BustedKnuckles
Footballguy
By PFW staff
Sept. 5, 2007
AFC East
Buffalo — Partly due to shoddy O-line play, rookie RB Marshawn Lynch had a dismal preseason. But don’t expect the Bills to abandon the run against the Broncos. Denver has a re-tooled front seven that has had a particularly tough time adjusting to new defensive coordinator Jim Bates’ system. … WR Lee Evans is primed for a big year, but the Broncos’ CB tandem of Dre’ Bly and Champ Bailey will make life difficult for him. … Denver’s defensive ends are far more proficient pass rushers than they are run stuffers, and could force QB J.P. Losman into making the kinds of poor decisions that have plagued his career.
Miami — Cam Cameron loves utilizing his tight ends, but you might want to keep David Martin on the bench against the Redskins. Washington boasts one of the best safety tandems in the league, and Martin could find the going tough down the middle. … Washington notched an NFL-low 19 sacks in 2006, and the pass rush has looked equally anemic in the preseason, meaning QB Trent Green should have adequate time to throw. Miami’s O-line is certainly a beleaguered bunch, but they couldn’t have asked for a better matchup than the Skins. … Washington was 27th against the run a season ago, and with OLB Marcus Washington questionable with a bum shoulder, RB Ronnie Brown should have a solid game as a runner and a receiver — especially for leagues that award points for receptions.
New England — All everyone wants to talk about in New England are the marquee WR additions, but RB Laurence Maroney is poised for a big game against the Jets. The Pats’ O-line is more efficient run-blocking than pass-protecting, and the Jets’ undersized front seven has had its share of problems in the preseason. … The verdict on the daily saga that is Randy Moss’ hamstring status is that Moss should be fine for Sunday. However, because the Patriots have such good depth at the position and the Jets’ secondary is unquestionably their defensive strength, you might want to wait a week to insert Moss into your lineup.
New York Jets — The calf injury that has kept RB Thomas Jones sidelined throughout the majority of the preseason looks to be completely healed, but our Jets sources have indicated that Mangini is leaning toward splitting the Week One carries equally between Jones and Leon Washington. … Recently appointed Jets offensive co-captain Laveranues Coles has the speed to hurt a Patriots secondary searching for cohesion after a whirlwind preseason. Coles caught six balls for 100 yards and a touchdown in the first meeting between the teams last year.
AFC North
Baltimore — Consider starting QB Steve McNair in bigger leagues. McNair attempted 74 passes vs. Cincinnati a season ago, proof the Ravens sought to go after one of the league’s weakest secondaries. The Bengals again appear vulnerable in the back seven, and the defense does not muster a consistent pass rush. … WR Mark Clayton (ankle) will play in Week One and could be a nice play in deeper leagues or leagues that start three wide receivers. So could Derrick Mason, whose best game from a Fantasy perspective last season came at Cincinnati. … The Ravens rushed for 218 yards vs. Cincinnati a season ago, which is good news for those contemplating starting RB Willis McGahee.
Cincinnati — WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh scored in both matchups with the Ravens a season ago and comes highly recommended in Week One. So does WR Chad Johnson, who caught 8-91-0 at home vs. Baltimore last season. Few receivers have fared as well vs. the Ravens’ secondary as Houshmandzadeh and Johnson. … RB Rudi Johnson received only 34 total carries vs. Baltimore in 2006, but he’s a good bet to get plenty of work in the opener, as the Bengals do not have a playmaking, complementary back with Chris Perry on the PUP list and Kenny Irons out for the season.
Cleveland — QB Charlie Frye will get the start vs. Pittsburgh, but he may only have the job for the short term. Leave him on the bench — or on the waiver wire — unless he proves he’s significantly improved after throwing only 10 TD passes in 2006. His play in the preseason didn’t turn a lot of heads. … WR Braylon Edwards is a sleeper perhaps worth considering in Week One. Edwards caught 11-223-1 vs. Pittsburgh a season ago. The emotional Edwards matches up well with a Steelers secondary that lacks a shutdown cornerback. … Deciding whether to start RB Jamal Lewis vs. Pittsburgh? Consider this: Lewis racked up 143 yards and two touchdowns in two starts vs. Pittsburgh last season. However, while the Browns racked up 99 rushing yards vs. the Steelers in the first matchup between the clubs a season ago, the Steelers responded by holding Cleveland to 18 yards in the rematch.
Pittsburgh — RB Willie Parker rolled up 223 yards and a touchdown on 32 carries in his last start vs. Cleveland. The Browns have long struggled with the Steelers’ physical offense, so make sure Parker is in your Week One lineup. Also, make sure to work WR Santonio Holmes into the lineup. Holmes became a bigger part of the offense as his rookie season progressed. … Fast fact: WR Hines Ward didn’t catch a TD pass after Week 10 in 2006. … QB Ben Roethlisberger threw at least one TD pass in 11 of his final 12 starts last season. Offensive coordinator Bruce Arians will give him more freedom this season, a development that bears watching and one that could help him throw 20 TD passes for the first time.
AFC South
Houston — No team scored more points in the preseason than Houston, and it may be time for Fantasy owners to start keeping an eye on Texans skill-position players other than WR Andre Johnson. QB Matt Schaub appears at home in Gary Kubiak’s offense, and rookie WR Jacoby Jones was a smash hit in the preseason. Kevin Walter, not Jones, will start Week One, but Jones is the better fantasy football prospect. … RB Ahman Green might merit a start against a Chiefs defense that will be without DE Jared Allen (suspension). So could TE Owen Daniels, who has a good matchup against the Chiefs’ linebackers and secondary.
Tennessee — QB Vince Young is far from a must-start in Week One. Young struggled vs. the Jaguars last season, completing only 23-of-51 passes. What’s more, the Jags held Young to 18 yards rushing. Expect Jacksonville to try and make Young win the game with his arm, a strategy that figures to help fantasy football owners starting TE Bo Scaife, who’s one of Young’s favorite targets. Other than Scaife, WR Eric Moulds is the only other Titans pass catcher who merits consideration in Week One. … RB LenDale White figures to start in Week One, but Chris Brown also figures to get work, and both backs have their work cut out for them against a tough Jacksonville run defense.
Indianapolis — QB Peyton Manning, WR Marvin Harrison and WR Reggie Wayne are must-start fantasy players every week, but especially in their opener against the Saints. New Orleans’ defense, particularly the secondary, remains the team’s weakness. … RB Joseph Addai will no longer be sharing carries with Dominic Rhodes, which means Addai now is a must-start fantasy player every week. With Harrison and Wayne spreading out the Saints’ defense, the middle of the field should open up for Addai, who will get a heavy workload with an inexperienced crop of backups in the backfield. … Similarly, with all of the attention being paid to Harrison and Wayne, TE Dallas Clark could have a big game vs. New Orleans’ linebackers, who are solid tacklers but are not strong in coverage.
Jacksonville — QB David Garrard is a solid option in larger leagues vs. the Titans this week. In two starts vs. the Titans last season, Garrard threw for four TD passes and 410 yards. But he did throw three interceptions. Garrard has added value because he is a threat to run. … The Jaguars’ WR corps remains a mess. If you must play a Jacksonville receiver, go with Matt Jones. After a slow start last season with Byron Leftwich under center, Jones posted two 100-yard receiving games and all four of his TD catches in the final 10 games with Garrard as the starter. … Both Jacksonville running backs, Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew, are solid options this week against a Titans defense that ranked 30th stopping the run last season. Taylor remains the starter and will get the bulk of the work between the 20s. But new offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter also plans to find plenty of touches for Jones-Drew, who is a threat to score every time he touches the ball. … FB Greg Jones is expected to handle many of the short-yardage and goal-line carries. … Koetter plans to use the TE position more this season, which could make Marcedes Lewis a decent starting option this season.
AFC West
Denver — There shouldn’t be any concerns over whether RB Travis Henry is ready to go for the season opener. The sprained knee he suffered in the preseason was considered mild, and he is expected to be 100 percent against the Bills, who allowed at least 183 yards on the ground on five occasions last season, when they ranked 28th vs. the run. Buffalo’s defense also lost starting LBs London Fletcher and Takeo Spikes in the offseason and lack bulk on the interior. … WRs Javon Walker and Brandon Marshall, as well as QB Jay Cutler, should see some success against a revamped CB lot that lost Nate Clements in free agency and hasn’t really stood out. … The Broncos’ defense has been slow to catch on to the new system installed by defensive coordinator Jim Bates, but it’s still a good start this week against the Bills’ offense.
Kansas City — We’re not suggesting keeping him out of your starting lineup, but you should know that Chiefs head coach Herman Edwards suggested earlier this week that we shouldn’t be expecting a heavy workload from star RB Larry Johnson, who is still working his way into playing shape following a 25-day holdout. Against the Texans, backup Michael Bennett could see a fair amount of work, but it shouldn’t be long before Johnson’s leash is extended. … The Chiefs brought in six kickers this week for tryouts, as rookie Justin Medlock continues to struggle.
Oakland — The Raiders continue to play coy in regard to who will be starting at quarterback vs. Detroit on Sunday, but we’ve been hearing for weeks now that it would be a real surprise if it’s not Daunte Culpepper, who brings a big-play element to Lane Kiffin’s offense that Josh McCown doesn’t provide. Culpepper’s pocket awareness and the Raiders’ blocking need to improve, however, before you should consider adding Culpepper to your fantasy roster, let alone finding a spot for him in your lineup. … Kiffin’s scheme involves an increased emphasis of throwing to the backs and tight ends, which should help RB LaMont Jordan’s stock rise. Jordan caught 70 passes in 14 games in 2005 and was running hard at the end of the preseason. He won’t have much competition with Dominic Rhodes suspended the first four games. … It’s also worth keeping tabs on rookie TE Zach Miller, who earned a starting role in the preseason and could present some mismatch problems. Culpepper had a good rapport with his tight ends in Minnesota.
San Diego — With Eric Parker out for at least the first month of the season, it’ll be a combination of rookie Craig Davis and Malcom Floyd at the WR position opposite Vincent Jackson. Davis has looked smooth thus far and adds a much-needed speed element to the WR corps. Floyd’s size and athleticism make him a good red-zone threat, and three of his 15 receptions last season went for six points. … The Chargers’ defense, especially the pass rush, sparked by OLBs Shawne Merriman and Shaun Phillips, could have a productive day against Bears QB Rex Grossman, who commits turnovers in bunches and had trouble holding on to the football in the preseason.
NFC East
Dallas — WR Terrell Owens loves to play against the Giants. Owens has 35 receptions for 492 yards with five TDs in six career games against them. Twenty-four of those catches have gone for first downs. Last season, Owens had 14 receptions for 182 yards with one TD vs. the Giants. … Quick: Name the team that handled Tony Romo the best last season. Answer: The Giants. In two games against them — one, we should note, was a relief performance, plus his first true NFL action — Romo had flashes of brilliance but struggled overall, going 34-of-59 for 484 yards (not bad for six quarters of action) but only two TD passes and five interceptions (quite bad for six quarters). Though the Giants’ secondary has its share of questions, you might want to think about other QB possibilities.
N.Y. Giants — The Giants ran the ball well in the preseason, gaining 5.1 yards a clip, and the Cowboys have struggled to stop Tiki Barber in recent years. Brandon Jacobs is a different animal, but he too could have a nice game. Though he was used sparingly against the Cowboys last season, he gained 69 yards and a touchdown on 15 rushes and had two receptions for 52 yards in the second matchup. Jacobs rates as a B-plus start against a defense that has looked good in the preseason but also hasn’t shown everything and might need a game or two to get ironed out. One more fun statistic: Forty-seven of Jacobs’ 96 carries last season went to the right, and seven of his nine TDs were to that side. Dallas either will be starting Greg Ellis, who has missed the entire preseason with injury, or rookie Anthony Spencer, who’s still making the transition to linebacker from defensive end, on the strong side, which most often will be to the offense’s right. Also, seven of Jacobs’ 11 receptions last season went to the right.
Philadelphia — Andy Reid typically has had offensive success against his old Packers team, so there’s no reason to sit any of the Big Three: QB Donovan McNabb, RB Brian Westbrook or WR Reggie Brown, who is ready to join the big boys despite a quiet preseason. The questions come when you talk about TE L.J. Smith, who likely will play but could be limited; he’s probably a guy you want to sit on Sunday. The other interesting name is WR Kevin Curtis, who could be a frequent target. The strength of the Packers’ secondary is the cornerbacks, but Curtis is quick and sure enough to work well underneath vs. zones and catch 6-8 passes.
Washington— After last season’s 31st-ranked effort, the Redskins' defense went from fantasy darlings to duds in short order. They are expected to get back to their top-10 marks of previous seasons with increased speed and depth, especially in the secondary, on that side of the ball. And Week One provides a great opportunity for the “D” to flex its muscle. Trent Green and the Dolphins’ offense are a serious work in progress, with question marks at perhaps every spot but receiver. And given that the Redskins might have, man for man, the best secondary in the NFL, expect the defense to have very good success in their first attempt to rehabilitate its value.
NFC North
Chicago — We’re hearing it’s real unlikely Bears rookie TE Greg Olsen, who sprained his left knee in the preseason finale, will be able to play this Sunday vs. the Chargers. With Olsen probably out, TE Desmond Clark, who is coming off a career season, could be a fantasy factor. … Two Bear IDPs worth watching this Sunday: LBs Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs, both of whom figure to be motivated to the max in a showdown with San Diego’s Shawne Merriman, also widely considered the league’s best linebacker, if not the best. Further firing up the Bears’ LB duo is the fact they will be facing last year’s No. 1 scoring offense in the Chargers. Urlacher, who didn’t have any sacks last season, is hoping to be involved a lot more in pass-rush situations this season.
Detroit— Assuming the Lions will put up fireworks in the passing game? Well, consider that the Raiders allowed the fewest passing yards per game last season and had the third-best interception rate. They also had the sixth-best sack percentage, and the Lions had major protection problems. If you have WR Calvin Johnson, for instance, it no doubt will be very tempting to jam him into your lineup right away, but you might consider other options if there are better matchups on your roster. Johnson has been mainly a decoy in the preseason, though the Lions are expected to go to him a lot. It just might not be more than a few times in Week One.
Green Bay — All signs point toward rookie Brandon Jackson being the No. 1 RB this Sunday when the Pack squares off against the Eagles, although Vernand Morency (knee) hasn’t been ruled out at this writing. Whoever is entrusted with toting the lumber for Green Bay could be helped by the fact Philly’s run defense was ranked 26th in the league last season, giving up 136.4 yards per game. … The Packers remain optimistic that No. 1 WR Donald Driver, who has been recovering from a foot sprain suffered Aug. 23, will be good to go against the Eagles. Driver had five catches for 50 yards in Green Bay’s loss to the Eagles in Week Four last season.
Minnesota — The busiest skill-position players early this season are expected to be RBs Chester Taylor and Adrian Peterson — not only as runners but also as receivers. With QB Tarvaris Jackson not expected to carry the team, and coming off a preseason in which he did not throw a lot, expect a number of receptions to go to Taylor and Peterson. In addition, naturally, they’ll be allowed to run as well against a Falcons front seven that has undergone some remodeling and is injury-bitten somewhat.
NFC South
Atlanta — QB Joey Harrington had a solid preseason replacing Michael Vick as the starter and appears to have picked up Bobby Petrino’s spread offense quite well, but he’s not fantasy starting material at this point. … RB Warrick Dunn will start in Week One, but expect a heavy dose of Jerious Norwood. Neither is a good play this week against a Vikings defense that ranked No. 1 stopping the run last season. … TE Alge Crumpler appears to have shaken off a sore knee that sidelined him for a few weeks in training camp. He is the Falcons’ only must-start fantasy player each week. … WR Michael Jenkins had an impressive preseason working out of the slot and is probably the Falcons’ top fantasy threat at the WR position. WR Joe Horn is Atlanta’s most sure-handed receiver, but he won’t offer many yards after the catch. Roddy White and Laurent Robinson, an impressive rookie with blazing speed, are worth keeping an eye on this season, but they should be stored on your bench for now.
Carolina — Let’s settle the great DeShaun Foster or DeAngelo Williams debate. Foster will start this week and is the better fantasy play. Head coach John Fox is loyal to his veterans, and Foster will get the bulk of the carries against a porous Rams run defense. Williams is also a decent option this week, even though he’ll be coming off the bench. Williams carried 20 times for 114 yards vs. the Rams in Week 11 last season. … WR Steve Smith remains the Panthers’ best fantasy option. He had four catches for 90 yards and a touchdown against St. Louis last season and figures to get plenty of balls thrown his way again as QB Jake Delhomme’s only trusted target. Dwayne Jarrett, Keary Colbert and Drew Carter will share duties as the No. 2 receiver in Charlotte, and none will get enough work to warrant starting this week. … Delhomme is no longer a must-start quarterback every week. He had an inconsistent preseason and failed to put fantasy owners’ minds at ease that his troubles from last season were behind him. Keep him on the bench this week because the Panthers are bound to keep the ball on the ground.
New Orleans — If you have a Saints skill-position player on your fantasy team, this is the week to start them. Start ‘em all. QB Drew Brees looked better than ever (and that’s saying something for the MVP runner-up from a year ago) in the preseason, and he should pick apart the Colts’ two new starting cornerbacks. … Starting WRs Marques Colston and Devery Henderson will be going against first-time starting CBs Marlin Jackson and Kelvin Hayden. Jackson and Hayden don’t have the speed to keep up with Henderson, and they lack the strength to corral Colston. … RBs Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush are must-start fantasy players every week, and they could run wild this week vs. a Colts defense that ranked 32nd stopping the run last season and lost run-stuffing DT Anthony McFarland to a season-ending knee injury. Look for McAllister to handle most of the carries on first and second down and at the goal line. Bush will still be very active in the passing game and should get a few more carries this season. … TE Eric Johnson, who could emerge as a star in the Saints’ TE-friendly offense, is a worthy starter this week vs. the Colts.
Tampa Bay — QB Jeff Garcia isn’t a fantasy starter just yet, but keep an eye on him down the road. Garcia has enough weapons to throw to, and he seems tailor made to excel in Jon Gruden’s offense. … RB Cadillac Williams is expected to bounce back from a sophomore slump because of the presence of Garcia and because he’ll be running behind an improved offensive line. He’s a good play this week vs. a Seahawks defense that ranked 22nd vs. the run a year ago. … WR Joey Galloway is the undisputed No. 1 receiver in Tampa and the only safe play in the WR corps this week. The No. 2 WR job is still up for grabs between David Boston, Ike Hilliard and Maurice Stovall. … TE Alex Smith (ankle) is banged up and not a good play this week, and we’ll have to wait and see what TE Jerramy Stevens’ role is in the offense.
NFC West
Arizona — After averaging 30 points a game in their two victories over division-rival San Francisco last season, the Cardinals could be a good bet to finish the first week of the regular season on a fantasy high Monday night on the road against the Niners. San Francisco’s defense didn’t mount much of a pass rush at all in the preseason, which could help Cardinals QB Matt Leinart connect frequently with his top two targets, WRs Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. … In last year’s opener vs. the Niners, Fitzgerald had nine catches for 133 yards, while Boldin had four catches for 62 yards and a score. In the Cards’ 26-20 victory over the Niners in Week 16, Fitzgerald caught four passes for 93 yards and a score, while Boldin contributed four catches for 64 yards. … RB Edgerrin James, who in theory figures to be the Cardinals’ top fantasy weapon taking into account the team’s commitment to more of a run-oriented attack, played decently vs. the Niners last season. In Week One, he had 73 yards rushing and a TD, and in Week 16, he had 105 yards rushing on 29 carries.
St. Louis — After barely being used in the preseason, look for RB Steven Jackson to come out of the gate with fire in his nostrils this Sunday against a Carolina defense that totally put the clamps on the Rams last season in their 15-0 shutout victory in Week 11. … Although he says his surgically repaired knee is far from being 100 percent, Rams veteran WR Torry Holt still expects to put up his typically strong fantasy numbers this season. Holt, Isaac Bruce and newcomer Drew Bennett could benefit from going up against a Panthers secondary that is vulnerable at the safety positions.
San Francisco — Fantasy heavyweight Frank Gore should be bursting with energy after being held out of the entire preseason with a broken right hand. Gore could have played in the final preseason game but was sidelined for precautionary measures. Gore did well against Arizona, the Niners’ Week One opponent, last season, scoring a pair of rushing TDs in each game in addition to accumulating a combined 118 yards receiving on 12 catches … TE Vernon Davis is hoping his regular-season debut in 2007 will be as productive as his NFL debut as a rookie last season. On his first NFL touch, Davis turned a short pass from QB Alex Smith into a 31-yard TD vs. the Cardinals. With the Niners designing numerous plays around his freakishly athletic talents, many predict Davis could in store for a breakthrough season. … New Niners No. 1 WR Darrell Jackson’s practice time was limited early in the week because of a hamstring injury, but he is expected to be ready to go Monday night for the opener. Jackson had TD catches in each of his games last season against the Cardinals.
Seattle — Looking for a reason to be optimistic about the fantasy potential of QB Matt Hasselbeck and RB Shaun Alexander, who missed a combined 10 games last year due to injury? Look no further than Pro Bowl OLT Walter Jones, who practiced for the first time since Aug. 10 on Wednesday and says the shoulder he nicked in the preseason opener vs. San Diego is feeling much better. A healthy Jones bodes well for the entire Seattle offense. … Alexander will be looking to pick up where he left off last season, when he scored four rushing TDs in the last three games, including one in the regular-season finale vs. Tampa Bay, the Seahawks’ opening-week opponents. In that game vs. the Bucs, Alexander rushed 28 times for 92 yards. … Although WR D.J. Hackett appeared to be working more with the first offense in practice this week, don’t rule out the possibility of him sharing more than a little playing time in the opener vs. Tampa Bay with Nate Burleson, who steadily came on as the preseason progressed. Hackett had a nice outing (four catches for 63 yards and a TD) in the Seahawks’ victory over Tampa Bay in Week 17 last season.
Sept. 5, 2007
AFC East
Buffalo — Partly due to shoddy O-line play, rookie RB Marshawn Lynch had a dismal preseason. But don’t expect the Bills to abandon the run against the Broncos. Denver has a re-tooled front seven that has had a particularly tough time adjusting to new defensive coordinator Jim Bates’ system. … WR Lee Evans is primed for a big year, but the Broncos’ CB tandem of Dre’ Bly and Champ Bailey will make life difficult for him. … Denver’s defensive ends are far more proficient pass rushers than they are run stuffers, and could force QB J.P. Losman into making the kinds of poor decisions that have plagued his career.
Miami — Cam Cameron loves utilizing his tight ends, but you might want to keep David Martin on the bench against the Redskins. Washington boasts one of the best safety tandems in the league, and Martin could find the going tough down the middle. … Washington notched an NFL-low 19 sacks in 2006, and the pass rush has looked equally anemic in the preseason, meaning QB Trent Green should have adequate time to throw. Miami’s O-line is certainly a beleaguered bunch, but they couldn’t have asked for a better matchup than the Skins. … Washington was 27th against the run a season ago, and with OLB Marcus Washington questionable with a bum shoulder, RB Ronnie Brown should have a solid game as a runner and a receiver — especially for leagues that award points for receptions.
New England — All everyone wants to talk about in New England are the marquee WR additions, but RB Laurence Maroney is poised for a big game against the Jets. The Pats’ O-line is more efficient run-blocking than pass-protecting, and the Jets’ undersized front seven has had its share of problems in the preseason. … The verdict on the daily saga that is Randy Moss’ hamstring status is that Moss should be fine for Sunday. However, because the Patriots have such good depth at the position and the Jets’ secondary is unquestionably their defensive strength, you might want to wait a week to insert Moss into your lineup.
New York Jets — The calf injury that has kept RB Thomas Jones sidelined throughout the majority of the preseason looks to be completely healed, but our Jets sources have indicated that Mangini is leaning toward splitting the Week One carries equally between Jones and Leon Washington. … Recently appointed Jets offensive co-captain Laveranues Coles has the speed to hurt a Patriots secondary searching for cohesion after a whirlwind preseason. Coles caught six balls for 100 yards and a touchdown in the first meeting between the teams last year.
AFC North
Baltimore — Consider starting QB Steve McNair in bigger leagues. McNair attempted 74 passes vs. Cincinnati a season ago, proof the Ravens sought to go after one of the league’s weakest secondaries. The Bengals again appear vulnerable in the back seven, and the defense does not muster a consistent pass rush. … WR Mark Clayton (ankle) will play in Week One and could be a nice play in deeper leagues or leagues that start three wide receivers. So could Derrick Mason, whose best game from a Fantasy perspective last season came at Cincinnati. … The Ravens rushed for 218 yards vs. Cincinnati a season ago, which is good news for those contemplating starting RB Willis McGahee.
Cincinnati — WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh scored in both matchups with the Ravens a season ago and comes highly recommended in Week One. So does WR Chad Johnson, who caught 8-91-0 at home vs. Baltimore last season. Few receivers have fared as well vs. the Ravens’ secondary as Houshmandzadeh and Johnson. … RB Rudi Johnson received only 34 total carries vs. Baltimore in 2006, but he’s a good bet to get plenty of work in the opener, as the Bengals do not have a playmaking, complementary back with Chris Perry on the PUP list and Kenny Irons out for the season.
Cleveland — QB Charlie Frye will get the start vs. Pittsburgh, but he may only have the job for the short term. Leave him on the bench — or on the waiver wire — unless he proves he’s significantly improved after throwing only 10 TD passes in 2006. His play in the preseason didn’t turn a lot of heads. … WR Braylon Edwards is a sleeper perhaps worth considering in Week One. Edwards caught 11-223-1 vs. Pittsburgh a season ago. The emotional Edwards matches up well with a Steelers secondary that lacks a shutdown cornerback. … Deciding whether to start RB Jamal Lewis vs. Pittsburgh? Consider this: Lewis racked up 143 yards and two touchdowns in two starts vs. Pittsburgh last season. However, while the Browns racked up 99 rushing yards vs. the Steelers in the first matchup between the clubs a season ago, the Steelers responded by holding Cleveland to 18 yards in the rematch.
Pittsburgh — RB Willie Parker rolled up 223 yards and a touchdown on 32 carries in his last start vs. Cleveland. The Browns have long struggled with the Steelers’ physical offense, so make sure Parker is in your Week One lineup. Also, make sure to work WR Santonio Holmes into the lineup. Holmes became a bigger part of the offense as his rookie season progressed. … Fast fact: WR Hines Ward didn’t catch a TD pass after Week 10 in 2006. … QB Ben Roethlisberger threw at least one TD pass in 11 of his final 12 starts last season. Offensive coordinator Bruce Arians will give him more freedom this season, a development that bears watching and one that could help him throw 20 TD passes for the first time.
AFC South
Houston — No team scored more points in the preseason than Houston, and it may be time for Fantasy owners to start keeping an eye on Texans skill-position players other than WR Andre Johnson. QB Matt Schaub appears at home in Gary Kubiak’s offense, and rookie WR Jacoby Jones was a smash hit in the preseason. Kevin Walter, not Jones, will start Week One, but Jones is the better fantasy football prospect. … RB Ahman Green might merit a start against a Chiefs defense that will be without DE Jared Allen (suspension). So could TE Owen Daniels, who has a good matchup against the Chiefs’ linebackers and secondary.
Tennessee — QB Vince Young is far from a must-start in Week One. Young struggled vs. the Jaguars last season, completing only 23-of-51 passes. What’s more, the Jags held Young to 18 yards rushing. Expect Jacksonville to try and make Young win the game with his arm, a strategy that figures to help fantasy football owners starting TE Bo Scaife, who’s one of Young’s favorite targets. Other than Scaife, WR Eric Moulds is the only other Titans pass catcher who merits consideration in Week One. … RB LenDale White figures to start in Week One, but Chris Brown also figures to get work, and both backs have their work cut out for them against a tough Jacksonville run defense.
Indianapolis — QB Peyton Manning, WR Marvin Harrison and WR Reggie Wayne are must-start fantasy players every week, but especially in their opener against the Saints. New Orleans’ defense, particularly the secondary, remains the team’s weakness. … RB Joseph Addai will no longer be sharing carries with Dominic Rhodes, which means Addai now is a must-start fantasy player every week. With Harrison and Wayne spreading out the Saints’ defense, the middle of the field should open up for Addai, who will get a heavy workload with an inexperienced crop of backups in the backfield. … Similarly, with all of the attention being paid to Harrison and Wayne, TE Dallas Clark could have a big game vs. New Orleans’ linebackers, who are solid tacklers but are not strong in coverage.
Jacksonville — QB David Garrard is a solid option in larger leagues vs. the Titans this week. In two starts vs. the Titans last season, Garrard threw for four TD passes and 410 yards. But he did throw three interceptions. Garrard has added value because he is a threat to run. … The Jaguars’ WR corps remains a mess. If you must play a Jacksonville receiver, go with Matt Jones. After a slow start last season with Byron Leftwich under center, Jones posted two 100-yard receiving games and all four of his TD catches in the final 10 games with Garrard as the starter. … Both Jacksonville running backs, Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew, are solid options this week against a Titans defense that ranked 30th stopping the run last season. Taylor remains the starter and will get the bulk of the work between the 20s. But new offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter also plans to find plenty of touches for Jones-Drew, who is a threat to score every time he touches the ball. … FB Greg Jones is expected to handle many of the short-yardage and goal-line carries. … Koetter plans to use the TE position more this season, which could make Marcedes Lewis a decent starting option this season.
AFC West
Denver — There shouldn’t be any concerns over whether RB Travis Henry is ready to go for the season opener. The sprained knee he suffered in the preseason was considered mild, and he is expected to be 100 percent against the Bills, who allowed at least 183 yards on the ground on five occasions last season, when they ranked 28th vs. the run. Buffalo’s defense also lost starting LBs London Fletcher and Takeo Spikes in the offseason and lack bulk on the interior. … WRs Javon Walker and Brandon Marshall, as well as QB Jay Cutler, should see some success against a revamped CB lot that lost Nate Clements in free agency and hasn’t really stood out. … The Broncos’ defense has been slow to catch on to the new system installed by defensive coordinator Jim Bates, but it’s still a good start this week against the Bills’ offense.
Kansas City — We’re not suggesting keeping him out of your starting lineup, but you should know that Chiefs head coach Herman Edwards suggested earlier this week that we shouldn’t be expecting a heavy workload from star RB Larry Johnson, who is still working his way into playing shape following a 25-day holdout. Against the Texans, backup Michael Bennett could see a fair amount of work, but it shouldn’t be long before Johnson’s leash is extended. … The Chiefs brought in six kickers this week for tryouts, as rookie Justin Medlock continues to struggle.
Oakland — The Raiders continue to play coy in regard to who will be starting at quarterback vs. Detroit on Sunday, but we’ve been hearing for weeks now that it would be a real surprise if it’s not Daunte Culpepper, who brings a big-play element to Lane Kiffin’s offense that Josh McCown doesn’t provide. Culpepper’s pocket awareness and the Raiders’ blocking need to improve, however, before you should consider adding Culpepper to your fantasy roster, let alone finding a spot for him in your lineup. … Kiffin’s scheme involves an increased emphasis of throwing to the backs and tight ends, which should help RB LaMont Jordan’s stock rise. Jordan caught 70 passes in 14 games in 2005 and was running hard at the end of the preseason. He won’t have much competition with Dominic Rhodes suspended the first four games. … It’s also worth keeping tabs on rookie TE Zach Miller, who earned a starting role in the preseason and could present some mismatch problems. Culpepper had a good rapport with his tight ends in Minnesota.
San Diego — With Eric Parker out for at least the first month of the season, it’ll be a combination of rookie Craig Davis and Malcom Floyd at the WR position opposite Vincent Jackson. Davis has looked smooth thus far and adds a much-needed speed element to the WR corps. Floyd’s size and athleticism make him a good red-zone threat, and three of his 15 receptions last season went for six points. … The Chargers’ defense, especially the pass rush, sparked by OLBs Shawne Merriman and Shaun Phillips, could have a productive day against Bears QB Rex Grossman, who commits turnovers in bunches and had trouble holding on to the football in the preseason.
NFC East
Dallas — WR Terrell Owens loves to play against the Giants. Owens has 35 receptions for 492 yards with five TDs in six career games against them. Twenty-four of those catches have gone for first downs. Last season, Owens had 14 receptions for 182 yards with one TD vs. the Giants. … Quick: Name the team that handled Tony Romo the best last season. Answer: The Giants. In two games against them — one, we should note, was a relief performance, plus his first true NFL action — Romo had flashes of brilliance but struggled overall, going 34-of-59 for 484 yards (not bad for six quarters of action) but only two TD passes and five interceptions (quite bad for six quarters). Though the Giants’ secondary has its share of questions, you might want to think about other QB possibilities.
N.Y. Giants — The Giants ran the ball well in the preseason, gaining 5.1 yards a clip, and the Cowboys have struggled to stop Tiki Barber in recent years. Brandon Jacobs is a different animal, but he too could have a nice game. Though he was used sparingly against the Cowboys last season, he gained 69 yards and a touchdown on 15 rushes and had two receptions for 52 yards in the second matchup. Jacobs rates as a B-plus start against a defense that has looked good in the preseason but also hasn’t shown everything and might need a game or two to get ironed out. One more fun statistic: Forty-seven of Jacobs’ 96 carries last season went to the right, and seven of his nine TDs were to that side. Dallas either will be starting Greg Ellis, who has missed the entire preseason with injury, or rookie Anthony Spencer, who’s still making the transition to linebacker from defensive end, on the strong side, which most often will be to the offense’s right. Also, seven of Jacobs’ 11 receptions last season went to the right.
Philadelphia — Andy Reid typically has had offensive success against his old Packers team, so there’s no reason to sit any of the Big Three: QB Donovan McNabb, RB Brian Westbrook or WR Reggie Brown, who is ready to join the big boys despite a quiet preseason. The questions come when you talk about TE L.J. Smith, who likely will play but could be limited; he’s probably a guy you want to sit on Sunday. The other interesting name is WR Kevin Curtis, who could be a frequent target. The strength of the Packers’ secondary is the cornerbacks, but Curtis is quick and sure enough to work well underneath vs. zones and catch 6-8 passes.
Washington— After last season’s 31st-ranked effort, the Redskins' defense went from fantasy darlings to duds in short order. They are expected to get back to their top-10 marks of previous seasons with increased speed and depth, especially in the secondary, on that side of the ball. And Week One provides a great opportunity for the “D” to flex its muscle. Trent Green and the Dolphins’ offense are a serious work in progress, with question marks at perhaps every spot but receiver. And given that the Redskins might have, man for man, the best secondary in the NFL, expect the defense to have very good success in their first attempt to rehabilitate its value.
NFC North
Chicago — We’re hearing it’s real unlikely Bears rookie TE Greg Olsen, who sprained his left knee in the preseason finale, will be able to play this Sunday vs. the Chargers. With Olsen probably out, TE Desmond Clark, who is coming off a career season, could be a fantasy factor. … Two Bear IDPs worth watching this Sunday: LBs Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs, both of whom figure to be motivated to the max in a showdown with San Diego’s Shawne Merriman, also widely considered the league’s best linebacker, if not the best. Further firing up the Bears’ LB duo is the fact they will be facing last year’s No. 1 scoring offense in the Chargers. Urlacher, who didn’t have any sacks last season, is hoping to be involved a lot more in pass-rush situations this season.
Detroit— Assuming the Lions will put up fireworks in the passing game? Well, consider that the Raiders allowed the fewest passing yards per game last season and had the third-best interception rate. They also had the sixth-best sack percentage, and the Lions had major protection problems. If you have WR Calvin Johnson, for instance, it no doubt will be very tempting to jam him into your lineup right away, but you might consider other options if there are better matchups on your roster. Johnson has been mainly a decoy in the preseason, though the Lions are expected to go to him a lot. It just might not be more than a few times in Week One.
Green Bay — All signs point toward rookie Brandon Jackson being the No. 1 RB this Sunday when the Pack squares off against the Eagles, although Vernand Morency (knee) hasn’t been ruled out at this writing. Whoever is entrusted with toting the lumber for Green Bay could be helped by the fact Philly’s run defense was ranked 26th in the league last season, giving up 136.4 yards per game. … The Packers remain optimistic that No. 1 WR Donald Driver, who has been recovering from a foot sprain suffered Aug. 23, will be good to go against the Eagles. Driver had five catches for 50 yards in Green Bay’s loss to the Eagles in Week Four last season.
Minnesota — The busiest skill-position players early this season are expected to be RBs Chester Taylor and Adrian Peterson — not only as runners but also as receivers. With QB Tarvaris Jackson not expected to carry the team, and coming off a preseason in which he did not throw a lot, expect a number of receptions to go to Taylor and Peterson. In addition, naturally, they’ll be allowed to run as well against a Falcons front seven that has undergone some remodeling and is injury-bitten somewhat.
NFC South
Atlanta — QB Joey Harrington had a solid preseason replacing Michael Vick as the starter and appears to have picked up Bobby Petrino’s spread offense quite well, but he’s not fantasy starting material at this point. … RB Warrick Dunn will start in Week One, but expect a heavy dose of Jerious Norwood. Neither is a good play this week against a Vikings defense that ranked No. 1 stopping the run last season. … TE Alge Crumpler appears to have shaken off a sore knee that sidelined him for a few weeks in training camp. He is the Falcons’ only must-start fantasy player each week. … WR Michael Jenkins had an impressive preseason working out of the slot and is probably the Falcons’ top fantasy threat at the WR position. WR Joe Horn is Atlanta’s most sure-handed receiver, but he won’t offer many yards after the catch. Roddy White and Laurent Robinson, an impressive rookie with blazing speed, are worth keeping an eye on this season, but they should be stored on your bench for now.
Carolina — Let’s settle the great DeShaun Foster or DeAngelo Williams debate. Foster will start this week and is the better fantasy play. Head coach John Fox is loyal to his veterans, and Foster will get the bulk of the carries against a porous Rams run defense. Williams is also a decent option this week, even though he’ll be coming off the bench. Williams carried 20 times for 114 yards vs. the Rams in Week 11 last season. … WR Steve Smith remains the Panthers’ best fantasy option. He had four catches for 90 yards and a touchdown against St. Louis last season and figures to get plenty of balls thrown his way again as QB Jake Delhomme’s only trusted target. Dwayne Jarrett, Keary Colbert and Drew Carter will share duties as the No. 2 receiver in Charlotte, and none will get enough work to warrant starting this week. … Delhomme is no longer a must-start quarterback every week. He had an inconsistent preseason and failed to put fantasy owners’ minds at ease that his troubles from last season were behind him. Keep him on the bench this week because the Panthers are bound to keep the ball on the ground.
New Orleans — If you have a Saints skill-position player on your fantasy team, this is the week to start them. Start ‘em all. QB Drew Brees looked better than ever (and that’s saying something for the MVP runner-up from a year ago) in the preseason, and he should pick apart the Colts’ two new starting cornerbacks. … Starting WRs Marques Colston and Devery Henderson will be going against first-time starting CBs Marlin Jackson and Kelvin Hayden. Jackson and Hayden don’t have the speed to keep up with Henderson, and they lack the strength to corral Colston. … RBs Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush are must-start fantasy players every week, and they could run wild this week vs. a Colts defense that ranked 32nd stopping the run last season and lost run-stuffing DT Anthony McFarland to a season-ending knee injury. Look for McAllister to handle most of the carries on first and second down and at the goal line. Bush will still be very active in the passing game and should get a few more carries this season. … TE Eric Johnson, who could emerge as a star in the Saints’ TE-friendly offense, is a worthy starter this week vs. the Colts.
Tampa Bay — QB Jeff Garcia isn’t a fantasy starter just yet, but keep an eye on him down the road. Garcia has enough weapons to throw to, and he seems tailor made to excel in Jon Gruden’s offense. … RB Cadillac Williams is expected to bounce back from a sophomore slump because of the presence of Garcia and because he’ll be running behind an improved offensive line. He’s a good play this week vs. a Seahawks defense that ranked 22nd vs. the run a year ago. … WR Joey Galloway is the undisputed No. 1 receiver in Tampa and the only safe play in the WR corps this week. The No. 2 WR job is still up for grabs between David Boston, Ike Hilliard and Maurice Stovall. … TE Alex Smith (ankle) is banged up and not a good play this week, and we’ll have to wait and see what TE Jerramy Stevens’ role is in the offense.
NFC West
Arizona — After averaging 30 points a game in their two victories over division-rival San Francisco last season, the Cardinals could be a good bet to finish the first week of the regular season on a fantasy high Monday night on the road against the Niners. San Francisco’s defense didn’t mount much of a pass rush at all in the preseason, which could help Cardinals QB Matt Leinart connect frequently with his top two targets, WRs Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. … In last year’s opener vs. the Niners, Fitzgerald had nine catches for 133 yards, while Boldin had four catches for 62 yards and a score. In the Cards’ 26-20 victory over the Niners in Week 16, Fitzgerald caught four passes for 93 yards and a score, while Boldin contributed four catches for 64 yards. … RB Edgerrin James, who in theory figures to be the Cardinals’ top fantasy weapon taking into account the team’s commitment to more of a run-oriented attack, played decently vs. the Niners last season. In Week One, he had 73 yards rushing and a TD, and in Week 16, he had 105 yards rushing on 29 carries.
St. Louis — After barely being used in the preseason, look for RB Steven Jackson to come out of the gate with fire in his nostrils this Sunday against a Carolina defense that totally put the clamps on the Rams last season in their 15-0 shutout victory in Week 11. … Although he says his surgically repaired knee is far from being 100 percent, Rams veteran WR Torry Holt still expects to put up his typically strong fantasy numbers this season. Holt, Isaac Bruce and newcomer Drew Bennett could benefit from going up against a Panthers secondary that is vulnerable at the safety positions.
San Francisco — Fantasy heavyweight Frank Gore should be bursting with energy after being held out of the entire preseason with a broken right hand. Gore could have played in the final preseason game but was sidelined for precautionary measures. Gore did well against Arizona, the Niners’ Week One opponent, last season, scoring a pair of rushing TDs in each game in addition to accumulating a combined 118 yards receiving on 12 catches … TE Vernon Davis is hoping his regular-season debut in 2007 will be as productive as his NFL debut as a rookie last season. On his first NFL touch, Davis turned a short pass from QB Alex Smith into a 31-yard TD vs. the Cardinals. With the Niners designing numerous plays around his freakishly athletic talents, many predict Davis could in store for a breakthrough season. … New Niners No. 1 WR Darrell Jackson’s practice time was limited early in the week because of a hamstring injury, but he is expected to be ready to go Monday night for the opener. Jackson had TD catches in each of his games last season against the Cardinals.
Seattle — Looking for a reason to be optimistic about the fantasy potential of QB Matt Hasselbeck and RB Shaun Alexander, who missed a combined 10 games last year due to injury? Look no further than Pro Bowl OLT Walter Jones, who practiced for the first time since Aug. 10 on Wednesday and says the shoulder he nicked in the preseason opener vs. San Diego is feeling much better. A healthy Jones bodes well for the entire Seattle offense. … Alexander will be looking to pick up where he left off last season, when he scored four rushing TDs in the last three games, including one in the regular-season finale vs. Tampa Bay, the Seahawks’ opening-week opponents. In that game vs. the Bucs, Alexander rushed 28 times for 92 yards. … Although WR D.J. Hackett appeared to be working more with the first offense in practice this week, don’t rule out the possibility of him sharing more than a little playing time in the opener vs. Tampa Bay with Nate Burleson, who steadily came on as the preseason progressed. Hackett had a nice outing (four catches for 63 yards and a TD) in the Seahawks’ victory over Tampa Bay in Week 17 last season.
