What consitutes a "bust" in the NFL? (1 Viewer)

[Sweet Love]

I am watching Michigan Mich. Sta (1990) on ESPN Classic right now and of course as the box scores came across, I saw some familiar names. Rick Mirer shot across the screen, and as a #2 overall, he was an obvious bust where he was drafted at. I then began to think of Drew Blesoe. I don't think he is a HOFer, more of a hall of very good. But considering roughly four people get enshrined each year, is it safe to say that if you are a Top 4 pick in your draft class, that anything less than the Hall of Fame is a disappointment?? It seems pretty harsh (especially for someone like Bledsoe who is pretty close), but what other measurements are there? Also, offensive linemen (for example) are harder to grade and tend not to make it to the Hall as much as other higher profile positions. Should that be taken into account when measuring someone like Jonathan Ogden or Orlando Pace (arguably the two best LTs of their time) if they do not eventually make it to the Hall?

I used Bledsoe as an example, but would welcome other thoughts/examples. I know this has come up in other threads, just not sure if there was one dedicated to evaluating a "bust".

 

[NEUPJ]

If you make it for 5 years in the NFL as a starter, I wouldn't consider them a bust. Not living up to potential and being a bust are two very different stories.

Bledsoe has been in the league for 13 years, multiple pro-bowls, led the Pats to the playoffs numerous times, took them to a Super Bowl one and a half times. No way is he a bust.

 

[Macdaddy_2004]

Reggie Bush

 

[wadegarrett]

Getting elected to the PFHOF gets you a bust.

 

[-jb-]

For every Mirer, there is a Rod Smith. I'm not sure you can say that being a #1-4 pick requires you to be HOF-or-bust.

Ironic...you get a bust in Canton by not being a bust in your career.

 

[-jb-]

Top 4 picks since 1982:

19821	New England	Ken Sims	DE	Texas2	Baltimore	Johnie Cooks	OLB	Mississippi State3	Cleveland	Chip Banks	OLB	Southern California4	Baltimore	Art Schlichter	QB	Ohio State19831	Baltimore	John Elway	QB	Stanford2	L.A. Rams	Eric Dickerson	RB	Southern Methodist3	Seattle	Curt Warner	RB	Penn State4	Denver	Chris Hinton	T	Northwestern19841	New England	Irving Fryar	WR	Nebraska2	Houston	Dean Steinkuhler	T	Nebraska3	N.Y. Giants	Carl Banks	OLB	Michigan State4	Philadelphia	Kenny Jackson	WR	Penn State19851	Buffalo	Bruce Smith	DE	Virginia Tech2	Atlanta	Bill Fralic	G	Pittsburgh3	Houston	Ray Childress	DT	Texas A&M4	Minnesota	Chris Doleman	DE	Pittsburgh1986No #1 listed?2	Atlanta	Tony Casillas	DT	Oklahoma3	Houston	Jim Everett	QB	Purdue4	Indianapolis	Jon Hand	DE	Alabama5	St. Louis	Anthony Bell	OLB	Michigan State19871	Tampa Bay	Vinny Testaverde	QB	Miami2	Indianapolis	Cornelius Bennett	OLB	Alabama3	Houston	Alonzo Highsmith	RB	Miami4	Green Bay	Brent Fullwood	RB	Auburn19881	Atlanta	Aundray Bruce	DE	Auburn2	Kansas City	Neil Smith	DE	Nebraska3	Detroit	Bennie Blades	S	Miami4	Tampa Bay	Paul Gruber	T	Wisconsin19891	Dallas	Troy Aikman	QB	UCLA2	Green Bay	Tony Mandarich	T	Michigan State3	Detroit	Barry Sanders	RB	Oklahoma State4	Kansas City	Derrick Thomas	DE	Alabama19901	Indianapolis	Jeff George	QB	Illinois2	N.Y. Jets	Blair Thomas	RB	Penn State3	Seattle	Cortez Kennedy	DT	Miami4	Tampa Bay	Keith McCants	DE	Alabama19911	Dallas	Russell Maryland	NT	Miami2	Cleveland	Eric Turner	S	UCLA3	Atlanta	Bruce Pickens	CB	Nebraska4	Denver	Mike Croel	OLB	Nebraska19921	Indianapolis	Steve Emtman	DT	Washington2	Indianapolis	Quentin Coryatt	MLB	Texas A&M3	L.A. Rams	Sean Gilbert	DT	Pittsburgh4	Washington	Desmond Howard	WR	Michigan19931	New England	Drew Bledsoe	QB	Washington State2	Seattle	Rick Mirer	QB	Notre Dame3	Phoenix	Garrison Hearst	RB	Georgia4	N.Y. Jets	Marvin Jones	MLB	Florida State19941	Cincinnati	Dan Wilkinson	DT	Ohio State2	Indianapolis	Marshall Faulk	RB	San Diego State3	Washington	Heath Shuler	QB	Tennessee4	New England	Willie McGinest	OLB	Southern California19951	Cincinnati	Ki-Jana Carter	RB	Penn State2	Jacksonville	Tony Boselli	T	Southern California3	Houston	Steve McNair	QB	Alcorn State4	Washington	Michael Westbrook	WR	Colorado19961	N.Y. Jets	Keyshawn Johnson	WR	Southern California2	Jacksonville	Kevin Hardy	OLB	Illinois3	Arizona	Simeon Rice	DE	Illinois4	Baltimore	Jonathan Ogden	T	UCLA19971	St. Louis	Orlando Pace	T	Ohio State2	Oakland	Darrell Russell	DT	Southern California3	Seattle	Shawn Springs	CB	Ohio State4	Baltimore	Peter Boulware	OLB	Florida State19981	Indianapolis	Peyton Manning	QB	Tennessee2	San Diego	Ryan Leaf	QB	Washington State3	Arizona	Andre Wadsworth	DE	Florida State4	Oakland	Charles Woodson	CB	Michigan19991	Cleveland	Tim Couch	QB	Kentucky2	Philadelphia	Donovan McNabb	QB	Syracuse3	Cincinnati	Akili Smith	QB	Oregon4	Indianapolis	Edgerrin James	RB	Miami20001	Cleveland	Courtney Brown	DE	Penn State2	Washington	LaVar Arrington	OLB	Penn State3	Washington	Chris Samuels	T	Alabama4	Cincinnati	Peter Warrick	WR	Florida State20011	Atlanta	Michael Vick	QB	Virginia Tech2	Arizona	Leonard Davis	T	Texas3	Cleveland	Gerard Warren	DT	Florida4	Cincinnati	Justin Smith	DE	Missouri20021	Houston	David Carr	QB	Fresno State2	Carolina	Julius Peppers	DE	North Carolina3	Detroit	Joey Harrington	QB	Oregon4	Buffalo	Mike Williams	T	Texas20031	Cincinnati	Carson Palmer	QB	Southern California2	Detroit	Charles Rogers	WR	Michigan State3	Houston	Andre Johnson	WR	Miami4	N.Y. Jets	Dewayne Robertson	DT	Kentucky20041	San Diego	Eli Manning	QB	Mississippi2	Oakland	Robert Gallery	T	Iowa3	Arizona	Larry Fitzgerald	WR	Pittsburgh4	N.Y. Giants	Philip Rivers	QB	North Carolina State20051	San Francisco	Alex Smith	QB	Utah2	Miami	Ronnie Brown	RB	Auburn3	Cleveland	Braylon Edwards	WR	Michigan4	Chicago	Cedric Benson	RB	Texas

 

[mbuehner]

C cup?

 

[Banger]

There is a HUGE middle ground between being a HOF'er and a bust and it's ridiculous to think that every top 4 pick will be a HOF'er and that they are a bust if they don't make it. A bust IMO is a player that had tremendous expectations (usually due to a high draft position) and fails miserably to live up to them. Is Keyshawn bust because he won't make the Hall? Of course not. Bledsoe a bust? c'mon.

 

[Bri]

As was said, time/length of career.

For example, Jets should have Ferguson to anchor that line for a long time. If he's "done" 2 years from now he's a bust.

A-train is the flavor of the week in a few leagues I play in. He's been labelled "bust" before being out of Chicago and backing up Jones. Then he gets 100 yards in a game. Now he comes in for McGahee and he gets 100(or nearly...whatever). He didn't live up to expectations. He wasn't a longtime franchise back for the Bears. However, he's still playing and when given a chance in "spot duty" he's quite effective. That makes me wonder about the scouts evaluations but he's no bust IMO.

The public doesn't seem to take in poor evaluations of scouts and/or coaches as a reason. I don't know how to consider a guy like Ed McCaffrey. Is he a bust with the Giants and 49ers(right?)and a success in Denver? Staff wrong or was he wrong in NY+SF?

Colston wasn't the top WR so IMO he was evaluated poorly. Kudos to the Saints but the rest of the NFL GMs should be hollerring at their scouting staffs for not doing more homework on him etc.

Similarly, I think we put alot of stock in "our guy" in April. Whether it's Kiper or whomever. I think the bust label inadvertently starts with their evaluation. As a fan we need a RB, they say this guy will be great, and it all begins. We accept that rating as "law" and expect them to meet those expectations.

 

[Sweet Love]

There is a HUGE middle ground between being a HOF'er and a bust and it's ridiculous to think that every top 4 pick will be a HOF'er and that they are a bust if they don't make it. A bust IMO is a player that had tremendous expectations (usually due to a high draft position) and fails miserably to live up to them. Is Keyshawn bust because he won't make the Hall? Of course not. Bledsoe a bust? c'mon.

I was just throwing the Top 4out there as a point of measure, not THE point of measure. I never said Bledsoe was a bust, but I think all #1 overall picks (especially those that are viewed within the league as a unanimous #1 overall pick) are viewed as someone that can be a HOFer unless it is an unusally weak class. If I was the Pats and drafted him #1 overall, I would be happy with what he gave me for his career with my team. I also think we tend to look at where someone was drafted as a measuring stick (which is where I came up with the Top 4). Charlie Batch has had a nice career so far and I would never label him a bust. Is that because he was a third rounder? I think so. If he was a Top 10 selection, we would be viewing his career in a different light. This begs the question, where is the cutoff point in our eyes?

 

[Two Deep]

There is a HUGE middle ground between being a HOF'er and a bust and it's ridiculous to think that every top 4 pick will be a HOF'er and that they are a bust if they don't make it. A bust IMO is a player that had tremendous expectations (usually due to a high draft position) and fails miserably to live up to them. Is Keyshawn bust because he won't make the Hall? Of course not. Bledsoe a bust? c'mon.

aka: Reggie bush

 

[3nOut]

There is a HUGE middle ground between being a HOF'er and a bust and it's ridiculous to think that every top 4 pick will be a HOF'er and that they are a bust if they don't make it. A bust IMO is a player that had tremendous expectations (usually due to a high draft position) and fails miserably to live up to them. Is Keyshawn bust because he won't make the Hall? Of course not. Bledsoe a bust? c'mon.

aka: Reggie bush

Man, what's with all of this Bush hate? What did he do to you or your family personally? Give the kid a break. As a Bush owner (in a keeper league) I drafted him not for this year, but for the years to come. It was a risky investment, knowing that he would not produce much this year. I still believe he has a bright future ahead of him and it is waaaaay too early to call him a bust. But give Bush a few years to prove himself. He is being used as a decoy in many cases and Ds are focusing on him, allowing others to contribute. I really believe that without Bush on the field, many of the other players would not have as good stats as they have, including Brees, McAlllsiter, and Colston. So if you bought into FF hype and wanted him to produce this year then you were mistaken, but blame yourself not him. And get off his case. If you're not a Bush owner, why the hate?

 

[Banger]

There is a HUGE middle ground between being a HOF'er and a bust and it's ridiculous to think that every top 4 pick will be a HOF'er and that they are a bust if they don't make it. A bust IMO is a player that had tremendous expectations (usually due to a high draft position) and fails miserably to live up to them. Is Keyshawn bust because he won't make the Hall? Of course not. Bledsoe a bust? c'mon.

aka: Reggie bush

Agreed if he keeps on his current course but a guy wouldn't be considered a bust after one year....

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Busts:

Charles Rogers

Mike Williams

Joey Harrington (was a bust for the Lions)

Marty Mornighweg

Steve Mariucci (was a bust for the Lions)

Matt Millen

William Ford

Those are what busts are.......you can insert other names that fall into that same category.

 

[Cenobite]

1999 Heisman award winner Ron Dayne has to get some consideration especially given the chances he had to succeed. Even in limited roles (goal line back and short yardage situations) he did not produce at the NFL level.

 

[Banger]

There is a HUGE middle ground between being a HOF'er and a bust and it's ridiculous to think that every top 4 pick will be a HOF'er and that they are a bust if they don't make it. A bust IMO is a player that had tremendous expectations (usually due to a high draft position) and fails miserably to live up to them. Is Keyshawn bust because he won't make the Hall? Of course not. Bledsoe a bust? c'mon.

aka: Reggie bush

Man, what's with all of this Bush hate? What did he do to you or your family personally? Give the kid a break. As a Bush owner (in a keeper league) I drafted him not for this year, but for the years to come. It was a risky investment, knowing that he would not produce much this year. I still believe he has a bright future ahead of him and it is waaaaay too early to call him a bust. But give Bush a few years to prove himself. He is being used as a decoy in many cases and Ds are focusing on him, allowing others to contribute. I really believe that without Bush on the field, many of the other players would not have as good stats as they have, including Brees, McAlllsiter, and Colston. So if you bought into FF hype and wanted him to produce this year then you were mistaken, but blame yourself not him. And get off his case. If you're not a Bush owner, why the hate?

I disagree that Bush was supposed to be a risky investment. All the talk was of a can't miss, highest graded, blah, blah, blah, and projections of between 1300 and 1500 combined yards along with 7-10 tds were routinely given from reputable board posters. To say he has been a disappointment this year with 0 TD's and projected 1,000 yards is an understatement IMO. Yes he will probably get better but any talk of drafting him in the 1st, trading him for LT or the other crazy nonsense can safely be put to bed.

Unfortunately I don't get decoy points in my league.

over

 

[Cenobite]

I disagree that Bush was supposed to be a risky investment. All the talk was of a can't miss, highest graded, blah, blah, blah, and projections of between 1300 and 1500 combined yards along with 7-10 tds were routinely given from reputable board posters. To say he has been a disappointment this year with 0 TD's and projected 1,000 yards is an understatement IMO. Yes he will probably get better but any talk of drafting him in the 1st, trading him for LT or the other crazy nonsense can safely be put to bed.

Unfortunately I don't get decoy points in my league.

over

I definitely made those predictions! The only stat. I think I got right was 60+ receptions. I don't think he is a total bust however. That distinction belongs to L. Jordan and Caddy - their ADP was higher. Bush has more points in my PPR league than both of these guys. Also, I don't think that in keeper leagues you can state with certainty at this time that Bush is a bust.

 

[mwaldo13]

http://www.wcnc.com/news/local/stories/D_I...7c.389f4a0c.jpg

 

[Two Deep]

I disagree that Bush was supposed to be a risky investment. All the talk was of a can't miss, highest graded, blah, blah, blah, and projections of between 1300 and 1500 combined yards along with 7-10 tds were routinely given from reputable board posters. To say he has been a disappointment this year with 0 TD's and projected 1,000 yards is an understatement IMO. Yes he will probably get better but any talk of drafting him in the 1st, trading him for LT or the other crazy nonsense can safely be put to bed.

Unfortunately I don't get decoy points in my league.

over

I definitely made those predictions! The only stat. I think I got right was 60+ receptions. I don't think he is a total bust however. That distinction belongs to L. Jordan and Caddy - their ADP was higher. Bush has more points in my PPR league than both of these guys. Also, I don't think that in keeper leagues you can state with certainty at this time that Bush is a bust.

I don't believe we're talking bust in fantasy but bust in the NFL. My original post was sarcasm but based on all the hype he received coming into the season from NFL scouts and experts, Bush has layed a complete unadulturated egg.