***Week 7 Picks*** (1 Viewer)

[Jeff Pasquino]

First of all, take these all with a grain of salt.

Secondly, these are for educational purposes only.

Third - I think it is a major mistake to try and predict all games.

My ranking system is based on "Stars", which gauges how strongly I feel about each pick.



Week 7 - Getting a better feel for the league now. I handicapped all of the games this week before looking at any Vegas Lines - always a good idea - and I saw some definite differences of opinion. That tells me that it is time to pick a few more games. So...... Let's talk.

Here we go:



*ONE STAR GAMES*

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (OVER 37.5) - (1 star)

This week I pegged this game at around 40, so I was happy to see the number under that. Now it's not a huge difference, but both of these teams have been scoring much better as of late. Matt Forte will struggle on the ground vs. the Vikings, but Kyle Orton is doing much better with the passing game, including Forte. The Vikings are also putting up points with Frerotte and Berrian hooking up deep, and I expect ADP to get more of the yards that he has been missing. Both kickers are also pretty good and I don't see much of a weather problem, so take the over here and expect 20+ a side.



Buffalo Bills (+1) vs. San Diego Chargers - (1 star)

How many ways can you like this game? Buffalo had two weeks to prep for this game. The Chargers travel cross-country and have to play an early game. San Diego is missing (likely) Chris Chambers. LT2 is not 100%. The Bills defense is good and arguably better than the Chargers at this point. Buffalo is likely to have their #1 QB in Edwards, and #2 isn't so bad either. The temperature could be colder (mid-50s) but I still will take the Bills in this one.

New York Jets at Oakland Raiders (UNDER 41.5) - (1 star)

The Jets are good, but the Raiders aren't. I don't quite see how Oakland is going to score many points against a pretty good defense. I had this game pegged at about a 37 or 38 point total, and I see it is comfortably over 40. Why? JaMarcus is playing terrible and Ashley Lelie should have stayed retired. Ronald Curry can't catch a cold. Plus their kicker has about the same accuracy as the quarterback. Congrats on your victory, Jets.

New York Jets (-3) at Oakland Raiders - (1 star)

See above.

San Francisco 49ers (+10) at New York Giants - (1 star)

I get it - the world thinks that the Giants were embarrassed on national TV on Monday Night Football and will now come out and beat up on San Francisco. Good luck with that, as Cleveland showed that the Giants secondary has holes, as does the LB corps with some scrapes this week. Look for Mike Martz to attack the Giants with both Frank Gore and JT O'Sullivan throwing to the re-discovered Vernon Davis and the rest of the 49er WRs to score some points. I expect the Giants to win, but it will be closer and higher scoring than many would expect.

Denver Broncos (+3.5) at New England Patriots - (1 star)

The Patriots are overrated. The Broncos should be the favorite in this game by a point or two yet they are not. Prime time effect for Belichick? Maybe, but he's not taking the field, Matt Cassel is. The weakness for Denver is their run defense, but they're tackling much better of late as both DJ Williams and Nate Webster rack up tackles. Denver will put up more points than the Patriots can in this game. I expect that Denver can get 27 or 31, but the Patriots may not hit 17.

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (UNDER 48) - (1 star)

See above.



**TWO STAR GAMES**

Detroit Lions at Houston Texans (UNDER 47) - (2 stars)

Um, what? I had this game tagged at 39, so I don't get this one. At all. Are we seriously expecting the Lions to have an offensive outburst? The line on the game is between 8 and 10 (it's all over the place), but let's pick 9. That means Vegas expects Detroit to get 17 or 20? Really? Have you seen the Lions? Have you seen Dan "Every which way but forward" Orlovsky? Didn't they just trade away a starting WR? Look for Houston to triple cover Calvin and take their chances with Kevin Smith and Rudi Johnson. If the Lions get 14 I'll be surprised, which means all you need is for the Texans to stay under 31 (and Sage Rosenfels to stand on the sideline all game).

Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs (-8) - (2 stars)

Another head-scratcher. The Titans are undefeated and rolling this year. The Chiefs are coming off of the bye, and teams coming off the bye this year are 8-4 (as I mentioned in this week's Hot Reads column), and even stronger at 7-3 because two teams squared off against each other after a bye (Seattle / Giants). Teams do better with two weeks to prep and that does lead to some upsets, but the Titans also had a week to rest. Kansas City is a mess with Tony Gonzalez wanting out (but can't leave) and now LJ out for a week. Good luck KC - this should be ugly in a hurry. Titans by about 14 or more, something like 27-10.

Denver Broncos (+10.5) and (UNDER 55) - (2 stars)

Seven point teaser looks very sweet here.

***THREE STAR GAMES***



None. No big lock yet, but some nicer action for sure.



Good luck this week, and remember that if you are tempting fate and actually wagering on these games to bet with your head and not over it.

Enjoy the games.

 

[NorrisB]

you know I was thinking the same thing on that jets game

 

[pacman_fl]

Good luck Jeff.

Fortunately (or unfortunately depending on how you fare) I am already onboard with a few of these selections. I took Tennessee -7 early in the week but it appears KC is the sexy pick of many bettors I have read. I agree on the Jets - don't generally like favorites traveling cross country but going West is not generally as worrisome as heading east. The last play I took was the over for Minn/Chicago - this is a significant "trend play" though I agreed with the play without the trending. I haven't touched the Bills game though my lean has been in their direction.

 

[bigmiiiiike]

This is one of the easier weeks to bet IMO as there are some very nice games out there.

I feel pretty confident about (using your system, let's say 2 or 3 stars):

Titans -9: you hit the nail on the head in your analysis

Indy -2: The Indy D (or lack there of) scares me, as GB can get out and score some points, but the Indy O is back on a mission. The GB pass D is TERRIBLE, and if Manning can light up the Baltimore D, he'll go bonkers against the GB D. I love the over and Indy in this one.

Tampa Bay -11: The Seahawks were "that bad" WITH Hasselback, and now they have to roll out there with Charlie Frye??? Good luck, against a stout Bucs team that just blew out Carolina. Now they're at home for a night game, hosting a West Coast team who has to travel a long way to play them. The Seahawks were shut down against the GB D, which is terrible. I predict that the Tampa D outscores the Seahawks O in this one.

Denver +3: You nailed it, the "BB effect" moves the line probably 3-5 points from where it should be. What I love about this one is, as you said, Denver's weakness is the run, and NE has no running game. Denver has a pretty good secondary, although they have given up some big numbers, but I just don't think that Cassel lead the team to score enough points to keep up.

Houston -9.5: As you said, Detroit will not be able to keep up in this. We'll see Detroit do their best with the "Megatron Ratio" but it will not be enough to score with the Texans. Shaub is very good, and the Lions are very bad, especially on the road. This one could get real ugly.

One star games, but still pretty solid picks:

NYJ -3: I think we'll see a repeat of last week's NO @ Oakland game. Oakland is as bad as advertised, especially against high flying offenses. Favre will pass all over them just like Brees did last week. NYJ D is vulnerable to the pass, (see Arizona), but JaMarcus Russell doesn't have nearly enough in the tank to lead them in this one. The only way this one doesn't happen is if it's one of those crazy Favre games where he throws two picks that get returned for TDs. I think McFadden COULD have a solid game, but he can't help their secondary.

Buffalo +2: As you said, a home dog coming off a bye that is pretty solid and contending for a division title. Even if SD is back on track, they'll have trouble in this one, as Buffalo is very good, especially at home. Edwards should play. Lynch and Evans will be successful, and the Buffalo D will frustrate Rivers and LT.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

bump

 

[Manster]

i like the Bills, Jets, Niners. the G-men were overrated and exposed a bit last wk. i dont quite understand the Denver love. they have killed me this yr. their defense is soft. in NE i see this as a pretty close game.

i also like MIA, DAL, CLE, TB.

TB is my favorite pick this wk. that defense is gonna be all over Seneca. this game should be a blowout. TB is a very good team, without superstars, still kinda under the radar.