressive as a passer.  I won't trust Jacksonville, even after a coaching change motivation bump and facing a terrible opponent, until I see them do something on the field first.

 
Krilons Resa said:
I'm having trouble deciding who to start at RB in PPR.  Got hosed by starting Stevenson last ngiht.

D'Onta Foreman v. PIT

AJ Dillon v. BAL
Tough call indeed.

I think Dillon.  Tough matchup but Pittsburgh with their back against the wall at home is a tough matchup too IMO.  Dillon has a better offense, better defense (for the most part) and should have a better game script overall with Huntley starting in Baltimore.

Dillon>Foreman

 
rockaction said:
Can't really tell what you're asking besides the Dillon question. What are the other four guys? How many do you need out of them? 

I think Dillon and Jones is a coin flip. I'll say this: I'd go with Jones if I had skin in the game. 
Woops I worded it poorly. It’s 2 different leagues. 

 
Half PPR league.  2 Rb's, 2 WR and a Flex.  Need 5 of Robinson, Zeke, Sony, Wilson, Adams, Cooks and Parker.  I'm thinking Robinson, Zeke, Adams, Cooks and Parker.  Getting stuck on Sony, especially with the Tue game. 

Good luck everyone!

 
Scooby1974 said:
Start Michael Carter today or wait and start one of Henderson/Sony/Lockett/Penny on Tuesday?
You have my permission to do so.

I think I like Carter enough to roll with him but I am not sure I would do so over Henderson or Lockett...or Penny even.

Henderson should be healthy and in line for his normal workload as the Rams don't seem to sub out backs like, say, the Pack or Denver.  So you should expect 15+ opportunities for Henderson.

I don't know where Lockett is vis-a-vis the Protocol but since you have the option of substituting in Penny if Lockett is out I think I personally roll the dice. Honestly you have multiple opportunities on Tuesday that you should definitely have a full squad to pick from.

I think Penny is in line for as many opportunities as Carter and I like the Seahawks offense more than the Jets. Plus the Miami defense has been balling for real. And if Henderson is a late scratch, for whatever reason you simply slide in Michel.

Lockett>Henderson>Penny/Carter>Michel

 
Ted Lange as your Bartender said:
Start one non-PPR:

DJ Moore at BUF
McLaurin at PHI
Marvin Jones vs HOU

don't love any of them but have to start one.  Not totally sure McLaurin has cleared protocols so I think he’s out of the mix.  I’m a little intrigued by the possible post-Urban bump in Jacksonville, but it feels more like hope than anything.
DJ>Jones>McLaurin

I get the temptation with Jacksonville but DJ gets volume (no fewer than 7 targets in a game all season) and has produced with well below average QB play all year.

 
Ridgeback said:
PPR

Freeman vs Jags

or

Gaskin vs Jets

I'm playing against the Taylor owner, of course.
Gaskin>>>Freeman  The Texans have quit and Gaskin can catch.

 
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If you re-post and clean up the question's ambiguity, I'll provide thoughts... 
seems Aaron Jones is the play over Dillon in one league so I just need one from these 4 in my second league  

0.5 ppr

Gordon vs CIN 

jeff wilson vs ATL

foreman vs PIT

sony vs SEA

 
The Captain said:
Would you start Edmonds over Conner? Non-PPR 
I wouldn't.  I bench Conner only if he's out.  We have been waiting for the wheels to fall off for 14 weeks. Eventually we will be right but only under the Broken Clock principle.

Conner>Edmonds

 
seems Aaron Jones is the play over Dillon in one league so I just need one from these 4 in my second league  

0.5 ppr

Gordon vs CIN 

jeff wilson vs ATL

foreman vs PIT

sony vs SEA
First glance, gut feeling says Gordon>Foreman>Wilson>Michel

I say that because Gordon is guaranteed about at least twelve-fourteen carries in high-leverage situations. Williams is banged up, which means Gordon might get more run than usual. Foreman, McNichols, and Hilliard will all split carries. Wilson has a 3.2 YPC, Deebo is healthy to take the high-leverage carries, and Sony will likely be behind Henderson. 

 
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Personally I think not.  Davis could very well get a score (he has two in the last two games) and outproduce DJ but I don't think that possibility, or outcome, would make it the best decision.

DJ>Davis
No, but facing Buffalo D in he cold weather with an injury that I watched him sustain - he looked pretty gimpy out there.

And his QBs are brutal. 

Imma go with my gut here. If it gets me bounced, it is what it is. 

 
seems Aaron Jones is the play over Dillon in one league so I just need one from these 4 in my second league  

0.5 ppr

Gordon vs CIN 

jeff wilson vs ATL

foreman vs PIT

sony vs SEA
FBG rankings has Foreman over Gordon by a point. Just another reference point. Ranked 22 and 26. They have Michel 29 and Wilson 32. 

 
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I almost never do these crazy last minute adjustments, but is it feasible to start St Brown in .5 ppr over DJ Moore as underdog? Pittmans trash game has me thinking I need some upside surprises 

 
IHEARTFF said:
couple random ones which might help other people too. Current starters bold. 

2 of these 3 in PPR. Jeff Wilson vs Atl/Miles Sanders vs Was/Mike Davis at SF

.5 ppr Freiermuth vs Ten or Ertz at Det

.5 ppr Bateman vs GB or Gabe Davis vs Car
I like Davis but he's just as likely to get 10 or fewer opportunities, particularly in a tough game, as he is to get 15+

Wilson is in line for volume at home against a lesser opponent.  

I like Sanders but would like him more if Minshew were starting.  With two extra days to heal I worry that Hurts will be a little stronger against a potentially depleted WFT and return to his TD vulturing ways.

Wilson>Sanders>Davis

Freirmuth>Ertz I love Ertz but he's dinged a little and Freirmuth has been money inside the red zone.

I guess I agree, maybe a little with Bateman although I think he is allergic to the end zone and he has a lesser QB (I think). But he could catch enough passes to make him viable in 0.5 PPR. The real problem is figuring out whether or not 8 targets last week was an aberration and we have no way of knowing.

G.Davis>Bateman but, like my Lazard v Davis call above it is really based on nothing but my gut, so go with yours here

 

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