Weekly Projections (1 Viewer)

[lookatthepatterns]

This was my 1st season using footballguys and I have been very impressed with how much content the site has. The amount of weekly content subscribers get is second to none. However, the most important feature, which are the weekly projections, have been very disappointing this season. Numerous times I have trusted their projections and time after time they miss. They have had a couple of bright spots, like Kolby Smith in his 1st start, but other than that its been the same old story. IMO this site takes the safe route and always ranks the studs on top of their lists. Just like this week with Brady. He was playing in bad weather which was well known to everyone, however is was still ranked #1 this week for some reason. Not to mention the rankings of the players in the blizzard in Cleveland. I am not saying I would do a better job but I dont charge people money for my projections. If the site vastly improves this feature it would be the best fantasy football site bar none.

 

[Lord Lucan]

If the site vastly improves this feature it would be the best fantasy football site bar none.

If the site doesn't vastly improve this feature, then how many fantasy football sites will it lag behind in your opinion?

 

[Lord Lucan]

As an aside, the projections have frequently taken a bashing this season (before the games were played!) for ranking unproven players higher than proven FF stars based on match-ups.

 

[Raider Nation]

As an aside, the projections have frequently taken a bashing this season (before the games were played!) for ranking unproven players higher than proven FF stars based on match-ups.

Also, let's say they ranked Brady #14 this week due to the weather, then he throws for 300 yards & 4 TDs as usual.Think anyone would come here and be critical after that? Making these rankings is a no-win proposition.

 

[thayman]

As an aside, the projections have frequently taken a bashing this season (before the games were played!) for ranking unproven players higher than proven FF stars based on match-ups.

Also, let's say they ranked Brady #14 this week due to the weather, then he throws for 300 yards & 4 TDs as usual.Think anyone would come here and be critical after that? Making these rankings is a no-win proposition.

There have been some down points to the rankings this year. But some awesome calls as well.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

This was my 1st season using footballguys and I have been very impressed with how much content the site has. The amount of weekly content subscribers get is second to none. However, the most important feature, which are the weekly projections, have been very disappointing this season. Numerous times I have trusted their projections and time after time they miss. They have had a couple of bright spots, like Kolby Smith in his 1st start, but other than that its been the same old story. IMO this site takes the safe route and always ranks the studs on top of their lists. Just like this week with Brady. He was playing in bad weather which was well known to everyone, however is was still ranked #1 this week for some reason. Not to mention the rankings of the players in the blizzard in Cleveland. I am not saying I would do a better job but I dont charge people money for my projections. If the site vastly improves this feature it would be the best fantasy football site bar none.

This is very simple and something I think I have some experience in with the weekly RB thread. I never never never never never never never NEVER post projections...and the reason is if anyone could actually do it with any kind of consistency they would be the Kings of FF. I ahve talked to numerous site owners all over and they all agree. Now Dodds and crew do a great job, but I think you want to look at the cheatsheets and go from there. You are looking for a player with top10 potential week in and week out...some of those games will be better nad some worse, but no one can tell you exactly what a player will rack up in terms of yards. You just hope that the RB you play touches the ball 20-25 times if you are lucky.

 

[dundeeslugger]

As an aside, the projections have frequently taken a bashing this season (before the games were played!) for ranking unproven players higher than proven FF stars based on match-ups.

Also, let's say they ranked Brady #14 this week due to the weather, then he throws for 300 yards & 4 TDs as usual.Think anyone would come here and be critical after that? Making these rankings is a no-win proposition.

There have been some down points to the rankings this year. But some awesome calls as well.

Well, seriously how much of an idiot can you possibly be to have Gates still a top 2 TE?The guy was on the verge of being doubtful of playing with a bad back.

 

[tomarken]

Just like this week with Brady. He was playing in bad weather which was well known to everyone, however is was still ranked #1 this week for some reason.

This is not accurate.

 

[lookatthepatterns]

Just like this week with Brady. He was playing in bad weather which was well known to everyone, however is was still ranked #1 this week for some reason.

This is not accurate.

He was taken down today last minute. All week he was ranked #1. It shouldn't come down to the last second to drop him in the rankings.

 

[lookatthepatterns]

As an aside, the projections have frequently taken a bashing this season (before the games were played!) for ranking unproven players higher than proven FF stars based on match-ups.

Also, let's say they ranked Brady #14 this week due to the weather, then he throws for 300 yards & 4 TDs as usual.Think anyone would come here and be critical after that? Making these rankings is a no-win proposition.

There have been some down points to the rankings this year. But some awesome calls as well.

Well, seriously how much of an idiot can you possibly be to have Gates still a top 2 TE?The guy was on the verge of being doubtful of playing with a bad back.

I agree. I do see some of us are getting a bit greedy with this site and want everything. Let me say this, this site IS the best fantasy football site. Rotoworld.com is a close 2nd due to their up to the second updates and recommendations which this site doesnt have. However this website has awesome content and everything you can ever want that no website comes close to matching. However, their projections have been off all season and IMO it is the most important feature. I am still baffled about some of the projections during the season and especially this week. I understand it is hard to make projections but we have to admit that they do need some improving.

 

[Raider Nation]

As an aside, the projections have frequently taken a bashing this season (before the games were played!) for ranking unproven players higher than proven FF stars based on match-ups.

Also, let's say they ranked Brady #14 this week due to the weather, then he throws for 300 yards & 4 TDs as usual.Think anyone would come here and be critical after that? Making these rankings is a no-win proposition.

There have been some down points to the rankings this year. But some awesome calls as well.

Well, seriously how much of an idiot can you possibly be to have Gates still a top 2 TE?The guy was on the verge of being doubtful of playing with a bad back.

I agree. I do see some of us are getting a bit greedy with this site and want everything. Let me say this, this site IS the best fantasy football site. Rotoworld.com is a close 2nd due to their up to the second updates and recommendations which this site doesnt have. However this website has awesome content and everything you can ever want that no website comes close to matching. However, their projections have been off all season and IMO it is the most important feature. I am still baffled about some of the projections during the season and especially this week. I understand it is hard to make projections but we have to admit that they do need some improving.

I don't have to admit anything. The weekly projections are roughly reason #455 why FBGs gets my dough every year.At some point, you have to pull up your big boy pants and stop blaming others.

 

[Gopher State]

no doubt the weather made it hard to project the players this week

 

[tonystrong]

I think their projections are mostly based on player's averages udring the season. Hence the .6 or .1.8 touchdowns they project.

I would like to see a feature on a monday or tuesday where they critique thier top 10-15 rankings.

Since they use the same crystal ball that I do to rank their players, I don't really care where they rank a guy. I start who I feel is going to do good. Sometimes, I'm right, sometimes I'm wrong.

 

[Escape Goat]

Real Sharks know when to make adjustments. Take myself for example, who benched Brady in favor of Warner, sat Moss and started Jennings, spot started Stecker over FWP, rolled the dice with Scheffler. These are the adjustments the sharks make to rocket themselves into the Stratosphere of the Great White. We do not rely solely on projections. We rely on an inherent clairvoyance. A little voice that says "Get-Greg-Camarillo-active". So sit back and whine over Joe's projections. Meanwhile I'm uncorking a bottle of DP coasting to another Championship in my big money league.

-The Goat

 

[yeltneb]

If you think the projections are the most important part of the subscription, you're doing it all wrong. They're one of the least important parts IMHO.

 

[FantasyTrader]

This was my 1st season using footballguys and I have been very impressed with how much content the site has. The amount of weekly content subscribers get is second to none. However, the most important feature, which are the weekly projections, have been very disappointing this season. Numerous times I have trusted their projections and time after time they miss. They have had a couple of bright spots, like Kolby Smith in his 1st start, but other than that its been the same old story. IMO this site takes the safe route and always ranks the studs on top of their lists. Just like this week with Brady. He was playing in bad weather which was well known to everyone, however is was still ranked #1 this week for some reason. Not to mention the rankings of the players in the blizzard in Cleveland. I am not saying I would do a better job but I dont charge people money for my projections. If the site vastly improves this feature it would be the best fantasy football site bar none.

This is very simple and something I think I have some experience in with the weekly RB thread. I never never never never never never never NEVER post projections...and the reason is if anyone could actually do it with any kind of consistency they would be the Kings of FF. I ahve talked to numerous site owners all over and they all agree. Now Dodds and crew do a great job, but I think you want to look at the cheatsheets and go from there. You are looking for a player with top10 potential week in and week out...some of those games will be better nad some worse, but no one can tell you exactly what a player will rack up in terms of yards. You just hope that the RB you play touches the ball 20-25 times if you are lucky.

As a small-time site owner myself I can tell you through a great deal of research that even the absolute best rankings you'll ever find will have big-time hindsight gaffs EVERY WEEK. The best you can hope to do for your readers is accurately assess a current player's value, account for strength of matchup, weather, injuries and other intangible factors (such as assessing what people will put up with who pay you). Here's the problem inherent with going with your COMPLETE gut feeling. As somebody previously said, even if you honestly believed Brady was going to tank today - you'd be an idiot to drop him out of the top 5. And the reason you'd be an idiot is not about right or wrong or even about putting out the most accurate rankings you possibly can. It's about dollars and cents. That's the truth that an "expert" will rarely tell you about his rankings. That he's hedging his bets because it's about what the people who are paying him for a service are willing to put up with. Tom Brady faced several factors today indicating he could come up with a poor performance. But this season has also proven that betting against Brady will negative factors present is a losing proposistion. So you hedge your bet. You drop him (but not to the point that you REALLY believe is correct, but to the spot where he could still go goofy for 350 yards and 4 TD's and you wouldn't be inundated with refund requests.

Here's what I've learned in the short time I've been in this business for the purpose of making money. People are infinately happier when you went with the herd and were wrong, than they are when you go out on a limb and are wrong (even if your summary was backed with stats and sound judgement). In fact, I've been thinking about creating TWO sets of rankings in 2008. A politically correct set of rankings and right beside it, adjusted for what I truthfully believe with writeups for justifying any player that deviates more than 10 spots from the first set. That way you get the rankings and projections you pay for but I still get to provide what I REALLY believe.

I don't know, sorry this melted down into a public diary of my ranking struggles. Bottom line, try to appreciate the tough job these guys have. There's only so low they can go with L.T. and only so high they can go with Marcedes Lewis that you and your wallet are willing to put up with. I think one of the biggest problems the info. provider community faces is the attitudes of the average customer and what they are willing to pay for. Outside of the box thinking is not at all appreciated by the average customer - particularly when it ends up being wrong.

 

[jcole76]

Real Sharks know when to make adjustments. Take myself for example, who benched Brady in favor of Warner, sat Moss and started Jennings, spot started Stecker over FWP, rolled the dice with Scheffler. These are the adjustments the sharks make to rocket themselves into the Stratosphere of the Great White. We do not rely solely on projections. We rely on an inherent clairvoyance. A little voice that says "Get-Greg-Camarillo-active". So sit back and whine over Joe's projections. Meanwhile I'm uncorking a bottle of DP coasting to another Championship in my big money league.

-The Goat

Don't be so hard on yourself

 

[tomarken]

Just like this week with Brady. He was playing in bad weather which was well known to everyone, however is was still ranked #1 this week for some reason.

This is not accurate.

He was taken down today last minute. All week he was ranked #1. It shouldn't come down to the last second to drop him in the rankings.

Does it really matter?Oh, and ttmfs:

 

[Johnny Ice]

A little voice that says "Get-Greg-Camarillo-active".

Okay, now you have gone a little too far.

 

[Rogi]

I liked the projections at first but now I go with my gut. I've been much more successful with my gut. Nobody on this planet can accurately predict scoring (sorry Dodds). Football Guys give it an effort and take a weekly bashing for it.

 

[thehornet]

This was my 1st season using footballguys and I have been very impressed with how much content the site has. The amount of weekly content subscribers get is second to none. However, the most important feature, which are the weekly projections, have been very disappointing this season. Numerous times I have trusted their projections and time after time they miss. They have had a couple of bright spots, like Kolby Smith in his 1st start, but other than that its been the same old story. IMO this site takes the safe route and always ranks the studs on top of their lists. Just like this week with Brady. He was playing in bad weather which was well known to everyone, however is was still ranked #1 this week for some reason. Not to mention the rankings of the players in the blizzard in Cleveland. I am not saying I would do a better job but I dont charge people money for my projections. If the site vastly improves this feature it would be the best fantasy football site bar none.

they're not charging for projections, they charge for all of the work they do, week in and week out. Did you really expect to pay 25 bucks and you would secure bragging rights in your office fantasy football league? Cmon man. Do you seriously think that this site should be any more accurate with their predictions because they charge, what $25 bucks? It's the NFL man, crazy things happen every week. projections are just one of many features that this site includes in the pay material. dude, i didnt even by the subscription but i will next year because i am so impressed. also, two things to consider. The best info can be found right here, free of charge on the message boards. And secondly, if you can't figure out who to start on your team wiithout blaming pregame projections then you probably need to learn a little more about the game your playing. Honestly, be real. fantasy football is harder to predict than betting a regular nfl game based on point spreads. it's illogical to disappointed with a complete guess, no matter how knowledegeable the guys that run this site are. cheer up, there is always next year. just my lousy 2 cents.

 

[Judge Smails]

We have to pay to get the rankings, so they are an important element to the service. Nobody's asking Dodds to fill out our lineups. But even though people will make up their own minds, if it's a close call (like me yesterday with Tampa Bay vs. Viking D) then it's natural to give extra weight when you see one ranked 9 slots higher all week, and then 6 by kickoff.

All I want to know, and have repeatedly asked without a response (as have others) is this. Are rankings make purely on computer projections, or are intangibles like weather, coaches quitting, short weeks to prepare, etc factored in? If I know the answer to that, then I have a better basis to make a more sound decision. I'm responsible for my lineup, but I do pay attention to FBG rankings because their resources and data collection abilities are a lot bigger than mine.

I agree with one posters comments that maybe comments are appropriate for the selections.

This is not whining or point to the shirt material. I had Romo and Addai ranked high this week and they tanked. No problem, I had them ranked that high too. It happens - players aren't robots. But what goes into the rankings is an extremely simple question that, as paying members, deserves and answer.

 

[Escape Goat]

Real Sharks know when to make adjustments. Take myself for example, who benched Brady in favor of Warner, sat Moss and started Jennings, spot started Stecker over FWP, rolled the dice with Scheffler. These are the adjustments the sharks make to rocket themselves into the Stratosphere of the Great White. We do not rely solely on projections. We rely on an inherent clairvoyance. A little voice that says "Get-Greg-Camarillo-active". So sit back and whine over Joe's projections. Meanwhile I'm uncorking a bottle of DP coasting to another Championship in my big money league.

-The Goat

Take notes

 

[Warehouse Nasty]

Real Sharks know when to make adjustments. Take myself for example, who benched Brady in favor of Warner, sat Moss and started Jennings, spot started Stecker over FWP, rolled the dice with Scheffler. These are the adjustments the sharks make to rocket themselves into the Stratosphere of the Great White. We do not rely solely on projections. We rely on an inherent clairvoyance. A little voice that says "Get-Greg-Camarillo-active". So sit back and whine over Joe's projections. Meanwhile I'm uncorking a bottle of DP coasting to another Championship in my big money league.

-The Goat

Thanks for the new sig!

 

[ForWhoForWhat]

A little voice that says "Get-Greg-Camarillo-active".

Okay, now you have gone a little too far.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Real Sharks know when to make adjustments. Take myself for example, who benched Brady in favor of Warner, sat Moss and started Jennings, spot started Stecker over FWP, rolled the dice with Scheffler. These are the adjustments the sharks make to rocket themselves into the Stratosphere of the Great White. We do not rely solely on projections. We rely on an inherent clairvoyance. A little voice that says "Get-Greg-Camarillo-active". So sit back and whine over Joe's projections. Meanwhile I'm uncorking a bottle of DP coasting to another Championship in my big money league.

-The Goat

J

 

[mt-wabo]

I liked the projections at first but now I go with my gut. I've been much more successful with my gut. Nobody on this planet can accurately predict scoring (sorry Dodds). Football Guys give it an effort and take a weekly bashing for it.

Im sure your gut would have told you that Owens, Romo, Manning, Wayne and Addai would have their worst games of the year too, Even as a shark you have to roll wiht your studs I could have started a banged up Rotheburger over Brady but still thought Brady would be good for 2 scores, but thats why there is always luck involved with this silly little obsession we have.